“双本位”国际货币体系的形成与影响
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摘要
本文通过对不同形态国际货币体系进行系统性梳理与考察,指出其演变反映了国际货币对统一性的极大需求,以及货币的社会属性越来越强的趋势。在此基础上分析得到国际货币体系演变的两大规律：第一,国际货币体系形成和演变的核心力量是利益关系及其背后的经济实力,而非汇率安排、贸易体制等制度层面的问题；第二,在国际货币体系演变过程中,政府力量逐渐取代了早期的自然因素,成为决定国际货币体系格局的主导力量。
1971年8月15日,美国宣布停止美元兑换黄金,拯救了美元,拉开了国际货币体系的“黄金非货币化”时代。在这个时代,美元居于整个国际货币体系中的核心地位。美国政府凭借着美元的核心地位,有意识的将美国的国际收支赤字作为美国在国际金融领域“金融搭便车”的工具,用来巩固和扩大美元的霸主地位,确立了美元国际本位货币地位。欧元正式对外流通后,很快成为了美元之外的另一个国际本位货币。从此,国际货币体系进入了美元和欧元两大国际本位货币共同存在、同时运行的“双本位”时代。为获取更大的利益,美元和欧元竞相滥发,导致美元和欧元以及它们的资产持续高速扩张、充斥于全世界,加剧了全球流动性膨胀。
在金本位时代,黄金以很强的可兑换性维护了该体系在其初期的稳定性。但是,作为本位货币的黄金在执行一般等价物的社会职能时,却无法摆脱个别使用价值的束缚。货币在充当一般等价物时,其本质上要求它脱离和任何实际商品的联系,这就注定了黄金只能是货币的一种过渡形式。随着商品经济的发展,金本位就变得越来越不稳定。此外,不同国家间货币安排和储备结构的巨大差异、经济力量和外部利益的不对称、外围的不稳定、资本主义自身的内在矛盾等因素也加剧了这种不稳定性。
金汇兑本位国际货币体系的确立就充分显示了黄金等贵金属有逐渐非货币化的趋势,使国际间的本位货币与非本位货币区别开来。在这一时期,国际货币体系的支配性力量(核心力量)开始消失,导致国际经济关系严重缺乏协调机制,这是该体系不稳定的首要原因。此外,低效率的国际收支调节机制和国际清偿力的严重短缺是该体系不稳定的另外两个重要原因。
布雷顿森林体系的建立结束了此前国际货币体系的混乱局面,将当时的国际货币体系带入了短暂稳定的时期。然而,货币的公器性质与其为私利而进行控制之间的矛盾、储备机制与调节机制的缺陷、以及“特里芬两难”等问题的存在注定了该体系不可能保持长久的稳定。
黄金非货币化以后,国际货币体系不稳定性是从货币的不稳定性开始的。失去黄金限制的美元,无约束的对外滥发,降低了人们对美元的信心,冲击了该体系稳定性的根基。美联储的权责不对称、汇率波动不断加剧、调节渠道有限、国际游资严重冲击、参与权和决策权的不公平性等使得该体系更加不稳定。
上世纪八十年代以来,美国出现“去工业化”和“经济虚拟化”现象,导致了美国经济和美元支柱的虚拟化。欧元诞生之后,很快获得了国际本位货币的地位,并且以超过美元的速度重复着美元的游戏,引发了欧元和欧元区经济支柱的虚拟化。这使得国际货币体系的根基严重虚拟化。货币在其流通范围内的统一性要求是不以人的意志为转移的客观规律,欧元的出现破坏了这种统一性。这又使得当前的“双本位”货币体系也不可能是一种稳定的制度安排。
根据国际货币体系的演变规律和利益关系,新的国际货币体系的确立应充分重视各国的利益、积极发挥市场的作用、有效约束对外流动性的供给、积极维持国际货币环境的稳定。中国强大经济实力的参与和政府的积极推动,使得以经济实力为核心利益关系的未来货币体系的最大可能是美元——欧元——人民币联盟。这种以最有实力的主权货币为核心所形成新的货币体系,可以通过以多打少来约束破坏协议的经济大国,维持国际货币体系的稳定性。
中国强大的实体经济和高额的外汇储备为人民币谋求世界多极货币体系中的一极奠定了基础。当前,中国国内流动性膨胀的压力、人民币升值的预期、新的国际货币体系对人民币的需要、以及中国在维护未来国际货币体系稳定的过程中所肩负的大国责任都使得人民币国际化十分必要。人民币国际化将中国强大实体经济注入到国际货币体系之中,既能够维护国际货币体系稳定性,也可以解决当前中国宏观经济困境,解决中国“大经济”与“小货币”间的矛盾。
This paper systematily cards and studies the international monetary system with different forms, and indicates that its evolution reflects the international monetary's great demand for the unity and monetary's social attributes has been growing stronger and stronger. On this basis, we obtain two laws of the international monetary system's evolution. One is that the core strength of the international monetary system's formation and evolution is the interest relationship and economic strength instead of system issues such as exchange rate arrangements or trading system; the other is that the government forces gradually replaced the earlier natural factors and become the dominant force leading the international monetary system's pattern and involution.
U.S.A declared that it had stoped redeeming dollars for gold on August-15-1971. This action saved U.S.dollar, but opened he international monetary's new times that is "non-monetary gold". In this time, U.S.dollar lived in the core of the international monetary system. U.S.A taked advantage of this opportunity to use U.S.A's balance of payments deficit as its "financial free ride" tool in the international financial field. Under these conditions, U.S.A consolidated and expanded U.S.dollar's dominance, and established the dollar as the international standard currency. Euro quickly became another international standard currency after it circulated. Since then, the international monetary system entered into "double standard" times. In this times, U.S.dollar and Euro co-exist and co-run. To obtain more benefits, U.S.dollar and Euro are over-issued in the way of competition, which cause U.S.dollar, Euro and their assets continuously expand with high speed, and intensify the expansion of global liquidity.
In the gold standard international monetary system, gold depends its strong convertibility to maintain this system stability in the early stage. However, when gold implementation of the general equivalent of the social functions, it could not escape the shackles of individual value. When currency acts as a general equivalent, its nature requests it break away any actual product, which doomed that the gold can only be a transitional form of currency. With the development of commodity economy, this system had become increasingly unstable. In addition, the huge differences in monetary arrangements and the reserves's structure, the asymmetry between economic power and external interests, external instability, its own inherent contradictions of capitalism, and other factors exacerbated this instability.
Gold exchange standard international monetary system's establishment fully displays the gold and other precious metals had the gradual trend of non-monetary, and distinguished the standard currency and non-standard currency. During this period, the international monetary system's dominant force began to disappear, which leaded to a serious lack of coordination mechanism of the international economic system. This defect is the primary cause of instability in the system.
The establishment of the Bretton Woods system ended the chaotic situation of its previous international monetary system, and broughtthe international monetary system into a brief period with stability. But, currency's nature of public tool has serious contradiction with its control for private interests. At the same time, its reserve mechanism and adjustment mechanism had critical flaw, and "Triffin dilemma" phenomenon become more severe with its development. All of these problems determined that the system can not maintain long-term stability.
After the non-monetary gold, the instability of the international monetary system beganning from the currency. When U.S.dollar lost the limit of U.S.A's gold, U.S.dollar began to be issued without any constraint, which reducedpeople's confidence in the dollar and severely impacted the foundation of the stability of the international monetary system.
Since 1980, U.S.A's economy appeared the "de-industrialization" and "economic fictionalization" phenomenon, which led the fictionalization of U.S. economy and U.S.dollar's pillars. Euro quickly obtained the status of the international standard currency after its birth, and repeated U.S.dollar's games with hinger speed than U.S.dollar, which cause the pillar's fictionalization of the euro and the euro-zone economy. What has mentioned above makes the foundation of the international monetary system seriously fictionalizate. The unity of currency in its circulation can not be shifted with men's willpower, but the euro destroyed this unity, which makes the "double standard"montary system can not be a stable institutional arrangement.
According to the evolution law and the interest relation of the international monetary system, we hold that the new international monetary system should fully attach importance to every country's interests, and postively play the role of the market, and effective restraint the external supply of liquidity, and actively maintain the stability of the international monetary environment. The participation of China's powerful economic strength and the government's active promotion will makes the new international monetary system's largest trend is the monetary union of U.S.dollar, Euro and RMB, because it gives the expression of the core interest relation basing on economic strength. The new international monetary system which is based on the most powerful monetary sovereignty can restrain economic power who damage agreement through multi-fight it and maintainits stability.
China's real economy and strong foreign exchange reserves creates a good foundation for RMB to seek a polar in the multi-polar international monetary system. At the present, the press from the excess of liquidity of our country, and the lighten the anticipation of RMB's appreciation, and the new international monetary system need for the RMB, and Chinese powerful state responsibility in maintaining the stability of the new international monetary system make RMB's internationalization be bery necessary. RMB's internationalization makes Chinese powerful real economy injected into the real economy into the international monetary system inject into international monetary system,which not only solve some current puzzledoms of our country's macroeconomic, but also resolve the serious contradiction betweenChinese status of largest economy and the role of small money of RMB.
1971年8月15日,美国宣布停止美元兑换黄金,拯救了美元,拉开了国际货币体系的“黄金非货币化”时代。在这个时代,美元居于整个国际货币体系中的核心地位。美国政府凭借着美元的核心地位,有意识的将美国的国际收支赤字作为美国在国际金融领域“金融搭便车”的工具,用来巩固和扩大美元的霸主地位,确立了美元国际本位货币地位。欧元正式对外流通后,很快成为了美元之外的另一个国际本位货币。从此,国际货币体系进入了美元和欧元两大国际本位货币共同存在、同时运行的“双本位”时代。为获取更大的利益,美元和欧元竞相滥发,导致美元和欧元以及它们的资产持续高速扩张、充斥于全世界,加剧了全球流动性膨胀。
在金本位时代,黄金以很强的可兑换性维护了该体系在其初期的稳定性。但是,作为本位货币的黄金在执行一般等价物的社会职能时,却无法摆脱个别使用价值的束缚。货币在充当一般等价物时,其本质上要求它脱离和任何实际商品的联系,这就注定了黄金只能是货币的一种过渡形式。随着商品经济的发展,金本位就变得越来越不稳定。此外,不同国家间货币安排和储备结构的巨大差异、经济力量和外部利益的不对称、外围的不稳定、资本主义自身的内在矛盾等因素也加剧了这种不稳定性。
金汇兑本位国际货币体系的确立就充分显示了黄金等贵金属有逐渐非货币化的趋势,使国际间的本位货币与非本位货币区别开来。在这一时期,国际货币体系的支配性力量(核心力量)开始消失,导致国际经济关系严重缺乏协调机制,这是该体系不稳定的首要原因。此外,低效率的国际收支调节机制和国际清偿力的严重短缺是该体系不稳定的另外两个重要原因。
布雷顿森林体系的建立结束了此前国际货币体系的混乱局面,将当时的国际货币体系带入了短暂稳定的时期。然而,货币的公器性质与其为私利而进行控制之间的矛盾、储备机制与调节机制的缺陷、以及“特里芬两难”等问题的存在注定了该体系不可能保持长久的稳定。
黄金非货币化以后,国际货币体系不稳定性是从货币的不稳定性开始的。失去黄金限制的美元,无约束的对外滥发,降低了人们对美元的信心,冲击了该体系稳定性的根基。美联储的权责不对称、汇率波动不断加剧、调节渠道有限、国际游资严重冲击、参与权和决策权的不公平性等使得该体系更加不稳定。
上世纪八十年代以来,美国出现“去工业化”和“经济虚拟化”现象,导致了美国经济和美元支柱的虚拟化。欧元诞生之后,很快获得了国际本位货币的地位,并且以超过美元的速度重复着美元的游戏,引发了欧元和欧元区经济支柱的虚拟化。这使得国际货币体系的根基严重虚拟化。货币在其流通范围内的统一性要求是不以人的意志为转移的客观规律,欧元的出现破坏了这种统一性。这又使得当前的“双本位”货币体系也不可能是一种稳定的制度安排。
根据国际货币体系的演变规律和利益关系,新的国际货币体系的确立应充分重视各国的利益、积极发挥市场的作用、有效约束对外流动性的供给、积极维持国际货币环境的稳定。中国强大经济实力的参与和政府的积极推动,使得以经济实力为核心利益关系的未来货币体系的最大可能是美元——欧元——人民币联盟。这种以最有实力的主权货币为核心所形成新的货币体系,可以通过以多打少来约束破坏协议的经济大国,维持国际货币体系的稳定性。
中国强大的实体经济和高额的外汇储备为人民币谋求世界多极货币体系中的一极奠定了基础。当前,中国国内流动性膨胀的压力、人民币升值的预期、新的国际货币体系对人民币的需要、以及中国在维护未来国际货币体系稳定的过程中所肩负的大国责任都使得人民币国际化十分必要。人民币国际化将中国强大实体经济注入到国际货币体系之中,既能够维护国际货币体系稳定性,也可以解决当前中国宏观经济困境,解决中国“大经济”与“小货币”间的矛盾。
This paper systematily cards and studies the international monetary system with different forms, and indicates that its evolution reflects the international monetary's great demand for the unity and monetary's social attributes has been growing stronger and stronger. On this basis, we obtain two laws of the international monetary system's evolution. One is that the core strength of the international monetary system's formation and evolution is the interest relationship and economic strength instead of system issues such as exchange rate arrangements or trading system; the other is that the government forces gradually replaced the earlier natural factors and become the dominant force leading the international monetary system's pattern and involution.
U.S.A declared that it had stoped redeeming dollars for gold on August-15-1971. This action saved U.S.dollar, but opened he international monetary's new times that is "non-monetary gold". In this time, U.S.dollar lived in the core of the international monetary system. U.S.A taked advantage of this opportunity to use U.S.A's balance of payments deficit as its "financial free ride" tool in the international financial field. Under these conditions, U.S.A consolidated and expanded U.S.dollar's dominance, and established the dollar as the international standard currency. Euro quickly became another international standard currency after it circulated. Since then, the international monetary system entered into "double standard" times. In this times, U.S.dollar and Euro co-exist and co-run. To obtain more benefits, U.S.dollar and Euro are over-issued in the way of competition, which cause U.S.dollar, Euro and their assets continuously expand with high speed, and intensify the expansion of global liquidity.
In the gold standard international monetary system, gold depends its strong convertibility to maintain this system stability in the early stage. However, when gold implementation of the general equivalent of the social functions, it could not escape the shackles of individual value. When currency acts as a general equivalent, its nature requests it break away any actual product, which doomed that the gold can only be a transitional form of currency. With the development of commodity economy, this system had become increasingly unstable. In addition, the huge differences in monetary arrangements and the reserves's structure, the asymmetry between economic power and external interests, external instability, its own inherent contradictions of capitalism, and other factors exacerbated this instability.
Gold exchange standard international monetary system's establishment fully displays the gold and other precious metals had the gradual trend of non-monetary, and distinguished the standard currency and non-standard currency. During this period, the international monetary system's dominant force began to disappear, which leaded to a serious lack of coordination mechanism of the international economic system. This defect is the primary cause of instability in the system.
The establishment of the Bretton Woods system ended the chaotic situation of its previous international monetary system, and broughtthe international monetary system into a brief period with stability. But, currency's nature of public tool has serious contradiction with its control for private interests. At the same time, its reserve mechanism and adjustment mechanism had critical flaw, and "Triffin dilemma" phenomenon become more severe with its development. All of these problems determined that the system can not maintain long-term stability.
After the non-monetary gold, the instability of the international monetary system beganning from the currency. When U.S.dollar lost the limit of U.S.A's gold, U.S.dollar began to be issued without any constraint, which reducedpeople's confidence in the dollar and severely impacted the foundation of the stability of the international monetary system.
Since 1980, U.S.A's economy appeared the "de-industrialization" and "economic fictionalization" phenomenon, which led the fictionalization of U.S. economy and U.S.dollar's pillars. Euro quickly obtained the status of the international standard currency after its birth, and repeated U.S.dollar's games with hinger speed than U.S.dollar, which cause the pillar's fictionalization of the euro and the euro-zone economy. What has mentioned above makes the foundation of the international monetary system seriously fictionalizate. The unity of currency in its circulation can not be shifted with men's willpower, but the euro destroyed this unity, which makes the "double standard"montary system can not be a stable institutional arrangement.
According to the evolution law and the interest relation of the international monetary system, we hold that the new international monetary system should fully attach importance to every country's interests, and postively play the role of the market, and effective restraint the external supply of liquidity, and actively maintain the stability of the international monetary environment. The participation of China's powerful economic strength and the government's active promotion will makes the new international monetary system's largest trend is the monetary union of U.S.dollar, Euro and RMB, because it gives the expression of the core interest relation basing on economic strength. The new international monetary system which is based on the most powerful monetary sovereignty can restrain economic power who damage agreement through multi-fight it and maintainits stability.
China's real economy and strong foreign exchange reserves creates a good foundation for RMB to seek a polar in the multi-polar international monetary system. At the present, the press from the excess of liquidity of our country, and the lighten the anticipation of RMB's appreciation, and the new international monetary system need for the RMB, and Chinese powerful state responsibility in maintaining the stability of the new international monetary system make RMB's internationalization be bery necessary. RMB's internationalization makes Chinese powerful real economy injected into the real economy into the international monetary system inject into international monetary system,which not only solve some current puzzledoms of our country's macroeconomic, but also resolve the serious contradiction betweenChinese status of largest economy and the role of small money of RMB.
引文
① Eichengreen. "Golden Fetters". Oxford:Oxford University Press,1998.
② Eichengreen. "Globalizing Capital:A History of the International Monetary System". Princeton:Princeton University Press,1996.
③ Eichengreen. "The Dollar and the New BrettonWoods System".The Henry Thornton Lecture Delivered at the Cass School of Business,15-December-2004a; Eichengreen. "Global Imbalance and the Lessons of Bretton Woods". NBER Working Paper, NO.10497, May-2004b; Eichengreen. "Sterling's Past. Dollar's Futuer:Historical Perspectives on Resevre Currency Competition". NBER Working Paper, NO.11336. May-2005.
①“原罪论”是指如果新兴市场国家的金融市场有较大的脆弱性,会出现两种情况,一种是该国的货币不能用于国际借贷,另一种是在国内,本国的金融部门不愿意放长期贷款,所以企业在融资时存在两难,如果从外国借贷,存在货币不匹配问题,如果从国内借贷,存在“借短用长”的期限不匹配问题,这就是原罪,后果是无论是汇率浮动还是利率变动都会使企业的成本上升,企业经营出现困难,并进而影响到金融部门和整个经济。
②“中间制度消论”是指唯一可持久的汇率制度是自由浮动或是具有非常强硬承诺机制的固定汇率制。在这两种制度之间的中间制度都正在消失或应当消失。
③ Eichengreen. "The Dollar and the New BrettonWoods System".The Henry Thornton Lecture Delivered at the Cass School of Business,15-December-2004a; Eichengreen. "Global Imbalance and the Lessons of Bretton Woods". NBER Working Paper, NO.10497, May-2004b; Eichengreen. "Sterling's Past, Dollar's Futuer:Historical Perspectives on Resevre Currency Competition". NBER Working Paper, NO.11336, May-2005.
④[加]蒙代尔著,向松祚译.蒙代尔经济学文集(第六卷)——国际货币：过去、现在和未来[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2003.
①[加]蒙代尔著,向松祚译.蒙代尔经济学文集(第四卷)——宏观经济学与国际货币史[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2003a；[加]蒙代尔著,向松祚译.蒙代尔经济学文集(第五卷)——汇率与最优货币区[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2003b；[加]蒙代尔著,向松祚译.蒙代尔经济学文集(第六卷)——国际货币：过去、现在和未来[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2003c.
② Mundell. "Flexible Exchange Rates and Employment Policy", Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science,1961 (27):509--517; Mundell. "The Significance of Capital Mobility for Stabilization Policy Under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates", IMF Departmental Memorandum,63/13, March-1963a; Mundell. "Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates". Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science,1963b, Vol 39(4):475--485; Mundell. "A Reply:Capital Mobility and Size". Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science,1964, Vol 30(3):42--431.
③ Krugman."A Model of Balance of Payment Crisis". Journal of Money Cridet and Banking, 1979(11):311--325.
① Mundell. "The Rules of the Gold Exchange Standard". Hearings before Subcommittee on International Exchange and Payments of the Joint Economic Committee, September-1966.
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③“最优货币区理论”是指在该区域内几种货币之间具有无限的可兑换性,其汇率在进行经常交易和资本交易时互相钉住,保持不变；但是区域内的国家与区域以外的国家之间的汇率保持浮动。
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④刘骏民、张云.国际货币体系的演变规律和重建原则[J].上海金融,2009(1)：19--24；刘骏民、张云.金融危机、美元危机与国际货币体系[J].财经问题研究,2009(2)：60--66.
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① Eichengreen. "Globalizing Capital:A History of the International Monetary System (Second Edition)". Princetion:Princetion University Press,2008;艾肯格林著,彭兴韵译.资本全球化：国际货币体系史[M].上海：上海人民出版社,2009.
②陈彪如.国际货币体系[M].上海：华东师范大学出版社,1990.
③[加]蒙代尔著,向松祚译.蒙代尔经济学文集(第六卷)——国际货币：过去、现在和未来[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2003.
①刘骏民、李凌云.“双本位”国际货币体系与全球金融危机[J].亚太经济2009(05)：22--26.
①数据引自：王立中.国际货币发展的趋势与对策[M].北京：中国经济出版社,1995.
②资料来源：艾肯格林著,彭兴韵译.资本全球化：国际货币体系史(第2版)[M].上海：上海人民出版社,2009.
①数据引自：王立中.世纪货币与世界经济[M].北京：学术书刊出版社,1989.
①数据引自：陈彪如.国际货币体系[M].上海：华东师范大学出版社,1990.
①数据来源：Victor E. Argy. "The Postwar International Money Crisis:An Analysis ". London: Allen & Unwin,1981.
②这些主要成员国有德国、意大利、奥地利、葡萄牙、匈牙利、希腊、玻利维亚、巴西、保加利亚、加拿大、智利、哥斯达黎加、捷克斯洛伐克、厄瓜多尔、爱沙尼亚、芬兰、危地马拉、洪都拉斯、立陶宛、尼加拉瓜、巴拿马、秘鲁、菲律宾、波兰、罗马尼亚、萨瓦尔多、新西兰、泰国、瑞士、乌拉圭、南斯拉夫。资料来源：Eichengreen. "Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression,1919--1939". Oxford:Oxford University Press, 1992.
①数据引自：Johnson H. Clark. "Gold, France and the Great Depression,1919-1942". New Haven:Yale University,1998.
②数据引自：Eichengreen. "Globalizing Capital:A History of the International Monetary System (Second Edition)". Princetion:Princetion University Press,2008.
① Scammell. "The Stability of the International Monetary System". Totowa:Rowman & Littlefield Press,1987.
①刘骏民、李凌云.“双本位”国际货币体系与全球金融危机[J].亚太经济,2009(05)：22--26.
①[美]巴里·艾肯格林著,彭兴韵译.资本全球化——国际货币体系史[M]川.上海：上海人民出版版,2009.
②金本位货币制度的最早形式,亦称为古典的或纯粹的金本位制,盛行于1880—1914年间。自由铸造、自由兑换及黄金自由输出入是该货币制度的三大特点。在该制度下,各国政府以法律形式规定货币的含金量,两国货币含金量的对比即为决定汇率基础的铸币平价。黄金可以自由输出或输入国境,并在输出和输入过程形成铸币——物价流动机制,对汇率起到自动调节作用。这种制度下的汇率,因铸币平价的作用和受黄金输送点的限制,波动幅度不大。任何人都可以向国家造币厂申请将其所有的黄金铸造成金币或将金币熔成金属块。黄金的输入和输出在国与国之间可以自由进行转移。
①参见陈彪如.国际金融概论[M].上海：华东师范大学出版社,1996：P217.
①非ERM国家包括美国、英国、日本、加拿大、澳大利亚、瑞士、瑞典等。
②数据来源：IMF."The European Monetary System:Development and Perspectives". Nov.1990.
③数据来源：IMF."The European Monetary System:Development and Perspectives". Nov.1990.
①刘骏民、李凌云.“双本位”国际货币体系与全球金融危机[J].亚太经济,2009(05)：22--26.
①刘骏民、李凌云.“双本位”国际货币体系与全球金融危机[J].亚太经济,2009(05)：22--26.
②数据来源：根据美联储网站(www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/default.htm) Economic Research & Data 的 Exchange Rates and International Data整理、计算得到。
①刘骏民、李凌云.“双本位”国际货币体系与全球金融危机[J].亚太经济,2009(05)：22--26.
①刘骏民、李凌云.世界经济虚拟化中的全球经济失衡与金融危机[J].社会科学,2009(01)：3-11.
②部分或全部资产包括在官方外汇储备中(截止2006年底,部分公司持股包括国内资产)。
①刘骏民、李凌云.世界经济虚拟化中的全球经济失衡与金融危机[J].社会科学,2009(01)：3--11.
②数据来源：美国经济分析局(BEA)网站(www.bea.gov)U.S. Economic Accounts。
①刘骏民、李凌云.“双本位”国际货币体系与全球金融危机[J].亚太经济,2009(05)：22--26.
①刘骏民.保持经常项目顺差与金融项目逆差：中国维持经济持续增长的唯一路径[J].上海金融,2010(2)：13--18.
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①“原罪论”是指如果新兴市场国家的金融市场有较大的脆弱性,会出现两种情况,一种是该国的货币不能用于国际借贷,另一种是在国内,本国的金融部门不愿意放长期贷款,所以企业在融资时存在两难,如果从外国借贷,存在货币不匹配问题,如果从国内借贷,存在“借短用长”的期限不匹配问题,这就是原罪,后果是无论是汇率浮动还是利率变动都会使企业的成本上升,企业经营出现困难,并进而影响到金融部门和整个经济。
②“中间制度消论”是指唯一可持久的汇率制度是自由浮动或是具有非常强硬承诺机制的固定汇率制。在这两种制度之间的中间制度都正在消失或应当消失。
③ Eichengreen. "The Dollar and the New BrettonWoods System".The Henry Thornton Lecture Delivered at the Cass School of Business,15-December-2004a; Eichengreen. "Global Imbalance and the Lessons of Bretton Woods". NBER Working Paper, NO.10497, May-2004b; Eichengreen. "Sterling's Past, Dollar's Futuer:Historical Perspectives on Resevre Currency Competition". NBER Working Paper, NO.11336, May-2005.
④[加]蒙代尔著,向松祚译.蒙代尔经济学文集(第六卷)——国际货币：过去、现在和未来[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2003.
①[加]蒙代尔著,向松祚译.蒙代尔经济学文集(第四卷)——宏观经济学与国际货币史[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2003a；[加]蒙代尔著,向松祚译.蒙代尔经济学文集(第五卷)——汇率与最优货币区[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2003b；[加]蒙代尔著,向松祚译.蒙代尔经济学文集(第六卷)——国际货币：过去、现在和未来[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2003c.
② Mundell. "Flexible Exchange Rates and Employment Policy", Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science,1961 (27):509--517; Mundell. "The Significance of Capital Mobility for Stabilization Policy Under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates", IMF Departmental Memorandum,63/13, March-1963a; Mundell. "Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates". Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science,1963b, Vol 39(4):475--485; Mundell. "A Reply:Capital Mobility and Size". Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science,1964, Vol 30(3):42--431.
③ Krugman."A Model of Balance of Payment Crisis". Journal of Money Cridet and Banking, 1979(11):311--325.
① Mundell. "The Rules of the Gold Exchange Standard". Hearings before Subcommittee on International Exchange and Payments of the Joint Economic Committee, September-1966.
② Mundell. "The International Disequilibrium System". Kyklos,1961a(14):153--171; Mundell. "Flexible Exchange Rates and Employment Policy". Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science,1961 b(27):509--517; Mundell. "Theoretical Problems of the International Monetary System". Pakistan Development Review,1967(7):1--28; Mundell & Swoboda. Monetary Problems of the International Economy. Chicago:Chicago University Press,1969a; Mundell. "Toward a Better International Monetary System". Journal of Money. Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing,1969b,Vol 1(3):625--648. Mundell. "The International Monetary System:The Missing Factor". Journal of Policy Modeling,1995, Vol 17(5):479--492.
③1盎司黄金=35美元。
④陈彪如.国际货币体系[M].上海：华东师范大学出版社,1990.
①1945年,美国的黄金储备占资本主义世界总额的59%。资料来源：陈彪如.国际货币体系[M].上海：华东师范大学出版社,1990.
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② Dooley、Landau & Garber. "An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System". NBER Working Paper, NO.9971, September-2003.
③ Giovannini & Alberto. "How Do Fixed Exchange-rate RegimesWork:The Evidence from the Gold Standard, Bretton Woods and the EMS". in Marvin Miller、Eichengreen & Richard Portes eds. Blueprint for Exchange Rate Management. London:Center for Economic Policy Research London,1989.
① Bordo. "The Gold Standard, Bretton Woods and other Monetary Regimes:An Historical Appraisal". NBER Working Paper, NO.4310, October-1993.
② Krugman Paul. "A Model of Balance of Payments Crises." Journal of Money、Credit and Banking,1979(11):311--25.
③以汇率对数的绝对值变化作为衡量标准。资料来源：Bordo. "Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Historical Perspective". NBER Working Paper, NO.9654, April-2003.
④[美]麦克尔·梅尔文著,张志超译.国际货币与金融[M].上海：华东师范大学出版社,1990.
⑤资料来源：[美]特里芬著,杨承厚译.黄金与美元危机[M].北京：商务印刷馆,1997.“特里芬两难”是指布雷顿森林体系存在着的自身无法克服的内在矛盾,即美元价值要稳定,它就不能作为国际货币；美元要作为国际货币,它的价值就难以稳定。也就是说,如果美国要成为世界经济体系的霸主,让美元成为国际货币,那么就必须保持经常项目下的贸易赤字,让美元流出美国,让其他国家获得足够的美元;另一方面,随着美元的流出,和持续增长的赤字,会影响美元持有国对于美元信心,一旦有任何波动,会出现恐慌性的抛售。
①资料来源：陈彪如.国际货币体系[M].上海：华东师范大学出版社,1990.
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①张明.次贷危机体系的冲击[J].世界经济与政治,2009(6)：74--80.
②刘骏民.从虚拟资本到虚拟经济[M].山东人民出版社,1998；刘骏民、张云.国际货币体系的演变规律和重建原则[J].上海金融,2009(1)：19--24；刘骏民、张云.金融危机、美元危机与国际货币体系[J].财经问题研究,2009(2)：60--66.
③ Cohen Benjamin. The Future of Money. Princeton:Princeton University Press,2003.
④[美]本杰明·科恩著,代先强译.货币地理学[M].成都：西南财经大学出版社,2004.
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⑦ Dwyer & Lothian. "The economics of international monies". Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Working Paper.2003-10, January-2003.
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②Saches."Developing Country Debt and the World Economy(National Bureau of Economic Research Project Report,1989) ". Chicago and London:Chicago University Press,1991.
③李扬、黄金老,金融全球化研究[M].上海：上海远东出版社,1999.
④刘锡良、王丽娜.国际货币竞争理论研究[J].经济学动态,2008(5)：42--47.
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⑥钟伟、张明.全球金融稳定性三岛和亚元的未来[J].中国社会科学院国际金融研究中心工作论文,NO.06,2001.
⑦ Chinn & Frankel. "Why the Euro Will Rival the Dollar". International Finance,2008 Vol 11(1):49--73.
① James & Bordo. "A Long Term Perspective On The Euro". NBER Working Paper, NO.13815, February-2008.
② Mundell. "A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas". American Economic Review,1961 (51):509--517.
③“最优货币区理论”是指在该区域内几种货币之间具有无限的可兑换性,其汇率在进行经常交易和资本交易时互相钉住,保持不变；但是区域内的国家与区域以外的国家之间的汇率保持浮动。
④ Corden. "The Adjustment Problem", in "European Monetary Unification and its Meaning for the United States". Krause and Salant ed., Brooking Institution,1975.
⑤ Mckinnon. "Optimum Currency Areas". American Economic Review,1963(53):717--725.
① Kenen. "The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas, in Monetary Problems of the Inter-national Economy". Mundell & Swoboda, Chicago:Chicago University Press,1969.
② Fleming. "On Exchange Rate Unification". Economic Journal,1971, Vol 81(323):467--488.
③ Ishiyama & Yoshihide. "The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas:A Survey". IMF Staff Paper, 1975(22):344--383.
④ Helpman. "An Exploration in The Theory of Exchange Rate Regimes". Journal of Publical Economy,1981, Vol 53(1):53--87.
⑤ Lucas. "Interest Rate and Currency Prices in a Two-cournty". Journal of Monetary Economics, 1982(10):335--359.
⑥ Tavlas,G.S. "The 'new' Theory of Optimal Currency Areas".The World Economy,1993(16): 663--667.
⑦ Bayoumi & Eichengreen. "Optimum Currency Areas and Exchange Rate Volatility, Theory and Evidence Compared". International Trade and Finance、New Frontiers for Research, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1994.
⑧ Ricci. "A Model of an Optimum Currency Area". IMF Working Paper, No.97/76, June-1997.
⑨ Beine & Docquier. "A Stochastic Simulation Model of an Optimum Currency Area". Open Economies Review,1998(9):227--255.
① Frankel & Rose. "The Endogeneity of The Optimumcurrency Area Criteria". The Economic Journa,1998(108):1009--1025; Frankel. "No Single Currency Regime Is Right for All Countries or at All Times". Essays in International Finance, Princeton University, August-1999.
②[加]蒙代尔著,向松祚泽.蒙代尔经济学文集(第六卷)——国际货币：过去、现在和未来[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2003.
③ Robert Gilpin. "Global Political Economy-Understanding the International Economic Order". Princeton:Princeton University Press,2001.
① Dooley. "Responses to Volatile Capital Flows:Controls, Asset Liability Management and Architecture". Journal of Emerging Market Finance,2002, Vol 1(1):99--124; Dooley, Landau & Garber. "An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System". NBER Working Paper, NO.9971, September-2003; Dooley, Landau & Garber. "The Revived Bretton Woods System:The Effects of Periphery Intervention and Reserve Management on Interest Rates and Exchange Rates in Center Countries". NBER Working Paper, NO.10332, March-2004a; Dooley & Garber. "Is It 1958 or 1968? Three Notes on the Longevity of the Revived Bretton Woods System". Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,2005 (1):147--187.
② Eichengreen. "The Dollar and the New Bretton Woods System". The Henry Thornton Lecturevdelivered at the Cass School of Business,15-December-2004a; Eichengreen. "Global Imbalnaces and the Lessons of Bretton Woods". NBER Working Paper, NO.10497, May-2004b; Eichengreen. "Sterling's Past, Dollar's Future:Historical Perspectives on Reserve Currency Competition". NBER Working Paper, NO.11336, May-2005; Eichengreen & Flandreau. "The Rise and Fall of the Dollar, or When did the Dollar Replace Sterling as the Leading Reserve Currency?". NBER Working Paper, NO.14154, July-2008.
③ Greenwald & Stiglitz. "A Modest Proposal For International Monetary Reform". Istanbul, unpublished, August-2009.
④余永定.国际货币体系改革和中国外汇资产保值[J].国际经济评论,2009(5-6)：12--19.
①程实.次贷危机后的国际货币体系未来发展：本位选择、方向和路径[J].经济学家,2009(6)：84--89.
②黄益平.国际货币体系变迁与人民币国际化[J].国际经济评论,2009(5-6)：20--25.
③吴晓灵、唐欣语.对未来金融改革的建议[J].国际金融研究,2009(5)：7-11.
④刘骏民、张云.国际货币体系的演变规律和重建原则[J].上海金融,2009(1)：19--24；刘骏民、张云.金融危机、美元危机与国际货币体系[J].财经问题研究,2009(2)：60--66.
⑤余永定.国际货币体系改革和中国外汇资产保值[J].国际经济评论,2009(5-6)：12-19.
⑥周小川.关于改革国际货币体系的思考[EB/OL]. http://www.pbc.gov.cn,2009-03-23.
⑦李若谷.全球金融危机与国际货币体系重构[N].中国经济时报,2008-11-24.
①李扬.国际货币体系改革及中国的机遇[J].中国金融,2008(13)：23--25；李扬.推动国际货币体系多元化的冷思考[J].上海金融,2009(4)：5--7.
① Eichengreen. "Globalizing Capital:A History of the International Monetary System (Second Edition)". Princetion:Princetion University Press,2008;艾肯格林著,彭兴韵译.资本全球化：国际货币体系史[M].上海：上海人民出版社,2009.
②陈彪如.国际货币体系[M].上海：华东师范大学出版社,1990.
③[加]蒙代尔著,向松祚译.蒙代尔经济学文集(第六卷)——国际货币：过去、现在和未来[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2003.
①刘骏民、李凌云.“双本位”国际货币体系与全球金融危机[J].亚太经济2009(05)：22--26.
①数据引自：王立中.国际货币发展的趋势与对策[M].北京：中国经济出版社,1995.
②资料来源：艾肯格林著,彭兴韵译.资本全球化：国际货币体系史(第2版)[M].上海：上海人民出版社,2009.
①数据引自：王立中.世纪货币与世界经济[M].北京：学术书刊出版社,1989.
①数据引自：陈彪如.国际货币体系[M].上海：华东师范大学出版社,1990.
①数据来源：Victor E. Argy. "The Postwar International Money Crisis:An Analysis ". London: Allen & Unwin,1981.
②这些主要成员国有德国、意大利、奥地利、葡萄牙、匈牙利、希腊、玻利维亚、巴西、保加利亚、加拿大、智利、哥斯达黎加、捷克斯洛伐克、厄瓜多尔、爱沙尼亚、芬兰、危地马拉、洪都拉斯、立陶宛、尼加拉瓜、巴拿马、秘鲁、菲律宾、波兰、罗马尼亚、萨瓦尔多、新西兰、泰国、瑞士、乌拉圭、南斯拉夫。资料来源：Eichengreen. "Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression,1919--1939". Oxford:Oxford University Press, 1992.
①数据引自：Johnson H. Clark. "Gold, France and the Great Depression,1919-1942". New Haven:Yale University,1998.
②数据引自：Eichengreen. "Globalizing Capital:A History of the International Monetary System (Second Edition)". Princetion:Princetion University Press,2008.
① Scammell. "The Stability of the International Monetary System". Totowa:Rowman & Littlefield Press,1987.
①刘骏民、李凌云.“双本位”国际货币体系与全球金融危机[J].亚太经济,2009(05)：22--26.
①[美]巴里·艾肯格林著,彭兴韵译.资本全球化——国际货币体系史[M]川.上海：上海人民出版版,2009.
②金本位货币制度的最早形式,亦称为古典的或纯粹的金本位制,盛行于1880—1914年间。自由铸造、自由兑换及黄金自由输出入是该货币制度的三大特点。在该制度下,各国政府以法律形式规定货币的含金量,两国货币含金量的对比即为决定汇率基础的铸币平价。黄金可以自由输出或输入国境,并在输出和输入过程形成铸币——物价流动机制,对汇率起到自动调节作用。这种制度下的汇率,因铸币平价的作用和受黄金输送点的限制,波动幅度不大。任何人都可以向国家造币厂申请将其所有的黄金铸造成金币或将金币熔成金属块。黄金的输入和输出在国与国之间可以自由进行转移。
①参见陈彪如.国际金融概论[M].上海：华东师范大学出版社,1996：P217.
①非ERM国家包括美国、英国、日本、加拿大、澳大利亚、瑞士、瑞典等。
②数据来源：IMF."The European Monetary System:Development and Perspectives". Nov.1990.
③数据来源：IMF."The European Monetary System:Development and Perspectives". Nov.1990.
①刘骏民、李凌云.“双本位”国际货币体系与全球金融危机[J].亚太经济,2009(05)：22--26.
①刘骏民、李凌云.“双本位”国际货币体系与全球金融危机[J].亚太经济,2009(05)：22--26.
②数据来源：根据美联储网站(www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/default.htm) Economic Research & Data 的 Exchange Rates and International Data整理、计算得到。
①刘骏民、李凌云.“双本位”国际货币体系与全球金融危机[J].亚太经济,2009(05)：22--26.
①刘骏民、李凌云.世界经济虚拟化中的全球经济失衡与金融危机[J].社会科学,2009(01)：3-11.
②部分或全部资产包括在官方外汇储备中(截止2006年底,部分公司持股包括国内资产)。
①刘骏民、李凌云.世界经济虚拟化中的全球经济失衡与金融危机[J].社会科学,2009(01)：3--11.
②数据来源：美国经济分析局(BEA)网站(www.bea.gov)U.S. Economic Accounts。
①刘骏民、李凌云.“双本位”国际货币体系与全球金融危机[J].亚太经济,2009(05)：22--26.
①刘骏民.保持经常项目顺差与金融项目逆差：中国维持经济持续增长的唯一路径[J].上海金融,2010(2)：13--18.
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