贸易信贷在中国货币政策传导中的作用研究
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摘要
贸易信贷具有“准货币”性质,其对银行信贷存在一定程度的替代性,因而贸易信贷能够对货币政策传导产生影响。经典的货币政策传导理论没有考虑贸易信贷的作用,对现实的解释力存在一定的问题,尤其是近几年中国的货币政策实施的效果与经典理论有较大背离。本文将贸易信贷纳入货币政策传导分析框架,在传统货币政策传导渠道理论基础上,分别构建含有贸易信贷的货币政策传导信贷渠道、汇率渠道和资产价格渠道。文章运用数理模型推导等方法对贸易信贷与货币政策关系进行了深入分析。
本文除了对总体的贸易信贷进行讨论之外,还分别针对国际贸易信贷和伪国际贸易信贷进行分析,对三个层次的贸易信贷分别进行理论和实证研究,以求全面分析贸易信贷在中国货币政策传导中的作用。
本文运用中国实际数据,针对贸易信贷对中国货币政策变动的响应进行了实证研究,结果表明,总体上贸易信贷对紧缩的货币政策做出增加的响应,对扩张的货币政策做出减少的响应;国际贸易信贷资产额对国内紧缩货币政策做出减少的响应,对国内扩张的货币政策做出增加的响应。货币政策对贸易信贷、国际的影响存在一定程度的“非对称效应”,扩张的货币政策影响更大。同时,分别对含有贸易信贷的货币政策传导信贷渠道、汇率渠道和资产价格渠道进行实证检验,进一步分析贸易信贷在其中的作用。从而从贸易信贷在货币政策中发挥的作用这个视角,一定程度解释了我国货币政策传导的实际情况。文章的实证分析分别针对广义贸易信贷、国际贸易信贷和“伪国际贸易信贷”展开,结果表明,贸易信贷对货币政策传导存在一定的弱化作用,国际贸易信贷对货币政策传导渠道是短期弱化长期加剧作用。对于不同的传导渠道,贸易信贷的作用方式略有差异。本文针对国际资本非法利用贸易信贷出入境的问题,对这部分“伪国际贸易信贷”规模进行了估算,并且进行了实证分析,结果表明伪贸易信贷对我国货币政策调控资产价格的作用存在一定程度的弱化作用。
文章建议货币当局在制定货币政策时需充分考虑到贸易信贷在货币政策传导过程中所起到的作用,对于国际资本流动要加强监管防止伪国际贸易信贷的猖獗。同时,鉴于贸易信贷灵活、便捷的特点,其可以作为企业融资的一个重要方式,而且目前已经有越来越多的企业采用贸易信贷进行融资,我们需要对贸易信贷的发展进行积极引导,引导其健康发展,让贸易信贷对经济发展发挥积极作用。
Trade credit could be a kind of quasi-money. It could be substitute of money and bank credit, so it should affect monetary policy transmission. The traditional theory of monetary policy transmission had limited power to explain the effect of China's monetary policy. This paper considered trade credit into monetary policy transmission. Based on traditional theory of monetary policy transmission, this paper established three new monetary policy transfer channels containing trade credit, which were credit channel, exchange rate channel and asset price channel. The author used mathematic models and econometric models to study the relation between trade credit and monetary policy.
This paper didn't only study the whole trade credit, but also study international trade credit and fake international tradecredi. To study trade credit's role in China's monetary policy better, we studied 3 kinds of trade credit.
We did an empirical study of how trade credit responsed when China monetary policy changed. The result was that constrictive monetary policy made trade credit increase and expansionary monetary policy made trade credit decrease. We also found "dissymmetrical effect" exist when monetary policy affected trade credit. The second empirical study of this paper was about what trade credit do in the three new monetary policy channels, and what the real channels should be. Based on this view, it explained China's monetary policy effect well. Empirical study had been divided for three kinds of trade credit, which were generalized trade credit, international trade credit and fake international trade credit. The result showed that trade credit could frustrate monetary policy. Especially, international trade credit weakened monetary policy in the short run but strengthened it in the long run. The effects of trade credit had some differences between different channels. This paper estimated the amount of fake international trade credit, which was used as illegal channels for international hot money. We found that fake international trade credit weakened China's monetary policy effect to some extent.
We suggested that the authority should consider trade credit's effect when they changed monetary policy. The government should control fake international trade credit more seriously. As trade credit had its advantadges like convenience, many enterprises depended on it We proposed some suggestions on how to make trade credit have good effect.
本文除了对总体的贸易信贷进行讨论之外,还分别针对国际贸易信贷和伪国际贸易信贷进行分析,对三个层次的贸易信贷分别进行理论和实证研究,以求全面分析贸易信贷在中国货币政策传导中的作用。
本文运用中国实际数据,针对贸易信贷对中国货币政策变动的响应进行了实证研究,结果表明,总体上贸易信贷对紧缩的货币政策做出增加的响应,对扩张的货币政策做出减少的响应;国际贸易信贷资产额对国内紧缩货币政策做出减少的响应,对国内扩张的货币政策做出增加的响应。货币政策对贸易信贷、国际的影响存在一定程度的“非对称效应”,扩张的货币政策影响更大。同时,分别对含有贸易信贷的货币政策传导信贷渠道、汇率渠道和资产价格渠道进行实证检验,进一步分析贸易信贷在其中的作用。从而从贸易信贷在货币政策中发挥的作用这个视角,一定程度解释了我国货币政策传导的实际情况。文章的实证分析分别针对广义贸易信贷、国际贸易信贷和“伪国际贸易信贷”展开,结果表明,贸易信贷对货币政策传导存在一定的弱化作用,国际贸易信贷对货币政策传导渠道是短期弱化长期加剧作用。对于不同的传导渠道,贸易信贷的作用方式略有差异。本文针对国际资本非法利用贸易信贷出入境的问题,对这部分“伪国际贸易信贷”规模进行了估算,并且进行了实证分析,结果表明伪贸易信贷对我国货币政策调控资产价格的作用存在一定程度的弱化作用。
文章建议货币当局在制定货币政策时需充分考虑到贸易信贷在货币政策传导过程中所起到的作用,对于国际资本流动要加强监管防止伪国际贸易信贷的猖獗。同时,鉴于贸易信贷灵活、便捷的特点,其可以作为企业融资的一个重要方式,而且目前已经有越来越多的企业采用贸易信贷进行融资,我们需要对贸易信贷的发展进行积极引导,引导其健康发展,让贸易信贷对经济发展发挥积极作用。
Trade credit could be a kind of quasi-money. It could be substitute of money and bank credit, so it should affect monetary policy transmission. The traditional theory of monetary policy transmission had limited power to explain the effect of China's monetary policy. This paper considered trade credit into monetary policy transmission. Based on traditional theory of monetary policy transmission, this paper established three new monetary policy transfer channels containing trade credit, which were credit channel, exchange rate channel and asset price channel. The author used mathematic models and econometric models to study the relation between trade credit and monetary policy.
This paper didn't only study the whole trade credit, but also study international trade credit and fake international tradecredi. To study trade credit's role in China's monetary policy better, we studied 3 kinds of trade credit.
We did an empirical study of how trade credit responsed when China monetary policy changed. The result was that constrictive monetary policy made trade credit increase and expansionary monetary policy made trade credit decrease. We also found "dissymmetrical effect" exist when monetary policy affected trade credit. The second empirical study of this paper was about what trade credit do in the three new monetary policy channels, and what the real channels should be. Based on this view, it explained China's monetary policy effect well. Empirical study had been divided for three kinds of trade credit, which were generalized trade credit, international trade credit and fake international trade credit. The result showed that trade credit could frustrate monetary policy. Especially, international trade credit weakened monetary policy in the short run but strengthened it in the long run. The effects of trade credit had some differences between different channels. This paper estimated the amount of fake international trade credit, which was used as illegal channels for international hot money. We found that fake international trade credit weakened China's monetary policy effect to some extent.
We suggested that the authority should consider trade credit's effect when they changed monetary policy. The government should control fake international trade credit more seriously. As trade credit had its advantadges like convenience, many enterprises depended on it We proposed some suggestions on how to make trade credit have good effect.
引文
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