美国对华新贸易保护主义的负效应
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摘要
改革开放三十多年来,我国对外贸易取得了快速发展。1978年我国进出口贸易总额在世界排名为第32位,到2009年则跃升为第2位。中国做为世界第二大贸易国对美国这个世界第一大贸易国的霸主地位构成了挑战。在这种情况下,美国对中国实施了一系列新贸易保护主义政策。这些政策措施不但危害了中国经济的健康发展,同时也给美国经济发展造成了不小的伤害。本文以马克思主义贸易理论和西方经典著作家的贸易理论为基础,结合计量经济学方法对美国对华施行贸易保护给中美两国带来的负效应进行研究,并结合中国的现状,给出了具体政策建议。
本文共分七章,各章主要内容如下:
第一章为绪论,论述了本文的写作背景和研究意义,并对中外学者们的相关研究进行了综述。近些年来,美国对华贸易保护愈演愈烈,中美贸易摩擦频繁发生,而且涉案金额越来越多,对中国经济的危害也越来越大。贸易是互惠互利的,同样贸易保护是一把双刃剑,美国对华施行贸易保护在伤害中国经济的同时,必然对美国自己也造成了伤害。但通过对别人研究成果的梳理,发现系统论述美国对华贸易保护主义给中美两国造成的负效应的文献较少,特别是研究美国对华实施贸易保护对美国能造成什么危害的文献更少。笔者正是基于这种背景,以马克思主义贸易理论和西方经典著作家的贸易理论为基础来研究美国对华新贸易保护主义对中美两国产生的负效应,以期能在警示美国的同时,也给我国制定相应的对策措施提供理论支撑。
第二章研究了中美贸易的互利互惠性。改革开放以来,中美双边贸易取得了快速的发展,中美已经互相成为了重要的贸易伙伴国。由于我国实行出口导向型的发展战略,对外贸易对我国经济增长贡献巨大,快速发展的对外贸易促进了我国产业结构的优化升级,增加了就业,提高了收入,促进了人民生活的普遍提高。同样对美国来说,中美贸易也给美国带来了很大的利益,尽管中美贸易逆差不断扩大,但在美元本位制的国际货币体系下,中美贸易逆差并不会对美国经济造成伤害,反而意味着美国消费者购买了大量物美价廉的中国商品,增加了美国的福利。而且由于中国拥有巨额的美国外债,这相当于间接对美国进行投资,大大促进了美国经济的增长。
第三章研究了美国制定对华贸易保护政策的影响因素和根本目的。新中国成立后,美国出于自身政治经济利益的需要,对华贸易保护政策不断发展变换。但各个时期美国制定对华贸易政策都是以美国的政治利益为主、经济利益为辅的。并且在美国选举政治的体制下,美国对华贸易的相关利益集团也能通过各种途径影响美国对华贸易政策的制定。通过研究中美两国在不同时期经济发展的情况和当时美国对华的贸易政策可以看出,当中美两国经济实力相差悬殊时,中美贸易摩擦在数量和危害上都很小。但随着中国经济的快速发展,中国整体经济实力大幅攀升,中美之间差距逐渐变小,美国对华贸易保护主义开始强化,对中国的危害也越来越大。再结合美国经济发展史上曾经对英国、苏联和日本等竞争对手的遏制,我们不难看出,美国对华贸易保护的根本目的就是遏制和延缓中国的崛起,以保持美国的世界霸主地位。
第四章研究了美国对华贸易所实施的具体措施。美国对中国施行的贸易保护措施主要有限制向中国出口高科技产品,一再以人民币被低估为由压人民币大幅升值,并频繁发起反倾销、反补贴和保障措施等贸易救济措施,还设置了技术壁垒、绿色壁垒等非关税贸易壁垒,不断发起以保护知识产权为目的的“337调查”,等等。从经济发展史上来看,美国和英国的对外贸易政策历程非常相似,都是在经济发展初期提倡贸易保护,在经济强大后就开始主张自由贸易,在经济优势消弱后又开始贸易保护。美国现在的对华贸易保护就是在美国经济实力相对减弱的情况下实施的,当年英国的保护主义失效了,今天美国对华的贸易保护同样遏制不住中国的崛起,最后受害最大的也必将是美国自己。
第五章研究了美国对华贸易保护对美国的危害。美国对中国施行贸易保护政策一方面限制从中国的进口,另一方面禁止其高科技产品对中国的出口。美国禁止向中国出口高科技产品导致了美国工业的空洞化,丧失了中国这个大市场,使得美国工业产品出口乏力,导致了美国的产业结构扭曲,工人失业率增加。美国设置重重贸易壁垒禁止中国产品的进口,使美国消费者购买不到中国物美价廉的商品,损害了广大消费者的利益,使得美国社会的总福利受到了损失。通过实证分析也能证明了美国以保护工人和消费者为借口施行对华贸易保护政策,最终损害了美国工人和消费者的利益。
第六章研究了美国对华贸易保护对中国的危害。以中国现在的经济基础和发展水平,人民币大幅升值对中国来说是不可承受之重,而美国一再压人民币升值,中国也进行了一定的让步,人民币兑美元比价屡创新高。这导致了人民币对内贬值对外升值的矛盾,削弱了我国商品的国际竞争力,加剧了我国的通货膨胀,增加了我国金融部门对经济的宏观调控难度。而且愈演愈烈的中美贸易摩擦也导致了我国的外贸环境恶化,出口型中小企业由于应对贸易摩擦的能力差而大批倒闭破产,大量工人失业。美国对华进行出口限制,阻碍了我国经济的快速发展和产业结构的优化升级。
第七章研究了面对美国的贸易保护主义中国应该采取的政策措施。虽然面对美国的贸易保护中国经济仍然在快速发展,但我国现在还只是贸易大国而不是贸易强国,我国的贸易增长方式还是存在只有数量优势、没有质量优势的情况,出口产品附加值低,资源浪费严重等一系列问题,而且对外出口商品结构、地区结构、出口企业构成也不尽合理,所以我国应该大力促进贸易增长方式的转变,优化我国对外贸易的出口结构,加速我国由贸易大国向贸易强国的转变。而且为了营造良好的外部贸易环境和绕开贸易壁垒,我国应该加强区域经济合作和扩大对外投资。
总之,中美贸易是互利互惠的,美国对华贸易保护政策是一把双刃剑,害人害己。而且随着中国经济的快速发展,美国遏制中国崛起的战略很难改变,美国对华的贸易保护政策不会停止,中国必须采取相应的政策措施,直面美国的保护主义而崛起。
The export-oriented economic development mode has been prevailing for more than 3 decades in China since the Reform and Opening-up. Thanks to the mode, the foreign trade has enjoyed fast development and contributed to a great extend to China’s economic growth. At the same time, it has also brought some side-effects, such as high foreign trade dependency ratio and increasingly severe foreign trade security problems. The trade relationship between China, the largest developing country and the US, the largest developed country, has inevitably become the most important trade relationship in the world. In recent years, with the fast development of china’s economy, The US has implemented a wide range of trade protectionism policies against China aimed at containing China’s rising and defending US’s world leadership. These policies not only impaired the healthy development of China’s economy, but also did a lot of harm to the US economy. Based on the principles of Marxist Economics and the methods of econometrics, this paper analyses the negative effects of the US anti-China trade protectionism, and in the end specific policy proposals are given according to China’s current situation.
There are 7 chapters and each of them will be introduced briefly as follows:
Chapter 1 is the introduction in which background and value of the research are introduced and literature review is conducted. In recent years, the US anti-China trade protectionism, getting more and more severe with increasing amount involved, has done more and more harm to China’s economy. Trade is mutually beneficial and protectionism is a double-blade sword. While the US is implementing its anti-China protectionism to suppress China, its own benefits are also impaired. Through the literature review, less research on the negative effects of anti-China trade protectionism is found, especially on the negative effects on the US. Under this background, the paper analyzes the negative effects of the US anti-China trade protectionism on both countries based on Marxist economics in the hope of warning the US and providing theoretical support for China forming appropriate countermeasures.
Chapter 2 researches on the mutual benefits of the Sino-US trade. Since the Reform and Opening-up, the Sino-US trade has been keeping fast development, and both countries have become each other’s important trading partner. Since China took export-oriented development strategy, foreign trade has been tremendously contributing to China’s economic development, such as helping upgrade industry structure and promote employment, national income and living standards. The Sino-US trade benefits the US as well. Even though the Sino-US trade deficit has been enlarging, the deficit will not do harm to American industry with the US dollar being the world currency in the current international monetary system. On the contrary, American consumers can benefit from purchasing large quantities of‘made-in-China’products with good quality at low prices. Moreover, China bought substantial amount of US bonds as portfolio investment, which has greatly promoted the US economic growth.
Chapter 3 analyzes the determinants and objectives of the US anti-China trade protectionism. After the founding of new China, the US has been adjusting its trade protectionism against China continuously according to its political and economic needs. However, the political needs of the US outweigh its economic needs when constituting its trade policies toward China. Moreover, under the influence of the American voting system, American interested parties can influence the decision-making process of the government through various channels as far as the trade policies toward China are concerned. Through the study of economic development and corresponding policies of both countries in different periods, we find that when two countries have a tremendous difference in terms of economic strength, trade conflicts are minor both in quantity and harm, while as China is rising and the difference between China and the US is getting smaller and smaller, the US trade protectionism against China is doing more and more harm to China. Combined with the US protectionism against the UK, the Soviet Union and Japan in American economy development history, we find out the fundamental objective of the US anti-China trade protectionism is to contain and defer China’s rising to keep the leadership of the US in the world.
Chapter 4 researches into the US anti-China trade protectionism policies and analyzes the reasons why the US had swung from trade protectionism to free trade back to trade protectionism again, based on the development history of the UK. The anti-China trade protectionism includes limiting the exportation of high-tech products to China, pressuring RMB to appreciate, starting trade remedy measures such as anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures and setting up non-tariff barriers such as technology barriers and green barriers. Viewed from the economic development history, the US and the UK had similar experiences in foreign trade. They both advocated trade protectionism in the early period of economic development, and called for free trade when they were economically strong, then turned back to trade protectionism as their economic advantage was lost. The current US anti-China trade protectionism is implemented as their economic strength is worsening. As the UK protectionism failed in the end, the US anti-China trade protectionism cannot contain China’s rising and the biggest victim of the game will turn out to be the US itself.
Chapter 5 researches on the harm of anti-China trade protectionism to the US. The US is implementing trade protectionism against China through either restricting importing from China or exporting high-tech products to China. By restricting exportation of high-tech products to China, the US actually lost a huge market, which led to the impotent exportation of manufactures, the twisted industry structure and the increasing unemployment rate. The US erected many trade barriers to restrict the importation from China, which caused American consumers unable to get reasonably priced and good quality Chinese goods and impaired the interest of consumers, hence did harm to the US social well-being. Also empirical analysis shows that trade protectionism in the name of protecting workers and consumers has actually impaired American workers and consumers.
Chapter 6 researches on the damage caused by anti-China trade protectionism. RMB has been appreciating in response to the US pressure although the appreciation is almost unbearable to Chinese economy, which as a result has caused the contradiction of inward RMB depreciation and outward RMB appreciation, diminishing international competitiveness of Chinese goods and increasing difficulty of China’s macroeconomic management. Moreover, the escalating Sino-US trade conflict led to deteriorating trade environment, increasing bankruptcy of small and medium-sized exporting firms and more unemployment. The US anti-China trade protectionism has impeded the development of Chinese economy and further upgrading of China’s industry structure.
Chapter 7 researches on the policies and measures that China should take facing the US trade protectionism against China. Although China’s economy enjoys fast development given the US trade protectionism, China’s foreign trade still has many problems, such as low value-added exports, resources wasting, unreasonable structure of exporting areas and exporting firms. Therefore, China should promote the Change in the mode of foreign trade growth, upgrade the structure of exports, and transform China from a big nation to a strong nation in foreign trade. Moreover, China should strengthen regional cooperation and expand foreign investment in order to create a better external trade environment and to avoid trade barriers.
In summary, the Sino-US trade is mutually beneficial and the US trade protectionism against China is a two-blade sword, which will do harm to both sides. With the fast development of China’s economy, the US trade protectionism against China will not cease, so rising China should be prepared with responsive policies and measures to confront the US protectionism.
本文共分七章,各章主要内容如下:
第一章为绪论,论述了本文的写作背景和研究意义,并对中外学者们的相关研究进行了综述。近些年来,美国对华贸易保护愈演愈烈,中美贸易摩擦频繁发生,而且涉案金额越来越多,对中国经济的危害也越来越大。贸易是互惠互利的,同样贸易保护是一把双刃剑,美国对华施行贸易保护在伤害中国经济的同时,必然对美国自己也造成了伤害。但通过对别人研究成果的梳理,发现系统论述美国对华贸易保护主义给中美两国造成的负效应的文献较少,特别是研究美国对华实施贸易保护对美国能造成什么危害的文献更少。笔者正是基于这种背景,以马克思主义贸易理论和西方经典著作家的贸易理论为基础来研究美国对华新贸易保护主义对中美两国产生的负效应,以期能在警示美国的同时,也给我国制定相应的对策措施提供理论支撑。
第二章研究了中美贸易的互利互惠性。改革开放以来,中美双边贸易取得了快速的发展,中美已经互相成为了重要的贸易伙伴国。由于我国实行出口导向型的发展战略,对外贸易对我国经济增长贡献巨大,快速发展的对外贸易促进了我国产业结构的优化升级,增加了就业,提高了收入,促进了人民生活的普遍提高。同样对美国来说,中美贸易也给美国带来了很大的利益,尽管中美贸易逆差不断扩大,但在美元本位制的国际货币体系下,中美贸易逆差并不会对美国经济造成伤害,反而意味着美国消费者购买了大量物美价廉的中国商品,增加了美国的福利。而且由于中国拥有巨额的美国外债,这相当于间接对美国进行投资,大大促进了美国经济的增长。
第三章研究了美国制定对华贸易保护政策的影响因素和根本目的。新中国成立后,美国出于自身政治经济利益的需要,对华贸易保护政策不断发展变换。但各个时期美国制定对华贸易政策都是以美国的政治利益为主、经济利益为辅的。并且在美国选举政治的体制下,美国对华贸易的相关利益集团也能通过各种途径影响美国对华贸易政策的制定。通过研究中美两国在不同时期经济发展的情况和当时美国对华的贸易政策可以看出,当中美两国经济实力相差悬殊时,中美贸易摩擦在数量和危害上都很小。但随着中国经济的快速发展,中国整体经济实力大幅攀升,中美之间差距逐渐变小,美国对华贸易保护主义开始强化,对中国的危害也越来越大。再结合美国经济发展史上曾经对英国、苏联和日本等竞争对手的遏制,我们不难看出,美国对华贸易保护的根本目的就是遏制和延缓中国的崛起,以保持美国的世界霸主地位。
第四章研究了美国对华贸易所实施的具体措施。美国对中国施行的贸易保护措施主要有限制向中国出口高科技产品,一再以人民币被低估为由压人民币大幅升值,并频繁发起反倾销、反补贴和保障措施等贸易救济措施,还设置了技术壁垒、绿色壁垒等非关税贸易壁垒,不断发起以保护知识产权为目的的“337调查”,等等。从经济发展史上来看,美国和英国的对外贸易政策历程非常相似,都是在经济发展初期提倡贸易保护,在经济强大后就开始主张自由贸易,在经济优势消弱后又开始贸易保护。美国现在的对华贸易保护就是在美国经济实力相对减弱的情况下实施的,当年英国的保护主义失效了,今天美国对华的贸易保护同样遏制不住中国的崛起,最后受害最大的也必将是美国自己。
第五章研究了美国对华贸易保护对美国的危害。美国对中国施行贸易保护政策一方面限制从中国的进口,另一方面禁止其高科技产品对中国的出口。美国禁止向中国出口高科技产品导致了美国工业的空洞化,丧失了中国这个大市场,使得美国工业产品出口乏力,导致了美国的产业结构扭曲,工人失业率增加。美国设置重重贸易壁垒禁止中国产品的进口,使美国消费者购买不到中国物美价廉的商品,损害了广大消费者的利益,使得美国社会的总福利受到了损失。通过实证分析也能证明了美国以保护工人和消费者为借口施行对华贸易保护政策,最终损害了美国工人和消费者的利益。
第六章研究了美国对华贸易保护对中国的危害。以中国现在的经济基础和发展水平,人民币大幅升值对中国来说是不可承受之重,而美国一再压人民币升值,中国也进行了一定的让步,人民币兑美元比价屡创新高。这导致了人民币对内贬值对外升值的矛盾,削弱了我国商品的国际竞争力,加剧了我国的通货膨胀,增加了我国金融部门对经济的宏观调控难度。而且愈演愈烈的中美贸易摩擦也导致了我国的外贸环境恶化,出口型中小企业由于应对贸易摩擦的能力差而大批倒闭破产,大量工人失业。美国对华进行出口限制,阻碍了我国经济的快速发展和产业结构的优化升级。
第七章研究了面对美国的贸易保护主义中国应该采取的政策措施。虽然面对美国的贸易保护中国经济仍然在快速发展,但我国现在还只是贸易大国而不是贸易强国,我国的贸易增长方式还是存在只有数量优势、没有质量优势的情况,出口产品附加值低,资源浪费严重等一系列问题,而且对外出口商品结构、地区结构、出口企业构成也不尽合理,所以我国应该大力促进贸易增长方式的转变,优化我国对外贸易的出口结构,加速我国由贸易大国向贸易强国的转变。而且为了营造良好的外部贸易环境和绕开贸易壁垒,我国应该加强区域经济合作和扩大对外投资。
总之,中美贸易是互利互惠的,美国对华贸易保护政策是一把双刃剑,害人害己。而且随着中国经济的快速发展,美国遏制中国崛起的战略很难改变,美国对华的贸易保护政策不会停止,中国必须采取相应的政策措施,直面美国的保护主义而崛起。
The export-oriented economic development mode has been prevailing for more than 3 decades in China since the Reform and Opening-up. Thanks to the mode, the foreign trade has enjoyed fast development and contributed to a great extend to China’s economic growth. At the same time, it has also brought some side-effects, such as high foreign trade dependency ratio and increasingly severe foreign trade security problems. The trade relationship between China, the largest developing country and the US, the largest developed country, has inevitably become the most important trade relationship in the world. In recent years, with the fast development of china’s economy, The US has implemented a wide range of trade protectionism policies against China aimed at containing China’s rising and defending US’s world leadership. These policies not only impaired the healthy development of China’s economy, but also did a lot of harm to the US economy. Based on the principles of Marxist Economics and the methods of econometrics, this paper analyses the negative effects of the US anti-China trade protectionism, and in the end specific policy proposals are given according to China’s current situation.
There are 7 chapters and each of them will be introduced briefly as follows:
Chapter 1 is the introduction in which background and value of the research are introduced and literature review is conducted. In recent years, the US anti-China trade protectionism, getting more and more severe with increasing amount involved, has done more and more harm to China’s economy. Trade is mutually beneficial and protectionism is a double-blade sword. While the US is implementing its anti-China protectionism to suppress China, its own benefits are also impaired. Through the literature review, less research on the negative effects of anti-China trade protectionism is found, especially on the negative effects on the US. Under this background, the paper analyzes the negative effects of the US anti-China trade protectionism on both countries based on Marxist economics in the hope of warning the US and providing theoretical support for China forming appropriate countermeasures.
Chapter 2 researches on the mutual benefits of the Sino-US trade. Since the Reform and Opening-up, the Sino-US trade has been keeping fast development, and both countries have become each other’s important trading partner. Since China took export-oriented development strategy, foreign trade has been tremendously contributing to China’s economic development, such as helping upgrade industry structure and promote employment, national income and living standards. The Sino-US trade benefits the US as well. Even though the Sino-US trade deficit has been enlarging, the deficit will not do harm to American industry with the US dollar being the world currency in the current international monetary system. On the contrary, American consumers can benefit from purchasing large quantities of‘made-in-China’products with good quality at low prices. Moreover, China bought substantial amount of US bonds as portfolio investment, which has greatly promoted the US economic growth.
Chapter 3 analyzes the determinants and objectives of the US anti-China trade protectionism. After the founding of new China, the US has been adjusting its trade protectionism against China continuously according to its political and economic needs. However, the political needs of the US outweigh its economic needs when constituting its trade policies toward China. Moreover, under the influence of the American voting system, American interested parties can influence the decision-making process of the government through various channels as far as the trade policies toward China are concerned. Through the study of economic development and corresponding policies of both countries in different periods, we find that when two countries have a tremendous difference in terms of economic strength, trade conflicts are minor both in quantity and harm, while as China is rising and the difference between China and the US is getting smaller and smaller, the US trade protectionism against China is doing more and more harm to China. Combined with the US protectionism against the UK, the Soviet Union and Japan in American economy development history, we find out the fundamental objective of the US anti-China trade protectionism is to contain and defer China’s rising to keep the leadership of the US in the world.
Chapter 4 researches into the US anti-China trade protectionism policies and analyzes the reasons why the US had swung from trade protectionism to free trade back to trade protectionism again, based on the development history of the UK. The anti-China trade protectionism includes limiting the exportation of high-tech products to China, pressuring RMB to appreciate, starting trade remedy measures such as anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures and setting up non-tariff barriers such as technology barriers and green barriers. Viewed from the economic development history, the US and the UK had similar experiences in foreign trade. They both advocated trade protectionism in the early period of economic development, and called for free trade when they were economically strong, then turned back to trade protectionism as their economic advantage was lost. The current US anti-China trade protectionism is implemented as their economic strength is worsening. As the UK protectionism failed in the end, the US anti-China trade protectionism cannot contain China’s rising and the biggest victim of the game will turn out to be the US itself.
Chapter 5 researches on the harm of anti-China trade protectionism to the US. The US is implementing trade protectionism against China through either restricting importing from China or exporting high-tech products to China. By restricting exportation of high-tech products to China, the US actually lost a huge market, which led to the impotent exportation of manufactures, the twisted industry structure and the increasing unemployment rate. The US erected many trade barriers to restrict the importation from China, which caused American consumers unable to get reasonably priced and good quality Chinese goods and impaired the interest of consumers, hence did harm to the US social well-being. Also empirical analysis shows that trade protectionism in the name of protecting workers and consumers has actually impaired American workers and consumers.
Chapter 6 researches on the damage caused by anti-China trade protectionism. RMB has been appreciating in response to the US pressure although the appreciation is almost unbearable to Chinese economy, which as a result has caused the contradiction of inward RMB depreciation and outward RMB appreciation, diminishing international competitiveness of Chinese goods and increasing difficulty of China’s macroeconomic management. Moreover, the escalating Sino-US trade conflict led to deteriorating trade environment, increasing bankruptcy of small and medium-sized exporting firms and more unemployment. The US anti-China trade protectionism has impeded the development of Chinese economy and further upgrading of China’s industry structure.
Chapter 7 researches on the policies and measures that China should take facing the US trade protectionism against China. Although China’s economy enjoys fast development given the US trade protectionism, China’s foreign trade still has many problems, such as low value-added exports, resources wasting, unreasonable structure of exporting areas and exporting firms. Therefore, China should promote the Change in the mode of foreign trade growth, upgrade the structure of exports, and transform China from a big nation to a strong nation in foreign trade. Moreover, China should strengthen regional cooperation and expand foreign investment in order to create a better external trade environment and to avoid trade barriers.
In summary, the Sino-US trade is mutually beneficial and the US trade protectionism against China is a two-blade sword, which will do harm to both sides. With the fast development of China’s economy, the US trade protectionism against China will not cease, so rising China should be prepared with responsive policies and measures to confront the US protectionism.
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