我国大豆进口贸易的定价权问题研究
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摘要
在国际大宗农产品贸易中,大豆已经成为一种重要的战略物资,它是一种重要的粮食作物,同时也是蛋白质,饲料和食用油的重要来源。大豆加工的副产品——豆粕对我国畜牧业的发展具有极其重要的作用。大豆加工产业链长,涵盖了油脂加工、饲料行业、畜牧行业、食品加工业、医药行业、保健品行业等,可以说大豆生产在国民经济中有着不可低估的连锁效应。目前,中国大豆进口量居世界第一,消费量居世界第二,但由于各个方面的综合原因,中国在大豆进口上却没有相应的定价权。对国际大豆定价权的深入研究对于合理地制定我国的产业政策,保证我国国民经济稳定、快速、持续增长,具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文综合应用了定性与定量相结合的研究方法,主要从三大板块对我国大豆进口贸易的定价权问题进行了研究。
首先,从大豆贸易的国内外现状入手,分析了大豆的世界贸易结构以及中国大豆进口贸易的概况。在此基础上建立了定价权缺失的界定指标,通过指标对中国大豆进口的定价权做了定性与定量分析,包括进口量与进口价格的关系分析、进口价格的波动幅度的分析、大豆进口价格与国际市场价格的动态比价关系分析及格兰杰因果关系检验。通过定量与定性分析可知,中国大豆进口缺乏定价权。
其次,分析了定价权的影响因素并在此基础上对中国缺乏大豆国际定价权的原因进行了详细的解析。定价权的影响因素是比较广泛的,本文主要在对我国大豆价格形成机制进行分析的基础上,对我国缺乏国际大豆定价权的原因进行分析,得出影响中国大豆进口定价权的原因主要有供需失衡、缺乏定价中心、四大粮商的垄断、缺乏定价中心、行业协会功能不完善、缺乏信息系统平台、政策及政府公共服务不到位等。
再次,对中国大豆进口如何获得定价权提出了建议。一是要提高国产大豆供给量。增加国产大豆的供给量可以扩大中国在大豆国际贸易中对国内大豆市场价格的调节力度,使中国在大豆的贸易中不再受制于人;二是要加快加强农产品期货市场建设,主要表现为加快中国经济发展市场化进程,提高中国农产品期货市场国际化程度、改善中国农产品期货市场的投资者结构加强期货市场与现货市场的结合深度、增强科学性,促进交易规则的规范化和监管体制的国际化;第三政府要实施大豆产业保护及扶持政策,主要表现在加强政府的调控和服务、加强风险管理、增强行业联盟与合作。
In international agricultural commodities trade, soybean has become the world's important strategic commodity . It is an important food crops, and it was also an important source of protein, feed and cooking oil. it has become strategic reserves. The soybean imports of China has ranked first in the world, and at the same time the soybean consumption ranked second,but because the comprehensive reasons,China doesn’t have the pricing power in the import of soybean. This paper applied the qualitative and quantitative research methods for the analyzation .We studied the problem of the pricing power of the Soybean of China mainly from three blocks.
Firstly,we studied on the international market situation of Chinese soybean import,analyzed the situation of international trade and import trade’s structure,then we made the definition index of the lack of pricing.Based on the index,this paper analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively to the pricing power of China’s soybean import,including comparative between import volume and international price , the fluctuation range of the import price,the comparative between import price and international price,pricing and granger causality text.Through qualitative and quantitative analysis,we know that China lack the power of pricing.
Secondly,this paper analyzes the reason of Chinese soybean’s lack of import.The factors affecting the pricing are relatively broad. Based mainly on the mechanism of the soybean price forming ,we found the reasons of the lack of pricing power are mainly inclued the unbalanced supply and demand,lack of pricing centre, the monopoly of four food dealers(Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge, Cargill, Louis Dreyfus) , imperfect industry association , lacking the platform providing information ,policy and the government's public service does not reach the designated position, etc.
Thirdly,this study puts forward suggestions of getting pricing power.Firstly,we must improve the supply of domestic soybean .Through improving the domestic soybean supply, China can enhance the ability of adjusting domestic soybean market price, that can make China no longer enslaved to other countries in international soybean trade. Secondly,we must establish futures market deeply.It’s mainly included speeding up marketization of China's economic development , improving China's agricultural futures market’s internationalization degree, improving the investors structure of Chinese agricultural futures market ,strengthening the market combined of the futures market and cash market with depth, strengthening scientific, promoting the standardization of trade rules and the internationalization of the regulatory system. Thirdly, The government should implement soybean industry protection and supporting policies, mainly include strengthening the government’s regulation and service, strengthening risk management, enhancing industry associations’develpoing ang cooperating.
首先,从大豆贸易的国内外现状入手,分析了大豆的世界贸易结构以及中国大豆进口贸易的概况。在此基础上建立了定价权缺失的界定指标,通过指标对中国大豆进口的定价权做了定性与定量分析,包括进口量与进口价格的关系分析、进口价格的波动幅度的分析、大豆进口价格与国际市场价格的动态比价关系分析及格兰杰因果关系检验。通过定量与定性分析可知,中国大豆进口缺乏定价权。
其次,分析了定价权的影响因素并在此基础上对中国缺乏大豆国际定价权的原因进行了详细的解析。定价权的影响因素是比较广泛的,本文主要在对我国大豆价格形成机制进行分析的基础上,对我国缺乏国际大豆定价权的原因进行分析,得出影响中国大豆进口定价权的原因主要有供需失衡、缺乏定价中心、四大粮商的垄断、缺乏定价中心、行业协会功能不完善、缺乏信息系统平台、政策及政府公共服务不到位等。
再次,对中国大豆进口如何获得定价权提出了建议。一是要提高国产大豆供给量。增加国产大豆的供给量可以扩大中国在大豆国际贸易中对国内大豆市场价格的调节力度,使中国在大豆的贸易中不再受制于人;二是要加快加强农产品期货市场建设,主要表现为加快中国经济发展市场化进程,提高中国农产品期货市场国际化程度、改善中国农产品期货市场的投资者结构加强期货市场与现货市场的结合深度、增强科学性,促进交易规则的规范化和监管体制的国际化;第三政府要实施大豆产业保护及扶持政策,主要表现在加强政府的调控和服务、加强风险管理、增强行业联盟与合作。
In international agricultural commodities trade, soybean has become the world's important strategic commodity . It is an important food crops, and it was also an important source of protein, feed and cooking oil. it has become strategic reserves. The soybean imports of China has ranked first in the world, and at the same time the soybean consumption ranked second,but because the comprehensive reasons,China doesn’t have the pricing power in the import of soybean. This paper applied the qualitative and quantitative research methods for the analyzation .We studied the problem of the pricing power of the Soybean of China mainly from three blocks.
Firstly,we studied on the international market situation of Chinese soybean import,analyzed the situation of international trade and import trade’s structure,then we made the definition index of the lack of pricing.Based on the index,this paper analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively to the pricing power of China’s soybean import,including comparative between import volume and international price , the fluctuation range of the import price,the comparative between import price and international price,pricing and granger causality text.Through qualitative and quantitative analysis,we know that China lack the power of pricing.
Secondly,this paper analyzes the reason of Chinese soybean’s lack of import.The factors affecting the pricing are relatively broad. Based mainly on the mechanism of the soybean price forming ,we found the reasons of the lack of pricing power are mainly inclued the unbalanced supply and demand,lack of pricing centre, the monopoly of four food dealers(Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge, Cargill, Louis Dreyfus) , imperfect industry association , lacking the platform providing information ,policy and the government's public service does not reach the designated position, etc.
Thirdly,this study puts forward suggestions of getting pricing power.Firstly,we must improve the supply of domestic soybean .Through improving the domestic soybean supply, China can enhance the ability of adjusting domestic soybean market price, that can make China no longer enslaved to other countries in international soybean trade. Secondly,we must establish futures market deeply.It’s mainly included speeding up marketization of China's economic development , improving China's agricultural futures market’s internationalization degree, improving the investors structure of Chinese agricultural futures market ,strengthening the market combined of the futures market and cash market with depth, strengthening scientific, promoting the standardization of trade rules and the internationalization of the regulatory system. Thirdly, The government should implement soybean industry protection and supporting policies, mainly include strengthening the government’s regulation and service, strengthening risk management, enhancing industry associations’develpoing ang cooperating.
引文
[1]白明.“拱猪”的变压器与商品的定价权[J].中国经贸,2006(09).
[2]张燕生.大宗商品国际定价权是时间和综合实力的函数[J].中国经贸导刊,2010(16).
[3]何新貌.进口的作用及当前我国进口战略的选择[J].山东经济,2006(03).
[4]汝小洁.中国需要国际贸易定价权[J].世界有色金属,2005,(10).
[5]白明.从进口原油、铁矿石和铜的贸易看中国如何取得国际定价权[J].中国物价,2006(03).
[6]唐衍伟,王逢宝,张晨宏.中国大宗商品国际定价权的缺失及相关对策研究[J].中国物价, 2006(01).
[7] ABBOTT P C,KALLIO P K S.国际农产品贸易竞争理论的内涵[J].范秀荣,译.陕西农业科学,1998(2):43-47.
[8] CARTER C A,MACLAREN D,YILMAZ A.How com-petitive is the world wheat market:Working Paper No.99-002[Z].Department of Agricultural and Resource Eco-nomics,University of California Davis,1999.
[9] CARTER C A,MACLAREN D. Price or quantity com-petion oligopolistic structures in international commodity markets[J].Review of International Economics,1997,5(3):373-385.
[10] GOLDBERG P K,KNETTER M M.Measuring the inten-sity of competition in export markets[J].Journal of Inter-national Economics,1999,47(2):27-60.
[11] SONG Baohui,MARCHANT M A.Estimation of marketpower in the U.S. soybean export markets:Selected Pa-per prepared for presentation at the American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting[Z].Denver,Colo-rado,2004.
[12] MURRAY B C.Measuring oligopsony power with shadowprices:U.S. markets for pulpwood and sawlogs[J].The Review of Economics and Statics,1995,77(3):486-498.
[13] ROLLER L-H,SICKLES R C.Capacity and product mar-ket competition: measuring market power in a‘puppy-dog’industry[J].International Journal of Industrial Or-ganization,2000,18: 845-865.
[14] RAKOTOARISOA M A,SHAPOURI S.Market powerand the pricing of commodities imported from developing countries:the case of US vanilla bean imports[J].Agricul-turalEconomics,2001,25:285-294.
[15]余建斌,乔娟.国际垄断对中国大豆进口影响的实证分析[J].技术经济,2008.
[16] SONG Baohui,MARCHANT M A.Estimation of marketpower in the U.S. soybean export markets:Selected Pa-per prepared for presentation at the American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting[Z].Denver,Colo-rado,2004.
[17]孙泽生,宋玉华.“寡头”市场结构、贸易媒介与贸易商品定价[J].财贸研究,2008(05).
[18] (英国)约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯.货币论[M].陕西师范大学出版社,2008,(04):30-34.
[19] Bigman, D., D. Goldfarb and E. Schechtman.“Futures Market Efficiency and the Time Content of the information Sets”, [M] The Journal of Futures Markets,1983,(3):321~334.
[20] HAMAO Y. Correlations in price changes and volatility across international stockmarkets[J]. Review ofFinancialStud-ies 3, 1990: 281—307.
[21] Booth. G.,So. R. and Tse. Y.. Price Discovery in the German Equity Index Derivatives Markets. The Journal of Futures Markets, 1999, (19): 6619-6643.
[22]XiaoqingEleanorXu.Hung—GayFung.Cross--market1inkageetweenU.S.andJanpanesepreciousmenta1Sfuturestrading.Internationa1Financia1MarketS,Institutions&Money,2005.
[23]唐衍伟,陈刚,张晨宏.我国期货市场的波动性与有效性——基于三大交易市场的实证分析[J].财贸研究,2004(05):16-22.
[24]秦宛顺,陈衡.中国商品期货价格研究[J].金融研究,1998(02).
[25]王健,黄祖辉.我国大豆期货市场价格发现功能的实证研究[J].农业技术经济,2006(03).
[26]华仁海,陈百助.国内、国际期货市场期货价格之间的关联研究[J].经济学季刊, 2004(3): 727—742.
[27]沈蓉.争推能源期货亚洲追逐石油定价权[J].金融博览,2006(10).
[28]肖湘雄,熊文华,高志杰.农产品期货市场间波动信息传导与国际定价效率[J].统计与决策,2008(20).
[29]方秀玉.试论我国期货市场国际化及其国际定价中心功能的发挥[J].黑龙江对外经贸,2006(08).
[30]胡宇.我国期货市场成为世界定价中心的可能性分析[J].价格月刊,2006(11)
[31]刘建,秦焕超.中国大豆期货市场定价机制研究[J].中国证券期货,2010(07):23
[32]屈新英.我国原油进口定价权现状及对经济的影响[J].北方经济,2009(01).
[33]张鲁波.中国稀土出口定价权问题研究[D].2010(05).
[34]降蕴彰,卜祥.大豆国际贸易真相[J].农经,2009(11).
[35]李艺,汪寿阳.大宗商品国际定价权研究[M] .北京:科学出版社,2007.
[36]董方军,王军,大宗商品国际定价权缺失的原因及对策[D].
[37]中国植物油行业协会网,http://www.chinaoil.org.cn
[38]孙敬水.中级计量经济学[M].上海财经大学出版社,2008.7.
[39]张晓峒.Eviews使用指南与案例[M].机械工业出版社,2009.10.
[40]李子奈,潘文卿.计量经济学[M].高等教育出版社,2000.3.
1.大连商品交易所http://www.dce.com.cn
2.天琪期货网站http://www.tqfutures.com
3.中华粮网数据中心http://datacenter.cngrain.com
4.美国农业部http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/usdahome
5.中国粮油数据中心http://www.chinagrain.cn/
6.安琪期货网:http://www.yafco.com
[2]张燕生.大宗商品国际定价权是时间和综合实力的函数[J].中国经贸导刊,2010(16).
[3]何新貌.进口的作用及当前我国进口战略的选择[J].山东经济,2006(03).
[4]汝小洁.中国需要国际贸易定价权[J].世界有色金属,2005,(10).
[5]白明.从进口原油、铁矿石和铜的贸易看中国如何取得国际定价权[J].中国物价,2006(03).
[6]唐衍伟,王逢宝,张晨宏.中国大宗商品国际定价权的缺失及相关对策研究[J].中国物价, 2006(01).
[7] ABBOTT P C,KALLIO P K S.国际农产品贸易竞争理论的内涵[J].范秀荣,译.陕西农业科学,1998(2):43-47.
[8] CARTER C A,MACLAREN D,YILMAZ A.How com-petitive is the world wheat market:Working Paper No.99-002[Z].Department of Agricultural and Resource Eco-nomics,University of California Davis,1999.
[9] CARTER C A,MACLAREN D. Price or quantity com-petion oligopolistic structures in international commodity markets[J].Review of International Economics,1997,5(3):373-385.
[10] GOLDBERG P K,KNETTER M M.Measuring the inten-sity of competition in export markets[J].Journal of Inter-national Economics,1999,47(2):27-60.
[11] SONG Baohui,MARCHANT M A.Estimation of marketpower in the U.S. soybean export markets:Selected Pa-per prepared for presentation at the American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting[Z].Denver,Colo-rado,2004.
[12] MURRAY B C.Measuring oligopsony power with shadowprices:U.S. markets for pulpwood and sawlogs[J].The Review of Economics and Statics,1995,77(3):486-498.
[13] ROLLER L-H,SICKLES R C.Capacity and product mar-ket competition: measuring market power in a‘puppy-dog’industry[J].International Journal of Industrial Or-ganization,2000,18: 845-865.
[14] RAKOTOARISOA M A,SHAPOURI S.Market powerand the pricing of commodities imported from developing countries:the case of US vanilla bean imports[J].Agricul-turalEconomics,2001,25:285-294.
[15]余建斌,乔娟.国际垄断对中国大豆进口影响的实证分析[J].技术经济,2008.
[16] SONG Baohui,MARCHANT M A.Estimation of marketpower in the U.S. soybean export markets:Selected Pa-per prepared for presentation at the American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting[Z].Denver,Colo-rado,2004.
[17]孙泽生,宋玉华.“寡头”市场结构、贸易媒介与贸易商品定价[J].财贸研究,2008(05).
[18] (英国)约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯.货币论[M].陕西师范大学出版社,2008,(04):30-34.
[19] Bigman, D., D. Goldfarb and E. Schechtman.“Futures Market Efficiency and the Time Content of the information Sets”, [M] The Journal of Futures Markets,1983,(3):321~334.
[20] HAMAO Y. Correlations in price changes and volatility across international stockmarkets[J]. Review ofFinancialStud-ies 3, 1990: 281—307.
[21] Booth. G.,So. R. and Tse. Y.. Price Discovery in the German Equity Index Derivatives Markets. The Journal of Futures Markets, 1999, (19): 6619-6643.
[22]XiaoqingEleanorXu.Hung—GayFung.Cross--market1inkageetweenU.S.andJanpanesepreciousmenta1Sfuturestrading.Internationa1Financia1MarketS,Institutions&Money,2005.
[23]唐衍伟,陈刚,张晨宏.我国期货市场的波动性与有效性——基于三大交易市场的实证分析[J].财贸研究,2004(05):16-22.
[24]秦宛顺,陈衡.中国商品期货价格研究[J].金融研究,1998(02).
[25]王健,黄祖辉.我国大豆期货市场价格发现功能的实证研究[J].农业技术经济,2006(03).
[26]华仁海,陈百助.国内、国际期货市场期货价格之间的关联研究[J].经济学季刊, 2004(3): 727—742.
[27]沈蓉.争推能源期货亚洲追逐石油定价权[J].金融博览,2006(10).
[28]肖湘雄,熊文华,高志杰.农产品期货市场间波动信息传导与国际定价效率[J].统计与决策,2008(20).
[29]方秀玉.试论我国期货市场国际化及其国际定价中心功能的发挥[J].黑龙江对外经贸,2006(08).
[30]胡宇.我国期货市场成为世界定价中心的可能性分析[J].价格月刊,2006(11)
[31]刘建,秦焕超.中国大豆期货市场定价机制研究[J].中国证券期货,2010(07):23
[32]屈新英.我国原油进口定价权现状及对经济的影响[J].北方经济,2009(01).
[33]张鲁波.中国稀土出口定价权问题研究[D].2010(05).
[34]降蕴彰,卜祥.大豆国际贸易真相[J].农经,2009(11).
[35]李艺,汪寿阳.大宗商品国际定价权研究[M] .北京:科学出版社,2007.
[36]董方军,王军,大宗商品国际定价权缺失的原因及对策[D].
[37]中国植物油行业协会网,http://www.chinaoil.org.cn
[38]孙敬水.中级计量经济学[M].上海财经大学出版社,2008.7.
[39]张晓峒.Eviews使用指南与案例[M].机械工业出版社,2009.10.
[40]李子奈,潘文卿.计量经济学[M].高等教育出版社,2000.3.
1.大连商品交易所http://www.dce.com.cn
2.天琪期货网站http://www.tqfutures.com
3.中华粮网数据中心http://datacenter.cngrain.com
4.美国农业部http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/usdahome
5.中国粮油数据中心http://www.chinagrain.cn/
6.安琪期货网:http://www.yafco.com