我国资源性商品国际贸易定价权缺失问题研究
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摘要
资源性商品生产高度依赖于土地、矿藏等自然资源,而其在世界上的分布呈现极大的地域、国域的不平衡性。这种不平衡性使得资源性商品的生产、贸易和消费具有非常明显的“寡头”市场结构,这是国际资源性商品市场的基本特征。随着经济社会的快速发展,中国在国际资源性商品市场中的“寡头”地位已初步确立,中国因素对国际资源性商品价格具有重要影响。但中国拥有的“寡头”地位并不意味着中国具有资源性商品贸易的定价优势,这表现在两个方面：一是作为世界铁矿石、大豆等商品的最主要进口国,中国未获得与进口份额相匹配的贸易利得,长年被动接受出口国的垄断高价；二是作为世界稀土、煤炭等商品的出口国,中国未能掌控能源“寡头”优势,商品长年以低价出口。贸易商品这种价格变化可以概括为“中国需求带动世界价格上涨,中国供给带动世界价格下降”,这对中国国内经济的平稳增长构成严重的负面影响：一方面,进口高价不断挤压着国内下游市场的利润；另一方面,国内资源的低价流失严重危及了国家资源的战略地位。基于上述事实,本文主要研究国际资源性商品的定价机制以及我国的参与策略问题。
文章首先重点阐述了国际资源性商品的定价模式的种类及其价格发现机制；接着选择铁矿石和稀土为重点考察对象,运用Blair和Harrison的市场势力指数(BPI)和改进的Knetter(1993)的市场势力测度模型(汇率传递模型)实证测度中国铁矿石、稀土商品的买方市场势力和卖方市场势力,论证了我国在铁矿石、稀土市场定价权缺失的现实。
然后,本文借鉴孙泽生(2009)的“生产者-贸易媒介-消费者”的三分法国际资源性商品定价分析框架,在分析和理清铁矿石和稀土生产者市场、贸易媒介市场、消费者市场格局的基础上,解释铁矿石和稀土商品的定价机理以及定价权缺失的原因。分析结果表明,我国铁矿石进口定价权缺失是国内钢铁市场、贸易媒介市场的低集中度和国际铁矿石生产市场的高度垄断共同作用的结果,而我国稀土出口定价权缺失是国内稀土生产市场、贸易媒介市场的低集中度(多头对外结构)和高度集中地国外稀土消费市场共同作用的结果。
最后,本文从政府政策和市场机制等长、短期策略选择以及跳出博弈的定价模式选择两方面给出了中国增强资源性商品价格国际影响力的应对策略。
The production of resources commodity highly relies on natural resource such as land, mineral and etc., while its distribution is presenting tremendous regional and national unbalance in the world. This kind of unbalance makes the production, trade and consumption of resources commodity have very obvious "oligarch" market structure, and this is the basic characteristic of international resources commodity market. Along with the rapid development of social economy, Chinese "oligarch" position has already established at the international resources commodity market. Chinese factor has the important influence on international resources commodity price. But Chinese "oligarch" position doesn't mean that China has the advantage of the resources commodity trade price-setting. On the one hand as the most import country in the world such as iron mine and soybean...etc., China didn't acquire the trade profit that mutually matches with import quota, regularly passive accept the monopoly costliness of export country, on the other hand as the exit country, such as soil and coal...etc., China can not control the advantage of energy "oligarch", and the commodity regularly exported with low price. This kind of trade commodity price variety can generalize as that "Chinese need arouses price in the world to soar, Chinese supply arouses price in the world to descend". This will take serious negative effect to the steady growth of Chinese domestic economies. For one thing the import costliness continuously squeeze the profits of local downstream market, for the other the local resources were washed away with low price and endangered the strategic position of national resources. According to the above-mentioned fact, this text mainly studied the price-setting mechanism of the international resources commodity and participation strategy of our country.
Firstly, the article particularly elaborated that category of price-setting mode of international resources commodity and the discovering mechanism. Immediately after choosing iron mine stone and rare earth as investigate object, we make use of market power index (BPI) putting forward by Blair and Harrison and the improvement model to measure market power (the exchange rate delivers model) submitting by Knetter (1993) to respectively measure Chinese buyer market power and selling market of iron mine and rare earth commodity. By this, we demonstrated the reality that our country lacked of price-setting power in the iron mine and rare earth commodity market. Then drawing lessons of analytical frame "manufacturer-trade medium-consumer" bring forward by Sun Zesheng (2009), on the basis of the analysis and manage the foundation structure and form about iron stone and rare earth among the market of manufacturer, trade medium and consumer, we would explain their price-setting mechanism and the reason of the price power imperfection. The analysis showed that, our country lacking the import price-setting power of the iron stone were lead by the low concentration degree of the domestic steel market, the trade medium and the high monopoly of international iron stone producers. And our country lacking export price-setting power of the rare earth were lead by the low concentration degree of the domestic rare earth market, the trade medium and the high monopoly of international iron stone consumption market.
At last, this paper listed Chinese strategy choices to build up international resources commodity price influence from two sides, one is making the long and short-term strategy such as mansion policy and mechanism in the market...etc., another is price mode choosing by jumping out of the game.
文章首先重点阐述了国际资源性商品的定价模式的种类及其价格发现机制；接着选择铁矿石和稀土为重点考察对象,运用Blair和Harrison的市场势力指数(BPI)和改进的Knetter(1993)的市场势力测度模型(汇率传递模型)实证测度中国铁矿石、稀土商品的买方市场势力和卖方市场势力,论证了我国在铁矿石、稀土市场定价权缺失的现实。
然后,本文借鉴孙泽生(2009)的“生产者-贸易媒介-消费者”的三分法国际资源性商品定价分析框架,在分析和理清铁矿石和稀土生产者市场、贸易媒介市场、消费者市场格局的基础上,解释铁矿石和稀土商品的定价机理以及定价权缺失的原因。分析结果表明,我国铁矿石进口定价权缺失是国内钢铁市场、贸易媒介市场的低集中度和国际铁矿石生产市场的高度垄断共同作用的结果,而我国稀土出口定价权缺失是国内稀土生产市场、贸易媒介市场的低集中度(多头对外结构)和高度集中地国外稀土消费市场共同作用的结果。
最后,本文从政府政策和市场机制等长、短期策略选择以及跳出博弈的定价模式选择两方面给出了中国增强资源性商品价格国际影响力的应对策略。
The production of resources commodity highly relies on natural resource such as land, mineral and etc., while its distribution is presenting tremendous regional and national unbalance in the world. This kind of unbalance makes the production, trade and consumption of resources commodity have very obvious "oligarch" market structure, and this is the basic characteristic of international resources commodity market. Along with the rapid development of social economy, Chinese "oligarch" position has already established at the international resources commodity market. Chinese factor has the important influence on international resources commodity price. But Chinese "oligarch" position doesn't mean that China has the advantage of the resources commodity trade price-setting. On the one hand as the most import country in the world such as iron mine and soybean...etc., China didn't acquire the trade profit that mutually matches with import quota, regularly passive accept the monopoly costliness of export country, on the other hand as the exit country, such as soil and coal...etc., China can not control the advantage of energy "oligarch", and the commodity regularly exported with low price. This kind of trade commodity price variety can generalize as that "Chinese need arouses price in the world to soar, Chinese supply arouses price in the world to descend". This will take serious negative effect to the steady growth of Chinese domestic economies. For one thing the import costliness continuously squeeze the profits of local downstream market, for the other the local resources were washed away with low price and endangered the strategic position of national resources. According to the above-mentioned fact, this text mainly studied the price-setting mechanism of the international resources commodity and participation strategy of our country.
Firstly, the article particularly elaborated that category of price-setting mode of international resources commodity and the discovering mechanism. Immediately after choosing iron mine stone and rare earth as investigate object, we make use of market power index (BPI) putting forward by Blair and Harrison and the improvement model to measure market power (the exchange rate delivers model) submitting by Knetter (1993) to respectively measure Chinese buyer market power and selling market of iron mine and rare earth commodity. By this, we demonstrated the reality that our country lacked of price-setting power in the iron mine and rare earth commodity market. Then drawing lessons of analytical frame "manufacturer-trade medium-consumer" bring forward by Sun Zesheng (2009), on the basis of the analysis and manage the foundation structure and form about iron stone and rare earth among the market of manufacturer, trade medium and consumer, we would explain their price-setting mechanism and the reason of the price power imperfection. The analysis showed that, our country lacking the import price-setting power of the iron stone were lead by the low concentration degree of the domestic steel market, the trade medium and the high monopoly of international iron stone producers. And our country lacking export price-setting power of the rare earth were lead by the low concentration degree of the domestic rare earth market, the trade medium and the high monopoly of international iron stone consumption market.
At last, this paper listed Chinese strategy choices to build up international resources commodity price influence from two sides, one is making the long and short-term strategy such as mansion policy and mechanism in the market...etc., another is price mode choosing by jumping out of the game.
引文
①数据来源于“西本新干线现货交易平台”。
②数据来源于证券时报,2011年3月30日,我国焦炭生产情况。
③数据来源于中财网,2011年4月1日,今年我国稀土限采实际产量年年超标A股“疯抢”。
④资料来源于证券日报-资本证券网(北京),2011年5月16日,稀土市场囤货成风导致有价无市下游企业受压。
①2011年首批稀十出口配额,为14446吨,该数字较2010年第一批配额16304吨,降低约11.4%。
②资料来源十《环球时报》,2011年7月8日,世贸做出不利裁决,多国伺机对华发难,中国面临稀土保卫战。
③资料来源于《21世纪经济报道》,2011年6月16日,3-4版,WTO或已裁定中国9种原材料出口限制违规,欧盟贸易委员是呀中国稀土出口配额政策。
①资料来源十《21世纪经济报道》,2011年6月14日,澳资源税初定30%,中企恐双重受压,赴澳采矿成本上升外,铁矿石进口价格也恐再升高。
①该说法来源十孙洋生.贸易媒介与资源性商品定价：分析框架及基于国内税的研究[D].浙江大学博士论文,2008(10)。
①目前在国际市场上,能够体现供求定价的资源性商品,诸如：天然橡胶等。这在黄先明《天然橡胶的国际价格形成机制》(2006)中可见。
②在国际市场上,寡头需求大国,我们通常称其为“寡头国”。
①资料来源于2009年11月17日,南方网,武钢拿下首个铁矿石中国价格远低于长协价。
②资料来源于2009年8月17日,中国新闻网,中钢协与澳第3大矿企FMG铁矿石谈判结果出炉。
③资料来源于2010年3月9日,北京商报,必和必拓焦煤涨价55%铁矿石谈判难度加剧。
①资料来源于2010年3月13日,东方早报,铁矿石三巨头暂停与中国谈判现货价翻倍。
②在国际范围比较有影响力的铁矿石指数目前主要有三家：氏能源资讯的普氏指数、环球钢讯的TSI指数、金属导报的MBIO指数。普氏对应的矿石报价在三种指数中最高,原因在于普氏的结算公式中,给予矿山的报价份额最高。
③资料来源于中华人民共和国商务部。
①资料来源于2011年8月2日,中国新闻网,中国铁矿石价格指数10月正式推出将按周公布。
①“非参数测试方法”和“买方市场机构指标”见于周晓燕、汪德华,《工业经济研究》,“西方产业组织理论买方垄断势力衡量方法的述评”,2006(2)
①资料来源于,南方日报,2011年01月19日,“印度铁矿石加征20%出口关税”。
②资料来源于,国际商报,2011年06月02日,“多国上调铁矿石出口关税 越南等相继惜售铁矿石”。
①资料来源于,2010年8月14日,包头稀土企业联盟秘书处,近期市场价格(第三期)
②资料来源于证券日报,2011年5月16日,“稀土市场囤货成风导致有价无市专家建议推出稀土期货”
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②数据来源于证券时报,2011年3月30日,我国焦炭生产情况。
③数据来源于中财网,2011年4月1日,今年我国稀土限采实际产量年年超标A股“疯抢”。
④资料来源于证券日报-资本证券网(北京),2011年5月16日,稀土市场囤货成风导致有价无市下游企业受压。
①2011年首批稀十出口配额,为14446吨,该数字较2010年第一批配额16304吨,降低约11.4%。
②资料来源十《环球时报》,2011年7月8日,世贸做出不利裁决,多国伺机对华发难,中国面临稀土保卫战。
③资料来源于《21世纪经济报道》,2011年6月16日,3-4版,WTO或已裁定中国9种原材料出口限制违规,欧盟贸易委员是呀中国稀土出口配额政策。
①资料来源十《21世纪经济报道》,2011年6月14日,澳资源税初定30%,中企恐双重受压,赴澳采矿成本上升外,铁矿石进口价格也恐再升高。
①该说法来源十孙洋生.贸易媒介与资源性商品定价：分析框架及基于国内税的研究[D].浙江大学博士论文,2008(10)。
①目前在国际市场上,能够体现供求定价的资源性商品,诸如：天然橡胶等。这在黄先明《天然橡胶的国际价格形成机制》(2006)中可见。
②在国际市场上,寡头需求大国,我们通常称其为“寡头国”。
①资料来源于2009年11月17日,南方网,武钢拿下首个铁矿石中国价格远低于长协价。
②资料来源于2009年8月17日,中国新闻网,中钢协与澳第3大矿企FMG铁矿石谈判结果出炉。
③资料来源于2010年3月9日,北京商报,必和必拓焦煤涨价55%铁矿石谈判难度加剧。
①资料来源于2010年3月13日,东方早报,铁矿石三巨头暂停与中国谈判现货价翻倍。
②在国际范围比较有影响力的铁矿石指数目前主要有三家：氏能源资讯的普氏指数、环球钢讯的TSI指数、金属导报的MBIO指数。普氏对应的矿石报价在三种指数中最高,原因在于普氏的结算公式中,给予矿山的报价份额最高。
③资料来源于中华人民共和国商务部。
①资料来源于2011年8月2日,中国新闻网,中国铁矿石价格指数10月正式推出将按周公布。
①“非参数测试方法”和“买方市场机构指标”见于周晓燕、汪德华,《工业经济研究》,“西方产业组织理论买方垄断势力衡量方法的述评”,2006(2)
①资料来源于,南方日报,2011年01月19日,“印度铁矿石加征20%出口关税”。
②资料来源于,国际商报,2011年06月02日,“多国上调铁矿石出口关税 越南等相继惜售铁矿石”。
①资料来源于,2010年8月14日,包头稀土企业联盟秘书处,近期市场价格(第三期)
②资料来源于证券日报,2011年5月16日,“稀土市场囤货成风导致有价无市专家建议推出稀土期货”
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