基于供给风险视角的战略石油储备策略建模研究
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摘要
近年来，世界石油市场风险加剧，石油价格震荡上行。国际主要石油产区政局动荡，海运干线盗贼活动猖獗，供给中断频发。我国工业化步伐加快促使石油消费需求快速增长，供需失衡导致进口依存度不断扩大，国内外能源供给安全形势不容乐观。
战略石油储备可以有效应对供给中断。它本身服务于国家能源安全，以保障原油的不间断供给为目的，同时具有平抑国内油价异常波动的功能。我国的石油储备建设起步较晚，与发达国家相比还存在较大差距，储备规模小、保障能力差、体系不健全等问题突出。对于战略石油储备的收储、动用和轮换等机制的研究还十分匮乏。
在此背景下，本文以经济学和运筹学理论为基础，从“不确定性”的视角出发，主要考虑供给、需求、价格、中断等不确定因素，通过构建模型和数值模拟分析，研究了我国的战略石油储备的决策问题。主要回答了以下几个问题：石油供给中断和价格冲击会对经济产生何种影响，程度如何；在价格等因素不确定的条件下，我国最优石油储备规模如何；市场供给不确定条件下，应该采取怎样的储备收储、释放和补仓策略；我国的石油储备行为会对市场产生何种影响？
本文主要的创新性工作和结论如下：
（1）突发性供给中断的经济影响。应用福利经济学、产业经济学的基础理论，从投入、产出、就业、福利、宏观经济结构等多个方面展开，对供给中断和价格冲击的经济影响进行分析。在文献研究的基础上，对中断损失进行了界定，明确将损失划分为直接损失和间接损失两类，并采用相应的函数进行描述。
（2）最优关税和石油储备政策。分析了政策实施的成本和效益。在此基础上构建了关税-储备两阶段模型。应用模型和实际数据进行模拟研究，计算了不同需求弹性、中断概率条件下，我国的最优关税税率和石油储备规模。比较了不同政策的实施成本和减少潜在中断损失方面的优劣。研究认为当石油需求对价格缺乏弹性时，关税政策的潜在净收益随着税率的增长而增加较快；当石油需求弹性已经处于较高水平时，政策的净收益将显著下降，且同时实施两种政策的净收益大于单一政策收益。
（3）战略石油储备收储策略。构建了石油储备收储策略动态规划模型，采用2009年月度近似数据研究了较短时域内我国的石油储备收储和释放策略，分析了我国收储行为对市场的潜在影响。研究认为当考虑收储的市场影响时，油价上涨将导致石油储备成本大幅度提高。基于对需求弹性的敏感性分析发现，当需求对价格缺乏弹性时，最优收储速率对价格的变化不敏感，但收储行为对油价拉升的作用会比较明显。
（4）战略石油储备的释放和补仓策略。构建了随机动态规划模型研究无限时域条件下的战略石油储备的收储、释放和补仓策略问题。计算了不同价格和中断情景下的石油储备收储、释放和补仓策略。研究发现石油价格和市场中断概率决定储备边际成本，进而决定最优储备规模。当油价处于低位时应该扩大石油储备规模，且储量越高，最优吸储时间也应越长。市场期望以高概率发生连续中断时，应合理分配各阶段释放量，以实现总期望代价最低。
In recent years, the security situation of oil supply has kept getting worse, which is reflected bythe facts of frequent price shocks and disruptions, political instability of major exporters, terrorismand piracy on shipping routes.As long as China is concerned, the development of industrializationprompts oil consumption growing fast. Meanwhile, as a result of production and consumptionimbalance, the oil import dependence has increasing rapidly sincenever.
As an direct countermeasure against disruption, Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) can servenational energy security, guarantee continuous oil supply and depressing prices fluctuation. Chinastarts to build its SPR in2003and aims to hold a reserve capacity of8.5million tonnes till2020. Eventhough, China SPR construction is far behind developed countries. In comparison, China's SPRcapacity is smaller and the management system is still incomplete. Also, we find there is few studieson the field of SPR acquisition, release and rotation.
Therefore, in this thesis, we employ the methods of economics and operational research to studythe topics of SPR implementation strategies under market uncertainties. The major uncertaintiesconsidered here includes supply, demand, price, disruption as well as other factors. Based on thewhole research, the following questions are answered, how and to what extent the disruption affectsmacro-economy, What is the optimal SPR capacity for China, how should we acquire, release andrecover SPR in a disruption, how would the implementation of SPR affect oil price?The majorinnovative work and conclusions are as follows:
(1) The impact of disruption on economy. Based on the theories of welfare economics andindustrial economics, We analyzed the impact of disruption and price shock on production input,economic output, employment, social welfare and economic structure. According to the literaturereview, we summarized three major disruption loss, for which the functional forms are also specified.
(2) Optimal tariff rate and SPR capacity. We constructed a Tariff-Stockpile model based on thebenefit-cost analysis oftariff and SPR implementation. Given the Tariff-Stockpile model and actualdata, China's optimal tariff rate and SPR capacity are calculated. We also compared the efficiency ofthe two polices from the perspective of net benefit in a disruption. It is found that the moreconsumption demand is inelastic to price, the higher tariff net benefit is in a disruption. Though thenet benefit decreases rapidly with the increasing of demand elasticity. Moreover, we findcombinational benefit of two polices is higher than that of single one.
(3) SPR acquisition strategy. A dynamic programming model is constructed to study the SPRacquisition strategy. Given several specific scenarios, we simulated the optimal SPR acquisition andrelease strategies for China. It's found that the cost of establish SPR will become much higher if theimpact of oil acquisition on price is considered. when the consumption demand is inelastic to price,the optimal acquisition rate of SPR is insensitive to price, though the acquisition might drive the pricehigher in this situation.
(4) SPR release and restock strategies. We constructed a stochastic programming program modelto study the optimal SPR release and restock strategies. A simulation analysisis promoted, givenseveral price and disruption scenarios. It is found that the oil price and disruption probabilitydetermine the marginal cost of SPR which further impacts the optimal SPR capacity. We suggest thegovernment expand the SPR stockpile sizewhen the oil price is high, otherwise reduce it. The optimalstockpile acquisition time extends with the increase of optimal stockpile size. Additionally, when adisruption is likely to continue for several months, the decision maker should allocate the stockpilescientifically to minimize the total expect lose during this period.
战略石油储备可以有效应对供给中断。它本身服务于国家能源安全，以保障原油的不间断供给为目的，同时具有平抑国内油价异常波动的功能。我国的石油储备建设起步较晚，与发达国家相比还存在较大差距，储备规模小、保障能力差、体系不健全等问题突出。对于战略石油储备的收储、动用和轮换等机制的研究还十分匮乏。
在此背景下，本文以经济学和运筹学理论为基础，从“不确定性”的视角出发，主要考虑供给、需求、价格、中断等不确定因素，通过构建模型和数值模拟分析，研究了我国的战略石油储备的决策问题。主要回答了以下几个问题：石油供给中断和价格冲击会对经济产生何种影响，程度如何；在价格等因素不确定的条件下，我国最优石油储备规模如何；市场供给不确定条件下，应该采取怎样的储备收储、释放和补仓策略；我国的石油储备行为会对市场产生何种影响？
本文主要的创新性工作和结论如下：
（1）突发性供给中断的经济影响。应用福利经济学、产业经济学的基础理论，从投入、产出、就业、福利、宏观经济结构等多个方面展开，对供给中断和价格冲击的经济影响进行分析。在文献研究的基础上，对中断损失进行了界定，明确将损失划分为直接损失和间接损失两类，并采用相应的函数进行描述。
（2）最优关税和石油储备政策。分析了政策实施的成本和效益。在此基础上构建了关税-储备两阶段模型。应用模型和实际数据进行模拟研究，计算了不同需求弹性、中断概率条件下，我国的最优关税税率和石油储备规模。比较了不同政策的实施成本和减少潜在中断损失方面的优劣。研究认为当石油需求对价格缺乏弹性时，关税政策的潜在净收益随着税率的增长而增加较快；当石油需求弹性已经处于较高水平时，政策的净收益将显著下降，且同时实施两种政策的净收益大于单一政策收益。
（3）战略石油储备收储策略。构建了石油储备收储策略动态规划模型，采用2009年月度近似数据研究了较短时域内我国的石油储备收储和释放策略，分析了我国收储行为对市场的潜在影响。研究认为当考虑收储的市场影响时，油价上涨将导致石油储备成本大幅度提高。基于对需求弹性的敏感性分析发现，当需求对价格缺乏弹性时，最优收储速率对价格的变化不敏感，但收储行为对油价拉升的作用会比较明显。
（4）战略石油储备的释放和补仓策略。构建了随机动态规划模型研究无限时域条件下的战略石油储备的收储、释放和补仓策略问题。计算了不同价格和中断情景下的石油储备收储、释放和补仓策略。研究发现石油价格和市场中断概率决定储备边际成本，进而决定最优储备规模。当油价处于低位时应该扩大石油储备规模，且储量越高，最优吸储时间也应越长。市场期望以高概率发生连续中断时，应合理分配各阶段释放量，以实现总期望代价最低。
In recent years, the security situation of oil supply has kept getting worse, which is reflected bythe facts of frequent price shocks and disruptions, political instability of major exporters, terrorismand piracy on shipping routes.As long as China is concerned, the development of industrializationprompts oil consumption growing fast. Meanwhile, as a result of production and consumptionimbalance, the oil import dependence has increasing rapidly sincenever.
As an direct countermeasure against disruption, Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) can servenational energy security, guarantee continuous oil supply and depressing prices fluctuation. Chinastarts to build its SPR in2003and aims to hold a reserve capacity of8.5million tonnes till2020. Eventhough, China SPR construction is far behind developed countries. In comparison, China's SPRcapacity is smaller and the management system is still incomplete. Also, we find there is few studieson the field of SPR acquisition, release and rotation.
Therefore, in this thesis, we employ the methods of economics and operational research to studythe topics of SPR implementation strategies under market uncertainties. The major uncertaintiesconsidered here includes supply, demand, price, disruption as well as other factors. Based on thewhole research, the following questions are answered, how and to what extent the disruption affectsmacro-economy, What is the optimal SPR capacity for China, how should we acquire, release andrecover SPR in a disruption, how would the implementation of SPR affect oil price?The majorinnovative work and conclusions are as follows:
(1) The impact of disruption on economy. Based on the theories of welfare economics andindustrial economics, We analyzed the impact of disruption and price shock on production input,economic output, employment, social welfare and economic structure. According to the literaturereview, we summarized three major disruption loss, for which the functional forms are also specified.
(2) Optimal tariff rate and SPR capacity. We constructed a Tariff-Stockpile model based on thebenefit-cost analysis oftariff and SPR implementation. Given the Tariff-Stockpile model and actualdata, China's optimal tariff rate and SPR capacity are calculated. We also compared the efficiency ofthe two polices from the perspective of net benefit in a disruption. It is found that the moreconsumption demand is inelastic to price, the higher tariff net benefit is in a disruption. Though thenet benefit decreases rapidly with the increasing of demand elasticity. Moreover, we findcombinational benefit of two polices is higher than that of single one.
(3) SPR acquisition strategy. A dynamic programming model is constructed to study the SPRacquisition strategy. Given several specific scenarios, we simulated the optimal SPR acquisition andrelease strategies for China. It's found that the cost of establish SPR will become much higher if theimpact of oil acquisition on price is considered. when the consumption demand is inelastic to price,the optimal acquisition rate of SPR is insensitive to price, though the acquisition might drive the pricehigher in this situation.
(4) SPR release and restock strategies. We constructed a stochastic programming program modelto study the optimal SPR release and restock strategies. A simulation analysisis promoted, givenseveral price and disruption scenarios. It is found that the oil price and disruption probabilitydetermine the marginal cost of SPR which further impacts the optimal SPR capacity. We suggest thegovernment expand the SPR stockpile sizewhen the oil price is high, otherwise reduce it. The optimalstockpile acquisition time extends with the increase of optimal stockpile size. Additionally, when adisruption is likely to continue for several months, the decision maker should allocate the stockpilescientifically to minimize the total expect lose during this period.
引文
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