中国出生性别比偏高及其治理研究
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摘要
我国人口出生性别结构失衡问题已经十分严峻,这将在经济、社会、政治、文化等方面产生深远影响。近年来,党中央和国务院高度重视出生性别比偏高问题,制定并采取了一系列政策措施来努力改善出生性别结构,但是,目前出生性别比升高趋势尚未出现根本性逆转迹象。
从全国各地出生性别比变化的形势来看,其升高模式不尽一致,所面临的社会经济文化背景复杂多样,正在经历的阶段也有一定差别。在综合治理出生性别比偏高问题工作中,需要根据出生性别比偏高升高所处的不同阶段，采取相应的针对性治理措施。因此,研究出生性别比偏高的内在机理,分析不同阶段出生性别比变动特征、探寻社会经济文化因素对出生性别比升高的影响及其影响程度,具有重要的理论和现实意义。
本文分析了各因素对出生性别比升高的影响机制,认为：男孩偏好观念和性别选择技术决定并导致了出生性别比偏高,男孩偏好是出生性别比升高的必要条件,男孩偏好不强烈时仅仅影响生育观念,只有强烈的男孩偏好才会促使偏男生育观念付诸性别选择行为；性别选择技术是出生性别比升高的充分必要条件,是出生性别比升高的直接原因。具有强烈男孩偏好的家庭,可以借助于性别选择技术达到流女留男的目的,直接导致出生性别比升高。社会经济文化因素通过影响人们男孩偏好强度和性别选择技术可及性,间接影响人们的性别选择性生育行为,从而导致出生性别比升高。
在研究过程中,本文运用定性分析和定量研究相结合的方法,研究社会经济文化因素对出生性别比升高的影响机理。在此基础上,从男孩偏好观念和性别选择技术等决定出生性别比偏高的两个因素入手,结合人口统计学理论,构建数学分析模型。选取2000年人口普查数据以及社会经济文化方面的相关统计数据,并充分考虑空间自相关作用,运用空间计量技术定量地研究各变量对出生性别比偏高的影响及其影响程度。实证结果表明：人均计生宣教费用、城镇化水平和非农产业妇女就业率与出生性别比变化之间呈负相关关系；人均地区生产总值、农村家庭纯收入、妇女平均受教育年限、每万人卫生服务机构数与出生性别比变化之间呈正相关关系；在95%的显著性水平下,政策性总和生育率的回归系数不具有统计显著性,尚不能以此确定生育政策对出生性别比是否有影响以及影响程度如何。但是,进一步应用2000年人口普查资料和2005年1%抽样调查资料进行计算分析的结果表明,放宽生育政策能够使出生性别比有所降低,但还不足以使出生性别比恢复到正常水平。
社会经济文化因素影响并导致了出生性别比偏高,同时,出生性别比偏高也制约着人口和社会经济的可持续发展。本文应用人口统计理论建立相应的数学模型,以计算所得结果进一步阐述出生性别比偏高所带来的诸多危害。结果表明,1980-2009年期间,有1133-2267万个女胎被剥夺了生命权,数目庞大,可谓触目惊心。巨量的女胎缺失必然导致未来婚姻市场失衡,男性婚姻挤压规模将呈现逐年扩大态势,到2040年,有20%的男性处于大龄未婚状态。从社会性别的角度看,出生性别比偏高不仅直接侵害了妇女健康权和女性婴幼儿,还间接侵害了女性的发展机会、生存条件和财产权益,这揭示了社会性别、公共政策和权益保障等方面存在着制度性缺陷。
最后,从理论和现实两个方面分析了彻底解决出生性别比偏高问题的可行性,并在研究不同阶段出生性别比变动特征的基础上,结合实地调研所掌握的资料,从群众生育意愿、人口计生基础、综合治理开展情况等方面,探寻群众性别选择性生育的根源,总结得出不同社会经济发展阶段可供选择的治理路径。同时,结合各地开展关爱女孩行动的实践,指出进一步的改进方向,提出相应的对策建议,以期尽早遏制出生性别比升高的势头,从根本上解决出生性别比偏高问题。
The sex ratio at birth (SRB) is generally supposed to lie within a range of 103-107, subject to local biological variations. The rise in the reported sex ratio at birth in China since the early 1980s has aroused the concern of scholars and policymakers. It will have far-reaching-influence in the economic, social, political, cultural and other fields. In recent years, the central and local governments-attached great importance to the problems resulted from high sex ratio at birth, developed and adopted a series of policy measures to improve birth gender structure, but the current trend in rising SRB has not yet showing clear reversal signs.
Throughout the country, the specific trends of SRB in some region are going through a period of somewhat different stages and facing the complex and diverse conditions of socio-economic and cultural-background. Therefore, it has important theoretical and practical significance to study the internal mechanism of the high SRB and to analysis the different stages of development changes in SRB characteristics, which will help us to explore the socio-economic and cultural factors that impact on the sex ratio at birth.
We researched the mechanism of the impact on the imbalance of SRB. The results indicate that the son preference and sex selection technology are the basic and direct cause of rising sex ratio at birth. The son preference is a necessary condition for rising sex ratio at birth, and the sex selection technology is a necessary and sufficient condition for the rising sex ratio at birth. The family that has a strong preference for boys may do everything possible to get the service of sex selection technology, which results in the increase of sex ratio at birth. The socio-economic and cultural factors affect the intensity of the son preference and the access to competent the sex selection technology, which can indirectly affect people's reproductive behavior of gender-selection and lead to the rising of sex ratio at birth.
This paper analyzed the influence mechanism of the socio-economic and cultural factors in the high sex ratio at birth with the qualitative and quantitative research method. In the course of the qualitative analysis, we study the son preference and gender selection techniques which lead to the imbalance of SRB at first. Then we build a mathematical analysis model which is combined with demographic theory and the qualitative analysis to study the various variables impacting on the sex ratio at birth and the level of the impact. Based on data of the fifth census as well as the relevant statistical data of socio-economic and cultural fields, We get started on the spatial econometric analysis eventually. The regression result shows that there is a negative correlation with changes in relationships between the sex ratio at birth and the factors, which consist the per capita resources devoted to education on the concept of child-bearing, urbanization level and the employment rate for women in the non-agricultural industries, and there is positive correlation between the SRB and some factors, such as per capita GDP, net income of rural households, women's average years of education and the health services number per 10000 persons.
Socio-economic and cultural factors have led to the imbalance in sex ratio at birth, and the high sex ratio at birth constrained the demographic and socio-economic sustainable development simultaneously. In this paper, based on the demographic theory, the corresponding mathematical model was established through the quantitative method of estimation to explain the hazards caused by high sex ratio at birth. The result shows that tens of millions of female fetuses'rights of life was deprived during the period of 1980-2009, which can be described as shocking. A huge amount of female fetuse deficit will inevitably lead to imbalance in the future of the marriage market. It is estimated that the scale of man's marriage squeeze will be expanded year by year, and there will be 20% of men in the older unmarried state till the 2040s. In addition, from the gender perspective, we analysis the direct infringement of the high sex ratio at birth on the health rights of women and female infants and girls, as well as the indirect infringement on women's development opportunities, living conditions and property rights. It reveals gender equity, public policy and the other problems which have existed in the policy system.
Finally, the paper analysis the corresponding routing problem on governance by studying the feature of SRB at different stages.According to the available information got through on-site investigation, such as the masses wishes on birth, family planning work-team foundation and situation to carry out comprehensive management, we try to explore the root causes of selective fertility and give the alternative treatment path to be adopted at different stages of the socio-economic conditions. After researching the action of caring for girls on cases-driven method, we point out the direction for further improvement and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions as early as possible to curb the momentum of rising sex ratio at birth and eradicate the problem resulted from the imbalance of SRB.
从全国各地出生性别比变化的形势来看,其升高模式不尽一致,所面临的社会经济文化背景复杂多样,正在经历的阶段也有一定差别。在综合治理出生性别比偏高问题工作中,需要根据出生性别比偏高升高所处的不同阶段，采取相应的针对性治理措施。因此,研究出生性别比偏高的内在机理,分析不同阶段出生性别比变动特征、探寻社会经济文化因素对出生性别比升高的影响及其影响程度,具有重要的理论和现实意义。
本文分析了各因素对出生性别比升高的影响机制,认为：男孩偏好观念和性别选择技术决定并导致了出生性别比偏高,男孩偏好是出生性别比升高的必要条件,男孩偏好不强烈时仅仅影响生育观念,只有强烈的男孩偏好才会促使偏男生育观念付诸性别选择行为；性别选择技术是出生性别比升高的充分必要条件,是出生性别比升高的直接原因。具有强烈男孩偏好的家庭,可以借助于性别选择技术达到流女留男的目的,直接导致出生性别比升高。社会经济文化因素通过影响人们男孩偏好强度和性别选择技术可及性,间接影响人们的性别选择性生育行为,从而导致出生性别比升高。
在研究过程中,本文运用定性分析和定量研究相结合的方法,研究社会经济文化因素对出生性别比升高的影响机理。在此基础上,从男孩偏好观念和性别选择技术等决定出生性别比偏高的两个因素入手,结合人口统计学理论,构建数学分析模型。选取2000年人口普查数据以及社会经济文化方面的相关统计数据,并充分考虑空间自相关作用,运用空间计量技术定量地研究各变量对出生性别比偏高的影响及其影响程度。实证结果表明：人均计生宣教费用、城镇化水平和非农产业妇女就业率与出生性别比变化之间呈负相关关系；人均地区生产总值、农村家庭纯收入、妇女平均受教育年限、每万人卫生服务机构数与出生性别比变化之间呈正相关关系；在95%的显著性水平下,政策性总和生育率的回归系数不具有统计显著性,尚不能以此确定生育政策对出生性别比是否有影响以及影响程度如何。但是,进一步应用2000年人口普查资料和2005年1%抽样调查资料进行计算分析的结果表明,放宽生育政策能够使出生性别比有所降低,但还不足以使出生性别比恢复到正常水平。
社会经济文化因素影响并导致了出生性别比偏高,同时,出生性别比偏高也制约着人口和社会经济的可持续发展。本文应用人口统计理论建立相应的数学模型,以计算所得结果进一步阐述出生性别比偏高所带来的诸多危害。结果表明,1980-2009年期间,有1133-2267万个女胎被剥夺了生命权,数目庞大,可谓触目惊心。巨量的女胎缺失必然导致未来婚姻市场失衡,男性婚姻挤压规模将呈现逐年扩大态势,到2040年,有20%的男性处于大龄未婚状态。从社会性别的角度看,出生性别比偏高不仅直接侵害了妇女健康权和女性婴幼儿,还间接侵害了女性的发展机会、生存条件和财产权益,这揭示了社会性别、公共政策和权益保障等方面存在着制度性缺陷。
最后,从理论和现实两个方面分析了彻底解决出生性别比偏高问题的可行性,并在研究不同阶段出生性别比变动特征的基础上,结合实地调研所掌握的资料,从群众生育意愿、人口计生基础、综合治理开展情况等方面,探寻群众性别选择性生育的根源,总结得出不同社会经济发展阶段可供选择的治理路径。同时,结合各地开展关爱女孩行动的实践,指出进一步的改进方向,提出相应的对策建议,以期尽早遏制出生性别比升高的势头,从根本上解决出生性别比偏高问题。
The sex ratio at birth (SRB) is generally supposed to lie within a range of 103-107, subject to local biological variations. The rise in the reported sex ratio at birth in China since the early 1980s has aroused the concern of scholars and policymakers. It will have far-reaching-influence in the economic, social, political, cultural and other fields. In recent years, the central and local governments-attached great importance to the problems resulted from high sex ratio at birth, developed and adopted a series of policy measures to improve birth gender structure, but the current trend in rising SRB has not yet showing clear reversal signs.
Throughout the country, the specific trends of SRB in some region are going through a period of somewhat different stages and facing the complex and diverse conditions of socio-economic and cultural-background. Therefore, it has important theoretical and practical significance to study the internal mechanism of the high SRB and to analysis the different stages of development changes in SRB characteristics, which will help us to explore the socio-economic and cultural factors that impact on the sex ratio at birth.
We researched the mechanism of the impact on the imbalance of SRB. The results indicate that the son preference and sex selection technology are the basic and direct cause of rising sex ratio at birth. The son preference is a necessary condition for rising sex ratio at birth, and the sex selection technology is a necessary and sufficient condition for the rising sex ratio at birth. The family that has a strong preference for boys may do everything possible to get the service of sex selection technology, which results in the increase of sex ratio at birth. The socio-economic and cultural factors affect the intensity of the son preference and the access to competent the sex selection technology, which can indirectly affect people's reproductive behavior of gender-selection and lead to the rising of sex ratio at birth.
This paper analyzed the influence mechanism of the socio-economic and cultural factors in the high sex ratio at birth with the qualitative and quantitative research method. In the course of the qualitative analysis, we study the son preference and gender selection techniques which lead to the imbalance of SRB at first. Then we build a mathematical analysis model which is combined with demographic theory and the qualitative analysis to study the various variables impacting on the sex ratio at birth and the level of the impact. Based on data of the fifth census as well as the relevant statistical data of socio-economic and cultural fields, We get started on the spatial econometric analysis eventually. The regression result shows that there is a negative correlation with changes in relationships between the sex ratio at birth and the factors, which consist the per capita resources devoted to education on the concept of child-bearing, urbanization level and the employment rate for women in the non-agricultural industries, and there is positive correlation between the SRB and some factors, such as per capita GDP, net income of rural households, women's average years of education and the health services number per 10000 persons.
Socio-economic and cultural factors have led to the imbalance in sex ratio at birth, and the high sex ratio at birth constrained the demographic and socio-economic sustainable development simultaneously. In this paper, based on the demographic theory, the corresponding mathematical model was established through the quantitative method of estimation to explain the hazards caused by high sex ratio at birth. The result shows that tens of millions of female fetuses'rights of life was deprived during the period of 1980-2009, which can be described as shocking. A huge amount of female fetuse deficit will inevitably lead to imbalance in the future of the marriage market. It is estimated that the scale of man's marriage squeeze will be expanded year by year, and there will be 20% of men in the older unmarried state till the 2040s. In addition, from the gender perspective, we analysis the direct infringement of the high sex ratio at birth on the health rights of women and female infants and girls, as well as the indirect infringement on women's development opportunities, living conditions and property rights. It reveals gender equity, public policy and the other problems which have existed in the policy system.
Finally, the paper analysis the corresponding routing problem on governance by studying the feature of SRB at different stages.According to the available information got through on-site investigation, such as the masses wishes on birth, family planning work-team foundation and situation to carry out comprehensive management, we try to explore the root causes of selective fertility and give the alternative treatment path to be adopted at different stages of the socio-economic conditions. After researching the action of caring for girls on cases-driven method, we point out the direction for further improvement and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions as early as possible to curb the momentum of rising sex ratio at birth and eradicate the problem resulted from the imbalance of SRB.
引文
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5 Parazzini F, La Vecchia C, and Levi F, and Franceschi S. Trends in male:female ratio among newborn infants in 29 countries from five continents. Human Reproduction,1998,5:1394-1396
6刘爽.世界各国的人口出生性别比及其启示.人口学刊,2005a(6)：33-37
7 Bernstein, M. E. A genetic explanation of the wartime increase in the secondary sex ratio, American Journal of Human Genetics,1958,10:68-70
8 James, W. H. Cycle day of insemination, coital rate and sex ratio, Lancet,1971,1:112-114
9 Guerrero, Rodrigo, Association of type and time of insemination within the menstrual cycle with the human sex ratio at birth, New England Journal of Medicine,1974,291:10
10 Harlap, Susan, Gender of infants conceived on different days of the menstrual cycle, The New England Journal of Medicine.1979.26:1445-1448
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13 Brewis, Alexandra A. Sex ratios at birth in a Micronesian Atoll population, Social Biology,1993,40:207-214
14 Borgerhoff Mulder, Monique, On polygyny and sex ratio at birth:an evaluation of Whiting's study, Current Anthropology,1994,5:425-427
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21 Dubuc, Sylvia and David Coleman, An increase in the sex ratio of births to India-born mothers in England and Wales:Evidence for sex-selective abortions, Population and development Review,2007,33:383-400.
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