工业企业资信评估评价体系研究
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摘要
资信评估业的发展，适应了我国体制改革以来，金融事业不断发展和信用风险发生频率增多的新形势。企业资信评估为银行发放贷款提供了依据，据此可提高信贷质量，减少贷款风险。要发展我国的资信评估业，关键要有一套关于企业资信的评价指标体系，以科学的方法去评价企业的资信等级。我国现行的资信评估指标体系和评级方法尚处于起步阶段，有许多不尽人意之处，从而影响到评级的效果。
本课题研究，首先介绍了资信评估业在国内外的发展状况以及我国资信评估评价指标体系的现状，然后在参考国内外各种研究成果，并对专家意见进行统计分析的基础之上，从不同方面确定出一些相应的评价指标，再对这些指标进行汇总综合，从而得出企业资信综合评价指标体系，并针对不同的指标给出相应的评价等级及标准。
在选择评价方法时，针对企业资信等级综合评价的特点，本文选用了以层次分析法为基础、以模糊数学为工具的模糊综合评价方法，并重点分析了在该系统中应用和选择这种方法的依据。模糊综合评价方法是运用定性与定量相结合、专家评价与科学计算互为补充的系统分析方法。该方法不仅能评定出企业的信用等级，而且能找出所评价企业信用等级高低的原因，从而为企业经营者和贷款决策者提供建议。
最后，选取二十家上市公司的实际数据，用所设计的评价系统进行评价，并把得到的结果与从中国企业资信网上获得的结果用t检验法进行假设检验，证明了整个系统的有效性和实用性。
The development of credit evaluation adapts to the new conditions in that the financial undertakings is growing rapidly ahead and credit risk is happening with increasing frequency since our country has reformed the economic system. The evaluation of enterprise credit provides scientific basis of granting a loan for banks, in accordance with it, the bank can improve the quality of credit and reduce the credit risk. In order to develop the credit evaluation of our country, there should at first be a series of evaluation index system about it, by a certain method evaluating the credit rating of an enterprise. The present credit evaluation index system and evaluation methods are still in their beginning stage, they have so many imperfections that they spoil the evaluation effect.
This research on credit evaluation, first of all, introduces the origin and the development of credit evaluation at home and abroad, and the present situation of its index system. On the basis of some researching fruits from home and abroad, it analyses the views of experts and gives some evaluation indexes from different aspects and angles. Then it summarizes on these indexes, and establishes the comprehensive evaluation index system of enterprise credit. At the same time, evaluation rank and standards are given to different indices .
This paper chooses fuzzy comprehensive evaluation in accordance with the enterprise credit's characteristics. It studies this method and its application in the evaluation of enterprise credit. By use of qualitative and quantitative analytic method, the system is built up. It is combined experts" opinions with scientific calculation. It not only gives the rank of an enterprise, but also seeks the reason why the rank is high or low. Thus it can provide entrepreneur and the decision-makers of bank's loan with helpful suggestions.
At last, applying the method proposed to assessing the credit rating of twenty enterprises shows that the means is practical and scientific.
本课题研究，首先介绍了资信评估业在国内外的发展状况以及我国资信评估评价指标体系的现状，然后在参考国内外各种研究成果，并对专家意见进行统计分析的基础之上，从不同方面确定出一些相应的评价指标，再对这些指标进行汇总综合，从而得出企业资信综合评价指标体系，并针对不同的指标给出相应的评价等级及标准。
在选择评价方法时，针对企业资信等级综合评价的特点，本文选用了以层次分析法为基础、以模糊数学为工具的模糊综合评价方法，并重点分析了在该系统中应用和选择这种方法的依据。模糊综合评价方法是运用定性与定量相结合、专家评价与科学计算互为补充的系统分析方法。该方法不仅能评定出企业的信用等级，而且能找出所评价企业信用等级高低的原因，从而为企业经营者和贷款决策者提供建议。
最后，选取二十家上市公司的实际数据，用所设计的评价系统进行评价，并把得到的结果与从中国企业资信网上获得的结果用t检验法进行假设检验，证明了整个系统的有效性和实用性。
The development of credit evaluation adapts to the new conditions in that the financial undertakings is growing rapidly ahead and credit risk is happening with increasing frequency since our country has reformed the economic system. The evaluation of enterprise credit provides scientific basis of granting a loan for banks, in accordance with it, the bank can improve the quality of credit and reduce the credit risk. In order to develop the credit evaluation of our country, there should at first be a series of evaluation index system about it, by a certain method evaluating the credit rating of an enterprise. The present credit evaluation index system and evaluation methods are still in their beginning stage, they have so many imperfections that they spoil the evaluation effect.
This research on credit evaluation, first of all, introduces the origin and the development of credit evaluation at home and abroad, and the present situation of its index system. On the basis of some researching fruits from home and abroad, it analyses the views of experts and gives some evaluation indexes from different aspects and angles. Then it summarizes on these indexes, and establishes the comprehensive evaluation index system of enterprise credit. At the same time, evaluation rank and standards are given to different indices .
This paper chooses fuzzy comprehensive evaluation in accordance with the enterprise credit's characteristics. It studies this method and its application in the evaluation of enterprise credit. By use of qualitative and quantitative analytic method, the system is built up. It is combined experts" opinions with scientific calculation. It not only gives the rank of an enterprise, but also seeks the reason why the rank is high or low. Thus it can provide entrepreneur and the decision-makers of bank's loan with helpful suggestions.
At last, applying the method proposed to assessing the credit rating of twenty enterprises shows that the means is practical and scientific.
引文
[1] 陈述云，许彦，雷应轩．对企业信用评级内容的理论界定．经济问题探索，2000．1：94-95
[2] 许晓峰．资信评估实务概览．中华工商联合出版社．1998
[3] 吴晶妹．资信评估．中国审计出版社，2000
[4] 刘普寅，吴孟达．模糊理论及其应用．国防科技大学出版社，1998
[5] 贺仲雄．模糊数学及其派出决策方法．中国铁道出版社，1993
[6] 陈元燮．建立信用评级指标体系的几个理论问题．财经问题研究，2000．8：1-8
[7] 张启燕．投资保值的钥匙：点评我国资信评估业．投资与合作，2000．2：42
[8] 陈元燮．建立我国资信评估制度若干问题的思考．金融理论与实践，1997．3：8-9
[9] 易仁萍．企业财务分析方法．经济管理出版社，1999
[10] 杨军．商业银行客户评价．中国财政经济出版社，1999
[11] 财政部统计评价司．一九九八年度企业效绩评价标准值．1999
[12] 杜宽旗．经济系统分析方法在专业银行对企业资信评估中的应用．数量经济技术经济研究，1998．2：59-62
[13] 盛骤，谢式干，潘承毅．概率论与数理统计．高等教育出版社，1997
[14] 曾珍秀，顾培亮．可持续发展的系统分析与评价．科学出版社．2000
[15] 杨峰．信息不对称与金融风险问题．黑龙江财专学报，2001．3：9-12
[16] 财政部注会考委办．财务成本管理．中国财政经济出版社，2001
[17] 白雪梅，赵松山．多种综合评价方法的优劣判断研究．经济研究，2000．7：45-48
[18] 彭路，彭行．资信评估业：铸出你的权威之剑．中国第三产业，2000．2：39-40
[19] 汪代权．信息不对称与商业银行信贷风险．财经科学，1999．2：49-50
[20] 邹新月，刘婵，徐文汇．国有商业银行信贷中的几个经济学问题．湘潭工学院学报，2001．6：4-7
[21] 张文凯．资信评估与金融市场发展．上海经济研究，1999．6：47-50
[22] 郭亚军，苏志雄．企业素质评价和具有协商特征的投资决策方法及应用．数量经济技术经济研究，1997．12：25-27
[23] 杨德新．股份公司评价．华中理工大学出版社，1997
[21] 杜胜利．企业经营业绩评价．经济科学出版社，1999
[25] 顾江，于晓颖．企业资信评级指标体系评价模型．数量经济技术经济研究，1999．5：58-60
[26] 杨斌．加入世贸组织后我国资信评级业的发展．世界经济研究，2000．2：62-64
[27] 魏巍贤．企业信用等级综合评价方法及应用．系统工程理论与实践，1998．2：26-31
[28] 中国人民银行调查统计司．我国企业直接融资发展状况与分析．金融时报，1998．8．1
[29] 张洪波．论上市股份公司资信评估指标体系的构建．财经理论与实践，1998．1：38-39
[30] 周玉干．詹银珍，盛昭瀚．咨询业信誉度评价方法研究．管理工程学报，1999．3：41-44
[31] Moody's Investor Service. Global credit analysis. IFR Publishing Itd, 1992
[32] Moody's Investors Service. Industrial company rating methodology. Global Credit Research, 1998
[33] William Britton, Keith Davies, Tony Johnson. Modern methods of Valuation. The Estates Gazette. Inc, 1980
[34] Richard Dobby. Portfolio Theory and Investment Management. Blackwell Publisher UK., 1995
[35] Drew dahl, Rorald E. Shrieves. The extension of international credit by US banks: a disaggregated analysis, 1988-1994.Journal of International Money and Finance, 2001. 18(1): 153-167
[36] J.Galindo. Credit risk assessment using statistical and manchine learnina:basic methodology and risk modeling applicat-
ions. Computational Economics, 2001,15(1-2): 107-143
[37] Altman E I.Corporate financial distress. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1983
[38] Gill Baker. The credit picking gets harder. Euromoney, 2001. 2: 67-76
[39] Steven Dennis, Debarshi Nandy, Lan G. Sharpe. The Determinants of contract terms in bank revolving credit agreements.Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2000. 35(1): 87-110
[40] Dilip,Madam, Haluk Ural. A two-Factor hazard rate model for pricing risking debt and term structure of credit spread. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2000.35(1): 43-46
[41] Gifford Fong, Oldrich A. Vasicek. A multidimensional framework for risk analysis. Financial Analysts, 1997.7:51-57
[42] Edward I. Altman, John B. Caouette, Paul Narayanan. Credit-Risk measurement:the ironic challenge in the next decade. Financial Analysts, 1998,7:7-11
[43] Altman, E., A. Saunders. Credit risk measurement over the last 20 years. Journal of Banking and Finance, 1998.2:73-76
[44] Lea V. Carty. Corporte credit-risk dynamics. Association for Investment Management and Research,2000,4:67-87
[45] Carty, L., J. Fens. Measuring changes in credit quality. Special report, Moody's Investors Service, 1993. 10
[46] Joans D.M. Fisher. Credit market imperfections and the heterogeneous responses of firms to monetary shocks. Journal of Money, credit and Banking, 1993.31, (2): 65-77
[47] Wuffli, P., D. Hunt Fixing the credit problem. Mckinsey Quarterly, 1993,2:65-77
[48] Ania Helk. Moving down the credit curve. Euromoney, 2001.8: 68-78
[49] Pierre-Richard Agenor Paul R. Masson. Credibility, Reputati-
on and the Mexican Peso Crisis. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1999.5:123-135
[50] Standard & Poor's Corporation. Ratings Performance 1996:Stability and Transition. Special Report, Standard & Poor's Corporation, 1997.2
[2] 许晓峰．资信评估实务概览．中华工商联合出版社．1998
[3] 吴晶妹．资信评估．中国审计出版社，2000
[4] 刘普寅，吴孟达．模糊理论及其应用．国防科技大学出版社，1998
[5] 贺仲雄．模糊数学及其派出决策方法．中国铁道出版社，1993
[6] 陈元燮．建立信用评级指标体系的几个理论问题．财经问题研究，2000．8：1-8
[7] 张启燕．投资保值的钥匙：点评我国资信评估业．投资与合作，2000．2：42
[8] 陈元燮．建立我国资信评估制度若干问题的思考．金融理论与实践，1997．3：8-9
[9] 易仁萍．企业财务分析方法．经济管理出版社，1999
[10] 杨军．商业银行客户评价．中国财政经济出版社，1999
[11] 财政部统计评价司．一九九八年度企业效绩评价标准值．1999
[12] 杜宽旗．经济系统分析方法在专业银行对企业资信评估中的应用．数量经济技术经济研究，1998．2：59-62
[13] 盛骤，谢式干，潘承毅．概率论与数理统计．高等教育出版社，1997
[14] 曾珍秀，顾培亮．可持续发展的系统分析与评价．科学出版社．2000
[15] 杨峰．信息不对称与金融风险问题．黑龙江财专学报，2001．3：9-12
[16] 财政部注会考委办．财务成本管理．中国财政经济出版社，2001
[17] 白雪梅，赵松山．多种综合评价方法的优劣判断研究．经济研究，2000．7：45-48
[18] 彭路，彭行．资信评估业：铸出你的权威之剑．中国第三产业，2000．2：39-40
[19] 汪代权．信息不对称与商业银行信贷风险．财经科学，1999．2：49-50
[20] 邹新月，刘婵，徐文汇．国有商业银行信贷中的几个经济学问题．湘潭工学院学报，2001．6：4-7
[21] 张文凯．资信评估与金融市场发展．上海经济研究，1999．6：47-50
[22] 郭亚军，苏志雄．企业素质评价和具有协商特征的投资决策方法及应用．数量经济技术经济研究，1997．12：25-27
[23] 杨德新．股份公司评价．华中理工大学出版社，1997
[21] 杜胜利．企业经营业绩评价．经济科学出版社，1999
[25] 顾江，于晓颖．企业资信评级指标体系评价模型．数量经济技术经济研究，1999．5：58-60
[26] 杨斌．加入世贸组织后我国资信评级业的发展．世界经济研究，2000．2：62-64
[27] 魏巍贤．企业信用等级综合评价方法及应用．系统工程理论与实践，1998．2：26-31
[28] 中国人民银行调查统计司．我国企业直接融资发展状况与分析．金融时报，1998．8．1
[29] 张洪波．论上市股份公司资信评估指标体系的构建．财经理论与实践，1998．1：38-39
[30] 周玉干．詹银珍，盛昭瀚．咨询业信誉度评价方法研究．管理工程学报，1999．3：41-44
[31] Moody's Investor Service. Global credit analysis. IFR Publishing Itd, 1992
[32] Moody's Investors Service. Industrial company rating methodology. Global Credit Research, 1998
[33] William Britton, Keith Davies, Tony Johnson. Modern methods of Valuation. The Estates Gazette. Inc, 1980
[34] Richard Dobby. Portfolio Theory and Investment Management. Blackwell Publisher UK., 1995
[35] Drew dahl, Rorald E. Shrieves. The extension of international credit by US banks: a disaggregated analysis, 1988-1994.Journal of International Money and Finance, 2001. 18(1): 153-167
[36] J.Galindo. Credit risk assessment using statistical and manchine learnina:basic methodology and risk modeling applicat-
ions. Computational Economics, 2001,15(1-2): 107-143
[37] Altman E I.Corporate financial distress. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1983
[38] Gill Baker. The credit picking gets harder. Euromoney, 2001. 2: 67-76
[39] Steven Dennis, Debarshi Nandy, Lan G. Sharpe. The Determinants of contract terms in bank revolving credit agreements.Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2000. 35(1): 87-110
[40] Dilip,Madam, Haluk Ural. A two-Factor hazard rate model for pricing risking debt and term structure of credit spread. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2000.35(1): 43-46
[41] Gifford Fong, Oldrich A. Vasicek. A multidimensional framework for risk analysis. Financial Analysts, 1997.7:51-57
[42] Edward I. Altman, John B. Caouette, Paul Narayanan. Credit-Risk measurement:the ironic challenge in the next decade. Financial Analysts, 1998,7:7-11
[43] Altman, E., A. Saunders. Credit risk measurement over the last 20 years. Journal of Banking and Finance, 1998.2:73-76
[44] Lea V. Carty. Corporte credit-risk dynamics. Association for Investment Management and Research,2000,4:67-87
[45] Carty, L., J. Fens. Measuring changes in credit quality. Special report, Moody's Investors Service, 1993. 10
[46] Joans D.M. Fisher. Credit market imperfections and the heterogeneous responses of firms to monetary shocks. Journal of Money, credit and Banking, 1993.31, (2): 65-77
[47] Wuffli, P., D. Hunt Fixing the credit problem. Mckinsey Quarterly, 1993,2:65-77
[48] Ania Helk. Moving down the credit curve. Euromoney, 2001.8: 68-78
[49] Pierre-Richard Agenor Paul R. Masson. Credibility, Reputati-
on and the Mexican Peso Crisis. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1999.5:123-135
[50] Standard & Poor's Corporation. Ratings Performance 1996:Stability and Transition. Special Report, Standard & Poor's Corporation, 1997.2