最优金融结构：理论与实证研究
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摘要
金融结构是金融体系构成要素的组成、相互关系及其量的比例,主要包括金融机构(产业)结构、金融市场结构、金融资产结构和金融价格结构等组成部分。金融体系在经济增长与发展过程中的作用已经达到普遍共识，然而金融结构与经济发展之间的关系仍处于争议之中，金融结构研究自戈德斯密斯开始已发展了近半个世纪之久，关于这样的研究也是汗牛充栋，从金融结构“两分法”、金融结构无关论、金融服务论、金融法律论、金融功能观、金融结构优化论等，国内外学者从各个视角努力为金融结构与经济发展之间关系增添有力论证。然而还有一些问题仍待解决，例如什么样的金融结构最有利于经济发展？是否存在最优金融结构？金融结构的优化目标是什么？何为金融结构失衡？金融结构失衡程度如何？金融结构失衡对经济与稳定的影响效果如何？这些问题在以往文献中没有明确回答或者研究不够深入，而最优金融结构理论对此类问题可以做出较为准确的回答。林毅夫等人提出的最优金融结构理论则是一套新的理论，是金融结构研究领域新的努力与尝试，最优金融结构理论是对传统金融结构研究的突破、发展与补充，然而最优金融结构研究尚处于初步阶段，理论体系仍不完善，并缺乏大量理论与实证研究。本文则在一个改进的最优金融结构理论框架内，对林毅夫等人发展起来的最优金融结构理论进行新的解释，运用现代经济分析工具，对金融结构相关理论进行了较为系统的归纳，通过建立一个新的最优金融结构理论框架来解释金融结构与经济发展之间的作用机理，构建最优金融结构理论模型，并进行实证分析，试图去回答以往研究中围绕金融结构尚未解决的问题，回答了最优金融结构是否存在的问题，最优金融结构的动态性，金融结构偏离最优的问题，金融结构偏离最优程度如何？金融结构偏离最优对经济发展产生何种影响？并且将最优金融结构理论应用与中国，分析中国金融结构是否偏离实体经济所决定的最优金融结构？如若偏离其偏离程度如何？中国金融结构偏离最优对经济发展的影响效果？如何去避免或降低金融结构偏离最优所产生的负面影响，等等话题。以上这些围绕最优金融结构的话题是本文的研究任务。
第二章节最优金融结构理论的理论渊源。主要是对已有的金融结构与经济发展之间的关系、最优金融结构理论的渊源进行梳理。
第三章节最优金融结构理论分析，在前文关于最优金融结构理论的理论渊源的梳理基础上，通过对金融结构与经济发展之间关系，构建了最优金融结构的理论体系，该体系主要从最优金融结构理论模型、最优金融结构动态性、最优金融结构偏离、金融结构趋向最优的优化与调整等构成一个可供实证的总体研究思路。
第四章节最优金融结构的实证分析，本章节是基于第三章节理论分析的结论的基础上,利用可获得的跨国样本数据进行实证分析,企图找出相应的经验论据来支持研究的理论观点。经过实证检验显示：1.一国在其经济发展过程中存在最优金融结构，金融结构与经济发展之间存在着“倒U”型关系；2.随着各国法律、文化、政治、宗教、经济金融等因素的变化最优金融结构发生动态性移动，决定了每个经济体在一定发展阶段都有各自的最优金融结构。并通过内生增长模型，设计了最优金融结构的估算模型，然后分别选取市场主导型国家美国与银行主导型国家德国最为典型代表国进行分析。
第五章节最优金融结构的偏离对金融稳定性的影响。本章节在最优金融结构偏离特征的理论分析基础上，设计金融结构偏离最优程度指标，结合33个国家在1989年-2009年的面板数据进行实证分析，发现金融结构偏离最优程度与金融稳定性之间存在负相关关系，随着金融结构偏离最优程度加大，银行危机与金融危机发生的概率增加，金融稳定性下降，金融风险增加。
第六章中国最优金融结构研究。本章节首先运用统计学方法对中国金融结构进行描述性分析，并估算出实体经济发展所需求的中国最优金融结构估计值。在此基础上，构建中国金融结构偏离最优程度与经济发展的关系模型分析金融结构偏离最优给经济发展带来的影响效果，结果发现，随着中国金融结构偏离最优状态的程度加深，中国经济发展水平降低。然后在对最优金融偏离的模型设置中加入外生冲击变量，将金融监管、经济结构、金融市场化程度、法律制度等纳入到模型中进行实证分析，结果表明有效的金融监管、经济结构的调整、金融市场化程度的深入与法律制度的完善将会减小最优金融结构的偏离所带来的负面影响。
第七章是研究结论与政策建议。通过前文对中国金融结构实证分析的基础之上，讨论了中国金融结构存在的问题，针对中国金融结构提出了相应的优化与调整的对策建议。
Financial structure is the composition of elements, the relationship between thefinancial system and its volume ratio，they mainly includes the financial institutions(industry) structure, financial market structure and price of a financial asset structure.The role of the financial in economic growth and development has reached a consensus,however, the relationship between financial structure and economic development is stillin controversy, the research in Financial structure has developed for nearly half a centurysince Gold Smith's research, it have an immense number of books. From “the financialstructure dichotomy”,“theory of financial services”,“theory of financial law”,“thetheory of financial function”,“theory of financial structure optimization”, the domesticand foreign scholars efforts to adds a powerful argument for the relationship betweenfinancial structure and economic development from different perspectives. There aresome problems still to be solved, for example, What kind of financial structure is themost beneficial to economic development? the existence of the optimal financialstructure? What is The orientation of financial structure optimization? What is theunbalance financial structural? How the financial structure imbalance degree? What iseffect of the unbalance financial structural impact on financial stability? These problemsin the past literature there is no clear answer, or not enough in-depth studied，but “thetheory of optimal financial structure” can make a more accurate answer to this question.Lin put forward the optimal financial structure theory that is a new theory, it is a newfield of financial structure research. The theory of optimal financial structure is abreakthrough, development and complement of traditional financial structure research,however, the research is still in preliminary stage, the theory of optimal financialstructure is still imperfect, and lack theoretical and empirical research. This article isbased on the improved within the framework of optimal financial structure theory, usingthe modern economic analysis tool, by building a new optimal financial structure theoryframework to explain the function mechanism between financial structure and economicdevelopment. This paper build a model of optimal financial structure theory, and carry onthe empirical analysis, trying to answer around financial structure unsolved problems inprevious research. This article answers the question of whether the optimal financial structure exists, the optimal financial structure dynamics and related questions ofdeviating from the optimal financial structure, deviation from the optimal financialstructure affect economic growth? And applying the optimal financial structure theory inChina, analysis of the impact of China's financial structure deviating from the optimal,How to avoid or reduce the negative impact of deviating from the optimal financialstructure, etc.
The second chapter is theory origin of the optimal financial structure. It Mainlysummary and the carding the research literature of financial structure.
The third chapter is the theoretic analysis of optimal financial structure. Based ontheoretic origin of the optimal financial structure, this chapter constructs the theorysystem of the optimal financial structure. The system mainly includes the followingaspects: the model of optimal financial structure theory, the optimal financial structuredynamics,the deviation of optimal financial structure,the optimal financial structureoptimization and adjustment.
The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis of the optimal financial structure. Thissection is based on theoretical analysis of the third chapter, Use multinational sampledata for empirical analysis, attempt to find out the corresponding empirical evidence tosupport the research of theoretical perspectives. Through the empirical test shows that:1.A country exists the optimal financial structure in its economic development process,There are "inverted U" type of relationship between financial structure and economicdevelopment;2.As the legal, cultural, political, religious, economic, financial and otherfactors change, the optimal financial structure dynamically move, so each economy hasits own optimal financial structure. And we design the estimate model of optimalfinancial structure by the endogenous growth model, then, Calculated the optimalfinancial structure of the United States and Germany by it.
The fifth chapter is the optimal financial structure deviation affect financial stability.This section is based on theoretical analysis of the optimal financial structure deviation,design the indicators of degree of deviation from the optimal financial structure, then,empirical analysis combined with33countries in1989-2009panel data. We found thatthere is the negative relationship between the optimal financial structure deviation andfinancial stability. With the growing degree of deviation from the optimal financial structure, the probability of bank crisis and financial crisis Increase, financial stabilitywill drop, financial risk will increase.
The sixth chapter is the optimal financial structure research of China. First of all,this section using statistical methods descriptive analysis financial structure of China, andestimates China's optimal financial structure. On this basis, we build the model ofoptimal financial structure deviation influence economic development, analysis financialstructure that deviate from the optimal how to effect economic development. The resultsshowed that, as China's financial structure deviating from the optimal, China's economicdevelopment levels reduce. Then, the model add exogenous shock variable, we will bringfinancial regulation, economic structure, degree of financial liberalization,the legalsystem into the model for empirical analysis. The results show that, effective financialregulation, adjustment of economic structure, deepening of financial marketizationdegree and the perfection of legal system will Minimize negative effects caused by theoptimal financial structure deviation.
The seventh chapter is policy recommendations of China's financial structureoptimization. Based on the empirical analysis of China's financial structure, we discussthe problems of China's financial structure, and put forward the correspondingcountermeasures and Suggestions for The optimization of China toward the optimalfinancial structure and adjustment.
第二章节最优金融结构理论的理论渊源。主要是对已有的金融结构与经济发展之间的关系、最优金融结构理论的渊源进行梳理。
第三章节最优金融结构理论分析，在前文关于最优金融结构理论的理论渊源的梳理基础上，通过对金融结构与经济发展之间关系，构建了最优金融结构的理论体系，该体系主要从最优金融结构理论模型、最优金融结构动态性、最优金融结构偏离、金融结构趋向最优的优化与调整等构成一个可供实证的总体研究思路。
第四章节最优金融结构的实证分析，本章节是基于第三章节理论分析的结论的基础上,利用可获得的跨国样本数据进行实证分析,企图找出相应的经验论据来支持研究的理论观点。经过实证检验显示：1.一国在其经济发展过程中存在最优金融结构，金融结构与经济发展之间存在着“倒U”型关系；2.随着各国法律、文化、政治、宗教、经济金融等因素的变化最优金融结构发生动态性移动，决定了每个经济体在一定发展阶段都有各自的最优金融结构。并通过内生增长模型，设计了最优金融结构的估算模型，然后分别选取市场主导型国家美国与银行主导型国家德国最为典型代表国进行分析。
第五章节最优金融结构的偏离对金融稳定性的影响。本章节在最优金融结构偏离特征的理论分析基础上，设计金融结构偏离最优程度指标，结合33个国家在1989年-2009年的面板数据进行实证分析，发现金融结构偏离最优程度与金融稳定性之间存在负相关关系，随着金融结构偏离最优程度加大，银行危机与金融危机发生的概率增加，金融稳定性下降，金融风险增加。
第六章中国最优金融结构研究。本章节首先运用统计学方法对中国金融结构进行描述性分析，并估算出实体经济发展所需求的中国最优金融结构估计值。在此基础上，构建中国金融结构偏离最优程度与经济发展的关系模型分析金融结构偏离最优给经济发展带来的影响效果，结果发现，随着中国金融结构偏离最优状态的程度加深，中国经济发展水平降低。然后在对最优金融偏离的模型设置中加入外生冲击变量，将金融监管、经济结构、金融市场化程度、法律制度等纳入到模型中进行实证分析，结果表明有效的金融监管、经济结构的调整、金融市场化程度的深入与法律制度的完善将会减小最优金融结构的偏离所带来的负面影响。
第七章是研究结论与政策建议。通过前文对中国金融结构实证分析的基础之上，讨论了中国金融结构存在的问题，针对中国金融结构提出了相应的优化与调整的对策建议。
Financial structure is the composition of elements, the relationship between thefinancial system and its volume ratio，they mainly includes the financial institutions(industry) structure, financial market structure and price of a financial asset structure.The role of the financial in economic growth and development has reached a consensus,however, the relationship between financial structure and economic development is stillin controversy, the research in Financial structure has developed for nearly half a centurysince Gold Smith's research, it have an immense number of books. From “the financialstructure dichotomy”,“theory of financial services”,“theory of financial law”,“thetheory of financial function”,“theory of financial structure optimization”, the domesticand foreign scholars efforts to adds a powerful argument for the relationship betweenfinancial structure and economic development from different perspectives. There aresome problems still to be solved, for example, What kind of financial structure is themost beneficial to economic development? the existence of the optimal financialstructure? What is The orientation of financial structure optimization? What is theunbalance financial structural? How the financial structure imbalance degree? What iseffect of the unbalance financial structural impact on financial stability? These problemsin the past literature there is no clear answer, or not enough in-depth studied，but “thetheory of optimal financial structure” can make a more accurate answer to this question.Lin put forward the optimal financial structure theory that is a new theory, it is a newfield of financial structure research. The theory of optimal financial structure is abreakthrough, development and complement of traditional financial structure research,however, the research is still in preliminary stage, the theory of optimal financialstructure is still imperfect, and lack theoretical and empirical research. This article isbased on the improved within the framework of optimal financial structure theory, usingthe modern economic analysis tool, by building a new optimal financial structure theoryframework to explain the function mechanism between financial structure and economicdevelopment. This paper build a model of optimal financial structure theory, and carry onthe empirical analysis, trying to answer around financial structure unsolved problems inprevious research. This article answers the question of whether the optimal financial structure exists, the optimal financial structure dynamics and related questions ofdeviating from the optimal financial structure, deviation from the optimal financialstructure affect economic growth? And applying the optimal financial structure theory inChina, analysis of the impact of China's financial structure deviating from the optimal,How to avoid or reduce the negative impact of deviating from the optimal financialstructure, etc.
The second chapter is theory origin of the optimal financial structure. It Mainlysummary and the carding the research literature of financial structure.
The third chapter is the theoretic analysis of optimal financial structure. Based ontheoretic origin of the optimal financial structure, this chapter constructs the theorysystem of the optimal financial structure. The system mainly includes the followingaspects: the model of optimal financial structure theory, the optimal financial structuredynamics,the deviation of optimal financial structure,the optimal financial structureoptimization and adjustment.
The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis of the optimal financial structure. Thissection is based on theoretical analysis of the third chapter, Use multinational sampledata for empirical analysis, attempt to find out the corresponding empirical evidence tosupport the research of theoretical perspectives. Through the empirical test shows that:1.A country exists the optimal financial structure in its economic development process,There are "inverted U" type of relationship between financial structure and economicdevelopment;2.As the legal, cultural, political, religious, economic, financial and otherfactors change, the optimal financial structure dynamically move, so each economy hasits own optimal financial structure. And we design the estimate model of optimalfinancial structure by the endogenous growth model, then, Calculated the optimalfinancial structure of the United States and Germany by it.
The fifth chapter is the optimal financial structure deviation affect financial stability.This section is based on theoretical analysis of the optimal financial structure deviation,design the indicators of degree of deviation from the optimal financial structure, then,empirical analysis combined with33countries in1989-2009panel data. We found thatthere is the negative relationship between the optimal financial structure deviation andfinancial stability. With the growing degree of deviation from the optimal financial structure, the probability of bank crisis and financial crisis Increase, financial stabilitywill drop, financial risk will increase.
The sixth chapter is the optimal financial structure research of China. First of all,this section using statistical methods descriptive analysis financial structure of China, andestimates China's optimal financial structure. On this basis, we build the model ofoptimal financial structure deviation influence economic development, analysis financialstructure that deviate from the optimal how to effect economic development. The resultsshowed that, as China's financial structure deviating from the optimal, China's economicdevelopment levels reduce. Then, the model add exogenous shock variable, we will bringfinancial regulation, economic structure, degree of financial liberalization,the legalsystem into the model for empirical analysis. The results show that, effective financialregulation, adjustment of economic structure, deepening of financial marketizationdegree and the perfection of legal system will Minimize negative effects caused by theoptimal financial structure deviation.
The seventh chapter is policy recommendations of China's financial structureoptimization. Based on the empirical analysis of China's financial structure, we discussthe problems of China's financial structure, and put forward the correspondingcountermeasures and Suggestions for The optimization of China toward the optimalfinancial structure and adjustment.
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