煤矿安全生产评价方法及预警模型研究
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摘要
煤矿安全事故频发是我国煤矿安全生产管理工作面临的一个重大难题。通过分析我国煤炭工业在国民经济发展中的重要地位,指出煤矿安全是煤矿企业健康、可持续发展的关键问题,而建立和完善安全法规体系、加强安全评价技术及其方法的研究,是煤矿安全发展的必然趋势。另外,由于煤矿生产是一个动态过程,我们不仅要了解现在的安全生产情况,更要预测未来,因此有必要构建煤矿安全预警系统掌控煤矿安全的非常态波动。
本文以确保煤矿安全为主要目的,对构建煤矿安全评价方法和预警模型进行了系统分析。首先,对安全评价和预警系统研究进行回顾,指出了国内外研究中存在的不足,为下文安全评价方法和预警系统研究奠定基础。其次,对煤矿安全事故产生机理从事故成因、人因失误、事故致因三个角度进行了广泛而细致的分析,为本文分析和构建煤矿安全评价和预警模型提供了充足的理论基础。第三,在充分考虑影响煤矿安全各种因素的基础上,构建了较为全面的煤矿安全评价指标体系,并运用层次分析法对5类25个指标进行安全评价,得出安全评价指数。第四,构建了基于神经网络理论的煤矿安全预警模型。针对上述研究,本文从宏观、中观和微观三个层面提出了抑制我国煤矿安全事故发生的对策和建议。最后,以某国有重点企业为对象进行实证研究,所得出的安全评价和预警分析的结果与该企业实际情况基本吻合,表明本项研究所建立的安全评价模型和预警模型有效可行,实用价值较高。
The coal mine safety accident is a significant difficult problem of coal mine safety manufacturing management to face in our country. By analyzing our country coal industry important position in national economy, pointing out the question of sustainable which is, coal mine safety is colliery undertaking health, sustained development. Also, building and perfecting safe law and regulation system, sharpening safety appraises technology and their method, which is the inevitable trend in coal mine safety development. Other ways, because of the coal mine is a development process, not only we need to know safety work situation now, but also need to forecast future. Therefore, be necessary constructing the coal mine safety early warning system to control the coal mine safety random fluctuation.
The main body of this report is taking coal mine safety as major objective, analysis on structuring coal mine safety appraising method and early warning model. Firstly, recollect the analysis of safe valuation and early warning system to point out the existence deficiency between China and abroad. To establish a basis for studying the safety appraises method and early warning system. Secondly, take a broad and meticulous analysis on coal mine safety accident mechanism from three part, which are accident cause of formation, accident cause of artificial factor and the coalmine accident causation theory. This sufficient rationale being used to analyze and structure coal mine safety valuation and the early warning model. The third, basic on consider the various factor affecting coal mine safety to structure all-round coal mine safety appraising index system. And wield the arrangement of ideas analysis law to carry out safe valuation on 5 kinds and 25 indies, to get the exponent of safety appraises. And the forth, take neural networks as basis; make use of BP neural networks to apply to early warning field maturity, discuses the coal mine safety early warning model. Be aimed at above-mentioned, this report suggests countermeasure and suggestion to restraint our country coal mine safety accident happens from macroscopic and microcosmic. At last, demonstration study taking some key state-owned enterprise, the analytical result of safe valuation and early warning is reality fits basically with this enterprise. Indicate effective and practical value, which this report is building the safety appraises model and the early warning model.
本文以确保煤矿安全为主要目的,对构建煤矿安全评价方法和预警模型进行了系统分析。首先,对安全评价和预警系统研究进行回顾,指出了国内外研究中存在的不足,为下文安全评价方法和预警系统研究奠定基础。其次,对煤矿安全事故产生机理从事故成因、人因失误、事故致因三个角度进行了广泛而细致的分析,为本文分析和构建煤矿安全评价和预警模型提供了充足的理论基础。第三,在充分考虑影响煤矿安全各种因素的基础上,构建了较为全面的煤矿安全评价指标体系,并运用层次分析法对5类25个指标进行安全评价,得出安全评价指数。第四,构建了基于神经网络理论的煤矿安全预警模型。针对上述研究,本文从宏观、中观和微观三个层面提出了抑制我国煤矿安全事故发生的对策和建议。最后,以某国有重点企业为对象进行实证研究,所得出的安全评价和预警分析的结果与该企业实际情况基本吻合,表明本项研究所建立的安全评价模型和预警模型有效可行,实用价值较高。
The coal mine safety accident is a significant difficult problem of coal mine safety manufacturing management to face in our country. By analyzing our country coal industry important position in national economy, pointing out the question of sustainable which is, coal mine safety is colliery undertaking health, sustained development. Also, building and perfecting safe law and regulation system, sharpening safety appraises technology and their method, which is the inevitable trend in coal mine safety development. Other ways, because of the coal mine is a development process, not only we need to know safety work situation now, but also need to forecast future. Therefore, be necessary constructing the coal mine safety early warning system to control the coal mine safety random fluctuation.
The main body of this report is taking coal mine safety as major objective, analysis on structuring coal mine safety appraising method and early warning model. Firstly, recollect the analysis of safe valuation and early warning system to point out the existence deficiency between China and abroad. To establish a basis for studying the safety appraises method and early warning system. Secondly, take a broad and meticulous analysis on coal mine safety accident mechanism from three part, which are accident cause of formation, accident cause of artificial factor and the coalmine accident causation theory. This sufficient rationale being used to analyze and structure coal mine safety valuation and the early warning model. The third, basic on consider the various factor affecting coal mine safety to structure all-round coal mine safety appraising index system. And wield the arrangement of ideas analysis law to carry out safe valuation on 5 kinds and 25 indies, to get the exponent of safety appraises. And the forth, take neural networks as basis; make use of BP neural networks to apply to early warning field maturity, discuses the coal mine safety early warning model. Be aimed at above-mentioned, this report suggests countermeasure and suggestion to restraint our country coal mine safety accident happens from macroscopic and microcosmic. At last, demonstration study taking some key state-owned enterprise, the analytical result of safe valuation and early warning is reality fits basically with this enterprise. Indicate effective and practical value, which this report is building the safety appraises model and the early warning model.
引文
[1]李毅中.狠抓工作落实坚决遏制重特大事故推动安全生产状况稳定好转《劳动保护》2006.3.
[2]范维唐.我国安全生产形势、差距和对策[J].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2003年6月,P97-P107.
[3]国家安全生产监督管理总局网站:http://www.chinasafety.gov.cn
[4]吴宗之,高进东,张兴凯.工业危险辨识与评价[M].气象出版社,2000.
[5] N. Okada, et al.. Integrated Research on Methodological Development of Urban Diagnosis for Disaster Risk and its Applications. Annuals of Disas, Prev. Res. Inst., Kyoto Univ., NO.47 C, 2004. 1-8.
[6] H.S.B. Duzgun. Analysis of roof fall hazards and risk assessment for Zonguldak coal basin underground mines. International Journal of Coal Geology, 2005, 64, (1-2): 104-115.
[7] Peter Montague. Reducing the harms associated with risk assessments. Environmental Impact Assessment Review. 2004, 24(7-8): 733-748.
[8] Usha Shama. Use of recursive methods in Fuzzy fault tree analysis: an aid to quantitative risk analysis. Reliability Engineering and Safety. 2001(11):219.
[9] M.Fllipek. Safety and accidents prevention in the polish hard coal mining 26th international conference of Safety in mining Research institute. 1999(5).
[10] NNSA, 2001. The first batch of review Comments for the Guangdong Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant Probabilistic Safety Assessment report.
[11] David M. Siegel, Vasilios H. Frankos and Marvin A. Schneiderman. Formaldehyde risk assessment for occupationally exposed workers. Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology. 1983, 3(4): 355-371.
[12] Robert A. Bari. Decision making and probabilistic risk assessment. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 1986, 93(2-3): 341-348.
[13]王显政等.煤矿安全新技术[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社.2000:98-124.
[14]鲁青,徐文尚,刘志海.基于FTA的矿井提升机钢丝绳断绳故障分析[J].煤矿机械,2006年02期:92-96.
[15]冯兴隆,陈日辉.矿山坠井伤亡事故的事故树分析[J].山东煤炭科技,2006年01期.
[16]刘亚立,陈日辉,冯兴隆.某矿山冒顶片帮事故的事故树分析[J].矿业快报, 2004, (05).
[17]陈勇刚,田水承,孙斌.基于分析法安全评价指标的确定[J].陕西煤炭, 2003年03期.
[18]凌学文.基于FTA的矿井运输安全评价指标的确定[J].陕西煤炭, 2006年01期.
[19]沈斐敏.安全系统工程理论与应用[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社, 2001.
[20]汪培庄,李洪兴.模糊系统理论与模糊计算机[M].北京:科学出版社, 1996.
[21]曾宪禄.基于灰色关联分析的矿井通风系统优化评判[J].矿业工程. 2005, 05.
[22]闫乐林,徐精彩,许满贵等.未确知数学在煤矿安全预评价中的应用[J].矿业安全与环保, 2004, Vol.31(2): 24-27.
[23]施式亮,王海桥.矿井安全非线性动力学[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社. 2001.
[24] Altman. Financial ratios discriminant analysis and prediction of corporate bankruptcy [J]. Journal of Finance.1968, 23(4):589-609.
[25] Matthieu Bussiere, Marcel Fratzscher. Towards a new early warning system of financial crises, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2006, 25(6): 953-973.
[26] V.F. Grasso, J.L. Beck, G. Manfredi. Automated decision procedure for earthquake early warning, Engineering Structures, 2006.
[27] Alessio Ciarlone, Giorgio Trebeschi. Designing an early warning system for debt crises, Emerging Markets Review, 2005,6(4):376-395.
[28] Tae Yoon Kim, Kyong Joo Oh, Insuk Sohn, Changha Hwang. Usefulness of artificial neural networks for early warning system of economic crisis, Expert Systems with Applications, 2004, 26(4): 583-590.
[29]顾海兵,余丽亚.未雨绸缪-宏观经济问题预警研究[M].北京:经济日报出版社,1993.
[30]刘志强.国外预警金融危机的方法评价[J].世界经济,2000,(7):16-21.
[31]王林,唐晓东.经济波动与企业预警[J].经济体制改革,2000,(2):90-93.
[32]佟金萍,杜军.宏观经济预警支持系统初探[J].江苏商论,2003,3.
[33]杨保安,季海.基于ANN与ES混合系统的银行贷款风险预警研究[J].东华大学学报(自然科学版),2003,1.
[34]关键.定量定性相结合的企业综合预警方法研究[J].西安财经学院学报,2004,17(1).
[35]贺宝成.浅谈企业危机预警系统的构建[J].现代企业,2004,3.
[36]宫运华,罗云.安全生产预警管理研究[J].中国煤炭,2006,(10):67-69.
[37]苏东亮.对重大危险源安全预警系统的探讨[J].安防科技,2005,(6):53-54.
[38]迟春洁.能源安全预警研究[J].统计与决策,2006,(22):29-31.
[39]金磊,徐德蜀,罗云.中国2l世纪减灾防灾战略[M].开封,河南大学出版社.1998.
[40] Greenwood, M.&Woods, H.M.The Incidence of Idustrial Accidents upon Idividuals with Specific Reference to Multiple Accidents(Report No.4).London Industiral Fatigue Research Board,1919.
[41]劳动部劳动保护研究所.重大危险源的评价和宏观控制技术课题鉴定资料.附件二、三, 1995.
[42]机械工业部质量安全司编.机械工业安全检查表[M].北京:机械工业出版社, 1998.
[43]国家安全生产管理局编.安全评价[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社, 2002, 10.
[44]彭朝霞等.全国煤矿重大事故浅析[J].煤矿安全, 1998(7): 35-37.
[45]程卫民.矿井瓦斯、粉尘状态危险安全评价系统及其应用.徐州:中国矿业大学.1997.
[46]金菊良,张礼兵,张少文.层次分析法在水资源工程环境影响评价中的应用[J].系统工程理论方法应用, 2004, 13(2):187-192.
[47]陈修兰.层次分析法应用于经济决策中的实例分析.山西煤炭管理干部学院学报, 2006, 13(2):13-15.
[48]岳超源.决策理论与方法[M].北京:科学出版社, 2003.
[49]顾海兵.未雨绸缪——中国工农业经济预警问题[M].北京:统计出版社, 1994.
[50]高文志.人工神经网络的发展、研究内容及应用综述[J].山东电子, 1998.4.
[51]牛强.基于自组织神经网络的煤矿安全预警系统[J].计算机工程与设计, 2006(5).
[52] Simon Haykin.神经网络原理[M].北京:机械工业出版社, 2004, 1-15.
[53]袁泉,胡玉才,孙永厚.基于BP神经网络的预测方法应用研究.农业系统科学与综合研究, 1998.
[54]杜升之.基于神经网络的智能预测系统及应用.天津工业大学研究生学位论文. 2001.
[55]葛哲学,孙志强等.神经网络理论与MATLAB R2007实现[M].北京:电子工业出版社, 2007.
[2]范维唐.我国安全生产形势、差距和对策[J].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2003年6月,P97-P107.
[3]国家安全生产监督管理总局网站:http://www.chinasafety.gov.cn
[4]吴宗之,高进东,张兴凯.工业危险辨识与评价[M].气象出版社,2000.
[5] N. Okada, et al.. Integrated Research on Methodological Development of Urban Diagnosis for Disaster Risk and its Applications. Annuals of Disas, Prev. Res. Inst., Kyoto Univ., NO.47 C, 2004. 1-8.
[6] H.S.B. Duzgun. Analysis of roof fall hazards and risk assessment for Zonguldak coal basin underground mines. International Journal of Coal Geology, 2005, 64, (1-2): 104-115.
[7] Peter Montague. Reducing the harms associated with risk assessments. Environmental Impact Assessment Review. 2004, 24(7-8): 733-748.
[8] Usha Shama. Use of recursive methods in Fuzzy fault tree analysis: an aid to quantitative risk analysis. Reliability Engineering and Safety. 2001(11):219.
[9] M.Fllipek. Safety and accidents prevention in the polish hard coal mining 26th international conference of Safety in mining Research institute. 1999(5).
[10] NNSA, 2001. The first batch of review Comments for the Guangdong Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant Probabilistic Safety Assessment report.
[11] David M. Siegel, Vasilios H. Frankos and Marvin A. Schneiderman. Formaldehyde risk assessment for occupationally exposed workers. Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology. 1983, 3(4): 355-371.
[12] Robert A. Bari. Decision making and probabilistic risk assessment. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 1986, 93(2-3): 341-348.
[13]王显政等.煤矿安全新技术[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社.2000:98-124.
[14]鲁青,徐文尚,刘志海.基于FTA的矿井提升机钢丝绳断绳故障分析[J].煤矿机械,2006年02期:92-96.
[15]冯兴隆,陈日辉.矿山坠井伤亡事故的事故树分析[J].山东煤炭科技,2006年01期.
[16]刘亚立,陈日辉,冯兴隆.某矿山冒顶片帮事故的事故树分析[J].矿业快报, 2004, (05).
[17]陈勇刚,田水承,孙斌.基于分析法安全评价指标的确定[J].陕西煤炭, 2003年03期.
[18]凌学文.基于FTA的矿井运输安全评价指标的确定[J].陕西煤炭, 2006年01期.
[19]沈斐敏.安全系统工程理论与应用[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社, 2001.
[20]汪培庄,李洪兴.模糊系统理论与模糊计算机[M].北京:科学出版社, 1996.
[21]曾宪禄.基于灰色关联分析的矿井通风系统优化评判[J].矿业工程. 2005, 05.
[22]闫乐林,徐精彩,许满贵等.未确知数学在煤矿安全预评价中的应用[J].矿业安全与环保, 2004, Vol.31(2): 24-27.
[23]施式亮,王海桥.矿井安全非线性动力学[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社. 2001.
[24] Altman. Financial ratios discriminant analysis and prediction of corporate bankruptcy [J]. Journal of Finance.1968, 23(4):589-609.
[25] Matthieu Bussiere, Marcel Fratzscher. Towards a new early warning system of financial crises, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2006, 25(6): 953-973.
[26] V.F. Grasso, J.L. Beck, G. Manfredi. Automated decision procedure for earthquake early warning, Engineering Structures, 2006.
[27] Alessio Ciarlone, Giorgio Trebeschi. Designing an early warning system for debt crises, Emerging Markets Review, 2005,6(4):376-395.
[28] Tae Yoon Kim, Kyong Joo Oh, Insuk Sohn, Changha Hwang. Usefulness of artificial neural networks for early warning system of economic crisis, Expert Systems with Applications, 2004, 26(4): 583-590.
[29]顾海兵,余丽亚.未雨绸缪-宏观经济问题预警研究[M].北京:经济日报出版社,1993.
[30]刘志强.国外预警金融危机的方法评价[J].世界经济,2000,(7):16-21.
[31]王林,唐晓东.经济波动与企业预警[J].经济体制改革,2000,(2):90-93.
[32]佟金萍,杜军.宏观经济预警支持系统初探[J].江苏商论,2003,3.
[33]杨保安,季海.基于ANN与ES混合系统的银行贷款风险预警研究[J].东华大学学报(自然科学版),2003,1.
[34]关键.定量定性相结合的企业综合预警方法研究[J].西安财经学院学报,2004,17(1).
[35]贺宝成.浅谈企业危机预警系统的构建[J].现代企业,2004,3.
[36]宫运华,罗云.安全生产预警管理研究[J].中国煤炭,2006,(10):67-69.
[37]苏东亮.对重大危险源安全预警系统的探讨[J].安防科技,2005,(6):53-54.
[38]迟春洁.能源安全预警研究[J].统计与决策,2006,(22):29-31.
[39]金磊,徐德蜀,罗云.中国2l世纪减灾防灾战略[M].开封,河南大学出版社.1998.
[40] Greenwood, M.&Woods, H.M.The Incidence of Idustrial Accidents upon Idividuals with Specific Reference to Multiple Accidents(Report No.4).London Industiral Fatigue Research Board,1919.
[41]劳动部劳动保护研究所.重大危险源的评价和宏观控制技术课题鉴定资料.附件二、三, 1995.
[42]机械工业部质量安全司编.机械工业安全检查表[M].北京:机械工业出版社, 1998.
[43]国家安全生产管理局编.安全评价[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社, 2002, 10.
[44]彭朝霞等.全国煤矿重大事故浅析[J].煤矿安全, 1998(7): 35-37.
[45]程卫民.矿井瓦斯、粉尘状态危险安全评价系统及其应用.徐州:中国矿业大学.1997.
[46]金菊良,张礼兵,张少文.层次分析法在水资源工程环境影响评价中的应用[J].系统工程理论方法应用, 2004, 13(2):187-192.
[47]陈修兰.层次分析法应用于经济决策中的实例分析.山西煤炭管理干部学院学报, 2006, 13(2):13-15.
[48]岳超源.决策理论与方法[M].北京:科学出版社, 2003.
[49]顾海兵.未雨绸缪——中国工农业经济预警问题[M].北京:统计出版社, 1994.
[50]高文志.人工神经网络的发展、研究内容及应用综述[J].山东电子, 1998.4.
[51]牛强.基于自组织神经网络的煤矿安全预警系统[J].计算机工程与设计, 2006(5).
[52] Simon Haykin.神经网络原理[M].北京:机械工业出版社, 2004, 1-15.
[53]袁泉,胡玉才,孙永厚.基于BP神经网络的预测方法应用研究.农业系统科学与综合研究, 1998.
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