自然资源开发对经济增长作用的区域差异研究
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摘要
传统经济学理论认为,良好的资源禀赋是经济增长的基础,但自20世纪中后期以来,很多资源导向型经济增长模式的失败以及许多资源匮乏的国家和地区的快速崛起,使得经济学家们开始重新审视自然资源开发与经济增长的关系,进而提出了“资源诅咒”假说。但是,目前学术界对于自然资源开发对经济增长究竟是“祝福”还是“诅咒”尚存在争议。
就中国而言,自然资源禀赋较好的中西部地区,其经济发展水平在中国区域经济发展格局中长期处于落后状态,出现了所谓“富饶的贫困”。针对这一令人费解的现象,众多学者结合“资源诅咒”假说进行了大量研究,涌现出了许多富有价值的文献和研究成果。但是,现有绝大多数文献是在单调的线性假定条件下,对自然资源开发与经济增长的关系进行了实证检验和理论阐释,从而无法对“资源祝福”和“资源诅咒”案例并存的事实给出合理解释。
本文针对现有研究中存在的不足和争议,利用2003-2011年中国省际面板数据样本,并采用多种识别方式和计量方法就自然资源开发对经济增长作用的区域差异及门槛效应进行了实证和规范相结合的研究。本文的研究结论归纳如下：
第一,自然资源开发对经济增长的作用在中国三大区域层面上存在显著差异,自然资源开发对东部地区的经济增长产生了非常显著的促进作用,但对广大中西部地区而言,因为过度开发自然资源和缺乏较好的资源转化增值能力,所以未能从资源开发中获得正面效应；
第二,自然资源开发与经济增长之间存在显著的非线性关系,当自然资源开发度小于一定门槛值时,自然资源开发对区域经济增长具有显著的促进作用,区域经济发展处于“资源祝福”状态,而自然资源开发度一旦超门槛值时,自然资源开发就会阻碍经济增长,使区域经济发展落入“资源诅咒”陷阱；
第三,制造业发展、市场化程度和金融发展在中国自然资源开发与经济增长之间的非线性关系中扮演着重要角色,在这些变量超过一定门槛值的条件下,自然资源开发才能促进地区经济增长,即制造业发展、市场化程度和金融发展在规避“资源诅咒”方面发挥着重要作用；
第四,自然资源开发与制造业发展、市场化程度和金融发展之间处于一种此消彼长的状态,自然资源开发会挤出以上三者而制约经济增长,反过来,上述三个因素的改进又可以填补资源开发活动的先天缺陷,指引其真正成为经济增长的“福音”。
因此,本文认为自然资源开发并非总能成为经济增长的助推器,“资源诅咒”也并非是资源开发活动的必然结果。中西部地区由于过度依赖资源开发,且资源转化吸收能力尚弱,是其发生“资源诅咒”的主要原因。所以,要想规避“资源诅咒”,就要科学开发和合理利用自然资源,加强人力资本积累和促进技术创新,推进制造业发展,加快市场化进程,提升金融发展水平,进而通过产业结构优化提高要素配置效率来弥补资源开发的先天不足,将资源优势真正转化为经济优势。
Good resources endowment is regarded as the foundation of the economic growth by traditional economic theories. However, with the failure of many resource-oriented models of economic growth and the rapid development of regions and countries which are short of resources, economists reexamined closely at the relationships between natural resources exploitation and economic development and they further proposed the hypothesis of "resource curse". In fact, whether resources exploitation in economic development is a "blessing" or a "curse" is still in dispute in the academic field.
As far as the level of economic development is concerned, the central and western regions of China with natural resources gift have been in a backward state for a long time in Chinese regional economic development pattern, and the so-called "the poverty of plenty" has made its appearance. In reaction to the perplexing phenomenon, a great number of scholars have conducted extensive research based on the hypothesis of "resource curse" and produced numerous valuable works and research findings. But, most of the present investigations are empirical tests and theoretical interpretations based on linear assumption, which failed to offer reasonable explanation for the co-existence of "resource blessing" and "resource curse".
According to the existing limitations and controversy, this paper, based on empirical and normative study, systematically investigates the regional differences and the threshold effect of natural resources exploitation in economic growth. The conclusion of the research is as follows:
First of all, there exists significant difference of the roles of natural resources exploitation in the economic development among three large regions of China. Specifically, the exploitation of natural resources exerts a marked promoting effect on the economic growth in eastern China, but it does not bring about positive effects for the vast central and western regions of China because of their over-exploitation and inability of resources transforming and value-adding.
Secondly, there is a non-linear relationship between natural resources exploitation and economic development. When the exploitation of natural resources is less than a certain threshold value, it will greatly promote the regional economic growth which is in a "resource blessing" state. When the exploitation of natural resources is more than a certain threshold value, it will inhibit the progress of economy, which leads the regional economic progress into a "resource curse" trap.
Thirdly, development of manufacturing industries, degree of marketization and financial development act important roles in the non-linear relationship between natural resources exploitation and economic development. Only when these variables become more than a certain threshold value, can the natural resources exploitation promote the regional economic development. In other words, these factors can play a crucial role in avoiding "resource cures".
Finally, natural resources exploitation, development of manufacturing industries, degree of marketization and financial development are in an antagonistic condition. Natural resources development can squeeze out the other three factors and restrain the economic growth. Conversely, the three factors mentioned above can improve and remedy the inborn deficiency of human activities of resources exploitation, leading to a real "blessing" for economic growth.
Therefore, this research paper concludes that natural resources exploitation is not necessarily the promoter of economic growth, and "resource curse" is not always the inevitable outcome of activities of resources exploitation. The central and western regions of China excessively depend on natural resources exploitation and they are weak at resource transformation and absorption, which is one of the main reasons of "resource curse". Thus, in order to avoid the "resource curse", we are supposed to scientifically explore and utilize natural resources, strengthen the accumulation of human capital and improve technical creativity, promote the development of manufacturing industries, speed up the process of marketization, raise the level of financial development, and then make good use of the optimization of industrial structure to improve resource allocative efficiency and make up the natural limitations of resources exploitation, transforming resources advantage into economic advantage.
就中国而言,自然资源禀赋较好的中西部地区,其经济发展水平在中国区域经济发展格局中长期处于落后状态,出现了所谓“富饶的贫困”。针对这一令人费解的现象,众多学者结合“资源诅咒”假说进行了大量研究,涌现出了许多富有价值的文献和研究成果。但是,现有绝大多数文献是在单调的线性假定条件下,对自然资源开发与经济增长的关系进行了实证检验和理论阐释,从而无法对“资源祝福”和“资源诅咒”案例并存的事实给出合理解释。
本文针对现有研究中存在的不足和争议,利用2003-2011年中国省际面板数据样本,并采用多种识别方式和计量方法就自然资源开发对经济增长作用的区域差异及门槛效应进行了实证和规范相结合的研究。本文的研究结论归纳如下：
第一,自然资源开发对经济增长的作用在中国三大区域层面上存在显著差异,自然资源开发对东部地区的经济增长产生了非常显著的促进作用,但对广大中西部地区而言,因为过度开发自然资源和缺乏较好的资源转化增值能力,所以未能从资源开发中获得正面效应；
第二,自然资源开发与经济增长之间存在显著的非线性关系,当自然资源开发度小于一定门槛值时,自然资源开发对区域经济增长具有显著的促进作用,区域经济发展处于“资源祝福”状态,而自然资源开发度一旦超门槛值时,自然资源开发就会阻碍经济增长,使区域经济发展落入“资源诅咒”陷阱；
第三,制造业发展、市场化程度和金融发展在中国自然资源开发与经济增长之间的非线性关系中扮演着重要角色,在这些变量超过一定门槛值的条件下,自然资源开发才能促进地区经济增长,即制造业发展、市场化程度和金融发展在规避“资源诅咒”方面发挥着重要作用；
第四,自然资源开发与制造业发展、市场化程度和金融发展之间处于一种此消彼长的状态,自然资源开发会挤出以上三者而制约经济增长,反过来,上述三个因素的改进又可以填补资源开发活动的先天缺陷,指引其真正成为经济增长的“福音”。
因此,本文认为自然资源开发并非总能成为经济增长的助推器,“资源诅咒”也并非是资源开发活动的必然结果。中西部地区由于过度依赖资源开发,且资源转化吸收能力尚弱,是其发生“资源诅咒”的主要原因。所以,要想规避“资源诅咒”,就要科学开发和合理利用自然资源,加强人力资本积累和促进技术创新,推进制造业发展,加快市场化进程,提升金融发展水平,进而通过产业结构优化提高要素配置效率来弥补资源开发的先天不足,将资源优势真正转化为经济优势。
Good resources endowment is regarded as the foundation of the economic growth by traditional economic theories. However, with the failure of many resource-oriented models of economic growth and the rapid development of regions and countries which are short of resources, economists reexamined closely at the relationships between natural resources exploitation and economic development and they further proposed the hypothesis of "resource curse". In fact, whether resources exploitation in economic development is a "blessing" or a "curse" is still in dispute in the academic field.
As far as the level of economic development is concerned, the central and western regions of China with natural resources gift have been in a backward state for a long time in Chinese regional economic development pattern, and the so-called "the poverty of plenty" has made its appearance. In reaction to the perplexing phenomenon, a great number of scholars have conducted extensive research based on the hypothesis of "resource curse" and produced numerous valuable works and research findings. But, most of the present investigations are empirical tests and theoretical interpretations based on linear assumption, which failed to offer reasonable explanation for the co-existence of "resource blessing" and "resource curse".
According to the existing limitations and controversy, this paper, based on empirical and normative study, systematically investigates the regional differences and the threshold effect of natural resources exploitation in economic growth. The conclusion of the research is as follows:
First of all, there exists significant difference of the roles of natural resources exploitation in the economic development among three large regions of China. Specifically, the exploitation of natural resources exerts a marked promoting effect on the economic growth in eastern China, but it does not bring about positive effects for the vast central and western regions of China because of their over-exploitation and inability of resources transforming and value-adding.
Secondly, there is a non-linear relationship between natural resources exploitation and economic development. When the exploitation of natural resources is less than a certain threshold value, it will greatly promote the regional economic growth which is in a "resource blessing" state. When the exploitation of natural resources is more than a certain threshold value, it will inhibit the progress of economy, which leads the regional economic progress into a "resource curse" trap.
Thirdly, development of manufacturing industries, degree of marketization and financial development act important roles in the non-linear relationship between natural resources exploitation and economic development. Only when these variables become more than a certain threshold value, can the natural resources exploitation promote the regional economic development. In other words, these factors can play a crucial role in avoiding "resource cures".
Finally, natural resources exploitation, development of manufacturing industries, degree of marketization and financial development are in an antagonistic condition. Natural resources development can squeeze out the other three factors and restrain the economic growth. Conversely, the three factors mentioned above can improve and remedy the inborn deficiency of human activities of resources exploitation, leading to a real "blessing" for economic growth.
Therefore, this research paper concludes that natural resources exploitation is not necessarily the promoter of economic growth, and "resource curse" is not always the inevitable outcome of activities of resources exploitation. The central and western regions of China excessively depend on natural resources exploitation and they are weak at resource transformation and absorption, which is one of the main reasons of "resource curse". Thus, in order to avoid the "resource curse", we are supposed to scientifically explore and utilize natural resources, strengthen the accumulation of human capital and improve technical creativity, promote the development of manufacturing industries, speed up the process of marketization, raise the level of financial development, and then make good use of the optimization of industrial structure to improve resource allocative efficiency and make up the natural limitations of resources exploitation, transforming resources advantage into economic advantage.
引文
① 东部地区包括北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东、海南。
② 中部地区包括吉林、黑龙江、山西、河南、湖南、湖北、安徽、江西。
③ 西部地区包括内蒙古、新疆、宁夏、陕西、甘肃、青海、四川、重庆、云南、广西、西藏、贵州。
① 转引自马克思《资本论》(第1卷),北京：人民出版社,1975,57-58.
① 邵帅,杨莉莉.自然资源丰裕、资源产业依赖于中国区域经济增长[J].管理世界,2010(9):26-44.方颖,纪衍,赵扬.中国是否存在“资源诅咒”[J].世界经济,2011(4):144-160.
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① Sala-i-Martin X, Subramanian A. Addressing the natural resource curse:An illustration from Nigeria[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research,2003.
① 转引自Sala-i-Martin X, Subramanian A. Addressing the natural resource curse:An illustration from Nigeria, 2003.
② 本部分内容重点参考了Sarraf M, Jiwanji M. Beating the resource curse[J]. The case of Botswana, Environment Department, World Bank, Washington DC,2001.
① 转引自张复明.资源型经济：理论解释、内在机制与应用研究[博士论文].太原:山西大学,2007.
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② 中部地区包括吉林、黑龙江、山西、河南、湖南、湖北、安徽、江西。
③ 西部地区包括内蒙古、新疆、宁夏、陕西、甘肃、青海、四川、重庆、云南、广西、西藏、贵州。
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① 转引自Sala-i-Martin X, Subramanian A. Addressing the natural resource curse:An illustration from Nigeria, 2003.
② 本部分内容重点参考了Sarraf M, Jiwanji M. Beating the resource curse[J]. The case of Botswana, Environment Department, World Bank, Washington DC,2001.
① 转引自张复明.资源型经济：理论解释、内在机制与应用研究[博士论文].太原:山西大学,2007.
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