中国林产品流通效率实证研究
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摘要
林产品流通是商品流通的重要组成部分,对连接林产品生产与消费、协调各方利益关系等方面起到重要作用。作为现代林业发展体系的核心内容,提高林产品流通效率不仅可以保证林产品生产者和流通商的利润、增加林农和职工的收入、满足消费者的需求,同时可以保障生态安全、粮食安全、能源安全、经济安全,维护我国林业产业和社会的可持续发展。然而,诸多因素造成中国林产品流通效率偏低,影响了上述目标的实现。当前专门研究林产品流通效率的文献较少,亟待加强研究。本研究主要作了以下工作：
首先,梳理了国内外林产品流通效率研究文献理论。对林业经济理论、流通理论、效率理论、竞争力理论、利益相关者理论等与林产品流通效率问题研究有关的理论进行了阐述与分析,对林产品流通效率与森林资源水平以及可持续发展之间的内在机理进行了剖析,为可持续发展背景下的林产品流通效率研究打下了较好的理论基础。对中国林产品流通的历史和现状进行了考察和分析,分别从林产品供给森林资源基础、流通管理体制、流通水平等方面对俄罗斯、美国、日本及中国的林产品流通进行了国际比较。
第二,构建了多维视角的林产品流通效率评价指标体系。该评价指标体系由三个方面(社会和生态环境、林农林业职工和消费者、林产品生产商和经销商)的18个指标构成,体现了林产品流通相关者的利益,并尽量兼顾了林业的社会、经济和生态效益的平衡。
第三,对1996—2010年中国林产品流通效率评价及其影响因素进行了实证分析。用因子分析法对中国宏观意义上的林产品流通效率指标数据进行实证分析后认为,林产品流通效率长期趋势向上,但也有急剧波动之时,林产品流通效率受国家产业政策和社会发展环境的影响较大。对影响林产品流通效率的主要因素进行协整分析后认为,在主要影响因素中,林产品市场交易条件最直接,作用最大；交通条件次之,但起到重要的保障作用；国家对林业的财政投入影响相对较为间接,但起到重要的长期支撑作用。
第四,对林产品流通效率对林业总产值的影响进行了计量分析,深入研究了林产品流通效率对林业产出的作用。用协整方程、误差修正方程、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等计量方法,对1996—2010年中国林产品流通效率和中国林业总产值的关系进行实证研究后认为,二者具有长期协整关系、短期均衡波动和稳定的冲击响应,林产品流通效率提升是林业总产值增加的一个重要因素。
第五,从微观视角对中国林业上市公司的林产品流通效率进行了实证研究。选取C2R模型、BCC模型和Malmquist指数测度法,分别对2008—2011年中国林产品流通中的重要主体—20家林业上市公司的林产品流通效率进行比较分析后认为,公司之间的林产品流通效率有高低差距,大部分公司DEA相对低效且呈现降低趋势,尤其是以资源类初级林产品为主业的林业上市公司林产品流通效率相对较低。
最后,对提高中国林产品流通效率提出了对策和建议。要从构建完善的林产品流通运行机制、培育强大的森林资源基础、建立良好的流通调控体系、提高供需水平、提升流通现代化水平、强化流通主体实力和提升人才队伍素质等七个方面采取改进措施。
本研究的创新点主要有三个：
(1)将流通效率相关理论应用于林产品流通领域,对中国林产品流通的历史现状和国际差距等问题做了全面系统的研究,深化和拓展了流通效率研究的行业领域,为中国林产品流通效率的提高提供了具体指导,弥补了流通理论研究对于林业产业、尤其是林产品流通领域相关研究不足的缺点。
(2)提出了较为合理的林产品流通效率评价指标体系。从社会及生态环境、林产品流通利益相关者的多维视角,构建了集流通共性与林产品流通行业特性相结合的林产品流通效率评价指标体系,这有别于其他学者对林产品流通效率的评价指标(其他学者的评价指标视角单一、数量较少),为客观评价我国林产品流通效率提供了依据。
(3)将经济学的研究方法引入林产品流通效率研究领域,选取规范、量化和实证的有关方法(比较分析法、因子分析法、协整分析法、误差修正方程、脉冲响应函数、方差分解和DEA分析等)对中国宏观意义上的林产品流通效率及其影响因素、林产品流通效率对林业产业发展的影响、微观视角的林业上市公司林产品流通效率等问题进行了较为系统而深入的研究,其研究体系和框架方法不仅提升和丰富了林产品流通效率研究的手段和方法,而且为其他行业产品流通效率研究提供了示范。
The circulation of forest product is an important part of commodity circulation, which plays an important role in connecting the production and consumption of forest product and coordinating the interests of all parties. As the core part of the modern forestry development system, improving the circulation efficiency of forest product can not only ensure the profits of producers and businessmen, increase the income of the farmers and workers, meet the needs of the consumers, but also guarantee the ecological security, food security, energy security, economic security and maintain the development of national forestry industry and the society. However, many factors result in the low circulation efficiency of China's forest product, which impacts the realization of the above targets. At present, there are few literatures specializing in the circulation efficiency of forest product, which needs to be strengthened. This research mainly covers the following points:
First, this research has combed the circulation efficiency theories of forest product at home and abroad. And it has discussed and analyzed the concerned theories like forestry economic theory,circulation theory,efficiency theory, competitive power theory,stakeholder theory. It has also analyzed the inner mechanism among the circulation efficiency of forest product, the level of forest resources and the sustainable development, which has laid a good theoretical basis for the research on the circulation efficiency of forest product under the background of sustainable development. This research has been delved into the history and current situation of the circulation efficiency of China's forest product, which has respectively made international comparison with Russia, the United States, Japan from the perspectives of forest resources supply, circulation management system and circulation level.
Second, this research has set up an evaluation index system of multidimensional perspective for circulation efficiency. Such system consists of18indexes from three aspects (social and ecological environment, the imposition of forestry system employees and consumers, manufacturers and distributors) which reflects the interests of stakeholders, and gives attention to the balance of the social, economic and ecological benefits.
Third, this research is an empirical study of the circulation efficiency evaluation and its influence factors during1996-2010in China. After a factor analysis of index data on the circulation efficiency of China's forest product in a macro sense, it shows that the long-term trend of the circulation efficiency keeps upward, while it also has sharp fluctuations. The circulation efficiency has been greatly affected by the national industrial policy and social developing environment. From the co-integration analysis, the most direct factor is market transaction conditions of the greatest influences, and then the traffic conditions which play a key role; the influence of the government's financial investment is relatively more indirect, but it plays an important role in the long-term support.
Fourth, this research is a measurement analysis of the effect of the circulation efficiency on the output value of forestry industry, which carries a deep research on the effects of the circulation efficiency of forest product. By using cointegration equation, error correction equation, impulse response function, variance decomposition and other measurement methods, we undertakes an empirical research on the circulation efficiency of China's forest product and the output value of China's forestry industry during1996-2010, from which, it shows that they remain in a long-term co-integration relationship, short-term balanced fluctuation and stable shock response. And the ascension of circulation efficiency is one of the most important factors for increased gross output value of the forestry industry.
Fifth, this research is also an empirical study of the circulation efficiency of China's listed forestry corporations from the micro perspective. By the use of C2R model, BCC model and Malmquist index measuring method, we carry out a comparative analysis of the circulation efficiency of20listed forestry corporations in China during2008-2011respectively. It shows that circulation efficiencies of different corporations are quite different, DEA of most companies are of weak effects or seriously invalid and in a reducing trend. Especially that of listed forestry corporations focusing on primary forest product is quite lower.
Finally, the following seven aspects of countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to improve the circulation efficiency of China's forest product:constructing a perfect operation mechanism of forest product circulation, cultivating a strong forest resources base, establishing a good circulation regulating system, improving the circulation environment condition, strengthening the main body's strength of circulation and promoting talents'quality.
There contain the following three innovation points in this research:
(1) Related theories of the circulation efficiency are applied in the field of forest products circulation. It makes a comprehensive and systematical research on the historical status and international gap of the circulation efficiency of China's forest product, deepens and expands the industry field of the concerned research, provides specific guidances for improving the efficiency and makes up for the the defect of circulation theory research on forestry industry, especially on the circulation field.
(2) A scientific and reasonable evaluation index system is put forward on the circulation efficiency of forest product. From the multidimensional perspectives of social and ecological environments and stakeholders of forest product circulation, the evaluation index system is systematically constructed by combining the circulation commonness and the characteristics of circulation industry, which is different from other scholars'evaluation index (unitary and less evaluation index), providing a basis for scientific and objective evaluation on the circulation efficiency of China's forest product.
(3) Mainstream economics methods are introduced into the research field of circulation efficiency of forest product. By the use of standarization, quantization and other empirical methods (comparative analysis, factor analysis, cointegration analysis, error correction equation, impulse response function, variance decomposition and DEA analysis, etc.), the following aspects are scientifically and systematically analyzed: circulation efficiency of China's forest product in the macro sense and its influential factors, the effects of circulation efficiency on the development of forestry industry, the circulation efficiency of forest product in listed forest corporations from the micro perspective and so on. The research system and framework method not only improve and enrich the research means and methods on the circulation efficiency of forest product, but also set an example for the circulation efficiency study of other industries' products.
首先,梳理了国内外林产品流通效率研究文献理论。对林业经济理论、流通理论、效率理论、竞争力理论、利益相关者理论等与林产品流通效率问题研究有关的理论进行了阐述与分析,对林产品流通效率与森林资源水平以及可持续发展之间的内在机理进行了剖析,为可持续发展背景下的林产品流通效率研究打下了较好的理论基础。对中国林产品流通的历史和现状进行了考察和分析,分别从林产品供给森林资源基础、流通管理体制、流通水平等方面对俄罗斯、美国、日本及中国的林产品流通进行了国际比较。
第二,构建了多维视角的林产品流通效率评价指标体系。该评价指标体系由三个方面(社会和生态环境、林农林业职工和消费者、林产品生产商和经销商)的18个指标构成,体现了林产品流通相关者的利益,并尽量兼顾了林业的社会、经济和生态效益的平衡。
第三,对1996—2010年中国林产品流通效率评价及其影响因素进行了实证分析。用因子分析法对中国宏观意义上的林产品流通效率指标数据进行实证分析后认为,林产品流通效率长期趋势向上,但也有急剧波动之时,林产品流通效率受国家产业政策和社会发展环境的影响较大。对影响林产品流通效率的主要因素进行协整分析后认为,在主要影响因素中,林产品市场交易条件最直接,作用最大；交通条件次之,但起到重要的保障作用；国家对林业的财政投入影响相对较为间接,但起到重要的长期支撑作用。
第四,对林产品流通效率对林业总产值的影响进行了计量分析,深入研究了林产品流通效率对林业产出的作用。用协整方程、误差修正方程、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等计量方法,对1996—2010年中国林产品流通效率和中国林业总产值的关系进行实证研究后认为,二者具有长期协整关系、短期均衡波动和稳定的冲击响应,林产品流通效率提升是林业总产值增加的一个重要因素。
第五,从微观视角对中国林业上市公司的林产品流通效率进行了实证研究。选取C2R模型、BCC模型和Malmquist指数测度法,分别对2008—2011年中国林产品流通中的重要主体—20家林业上市公司的林产品流通效率进行比较分析后认为,公司之间的林产品流通效率有高低差距,大部分公司DEA相对低效且呈现降低趋势,尤其是以资源类初级林产品为主业的林业上市公司林产品流通效率相对较低。
最后,对提高中国林产品流通效率提出了对策和建议。要从构建完善的林产品流通运行机制、培育强大的森林资源基础、建立良好的流通调控体系、提高供需水平、提升流通现代化水平、强化流通主体实力和提升人才队伍素质等七个方面采取改进措施。
本研究的创新点主要有三个：
(1)将流通效率相关理论应用于林产品流通领域,对中国林产品流通的历史现状和国际差距等问题做了全面系统的研究,深化和拓展了流通效率研究的行业领域,为中国林产品流通效率的提高提供了具体指导,弥补了流通理论研究对于林业产业、尤其是林产品流通领域相关研究不足的缺点。
(2)提出了较为合理的林产品流通效率评价指标体系。从社会及生态环境、林产品流通利益相关者的多维视角,构建了集流通共性与林产品流通行业特性相结合的林产品流通效率评价指标体系,这有别于其他学者对林产品流通效率的评价指标(其他学者的评价指标视角单一、数量较少),为客观评价我国林产品流通效率提供了依据。
(3)将经济学的研究方法引入林产品流通效率研究领域,选取规范、量化和实证的有关方法(比较分析法、因子分析法、协整分析法、误差修正方程、脉冲响应函数、方差分解和DEA分析等)对中国宏观意义上的林产品流通效率及其影响因素、林产品流通效率对林业产业发展的影响、微观视角的林业上市公司林产品流通效率等问题进行了较为系统而深入的研究,其研究体系和框架方法不仅提升和丰富了林产品流通效率研究的手段和方法,而且为其他行业产品流通效率研究提供了示范。
The circulation of forest product is an important part of commodity circulation, which plays an important role in connecting the production and consumption of forest product and coordinating the interests of all parties. As the core part of the modern forestry development system, improving the circulation efficiency of forest product can not only ensure the profits of producers and businessmen, increase the income of the farmers and workers, meet the needs of the consumers, but also guarantee the ecological security, food security, energy security, economic security and maintain the development of national forestry industry and the society. However, many factors result in the low circulation efficiency of China's forest product, which impacts the realization of the above targets. At present, there are few literatures specializing in the circulation efficiency of forest product, which needs to be strengthened. This research mainly covers the following points:
First, this research has combed the circulation efficiency theories of forest product at home and abroad. And it has discussed and analyzed the concerned theories like forestry economic theory,circulation theory,efficiency theory, competitive power theory,stakeholder theory. It has also analyzed the inner mechanism among the circulation efficiency of forest product, the level of forest resources and the sustainable development, which has laid a good theoretical basis for the research on the circulation efficiency of forest product under the background of sustainable development. This research has been delved into the history and current situation of the circulation efficiency of China's forest product, which has respectively made international comparison with Russia, the United States, Japan from the perspectives of forest resources supply, circulation management system and circulation level.
Second, this research has set up an evaluation index system of multidimensional perspective for circulation efficiency. Such system consists of18indexes from three aspects (social and ecological environment, the imposition of forestry system employees and consumers, manufacturers and distributors) which reflects the interests of stakeholders, and gives attention to the balance of the social, economic and ecological benefits.
Third, this research is an empirical study of the circulation efficiency evaluation and its influence factors during1996-2010in China. After a factor analysis of index data on the circulation efficiency of China's forest product in a macro sense, it shows that the long-term trend of the circulation efficiency keeps upward, while it also has sharp fluctuations. The circulation efficiency has been greatly affected by the national industrial policy and social developing environment. From the co-integration analysis, the most direct factor is market transaction conditions of the greatest influences, and then the traffic conditions which play a key role; the influence of the government's financial investment is relatively more indirect, but it plays an important role in the long-term support.
Fourth, this research is a measurement analysis of the effect of the circulation efficiency on the output value of forestry industry, which carries a deep research on the effects of the circulation efficiency of forest product. By using cointegration equation, error correction equation, impulse response function, variance decomposition and other measurement methods, we undertakes an empirical research on the circulation efficiency of China's forest product and the output value of China's forestry industry during1996-2010, from which, it shows that they remain in a long-term co-integration relationship, short-term balanced fluctuation and stable shock response. And the ascension of circulation efficiency is one of the most important factors for increased gross output value of the forestry industry.
Fifth, this research is also an empirical study of the circulation efficiency of China's listed forestry corporations from the micro perspective. By the use of C2R model, BCC model and Malmquist index measuring method, we carry out a comparative analysis of the circulation efficiency of20listed forestry corporations in China during2008-2011respectively. It shows that circulation efficiencies of different corporations are quite different, DEA of most companies are of weak effects or seriously invalid and in a reducing trend. Especially that of listed forestry corporations focusing on primary forest product is quite lower.
Finally, the following seven aspects of countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to improve the circulation efficiency of China's forest product:constructing a perfect operation mechanism of forest product circulation, cultivating a strong forest resources base, establishing a good circulation regulating system, improving the circulation environment condition, strengthening the main body's strength of circulation and promoting talents'quality.
There contain the following three innovation points in this research:
(1) Related theories of the circulation efficiency are applied in the field of forest products circulation. It makes a comprehensive and systematical research on the historical status and international gap of the circulation efficiency of China's forest product, deepens and expands the industry field of the concerned research, provides specific guidances for improving the efficiency and makes up for the the defect of circulation theory research on forestry industry, especially on the circulation field.
(2) A scientific and reasonable evaluation index system is put forward on the circulation efficiency of forest product. From the multidimensional perspectives of social and ecological environments and stakeholders of forest product circulation, the evaluation index system is systematically constructed by combining the circulation commonness and the characteristics of circulation industry, which is different from other scholars'evaluation index (unitary and less evaluation index), providing a basis for scientific and objective evaluation on the circulation efficiency of China's forest product.
(3) Mainstream economics methods are introduced into the research field of circulation efficiency of forest product. By the use of standarization, quantization and other empirical methods (comparative analysis, factor analysis, cointegration analysis, error correction equation, impulse response function, variance decomposition and DEA analysis, etc.), the following aspects are scientifically and systematically analyzed: circulation efficiency of China's forest product in the macro sense and its influential factors, the effects of circulation efficiency on the development of forestry industry, the circulation efficiency of forest product in listed forest corporations from the micro perspective and so on. The research system and framework method not only improve and enrich the research means and methods on the circulation efficiency of forest product, but also set an example for the circulation efficiency study of other industries' products.
引文
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