陕西苹果出口贸易依存度研究
摘要
陕西作为西部的一个农业大省,有着苹果生长所需要的得天独厚的自然气候和生态环境,其中黄土高原区是全国唯一符合苹果生长七项气候指标要求的优生区。特别从2000年省委、省政府出台《关于加快以苹果为主的果业产业化建设的决定》以后,陕西苹果得到了前所未有的发展,当今栽培面积和产量均居全国第一,其中产量占全国的1／3,全球的11%；浓缩苹果汁贸易量更是占到世界市场份额的1／3以上。陕西苹果已成为全省国民经济发展的支柱产业,在全国乃至世界苹果产业格局中占据了重要的地位,陕西苹果的出口贸易也在陕西省出口贸易中占有一席之地,其中,苹果汁出口更是全省出口贸易的一大亮点。
对外贸易依存度是指一国一定时期商品出口额与进口额之和占国内生产总值的比重。它反映的是一国经济与整个世界经济发生联系的程度,并在一定程度上反映了一国对外贸易在其国民经济中的重要性。本文中,陕西省苹果的出口外贸依存度则是指陕西省苹果的生产依赖苹果国际贸易取得产消平衡的程度,即陕西苹果的出口量(额)与苹果产量(额)之比。随着经济全球化的深入发展和我国加入WTO,陕西苹果近年来的出口贸易依存度究竟为多少,该值是否属于正常范围,如何既能在激烈的国际竞争中获得持续发展,又能避免多变的国际市场带来的贸易风险都成为值得我们研究的课题。
本文以对外贸易依存度的相关基础理论为基础,同时考虑陕西苹果出口贸易目前所处的背景,在对陕西苹果出口贸易依存度的概念做了界定之后对其进行具体的测算,通过相应分析发现陕西苹果出口外贸依存度虽稳步增长但偏低的事实,并通过理论和实证两部分对引起该现象的原因进行分析,随后分析了这种现状将会产生的影响,最后结合实际情况找出了相应的措施。
首先,本文从外贸依存度的概念、影响因素及其他基本相关理论入手,引出陕西苹果出口外贸依存度的概念界定及计算方法,即陕西苹果出口外贸依存度等于陕西苹果的出口量与苹果产量之比。
其次,根据已界定的定义与公式对近年来的陕西苹果出口外贸依存度进行测算,得出的结论是：结合陕西苹果出口外贸依存度有可能引发的外贸风险以及陕西控制这种风险能力的大小来看,陕西苹果出口外贸依存度虽然稳步提升但是偏低。
再次,根据陕西苹果出口外贸依存度的现状及趋势分析分别从理论及实证两个方面找出原因(分别从陕西苹果出口贸易依存度连年提升的总体趋势及出口贸易依存度偏低两方面入手进行分析)。
最后,根据研究结果提出适当提高陕西苹果出口外贸依存度的措施和后续研究的建议(分别从生产、营销体系、外部支持体系和扩大内需四方面入手进行分析)。
本文的创新的选择了“苹果”这一陕西极具特色的出口贸易产业,在测算出陕西苹果出口外贸依存度之后,采用理论分析和实证研究相结合的方法,找出造成目前现状的原因及相应的对策。
Shaanxi,as one of the big agriculture province in weatern district,has the most reasonable natural climate and ecological atomosphere. Loess plateau is the only exellent area to meet the seven apples growing climate condition in China. Specially,since the official document "The decision on improving the mordern constructions of fruit industries led by apples" has released by provincial Party committee and provincial government, Shaanxi apples have got the unprecedented development and the apples planting area.,Both its planting area and output are in the first place, as well, its output has 1/3 of China's and has 11% of the world's. Additional, the trade volume of concentrated apples juice is more than the world's 1/3.Shaanxi apples has become the most important industy in the economic development of Shaanxi province.It also takes the important role in the world market. The exporting of Shaanxi apples takes a certain place in the exporting of Shaanxi province.Besides, the exporting of apple juice is one of the trade highlights
Ratio of dependence on foreign trade is the ratio of commodity export and imporvalue to gross domestic product of one country in a certain period.It reflects the connection between the economy of one country and that of the whole world.And it reflects the importance of the foreign trade of one country in its national economy to a certain extent.Then, the ratio of dependence of Shaanxi apples'exporting trade refers to a balanced level of consumption and manufacturing of Shaanxi apples,that is the ratio of Shanxi apples'exporting volume and output volume.As the development of global economic and entering to WTO of our country, how much is the ratio of dependence of Shaanxi apples'exporting trade? The number is reasonable or not? How can Shaanxi apples develop continuously in the international fierce competition and invoid the trading crisis led by multivariate internatinal market.These all are the problems wo should study.
The thesis takes related concepts of the the ratio of dependence as basic and considers certain background of Shaanxi apples.After defining the the ratio of dependence of Shaanxi apples' exporting trade and caculating it, we found the the ratio of dependence of Shaanxi apples' exporting trade incresed unfalteringly but lower. Then we analysis the reasons from theory and demonstration part and some related affects and methods.
Firstly, the thesis begins with some related concepts of the the ratio of dependence and related factors of Shaanxi apples to get the the ratio of dependence of Shaanxi apples'exporting trade and caculating method which is the ratio of Shanxi apples'exporting volume and output volume.
Secondly, the thesis caculated the ratio of dependence of Shaanxi apples'exporting trade according to the reated concepts and formula and got the result:the ratio of dependence of Shaanxi apples'exporting trade is lower compared with the ability of Shaanxi province dealing with the crisis and the probable trading crisis led by the ratio of dependence of Shaanxi apples'exporting trade.
Thirdly, it finds the reason separately base on the theory and demonstration according to the situation and the tendency. (It analyzed from the rise of the ratio of dependence of Shaanxi apples' exporting trade year on year and the number is lower).
At the end, it put forward the measures of the ratio of dependence of Shaanxi apples' exporting trade and several suggestions for future studies (which analyzed from production, marketing system, external support system) on the basis of research results.
The innovation of this article is that it chooses apple exporting trade industry, which is the characteristic industry in Shaanxi. It combines theoretical analysis with authentic proof analysis to find the reason that form the current situation and put forward countermeasures after testing the ratio of dependence of Shaanxi apples' exporting trade.
对外贸易依存度是指一国一定时期商品出口额与进口额之和占国内生产总值的比重。它反映的是一国经济与整个世界经济发生联系的程度,并在一定程度上反映了一国对外贸易在其国民经济中的重要性。本文中,陕西省苹果的出口外贸依存度则是指陕西省苹果的生产依赖苹果国际贸易取得产消平衡的程度,即陕西苹果的出口量(额)与苹果产量(额)之比。随着经济全球化的深入发展和我国加入WTO,陕西苹果近年来的出口贸易依存度究竟为多少,该值是否属于正常范围,如何既能在激烈的国际竞争中获得持续发展,又能避免多变的国际市场带来的贸易风险都成为值得我们研究的课题。
本文以对外贸易依存度的相关基础理论为基础,同时考虑陕西苹果出口贸易目前所处的背景,在对陕西苹果出口贸易依存度的概念做了界定之后对其进行具体的测算,通过相应分析发现陕西苹果出口外贸依存度虽稳步增长但偏低的事实,并通过理论和实证两部分对引起该现象的原因进行分析,随后分析了这种现状将会产生的影响,最后结合实际情况找出了相应的措施。
首先,本文从外贸依存度的概念、影响因素及其他基本相关理论入手,引出陕西苹果出口外贸依存度的概念界定及计算方法,即陕西苹果出口外贸依存度等于陕西苹果的出口量与苹果产量之比。
其次,根据已界定的定义与公式对近年来的陕西苹果出口外贸依存度进行测算,得出的结论是：结合陕西苹果出口外贸依存度有可能引发的外贸风险以及陕西控制这种风险能力的大小来看,陕西苹果出口外贸依存度虽然稳步提升但是偏低。
再次,根据陕西苹果出口外贸依存度的现状及趋势分析分别从理论及实证两个方面找出原因(分别从陕西苹果出口贸易依存度连年提升的总体趋势及出口贸易依存度偏低两方面入手进行分析)。
最后,根据研究结果提出适当提高陕西苹果出口外贸依存度的措施和后续研究的建议(分别从生产、营销体系、外部支持体系和扩大内需四方面入手进行分析)。
本文的创新的选择了“苹果”这一陕西极具特色的出口贸易产业,在测算出陕西苹果出口外贸依存度之后,采用理论分析和实证研究相结合的方法,找出造成目前现状的原因及相应的对策。
Shaanxi,as one of the big agriculture province in weatern district,has the most reasonable natural climate and ecological atomosphere. Loess plateau is the only exellent area to meet the seven apples growing climate condition in China. Specially,since the official document "The decision on improving the mordern constructions of fruit industries led by apples" has released by provincial Party committee and provincial government, Shaanxi apples have got the unprecedented development and the apples planting area.,Both its planting area and output are in the first place, as well, its output has 1/3 of China's and has 11% of the world's. Additional, the trade volume of concentrated apples juice is more than the world's 1/3.Shaanxi apples has become the most important industy in the economic development of Shaanxi province.It also takes the important role in the world market. The exporting of Shaanxi apples takes a certain place in the exporting of Shaanxi province.Besides, the exporting of apple juice is one of the trade highlights
Ratio of dependence on foreign trade is the ratio of commodity export and imporvalue to gross domestic product of one country in a certain period.It reflects the connection between the economy of one country and that of the whole world.And it reflects the importance of the foreign trade of one country in its national economy to a certain extent.Then, the ratio of dependence of Shaanxi apples'exporting trade refers to a balanced level of consumption and manufacturing of Shaanxi apples,that is the ratio of Shanxi apples'exporting volume and output volume.As the development of global economic and entering to WTO of our country, how much is the ratio of dependence of Shaanxi apples'exporting trade? The number is reasonable or not? How can Shaanxi apples develop continuously in the international fierce competition and invoid the trading crisis led by multivariate internatinal market.These all are the problems wo should study.
The thesis takes related concepts of the the ratio of dependence as basic and considers certain background of Shaanxi apples.After defining the the ratio of dependence of Shaanxi apples' exporting trade and caculating it, we found the the ratio of dependence of Shaanxi apples' exporting trade incresed unfalteringly but lower. Then we analysis the reasons from theory and demonstration part and some related affects and methods.
Firstly, the thesis begins with some related concepts of the the ratio of dependence and related factors of Shaanxi apples to get the the ratio of dependence of Shaanxi apples'exporting trade and caculating method which is the ratio of Shanxi apples'exporting volume and output volume.
Secondly, the thesis caculated the ratio of dependence of Shaanxi apples'exporting trade according to the reated concepts and formula and got the result:the ratio of dependence of Shaanxi apples'exporting trade is lower compared with the ability of Shaanxi province dealing with the crisis and the probable trading crisis led by the ratio of dependence of Shaanxi apples'exporting trade.
Thirdly, it finds the reason separately base on the theory and demonstration according to the situation and the tendency. (It analyzed from the rise of the ratio of dependence of Shaanxi apples' exporting trade year on year and the number is lower).
At the end, it put forward the measures of the ratio of dependence of Shaanxi apples' exporting trade and several suggestions for future studies (which analyzed from production, marketing system, external support system) on the basis of research results.
The innovation of this article is that it chooses apple exporting trade industry, which is the characteristic industry in Shaanxi. It combines theoretical analysis with authentic proof analysis to find the reason that form the current situation and put forward countermeasures after testing the ratio of dependence of Shaanxi apples' exporting trade.
引文
[1]刘汉成,易法海.中国水果出口特征及国际竞争力分析[J].农业现代化研究,2007,28(4)：450-453.
[2]温耀庆.中国外经贸热点问题研究[M].上海：上海交通大学出版社,2005：67-82.
[3]刘重立.21世纪的中国外贸发展战略[M].中国财政经济出版社,2005：43-52.
[4]郭羽诞.外贸依存度指标存在内在缺陷财贸经济[J].2004(9)：41—45.
[5]Czinkota Michael R. Coping with Increased Trade Interdependence[J]. International Marketing Review,2002(5):87-90.
[6]管婷.我国的外贸依存度研究[D].华东师范大学优秀硕士论文,2007：7-8.
[7]魏浩,宋耀.对外贸易依存度偏高的分析[J].开放导报,2004(5)：66-68.
[8]江小涓,杨圣明,冯雷.中国对外贸易理论前沿[M].社会科学文献版社,2003：75-78.
[9]钱纳里.工业化和经济增长比较研究(中译本)[M].上海：上海三联出版社,1989.
[10]傅钧文.外贸依存度提高带来的风险不容忽视[J].社会观察,2004(10)：53-55.
[11]魏浩,宋耀.构建适度的外贸依存度[J].中国经贸,2004(6)：88-89.
[12]刘光溪,陈泰锋.科学把握入世后外贸依存度的内涵及对策[J].国际商务研究,2004(4)：31-33.
[13]许统生.我国实际贸易依存度的评估和国际比较[J].经济学动态,2003(8)：56-61.
[14]沈利生.论外贸依存度[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2005(7)：63-67.
[15]张旭宏,庞锦.我国外贸依存度分析与政策建议[J].经济研究参考,2005(56)：54-58.
[16]吴先智.对我国外贸依存度的分析[J].市场周刊,2005(8)：12-14.
[17]Waldman, Raymond. Managed Trade:The.Competition Between Nations[M]. Ballinger Press,2000 (29)
[18]马述忠,乜国婉.农产品外贸依存度的国际比较及政府行为分析[J].农业经济问题,2007(3)：96-100.
[19]邹於娟,武拉平,谭霖.中国大豆外贸依存度影响因素分析[J].技术经 济.2009(5)：59-63.
[20]李应中.中国和主要发达国家农产品国际贸易依存度比较[J].世界农业,2003(1)：21-24.
[21]穆养民,赵政阳,戴军.陕西果业发展的战略选择[J].西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版：2004,4(5)：68-70.
[22]石小亚,郭蓓,王芹.陕西苹果业应对“绿色壁垒”.学术理论[J].2006(7)：197-198.
[23]赵贵宝.农业国际化与陕西苹果产业的国际化发展[J].理论导刊,2006(2)；54-56.
[24]童荣萍.打造陕西苹果产业的国际市场竞争力[J].中国市场,2006(41)：16-18.
[25]李洁,李壁成.黄土高原苹果产业的比较优势与国际市场前景分析[J].水土保持研究,2005(12)：165-167.
[26]张雪阳.陕西苹果产业发展现状与发展思路[J].西北大学学报：哲学社会科学版,2005(35)：5-7.
[27]杨海燕,胡俊鹏,王军,齐高强,李丙智.浅析陕西苹果集聚产业科技服务体系的管理与运行[J].中国农学通报,2006.(4)：415-417.
[28]薛荣久.对我国贸易依存度计算的置疑与建议[J].国际商报,2003(4)：22-25.
[29]王晶晶.如何看待中国的外贸依存度[J].当代经济,2005(6)：15-16.
[30]张旭宏,庞锦.我国外贸依存度分析和政策建议[J].经济研究参考,2005(56)：37-39.
[31]陈锡康.中国1995年对外贸易投入占用产出表及其应用[J].2002(190)：76-79.
[32]张雪阳.陕西苹果产业发展现状与发展思路[J].西北大学学报2005,35(1)：36-41.
[33]王振兴.陕西果品国际流通已经渐入佳境[EB／OL][2007-12-17]. http:／／www.china-fruit.com.cn／News／Important／35684.shtml.
[34]黄长科.陕西苹果产业经济与发展[D].西北农林科技大学硕士学位论文,2005：35-38.
[35]刘英杰.中国苹果产业经济研究[D].中国农业大学博士学位论文,2005：32-34.
[36]郭民主.加快陕西苹果品种布局调整结构优化的建议[J].西北园艺,2006(1)：4-5.
[37]余欣.陕西苹果产业竞争力分析[D].西北农林科技大学硕士学位论文,2004(3)：22-23.
[38]刘慧娥,杨立社等.陕西苹果业面临的挑战与应对策略[J].中国农学通道报,2003,19(2)：139-142.
[39]熊秀芳,李星恕.陕西苹果浓缩汁生产的发展对策及新技术[J].农机化研究,2004,5(3)：25-27.
[40]陕西省委党校政经室课题组.陕西果汁加工出口发展面临的主要问题及对策再分析[J].理论导刊,2004(8)：47-51.
[41]刘凤之,孙希生.我国苹果出口问题及主要对策[J].中国果树,2007(1)：42-44.
[42]过国南.西北地区苹果业可持续发展的对策[J].农业科技通讯,2000(12)：14-15.
[43]刘福权.我国与世界苹果生产现状分析及对策思路[J].经济林研究,2008(4)：56-73.
[44]赵政阳,张军科,牛立新.陕西农业产业发展现状与科技发展对策[J].园艺学进展,2003(6)：35-41.
[2]温耀庆.中国外经贸热点问题研究[M].上海：上海交通大学出版社,2005：67-82.
[3]刘重立.21世纪的中国外贸发展战略[M].中国财政经济出版社,2005：43-52.
[4]郭羽诞.外贸依存度指标存在内在缺陷财贸经济[J].2004(9)：41—45.
[5]Czinkota Michael R. Coping with Increased Trade Interdependence[J]. International Marketing Review,2002(5):87-90.
[6]管婷.我国的外贸依存度研究[D].华东师范大学优秀硕士论文,2007：7-8.
[7]魏浩,宋耀.对外贸易依存度偏高的分析[J].开放导报,2004(5)：66-68.
[8]江小涓,杨圣明,冯雷.中国对外贸易理论前沿[M].社会科学文献版社,2003：75-78.
[9]钱纳里.工业化和经济增长比较研究(中译本)[M].上海：上海三联出版社,1989.
[10]傅钧文.外贸依存度提高带来的风险不容忽视[J].社会观察,2004(10)：53-55.
[11]魏浩,宋耀.构建适度的外贸依存度[J].中国经贸,2004(6)：88-89.
[12]刘光溪,陈泰锋.科学把握入世后外贸依存度的内涵及对策[J].国际商务研究,2004(4)：31-33.
[13]许统生.我国实际贸易依存度的评估和国际比较[J].经济学动态,2003(8)：56-61.
[14]沈利生.论外贸依存度[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2005(7)：63-67.
[15]张旭宏,庞锦.我国外贸依存度分析与政策建议[J].经济研究参考,2005(56)：54-58.
[16]吴先智.对我国外贸依存度的分析[J].市场周刊,2005(8)：12-14.
[17]Waldman, Raymond. Managed Trade:The.Competition Between Nations[M]. Ballinger Press,2000 (29)
[18]马述忠,乜国婉.农产品外贸依存度的国际比较及政府行为分析[J].农业经济问题,2007(3)：96-100.
[19]邹於娟,武拉平,谭霖.中国大豆外贸依存度影响因素分析[J].技术经 济.2009(5)：59-63.
[20]李应中.中国和主要发达国家农产品国际贸易依存度比较[J].世界农业,2003(1)：21-24.
[21]穆养民,赵政阳,戴军.陕西果业发展的战略选择[J].西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版：2004,4(5)：68-70.
[22]石小亚,郭蓓,王芹.陕西苹果业应对“绿色壁垒”.学术理论[J].2006(7)：197-198.
[23]赵贵宝.农业国际化与陕西苹果产业的国际化发展[J].理论导刊,2006(2)；54-56.
[24]童荣萍.打造陕西苹果产业的国际市场竞争力[J].中国市场,2006(41)：16-18.
[25]李洁,李壁成.黄土高原苹果产业的比较优势与国际市场前景分析[J].水土保持研究,2005(12)：165-167.
[26]张雪阳.陕西苹果产业发展现状与发展思路[J].西北大学学报：哲学社会科学版,2005(35)：5-7.
[27]杨海燕,胡俊鹏,王军,齐高强,李丙智.浅析陕西苹果集聚产业科技服务体系的管理与运行[J].中国农学通报,2006.(4)：415-417.
[28]薛荣久.对我国贸易依存度计算的置疑与建议[J].国际商报,2003(4)：22-25.
[29]王晶晶.如何看待中国的外贸依存度[J].当代经济,2005(6)：15-16.
[30]张旭宏,庞锦.我国外贸依存度分析和政策建议[J].经济研究参考,2005(56)：37-39.
[31]陈锡康.中国1995年对外贸易投入占用产出表及其应用[J].2002(190)：76-79.
[32]张雪阳.陕西苹果产业发展现状与发展思路[J].西北大学学报2005,35(1)：36-41.
[33]王振兴.陕西果品国际流通已经渐入佳境[EB／OL][2007-12-17]. http:／／www.china-fruit.com.cn／News／Important／35684.shtml.
[34]黄长科.陕西苹果产业经济与发展[D].西北农林科技大学硕士学位论文,2005：35-38.
[35]刘英杰.中国苹果产业经济研究[D].中国农业大学博士学位论文,2005：32-34.
[36]郭民主.加快陕西苹果品种布局调整结构优化的建议[J].西北园艺,2006(1)：4-5.
[37]余欣.陕西苹果产业竞争力分析[D].西北农林科技大学硕士学位论文,2004(3)：22-23.
[38]刘慧娥,杨立社等.陕西苹果业面临的挑战与应对策略[J].中国农学通道报,2003,19(2)：139-142.
[39]熊秀芳,李星恕.陕西苹果浓缩汁生产的发展对策及新技术[J].农机化研究,2004,5(3)：25-27.
[40]陕西省委党校政经室课题组.陕西果汁加工出口发展面临的主要问题及对策再分析[J].理论导刊,2004(8)：47-51.
[41]刘凤之,孙希生.我国苹果出口问题及主要对策[J].中国果树,2007(1)：42-44.
[42]过国南.西北地区苹果业可持续发展的对策[J].农业科技通讯,2000(12)：14-15.
[43]刘福权.我国与世界苹果生产现状分析及对策思路[J].经济林研究,2008(4)：56-73.
[44]赵政阳,张军科,牛立新.陕西农业产业发展现状与科技发展对策[J].园艺学进展,2003(6)：35-41.