宏观调控对房地产公司资本结构调整和投资的影响研究
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摘要
自2003年以来,中国房地产行业经历了高速发展。在此期间,政府针对房地产行业的调控的方向和调控的力度都有剧烈的变化,房地产市场也经历了剧烈的跌宕起伏,大量的矛盾给整个房地产行业的发展带来了很多不确定性。鉴于世界经济发展史和经济危机史,历史上多数经济危机的爆发都与房地产泡沫的产生和破裂有着莫大的关联。因此,房地产企业良好的资本结构和融投资行为不仅是个别房地产企业自身发展的战略问题,还是关系到一国经济的健康发展、防范金融风险的关键,甚至是关系到世界经济稳定发展的必要条件。本文以2003--2011年间A股市场的113家上市房地产公司的财务数据和相关经济数据,度量了2006—2011年期间中国35个大中城市房价泡沫,研究了从国家将房地产行业确定为支柱产业以来,相关宏观调控政策对房地产上市公司资本结构的调整和房地产上市公司的投资行为,以理解目前房地产公司目前的资本结构状况和投资行为背后的经济逻辑。
首先,本文运用《中国统计年鉴》的数据并结合文献已有的度量结果对国内35个大中城市2006---2011年间房价泡沫程度予以精确度量和汇总,度量结果表明这35个大中城市的房价普遍存在严重的泡沫。以2003--2011年我国A股房地产上市公司总体资本结构为研究对象,检验了控股股东控制权集中度、控股股东性质和传统文献中其他影响资本结构的变量对资本结构的影响。研究结果发现控股股东控制权集中度对财务杠杆有着显著的影响,适度的股权集中有利于改善公司治理,对降低负债率、控制债务风险和降低财务困境的发生的概率等方面起到了积极的作用；验证了控股股东为政府时有较好的融资环境的理论预期；公司规模、获利能力、成长机会、股利政策以及公司非债务税盾也都显著影响上市房地产公司的资本结构。
其次,实证检验了宏观调控政策对房地产上市公司资本结构调整的影响。研究结果表明2003--2011年各年度宏观调控政策对房地产上市公司的资本结构的影响显著不同。为了应对宏观调控政策和经济环境的剧烈变化,在传统的银行长期债务融资取得难度增大的情况下,房地产上市公司普遍提高了短期借款、贸易信用、资本公积金以增加资金来源,最终的结果提高了公司总体的总负债率。房地产企业资本结构的相关调整弱化了宏观调控政策对其经营战略的影响,但从全行业来看,房地产全行业的债务风险明显提高了。中国银行业根据国家的调控政策调整了对房地产公司的信贷政策,减少了对房.地产企业的信贷总额、降低了银行业本身的风险暴漏,但房地产公司却将债务风险和破产风险转移给了顾客和上下游行业。
最后,本文研究了不同资金来源对房地产上市公司投资的影响,研究结果表明：在严厉的宏观调控政策下,房地产企业仍然普遍对未来房地产市场预期保持乐观,在2003--2011年期间一直不断加大投资力度,导致负债率普遍高企、资金链绷紧、财务困境已经初露端倪,财务风险不容忽视；资本市场的投资者已经趋于谨慎,并不看好投资风格激进的房地产公司,调低了投资风格激进的房地产公司的市场估值；经营风格稳健、资金周转良好、现金充裕的公司,投资表现较为谨慎,普遍加大资金回笼力度,力图保持良好的财务弹性以抓住突如其来的获利机会和应对难以预料的各种危机;不同的控股权的集中度和控股股东的性质以及不同的规模的房地产公司均遵循同样的投资行为,这显示在政府三令五申的调控政策下,目前房地产行业整体对防范风险的意识依然很薄弱,不利于行业长期稳定、健康发展,应当引起管理层的高度重视和警惕,并针对这一情况制定对应的政策,防范房地产市场投资泡沫可能破裂带来的危机。
全文的最后总结了研究结果,从制度改革、立法规范等方面提出了防范房地产行业系统风险的政策建议,并对进一步的研究做了展望。
China's real estate industry has entered a rapid development period from2003. In this period, the macroeconomic control has always been in changing and the real estate market also experienced dramatic fluctuation. The capital structure and investment behavior is not only a strategic problem of individual real estate enterprise, but also related to the healthy development of a country. This paper use financial data of113listed Real Estate Company from2003to2011on A stock market to measure the price bubble and study the Impact of macro-control on the capital structure and investment behavior of enterprises.
Firstly, we accurately measure the price bubble of35domestic large and medium-sized cities in the period of2006---2011. The results show that there is serious prices bubble in these cities. we tested the controlling shareholder and other factors that will affect capital structure and find that the degree of concentration of control has a significant impact on financial leverage. Mild concentration of control can improve the corporate governance and the company will face better financing environment if the Controlling shareholder is the government. The size of Company, profitability, growth opportunities, dividend policy and non debt tax shield Also have significant impacts on the capital structure of listed Real Estate Company.
Secondly, we test the impact of macro-control policies on the real estate listing Corporation's capital structure adjustment. The result shows that the macro-control policies significantly affect the capital structure adjustment of the real estate listing Corporation. In response to the macro-control policy and economic environment, It is more difficult to get long-term debt financing from the bank. Real Estate Companies generally raised short-term loans, trade credit and capital accumulation fund. These adjustments have weakened the effect of regulation and control policy, but the debt risk of real estate industry significantly improved. In order to reduce the risk exposure, the banks have reduced the credit amount to the real estate industry. But the Real Estate Companies transfer the debt risk to the customer and the upstream and downstream industry.
Finally, we study the impact of different sources of funds to the investment of Corporation. The results show that:In the adverse macroeconomic policies and economic environment, the expectations of real estate enterprises still remain optimistic and the real estate enterprises increase investment. But in the result of high debt rate and funds chain taut, the real estate enterprises face financial distress and financial risk. Investors have become more cautious and are not optimistic about the radical Real Estate Company. The companies with sound management style speed the turnover of capital and try to keep the financial flexibility to seize unexpectedly profitable opportunities or avoid the all kinds of crisis. The controlling shareholder and the company size will not influence the investment. Under intensive regulation and control policy, the real estate industry awareness of risk prevention is still very weak. We should pay close attention to this reality.
The last section of this paper summarizes the research results, to prevent the real estate industry system risk policy suggestions were put forward from system reform legislation and the construction of legal system. At the end of the paper the further research is discussed.
首先,本文运用《中国统计年鉴》的数据并结合文献已有的度量结果对国内35个大中城市2006---2011年间房价泡沫程度予以精确度量和汇总,度量结果表明这35个大中城市的房价普遍存在严重的泡沫。以2003--2011年我国A股房地产上市公司总体资本结构为研究对象,检验了控股股东控制权集中度、控股股东性质和传统文献中其他影响资本结构的变量对资本结构的影响。研究结果发现控股股东控制权集中度对财务杠杆有着显著的影响,适度的股权集中有利于改善公司治理,对降低负债率、控制债务风险和降低财务困境的发生的概率等方面起到了积极的作用；验证了控股股东为政府时有较好的融资环境的理论预期；公司规模、获利能力、成长机会、股利政策以及公司非债务税盾也都显著影响上市房地产公司的资本结构。
其次,实证检验了宏观调控政策对房地产上市公司资本结构调整的影响。研究结果表明2003--2011年各年度宏观调控政策对房地产上市公司的资本结构的影响显著不同。为了应对宏观调控政策和经济环境的剧烈变化,在传统的银行长期债务融资取得难度增大的情况下,房地产上市公司普遍提高了短期借款、贸易信用、资本公积金以增加资金来源,最终的结果提高了公司总体的总负债率。房地产企业资本结构的相关调整弱化了宏观调控政策对其经营战略的影响,但从全行业来看,房地产全行业的债务风险明显提高了。中国银行业根据国家的调控政策调整了对房地产公司的信贷政策,减少了对房.地产企业的信贷总额、降低了银行业本身的风险暴漏,但房地产公司却将债务风险和破产风险转移给了顾客和上下游行业。
最后,本文研究了不同资金来源对房地产上市公司投资的影响,研究结果表明：在严厉的宏观调控政策下,房地产企业仍然普遍对未来房地产市场预期保持乐观,在2003--2011年期间一直不断加大投资力度,导致负债率普遍高企、资金链绷紧、财务困境已经初露端倪,财务风险不容忽视；资本市场的投资者已经趋于谨慎,并不看好投资风格激进的房地产公司,调低了投资风格激进的房地产公司的市场估值；经营风格稳健、资金周转良好、现金充裕的公司,投资表现较为谨慎,普遍加大资金回笼力度,力图保持良好的财务弹性以抓住突如其来的获利机会和应对难以预料的各种危机;不同的控股权的集中度和控股股东的性质以及不同的规模的房地产公司均遵循同样的投资行为,这显示在政府三令五申的调控政策下,目前房地产行业整体对防范风险的意识依然很薄弱,不利于行业长期稳定、健康发展,应当引起管理层的高度重视和警惕,并针对这一情况制定对应的政策,防范房地产市场投资泡沫可能破裂带来的危机。
全文的最后总结了研究结果,从制度改革、立法规范等方面提出了防范房地产行业系统风险的政策建议,并对进一步的研究做了展望。
China's real estate industry has entered a rapid development period from2003. In this period, the macroeconomic control has always been in changing and the real estate market also experienced dramatic fluctuation. The capital structure and investment behavior is not only a strategic problem of individual real estate enterprise, but also related to the healthy development of a country. This paper use financial data of113listed Real Estate Company from2003to2011on A stock market to measure the price bubble and study the Impact of macro-control on the capital structure and investment behavior of enterprises.
Firstly, we accurately measure the price bubble of35domestic large and medium-sized cities in the period of2006---2011. The results show that there is serious prices bubble in these cities. we tested the controlling shareholder and other factors that will affect capital structure and find that the degree of concentration of control has a significant impact on financial leverage. Mild concentration of control can improve the corporate governance and the company will face better financing environment if the Controlling shareholder is the government. The size of Company, profitability, growth opportunities, dividend policy and non debt tax shield Also have significant impacts on the capital structure of listed Real Estate Company.
Secondly, we test the impact of macro-control policies on the real estate listing Corporation's capital structure adjustment. The result shows that the macro-control policies significantly affect the capital structure adjustment of the real estate listing Corporation. In response to the macro-control policy and economic environment, It is more difficult to get long-term debt financing from the bank. Real Estate Companies generally raised short-term loans, trade credit and capital accumulation fund. These adjustments have weakened the effect of regulation and control policy, but the debt risk of real estate industry significantly improved. In order to reduce the risk exposure, the banks have reduced the credit amount to the real estate industry. But the Real Estate Companies transfer the debt risk to the customer and the upstream and downstream industry.
Finally, we study the impact of different sources of funds to the investment of Corporation. The results show that:In the adverse macroeconomic policies and economic environment, the expectations of real estate enterprises still remain optimistic and the real estate enterprises increase investment. But in the result of high debt rate and funds chain taut, the real estate enterprises face financial distress and financial risk. Investors have become more cautious and are not optimistic about the radical Real Estate Company. The companies with sound management style speed the turnover of capital and try to keep the financial flexibility to seize unexpectedly profitable opportunities or avoid the all kinds of crisis. The controlling shareholder and the company size will not influence the investment. Under intensive regulation and control policy, the real estate industry awareness of risk prevention is still very weak. We should pay close attention to this reality.
The last section of this paper summarizes the research results, to prevent the real estate industry system risk policy suggestions were put forward from system reform legislation and the construction of legal system. At the end of the paper the further research is discussed.
引文
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