船舶全生命周期综合安全评估研究
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摘要
在船舶与海洋结构物结构强度的常规计算方法中，将有关参数都取为定值。而且对于海事事故总是事后总结，并没有重视事前的风险分析。然而现实是重大灾难仍然不时发生，很多参数其实是服从某种概率分布，并且有的参数随着时间的改变而变化。因此，采用一种概率性的、动态的风险分析方法更为合理。
有鉴于此，本论文采用综合安全评估的思路，针对一艘浮式生产储油船(FPSO)实船，在其全生命期内对船体梁完整和破损纵向强度失效模式展开计算，将载荷、极限强度、可靠性分析与综合安全评估结合起来，力图实现事先预报风险，并积累实际工程数据。
以此为目标，本文首先假定了多种可能发生的破损情况，计算了完整与破损状态下的危险静水载荷并给出了分布；然后计算波浪载荷并给出分布；随后利用理想结构单元法软件计算出单纯受腐蚀影响逐年递减的完整极限弯矩以及受腐蚀和结构破损共同影响的破损极限弯矩。利用上述数据，使用了改进一次二阶矩法和JC法进行可靠性分析并求出可靠性指标，继而求得所需要的失效概率。最后以失效概率为评价指标，进行综合安全评估。从得到的结果可以看出，腐蚀引起的极限强度及失效概率的变化并不剧烈，随着使用时间的推移逐步变化；而破损对于极限强度及失效概率影响显著，一旦发生后果严重，需要引起足够的重视。更进一步地，本论文在综合安全评估阶段尝试针对各种失效概率过大的情况，给出了不同的解决方案并对这些方案作了比较，提出了供决策建议。
本论文将可靠性分析与综合安全评估相结合，用于FPSO实船。这给出了将理论方法付诸实践的基本实现过程，得到了有参考价值的数据和结论，对今后同类型船舶展开此种工作提供了经验和支持。同时可以为今后制定风险规范及对其它船型进行评估提供帮助，有助于改善海事界的安全水平。
When analyzing the structural strength of ship and offshore structure, the relevant parameters are given fixed values in the traditional method. And the maritime disasters are always handled by afterward research, neglecting the beforehand risk analysis. In fact, great tragedies still happen now and then, and many parameters obey some kinds of probability distribution. Some of them change with the lapse of time. Therefore, it is more reasonable to use a probabilistic and dynamic risk analysis method.
According to this, this thesis focuses on a FPSO's intact/damaged longitudinal strength disabled model during its lifetime, by using the Formal Safety Assessment(FSA). The load, ultimate strength, reliability analysis and FSA are considered together in order to forecast risks and collect practical data.
Aiming at these purposes, firstly, this thesis suggests several damaged conditions and calculates the still water loads of intact/damaged condition. Secondly, the wave loads are calculated, too. Thirdly, the intact ultimate bending moments which are influenced by corrosion and decline yearly and the damaged ultimate bending moments which are influenced by corrosion and structural damage are calculated by program of ISUM. All these data's distributions are given at the same time. By using the above data, the reliability analysis is carried on with the AFOSM and JC method. After getting the reliability indexes, the probabilities of failure can be obtained. Finally, the probabilities of failure are taken as evaluation indexes to carry through the FSA. It can be seen from the result that the changes of ultimate strength and probability of failure which are only caused by corrosion are not shrewd. But the structural damage has great effect on reliability and will lead to severe sequence if it happens. So it shoul
d be regarded highly. Further more, the thesis gives different blue prints which are against the situations of too high probabilities of failure, and the prints are compared in order to give the suggestion of decision during the phase of FSA.
This thesis combines the FSA with reliability analysis and applies them on the FPSO. It gives out the realization process of practicing the theories and gets valuable data and conclusions which will benefit the future similar work. At the same time, it will be helpful to make risk-based criterion and evaluate other kinds of ship in the future. It makes for improving the safety level of the maritime industry.
有鉴于此，本论文采用综合安全评估的思路，针对一艘浮式生产储油船(FPSO)实船，在其全生命期内对船体梁完整和破损纵向强度失效模式展开计算，将载荷、极限强度、可靠性分析与综合安全评估结合起来，力图实现事先预报风险，并积累实际工程数据。
以此为目标，本文首先假定了多种可能发生的破损情况，计算了完整与破损状态下的危险静水载荷并给出了分布；然后计算波浪载荷并给出分布；随后利用理想结构单元法软件计算出单纯受腐蚀影响逐年递减的完整极限弯矩以及受腐蚀和结构破损共同影响的破损极限弯矩。利用上述数据，使用了改进一次二阶矩法和JC法进行可靠性分析并求出可靠性指标，继而求得所需要的失效概率。最后以失效概率为评价指标，进行综合安全评估。从得到的结果可以看出，腐蚀引起的极限强度及失效概率的变化并不剧烈，随着使用时间的推移逐步变化；而破损对于极限强度及失效概率影响显著，一旦发生后果严重，需要引起足够的重视。更进一步地，本论文在综合安全评估阶段尝试针对各种失效概率过大的情况，给出了不同的解决方案并对这些方案作了比较，提出了供决策建议。
本论文将可靠性分析与综合安全评估相结合，用于FPSO实船。这给出了将理论方法付诸实践的基本实现过程，得到了有参考价值的数据和结论，对今后同类型船舶展开此种工作提供了经验和支持。同时可以为今后制定风险规范及对其它船型进行评估提供帮助，有助于改善海事界的安全水平。
When analyzing the structural strength of ship and offshore structure, the relevant parameters are given fixed values in the traditional method. And the maritime disasters are always handled by afterward research, neglecting the beforehand risk analysis. In fact, great tragedies still happen now and then, and many parameters obey some kinds of probability distribution. Some of them change with the lapse of time. Therefore, it is more reasonable to use a probabilistic and dynamic risk analysis method.
According to this, this thesis focuses on a FPSO's intact/damaged longitudinal strength disabled model during its lifetime, by using the Formal Safety Assessment(FSA). The load, ultimate strength, reliability analysis and FSA are considered together in order to forecast risks and collect practical data.
Aiming at these purposes, firstly, this thesis suggests several damaged conditions and calculates the still water loads of intact/damaged condition. Secondly, the wave loads are calculated, too. Thirdly, the intact ultimate bending moments which are influenced by corrosion and decline yearly and the damaged ultimate bending moments which are influenced by corrosion and structural damage are calculated by program of ISUM. All these data's distributions are given at the same time. By using the above data, the reliability analysis is carried on with the AFOSM and JC method. After getting the reliability indexes, the probabilities of failure can be obtained. Finally, the probabilities of failure are taken as evaluation indexes to carry through the FSA. It can be seen from the result that the changes of ultimate strength and probability of failure which are only caused by corrosion are not shrewd. But the structural damage has great effect on reliability and will lead to severe sequence if it happens. So it shoul
d be regarded highly. Further more, the thesis gives different blue prints which are against the situations of too high probabilities of failure, and the prints are compared in order to give the suggestion of decision during the phase of FSA.
This thesis combines the FSA with reliability analysis and applies them on the FPSO. It gives out the realization process of practicing the theories and gets valuable data and conclusions which will benefit the future similar work. At the same time, it will be helpful to make risk-based criterion and evaluate other kinds of ship in the future. It makes for improving the safety level of the maritime industry.
引文
[1] 孙树民．海洋平台结构的发展[J]．广东造船，2000，4：32-37．
[2] 钱多一．FPSO开发与并行工程[J]．船舶，2001，5：6-9．
[3] 陈立，钱茹．FPSO对开发边际油田的商业价值[J]．中国海洋平台，1999，14(5)：6-9．
[4] 彭熙民．加大海洋钻采平台及特种船舶的研究力度迎接海洋新时代的挑战[J]．中国海洋平台，2000，15(3)：7-9．
[5] 陈小弟．我国浮式生产储油船(FPSO)的开发现状[J]．船舶，2003，1：62-63．
[6] IWAO WANTANBE. Analysis of the accident of the MV, Nakodka. Part 1. Estimation of wave loads[J]. J Mar Sci Technol, 1998, 3: 171-180.
[7] TETSUYA YAO. Analysis of the accident of the MV, Nakodka. Part 2. Estimation of structural strength[J]. J Mar Sci Technol, 1998, 3: 181-193.
[8] 王勇．巴西石油公司调查FPSO倾斜事件[J]．国外油田工程，2003，19(5)：64-64．
[9] 赵耕贤．FPSO结构设计特点[J]．船舶，2002，1：38-41．
[10] 景宝金．浅析FPSO设计的技术难点与管理工作对策[J]．船舶，2002，3：21-23．
[11] 李玉刚，林焰，纪卓尚．海洋平台安全评估的发展历史和现状[J]．中国海洋平台，2003，18(1)：4-8．
[12] 古文贤，钱耀鹏．船舶运输安全学[Z]．大连：大连海运学院出版社，1992．
[13] 黄燕品．海上交通安全标准的新方——FSA规范安全评估法[J]．世界海运，1997，1：28-32．
[14] 向阳，朱永峨．制定安全规则中应用综合安全评估概念的发展状况[J]．上海造船，1998，1：54-59．
[15] P J Best, W B Davies. The assessment of safety for vessels in service: practical examples of the application of FSA techniques from inland vessels to ocean going ferries[J]. Trans IMarE, 1999, 111(2): 51-56.
[16] G Armstrong, A Rose, A Hold. An analysis of flow-through ballast water exchange[J]. Trans IMarE, 1999, 111(2): 59-70.
[17] DNV: Cost Benefit Analysis of Existing Bulk Carriers-A Case Study on Application of FSA Techniques[Z].
[18] Nobuyoshi, Takeshi SHINODA, Takahiro ONO, Yuka TAMURA. A Stochastic State-transition and Preventing Countermeasures for Marine Accidents Originating from Human Factors[J]．日本西部造船会学报，2000，100：207-217．
[19] 中国：中国船级社综合安全评估应用指南[Z]．1999．
[20] Jae-Ohk Lee, In-Cheo Yeo, Young-Soon Yang. A trial application of FSA methodology to the hatch way water-tight integrity of bulk carriers[J]. Marine Structures, 2001, 14: 651-667.
[21] 张圣坤，白勇，唐文勇．船舶与海洋工程风险评估[Z]．北京：国防工业出版社，2003．
[22] Rachael P.E. Gordon. The contribution of human factors to accidents in the offshore oil industry[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 1998, 61: 95-108.
[23] 胡一民．因装卸行为不当引发的油污事件及其防范[J]．世界海运，1997，3：48-50．
[24] ISSC. 14th International ship and offshore structure congress- specialist committee Vol.1 RISK ASSESSMENT[Z]. Japan, ISSC, 2000.
[25] J. Wang, P. Foinikis. Formal safety assessment of containerships[J]. Marine Policy, 2001,
25: 143-157.
[26] 朱丽萍，张圣坤．船体极限总纵强度可靠性分析[J]．上海交通大学学报，1997，31(11)：96-101．
[27] 徐向东，崔维成．箱型梁极限承载能力试验与理论研究[J]．船舶力学，2000，4(5)：36-43．
[28] Joem Kee Paik, E. Mansour. A simple formulation for predicting the ultimate strength of ship[J]. Journal of Marine Science and Technology, 1995, 1: 52-62.
[29] 郭昌捷，唐翰岫，周炳焕．受损船体极限强度分析与可靠性评估[J]．中国造船，1998，11(4)：49-56．
[30] 刘建成，顾永宁，王自力，马延德，刘文民．浮式生产储油船船体疲劳计算[J]．海洋工程，2001，2(19)：50-55．
[31] C. Guedes Soares, Y. Garbatov. Reliability of maintained, corrosion protected plates subjected to non-linear corrosion and compressive loads[J]. Marine Structures, 1999, 12: 425-445.
[32] Shengping Qin, Weicheng Cui. Effect of corrosion models on the time-dependent reliability of steel plated dements[J]. Marine Structures, 2003, 16: 15-34.
[33] Paik J K, Kim S K, Lee S, Park YE. A probabilistic corrosion rate estimation model for longitudinal strength members of bulk carriers[J]. J Ship Ocean Technol, 1998, 2(1): 58-70.
[34] Lloyd's Register of Shipping World Casualty Statistics[Z]. 1995.
[35] Lloyd's Register of Shipping World Casualty Statistics[Z]. 1996.
[36] ABS. ABS SAFE HULL system for tankers guide for assessing hull girder residual strength of ship[Z]. America: ABS, 1995.
[37] 任慧龙．非线性波浪载荷与船体极限强度[D]．哈尔滨：哈尔滨工程大学博士论文，1995．
[38] 祁恩荣，崔维成，彭兴宁，徐向东．破损船体非对称弯曲极限强度分析及可靠性评估[J]．中国造船，2000，2(41)：41-48．
[39] 余建星，郭振邦，徐慧，黄衍顺．船舶与海洋结构物可靠性原理[Z]．天津：天津大学出版社，2001．1-2．
[40] 郭昌捷，赵占军．船舶结构现代设计[Z]．大连：大连理工大学，1992．212-213．
[41] 吴世伟．结构可靠度分析[Z]．北京：人民交通出版社，1990．97-122．
[42] 郭昌捷，李建军，张道坤．“九五”国家重点技术引进消化吸收“一条龙”项目子专题技术成果报告—受损船体极限强度分析与可靠性评估[Z]．大连理工大学船舶学院，2002．
[43] 邵文蛟．破舱情况下船体总纵强度分析[J]．中国造船，1997，136(1)：66-72．
[44] 郭昌捷，顾元通．考虑相关影响的舰船纵向弯曲强度可靠性分析[J]．大连理工大学学报，1994，34(1)：54-58．
[45] 唐翰岫，郭昌捷．舰船纵向弯曲强度可靠性分析的动态模型[J]．大连理工大学学报，1997，37(4)：459-462．
[46] 孙海虹，肖桃云，张圣坤．考虑腐蚀影响的船体梁极限承载能力时变可靠性分析[J]．中国造船，2000，41(2)：49-55．
[47] 何福志，万正权，张伟．基于船体结构总纵极限强度的可靠性分析[J]．船舶力学，2002，6(2)：27-45．
[48] 黄文波，张圣坤．静水弯矩和波浪弯矩的随机组合[J]．上海交通大学学报，2002，36(1)：102-106．
[49] Unyime O.Akpan, T.S.Koko, B.Ayyub, T.E.Dunbar. Risk assessment of aging ship hull structures in the presence of corrosion and fatigue[J]. Marine Structures, 2002, 15: 211-231.
[50] 魏东，张圣坤，周继胜．考虑腐蚀与疲劳损伤的船体总纵极限强度与可靠性分析[J]．中国造船，1999，147(4)：43-50．
[51] 李建军．综合安全评估在FPSO营运管理中应用研究[D]．大连：大连理工大学硕士论文，2003．
[2] 钱多一．FPSO开发与并行工程[J]．船舶，2001，5：6-9．
[3] 陈立，钱茹．FPSO对开发边际油田的商业价值[J]．中国海洋平台，1999，14(5)：6-9．
[4] 彭熙民．加大海洋钻采平台及特种船舶的研究力度迎接海洋新时代的挑战[J]．中国海洋平台，2000，15(3)：7-9．
[5] 陈小弟．我国浮式生产储油船(FPSO)的开发现状[J]．船舶，2003，1：62-63．
[6] IWAO WANTANBE. Analysis of the accident of the MV, Nakodka. Part 1. Estimation of wave loads[J]. J Mar Sci Technol, 1998, 3: 171-180.
[7] TETSUYA YAO. Analysis of the accident of the MV, Nakodka. Part 2. Estimation of structural strength[J]. J Mar Sci Technol, 1998, 3: 181-193.
[8] 王勇．巴西石油公司调查FPSO倾斜事件[J]．国外油田工程，2003，19(5)：64-64．
[9] 赵耕贤．FPSO结构设计特点[J]．船舶，2002，1：38-41．
[10] 景宝金．浅析FPSO设计的技术难点与管理工作对策[J]．船舶，2002，3：21-23．
[11] 李玉刚，林焰，纪卓尚．海洋平台安全评估的发展历史和现状[J]．中国海洋平台，2003，18(1)：4-8．
[12] 古文贤，钱耀鹏．船舶运输安全学[Z]．大连：大连海运学院出版社，1992．
[13] 黄燕品．海上交通安全标准的新方——FSA规范安全评估法[J]．世界海运，1997，1：28-32．
[14] 向阳，朱永峨．制定安全规则中应用综合安全评估概念的发展状况[J]．上海造船，1998，1：54-59．
[15] P J Best, W B Davies. The assessment of safety for vessels in service: practical examples of the application of FSA techniques from inland vessels to ocean going ferries[J]. Trans IMarE, 1999, 111(2): 51-56.
[16] G Armstrong, A Rose, A Hold. An analysis of flow-through ballast water exchange[J]. Trans IMarE, 1999, 111(2): 59-70.
[17] DNV: Cost Benefit Analysis of Existing Bulk Carriers-A Case Study on Application of FSA Techniques[Z].
[18] Nobuyoshi, Takeshi SHINODA, Takahiro ONO, Yuka TAMURA. A Stochastic State-transition and Preventing Countermeasures for Marine Accidents Originating from Human Factors[J]．日本西部造船会学报，2000，100：207-217．
[19] 中国：中国船级社综合安全评估应用指南[Z]．1999．
[20] Jae-Ohk Lee, In-Cheo Yeo, Young-Soon Yang. A trial application of FSA methodology to the hatch way water-tight integrity of bulk carriers[J]. Marine Structures, 2001, 14: 651-667.
[21] 张圣坤，白勇，唐文勇．船舶与海洋工程风险评估[Z]．北京：国防工业出版社，2003．
[22] Rachael P.E. Gordon. The contribution of human factors to accidents in the offshore oil industry[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 1998, 61: 95-108.
[23] 胡一民．因装卸行为不当引发的油污事件及其防范[J]．世界海运，1997，3：48-50．
[24] ISSC. 14th International ship and offshore structure congress- specialist committee Vol.1 RISK ASSESSMENT[Z]. Japan, ISSC, 2000.
[25] J. Wang, P. Foinikis. Formal safety assessment of containerships[J]. Marine Policy, 2001,
25: 143-157.
[26] 朱丽萍，张圣坤．船体极限总纵强度可靠性分析[J]．上海交通大学学报，1997，31(11)：96-101．
[27] 徐向东，崔维成．箱型梁极限承载能力试验与理论研究[J]．船舶力学，2000，4(5)：36-43．
[28] Joem Kee Paik, E. Mansour. A simple formulation for predicting the ultimate strength of ship[J]. Journal of Marine Science and Technology, 1995, 1: 52-62.
[29] 郭昌捷，唐翰岫，周炳焕．受损船体极限强度分析与可靠性评估[J]．中国造船，1998，11(4)：49-56．
[30] 刘建成，顾永宁，王自力，马延德，刘文民．浮式生产储油船船体疲劳计算[J]．海洋工程，2001，2(19)：50-55．
[31] C. Guedes Soares, Y. Garbatov. Reliability of maintained, corrosion protected plates subjected to non-linear corrosion and compressive loads[J]. Marine Structures, 1999, 12: 425-445.
[32] Shengping Qin, Weicheng Cui. Effect of corrosion models on the time-dependent reliability of steel plated dements[J]. Marine Structures, 2003, 16: 15-34.
[33] Paik J K, Kim S K, Lee S, Park YE. A probabilistic corrosion rate estimation model for longitudinal strength members of bulk carriers[J]. J Ship Ocean Technol, 1998, 2(1): 58-70.
[34] Lloyd's Register of Shipping World Casualty Statistics[Z]. 1995.
[35] Lloyd's Register of Shipping World Casualty Statistics[Z]. 1996.
[36] ABS. ABS SAFE HULL system for tankers guide for assessing hull girder residual strength of ship[Z]. America: ABS, 1995.
[37] 任慧龙．非线性波浪载荷与船体极限强度[D]．哈尔滨：哈尔滨工程大学博士论文，1995．
[38] 祁恩荣，崔维成，彭兴宁，徐向东．破损船体非对称弯曲极限强度分析及可靠性评估[J]．中国造船，2000，2(41)：41-48．
[39] 余建星，郭振邦，徐慧，黄衍顺．船舶与海洋结构物可靠性原理[Z]．天津：天津大学出版社，2001．1-2．
[40] 郭昌捷，赵占军．船舶结构现代设计[Z]．大连：大连理工大学，1992．212-213．
[41] 吴世伟．结构可靠度分析[Z]．北京：人民交通出版社，1990．97-122．
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