中国工业制成品产业内贸易研究
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摘要
二战后,国际贸易实践发生了许多突出的变化。其中最重要的变化是在发达国家间出现了一种新的贸易模式,一国既出口工业制成品,又进口相似的工业制成品。20世纪60年代以后,这种贸易模式率先在发达国家得到了迅猛的发展,后来又在一些新兴工业化国家和发展中国家得到了迅速的发展。按照传统的国际贸易理论,贸易应主要发生在劳动生产率、要素禀赋存在较大差异的发达国家与发展中国家之间。传统的国际贸易理论无法就一国同时出口和进口同类产品的现象做出合理的解释。当现实发生变化时,理论也会随之变化。学者们将一国同时出口和进口同类产品的贸易方式称为产业内贸易,并试图运用规模经济与市场不完全竞争等来解释这种贸易模式,产业内贸易理论由此产生,并成为近40年来国际贸易研究的前沿课题之一。
改革开放30余年来,中国经济以前所未有的速度融入国际分工体系,对外贸易一直保持着高速发展态势,在世界贸易中的地位不断提升。在中国对外贸易高速发展的过程中,制造业发展尤为突出,在出口产品中的比重逐年上升,成为国民经济的支柱产业与主导。
战后经济全球化使国家间的经济联系日益紧密,每个国家都成为整个国际分工体系中不可或缺的链条。世界范围内产业内贸易的发展以及由此引发的国际市场产业竞争的加剧,势必对中国参与国际分工的方式产生不可忽略的影响。产业内贸易的发展对于优化产品出口结构,加快工业化进程,改善国际分工地位,乃至减弱开放经济对国内劳动力市场的冲击都具有重要的作用。中国要实现从贸易大国向贸易强国的转变,扩大参与国际分工的深度,就要顺应全球贸易的发展方向,充分利用两种资源两个市场,大力发展产业内贸易,尤其是工业制成品的产业内贸易,以转变经济增长方式,提高发展质量,实现科学发展。
本文将中国工业制成品产业内贸易置入世界经济一体化以及中国改革开放30年来对外贸易高速发展的背景中,依据相关产业内贸易理论,借鉴国内外已有的研究成果,在科学界定产业分类、产业内贸易概念的基础上,采用静态分析与动态分析相结合、指标分析与计量分析相结合的方法,以中国工业制成品贸易发展为切入点,利用1992-2009年的面板数据,对于中国工业制成品产业内贸易水平、边际产业内贸易水平、中国与主要贸易伙伴国工业制成品的产业贸易水平进行全面测度,从产业与国别两个角度分别考查中国工业制成产业内贸易的发展水平,同时结合贸易竞争力指数来分析中国工业制成品产业内贸易的发展状况；利用GHM法与Giuseppe Celi细分法对中国制成品77个产业的贸易类型进行研究判断,从产业角度进一步考查中国工业制成品产业内贸易发展现状,以发现中国工业制成品产业内贸易发展的特征与内在规律；建立回归模型,对中国工业制成品产业内贸易与经济增长的关系进行协整分析与因果检验；选取人均GDP水平、贸易不平衡程度、规模经济状况和外商直接投资等4个产业内贸易的影响因素,分别进行回归分析与因果关系检验；最后,在上述分析研究结论的基础上从政府与产业两个层面提出中国乃至发展中国家发展制成品产业内贸易的建议。
本文力图通过研究,选择适合中国产业内贸易发展的理论并用于指导中国工业制成品产业内贸易发展的实践,同时完善国内关于工业制成品产业内贸易类型的研究,丰富国内关于产业内贸易研究的经验。
Since Word War Ⅱ, there are many changes in the international trade activities, the most important change is a new international trade model appeared during the developed country:a country will export and import within the same industry products. The sixties in20th century, this kind of trade is rapidly developed between the developed countries, then developed in new industrialized country and developing country. According to the traditional trade theory that trade will be caused during the much difference of producing factor and labor producing ratio, such as developed country and developing country. So the traditional theory didn't explain such economic phenomenon that a country will export and import within the same industry products. Theory will be followed the change of economic phenomenon and trade practice. Economists call it as intra-industry trade that a country will export and import the same industry products, attempting to explain by theory of magnitudes economic and non-complete competition, so intra-industry trade theory appeared significantly and became one of the front research of international trade in40's.
Since the reform and opening about40years, china economic enter into international division system work in the speed that never meet, so the international trade is keeping development in high speed and promoting the situation in the world trade.
During developing of china international trade and transferring of exporting strategic, manufacturing industry developed obviously and the proportion of exporting promoted annual continually., and became main industry in the national economic.
After World War Ⅱ, economy globalization make economic contact each tightly among country, each country will be one part of the whole international division system in the world. The development of intra-industry trade in the world in cause of competition of intra-industry will influence china to take part in international division system work which can not be ignored. The development of intra-industrial trade plays a very important role in promoting exporting structure and industrialization process to change the position of international distribution, even weaken affection to domestic labor market by opening ecomomy.China want to accomplish from power trade country to powerful trade country, enlarge attending degree of international division work, should attempt to develop trend of globe trade, to use two market of two resource, developing intra-industry trade especially manufacturing industry intra-industry trade, transferring developing model and promoting product quality to realize development in science.
Base on china manufacturing intra-industry in world globalization and background of30years development of international trade with china reforming and opening up, according to relevant trade theory of intra-industry trade and relevant research study no matter in domestic or oversea, base on the concept of intra-industry trade is classified by science field, by the method of static analysis and dynamic analysis, index analysis and quantity analysis combination, the paper discover the characteristic and immanent disciplinarian of china manufacturing intra-industry trade development through the following:
Firstly survey the level of manufacturing intra-industry to control the actual situation of china intra-industry trade using the trade data form1992to2009:the level of bound's intra-industry trade and manufacturing intra-industry trade of china with main trade partner country, the developing condition of manufacturing intra-industry trade will be analysised y inspecting developing level of manufacturing intra-industry trade in china from industry and nationality combining with the index of trade competitivity.
Secondly discover the characteristic and disciplinarian of intra-industry trade by researching and judging for trade model of77industries by method of GHM and Giuseppe Celi.
Next,establish regress model, to analysis and result checking the relationship between china manufacturing intra-industrial trade and economy rising; meanwhile select average per person GDP, foreigner direct investment magnitude's economy's status, unbalance trade extent change of4affecting factor.
Finally the paper makes some suggestions for the development of intra-industry trade of manufacturing industry in china and other developing country.
Base on research, this paper attempt to select suitable theory of intra-industry trade for china manufacturing industry and guide intra-industry trade of china manufacturing practice, meanwhile perfect the research of manufacturing intra-industry trade model and enrich the experience of intra-industry trade research in china.
改革开放30余年来,中国经济以前所未有的速度融入国际分工体系,对外贸易一直保持着高速发展态势,在世界贸易中的地位不断提升。在中国对外贸易高速发展的过程中,制造业发展尤为突出,在出口产品中的比重逐年上升,成为国民经济的支柱产业与主导。
战后经济全球化使国家间的经济联系日益紧密,每个国家都成为整个国际分工体系中不可或缺的链条。世界范围内产业内贸易的发展以及由此引发的国际市场产业竞争的加剧,势必对中国参与国际分工的方式产生不可忽略的影响。产业内贸易的发展对于优化产品出口结构,加快工业化进程,改善国际分工地位,乃至减弱开放经济对国内劳动力市场的冲击都具有重要的作用。中国要实现从贸易大国向贸易强国的转变,扩大参与国际分工的深度,就要顺应全球贸易的发展方向,充分利用两种资源两个市场,大力发展产业内贸易,尤其是工业制成品的产业内贸易,以转变经济增长方式,提高发展质量,实现科学发展。
本文将中国工业制成品产业内贸易置入世界经济一体化以及中国改革开放30年来对外贸易高速发展的背景中,依据相关产业内贸易理论,借鉴国内外已有的研究成果,在科学界定产业分类、产业内贸易概念的基础上,采用静态分析与动态分析相结合、指标分析与计量分析相结合的方法,以中国工业制成品贸易发展为切入点,利用1992-2009年的面板数据,对于中国工业制成品产业内贸易水平、边际产业内贸易水平、中国与主要贸易伙伴国工业制成品的产业贸易水平进行全面测度,从产业与国别两个角度分别考查中国工业制成产业内贸易的发展水平,同时结合贸易竞争力指数来分析中国工业制成品产业内贸易的发展状况；利用GHM法与Giuseppe Celi细分法对中国制成品77个产业的贸易类型进行研究判断,从产业角度进一步考查中国工业制成品产业内贸易发展现状,以发现中国工业制成品产业内贸易发展的特征与内在规律；建立回归模型,对中国工业制成品产业内贸易与经济增长的关系进行协整分析与因果检验；选取人均GDP水平、贸易不平衡程度、规模经济状况和外商直接投资等4个产业内贸易的影响因素,分别进行回归分析与因果关系检验；最后,在上述分析研究结论的基础上从政府与产业两个层面提出中国乃至发展中国家发展制成品产业内贸易的建议。
本文力图通过研究,选择适合中国产业内贸易发展的理论并用于指导中国工业制成品产业内贸易发展的实践,同时完善国内关于工业制成品产业内贸易类型的研究,丰富国内关于产业内贸易研究的经验。
Since Word War Ⅱ, there are many changes in the international trade activities, the most important change is a new international trade model appeared during the developed country:a country will export and import within the same industry products. The sixties in20th century, this kind of trade is rapidly developed between the developed countries, then developed in new industrialized country and developing country. According to the traditional trade theory that trade will be caused during the much difference of producing factor and labor producing ratio, such as developed country and developing country. So the traditional theory didn't explain such economic phenomenon that a country will export and import within the same industry products. Theory will be followed the change of economic phenomenon and trade practice. Economists call it as intra-industry trade that a country will export and import the same industry products, attempting to explain by theory of magnitudes economic and non-complete competition, so intra-industry trade theory appeared significantly and became one of the front research of international trade in40's.
Since the reform and opening about40years, china economic enter into international division system work in the speed that never meet, so the international trade is keeping development in high speed and promoting the situation in the world trade.
During developing of china international trade and transferring of exporting strategic, manufacturing industry developed obviously and the proportion of exporting promoted annual continually., and became main industry in the national economic.
After World War Ⅱ, economy globalization make economic contact each tightly among country, each country will be one part of the whole international division system in the world. The development of intra-industry trade in the world in cause of competition of intra-industry will influence china to take part in international division system work which can not be ignored. The development of intra-industrial trade plays a very important role in promoting exporting structure and industrialization process to change the position of international distribution, even weaken affection to domestic labor market by opening ecomomy.China want to accomplish from power trade country to powerful trade country, enlarge attending degree of international division work, should attempt to develop trend of globe trade, to use two market of two resource, developing intra-industry trade especially manufacturing industry intra-industry trade, transferring developing model and promoting product quality to realize development in science.
Base on china manufacturing intra-industry in world globalization and background of30years development of international trade with china reforming and opening up, according to relevant trade theory of intra-industry trade and relevant research study no matter in domestic or oversea, base on the concept of intra-industry trade is classified by science field, by the method of static analysis and dynamic analysis, index analysis and quantity analysis combination, the paper discover the characteristic and immanent disciplinarian of china manufacturing intra-industry trade development through the following:
Firstly survey the level of manufacturing intra-industry to control the actual situation of china intra-industry trade using the trade data form1992to2009:the level of bound's intra-industry trade and manufacturing intra-industry trade of china with main trade partner country, the developing condition of manufacturing intra-industry trade will be analysised y inspecting developing level of manufacturing intra-industry trade in china from industry and nationality combining with the index of trade competitivity.
Secondly discover the characteristic and disciplinarian of intra-industry trade by researching and judging for trade model of77industries by method of GHM and Giuseppe Celi.
Next,establish regress model, to analysis and result checking the relationship between china manufacturing intra-industrial trade and economy rising; meanwhile select average per person GDP, foreigner direct investment magnitude's economy's status, unbalance trade extent change of4affecting factor.
Finally the paper makes some suggestions for the development of intra-industry trade of manufacturing industry in china and other developing country.
Base on research, this paper attempt to select suitable theory of intra-industry trade for china manufacturing industry and guide intra-industry trade of china manufacturing practice, meanwhile perfect the research of manufacturing intra-industry trade model and enrich the experience of intra-industry trade research in china.
引文
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