框架效应对初中生风险决策的影响
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摘要
风险决策是指决策者在做决策时,可以估算出或者预测出未来事件可能发生的概率,在此情况下,选择与决策者预期效果最接近的方案,并且这一选择的过程和决策的后果都是不确定的。2002年Kahneman和Tversky发现了风险决策中的框架效应,并因此荻得诺贝尔经济学奖获,风险决策和框架效应之间关系研的究很快成为众多研究者的关注的热点问题之一。框架效应是指对于同的信息,同一问题的使用不同表述方式会导致决策者选择偏好发生改变的现象。本研究从心理学角度出发,采用心理学的研究方法,探讨了初中生的风险决策倾向及其框架效应的特点
本文共包括两个研究,研究一整群抽取了某中学初中学生作为被试,采用经典的“亚洲疾病问题”改编的风险决策倾向问卷,考察了初中生整体的风险决策倾向的性别和年级的特点及其框架效应。研究二仍选取初中生做为被试,在研究一的基础上引入情绪和角色变量,通过诱发积极和消极情绪,探讨了情绪、角色和框架对初中生风险决策倾向的影响。
本次研究的结果显示
(1)初中生在风险决策时出现了明显的框架效应,负框架下的被试倾向于风险寻求,而正框架下的被试倾向于风险规避。
(2)性别变量对风险决策倾向产生了显著差异,男性被试在进行风险决策时更倾向于做出风险寻求,而女性被试在进行风险决策时则相对保守,史倾向于风险规避。
(3)不同年级的初中生在不同框架条件下风险决策时也出现了显著差异,在正框架条件下,初二年级的被试相对于初一年级的被试在进行决策时更倾向于风险寻求。
(4)初中生在负框架条件下比正框架表现出更强的风险寻求倾向,受到积极情绪影响的被试比消极情绪影响的被试更具有风险寻求倾向,自我角色条件下被试更具有风险寻求倾向
(5)正框架条件下,受到积极情绪的影响的被试会更倾向于做出风险寻求,而受到消极情绪影响的被试相对倾向于风险规避。正框架条件下,自我角色组的被试会更倾向于做出风险寻求,他人角色组的被试相对倾向于风险规避。
Risk decision refers to the decision with best desired results, which is chosen in the condition where we are able to estimate or predict the probability of events in the future. This process and the result of risk decision are uncertain. Since framing effect of risk decision found by2002Nobel economics laureate Kahneman and Tversky, the analysis of the relationship between the effect of risk decision and its framing effects has quickly become one of the hot issues. Framing effects refers to the phenomenon that different expression approaches for the same information and question will affect the choice preference of decision makers. This study is based on the perspective of psychology and will adopt psychological research methods to analyze the characteristics of the tendency of junior high school students'risk decison and its framing effects.
This paper consists of two researches. For the first research, students of a high shcool are subjects, the classic "Asia disease problem" risk decision tendency questionnaire has been adopted, investigates the overall tendency of risk decision-making of gender and grade in junior high school students and the framing effects. The second research still selected the junior high school students as subjects, emotions and the role of variables has been introduced on the basis of the first research. Through evoking positive and negative emotions, the effects caused by emotions, roles and framing effects for the influence of risk decision tendency of junior middle school students have been discussed.
The results of the study show that:
(1) There are obvious framing effects when junior high school students make risk decision. Under the negative framework, subjects tend to seek risk, while under the positive framework the subjects tend to be risk aversion.
(2) The gender variable has caused significant differences of risk decision tendency. The male subjects tend to risk seeking when they are making risk decisions, while female subjects are more conservative and more inclined to risk aversion.
(3) There are distinguished differences in risk decisions made by junior middle school students from different grades in the condition of different frameworks. Students in grade two are more more inclined to risk seeking compared to students in grade in positive framework.
(4) Junior high school students in negative framework conditions show more risk seeking tendencies than in positive framework. Subjects that affected by postive emotions are more inclined to risk seeking than those in negetive emotions. Subjects in self-role conditions have more risk seeking tendency.
(5) In positive frameworks, subjects affected by positive emotions tend to risk seeking, while subjects affected by negative emotions tend to make risk aversion. In positive framework conditions, subjects in self role group will be more inclined to risk seeking, subjects in other-role group tend to risk aversion.
本文共包括两个研究,研究一整群抽取了某中学初中学生作为被试,采用经典的“亚洲疾病问题”改编的风险决策倾向问卷,考察了初中生整体的风险决策倾向的性别和年级的特点及其框架效应。研究二仍选取初中生做为被试,在研究一的基础上引入情绪和角色变量,通过诱发积极和消极情绪,探讨了情绪、角色和框架对初中生风险决策倾向的影响。
本次研究的结果显示
(1)初中生在风险决策时出现了明显的框架效应,负框架下的被试倾向于风险寻求,而正框架下的被试倾向于风险规避。
(2)性别变量对风险决策倾向产生了显著差异,男性被试在进行风险决策时更倾向于做出风险寻求,而女性被试在进行风险决策时则相对保守,史倾向于风险规避。
(3)不同年级的初中生在不同框架条件下风险决策时也出现了显著差异,在正框架条件下,初二年级的被试相对于初一年级的被试在进行决策时更倾向于风险寻求。
(4)初中生在负框架条件下比正框架表现出更强的风险寻求倾向,受到积极情绪影响的被试比消极情绪影响的被试更具有风险寻求倾向,自我角色条件下被试更具有风险寻求倾向
(5)正框架条件下,受到积极情绪的影响的被试会更倾向于做出风险寻求,而受到消极情绪影响的被试相对倾向于风险规避。正框架条件下,自我角色组的被试会更倾向于做出风险寻求,他人角色组的被试相对倾向于风险规避。
Risk decision refers to the decision with best desired results, which is chosen in the condition where we are able to estimate or predict the probability of events in the future. This process and the result of risk decision are uncertain. Since framing effect of risk decision found by2002Nobel economics laureate Kahneman and Tversky, the analysis of the relationship between the effect of risk decision and its framing effects has quickly become one of the hot issues. Framing effects refers to the phenomenon that different expression approaches for the same information and question will affect the choice preference of decision makers. This study is based on the perspective of psychology and will adopt psychological research methods to analyze the characteristics of the tendency of junior high school students'risk decison and its framing effects.
This paper consists of two researches. For the first research, students of a high shcool are subjects, the classic "Asia disease problem" risk decision tendency questionnaire has been adopted, investigates the overall tendency of risk decision-making of gender and grade in junior high school students and the framing effects. The second research still selected the junior high school students as subjects, emotions and the role of variables has been introduced on the basis of the first research. Through evoking positive and negative emotions, the effects caused by emotions, roles and framing effects for the influence of risk decision tendency of junior middle school students have been discussed.
The results of the study show that:
(1) There are obvious framing effects when junior high school students make risk decision. Under the negative framework, subjects tend to seek risk, while under the positive framework the subjects tend to be risk aversion.
(2) The gender variable has caused significant differences of risk decision tendency. The male subjects tend to risk seeking when they are making risk decisions, while female subjects are more conservative and more inclined to risk aversion.
(3) There are distinguished differences in risk decisions made by junior middle school students from different grades in the condition of different frameworks. Students in grade two are more more inclined to risk seeking compared to students in grade in positive framework.
(4) Junior high school students in negative framework conditions show more risk seeking tendencies than in positive framework. Subjects that affected by postive emotions are more inclined to risk seeking than those in negetive emotions. Subjects in self-role conditions have more risk seeking tendency.
(5) In positive frameworks, subjects affected by positive emotions tend to risk seeking, while subjects affected by negative emotions tend to make risk aversion. In positive framework conditions, subjects in self role group will be more inclined to risk seeking, subjects in other-role group tend to risk aversion.
引文
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[2]庄锦英.决策心理学[M].上海：上海教育出版社,2006
[3]Tversky A, Kahneman D. The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice[J]. Science, 1981,211:453-458
[4]Li S. Equate-to-differentiate theory:A coherent bi-choice modelacross certainty, uncertainty and risk. Dissertation Abstracts International section B:The Sciences and Engineering,1994, 55(4-B):1658
[5]Kahneman D,&Tversky A. Prospect theory:An analysis of decision under risk [J]. Econometrica,1979,47:263-291
[6]李纾,房永青,张迅捷.再探框架对风险决策行为的影响[J].心理学报,2000,32(2)：229-234
[7]Kiihberger A. The influence of framing on risky decisions:A meta-analysis[J]. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,1998,75(1):23-55
[8]Wang X T. Framing effects:Dynamics and task domains [J]. Organizational behavior and human decision processes,1996,68(2):145-157
[9]Fagley N S, Miller P M. Framing effects and arenas of choice:Your money or your life[J]. Organization Behavior and Human Decision Processes,1997,71(3):355-373
[10]Kuhberger A. Theoretical conceptions of framing effects in risky decisions. Decision Making: cognitive models and explanations Routledge[J]. London:1997,128-144
[11]Wang X T. Framing Effects:Dynamics and Task Domains[J]. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,1996,11:145-157
[12]Wang X T, Simons F & Bredart S. Social cues and verbal framing in risky choice[J]. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making.2001,14:1 - 15
[13]LeBoeuf R A, Shafir E. Deep thoughts and shallow frames:on the susceptibility to framing effects[J]. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making.2003,16(2):77-92
[14]梁竹苑,许燕等.决策中个体差异研究现状述评[J].心理科学进展,2007,15(4)：689-694
[15]黄玮,余嘉元.框架效应对决策的影响研究综述[J].江苏技术师范学院学报,23(2)：92-98
[16]于会会,徐富明等.框架效应中的个体差异[J].心理科学进展,2012,20(6)：894-901
[17]Levin I P, Gaeth G J, Schreiber J,& Lauriola M. A new look at framing effects:Distribution of effect sizes, individual differences, and indePendence of tyPes of effects[J]. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,2002,88(1):411-429
[18]白湘云,王文忠,罗跃嘉.行为与情绪的框架效应及其与个性的关系[J].心理科学,2007,30(6)：1321-1323
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