中国省际节能减排政策的技术进步效应分析
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摘要
保持经济增长、能源节约和环境保护三者协调发展是中国当前乃至今后相当长一段时期内所面临的主要问题。目前,学者们普遍认为,开发或推广一批能源节约型与环境友好型新技术是解决上述问题的最有效方式之一。然而,由于外部性等市场失灵现象存在,企业对节能减排先进技术进行自主创新及推广缺乏足够的动力,因此需要政府采取适当措施加以积极引导。在此背景下,节能减排政策作为政府干预经济发展方式与途径的重要手段之一,其对中国节能减排技术进步的影响值得关注。
截止目前,对中国节能减排政策的技术进步效应进行系统研究的文献尚不多见。鉴于此,本论文对该领域进行了理论探源和实证分析。首先,本文从技术和制度两个层面将节能减排技术进步定义为,与现有技术或管理制度相比,提高了生产单位能源效率或(和)环境绩效的一系列新产品、生产过程或工艺、管理方式、制度设计的开发或采用。随后,在前沿分析框架内,对传统二维方向性距离函数进行拓展,构建节能减排全要素生产率增长指数作为该技术进步的度量指标。在此基础上,运用数学规划方法估算了中国各省区节能减排技术变动率,通过对该技术变动率在节能减排政策实施前后的对比分析,考察中国节能减排政策的技术进步效应。最后,运用空间面板数据模型,对导致节能减排技术进步的原因进行了理论探析。本论文的主要内容包括如下几个方面：
(1)节能减排技术进步的测度方法与建模
首先,通过设定一个考虑经济增长、能源节约和污染物减排的三维方向向量,定义了节能减排方向性距离函数,该函数确定了节能减排技术的生产前沿,即在非能源投入给定条件下,用最小的能源投入生产最大的经济产出且排放最少的污染物。然后,运用Luenberger生产率指数构建方法,构造了测度节能减排技术变动指标——节能减排技术的全要素生产率指数。该指数值度量了后期节能减排技术水平相对于前期水平的变动率,数值大于、小于、等于零分别表示技术进步、技术退步、技术相对停滞。最后,依据实现技术进步的途径不同,进一步将节能减排技术进步分解为技术创新和技术扩散两种作用形式。
(2)中国省际节能减排政策的技术进步效应实证分析
运用数据包络分析(DEA)方法,通过对中国2001-2010年省际层面节能减排全要素生产率变动趋势进行测度与对比,分析中国“十一五”期间节能减排政策的技术进步效应。首先,从作用效果上看,政策实施之前(2001-2005)全国节能减排技术变动率均值为0.82%,政策实施后(2006-2010)的均值是2.51%,由此可见,节能减排政策实施促使全国技术进步速率增加了2倍以上。然而,这一效应存在着显著的区域差异,其中,24个省区的技术进步率因政策实施出现不同程度地升高,而其余6个省区的技术进步率略有降低。同时,省际层面技术进步率的收敛性检验结果表明：节能减排政策实施促进技术进步率的区域差异呈现缩小趋势。其次,从作用途径上看,节能减排政策对全国技术进步的促进效应更多地得益于先进节能减排技术的加快推广,而技术创新的贡献相对较小。其中,东部发达地区主要通过技术创新实现技术进步,而中西部欠发达地区则更多地通过加快推广现有成熟技术的方式提高自身技术水平。因此,目前中国节能减排政策的技术促进效应主要源自于中西部欠发达地区加快使用先进节能减排技术,未来政策应重点刺激各地区从事节能减排技术创新活动。
(3)中国省际节能减排技术进步的原因探析
运用空间面板数据模型,估算了经济发展水平、产业结构、知识资本以及能源结构等因素对节能减排技术进步率的影响。结果显示,邻近地区技术水平变动具有显著的相互依赖性；区域经济发展水平的提高、第二产业占GDP比重的提升以及R&D投资的增加,均在不同程度上促进了节能减排技术进步。就各指标的贡献份额而言,前两个变量对节能减排技术进步的促进作用较为显著,而R&D投资的节能减排技术进步效应不甚明显。因此,后续节能减排政策应重点刺激各地区增加R&D投资中节能减排技术创新资金的比重。最后,能源结构中煤炭比重增加会弱化节能减排技术进步,但是这一作用并不显著。
Making economic growth compatible with energy conservation and environmental protection has become an outstanding theme China facing in the current and in the future. In general, scholars agreed that one of the most effective ways to solve this problem is to develop or adopt energy-saving and\or environmental-friendly technology (EET). However, the externality of technology change reduces the incentives for firm to invest in this type of technologies. It is indispensable for government to make some measures for the development of the EET. Against this background, it is significant to analyze the effect of energy-saving and emissions-reduction policy (ESER) to technological change of EET (EETC), since ESER is one of ways for China's government intervening economic development, which refers to a package of policy instruments for tackling energy shortage and environmental deterioration in the11th Five-Year Plan.
Up to now, there are few studies on technology change effect of ESER. This paper tries to fill this gap by studying its related theories and empirical methods. First, from the two perspectives--technology and institution, this paper defines EETC as:compared to relevant alternatives, the development or adoption of a product, production process, management method and institution that is novel to the organization (developing or adopting it), which results, throughout its life cycle, in the improvement of energy efficiency and/or environmental performance. Subsequently, in the frontier analysis framework, this analysis expands the two-dimension directional distance function to define the energy-saving and emissions-reduction directional distance function (EDDF), and then use it to construct the TFP growth index of EET. The main conclusions are as follows,
(1) The construction of TFP growth index of EET
This paper defines EDDF by setting a three-dimensional vector which determines the direction of technological change towards the frontier of EET. Following their respective directions, energy inputs, emissions and desirable outputs can be translated to get the frontier, where producers attain the maximum of desirable outputs and emit the least of undesirable outputs using the minimum of energy inputs along with a given amount of non-energy inputs. According to the construction method of Luenberger productivity index, this analysis uses EDDF to construct the TFP growth index of EET, which measures EETC across periods. Its value of larger or less than and equal to zero shows technical progress, technical regress and technical relative stagnation. Moreover, according to the way to obtain technology change, the indicator can be decomposed two components:technological innovation and technology adoption.
(2) Empirical analysis on the impact of ESER on EETC in China
This paper employs DEA method to calculate EETC. The results show that, the value of technology change before (2001-2005) and after (2006-2010) the enforcement of ESER is0.82%and2.51%, respectively. The enforcement of ESER increases the rate of technical progress at the national level by more than two times. However, the effects across provinces are different. ESER accelerates technological progress rates of24provinces, but slightly decrease the progress rates for6provinces. The convergence test on technological progress rates for30provinces in the11th Five-Year Plan shows the difference will be diminishing over time. From the specific way, technological progress effect of ESER at the national level is mainly attributed to accelerated adoption of the frontier technology, and the effect of technical innovation is relatively weak. Specifically, the provinces located in the east area attain technical progress by increasing technical innovation activities of EET, and the provinces in the central and west area obtain technical progress by accelerating the adoption for advanced technologies.
(3) The determinants of EETC
This paper employs spatial panel data regression approach to estimate the impact of economic development level, economic structure, knowledge capital stock and energy structure on EETC. The results shows, technology change rates between adjacent provinces are interdependent; the enhancement in economic development level, or the increase in the ratio of the second industry to GDP or R&D investment, promotes significantly technology progress of EET, and comparing the elasticity values for the three coefficients, the value for R&D investment is the smallest. Therefore, the future ESER should focus on the incentives of regions investing in technical innovation of EET. Finally, the proportion of coal to total energy consumption weakens technology progress of EET, but the impact is not significant.
截止目前,对中国节能减排政策的技术进步效应进行系统研究的文献尚不多见。鉴于此,本论文对该领域进行了理论探源和实证分析。首先,本文从技术和制度两个层面将节能减排技术进步定义为,与现有技术或管理制度相比,提高了生产单位能源效率或(和)环境绩效的一系列新产品、生产过程或工艺、管理方式、制度设计的开发或采用。随后,在前沿分析框架内,对传统二维方向性距离函数进行拓展,构建节能减排全要素生产率增长指数作为该技术进步的度量指标。在此基础上,运用数学规划方法估算了中国各省区节能减排技术变动率,通过对该技术变动率在节能减排政策实施前后的对比分析,考察中国节能减排政策的技术进步效应。最后,运用空间面板数据模型,对导致节能减排技术进步的原因进行了理论探析。本论文的主要内容包括如下几个方面：
(1)节能减排技术进步的测度方法与建模
首先,通过设定一个考虑经济增长、能源节约和污染物减排的三维方向向量,定义了节能减排方向性距离函数,该函数确定了节能减排技术的生产前沿,即在非能源投入给定条件下,用最小的能源投入生产最大的经济产出且排放最少的污染物。然后,运用Luenberger生产率指数构建方法,构造了测度节能减排技术变动指标——节能减排技术的全要素生产率指数。该指数值度量了后期节能减排技术水平相对于前期水平的变动率,数值大于、小于、等于零分别表示技术进步、技术退步、技术相对停滞。最后,依据实现技术进步的途径不同,进一步将节能减排技术进步分解为技术创新和技术扩散两种作用形式。
(2)中国省际节能减排政策的技术进步效应实证分析
运用数据包络分析(DEA)方法,通过对中国2001-2010年省际层面节能减排全要素生产率变动趋势进行测度与对比,分析中国“十一五”期间节能减排政策的技术进步效应。首先,从作用效果上看,政策实施之前(2001-2005)全国节能减排技术变动率均值为0.82%,政策实施后(2006-2010)的均值是2.51%,由此可见,节能减排政策实施促使全国技术进步速率增加了2倍以上。然而,这一效应存在着显著的区域差异,其中,24个省区的技术进步率因政策实施出现不同程度地升高,而其余6个省区的技术进步率略有降低。同时,省际层面技术进步率的收敛性检验结果表明：节能减排政策实施促进技术进步率的区域差异呈现缩小趋势。其次,从作用途径上看,节能减排政策对全国技术进步的促进效应更多地得益于先进节能减排技术的加快推广,而技术创新的贡献相对较小。其中,东部发达地区主要通过技术创新实现技术进步,而中西部欠发达地区则更多地通过加快推广现有成熟技术的方式提高自身技术水平。因此,目前中国节能减排政策的技术促进效应主要源自于中西部欠发达地区加快使用先进节能减排技术,未来政策应重点刺激各地区从事节能减排技术创新活动。
(3)中国省际节能减排技术进步的原因探析
运用空间面板数据模型,估算了经济发展水平、产业结构、知识资本以及能源结构等因素对节能减排技术进步率的影响。结果显示,邻近地区技术水平变动具有显著的相互依赖性；区域经济发展水平的提高、第二产业占GDP比重的提升以及R&D投资的增加,均在不同程度上促进了节能减排技术进步。就各指标的贡献份额而言,前两个变量对节能减排技术进步的促进作用较为显著,而R&D投资的节能减排技术进步效应不甚明显。因此,后续节能减排政策应重点刺激各地区增加R&D投资中节能减排技术创新资金的比重。最后,能源结构中煤炭比重增加会弱化节能减排技术进步,但是这一作用并不显著。
Making economic growth compatible with energy conservation and environmental protection has become an outstanding theme China facing in the current and in the future. In general, scholars agreed that one of the most effective ways to solve this problem is to develop or adopt energy-saving and\or environmental-friendly technology (EET). However, the externality of technology change reduces the incentives for firm to invest in this type of technologies. It is indispensable for government to make some measures for the development of the EET. Against this background, it is significant to analyze the effect of energy-saving and emissions-reduction policy (ESER) to technological change of EET (EETC), since ESER is one of ways for China's government intervening economic development, which refers to a package of policy instruments for tackling energy shortage and environmental deterioration in the11th Five-Year Plan.
Up to now, there are few studies on technology change effect of ESER. This paper tries to fill this gap by studying its related theories and empirical methods. First, from the two perspectives--technology and institution, this paper defines EETC as:compared to relevant alternatives, the development or adoption of a product, production process, management method and institution that is novel to the organization (developing or adopting it), which results, throughout its life cycle, in the improvement of energy efficiency and/or environmental performance. Subsequently, in the frontier analysis framework, this analysis expands the two-dimension directional distance function to define the energy-saving and emissions-reduction directional distance function (EDDF), and then use it to construct the TFP growth index of EET. The main conclusions are as follows,
(1) The construction of TFP growth index of EET
This paper defines EDDF by setting a three-dimensional vector which determines the direction of technological change towards the frontier of EET. Following their respective directions, energy inputs, emissions and desirable outputs can be translated to get the frontier, where producers attain the maximum of desirable outputs and emit the least of undesirable outputs using the minimum of energy inputs along with a given amount of non-energy inputs. According to the construction method of Luenberger productivity index, this analysis uses EDDF to construct the TFP growth index of EET, which measures EETC across periods. Its value of larger or less than and equal to zero shows technical progress, technical regress and technical relative stagnation. Moreover, according to the way to obtain technology change, the indicator can be decomposed two components:technological innovation and technology adoption.
(2) Empirical analysis on the impact of ESER on EETC in China
This paper employs DEA method to calculate EETC. The results show that, the value of technology change before (2001-2005) and after (2006-2010) the enforcement of ESER is0.82%and2.51%, respectively. The enforcement of ESER increases the rate of technical progress at the national level by more than two times. However, the effects across provinces are different. ESER accelerates technological progress rates of24provinces, but slightly decrease the progress rates for6provinces. The convergence test on technological progress rates for30provinces in the11th Five-Year Plan shows the difference will be diminishing over time. From the specific way, technological progress effect of ESER at the national level is mainly attributed to accelerated adoption of the frontier technology, and the effect of technical innovation is relatively weak. Specifically, the provinces located in the east area attain technical progress by increasing technical innovation activities of EET, and the provinces in the central and west area obtain technical progress by accelerating the adoption for advanced technologies.
(3) The determinants of EETC
This paper employs spatial panel data regression approach to estimate the impact of economic development level, economic structure, knowledge capital stock and energy structure on EETC. The results shows, technology change rates between adjacent provinces are interdependent; the enhancement in economic development level, or the increase in the ratio of the second industry to GDP or R&D investment, promotes significantly technology progress of EET, and comparing the elasticity values for the three coefficients, the value for R&D investment is the smallest. Therefore, the future ESER should focus on the incentives of regions investing in technical innovation of EET. Finally, the proportion of coal to total energy consumption weakens technology progress of EET, but the impact is not significant.
引文
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