政府环境规制对低碳经济发展的影响及其实证研究
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摘要
由于人类社会经济活动引起的全球气候变暖,导致了人类生存环境的变异。为此,2003年英国政府首次提出发展低碳经济,随后受到世界各国的广泛关注,我国政府也将低碳经济视为可行的最可量化的可持续发展方式,并提到战略的高度加以对待。因此,研究政府环境规制对低碳经济发展的内在影响机理,为政府构建系统性的低碳经济发展运行机制,及制定公共政策措施提供理论参考和政策建议,以更好地发挥政府在低碳经济建设中的作用,从而推动低碳经济的科学发展具有重要意义。
文章沿理论分析、定性分析、定量分析的思路依次展开,在分别对政府环境规制理论和低碳经济发展理论进行梳理的基础上,回顾和总结国内外政府环境规制与低碳经济发展相互关系的文献,并基于此从理论上深入探讨政府环境规制对低碳经济发展的内在影响机理,进而从总量、产业结构、区域分别的视角实证分析了政府环境规制对低碳经济发展各个层面存在的影响,最后分析了政府环境规制对低碳经济发展影响的综合效应,取得了若干有意义的成果。
论文首先阐释了政府环境规制和低碳经济发展的基本内涵,概而言之,实施政府环境规制是为了协调经济与环境发展,发展低碳经济集中体现转型期我国实现经济与环境“双赢”的目标,两者之间存在必然联系。其次,分别论述了政府环境规制和低碳经济发展的理论依据,以进一步探析政府环境规制与低碳经济发展之间的内在机理,低碳经济的核心内容是协调经济与环境发展,符合创新系统理论、环境和资源经济理论的基本特征,因而基于环境问题外部性、环境产权模糊性、环境资源公共性和政府干预强制性而产生的政府环境规制理论对其发展具有重要意义;同时低碳经济理论与循环经济、生态经济、绿色经济理论存在必然联系又有差异,但从这些理论可以折射政府环境规制与低碳经济发展之间的理论渊源。再次,通过对相关文献进行总结,表明政府环境规制的基本方式能够有效缓解低碳经济发展中各个层面的问题,分别对低碳经济发展内生变量的优化、低碳型产业结构的形成、低碳经济的区域均衡发展和低碳经济主体积极性的激发具有重要作用。进而,基于3E系统构建了本文的理论框架,基于对政府环境规制如何有效影响低碳经济发展的考虑,从理论上论述了政府环境规制对低碳经济发展影响的总量特征；基于对政府环境规制如何影响低碳经济发展内生变量的考虑,论述了政府环境规制对低碳经济影响的结构特征和区域特征；基工政府环境规制影响低碳经济发展受其他因素的扰动,论述了多因素的影响机理。
在理论分析的基础上,论文运用计量经济模型实证分析了政府环境规制对低碳经济发展的影响机理。从总量、产业结构和区域三个层面分别构建了政府环境规制与低碳经济之间的固定参数模型和动态模型：基于总量视角,运用VAR模型,分析了政府环境规制投入与碳排放总量之间的动态关系,着重探讨了二者之间影响规律,结论为政府环境规制是影响低碳经济发展的格兰杰原因,并且存在长期均衡关系；基于产业结构视角,分析了第一、第二、第三产业的碳排放强度与政府环境规制之间的因果关系,结果表明政府环境规制与第一产业的碳排放强度之间不构成格兰杰因果关系,但政府环境规制是引起第二产业和第三产业碳排放强度变动的格兰杰原因,研究还表明政府环境规制对低碳型产业结构的形成具有积极影响；基于区域视角,分析了东、中、西部地区政府环境规制与碳排放量之间的长期均衡关系,结果表明我国各大区域的政府环境规制对低碳经济发展产生的影响存在差异,低碳经济发展中通过政府环境规制的作用有利于促进区域经济同时实现均衡化和低碳化发展。同时,文章还通过构建动态面板模型,重点考察政府环境规制这一因素对低碳经济发展的影响,并综合考虑区域差异、产业结构、居民消费、城市化水平等我国经济发展内生变量因素对碳排放量的影响,为政府环境规制在低碳经济发展中更好地发挥作用提供了有益参考,通过综合各种影响碳排放的因素分析得出低碳经济发展中要通过政府环境规制充分激励政府、企业和居民的低碳经济发展主体作用,以最终推动低碳经济发展。此外,实证模型分析还证明了城市化水平对碳排放量存在较大影响,其对碳排放量的影响程度甚至超过居民消费,因而加强政府环境规制对低碳城市建设的作用具有必要性和可行性。
最后,基于实证分析结果围绕着如何提高政府环境规制对低碳经济发展的影响效应的主题从加强政府的环境规制职能、构建低碳型产业结构、促进低碳经济的区域均衡发展和调动低碳经济主体的积极性四个方面提出了政策建议。
As the human's social and economic activities caused global warming, leading to a variation of the human environment. As the United Kingdom Government in2003firstly proposed the low-carbon economy,which is taken attention by the worldwide. The Chinese government also takes the low-carbon economy as a sustainable development way which can be quantified. It is referred to the strategic level to be treated. Therefore, the study of the internal mechanism between government environmental regulation and low-carbon economy is good for our government to build systematic legal system, mechanisms, and institutions to promote the development of low-carbon economy. Eventually, the government will better play the role to promote the development of low-carbon economy.
The thesis is written along the thinking of theoretical analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. Based on the theory and document studies about government environmental regulation and low-carbon economy,the thesis researched the mechanism of internal influence from government environmental regulation to low-carbon economy. In the course of the study,we selected three perspectives that are the total, industrial structure and regional,and at the end we analysed the combined effect of the impact of government environmental regulation on low-carbon economy. The thesis made a number of meaningful results.
The qualitative research of the thesis has included four aspects.The thesis firstly explained the basic connotations of governmentenvironmental regulation and low-carbon economiy.Due to the implementation of government environmental regul--ationis is in order to coordinate the development of the economy and environment and the aim of developing low-carbon economy is concentrated expression to achieve the common development between economic and environmental, we believe that there is definite link between the government environmental regulation and low-carbon economy. Secondly,There are deep theoretical origins between government environmental regulation and low-carbon economy.Since the core content of the low-carbon economy is to coordinate economic and environmental development,that is line with the fundamental purpose of government environmental regulation.Thirdly, Based on the literature study, we proved the basic way of government environmental regulationcan effectively alleviate the problem of different levels in the developmentof low-carbon economy. Government environmental regulation is conducive to the optimization of the endogenous variables of the low-carbon economy, the formation of low-carbon industrial structure, promote balanced regional development of low-carbon economy and stimulate the enthusiasm of economic entities. Finally, based on the theoretical framework of3E system,this thesis theoretically proved the total characteristics, structural characteristics and regionalcharacteristics of the government environmental regulation affecting the development of low-carbon economy.
The quantitative research of this article also has included four aspects. Firstly, Using VAR model, we have constructed a dynamic relationship system between government environmental regulation and carbon emissions, focusing on the relationship and influence between the two laws. Granger causality analysis shows that government environmental regulation is the Granger reason which changes carbon emissions. According to the VAR (2) model and impulse response analysis, the extent of government environmental regulation can have a significant impact on carbon emissions, But with rapid economic growth brought a lot of energy consumption, the extent of government environmental regulations is slower than the growth rate of carbon emissions. In recent years, the Government Environmental regulation had no significant effect on carbon emissions. We should Strengthen environmental regulation and apply various means of Government environmental regulations to promote the development of a low carbon economy.
Secondly, Chinese Government attaches great importance to develop low-carbon economy and China's industrial structure is an important factor in carbon emission, we firstly have described the situation of China's energy consumption in three industries, and based on that analyses carbon emission of the three industries. The result are that the most carbon emission is from industrial and the key to develop low-carbon economy is to upgrade the industrial structure. Secondly, Granger causality test based on the VAR model shows that there is no causal relationship between government environmental regulation and the first industrial carbon emissions. However, government environmental regulation is the Granger cause of the primary industry and tertiary industry carbon emissions per unit of GDP. Finally, from the angle of government environmental regulation, this thesis proposes policy recommendations about how to develop low-carbon economy.
Thirdly,The eastern, central, and western government environmental regulations put impact on low-carbon economic development in differences. The largest carbon emission is in the eastern part and its carbon emission grows faster. However, most of the eastern region has completed the industrialization, therefore the eastern region most likely to achieve low carbon economic growth in the role of government environmental regulation. The governmental environmental regulations of central and western regions are not the Granger causes of their carbon emissions. But carbon emissions of central and western regions are the Granger causes of their government environmental regulations. Government environmental regulation will help to promote the regional economies achieving a balanced and low-carbon development at the same time.
Finally, many scholars in China believe that development of low-carbon economy needs government, business and residents work together to promote. According to that, we use the data from2003to2010of30provinces in China to research carbon emissions related to the government environmental management of public investment, industrial structure,the level of consumption, regional differences, and the level of urbanization.The results show that the impacts of various factors caused a combined effect on the development of low-carbon economy.Government should develop a public policy system of low carbon economy and educate the residents to support the development of low-carbon economy. Enterprises should take the initiative to take responsibility for energy conservation and provide low carbon products and services to the residents. Residents should form a low-carbon consumption and participate in the public governance to develop low-carbon economy.
The conclusion, we propose four policy proposals.There are strengthening the environmental regulatory functions of government, building a low-carbon industrial structure,promoting balanced development of regional low-carbon economy and encouraging the main of low-carbon economy.
文章沿理论分析、定性分析、定量分析的思路依次展开,在分别对政府环境规制理论和低碳经济发展理论进行梳理的基础上,回顾和总结国内外政府环境规制与低碳经济发展相互关系的文献,并基于此从理论上深入探讨政府环境规制对低碳经济发展的内在影响机理,进而从总量、产业结构、区域分别的视角实证分析了政府环境规制对低碳经济发展各个层面存在的影响,最后分析了政府环境规制对低碳经济发展影响的综合效应,取得了若干有意义的成果。
论文首先阐释了政府环境规制和低碳经济发展的基本内涵,概而言之,实施政府环境规制是为了协调经济与环境发展,发展低碳经济集中体现转型期我国实现经济与环境“双赢”的目标,两者之间存在必然联系。其次,分别论述了政府环境规制和低碳经济发展的理论依据,以进一步探析政府环境规制与低碳经济发展之间的内在机理,低碳经济的核心内容是协调经济与环境发展,符合创新系统理论、环境和资源经济理论的基本特征,因而基于环境问题外部性、环境产权模糊性、环境资源公共性和政府干预强制性而产生的政府环境规制理论对其发展具有重要意义;同时低碳经济理论与循环经济、生态经济、绿色经济理论存在必然联系又有差异,但从这些理论可以折射政府环境规制与低碳经济发展之间的理论渊源。再次,通过对相关文献进行总结,表明政府环境规制的基本方式能够有效缓解低碳经济发展中各个层面的问题,分别对低碳经济发展内生变量的优化、低碳型产业结构的形成、低碳经济的区域均衡发展和低碳经济主体积极性的激发具有重要作用。进而,基于3E系统构建了本文的理论框架,基于对政府环境规制如何有效影响低碳经济发展的考虑,从理论上论述了政府环境规制对低碳经济发展影响的总量特征；基于对政府环境规制如何影响低碳经济发展内生变量的考虑,论述了政府环境规制对低碳经济影响的结构特征和区域特征；基工政府环境规制影响低碳经济发展受其他因素的扰动,论述了多因素的影响机理。
在理论分析的基础上,论文运用计量经济模型实证分析了政府环境规制对低碳经济发展的影响机理。从总量、产业结构和区域三个层面分别构建了政府环境规制与低碳经济之间的固定参数模型和动态模型：基于总量视角,运用VAR模型,分析了政府环境规制投入与碳排放总量之间的动态关系,着重探讨了二者之间影响规律,结论为政府环境规制是影响低碳经济发展的格兰杰原因,并且存在长期均衡关系；基于产业结构视角,分析了第一、第二、第三产业的碳排放强度与政府环境规制之间的因果关系,结果表明政府环境规制与第一产业的碳排放强度之间不构成格兰杰因果关系,但政府环境规制是引起第二产业和第三产业碳排放强度变动的格兰杰原因,研究还表明政府环境规制对低碳型产业结构的形成具有积极影响；基于区域视角,分析了东、中、西部地区政府环境规制与碳排放量之间的长期均衡关系,结果表明我国各大区域的政府环境规制对低碳经济发展产生的影响存在差异,低碳经济发展中通过政府环境规制的作用有利于促进区域经济同时实现均衡化和低碳化发展。同时,文章还通过构建动态面板模型,重点考察政府环境规制这一因素对低碳经济发展的影响,并综合考虑区域差异、产业结构、居民消费、城市化水平等我国经济发展内生变量因素对碳排放量的影响,为政府环境规制在低碳经济发展中更好地发挥作用提供了有益参考,通过综合各种影响碳排放的因素分析得出低碳经济发展中要通过政府环境规制充分激励政府、企业和居民的低碳经济发展主体作用,以最终推动低碳经济发展。此外,实证模型分析还证明了城市化水平对碳排放量存在较大影响,其对碳排放量的影响程度甚至超过居民消费,因而加强政府环境规制对低碳城市建设的作用具有必要性和可行性。
最后,基于实证分析结果围绕着如何提高政府环境规制对低碳经济发展的影响效应的主题从加强政府的环境规制职能、构建低碳型产业结构、促进低碳经济的区域均衡发展和调动低碳经济主体的积极性四个方面提出了政策建议。
As the human's social and economic activities caused global warming, leading to a variation of the human environment. As the United Kingdom Government in2003firstly proposed the low-carbon economy,which is taken attention by the worldwide. The Chinese government also takes the low-carbon economy as a sustainable development way which can be quantified. It is referred to the strategic level to be treated. Therefore, the study of the internal mechanism between government environmental regulation and low-carbon economy is good for our government to build systematic legal system, mechanisms, and institutions to promote the development of low-carbon economy. Eventually, the government will better play the role to promote the development of low-carbon economy.
The thesis is written along the thinking of theoretical analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. Based on the theory and document studies about government environmental regulation and low-carbon economy,the thesis researched the mechanism of internal influence from government environmental regulation to low-carbon economy. In the course of the study,we selected three perspectives that are the total, industrial structure and regional,and at the end we analysed the combined effect of the impact of government environmental regulation on low-carbon economy. The thesis made a number of meaningful results.
The qualitative research of the thesis has included four aspects.The thesis firstly explained the basic connotations of governmentenvironmental regulation and low-carbon economiy.Due to the implementation of government environmental regul--ationis is in order to coordinate the development of the economy and environment and the aim of developing low-carbon economy is concentrated expression to achieve the common development between economic and environmental, we believe that there is definite link between the government environmental regulation and low-carbon economy. Secondly,There are deep theoretical origins between government environmental regulation and low-carbon economy.Since the core content of the low-carbon economy is to coordinate economic and environmental development,that is line with the fundamental purpose of government environmental regulation.Thirdly, Based on the literature study, we proved the basic way of government environmental regulationcan effectively alleviate the problem of different levels in the developmentof low-carbon economy. Government environmental regulation is conducive to the optimization of the endogenous variables of the low-carbon economy, the formation of low-carbon industrial structure, promote balanced regional development of low-carbon economy and stimulate the enthusiasm of economic entities. Finally, based on the theoretical framework of3E system,this thesis theoretically proved the total characteristics, structural characteristics and regionalcharacteristics of the government environmental regulation affecting the development of low-carbon economy.
The quantitative research of this article also has included four aspects. Firstly, Using VAR model, we have constructed a dynamic relationship system between government environmental regulation and carbon emissions, focusing on the relationship and influence between the two laws. Granger causality analysis shows that government environmental regulation is the Granger reason which changes carbon emissions. According to the VAR (2) model and impulse response analysis, the extent of government environmental regulation can have a significant impact on carbon emissions, But with rapid economic growth brought a lot of energy consumption, the extent of government environmental regulations is slower than the growth rate of carbon emissions. In recent years, the Government Environmental regulation had no significant effect on carbon emissions. We should Strengthen environmental regulation and apply various means of Government environmental regulations to promote the development of a low carbon economy.
Secondly, Chinese Government attaches great importance to develop low-carbon economy and China's industrial structure is an important factor in carbon emission, we firstly have described the situation of China's energy consumption in three industries, and based on that analyses carbon emission of the three industries. The result are that the most carbon emission is from industrial and the key to develop low-carbon economy is to upgrade the industrial structure. Secondly, Granger causality test based on the VAR model shows that there is no causal relationship between government environmental regulation and the first industrial carbon emissions. However, government environmental regulation is the Granger cause of the primary industry and tertiary industry carbon emissions per unit of GDP. Finally, from the angle of government environmental regulation, this thesis proposes policy recommendations about how to develop low-carbon economy.
Thirdly,The eastern, central, and western government environmental regulations put impact on low-carbon economic development in differences. The largest carbon emission is in the eastern part and its carbon emission grows faster. However, most of the eastern region has completed the industrialization, therefore the eastern region most likely to achieve low carbon economic growth in the role of government environmental regulation. The governmental environmental regulations of central and western regions are not the Granger causes of their carbon emissions. But carbon emissions of central and western regions are the Granger causes of their government environmental regulations. Government environmental regulation will help to promote the regional economies achieving a balanced and low-carbon development at the same time.
Finally, many scholars in China believe that development of low-carbon economy needs government, business and residents work together to promote. According to that, we use the data from2003to2010of30provinces in China to research carbon emissions related to the government environmental management of public investment, industrial structure,the level of consumption, regional differences, and the level of urbanization.The results show that the impacts of various factors caused a combined effect on the development of low-carbon economy.Government should develop a public policy system of low carbon economy and educate the residents to support the development of low-carbon economy. Enterprises should take the initiative to take responsibility for energy conservation and provide low carbon products and services to the residents. Residents should form a low-carbon consumption and participate in the public governance to develop low-carbon economy.
The conclusion, we propose four policy proposals.There are strengthening the environmental regulatory functions of government, building a low-carbon industrial structure,promoting balanced development of regional low-carbon economy and encouraging the main of low-carbon economy.
引文
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