前置时间和交付数量不确定条件下的供应链可靠性研究
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摘要
随着经济的不断发展,现在商业已经由单纯的企业与企业之间的竞争逐渐演变为以核心企业为中心的供应链之间的竞争。供应链系统是由—系列的节点企业所构成的复杂系统,由于其在运行中存在许多问题,从而导致了整个供应链系统的不可靠。本文就是针对供应链的不可靠进行研究,研究中主要是在供需平衡的前提下,对供应商的前置时间和对制造商的交付数量以及供应链整体可靠性的研究。
本文首先是对供应链的可靠性研究所存在的问题进行了分析,以及对随机过程与马尔科夫过程和GO法的原理分别进行了阐述。针对核心企业供应链,总结和归纳了供应链可靠性的影响因素。对以核心企业为主要研究对象的供应链建立可靠性模型,首先是运用马尔科夫过程对前置时间进行分析,得到其马尔科夫状态转移模型,并在此基础上分析得到供应商前置时间可靠性的稳定有效度,同时运用MATLAB编程得到供应商前置时间的稳定有效度的三维图。对以核心企业为主要研究对象的前提下,针对其生产系统,对其建立双侧截尾正态分布,从而得到制造商交付数量的可靠度函数。针对整个供应链,运用GO原理对其建立了GO模型,当供应链中的三个基本单元——供应商、制造商、销售商的可靠度函数均服从指数分布时,得到了供应链整体可靠度函数和失效率函数,并分别做出了函数图形,同时得出失效密度函数f(t)、可靠度函数Rs(t)、失效率函数λs(t)三者的关系。
最后本文在上述理论与方法的基础上,结合H企业的现状对其进行了实例验证,计算出了各种型号锚具的供应链的交付数量可靠性,并得出供应商B可以作为其主要的供应商,并可以考虑与供应商B发展为长期战略伙伴关系。同时计算出了生产系统中各个工序以及制造商的交付数量可靠性,并对整个供应链进行了分析评价。并对供应链整体可靠性进行了研究,得出了其可靠度函数公式以及函数图形。通过以上的理论和方法的分析以及验证,得出了确实可以解决企业中所存在的问题,从而为企业做出决策提供了依据。
Through continuous development of economy, the modern business competition has developed from a simple enterprise to enterprise competition gradually evolved with the core enterprise-based competition. Supply chain system is a complex system, which make up of a train of node-enterprises. There are so many problems in its operation, which leads to the whole supply. In the paper, chain system uncertain is researched. In the view of supply-demand balance, we study not only the supply chain time reliability between the upper reaches node enterprise and the core enterprise, but also supply chain amount reliability and the supply chain reliability between the lower reaches node enterprise and the core enterprise.
At the beginning, this paper analyzes the current problems of supply chain reliability and expounds stochastic process, Markov process and the principle of Go Method respectively. To the core enterprise supply chain, this paper summarizes the influence factors of the supply chain reliability. And On that basis, the reliability model is established. Then we analyse lead time by Markov process and obtain Markov state transition model. And on that basis, we obtain stable effective degrees of the supply chain time reliability. At the same time, for core enterprise supply chain, we get the3d map of time stability effective degrees according to MATLAB programming. When the core enterprise is the main research object, for the production control subsystem, through establishing the truncated normal distribution, we obtain supply chain number reliability function, and research the impact on the reliability of supply chain by qualitative pattern. For the whole supply chain, GO model is established through the principle of GO method. When reliability function of three the basic unit in the supply chain, such as suppliers, manufacturers and sellers obey the index distribution, the whole reliability function and failure rate function of supply chain are obtained, and the function graphic is made. At the same time, we also obtain the relationship among failure density function f(t), reliability function R,(t) and function failure rate λs(t).
Finally, on the based of above theories and methods, combination of the actual situation of an enterprise case, which is called as H enterprise, we calculate the supply chain number reliability in all the types of the supports, and obtain supplier B can be used as a leading supplier of H enterprise. Further, we can consider suppliers B as the long-term strategic partner relationship. At the same time, for the production processes of subsystem and the core enterprise, we also calculated their supply chain number reliability. And we analyze and evaluate the entire supply chain. In the view of entirety reliability of supply chain, we obtain the reliability function formula and function graphic of supply chain. Through the above theory and method analysis, it is found that them indeed can solve the problem of the enterprise, thus, to provide the basis for enterprise's decision.
本文首先是对供应链的可靠性研究所存在的问题进行了分析,以及对随机过程与马尔科夫过程和GO法的原理分别进行了阐述。针对核心企业供应链,总结和归纳了供应链可靠性的影响因素。对以核心企业为主要研究对象的供应链建立可靠性模型,首先是运用马尔科夫过程对前置时间进行分析,得到其马尔科夫状态转移模型,并在此基础上分析得到供应商前置时间可靠性的稳定有效度,同时运用MATLAB编程得到供应商前置时间的稳定有效度的三维图。对以核心企业为主要研究对象的前提下,针对其生产系统,对其建立双侧截尾正态分布,从而得到制造商交付数量的可靠度函数。针对整个供应链,运用GO原理对其建立了GO模型,当供应链中的三个基本单元——供应商、制造商、销售商的可靠度函数均服从指数分布时,得到了供应链整体可靠度函数和失效率函数,并分别做出了函数图形,同时得出失效密度函数f(t)、可靠度函数Rs(t)、失效率函数λs(t)三者的关系。
最后本文在上述理论与方法的基础上,结合H企业的现状对其进行了实例验证,计算出了各种型号锚具的供应链的交付数量可靠性,并得出供应商B可以作为其主要的供应商,并可以考虑与供应商B发展为长期战略伙伴关系。同时计算出了生产系统中各个工序以及制造商的交付数量可靠性,并对整个供应链进行了分析评价。并对供应链整体可靠性进行了研究,得出了其可靠度函数公式以及函数图形。通过以上的理论和方法的分析以及验证,得出了确实可以解决企业中所存在的问题,从而为企业做出决策提供了依据。
Through continuous development of economy, the modern business competition has developed from a simple enterprise to enterprise competition gradually evolved with the core enterprise-based competition. Supply chain system is a complex system, which make up of a train of node-enterprises. There are so many problems in its operation, which leads to the whole supply. In the paper, chain system uncertain is researched. In the view of supply-demand balance, we study not only the supply chain time reliability between the upper reaches node enterprise and the core enterprise, but also supply chain amount reliability and the supply chain reliability between the lower reaches node enterprise and the core enterprise.
At the beginning, this paper analyzes the current problems of supply chain reliability and expounds stochastic process, Markov process and the principle of Go Method respectively. To the core enterprise supply chain, this paper summarizes the influence factors of the supply chain reliability. And On that basis, the reliability model is established. Then we analyse lead time by Markov process and obtain Markov state transition model. And on that basis, we obtain stable effective degrees of the supply chain time reliability. At the same time, for core enterprise supply chain, we get the3d map of time stability effective degrees according to MATLAB programming. When the core enterprise is the main research object, for the production control subsystem, through establishing the truncated normal distribution, we obtain supply chain number reliability function, and research the impact on the reliability of supply chain by qualitative pattern. For the whole supply chain, GO model is established through the principle of GO method. When reliability function of three the basic unit in the supply chain, such as suppliers, manufacturers and sellers obey the index distribution, the whole reliability function and failure rate function of supply chain are obtained, and the function graphic is made. At the same time, we also obtain the relationship among failure density function f(t), reliability function R,(t) and function failure rate λs(t).
Finally, on the based of above theories and methods, combination of the actual situation of an enterprise case, which is called as H enterprise, we calculate the supply chain number reliability in all the types of the supports, and obtain supplier B can be used as a leading supplier of H enterprise. Further, we can consider suppliers B as the long-term strategic partner relationship. At the same time, for the production processes of subsystem and the core enterprise, we also calculated their supply chain number reliability. And we analyze and evaluate the entire supply chain. In the view of entirety reliability of supply chain, we obtain the reliability function formula and function graphic of supply chain. Through the above theory and method analysis, it is found that them indeed can solve the problem of the enterprise, thus, to provide the basis for enterprise's decision.
引文
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[4]刘元洪,罗明,刘仲英.供应链可靠性管理.现代管理科学[J],2005,(5)：15-16
[5]金秀满,朱晓华,许增.军事物流可靠性分析模型.军队采购与物流[J],2007,(5)：56-58
[6]李静.基于风险评估的供应链可靠性分析.消费导刊[J],2006,(11)：269-270
[7]曾峰,李夏苗.基于层次分析法的供应链可靠性分析.物流技术[J],2005,(10)：44-46
[8]方敏,刘晋.供应链可靠性研究.南京航空航天大学[D],2003：38-44
[9]齐楠楠,王笑坤.供应链可靠性的随机模型.科学技术与工程[J],2006,6(19)：3 153-3 156
[10]陈国华.基于可靠性与成本的供应链优化探讨.装备制造技术[J],2007,(4)：76-77
[11]蔡鉴明,曾峰.基于G0法的供应链可靠性分析.公路交通科技[J],2007,24(3)：141-144
[12]申红.第四方物流系统可靠性研究.商场现代化[J],2008,(1)：156-157
[13]陈成,薛恒新,张庆民.基于可靠性的供应链冗余设计及成员重要度分析.技术经济[J],2009,28(3)：113-117
[14]辛士波,李元生,李梅.基于双侧截尾正态分布的过程能力指数.统计与决策[J],2008(5)：38-39
[15]赵瑞学,钱林方,陈龙淼,石海军.基于双侧截尾正态分布的机构运动可靠度研究[J],2011(2)：248-251
[16]王建,张文杰.供应链系统可靠性分析.中国安全科学学报[J],2003,(11)：73-75
[17]张旭梅.基于马尔科夫过程的配送服务可靠性评价.工业工程[J],2006,(5)：11-14
[18]郭雪松,孙林岩,徐晨.一类基于随机着色Petri网的多级供应链可靠性模型研究.运筹与管理[J],2006,15(6)：66-70
[19]So Young Sohn, In Su Choi. Fuzzy QFD for Supply Chain Management With Reliability Consideration. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2001,72:327-334
[20]Thomas, Marlin U. Supply Chain Reliability for Contingency Operations. Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, The International Symposium on Product Quality and Integrity,2002:61-67
[21]Dave Luton. Inventory Accuracy: An Overlooked Component of Supply Chain Reliability. Materials Management and Distribution,2004,49(7):71-73
[22]Inneke Van Nieuwenhuyse, Nico Vandaele. The impact of delivery lot splitting on delivery reliabilityin a two-stage supply chain Int. J. Production Economics 104 (2006) 694-708
[23]Jelloulio, Chatelet E. Monte Carlo Simulation and Genetic Algorithms for Optimizing Supply Chain Management in a Stochastic Environment. IEEE International Conference,2001,(3):1 835-1 839
[24]Lawrence V. Snyder. Supply Chain Robustness and Reliability:Models and Algorithms. Northwestern University,2003:80-86
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