自由现金流量预测和分析问题的研究
摘要
在商品经济环境中，自主经营的企业可以视为一个具有生命特征的循环体，维持这个循环体运行的“血液”是现金。企业拥有充足并且流转通畅的“血液”才能生存和发展。现金流量状况的好坏取决于现金流量管理水平的高低。有关现金流量管理的研究也逐渐开展起来。主要的国内外研究成果集中于以下几方面：(1)现金流量管理环境；(2)现金流量分析指标在财务分析评价中的应用；(3)现金流量报告等。随着我国市场经济的不断发展，我国企业开始重视现金流量管理以改善自身现金流量状况。但我国企业的现金流量状况仍不容乐观，在现金流量管理方面仍存在着现金流量管理目标不明确，现金流量管理理论与实践相脱节等问题。明确现金流量管理目标的关键在于对现金流量指标的选择。本文认为引入自由现金流量概念将有助于上述问题的解决。可以将现金流量管理目标细化为自由现金流量最大，因为自由现金流量是指经营活动现金流量扣除资本性支出后的余额，这部分现金流量即使被全部使用也不会影响到企业的发展，可以衡量企业经营业绩和未来实力。同时自由现金流量的构成要素可对企业的各个层次和结构进行具体的权责划分，操作性较强，是现金流量管理理论和实践衔接的纽带。本文收集了大量资料，在深入理解理论的基础上，提出自由现金流量的预测与分析是其应用的主要内容。本文将对此进行探讨。本文将自由现金流量的预测分为两类，一类是自由现金流量的详细预测，为探讨重点；另一类为自由现金流量的趋势预测。在详细预测中主要研究的内容是提出在预测经营活动现金流入量时要考虑预测的不确定性，使用概率技术。本文将自由现金流量分析分为详细分析和纵向分析，主要是对详细分析方法进行了论述，将自由现金流量的构成要素的变动情况包括经营活动现金流量和资本性支出都分别进行分析，找出影响自由现金流量增长的原因。
An enterprise can be considered as a circle sustained by cash. Cash flows are inflows and outflows of cash and cash equivalents of an enterprise. With good and enough cash flows, the enterprise can keep alive and develop. The status of cash flow is decided by the degree of management. The theory of cash flow management includes management environment, ratio of cash flow and cash flow statement. Now, the status of cash flow is not very good in some enterprises in china. The objective of cash flow management is uncertain, which stops the development of cash flow management. To choose free cash flows max as the objective is a good way to solve the problem. What cash flows from operating activities minus capitalized expense is free cash flow. There is no any effect on the development of the enterprise if the cash flows are totally used. Therefore, free cash flow is very important for an enterprise to measure the achievement of management. The thesis proposes that the prediction and analysis of free cash flow are
the main contents about free cash flow in use. It's also the key point of the article. The thesis classified the forecast into two categories. One is free cash flow prediction in detail, the other is tendency of forecast. Because the uncertainty of forecast must be considered, so the thesis thinks that math techniques should be applied. The thesis also classifies the analysis into two categories. One is analysis in detail, the main content of study is to analyze the changes in free cash flow, and find the reason of preventing free cash flow from increasing.
An enterprise can be considered as a circle sustained by cash. Cash flows are inflows and outflows of cash and cash equivalents of an enterprise. With good and enough cash flows, the enterprise can keep alive and develop. The status of cash flow is decided by the degree of management. The theory of cash flow management includes management environment, ratio of cash flow and cash flow statement. Now, the status of cash flow is not very good in some enterprises in china. The objective of cash flow management is uncertain, which stops the development of cash flow management. To choose free cash flows max as the objective is a good way to solve the problem. What cash flows from operating activities minus capitalized expense is free cash flow. There is no any effect on the development of the enterprise if the cash flows are totally used. Therefore, free cash flow is very important for an enterprise to measure the achievement of management. The thesis proposes that the prediction and analysis of free cash flow are
the main contents about free cash flow in use. It's also the key point of the article. The thesis classified the forecast into two categories. One is free cash flow prediction in detail, the other is tendency of forecast. Because the uncertainty of forecast must be considered, so the thesis thinks that math techniques should be applied. The thesis also classifies the analysis into two categories. One is analysis in detail, the main content of study is to analyze the changes in free cash flow, and find the reason of preventing free cash flow from increasing.
引文
[1] 阿斯瓦斯·达摩达兰著，郑振龙译．应用公司理财．北京机械工业出版社，2000
[2] 陆正飞，企业发展的财务战略．东北财经大学出版社，1999
[3] 国家统计局国有大中型企业研究课题组．国有大中型亏损企业如何走出困境．中国统计，1999
[4] 杨红玄．怎样分析自由现金流量．财会通讯，1999(9)
[5] 威廉L 萨托里斯，耐德C 希尔著，王霞译．36小时现金管理课程．上海人民出版社，1994
[6] 徐晔，方先丽，林卓英．现金管理的最佳境界．上海会计，2001(7)
[7] 国际会计准则第7号(ISA7)：现金流量表(上，下)．会计研究，1994(4)
[8] 美国财务会计准则委员会．SFASN095．中国财政经济出版社，1992
[9] 赵英杰．论现金流量管理假设．会计研究，2001(5)
[10] 杨利明．现金流量最优化：现代企业财务管理的目标．财会月刊，2001(4)
[11] 吴晓巍，张国峰．现金流量分析的现实意义及技术操作．财经问题研究，1998(12)
[12] 詹姆斯·范霍恩，郭浩，徐琳译．现代企业财务管理．经济科学出版社，1998
[13] 汤姆·科普兰，蒂姆·科勒．价值评估．中国大百科全书出版社，1998
[14] Aswath Damodaran. Investment Valuation, Tools and Techniques for Determining the value of Any Asset. John Viley and Sons, Inc, 1996
[15] J. D. Willamson Controllership. the Work of the Managerial Accountant. John Viley & Sons, Inc, 1995
[16] 赵英杰．自由现金流量之我见．四川会计，2001(4)
[17] 刘力．财务管理学．企业管理出版社，1996
[18] 汤谷良，朱蕾．自由现金流量与财务运行体系．会计研究，2002(4)
[19] 辜位清．论现金流量与收益质量．天津市财贸管理干部学院学报，2000(3)
[20] Harry I. Wolk, Miachael. G. Teamey. Accounting Theory: A Conceptual and Institutional Approach. Fourth Edition
[21] 李方悦．从营运资金变动表到现金流量表．会计研究，1995(11)
[22] 戴德明，赵英杰．浅探现金流量管理．财会月刊，2001(10)
[23] Michael C Jensen, Agency Cost of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers, American Economic Review, 1986
[24] 孟凡利，李学春．公司营运资金管理．上海财经大学出版社，1997
[25] 王惠芬．ERP系统-提高企业竞争力的利器．经济管理，2002(7)
[26] 宝钢预算管理手册
[27] 陈烈．浅谈建立以自由现金流量为目标函数绩效评体系．中国信息产业网
[28] 马克思．资本论(第1、2卷)．人民出版社，1964
[29] 王斌．现金流转说：财务经理的财务观点．会计研究，1997(5)
[30] 王庆成，王化成．西方财务管理．中国人民大学出版社，1993
[31] 朱辛华．现金流量控制的具体措施．广西会计，2002(3)
[32] 陈伯祥．现金流量的预测与控制．上海会计，1994(4)
[33] Franklin J. Plewa, Jr. George J. Friedlob. Understanding cash flow. 1999 first Edition 清华大学出版社
[34] 费忠新．企业要利润 但也应减少应收帐款增加现金净流量．四川会计，2001(1)
[35] 中华人民共和国财政部制定．企业会计准则——现金流量表．中国财政经济科学出版社，1998
[36] 陈良忠，余伦．自由现金流量的计算和应用．财会通讯，2002(7)
[37] 肯尼斯·汉克尔，尤西·李凡特著，张凯译．现金流量与证券分析．华夏出版社，2001
[38] 财政部注册会计师考试委员会．财务成本管理．中国财政经济出版社，2002
[39] 刘勘．从现金流量表看上市公司投资价值．国务院研究中心信息网
[40] 孟凡生．现会流量表分析浅探．财务与会计，2001(8)
[41] 李爽，杨莉．现金流量分析—从东南亚金融危机说起．会计研究，1998(6)
[42] Michael C Jensen. The Modern Industrial Revolution, Exit, and the Failure of Internal Control Systems. Journal of Finance, 1993(7)
[43] Shleifer Andrie. A survey of Corporate Governance. The Journal of Finance, 1997(2)
[44] Paily, Catherine M, Dalton Dan R. Board of Directors leadership and Structure: Control and performance Implications, Entrepreneurship. Theory & Practice, 1993
[45] Jonathan Chalkham. Keeping good company. New York Oxford University Press Inc. 1994
[46] David J. Collis. Corporate Strategy: Resources and the scope of the firm. The Mc Graw-Hill Company, 1997
[47] Hagaman T. Carter Financial Manager: Greater Choice for Stockholders. Management Accounting, 1992(12)
[2] 陆正飞，企业发展的财务战略．东北财经大学出版社，1999
[3] 国家统计局国有大中型企业研究课题组．国有大中型亏损企业如何走出困境．中国统计，1999
[4] 杨红玄．怎样分析自由现金流量．财会通讯，1999(9)
[5] 威廉L 萨托里斯，耐德C 希尔著，王霞译．36小时现金管理课程．上海人民出版社，1994
[6] 徐晔，方先丽，林卓英．现金管理的最佳境界．上海会计，2001(7)
[7] 国际会计准则第7号(ISA7)：现金流量表(上，下)．会计研究，1994(4)
[8] 美国财务会计准则委员会．SFASN095．中国财政经济出版社，1992
[9] 赵英杰．论现金流量管理假设．会计研究，2001(5)
[10] 杨利明．现金流量最优化：现代企业财务管理的目标．财会月刊，2001(4)
[11] 吴晓巍，张国峰．现金流量分析的现实意义及技术操作．财经问题研究，1998(12)
[12] 詹姆斯·范霍恩，郭浩，徐琳译．现代企业财务管理．经济科学出版社，1998
[13] 汤姆·科普兰，蒂姆·科勒．价值评估．中国大百科全书出版社，1998
[14] Aswath Damodaran. Investment Valuation, Tools and Techniques for Determining the value of Any Asset. John Viley and Sons, Inc, 1996
[15] J. D. Willamson Controllership. the Work of the Managerial Accountant. John Viley & Sons, Inc, 1995
[16] 赵英杰．自由现金流量之我见．四川会计，2001(4)
[17] 刘力．财务管理学．企业管理出版社，1996
[18] 汤谷良，朱蕾．自由现金流量与财务运行体系．会计研究，2002(4)
[19] 辜位清．论现金流量与收益质量．天津市财贸管理干部学院学报，2000(3)
[20] Harry I. Wolk, Miachael. G. Teamey. Accounting Theory: A Conceptual and Institutional Approach. Fourth Edition
[21] 李方悦．从营运资金变动表到现金流量表．会计研究，1995(11)
[22] 戴德明，赵英杰．浅探现金流量管理．财会月刊，2001(10)
[23] Michael C Jensen, Agency Cost of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers, American Economic Review, 1986
[24] 孟凡利，李学春．公司营运资金管理．上海财经大学出版社，1997
[25] 王惠芬．ERP系统-提高企业竞争力的利器．经济管理，2002(7)
[26] 宝钢预算管理手册
[27] 陈烈．浅谈建立以自由现金流量为目标函数绩效评体系．中国信息产业网
[28] 马克思．资本论(第1、2卷)．人民出版社，1964
[29] 王斌．现金流转说：财务经理的财务观点．会计研究，1997(5)
[30] 王庆成，王化成．西方财务管理．中国人民大学出版社，1993
[31] 朱辛华．现金流量控制的具体措施．广西会计，2002(3)
[32] 陈伯祥．现金流量的预测与控制．上海会计，1994(4)
[33] Franklin J. Plewa, Jr. George J. Friedlob. Understanding cash flow. 1999 first Edition 清华大学出版社
[34] 费忠新．企业要利润 但也应减少应收帐款增加现金净流量．四川会计，2001(1)
[35] 中华人民共和国财政部制定．企业会计准则——现金流量表．中国财政经济科学出版社，1998
[36] 陈良忠，余伦．自由现金流量的计算和应用．财会通讯，2002(7)
[37] 肯尼斯·汉克尔，尤西·李凡特著，张凯译．现金流量与证券分析．华夏出版社，2001
[38] 财政部注册会计师考试委员会．财务成本管理．中国财政经济出版社，2002
[39] 刘勘．从现金流量表看上市公司投资价值．国务院研究中心信息网
[40] 孟凡生．现会流量表分析浅探．财务与会计，2001(8)
[41] 李爽，杨莉．现金流量分析—从东南亚金融危机说起．会计研究，1998(6)
[42] Michael C Jensen. The Modern Industrial Revolution, Exit, and the Failure of Internal Control Systems. Journal of Finance, 1993(7)
[43] Shleifer Andrie. A survey of Corporate Governance. The Journal of Finance, 1997(2)
[44] Paily, Catherine M, Dalton Dan R. Board of Directors leadership and Structure: Control and performance Implications, Entrepreneurship. Theory & Practice, 1993
[45] Jonathan Chalkham. Keeping good company. New York Oxford University Press Inc. 1994
[46] David J. Collis. Corporate Strategy: Resources and the scope of the firm. The Mc Graw-Hill Company, 1997
[47] Hagaman T. Carter Financial Manager: Greater Choice for Stockholders. Management Accounting, 1992(12)