对外贸易、FDI与中国城乡居民收入变化：理论分析与实证研究
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摘要
中国城乡居民收入的变化及其影响因素是近年经济学研究领域的一个重要论题。现有研究大多聚焦于一些国内因素,诸如制度变革、要素流动以及技术溢出等等,而忽视了一个重要的变量,即对外开放,尤其是对外贸易与引进FDI等因素。对外开放等外生变量是中国近些年经济增长的重要动因之一,其对城乡居民收入及其差距的变化必然会产生一定影响。本文主旨,就在于对对外贸易和引进FDI对中国城乡居民收入变化的影响,尤其是对整体收入水平、收入差距和收入结构等变化的影响,进行从机制进而实证的考察与分析。
理论方面,本文以现有文献梳理作为铺垫,对对外开放与收入变化的机理分两个步骤做了系统性梳理:第一步考察对外贸易对收入变化的影响机制,梳理出贸易影响中国城乡居民收入变化的四大机制:要素价格机制、需求偏好机制、技术进步机制和劳动力市场弹性机制。研究认为,贸易通过这四大传导机制影响不同层次、不同需求以及不同类型居民收入的变化,从而引起收入水平、收入差距和收入结构的变动。这其中尤以要素价格机制为典型,中国以非熟练劳动密集产品出口的贸易模式会导致非熟练劳动要素价格的提高和熟练劳动力相对工资的下跌,工资不平等程度降低。第二步考察FDI影响中国居民收入变化的机理。FDI通过技术溢出机制和就业拉动作用对收入变化产生影响。而在中国,就业拉动的作用更为明显。
实证方面,本文使用1984-2006年间中国城乡收入的相关数据,对贸易、FDI与中国城乡居民收入水平、收入差距和收入结构之间的关系进行实证研究。建议分三个方面展开,分别为单位根检验、协整关系检验和协整关系的精确估计。同时还对影响收入变化的其他变量如技术水平、GDP等进行了有效控制。通过实证检验,可以得到以下三个主要结论:
首先,对外贸易和引进FDI均会对农村居民和城镇居民有着非常明显的影响,而且开放程度越高,居民收入增加的就越快。从具体的系数来看,FDI对城镇和农村居民收入的拉动作用要大于对外贸易。对外贸易和FDI都可以带来技术的溢出效应,这有利于东道国生产技术水平的提高,生产效率的增加,进而有利于居民收入水平的提高。
其次,时间序列的计量结果表明:从长期来看,对外贸易和引进FDI对农村地区和城镇地区的影响作用相反,它们对农村地区的居民收入差距有缩小的效应,而对城镇地区居民收入分化有扩大的效应。这说明开放给我国农村居民带来的非农收入有利于弥合自然禀赋差异导致的农村内部收入差距,而城镇内部技术劳动力对技术溢出的吸收效率要高于非技术劳动力。从短期来看,对外贸易和引进FDI对农村和城镇居民收入内部差距影响差异不大,对外贸易对农村和城镇内部居民收入分化有负的渐增影响,而引进FDI对农村和城镇内部居民收入分化影响的过程是先正后负。我们还利用面板数据研究了对外贸易和引进FDI对城乡之间居民收入差距的影响,通过检验变量序列的平稳性,并对变量之间是否存在协整关系做了判断和估计,检验结果显示对外贸易和引进FDI都有利于缩小城乡之间居民收入差距,这与经典的FPE和SS定理是一致的。
最后,计量检验结果显示,对外贸易对农村居民收入结构并没有表现出明显影响,而引进FDI程度越高,农村居民收入中工资性收入比例越高;对外贸易和引进FDI都会显著影响到城镇居民收入结构,不过效果相反,对外贸易会显著提高城镇居民的工资收入比例,而引进FDI却可以显著降低城镇居民工资收入比例。
综上所述,本文通过对对外贸易、引进FDI与中国城乡收入变化的考察,分析了开放条件影响我国城乡收入水平、收入差距和收入结构的机理,并在此基础上进行了相关实证检验,结果表明对外贸易、引进FDI不仅能够大幅提高我国城乡居民收入水平,而且有利于缩小城乡收入差距,对收入结构的变动具有一定影响。
It is an important issue about the Income Change and reasons of the Urban and Rural Households in China. Most of the formerly studies focused on some Endogenous factors, such as the reformation of system, the movement of factors and the spillover of technology etc. But one of the most important exogenous variables is neglected, it is openning-up, especially foreign trade and FDI. Many existing researches found that these exogenous variables are very important causes for Chinese economic growth, they will necessarily impact Chinese income levels and disparity. The main idea of this thesis is to analysis the influences of foreign trade and FDI to Chinese rural and urban household income changes, especially to the change of income levels, income disparity and income structure, by the way of mechanism and evidence.
Theoretically, based on the analysis of existing researches, the mechanism of the openning-up and Chinese urban and rural household income change is concluded. Firstly, it examines mechanisms of foreign trade and income change, concludes the four mechanisms: factor prices mechanism, demand preference mechanism, technology progress mechanism and labor market elasticity mechanism. Especially, the factor prices mechanism may be the most important channel, the trade pattern of Chinese mainly exporting unskilled labor intensive manufactures induces the decreasing of skilled labor and increasing of unskilled labor, the income inequality will fall. Secondly, it examines the channels of FDI and income change, FDI can impact Chinese income change by technical spillover mechanism and employment improvement mechanism. In China, the latter is more important.
Empirically, the paper using Chinese urban and rural household income related data of 1948-2006, analyzed the relationship among foreign trade, FDI and Chinese rural and urban household income level, income disparity and income structure by next three angles: unit root test, co integration test and the estimation of co integration. At the same time, some variables that can impact income are controlled, such as technical levels and GDP etc. according to empirical analysis, there are three conclusions:
Firstly, I find the significantly influence of international trade and FDI on the urban and rural residents' income. With more openning-up, the more amount of urban and rural income. What's more, the influence of FDI is larger than international trade, in both urban and rural regions. opening-up including international trade and FDI have technique spill-over effect, can enhance production technical level and increase residents' income, including the urban residents and rural residents. The empirical results in this paper are consistent to the rhetorical analysis.
Secondly, In the long period, the time series empirical results indicate that the influence of openness on the urban is contrary to the rural, it can decrease inequality in the rural region, but increase inequality in the urban region. But in the short period, they have not large difference of influence on the urban and rural. International trade has negative and increasing influence over the urban and rural, while FDI has positive for a short period then negative influence over the urban and rural. We also empirically test the influences of openness over inequality between the urban and rural, the cointegration results indicate both international trade and FDI can mitigate income inequality between the urban and rural. These results are according to classical FPE and SS theorems.
Thirdly, these empirical results indicate that international trade has no significant influence over the rural income structure, but has positive influence over the wage proportion in the urban income; FDI has significant positive influence over the wage proportion in the rural income, but can decrease the wage proportion in the urban total income.
In brief, this thesis analyzes the mechanism and evidence of the impact of foreign trade and FDI on Chinese rural and urban household income levels, income disparity and income structure. Conclusions show that foreign trade and FDI not only can increase Chinese rural and urban household income levels, but also can decrease the disparity between them, It also bring influence to the income structure of them.
理论方面,本文以现有文献梳理作为铺垫,对对外开放与收入变化的机理分两个步骤做了系统性梳理:第一步考察对外贸易对收入变化的影响机制,梳理出贸易影响中国城乡居民收入变化的四大机制:要素价格机制、需求偏好机制、技术进步机制和劳动力市场弹性机制。研究认为,贸易通过这四大传导机制影响不同层次、不同需求以及不同类型居民收入的变化,从而引起收入水平、收入差距和收入结构的变动。这其中尤以要素价格机制为典型,中国以非熟练劳动密集产品出口的贸易模式会导致非熟练劳动要素价格的提高和熟练劳动力相对工资的下跌,工资不平等程度降低。第二步考察FDI影响中国居民收入变化的机理。FDI通过技术溢出机制和就业拉动作用对收入变化产生影响。而在中国,就业拉动的作用更为明显。
实证方面,本文使用1984-2006年间中国城乡收入的相关数据,对贸易、FDI与中国城乡居民收入水平、收入差距和收入结构之间的关系进行实证研究。建议分三个方面展开,分别为单位根检验、协整关系检验和协整关系的精确估计。同时还对影响收入变化的其他变量如技术水平、GDP等进行了有效控制。通过实证检验,可以得到以下三个主要结论:
首先,对外贸易和引进FDI均会对农村居民和城镇居民有着非常明显的影响,而且开放程度越高,居民收入增加的就越快。从具体的系数来看,FDI对城镇和农村居民收入的拉动作用要大于对外贸易。对外贸易和FDI都可以带来技术的溢出效应,这有利于东道国生产技术水平的提高,生产效率的增加,进而有利于居民收入水平的提高。
其次,时间序列的计量结果表明:从长期来看,对外贸易和引进FDI对农村地区和城镇地区的影响作用相反,它们对农村地区的居民收入差距有缩小的效应,而对城镇地区居民收入分化有扩大的效应。这说明开放给我国农村居民带来的非农收入有利于弥合自然禀赋差异导致的农村内部收入差距,而城镇内部技术劳动力对技术溢出的吸收效率要高于非技术劳动力。从短期来看,对外贸易和引进FDI对农村和城镇居民收入内部差距影响差异不大,对外贸易对农村和城镇内部居民收入分化有负的渐增影响,而引进FDI对农村和城镇内部居民收入分化影响的过程是先正后负。我们还利用面板数据研究了对外贸易和引进FDI对城乡之间居民收入差距的影响,通过检验变量序列的平稳性,并对变量之间是否存在协整关系做了判断和估计,检验结果显示对外贸易和引进FDI都有利于缩小城乡之间居民收入差距,这与经典的FPE和SS定理是一致的。
最后,计量检验结果显示,对外贸易对农村居民收入结构并没有表现出明显影响,而引进FDI程度越高,农村居民收入中工资性收入比例越高;对外贸易和引进FDI都会显著影响到城镇居民收入结构,不过效果相反,对外贸易会显著提高城镇居民的工资收入比例,而引进FDI却可以显著降低城镇居民工资收入比例。
综上所述,本文通过对对外贸易、引进FDI与中国城乡收入变化的考察,分析了开放条件影响我国城乡收入水平、收入差距和收入结构的机理,并在此基础上进行了相关实证检验,结果表明对外贸易、引进FDI不仅能够大幅提高我国城乡居民收入水平,而且有利于缩小城乡收入差距,对收入结构的变动具有一定影响。
It is an important issue about the Income Change and reasons of the Urban and Rural Households in China. Most of the formerly studies focused on some Endogenous factors, such as the reformation of system, the movement of factors and the spillover of technology etc. But one of the most important exogenous variables is neglected, it is openning-up, especially foreign trade and FDI. Many existing researches found that these exogenous variables are very important causes for Chinese economic growth, they will necessarily impact Chinese income levels and disparity. The main idea of this thesis is to analysis the influences of foreign trade and FDI to Chinese rural and urban household income changes, especially to the change of income levels, income disparity and income structure, by the way of mechanism and evidence.
Theoretically, based on the analysis of existing researches, the mechanism of the openning-up and Chinese urban and rural household income change is concluded. Firstly, it examines mechanisms of foreign trade and income change, concludes the four mechanisms: factor prices mechanism, demand preference mechanism, technology progress mechanism and labor market elasticity mechanism. Especially, the factor prices mechanism may be the most important channel, the trade pattern of Chinese mainly exporting unskilled labor intensive manufactures induces the decreasing of skilled labor and increasing of unskilled labor, the income inequality will fall. Secondly, it examines the channels of FDI and income change, FDI can impact Chinese income change by technical spillover mechanism and employment improvement mechanism. In China, the latter is more important.
Empirically, the paper using Chinese urban and rural household income related data of 1948-2006, analyzed the relationship among foreign trade, FDI and Chinese rural and urban household income level, income disparity and income structure by next three angles: unit root test, co integration test and the estimation of co integration. At the same time, some variables that can impact income are controlled, such as technical levels and GDP etc. according to empirical analysis, there are three conclusions:
Firstly, I find the significantly influence of international trade and FDI on the urban and rural residents' income. With more openning-up, the more amount of urban and rural income. What's more, the influence of FDI is larger than international trade, in both urban and rural regions. opening-up including international trade and FDI have technique spill-over effect, can enhance production technical level and increase residents' income, including the urban residents and rural residents. The empirical results in this paper are consistent to the rhetorical analysis.
Secondly, In the long period, the time series empirical results indicate that the influence of openness on the urban is contrary to the rural, it can decrease inequality in the rural region, but increase inequality in the urban region. But in the short period, they have not large difference of influence on the urban and rural. International trade has negative and increasing influence over the urban and rural, while FDI has positive for a short period then negative influence over the urban and rural. We also empirically test the influences of openness over inequality between the urban and rural, the cointegration results indicate both international trade and FDI can mitigate income inequality between the urban and rural. These results are according to classical FPE and SS theorems.
Thirdly, these empirical results indicate that international trade has no significant influence over the rural income structure, but has positive influence over the wage proportion in the urban income; FDI has significant positive influence over the wage proportion in the rural income, but can decrease the wage proportion in the urban total income.
In brief, this thesis analyzes the mechanism and evidence of the impact of foreign trade and FDI on Chinese rural and urban household income levels, income disparity and income structure. Conclusions show that foreign trade and FDI not only can increase Chinese rural and urban household income levels, but also can decrease the disparity between them, It also bring influence to the income structure of them.
引文
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