交通行业信息化发展测评及对经济增长贡献研究
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摘要
随着社会信息化在全球范围内的快速发展,各行各业都在向信息化迈进,信息化已成为行业振兴的推动力量,成为衡量一个行业综合实力的重要因素。交通运输行业(以下简称交通行业)是现代信息技术应用最广泛的领域之一。从世界交通运输发展的一般规律看,信息技术的应用程度深刻影响着交通运输现代化进程,信息化是现代交通运输业发展的重要标志。对于我国交通行业来说,特别是在“十一五”公路水路交通运输最快速发展的时期,交通运输信息化技术迅猛发展,行业自身信息化水平日益提高,同时对经济增长的支撑作用凸显,那么此时如何科学全面的评价交通行业信息化建设及其对经济增长的贡献就成为一个迫切需要研究的问题。
本文以系统论、协同论的思想为指导,在全面系统的前提下,力求真实科学的建立交通行业信息化发展测评指标体系；以诺兰信息化发展阶段模型为基础,结合模糊评价理论、层次分析理论,对中国交通行业信息化发展水平进行了深入地研究,在综合考虑国内外信息化测评体系与方法后,提出了适合中国交通运输行业信息化发展的测评体系,解决了在我国交通行业信息化发展过程中对于信息化发展水平的测度问题,并将其应用于我国各地区、各部门的交通行业信息化建设之中,同时,以信息化有界论和外溢经济理论为指导,运用格兰杰因检验、索洛生产函数等方法检验了交通运输行业信息化发展与经济增长的因果关系,建立了交通行业信息化对经济增长的贡献率测度模型,对我国“九五”至“十一五”期间交通行业信息化建设对于经济增长的贡献率进行了实证研究,并取得了与实际相符合的结论。论文的研究弥补了国内对于交通运输行业信息化发展水平研究的空白,为交通行业信息化发展对经济增长的贡献评价提供了一种思路,同时也为其它行业或相关信息化建设所借鉴。
本文的主要研究内容体现在如下几个方面：
(1)对国内外交通运输行业信息化建设现状进行了总结,从系统的观点出发,对我国“九五”至“十二五”期间交通运输行业信息化建设进行了系统的分析。
(2)对国内外关于信息发展与经济增长、交通运输发展与经济增长的关系研究作出了深入的分析,并进行总结。
(3)对国内外关于信息化发展测评的指标体系与方法进行了系统分析与总结,并提出如何选择适合中国交通运输行业信息化发展测评指标的方法与思路。
(4)提出了中国交通运输行业信息化发展评价模型,对我国交通运输行业信息化发展现状进行了测评并给出结论。
(5)对基于索洛余值法的生产函数模型进行了研究,提出了中国交通运输行业信息化对经济增长的贡献率模型,对模型结构中输入数据进行拟合,并最终测算出“九五”至“十一五”期间中国交通运输行业信息化对经济增长的贡献率。
(6)对影响中国交通运输行业信息化对经济增长贡献率的因素进行了分析,在中国交通运输行业信息化发展水平测度及其对经济增长贡献率研究的基础上,得出影响中国交通运输行业信息化对经济增长贡献率的因素。
(7)在本文的实证研究基础上,结合对于影响中国交通运输行业信息化贡献率的因素分析,提出提高中国交通运输行业信息化发展水平,改善交通行业信息化发展对经济增长贡献率的对策建议,结合定量研究与定性分析,使得对策建议更为准确,更具有说服力。
Along with the rapid development of social informatization in the global scope, every industries is stepping into information, information has became the driving force of the revitalization of industry, became important factors of the measurement of a industry's comprehensive strength. Modern information technology is the most widely used in transportation industry. From the rules of world transportation development to see, the information technology application level affect the transportation modernization and informatization is an important symbol of the modern transportation industry development. Especially in the "eleventh five",during which the highway transportation made the most rapid development, the traffic information technology taked a rapid development, it was obviously that the informatization level of industry itself and the function of supporting economic growth highlighted, but how to evaluate the traffic industry informatization construction and its contribution to economic growth scientificly and comprehensively is the urgent needed to study.
This research based on the idea of system theory as the guidance, established the real traffic industry informatization evaluation indicators system; With fuzzy evaluation theory, the hierarchy analysis theory as the foundation, combined with Nolan informatization development phase model, has carried on a deep research of China's transportation industry informatization level of development, after the comprehensive consideration of informatization evaluation system and methods at home and abroad, puts forward China's transportation industry information development evaluation system, and solve the measure problem of informatization level in the process of the development of informationization and is applied to China's transportation industry informatization developing, at the same time, take the information bounded theory and spillover economic theory as a guide, using granger inspection theory, Thoreau function of production method to establish traffic industry informatization on the contribution of economic growth measure model, and to research the traffic industry informatization construction to economic growth during "nine five" to "twelve five ", and good results have been achieved.
At the same time for the transportation industry informatization level evaluation and its contribution to economic growth evaluation provides a train of thought, the thought also can be used for other industry or related information construction model.
The main research content is embodied in the following aspects:
(1) Summarized domestic and international transportation industry informatization construction, from the system point of view,analysed transportation industry informatization construction system during "nine five" to "twelve five"
(2) Made a deep analysis on the relationship of information development and economic growth, transportation development and economic growth.
(3) Made a system analysis and summary about the information development evaluation index system and method,put forward to how to choose suitable system and methods for China's transportation industry informatization evaluation.
(4) Put forward to China's transportation industry informatization evaluation model, evaluated China's transportation industry informatization development and give the conclusion.
(5) Based on solow residual method production function model, put forward to China's transportation industry informatization on the contribution of economic growth model, the model structure of input data fitting, and finally caculated China's transportation industry informatization on the contribution of economic growth during "nine five" to "eleven five".
(6) This research analysed the influence fators of China's transportation industry informatization on the contribution rate of economic growth, based on China's transportation industry informatization level of development and the economic growth contribution measuremenet, it is concluded that China's transportation industry informatization on the contribution rate of economic growth factors.
(7) In this research based on the empirical study, combined with the influence to China's transportation industry informatization of the contribution rate of factor analysis, this research puts forward to countermeasures and Suggestions of improving China's transportation industry informatization level of development and the traffic industry informatization development to economic growth of the contribution, combining quantitative research and qualitative analysis, make Suggestions more accurate, more convincing.
本文以系统论、协同论的思想为指导,在全面系统的前提下,力求真实科学的建立交通行业信息化发展测评指标体系；以诺兰信息化发展阶段模型为基础,结合模糊评价理论、层次分析理论,对中国交通行业信息化发展水平进行了深入地研究,在综合考虑国内外信息化测评体系与方法后,提出了适合中国交通运输行业信息化发展的测评体系,解决了在我国交通行业信息化发展过程中对于信息化发展水平的测度问题,并将其应用于我国各地区、各部门的交通行业信息化建设之中,同时,以信息化有界论和外溢经济理论为指导,运用格兰杰因检验、索洛生产函数等方法检验了交通运输行业信息化发展与经济增长的因果关系,建立了交通行业信息化对经济增长的贡献率测度模型,对我国“九五”至“十一五”期间交通行业信息化建设对于经济增长的贡献率进行了实证研究,并取得了与实际相符合的结论。论文的研究弥补了国内对于交通运输行业信息化发展水平研究的空白,为交通行业信息化发展对经济增长的贡献评价提供了一种思路,同时也为其它行业或相关信息化建设所借鉴。
本文的主要研究内容体现在如下几个方面：
(1)对国内外交通运输行业信息化建设现状进行了总结,从系统的观点出发,对我国“九五”至“十二五”期间交通运输行业信息化建设进行了系统的分析。
(2)对国内外关于信息发展与经济增长、交通运输发展与经济增长的关系研究作出了深入的分析,并进行总结。
(3)对国内外关于信息化发展测评的指标体系与方法进行了系统分析与总结,并提出如何选择适合中国交通运输行业信息化发展测评指标的方法与思路。
(4)提出了中国交通运输行业信息化发展评价模型,对我国交通运输行业信息化发展现状进行了测评并给出结论。
(5)对基于索洛余值法的生产函数模型进行了研究,提出了中国交通运输行业信息化对经济增长的贡献率模型,对模型结构中输入数据进行拟合,并最终测算出“九五”至“十一五”期间中国交通运输行业信息化对经济增长的贡献率。
(6)对影响中国交通运输行业信息化对经济增长贡献率的因素进行了分析,在中国交通运输行业信息化发展水平测度及其对经济增长贡献率研究的基础上,得出影响中国交通运输行业信息化对经济增长贡献率的因素。
(7)在本文的实证研究基础上,结合对于影响中国交通运输行业信息化贡献率的因素分析,提出提高中国交通运输行业信息化发展水平,改善交通行业信息化发展对经济增长贡献率的对策建议,结合定量研究与定性分析,使得对策建议更为准确,更具有说服力。
Along with the rapid development of social informatization in the global scope, every industries is stepping into information, information has became the driving force of the revitalization of industry, became important factors of the measurement of a industry's comprehensive strength. Modern information technology is the most widely used in transportation industry. From the rules of world transportation development to see, the information technology application level affect the transportation modernization and informatization is an important symbol of the modern transportation industry development. Especially in the "eleventh five",during which the highway transportation made the most rapid development, the traffic information technology taked a rapid development, it was obviously that the informatization level of industry itself and the function of supporting economic growth highlighted, but how to evaluate the traffic industry informatization construction and its contribution to economic growth scientificly and comprehensively is the urgent needed to study.
This research based on the idea of system theory as the guidance, established the real traffic industry informatization evaluation indicators system; With fuzzy evaluation theory, the hierarchy analysis theory as the foundation, combined with Nolan informatization development phase model, has carried on a deep research of China's transportation industry informatization level of development, after the comprehensive consideration of informatization evaluation system and methods at home and abroad, puts forward China's transportation industry information development evaluation system, and solve the measure problem of informatization level in the process of the development of informationization and is applied to China's transportation industry informatization developing, at the same time, take the information bounded theory and spillover economic theory as a guide, using granger inspection theory, Thoreau function of production method to establish traffic industry informatization on the contribution of economic growth measure model, and to research the traffic industry informatization construction to economic growth during "nine five" to "twelve five ", and good results have been achieved.
At the same time for the transportation industry informatization level evaluation and its contribution to economic growth evaluation provides a train of thought, the thought also can be used for other industry or related information construction model.
The main research content is embodied in the following aspects:
(1) Summarized domestic and international transportation industry informatization construction, from the system point of view,analysed transportation industry informatization construction system during "nine five" to "twelve five"
(2) Made a deep analysis on the relationship of information development and economic growth, transportation development and economic growth.
(3) Made a system analysis and summary about the information development evaluation index system and method,put forward to how to choose suitable system and methods for China's transportation industry informatization evaluation.
(4) Put forward to China's transportation industry informatization evaluation model, evaluated China's transportation industry informatization development and give the conclusion.
(5) Based on solow residual method production function model, put forward to China's transportation industry informatization on the contribution of economic growth model, the model structure of input data fitting, and finally caculated China's transportation industry informatization on the contribution of economic growth during "nine five" to "eleven five".
(6) This research analysed the influence fators of China's transportation industry informatization on the contribution rate of economic growth, based on China's transportation industry informatization level of development and the economic growth contribution measuremenet, it is concluded that China's transportation industry informatization on the contribution rate of economic growth factors.
(7) In this research based on the empirical study, combined with the influence to China's transportation industry informatization of the contribution rate of factor analysis, this research puts forward to countermeasures and Suggestions of improving China's transportation industry informatization level of development and the traffic industry informatization development to economic growth of the contribution, combining quantitative research and qualitative analysis, make Suggestions more accurate, more convincing.
引文
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