分析师推荐理由、分析师声誉与投资者的投资判断
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摘要
本文运用社会心理学领域的说服理论,研究证券分析师推荐理由的充分性和分析师声誉两个因素对个体投资者判断和决策的影响,并采用实验研究方法,检验了证券分析师推荐理由与声誉如何影响个体投资者的投资者判断和决策。
本文共分为六章。第一章为引言,主要内容为研究动因、研究问题,研究意义、研究框架、研究方法和研究创新；第二章为文献综述,总结了国内外目前关于证券分析师推荐理由和声誉等文献的研究结论和局限性；第三章为证券分析师推荐理由、声誉对投资者判断影响的理论分析,在相关理论分析的基础上,提出了本文的研究假设；第四章为实验设计,详细的介绍了本文自变量和因变量的操控及设计,以及实验被试的选择和实验过程；第五章为证券分析师推荐理由与声誉对投资者判断和决策影响的实验结果分析和评价；第六章为本文的研究结论及未来研究方向。
本文的主要结论：
1.理论分析表明,资本市场上的个体投资者在投资决策时,证券分析师推荐购买股票理由的充分性会影响个体投资者购买股票的投资判断和决策。证券分析师的推荐理由越充分,个体投资者感知的说服力越强,也就更容易投资；同时,证券分析师声誉影响个体投资者对推荐信息可靠性和信任度的感知,进而影响了个体投资者的判断和决策。此外,证券分析师的推荐理由对个体投资者判断和决策的影响依赖于分析师的声誉。
2.实验结果表明,证券分析师推荐理由影响了个体投资者的投资判断。与证券分析师推荐理由较弱相比,在证券分析师推荐理由较强的情况下,个体投资者对公司股票价格上涨潜力和投资吸引力的判断会更高。
3.实验结果表明,证券分析师声誉影响了个体投资者的投资判断。与证券分析师声誉一般的相比,当证券分析师声誉较高时,投资者对公司股价上涨潜力和投资吸引力的判断会更高。
4.实验结果表明,证券分析师推荐理由和声誉会共同影响投资者判断,即证券分析师声誉调节了分析师推荐理由充分性对投资者投资判断和决策的影响。证券分析师声誉较高时,投资者会更多的关注分析师推荐理由的差异,在推荐理由较强的情况下,投资者判断的股价上涨潜力和投资吸引力更高；而当证券分析师声誉一般时,推荐理由的充分性对投资者判断的股价上涨潜力和投资吸引力没有产生显著的影响。
5.实验结果表明,投资者对分析师信任度的感知部分中介了证券分析师声誉对投资者判断和决策的影响；投资者对该公司未来盈利潜力的感知部分中介了分析师信任度对未来盈利潜力判断的影响；投资者对该公司未来股价上涨潜力的感知部分中介了公司盈利潜力对投资吸引力判断的影响。
The dissertation uses psychology of persuasion theory to study the effect of analysts' recommendation reason and reputation on investor decisions, conducts an experiment and procedures to examine how analysts'recommendation reason and reputation jointly affect investors'decision.
The dissertation is composed six chapters. Chapter one gives an introduction of this dissertation, the main content comprises research Motives, problem, implications, method and innovation. Chapter two reviews the relevant literature and discusses prior research on biases in analysts' recommendation reason and reputation, along with some conclusion and limitations. Chapter three discusses the theory of analysts' recommendation and reputation, develops hypotheses based on these theory. Chapter four describe the experimental design, A detailed section represents the manipulation of independent and dependent, the choice of participant and experiment Procedure. Chapter five examines the effect of analysts'recommendation reason and reputation on investor decisions, The results and additional analysis were also given. Chapter six provides a brief conclusions and directions for future research.
The main conclusions of the dissertation are listed as follows:
1. Theoretical analysis results indicate security analysts' recommendation reason will affect individual judgments in capital market, the more adequate the analyst makes recommendation reason on stock, the more persuasive the individual investors feel,the more investors invest his money in stock. Security analysts' reputation will affect the reliability and credibility of security recommendation information and also influence individual judgments and decision, the effect of analysts'recommendation reason on investor decision depends on analysts'reputation.
2. The experimental results indicate that when security analysts'recommendation reason is strong, investors'decision including the stock's potential for price appreciation and the attractiveness of the stock as an investment will be higher than those weak recommendation reasons.
3. The experimental results indicate that security analysts'reputation affects the investor decision. When the security analysts'reputation is high, investors'decision including the company's earnings potential, the stock's potential for price appreciation and the attractiveness of the stock as an investment will be higher than those recommendation reasons is weak.
4. The experimental results indicate that analysts'recommendation reason and reputation jointly affect investors'decision; the effect of analysts'recommendation reason on investor decision is moderated by analysts'reputation. When analysts'reputation is high, investor decisions focus on the difference of analysts'recommendation reason, but when analysts' reputation is neutral, analysts'recommendation reason will not affect investor decision, investor decisions focus on the difference of analysts'reputation
5. The experimental results suggest that the effect of security analysts'reputation on investor's judgments is partially mediated through investor beliefs perceived about analyst trust. The experimental results suggest that the effect of investor beliefs perceived about analyst trust on the stock's potential for price appreciation is partially mediated through investor belief perceived on the company's earnings potential. The experimental results suggest that the effect of investor belief perceived on the company's earnings potential on investor's judgments attractiveness is partially mediated through investor belief perceived on the stock's potential for price appreciation
本文共分为六章。第一章为引言,主要内容为研究动因、研究问题,研究意义、研究框架、研究方法和研究创新；第二章为文献综述,总结了国内外目前关于证券分析师推荐理由和声誉等文献的研究结论和局限性；第三章为证券分析师推荐理由、声誉对投资者判断影响的理论分析,在相关理论分析的基础上,提出了本文的研究假设；第四章为实验设计,详细的介绍了本文自变量和因变量的操控及设计,以及实验被试的选择和实验过程；第五章为证券分析师推荐理由与声誉对投资者判断和决策影响的实验结果分析和评价；第六章为本文的研究结论及未来研究方向。
本文的主要结论：
1.理论分析表明,资本市场上的个体投资者在投资决策时,证券分析师推荐购买股票理由的充分性会影响个体投资者购买股票的投资判断和决策。证券分析师的推荐理由越充分,个体投资者感知的说服力越强,也就更容易投资；同时,证券分析师声誉影响个体投资者对推荐信息可靠性和信任度的感知,进而影响了个体投资者的判断和决策。此外,证券分析师的推荐理由对个体投资者判断和决策的影响依赖于分析师的声誉。
2.实验结果表明,证券分析师推荐理由影响了个体投资者的投资判断。与证券分析师推荐理由较弱相比,在证券分析师推荐理由较强的情况下,个体投资者对公司股票价格上涨潜力和投资吸引力的判断会更高。
3.实验结果表明,证券分析师声誉影响了个体投资者的投资判断。与证券分析师声誉一般的相比,当证券分析师声誉较高时,投资者对公司股价上涨潜力和投资吸引力的判断会更高。
4.实验结果表明,证券分析师推荐理由和声誉会共同影响投资者判断,即证券分析师声誉调节了分析师推荐理由充分性对投资者投资判断和决策的影响。证券分析师声誉较高时,投资者会更多的关注分析师推荐理由的差异,在推荐理由较强的情况下,投资者判断的股价上涨潜力和投资吸引力更高；而当证券分析师声誉一般时,推荐理由的充分性对投资者判断的股价上涨潜力和投资吸引力没有产生显著的影响。
5.实验结果表明,投资者对分析师信任度的感知部分中介了证券分析师声誉对投资者判断和决策的影响；投资者对该公司未来盈利潜力的感知部分中介了分析师信任度对未来盈利潜力判断的影响；投资者对该公司未来股价上涨潜力的感知部分中介了公司盈利潜力对投资吸引力判断的影响。
The dissertation uses psychology of persuasion theory to study the effect of analysts' recommendation reason and reputation on investor decisions, conducts an experiment and procedures to examine how analysts'recommendation reason and reputation jointly affect investors'decision.
The dissertation is composed six chapters. Chapter one gives an introduction of this dissertation, the main content comprises research Motives, problem, implications, method and innovation. Chapter two reviews the relevant literature and discusses prior research on biases in analysts' recommendation reason and reputation, along with some conclusion and limitations. Chapter three discusses the theory of analysts' recommendation and reputation, develops hypotheses based on these theory. Chapter four describe the experimental design, A detailed section represents the manipulation of independent and dependent, the choice of participant and experiment Procedure. Chapter five examines the effect of analysts'recommendation reason and reputation on investor decisions, The results and additional analysis were also given. Chapter six provides a brief conclusions and directions for future research.
The main conclusions of the dissertation are listed as follows:
1. Theoretical analysis results indicate security analysts' recommendation reason will affect individual judgments in capital market, the more adequate the analyst makes recommendation reason on stock, the more persuasive the individual investors feel,the more investors invest his money in stock. Security analysts' reputation will affect the reliability and credibility of security recommendation information and also influence individual judgments and decision, the effect of analysts'recommendation reason on investor decision depends on analysts'reputation.
2. The experimental results indicate that when security analysts'recommendation reason is strong, investors'decision including the stock's potential for price appreciation and the attractiveness of the stock as an investment will be higher than those weak recommendation reasons.
3. The experimental results indicate that security analysts'reputation affects the investor decision. When the security analysts'reputation is high, investors'decision including the company's earnings potential, the stock's potential for price appreciation and the attractiveness of the stock as an investment will be higher than those recommendation reasons is weak.
4. The experimental results indicate that analysts'recommendation reason and reputation jointly affect investors'decision; the effect of analysts'recommendation reason on investor decision is moderated by analysts'reputation. When analysts'reputation is high, investor decisions focus on the difference of analysts'recommendation reason, but when analysts' reputation is neutral, analysts'recommendation reason will not affect investor decision, investor decisions focus on the difference of analysts'reputation
5. The experimental results suggest that the effect of security analysts'reputation on investor's judgments is partially mediated through investor beliefs perceived about analyst trust. The experimental results suggest that the effect of investor beliefs perceived about analyst trust on the stock's potential for price appreciation is partially mediated through investor belief perceived on the company's earnings potential. The experimental results suggest that the effect of investor belief perceived on the company's earnings potential on investor's judgments attractiveness is partially mediated through investor belief perceived on the stock's potential for price appreciation
引文
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