基于全寿命期的房地产项目风险分析与评价
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摘要
改革开放以后,中国的经济快速发展,我国的房地产业真正成为了国民经济的支柱产业。前几年,房地产价格迅速攀升,房地产企业成为获利最高的行业之一。尽管国家采取了多种措施,抑制房价过快增长,但是收效不大。去年开始的金融危机对我国的房地产业的冲击力度非常大,房地产业潜在的风险已经显现出来。对于房地产项目而言,分析项目的风险因素,评价风险大小有着重要意义。
本文基于全寿命周期的理论,把房地产项目分为4个阶段,即前期策划阶段、设计和计划阶段、施工阶段以及租售和物业管理阶段。每一个阶段的房地产项目,有着众多的项目参与人,本文选取了房地产开发商、作为承包商的设计单位和施工单位以及物业管理公司,对他们所承担的风险进行分析与评价。
首先,对房地产项目在某一阶段中的风险做出分析,接着对该阶段的主要参与方的风险评价指标进行设计,最后选取适当的方法进行风险评价。
房地产项目前期策划阶段,房地产项目前期又分机会研究和立项两阶段。房地产项目前期,房地产开发商是主要参与人。在机会研究阶段,采用了模糊综合评判法进行评价,在立项阶段采用敏感性分析和概率分析方法进行风险评价。
房地产项目设计和计划阶段,把房地产商的风险评价分为两步,首先利用价值工程原理对设计方案进行风险评价,接着用综合评判法对设计单位选择进行风险评价。对于设计单位风险首先进行识别,之后进行指标设计。
施工阶段,开发商的风险评价主要是基于挣值法的原理建立了工期和成本的预警系统进行风险评价;施工承包商的风险评价则采用了模糊综合评价、和基于贝叶斯方法的工期和成本风险评价法。
租售和物业阶段,除了对房地产开发商的风险进行分析外,提出了一种新的多粒度语言评价信息的融合方法,对物业公司的风险进行评价。
通过风险分析和评价,使项目参与各方明确了各自的风险,以利于下一步采取相应措施正确的应对风险。只有每个房地产项目的风险明确并采取措施之后,房地产整个行业的风险才能降低。
Since reforming and opening-up to the world, the economy of China is developing very fast, real estate industry become supporting industry of national economy in China. Several years ago, price for real estate going up rapidly, which make real estate become one of the top profit business. Although government take multi steps to restrain rapid increasing of price in real estate industry, results is out of government's expectation. Global financial crisis happened last year exerts high influence on the real estate industry in China, and potential risk of real estate industry appears now. As for as real estate project is concerned, it will be very important to analyze risk factors and evaluate extent of risk.
On the basis of theory Total Life Cycle, this article describes real estate project as four phases, which is initial plotting, designing and programming, construction, sales and estate management. Every project involves a lot of participant, the article take four concerned parties as samples to analyze and value their risks, four parties are real estate developer, designer as contractor, Construction Company and property Company.
The first, the article analyze risk of real estate during any one phase, secondly, the article program risk evaluation index for main participant, at last, the article evaluate risks by proper modus.
In the phase of initial plotting, real estate developer is main participant, and in the stage of social research, to evaluate risk by Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation; in the stage of setting up project, to evaluate risk by the Sensitivity Analysis and Probability Analysis.
Designing and programming of real estate project, which evaluate risk of developerby two steps, the first step is to evaluate risk of designing proposal by the theory ofValue Engineering, the second step is to evaluate risk of designer by ComprehensiveEvaluation. The risk of designer will be identified at first, and then programming index.
In the phase of construction, the risk evaluation is on the basis of theory of Earned Value Measure and set up early warning for the construction period and cost. The risk evaluation of contractor is on the basis of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and Bayes method.
In the phase of sales and estate management, risk evaluation of the property company is on the basis of The Fusion Method on Multi-Granularity Linguistic term Sets.
By the analysis and evaluation of risk, all participants understand their own risks, which is favorable for all parties concerned to take relative measures against risks. Only after the risks of every real estate project are clear and taking correct measures, the risk of whole real estate industry can be decreased to the minimum.
本文基于全寿命周期的理论,把房地产项目分为4个阶段,即前期策划阶段、设计和计划阶段、施工阶段以及租售和物业管理阶段。每一个阶段的房地产项目,有着众多的项目参与人,本文选取了房地产开发商、作为承包商的设计单位和施工单位以及物业管理公司,对他们所承担的风险进行分析与评价。
首先,对房地产项目在某一阶段中的风险做出分析,接着对该阶段的主要参与方的风险评价指标进行设计,最后选取适当的方法进行风险评价。
房地产项目前期策划阶段,房地产项目前期又分机会研究和立项两阶段。房地产项目前期,房地产开发商是主要参与人。在机会研究阶段,采用了模糊综合评判法进行评价,在立项阶段采用敏感性分析和概率分析方法进行风险评价。
房地产项目设计和计划阶段,把房地产商的风险评价分为两步,首先利用价值工程原理对设计方案进行风险评价,接着用综合评判法对设计单位选择进行风险评价。对于设计单位风险首先进行识别,之后进行指标设计。
施工阶段,开发商的风险评价主要是基于挣值法的原理建立了工期和成本的预警系统进行风险评价;施工承包商的风险评价则采用了模糊综合评价、和基于贝叶斯方法的工期和成本风险评价法。
租售和物业阶段,除了对房地产开发商的风险进行分析外,提出了一种新的多粒度语言评价信息的融合方法,对物业公司的风险进行评价。
通过风险分析和评价,使项目参与各方明确了各自的风险,以利于下一步采取相应措施正确的应对风险。只有每个房地产项目的风险明确并采取措施之后,房地产整个行业的风险才能降低。
Since reforming and opening-up to the world, the economy of China is developing very fast, real estate industry become supporting industry of national economy in China. Several years ago, price for real estate going up rapidly, which make real estate become one of the top profit business. Although government take multi steps to restrain rapid increasing of price in real estate industry, results is out of government's expectation. Global financial crisis happened last year exerts high influence on the real estate industry in China, and potential risk of real estate industry appears now. As for as real estate project is concerned, it will be very important to analyze risk factors and evaluate extent of risk.
On the basis of theory Total Life Cycle, this article describes real estate project as four phases, which is initial plotting, designing and programming, construction, sales and estate management. Every project involves a lot of participant, the article take four concerned parties as samples to analyze and value their risks, four parties are real estate developer, designer as contractor, Construction Company and property Company.
The first, the article analyze risk of real estate during any one phase, secondly, the article program risk evaluation index for main participant, at last, the article evaluate risks by proper modus.
In the phase of initial plotting, real estate developer is main participant, and in the stage of social research, to evaluate risk by Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation; in the stage of setting up project, to evaluate risk by the Sensitivity Analysis and Probability Analysis.
Designing and programming of real estate project, which evaluate risk of developerby two steps, the first step is to evaluate risk of designing proposal by the theory ofValue Engineering, the second step is to evaluate risk of designer by ComprehensiveEvaluation. The risk of designer will be identified at first, and then programming index.
In the phase of construction, the risk evaluation is on the basis of theory of Earned Value Measure and set up early warning for the construction period and cost. The risk evaluation of contractor is on the basis of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and Bayes method.
In the phase of sales and estate management, risk evaluation of the property company is on the basis of The Fusion Method on Multi-Granularity Linguistic term Sets.
By the analysis and evaluation of risk, all participants understand their own risks, which is favorable for all parties concerned to take relative measures against risks. Only after the risks of every real estate project are clear and taking correct measures, the risk of whole real estate industry can be decreased to the minimum.
引文
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