高速铁路社会效益研究
|
摘要
摘要：
高速铁路的建设与国民经济和社会生产力之间有很强的相关性。从经济学的角度来讲,高速铁路是社会和经济发展到一定阶段的产物,和国家的整体经济实力和社会发展水平有关。
高昂的成本似乎已经成为了高速铁路不可避免的硬伤,从高速铁路面世以来就背负着这样的成本压力。根据日本和欧洲的高速铁路运营经验可知,最初兴建高速铁路所带来的财务亏损在所难免,因为高速铁路的运营维护成本极高,没有雄厚的财力支持根本无法顺利运营。但我们也应看到,经历过发展的黑暗时期后,日本和欧洲的高速铁路还是走上了盈利的道路。中国这样一个发展中国家究竟有无经济实力支撑高速铁路建设,高速铁路的成本收益如何测算以及如何定位,未来高速铁路将在何时达到正盈利水平?这些问题都可以通过本文进行探讨分析。高速铁路运营会产生相应的成本和收益,本文中也将对成本、收益这些因素与国外高速铁路运营下的成本和收益做对比,从对比中我们可以吸取到一定的借鉴点。
当我们在考虑高速铁路的高票价所带来的争议时,其实很少有人会考虑高速铁路较之于飞机和其他交通工具相比所带来的额外福利。例如,高速铁路刺激了沿线经济的发展,减少环境污染和噪声污染等。这些都是隐含在外部性收益中的,同样也是鲜少被人注意的。诸如此类的一些外部性影响往往都被大部分人忽视了如果没有考虑这些隐含因素,单纯的从财务方面看待问题,并下结论说高速铁路是亏损的,似乎也是有所偏差的。
在本文中,我们探讨高速铁路的成本收益问题,不再是简单的从财务方面出发,而是以整个社会福利水平为出发点,考察财务问题的同时也考察外部性问题,通过成本收益模型找出影响高铁成本收益的几个主要因素,并研究这几个因素是如何影响成本收益的,这样可以较为综合全面的看待高速铁路这个基础设施存在的价值。
The construction of high-speed railway has strong connection with national economy and social productive forces. Economically, high-speed railway is a product at stage of economic and society development.
High cost has became mechanical damage of high-speed railway. From the experience of Japanese and European high-speed railway, we know that at the initial period losses are inevitable. Because the maintenance cost is high. But we should see that, after the dark period, all of them have gone to the path of profitability. As a developing county, if China have the power to support the construction of high-speed railway? And how to estimate the cost and benefit of high-speed railway? And when will high-speed railway get the its profitable? All of these questions will be analyzed in this paper. At the same time, we also contrast the cost and benefit between our country's and other countries' high-speed railway. From the process, we will get some reference points.
When we consider about the dispute of high fares of high-speed railway, few people will consider about the fringe benefit brought by high-speed railway, for example, to stimulate the economy along, reduce environmental pollution and noise pollution, and so on. All of them are consist in external return, rarely being noticed ether. Some external effects such as these are often ignored by most people. If you do not consider these hidden factors, a simple look at the issue from a financial aspect and concluded that high-speed rail is a loss, seems also to be biased.
In this article, we explore the problem of costs and benefits of high-speed railway is no longer a simple departure from the financial aspects, but in the social welfare level as a starting point, more comprehensive view of existence of high-speed rail the value of this infrastructure.
高速铁路的建设与国民经济和社会生产力之间有很强的相关性。从经济学的角度来讲,高速铁路是社会和经济发展到一定阶段的产物,和国家的整体经济实力和社会发展水平有关。
高昂的成本似乎已经成为了高速铁路不可避免的硬伤,从高速铁路面世以来就背负着这样的成本压力。根据日本和欧洲的高速铁路运营经验可知,最初兴建高速铁路所带来的财务亏损在所难免,因为高速铁路的运营维护成本极高,没有雄厚的财力支持根本无法顺利运营。但我们也应看到,经历过发展的黑暗时期后,日本和欧洲的高速铁路还是走上了盈利的道路。中国这样一个发展中国家究竟有无经济实力支撑高速铁路建设,高速铁路的成本收益如何测算以及如何定位,未来高速铁路将在何时达到正盈利水平?这些问题都可以通过本文进行探讨分析。高速铁路运营会产生相应的成本和收益,本文中也将对成本、收益这些因素与国外高速铁路运营下的成本和收益做对比,从对比中我们可以吸取到一定的借鉴点。
当我们在考虑高速铁路的高票价所带来的争议时,其实很少有人会考虑高速铁路较之于飞机和其他交通工具相比所带来的额外福利。例如,高速铁路刺激了沿线经济的发展,减少环境污染和噪声污染等。这些都是隐含在外部性收益中的,同样也是鲜少被人注意的。诸如此类的一些外部性影响往往都被大部分人忽视了如果没有考虑这些隐含因素,单纯的从财务方面看待问题,并下结论说高速铁路是亏损的,似乎也是有所偏差的。
在本文中,我们探讨高速铁路的成本收益问题,不再是简单的从财务方面出发,而是以整个社会福利水平为出发点,考察财务问题的同时也考察外部性问题,通过成本收益模型找出影响高铁成本收益的几个主要因素,并研究这几个因素是如何影响成本收益的,这样可以较为综合全面的看待高速铁路这个基础设施存在的价值。
The construction of high-speed railway has strong connection with national economy and social productive forces. Economically, high-speed railway is a product at stage of economic and society development.
High cost has became mechanical damage of high-speed railway. From the experience of Japanese and European high-speed railway, we know that at the initial period losses are inevitable. Because the maintenance cost is high. But we should see that, after the dark period, all of them have gone to the path of profitability. As a developing county, if China have the power to support the construction of high-speed railway? And how to estimate the cost and benefit of high-speed railway? And when will high-speed railway get the its profitable? All of these questions will be analyzed in this paper. At the same time, we also contrast the cost and benefit between our country's and other countries' high-speed railway. From the process, we will get some reference points.
When we consider about the dispute of high fares of high-speed railway, few people will consider about the fringe benefit brought by high-speed railway, for example, to stimulate the economy along, reduce environmental pollution and noise pollution, and so on. All of them are consist in external return, rarely being noticed ether. Some external effects such as these are often ignored by most people. If you do not consider these hidden factors, a simple look at the issue from a financial aspect and concluded that high-speed rail is a loss, seems also to be biased.
In this article, we explore the problem of costs and benefits of high-speed railway is no longer a simple departure from the financial aspects, but in the social welfare level as a starting point, more comprehensive view of existence of high-speed rail the value of this infrastructure.
引文
[1]赵春雷，刘新.我国铁路旅客列车提速的历史回顾.铁道运输与经济.2008.30(4).4-5
[2]吕玉秀.三种资产评估方法的差异分析与评价.黑龙江对外经贸.2010.3(189).152-153
[3]顾海军.公共项目经济评价问题研究[学位论文].江苏南京.河海大学.2006.5-6
[4]屠蕴雯.收益法及其在资产评估中的应用.科技情报开发与经济.2009.19(3).131-133
[5]霍伊·利弗诺.张伟.经济数学.北京.人民教育出版社.2006.175-183
[6]Harilaos N.Psaraftis. Balancing the economic and environmental performance. Transportation Research Part D.2010 (15).458-462
[7]Brendan Cushing-Daniels. Welfare effects of increased train noise:A comparison of the costs and benefits of train whistle use at highway-railway crossings. Transportation Research Part.2005(10).357-364
[8]Henrik Anderssona. Noise charges in railway infrastructure:A pricing schedule based on the marginal cost principle. Transport Policy.2007(14).204-213
[9]S. Rahmani. Modeling of road-traffic noise with the use of genetic algorithm.2011(11).1008-1013
[10]Nicole Adler. High-speed rail and air transport competition:Game engineering as tool for cost-benefit analysis.Transportation Research Part B.2010 (44).812-833
[11]Paolo Mancuso. Operating costs and market organization in railway services. The case of Italy,1980-1995. Transportation Research Part B.2003 (37).43-61
[12]Guisseppi.Selecting rail grade crossing investments with a decision support system. Information Sciences.2002(144).75-90
[13]W.G.Wong.Evaluation of management strategies for the operation of high-speed railways in China. Transportation Research Part A.2002(36).277-289
[14]H.A. Nijland..Costs and benefits of noise abatement measures. Transport Policy.2003(10). 131-140
[15]Shaw-Er Wang.Cost structure and productivity growth of the Taiwan Railway. Transportation Research Part E.200642).317-339
[16]傅宗琛,李卫东.铁路运输业与国民经济其他部门投入产出关系研究.统计与咨询.2006(5).50-51
[17]汪剑鲲.全国铁路运输业静态投入产出对比分析[学位论文].北京.北京交通大学.2005.7-10
[18]高喜珍,陈通.公共投资项目评价内容研究.项目管理技术.2007(11).14-16
[19]王祎.城市道路交通环境影响评价[学位论文].武汉.武汉理工大学.2008.8-15
[20]吕正昱,季令.交通运输外部成本问题研究.同济大学学报(自然科学版).2005.33(7).932-934
[21]王娅飞,李群仁.我国交通运输业的外部成本研究.铁道运输与经济.2006.28(10).1-3
[22]吴卫平,王东,季方,蔡莹娟,窦静雅.我国运输外部成本计算分析.铁道经济研究.2009(2).12-22
[23]王多宏,吴士杰.运输外部性理论相关问题研究.生产力研究.2010(1).37-38
[24]肖旭,傅盈.中国铁路提速前后规模经济浅析.大连交通大学学报.2010.31(2).104-106
[25]杨杰,宋马林.京沪高速铁路生态现代化的思考——基于区域生态系统项日的技术经济评价模型.安徽商贸职业技术学院学报.2009.8(29).10-13
[26]干翔.城市交通与环境的相互影响——以兰州市为案例的一些分析[学位论文].兰州.兰州大学.2006.7-24
[27]曹芳萍,沈小波.国外城市道路定价的理论与实践.现代经济探讨.2010(6).88-89
[28]王宝库.中国资产评估师手册.北京.中国物价出版社.1992.167-192
[29]张欢,史峰.公路超限车辆补偿费率定价模型研究.公路交通科技.2009.26(11).147-149
[30]牛永涛,韩宝明.提高京津城际铁路平峰期列车客座利用率的对策.铁道运输与经济.2009.31(6).24-26
[31]邹德慈.“高铁时代”城市与交通规划聚焦.城市交通.2010.08(3).1
[32]郭玉华.高速铁路发展与中国铁路货运.铁道经济研究.2010(6).1-3
[33]吴强.日本高速铁路考察报告.铁道经济研究.2006(2).19-24
[34]谢贤良,世界高速铁路现状及其社会经济效益.中国铁路.2003(11).61-64
[35]安宁.德国公共交通投资项目标准化评估程序与方法.城市交通.2009.7(4).83-88
[36]铁道部经济规划研究院.篇二世界高速铁路发展趋势.铁道经济研究.2006(1).35-41
[37]Gine's de Rus.Is Investment in High Speed Rail Socially Profitable?. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy.2007.41.3-23
[38]高鸿业.西方经济学(微观部分)第四版.北京.中国人民大学出版社.2007.80-196
[39]罗伯特·S·平狄克.微观经济学(第六版).北京.中国人民大学出版社.2007.128-130
[40]胡涛.高速铁路运营商组织模式、成本效益研究[学位论文].北京.北京交通大学.2006.31-37
[41]尹冰,吕成文.高速铁路对城市发展的影响研究.铁道经济研究.2010(4).2-4
[42]游艳雯,张赢.航空收益管理对中国高铁的启示.中国科技论文在线.2010.1-2
[43]蓝伯雄,张力.高速铁路客运专线的收益管理模型.中国管理科学.2009.17(4).53-54
[44]杨忠民.中国高速铁路路网规划研究.铁道经济研究.2010(4).3-4
[45]田蕴祥.法国国家铁路公司顾客卡折扣政策研究.交通企业管理.2010.25(10).73-74
[2]吕玉秀.三种资产评估方法的差异分析与评价.黑龙江对外经贸.2010.3(189).152-153
[3]顾海军.公共项目经济评价问题研究[学位论文].江苏南京.河海大学.2006.5-6
[4]屠蕴雯.收益法及其在资产评估中的应用.科技情报开发与经济.2009.19(3).131-133
[5]霍伊·利弗诺.张伟.经济数学.北京.人民教育出版社.2006.175-183
[6]Harilaos N.Psaraftis. Balancing the economic and environmental performance. Transportation Research Part D.2010 (15).458-462
[7]Brendan Cushing-Daniels. Welfare effects of increased train noise:A comparison of the costs and benefits of train whistle use at highway-railway crossings. Transportation Research Part.2005(10).357-364
[8]Henrik Anderssona. Noise charges in railway infrastructure:A pricing schedule based on the marginal cost principle. Transport Policy.2007(14).204-213
[9]S. Rahmani. Modeling of road-traffic noise with the use of genetic algorithm.2011(11).1008-1013
[10]Nicole Adler. High-speed rail and air transport competition:Game engineering as tool for cost-benefit analysis.Transportation Research Part B.2010 (44).812-833
[11]Paolo Mancuso. Operating costs and market organization in railway services. The case of Italy,1980-1995. Transportation Research Part B.2003 (37).43-61
[12]Guisseppi.Selecting rail grade crossing investments with a decision support system. Information Sciences.2002(144).75-90
[13]W.G.Wong.Evaluation of management strategies for the operation of high-speed railways in China. Transportation Research Part A.2002(36).277-289
[14]H.A. Nijland..Costs and benefits of noise abatement measures. Transport Policy.2003(10). 131-140
[15]Shaw-Er Wang.Cost structure and productivity growth of the Taiwan Railway. Transportation Research Part E.200642).317-339
[16]傅宗琛,李卫东.铁路运输业与国民经济其他部门投入产出关系研究.统计与咨询.2006(5).50-51
[17]汪剑鲲.全国铁路运输业静态投入产出对比分析[学位论文].北京.北京交通大学.2005.7-10
[18]高喜珍,陈通.公共投资项目评价内容研究.项目管理技术.2007(11).14-16
[19]王祎.城市道路交通环境影响评价[学位论文].武汉.武汉理工大学.2008.8-15
[20]吕正昱,季令.交通运输外部成本问题研究.同济大学学报(自然科学版).2005.33(7).932-934
[21]王娅飞,李群仁.我国交通运输业的外部成本研究.铁道运输与经济.2006.28(10).1-3
[22]吴卫平,王东,季方,蔡莹娟,窦静雅.我国运输外部成本计算分析.铁道经济研究.2009(2).12-22
[23]王多宏,吴士杰.运输外部性理论相关问题研究.生产力研究.2010(1).37-38
[24]肖旭,傅盈.中国铁路提速前后规模经济浅析.大连交通大学学报.2010.31(2).104-106
[25]杨杰,宋马林.京沪高速铁路生态现代化的思考——基于区域生态系统项日的技术经济评价模型.安徽商贸职业技术学院学报.2009.8(29).10-13
[26]干翔.城市交通与环境的相互影响——以兰州市为案例的一些分析[学位论文].兰州.兰州大学.2006.7-24
[27]曹芳萍,沈小波.国外城市道路定价的理论与实践.现代经济探讨.2010(6).88-89
[28]王宝库.中国资产评估师手册.北京.中国物价出版社.1992.167-192
[29]张欢,史峰.公路超限车辆补偿费率定价模型研究.公路交通科技.2009.26(11).147-149
[30]牛永涛,韩宝明.提高京津城际铁路平峰期列车客座利用率的对策.铁道运输与经济.2009.31(6).24-26
[31]邹德慈.“高铁时代”城市与交通规划聚焦.城市交通.2010.08(3).1
[32]郭玉华.高速铁路发展与中国铁路货运.铁道经济研究.2010(6).1-3
[33]吴强.日本高速铁路考察报告.铁道经济研究.2006(2).19-24
[34]谢贤良,世界高速铁路现状及其社会经济效益.中国铁路.2003(11).61-64
[35]安宁.德国公共交通投资项目标准化评估程序与方法.城市交通.2009.7(4).83-88
[36]铁道部经济规划研究院.篇二世界高速铁路发展趋势.铁道经济研究.2006(1).35-41
[37]Gine's de Rus.Is Investment in High Speed Rail Socially Profitable?. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy.2007.41.3-23
[38]高鸿业.西方经济学(微观部分)第四版.北京.中国人民大学出版社.2007.80-196
[39]罗伯特·S·平狄克.微观经济学(第六版).北京.中国人民大学出版社.2007.128-130
[40]胡涛.高速铁路运营商组织模式、成本效益研究[学位论文].北京.北京交通大学.2006.31-37
[41]尹冰,吕成文.高速铁路对城市发展的影响研究.铁道经济研究.2010(4).2-4
[42]游艳雯,张赢.航空收益管理对中国高铁的启示.中国科技论文在线.2010.1-2
[43]蓝伯雄,张力.高速铁路客运专线的收益管理模型.中国管理科学.2009.17(4).53-54
[44]杨忠民.中国高速铁路路网规划研究.铁道经济研究.2010(4).3-4
[45]田蕴祥.法国国家铁路公司顾客卡折扣政策研究.交通企业管理.2010.25(10).73-74