中小尺度耕地生产力稳定性评价体系研究
|
摘要
粮食安全对于人类——无论古今中外始终都是不可或缺的最基本的生存条件,也是社会稳定和国家发展的基础。从粮食安全层级关系和支撑关系来看,中小尺度耕地生产力稳定地发展是粮食安全最基础的支柱,没有中小尺度耕地生产力的稳定发展,粮食安全就失去了基础,人民生存就缺少了基础保障,社会稳定和经济发展也就成了无本之木。随着中国加入WTO以及国内工业化、城镇化的快速发展和人口的刚性增加,“粮食安全”问题的尖锐性和紧迫性日益凸显。在新的历史条件和发展环境下,我们过去一直讨论的耕地粮食生产问题的内涵已经不能简单地用增长或波动二个字眼来概括。在此形势下,掌握耕地生产力的发展规律和主导因素,预知耕地生产力发展的趋势,就成为农业研究中的一个热点和重要课题。基于此,作者选择粮食安全问题众多研究之一隅,从耕地生产力的新特征——“稳定性”研究入手,以黑龙港流域粮食主产区雄县为例,在粮食安全问题的最根本层次——中小尺度上对耕地生产力稳定性的评价理论和方法进行了实证探索和研究。主要发现和研究结论如下:
(1)根据耕地生态系统功能特性,耕地生产力形成机理和发展特征,提出了中小尺度耕地生产力稳定性包括趋势性和波动性两个组分,具有县域尺度和田块尺度(包括农用地块和实验地块两种类型)两个层次的稳定性内涵。通过改进前人区域耕地生产力稳定性表达模型,建立了中小尺度耕地生产力稳定性表达模型,并以EMD、剩余法、TFP和RS等方法为依托,构建了中小尺度耕地生产力稳定性评价方法体系。
(2)明确了1949~2008年间雄县粮食总产由1个R趋势分量和4个IMF波动分量组成。其中,趋势分量R以1978、1998为界呈缓慢发展→快速增长→徘徊不前三个阶段特征发展,且其方差贡献率高达89.61%是该县粮食总产的最大贡献组成。粮食产量波动分量IMF具有明显的多时间尺度特征,分为3、7、11和30年四个尺度的周期,其对粮食总产量的方差贡献率次序为IMF2>IMF4>IMF1>IMF3,其中IMF2最大为4.43%,是这一时期粮食产量波动的重要特征。
(3)揭示出建国以来,雄县耕地生产力稳定性的发展变化以1965、1986、1991和2001年为界线经历了低位徘徊→持续发展→逐渐衰退→快速提升→缓慢恢复五个阶段的发展规律。探明了粮食单产60年间对雄县粮食总产稳定性影响度为72.71%,粮食播种面积影响度为26.10%,但后者各阶段多为负值,是降低稳定性的因素;阐明了雄县耕地生产力的稳定性呈现强弱镶嵌分布的整体空间格局,其中朱各庄镇最强,雄州镇最弱。在作物种类结构方面,各作物的稳定性程度次序为,玉米>小麦>杂粮。
(4)探明了有效灌溉面积、化肥施用量和科技进步贡献率是1978~2008年间雄县耕地生产力稳定性发展变化的主导因素。其中,趋势性主导因素分别为,化肥施用量、有效灌溉面积、科技进步贡献率、乡村劳动力、农作物受灾面积和农药使用量,其影响度依次为,57.18%、31.52%、16.43%、4.10%、-5.13%和-4.10%;波动性主导因素分别为,农业机械总动力、农药施用量、年积温、化肥施用量和年降水量,其影响度依次为,30.77%、23.08%、23.08%、15.38%和7.69%。
(5)探明了长期不同施肥下,田块尺度耕地(实验地块)生产力稳定性差异较大的发展特征。其中,NPK三元素全施处理的稳定性较高, NPK偏施处理的稳定性较差,尤其以No和Po处理最差。在过去13年当中,气象因子的综合作用致使实验各处理小麦产量稳定性下降了4%~22%,致使实验各处理(除CK和No)玉米产量稳定性下降了2%~20%。
Food security is not only the indispensable condition for human survival, but also the foundation of social stability and national development in all the times and over the world. According to the relationship of food safety grade and support, the steady development of cultivated land productivity is a most fundamental pillar in the mid-and micro-scale cultivated systems. Without its steady development, the basic guarantee for food safety and people survival would disappear; the social stability and economic development would be non-existent. In particular, with the China’s accession to the WTO and the rapid development of domestic industrialization and urbanization and the large increase of population, the problem of food security is gradually acute and urgent day by day. Furthermore, the meanings of cultivated land production which we always discussed in the past time hadn’t been recapitulated by growth or volatility in the new historical condition and developmental environment. Hence, the issue of developmental rule and dominating factors accompanied with predicting development trend of cultivated land productivity became a hot topic in agricultural research nowadays. Based on this, by using the cultivated land of Xiong County in Hebei Province as an example, the research was constructed with beginning of the new feature of land productivity—“stability”to explore and study the evaluation theories and methods for stability of cultivated land productivity in the mid-and micro-scale cultivated systems. The main findings and conclusions were as follows:
(1)According to the functional properties of cultivated land ecosystem and the formation mechanism and development characteristic of farmland productivity, the result showed that the stability of mid-and micro-scale cultivated land productivity included two components—trends and volatility. The meanings of stability could perfectly meet the two kinds of land in county scale and field scale (including the agricultural land and the experimental land). Through improvements to the earlier expression model for the stability of regional land productivity, the new expression model were constructed for mid-and micro scale farmland production. Then, the evaluation system for stability of cultivated land productivity was built on using the methods of EMD, remaining method, TFP, RS and so on.
(2)It was found that a R trend component and four IMF fluctuation components of grain production in Xiong County during 1949 ~ 2008. Particularly, the course of R trend components was divided by the year of 1978 and 1998 into three phases, i.e. slow development, rapid growth and linger. And its variance contribution reached up to 89.61%, which was the most important contribution for grain production in Xiong County during 1949 ~ 2008. Additionally, the multi-time scale characters of IMF fluctuant components were presented in the 3,7,11 and 30 years time-scales. The variance contribution for total grain output were in the order of IMF2>IMF4>IMF1>IMF3. The maximal variance contribution was 4.43% for IMF2, which was a significantly feature of grain output fluctuant in this period.
(3)The development of stability of farmland productivity has gone through the low wandering stage for the 1965 ago, sustainable development stage for the periods of 1965 -1986, gradual fall stage for the periods of 1986 -1991, fast growth stage for the periods of 1991 -2001 and slow recovery stage for the periods of 2001 to now in Xiong County since the founding of China People's Republic. The effect of grain yield on influential degree of grain output and grain sowing area is 72.71% and 26.10% among the 60 years in Xiong County, respectively. However, the latter reduced the stability of farmland productivity as its negative values during the most development stages. The strong and weak mosaic pattern for stability of farmland productivity was showed in the space structure of Xiong County. The Zhugezhuang town had the strongest stability, while the weakest stability was recorded in Xiongzhou town. Moreover, the stability degree for kinds of crop was in the order of corn >wheat>minor cereals.
(4)The result also showed that the steady development of farmland productivity was mainly determined by the effective irrigation areas, consumption of fertilizers and technological progress during 1978~2008 in Xiong County. The leading factors were consumption of fertilizers, effective irrigation areas, technological progress, rural labor, crop disaster area and pesticide consumption which covered the influential degree by 57.18%, 31.52%, 16.43%, 4.10%, -5.13% and -4.10%, respectively for trends of land productivity, while the dominant factors were total power of agricultural machinery, pesticides consumption, annual cumulative temperature, fertilizers consumption and annual precipitation which covered the influential degree by 30.77%, 23.08%, 23.08%, 15.38% and 7.69%, respectively for volatility of land productivity.
(5)The stability of cultivated land productivity was marked in different development characteristic under the long-term different fertilization in the field-scale land (experimental land). The higher stability and lower stability was observed for all NPK fertilization treatment and imbalanced NPK fertilization treatment, respectively. In particular, the worst stability was showed in N0 and P0 treatment. In the past 13 years, the decrease in stability of wheat yield by 4%~22% accompanied with decrease in stability of maize yield by 2%~ 20% (exception of CK and N0) was observed for the experimental lands because of the integrated function of meteorological factors.
(1)根据耕地生态系统功能特性,耕地生产力形成机理和发展特征,提出了中小尺度耕地生产力稳定性包括趋势性和波动性两个组分,具有县域尺度和田块尺度(包括农用地块和实验地块两种类型)两个层次的稳定性内涵。通过改进前人区域耕地生产力稳定性表达模型,建立了中小尺度耕地生产力稳定性表达模型,并以EMD、剩余法、TFP和RS等方法为依托,构建了中小尺度耕地生产力稳定性评价方法体系。
(2)明确了1949~2008年间雄县粮食总产由1个R趋势分量和4个IMF波动分量组成。其中,趋势分量R以1978、1998为界呈缓慢发展→快速增长→徘徊不前三个阶段特征发展,且其方差贡献率高达89.61%是该县粮食总产的最大贡献组成。粮食产量波动分量IMF具有明显的多时间尺度特征,分为3、7、11和30年四个尺度的周期,其对粮食总产量的方差贡献率次序为IMF2>IMF4>IMF1>IMF3,其中IMF2最大为4.43%,是这一时期粮食产量波动的重要特征。
(3)揭示出建国以来,雄县耕地生产力稳定性的发展变化以1965、1986、1991和2001年为界线经历了低位徘徊→持续发展→逐渐衰退→快速提升→缓慢恢复五个阶段的发展规律。探明了粮食单产60年间对雄县粮食总产稳定性影响度为72.71%,粮食播种面积影响度为26.10%,但后者各阶段多为负值,是降低稳定性的因素;阐明了雄县耕地生产力的稳定性呈现强弱镶嵌分布的整体空间格局,其中朱各庄镇最强,雄州镇最弱。在作物种类结构方面,各作物的稳定性程度次序为,玉米>小麦>杂粮。
(4)探明了有效灌溉面积、化肥施用量和科技进步贡献率是1978~2008年间雄县耕地生产力稳定性发展变化的主导因素。其中,趋势性主导因素分别为,化肥施用量、有效灌溉面积、科技进步贡献率、乡村劳动力、农作物受灾面积和农药使用量,其影响度依次为,57.18%、31.52%、16.43%、4.10%、-5.13%和-4.10%;波动性主导因素分别为,农业机械总动力、农药施用量、年积温、化肥施用量和年降水量,其影响度依次为,30.77%、23.08%、23.08%、15.38%和7.69%。
(5)探明了长期不同施肥下,田块尺度耕地(实验地块)生产力稳定性差异较大的发展特征。其中,NPK三元素全施处理的稳定性较高, NPK偏施处理的稳定性较差,尤其以No和Po处理最差。在过去13年当中,气象因子的综合作用致使实验各处理小麦产量稳定性下降了4%~22%,致使实验各处理(除CK和No)玉米产量稳定性下降了2%~20%。
Food security is not only the indispensable condition for human survival, but also the foundation of social stability and national development in all the times and over the world. According to the relationship of food safety grade and support, the steady development of cultivated land productivity is a most fundamental pillar in the mid-and micro-scale cultivated systems. Without its steady development, the basic guarantee for food safety and people survival would disappear; the social stability and economic development would be non-existent. In particular, with the China’s accession to the WTO and the rapid development of domestic industrialization and urbanization and the large increase of population, the problem of food security is gradually acute and urgent day by day. Furthermore, the meanings of cultivated land production which we always discussed in the past time hadn’t been recapitulated by growth or volatility in the new historical condition and developmental environment. Hence, the issue of developmental rule and dominating factors accompanied with predicting development trend of cultivated land productivity became a hot topic in agricultural research nowadays. Based on this, by using the cultivated land of Xiong County in Hebei Province as an example, the research was constructed with beginning of the new feature of land productivity—“stability”to explore and study the evaluation theories and methods for stability of cultivated land productivity in the mid-and micro-scale cultivated systems. The main findings and conclusions were as follows:
(1)According to the functional properties of cultivated land ecosystem and the formation mechanism and development characteristic of farmland productivity, the result showed that the stability of mid-and micro-scale cultivated land productivity included two components—trends and volatility. The meanings of stability could perfectly meet the two kinds of land in county scale and field scale (including the agricultural land and the experimental land). Through improvements to the earlier expression model for the stability of regional land productivity, the new expression model were constructed for mid-and micro scale farmland production. Then, the evaluation system for stability of cultivated land productivity was built on using the methods of EMD, remaining method, TFP, RS and so on.
(2)It was found that a R trend component and four IMF fluctuation components of grain production in Xiong County during 1949 ~ 2008. Particularly, the course of R trend components was divided by the year of 1978 and 1998 into three phases, i.e. slow development, rapid growth and linger. And its variance contribution reached up to 89.61%, which was the most important contribution for grain production in Xiong County during 1949 ~ 2008. Additionally, the multi-time scale characters of IMF fluctuant components were presented in the 3,7,11 and 30 years time-scales. The variance contribution for total grain output were in the order of IMF2>IMF4>IMF1>IMF3. The maximal variance contribution was 4.43% for IMF2, which was a significantly feature of grain output fluctuant in this period.
(3)The development of stability of farmland productivity has gone through the low wandering stage for the 1965 ago, sustainable development stage for the periods of 1965 -1986, gradual fall stage for the periods of 1986 -1991, fast growth stage for the periods of 1991 -2001 and slow recovery stage for the periods of 2001 to now in Xiong County since the founding of China People's Republic. The effect of grain yield on influential degree of grain output and grain sowing area is 72.71% and 26.10% among the 60 years in Xiong County, respectively. However, the latter reduced the stability of farmland productivity as its negative values during the most development stages. The strong and weak mosaic pattern for stability of farmland productivity was showed in the space structure of Xiong County. The Zhugezhuang town had the strongest stability, while the weakest stability was recorded in Xiongzhou town. Moreover, the stability degree for kinds of crop was in the order of corn >wheat>minor cereals.
(4)The result also showed that the steady development of farmland productivity was mainly determined by the effective irrigation areas, consumption of fertilizers and technological progress during 1978~2008 in Xiong County. The leading factors were consumption of fertilizers, effective irrigation areas, technological progress, rural labor, crop disaster area and pesticide consumption which covered the influential degree by 57.18%, 31.52%, 16.43%, 4.10%, -5.13% and -4.10%, respectively for trends of land productivity, while the dominant factors were total power of agricultural machinery, pesticides consumption, annual cumulative temperature, fertilizers consumption and annual precipitation which covered the influential degree by 30.77%, 23.08%, 23.08%, 15.38% and 7.69%, respectively for volatility of land productivity.
(5)The stability of cultivated land productivity was marked in different development characteristic under the long-term different fertilization in the field-scale land (experimental land). The higher stability and lower stability was observed for all NPK fertilization treatment and imbalanced NPK fertilization treatment, respectively. In particular, the worst stability was showed in N0 and P0 treatment. In the past 13 years, the decrease in stability of wheat yield by 4%~22% accompanied with decrease in stability of maize yield by 2%~ 20% (exception of CK and N0) was observed for the experimental lands because of the integrated function of meteorological factors.
引文
[1]张波.不可斋农史文集[M].西安:陕西人民出版社,1997.
[2]陈劲松,余贤.2003年中国农村经济形势分析与2004年展望[J].中国农村经济,2004,(2): 4-11.
[3]Brown L R. Who will feed China? Wake-up call for a small planet[M]. Worldwatch Institute,New York,1995.
[4] Brown L R, Halweil B. China’s water shortage could shake world food security[J]. World Watch, 1998,11(4):10-18.
[5]D·盖尔·约翰逊.世界面临着食品危机吗?[J].农村经济问题,1997(3):19-25.
[6]Paarlberg R L. Feeding China:a confident view[J]. Food Policy,1997,22(3):269-279.
[7]罗必良.中国农业可持续发展:趋势、机理及对策[M].太原:山西经济出版社,2000:92-93.
[8]刘斌,张兆刚,霍功.中国三农问题报告[M].北京:中国发展出版社,2004.
[9]樊胜根,莫塞迪塔·索姆比拉.中国未来粮食供求预测的差别[J]..中国农村观察,1997(3):17-23,35.
[10]林毅夫.必须重视粮食安全隐患[J].江苏农村经济,2008,(5):26.
[11]陈百明.论“谁来养活中国”[J].自然资源学报,1996,11(3):210-215.
[12]彭珂珊.走向21世纪5000亿公斤粮食目标与耕地资源保护之探讨[J].首都师范大学学报(自然科学版),2000,21(4):75-81.
[13]刘彦随,吴传钧.中国水土资源态势与可持续食物安全[J].自然资源报,2002,17(3):270-275.
[14]刘振伟.我国粮食安全的几个问题[J].农业经济问题,2004,(12):8-13.
[15]石少龙. 2003年粮食安全研究综述[J].农业经济问题,2004,(9):4-10.
[16]冯晓淼,于江海,梁彦庆.河北省人口耕地粮食系统动态分析预测[J].河北师范大学学报(自然科学版),2005,29(1):101-105.
[17]刘爱智.沧州市耕地生产力变化分析及其对策研究[J].安徽农业科学,2006,34(12):2897- 2898,2902.
[18]陈百明.试论土地资源的现状与发展趋势[J].自然资源学报,1993, (1):130-135.
[19]谭崇台主编.发展经济学的新发展[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,1999.
[20]速水佑次郎,Vernon W R著,郭熙保,张进铭译.农业发展的国际分析[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,1999.
[21]Tompson L M.Weather and technology in the production of soybeans in the Central United States. [J].Agronomy Journal,1970,(62):232-236.
[22]Slabbers P J, Herrendorf V Sorbello,Stapper M.Evaluation of simplified water-crop yield model[J].Agricultural Water Management,1979(2):95-129.
[23]Offutt S E , P Garcia, M Pinar.The distribution of gains from technological advance when input quality varies[J]. Agricultural Economies Association,1987,69:321-327.
[24]Giancarlo Moschini. Normal inputs and joint Production with allocatable fix Factors American[J]. Agricultural Economics Association,1989,71(4):1021-1024.
[25]Dobermann A. Factors causing field variation of direct-seeded flooded rice[J]. Geoderma, 1994, 62:125-150.
[26]Timsina J,Connor D J. Productivity and management of rice-wheat cropping systems: issues and challenges[J]. Field Crops Research, 2001, 69 (2):93-132.
[27]Tvy T J,Hooker D C. Assessment of multiple-and single-factor stress impacts one corn[J]. Field Corps Research,2002,75(2-3):123-137.
[28]Hafner S.Trends in maize, rice and wheat yields for 188 nations over the past 40 years:a prevalence of linear growth[J].Agriculture,Ecosystems & Environment, 2003,97(1-3):275-283.
[29]Chloupek O, Hrsktova P, Schweigert P. Yield and its stability,crop diversity, adaptability and response to climate change,weahter and fertilization over 75 years in the Czech Republic in comparison to some European countries[J].Field Crops Reseacrh,2004 ,85 (2-3):167-190.
[30]Samapundo S, Devlieghere F, De Meulenaer B, et al. Predictive modelling of the individual and combined effect of water activity and temperature on the radial growth of Fusarium verticilliodes and F-proliferatum on corn[J]. International Journal of Food Microbiology,2005,105 (1):35-52.
[31]Bouman B A M,Laar H H Van. Description and evaluation of the rice growth model ORYZA2000 under nitrogen-limited conditions[J].Agricultural Systems, 2006,87(3):249-273.
[32]Nicholas R L. Agriculture in China’s modern economic development[M]. London: Cambridge University Perss, 1983:190-200.
[33]Fan S G. Effect of technological change and institutional reform on production growth in Chinese agriculture[J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1991,73:266-275.
[34]Lin Y F. Rural reform and agricultural growth in China[J].American Economic Review, 1992, 82:34-51.
[35]顾焕章主编.技术进步与农业发展[J].江苏科学技术出社,1993,5(6):24-44.
[36]朱希刚.种植业生产技术进步评价和经营规模对策[J].农业技术经济,1991,11(1):17-23.
[37]顾焕章.中国农业增长的源泉与技术进步[J].农业技术经济,1991,11(l): 1-8.
[38]矫江.用饱和度方法测算粮食增产中技术进步作用的研究[J].农业经济问题,1995,22(7):19-23.
[39]王雅鹏.粮食增产靠科技科技增粮靠推广[J].中国农村经济,1996,15(5):28-32.
[40]孙全德,刘志敏,薛绍华等.河北省化肥投入与粮食产出经济分析[J].邯郸农业高等专科学校学报,1996,21(3):31-32,36.
[41]郝金良,王冬,薛新伟.天气、政策因素对我国粮食增产作用的定量分析及政策模拟[J].农业系统科学与综合研究1998,22(1):36-41.
[42]魏蔚,刘忠.河南省建国以来粮食增产因素研究[J].耕作与栽培,1999,17(2):62-64.
[43]石磊,寇宗来.土地承包制下的粮食生产函数[J].上海经济研究,1999,8(9):2-8.
[44]郭忠兴,李岳云.政策调整与粮食主产增长:对江苏的考察[J].江苏社会科学, 2001, 17(4):184-186.
[45]张越杰.中国粮食生产增长与技术进步的实证研究[D].日本京都大学大学院,2002.
[46]林秀梅,石森昌.我国粮食生产投入要素效益比较分析[J].数量经济研究,2003,3(4):134-137.
[47]杨金深,于慧丰.河北省粮食增长贡献因素分析与增效途径[J].农业科技导刊,2000,12(3):53-57.
[48]陶江,杨德刚.50年来新疆粮食增产因素的主成分分析[J].2004,27 (1):95-99.
[49]周慧秋.东北地区粮食综合生产能力研究[J].中国农业出版社,2005.
[50]张建平.山西省粮食增产影响因素的统计分析[J].农业与技术,2006,26(5):131-134.
[51]朱希刚.我国粮食生产增长分析[J].农业经济问题,1999(7):17-23.
[52]林毅夫.再论制度、技术与中国农业发展[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2003.
[53]黄季焜 .技术进步和农业生产发展的原动力—水稻生产增长力分析[J].农业技术经济,1993,9(6):21-29.
[54]黄季焜.水稻生产的投入产出分析,朱希刚,黄季馄主编:农业技术进步测定的理论方法.中国农业科技出版社,1994:242-261.
[55]黄季焜,王巧军,陈庆根.农业生产资源的合理配置研究:水稻生产投入产出分析[J].中国水稻科学,1995,20(9):39-44.
[56]黄季焜,Scott Rozelle.技术进步与粮食增长的原动力,迈向21世纪的中国粮食经济[M].北京:中国农业出版社,1998.
[57]李大样,朱兴明.水稻生产中科学因素技术进步作用评价研究[J].土壤农化通报,1996(1):39-44.
[58]张越杰.中国玉米生产的增长与技术进步计量经济分析[J].农林业问题研究,2000(3):69-73.
[59]张越杰.关于粳米生产增长过程的实证分析-以粳米主产地东北三省为对象[J].农林业问题研究,2001(3):32-38.
[60]张越杰.中国东北三省水稻生产的增长与技术进步的经济分析[J].农林业问题研究, 2002(6):l-12.
[61]张越杰.中国东北三省水稻生产发展现状与展望[J].东北亚农业与农村发展国际论坛, 2005,56-59.
[62]廖洪乐.中国南方稻区农户水稻生产函数估计[J].中国农村经济,2005,23(6):11-18.
[63]张雪梅.我国玉米生产增长因素分析[J].农业技术经济,1999,18(2):32-35.
[64]张越杰.玉米增产与技术进步.李玉等编著:玉米经济论[M].北京:科学出版社,2002:308-327.
[65]陈卫平.我国玉米全要素生产率增长及其对产出的贡献[J].经济问题,2006,24(2):40-42.
[66]孔祥智,庞晓鹏,张云华.北方地区小麦生产的投入要素及影响因素实证分析[J].中国农村观察,2004,27(4):2-7.
[67]王子军.我国小麦生产的技术进步模式研究[M].中国农业科学研究院:中国农业科学研究院,2004.
[68]吴敬学.中国小麦技术进步分析[J].研究简报,2005,19(9):1-6.
[69]黄武,王凯.中国大豆生产效率分析[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版)2004(1):18-22.
[70]张建平.山西省粮食产量及粮食作物结构变化趋势的相关分析[J].中国农学通报, 2006,22(12):516-520.
[71]杨志龙,郑颖.试论西部贫困地区农村产业结构调整中的粮食生产问题[J].兰州商学院学报,2007,23(4):23-27.
[72]崔凯.科技在农业生产函数中的演替分析[J].安徽农业科学,2003,31(6):997-999.
[73]江云,马友华,陈伟等.作物水分利用率的影响因素及其提高途径探讨[J].中国农学通报,2007, 23(9):269-273.
[74]郑家国,张鸿,姜心禄等.多熟制条件下节水抗旱农作模式的水分利用率研究[J].西南农业学报,2006,19(6):1039-1043.
[75]艾合买提·那由甫,田长彦,卡地尔托合提.渭干河灌区粮食作物低产变高产示范研究报告[J].干旱地区农业研究,2004, 22(1):81-85.
[76]刘小鹏,陈再高,何樊伍.提高科技对粮食增产效果及对粮食贡献率的建议[J].安徽农学通报,2005 ,11(2):15-16,29.
[77]Kueh Y Y. Weather cycles and agricultural instability in China[J]. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1986, 37(1):10-14.
[78]Downing T E.Climate change and vulnerable places: global food security and country studies in Zimbabwe,Kenya,Senegal and Chile[M].Environment Change Unit,University of Oxford,1992.
[79]Roger W Buckland. Implications of climatic variability for food security in the southern African development community[J]. Internet Journal for African Studies,1997(2):112-115.
[80]Stanley C Stevens. Evidence for a weather persistence effect on the corn,wheat and soybean growing season price dynamics[J].Futures Markets,1997(2):376-383.
[81]Chen C C and Chang C C. The impact of weather on crop yield distribution in Taiwan: some new evidence from panel data models and implications for crop insurance[J]. Journal of Agricultural Economics,2005 ,33:503-511.
[82]谢云,刘继东.1949-1992年我国粮食单产的气候影响分析[J].自然资源学报, 1997,12(4):317-322.
[83]刘明亮,陈百明.我国近期粮食生产的波动性及其与农业自然灾害发生状况的相关分析[J].灾害学,2000,15(4):78-85.
[84]孙芳,杨修.农业气候变化脆弱性评估研究进展[J].中国农业气象,2005,26(3):170-173.
[85]黄朝迎.河南省粮食产量波动与大旱大涝的关系[J].中国减灾,199,66(2):20-23.
[86]汪青春,张国胜,李林等.干旱气候生态因素对青海省粮食产量影响的研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,1999,17(4):50-55.
[87]景元书,申双和,赵守良.从减灾角度分析江苏省粮食产量波动[J].南京气象学院学报2000,23(3):399-403.
[88]高涛,于晓.近50年内蒙古自治区粮食产量波动影响因素分析[J].2003,17(2):60-64
[89]唐国平,李秀彬,GuentherFischer等.气候变化对中国农业生产的影响[J].地理学报, 2000,55(2):129-138.
[90]张峭.中国粮食生产波动研究[J].农业技术经济,1998(:5)34-37.
[91]孙鹤,施锡铨.制度变迁与粮食生产的长波[J].中国农村观察,2000,22(1):37-46.
[92]孙文博,张树淼.1996年粮价改革评估及未来改革设想[J].中国物价,1996,18(8):9-11.
[93]丁声俊.中国粮食流通改革论[J].农业经济问题,199819(6):3-8.
[94]蒋乃华,张雪梅.中国粮食生产稳定与波动成因的经济分析[J].农业技术经济,1998,23(6):40-44.
[95]尹成杰.关于我国粮食生产波动的思考及建议[J].农业经济问题,2003,27( 10):4-10.
[96]焦长丰,白人朴.我国选择性农业保护政策的研究[J].中国农业大学学报,1997,2(2):7-12.
[97]胡小平.宏观政策是影响中国粮食生产的决定性因素[J].经济研究参考,2002,26( 15):30-31.
[98]徐翔,孙文华.WTO背景下中国粮食生产波动分析[J].农业现代化研究,2002,23(2):113-116.
[99]吴志华,徐子恺,施国庆.南水北调对稳定粮食产量的贡献研究[J].中国水利,2003,18(6):38-41.
[100]张志强,邓蓉,王中华.中国粮食生产波动原因分析[J].新疆农垦经济,2003,31(3):11-12.
[101]Enrique R·A. An Econometric Evaluation of Stabilization Policies for the U.S. Grain Market. Western. Journal of Agricultural Economics,1979,4(1):45-48.
[102]蒋乃华.价格因素对我国粮食生产影响的实证分析[J].中国农村观察,1998,19(5):14-20.
[103]蒋乃华.我国粮食生产波动的结构特征分析[J].浙江社会科学,1998,16(4):26-30.
[104]雷钦礼.中国粮食生产的价格作用机制分析[J].统计研究,2005,23(3):24-28.
[105]刘柏文,黄新平.湖北主要农产品长期供求趋势分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),1999,16(1):52-54.
[106]王晓红.山东省粮食生产波动及其周期特征的实证分析[J].山东经济,2001,12(7):64-66.
[107]胡岳岷.中国粮食生产波动周期解析[J].江汉论坛,2001,36(6):32-34.
[108]张志强,黄漫红.中国粮食生产景气指数系统的合成指数分析[J].北京农学院学报,2002,36(7):30-34.
[109]江西省价格理论研究课题组.江西粮食生产周期波动与对策研究[J].改革探索, 2004,29(6):11-15.
[110]杨秋珍,李军.1951-1999年上海粮食产量变化特征分析阴[J].上海农业学报,1999,15(2):19-25.
[111]杨秋珍,李军.顺应气候变化走农业可持续发展之路团[J].上海农业学报1999,15(3):13-18.
[112]王吉恒,吴勇清.黑龙江省粮食生产波动性分析团[J].黑龙江八一农垦大学学报, 2001, 13 (2) :115-121.
[113]陈印军,尹昌斌.红黄壤地区粮食生产波动性分析[J].农业技术经济,1999,20(l) :36-38.
[114]邹秀清,黄贤金.国家经济政策影响鄙阳湖区粮棉产量波动的研究[J].江西农业大学学报,2003,25(3):442-445.
[115]沈善敏,宇万太,陈欣.施肥进步在粮食增产中的贡献及其地理分异[J].应用生态学报,1998,9(4):386-390.
[116]王春娟.凤翔县粮食产量波动的关联分析[J].陕西农业科学,2000,28(7):24-27.
[117]张志强.中国粮食生产系统影响因素的主成分分析[J].北京农学院学报,2001,16(1):65-68.
[118]朱再清,陈方源.湖北省粮食总产波动状况及其原因分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2003,43(2):13-16.
[119]唐鸿铃.重庆粮食增产途径分析[J].重庆工商大学学报(西部论坛),2004,41(6):62-64.
[120]吴玉鸣,李建霞.通径分析在我国粮食生产相关研究中的应用[J].广西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2003,21(3):95-99.
[121]严士清,徐敏.粮食产量与耕地面积间的动力学方法分析[J].农机化研究,2005,24(3):60-62.
[122]曾玉平.中国的粮食生产波动[J].中国统计,1997,23(19)l:25-27.
[123]邢鹤,钟甫宁.粮食单产波动与政策性农业保险制度[J].新疆大学学报(社会科学版),2004,32(l):17-20.
[124]朱再清.1978年以来湖北省粮食生产波动状况分析[J].湖北农业科学,2002,26(5):13-l6.
[125]朱再清,陈方源.单产和播种面积对湖北省粮食总产波动的影响分析[J].湖北农业科学, 2003,32(3):8-11.
[126]黄新平,刘柏文.湖北省粮食生产波动分析[Jl.统计与决策,1999,18(5):21-23.
[127]贡凤涛,康长进.江苏粮食生产波动特征分析[J].农业信息探索,1999,22(3):14-18
[128]苏绮.内蒙古乌兰察布盟农业土地利用变化对粮食稳产的影响分析[J].干旱地区农业研究, 2000,18(4):99-103.
[129]倪绍祥,陈传康.我国土地评价研究的近今进展[J].地理学报,1993,48(1):60-69.
[130]王万茂.土地定级与估价[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,1993.
[131]Dumanski J S, tewart R B. Crop production potentials for land evaluation in Canada, researchBranch[J].Agriculture Cannada,Ottawa,1983,30(6):69-71.
[132]Storie R E,An index for rating the agricultural value of soils,Calif.Agriculture Station Bull, 1993,69(9):556.
[133]Ilacob V.Agricultural compendium, elsevier scientific[M]. Amsterdam: Publishing company, 1981.
[134]Beek K J. Land evaluation for agriculture revelopment ILRL,The Netherlands[J].1978, 64 (23): 127-129.
[135]Neef E.Applied landscape research, applied geography and devopment[M].Tubingen:Intitue for Scientific Co-operation, 1984.
[136]Miklos L, Mikoisova D.Shape and size of elementary areas and micobasins evaluation[J].Land Methodes Ecology,1987,6(1):85-100.
[137]Turner M. G. Landscape Ecology: the effect of pattern on process[J]. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 1998 (20):171-197.
[138]倪绍祥.土地类型与土地评价概论(第二版)[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1999,5-12.
[139]Kinggebiel A A,Montgomery,P H. land capacity classification[M].USDA Soil Conservation Service, Agriculture Handbook,1961:210.
[140]Bibby J S, Nachney D.land use capability classification. U K:Technical Monograph No.1,Soil Survey,Harpenden, 1969.
[141]日本农林省农林水产技术会议事务局.日本土地利用分类的程序和方法[M].北京:农业出版社,1985.
[142]王建武.县域农业土地利用系统定量化分析方法研究与实践[D].中国农业大学,1998.
[143]傅伯杰.土地评价研究回顾与展望[J].自然资源,1990(3):1-7.
[144]Dumanski J.Assessing the sustainable of saskatchewan farming system[R].CLBRR Teehnieal Bulletin,1994.
[145]Scharpenseel H W. Sustainable land use in the light of resilience/elasticity to soil organic matter fluctuations.Soil Resilience and Sustainable Land Use.CAB International,1994.
[146]Stewart R B.Modeling methodology for assessing crop Production potentials in Canada. Ottawa:Reach Branch,Agriculture,1993.
[147]Brinkman R, Smyth A J.Land Evaluation for Rural Purposes[M].Publication, ILRI, The Netherlands,1973(17).
[148] FAO.A framework for land Evaluation. FAO soil bulletin 32, Rome, 1976.
[149]Moss M R. land processes and land classification[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 1985(20), 295-319.
[150]郧文聚.农用地分等及其应用研究[D].北京:中国农业大学,2006.
[151]钱海滨,薛永森,田严军.土地资源合理利用评价研究综述[J].中国土地科学,2001,15(2),14-19.
[152]朱德举,边境清,王秋兵,等.土地评价[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1996:5-8.
[153]Tirol-Padr E A, Ladha J K.Integrating rice and wheat productivity trends using the SAS mixed-procedure and meta-analysis[J].Field Crops Research,2006,95(1):75-88.
[154]Ladha J K, Dawe D, Pathak H, Padre A T,et al.How extensive are yield declines in long-term rice-wheat experiments in Asia[J].Field Crops Research,2003,81(2-3):159-180.
[155]Regmi A P,Ladha J K, Pathak H,et al.Yield and soil fertility trends in a 20-year rice-rice-wheat experiment in Nepal[J].Soil Science Society of America Journal,2002,66(3):857-867.
[156]Manna M C,Swarup A,Wanjari P H,et al.Long-term effect of fertilizer and manure application on soil organic carbon storage,soil quality and yield sustainability under sub-humid and semi-arid tropical[J].India Field Crops Research,2005,93:264–280.
[157]Sainio P P, Jauhiainen L,Laurila I P.Cereal yield trends in northern European conditions: Changes in yield potential and its realisation[J].Field Crops Research,2009,110(1):85-90.
[158]Yadav R L,Dwivedi B S,Prasad K, et al.Yield trends,and changes in soil organic-C and available NPK in a long-term rice-wheat system under integrated use of manures and fertilisers[J].Field Crops Research,2000,68(3):219-246.
[159]Lithourgidis A S,Damalas C A,Gagianas A A.Long-term yield patterns for continuous winter wheat cropping in northern Greece[J].European Journal of Agronomy,2006,25:208-214.
[160]Fan T L, Xu M G, Zhou G Y, et al.Trends in grain yields and soil organic carbon in a long-term fertilization experiment in the China Loess plateau[J].American-Eurasian Journal of Agriculture &Environ Science, 2007, 2:600-610.
[161]黄欠如,胡锋,李辉信,等.红壤性水稻土施肥的产量效应及与气候、地力的关系[J].土壤学报,2006,43(6):926-933.
[162]Singh R P, Das S K, Rao U M B, et al. Towards sustainable dryland agriculture Practices. Bulletin, CRIDA, Hyderabad, India, 1996:5-9.
[163]Chaudhury J, Mandal U K, Sharma K L,et al. Assessing Soil Quality Under Long-Term Rice-Based Cropping System[J].Communications in Soil Science and Plant Analysis,2005, 36: 1141-1161.
[164]Bhattacharyya R, Kundu S, Prakash V, et al.Sustainability under combined application of mineral and organic fertilizers in a rainfed soybean–wheat system of the Indian Himalayas[J]. European Journal of Agronomy,2008,28:33-46.
[165]Hao M D, Fan J, Wang Q J,et al.Wheat grain yield and yield stability in a long-term fertilization experiment on the Loess Plateau[J].Pedosphere,2007,17(2):257-264.
[166]林葆,林继雄,李家康,等.长期施肥的作物产量和土壤肥力变化,全国化肥试验网论文汇编[C].北京:中国农业科技出版社,1996.
[167]李文祥.长期不同施肥对塿土肥力及作物产量的影响[J].中国土壤与肥料,2007(2):23-25.
[168]刘金剑吴萍萍,周毅,等.长期不同施肥制度对红壤稻田肥料利用率的影响[J].植物营养与肥料学报2008,14(2):277-283.
[169]徐明岗,曾希柏,黄鸿翔.现代土壤学的发展趋势与研究重点[J].中国土壤与肥料,2006(6):1-7.
[170]李成亮,何园球,王艳玲.氮磷钾肥对红壤区水稻增产效应的影响[J].中国水稻科学,2007,21(2):179-184.
[171]赵其国.现代土壤学与农业持续发展[J].土壤学报,1996,33(1):1-12.
[172]马红星,刘春梅,徐义刚.长期不同施肥处理对连作玉米产量和土壤养分变化的影响[J].现代化农业,2008,15(6):23-27.
[173]Ting L F, Stewart B A,William A.Payee,etal.Long-Term Fertilizer and Water Availability Effectson Cereal Yield and Soil Chemical Properties in Northwest China[J].Soil Science Society of America Tournal,2005;69(3):842-855.
[174]Majumder B,Mandal B.Soil organic carbon pools and productivity relationships for a 34 year old rice-wheat-jute agroecosystem under different fertilizer treatments[J].Plant Soil, 2007,297:53-67.
[175]索东让,王平.长期定位施肥对土地生产力的影响[J].西北农业学报,2000,9(3):72-75.
[176]Chauhan S K,Chauhan C P S,Minhas P.S.Effect of cyclic use and blending of alkali and good quality waters on soil properties,yield and quality of potato,sunflower and Sesbania[J].Irrigable Science,2007,26:81–89.
[177]Ghosh P K,Dayal D,Mandal K G,et al.Optimization of fertilizer schedules in fallow and groundnut-based cropping systems and an assessment of system sustainability[J].Field Crops Research, 2003,80:83-98.
[178]Sharma K L, Mandal U K, Srinivas K, et al. Long-term soil management effects on crop yields and soil quality in a dryland Alfisol[J].Soil& Tillage Research,2005,83:246-259.
[179]Turner N C,Asseng S.Productivity,sustainability,and rainfall-use efficiency in Australian rainfed Mediterranean agricultural systems[J].Australian Journal of Agricultural Research, 2005, 56: 1123–1136.
[180]李红陵,王定勇,石孝均.不均衡施肥对紫色土稻麦产量的影响[J].西南农业大学学报(自然科学版),2005,27(4):487-490.
[181]Zhang W J, Xu M G, et al.Soil organic carbon,total nitrogen and grain yields under long-term fertilizations in the upland red soil of southern China[J].Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems, 2009,84:59-69.
[182]李秀英,李燕婷,赵秉强,等.褐潮土长期定位不同施肥制度土壤生产功能演化研究[J].作物学报.2006,32(5):683-689.
[183]吕粉桃,郑磊,徐明岗,等.长期施肥对灌淤土小麦产量变化的影响[J].中国土壤与肥料,2010(2),29-34.
[184]韩博平.生态系统稳定性:概念及其表征[J].华南师范大学学报,1992,(2):37.
[185]MacArthur R.Fluctuations of animal populations, and a measure of community stability[J]. Ecology, 1955,36:533-536.
[186]冯耀宗.人工生态系统稳定性概念及其指标[J].生态学杂志,2002,21(5):58-60.
[187]李新旺,门明新,王树涛等.基于过程的河北平原农田生态系统稳定性评价[J].自然资源学报, 2008, 23(3): 430-439.
[188]Klingebiel A A, Montgomery P H.Land Capability Classification. US Department of Agriculture Handbook LUCCD Proceeding of International Conference on Land Use/Cover Change Dynamics[J]. Beijing,China:Beijing Normal University, 2001.
[189]金野隆光(林齐民译).土壤配肥原理[M].福建科技出版社,1983.
[190]梁朝仪.土地评价[M].郑州:河南科学技术出版社,1992.
[191]林培.土地资源学[M].中国农业大学出版社,1996.
[192]黎孟波.土壤肥力研究进展[M].中国科技出版社,1991.
[193]http://lhfnn.com/yz/yzhz/5231.htm.
[194]李晓峰.论农业综合生产能力的构成及特征[J].河南财经学院学报,1992,(3):34-38.
[195]黄季焜 ,李宁辉.中国农业政策分析与预测模型[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2003(2):30-41.
[196]吴文良.物质循环与提高农业综合生产力[J].中国生态农业,1996.
[197]李晓燕,王宗明,张树文.农业生态系统生产力在生态系统健康中的指示性作用[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,2005,21(3):226-230.
[198]闰永路,王卫.耕地单产波动对区域生态系统变化的指示研究—以河北承德市为例.土地覆盖变化及其环境效应[M].北京:星球出版社,2002.
[199]高亮之.农业系统学基础[M].南京:江苏科学技术出版社,1993.
[200]蒋乃华.中国粮食生产与价格波动研究[M].南京农业大学,1998.
[201]Huang N E,Shen Z,Long S R.A new view of nonlinear water waves:the Hilberts spectrum[J]. Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics,1999,31:417-457.
[202]林振山,汪曙光.近四百年北半球气温变化的分析:EMD方法的应用[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(2):90-96.
[203]万仕全,封国林.基于EMD方法的观测数据信息提取与预测研究[J].气象学报,2005,8,63(4): 516-525.
[204]赵犁丰,张晓亮,宋洁.利用EMD方法和小波变化进行信号奇异性检测[J].青岛海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2003,33(5):759-763.
[205]黄长蓉.Hilbert变换及其应用[J].成都气象学院学报,1999,9(4):36-42.
[206]石祥升,林振山.华北地区早-湿转变周期的动力研究[J].热带气象学报,2001,17(4):436-442.
[207]张明阳,林振山,刘会长.我国西北地区干湿转换时间的研究[J].气象科学,2004,24(1):45-54.
[208]王梅,曲福田.基于变异率的中国50多年的耕地变化动因分析[J].资源科学,2005,27(2):39-44.
[209]梅长林,周家良.实用统计方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2002.
[210]王树涛.区域耕地生产力稳定性评价体系研究—以河北省为例[D].保定:河北农业大学,2008.
[211]曾黄麟.粗糙集理论及其应用[M].重庆:重庆大学出版社,1998.
[212]刘清.Rough集及Rough推理[M].北京:科学出版社,2001.
[213]Zheng H F, Chen L D.Classification and regression tree(CART)for analysis of soybean yield variability among fields in Northeast China:the importance of phosphorus application rates under drought conditions.Agriculture,Ecosystem s& Environment.2009,132:98–105.
[214]管卫华.中国经济增长波动的多尺度分析及其预测[D].南京:南京师范大学,2005.
[215]周四军,谢腾.云中国人口增长与粮食生产的协整研究[J].经济数学,2006,23(4):380-385.
[216]洪波,陈浩.耕地非农化对粮食生产影响研究——基于耕地质量变化角度的分析[J].江西农业学报,2007,19(4):127-129.
[217]王慧敏.对粮食稳定增长模型的设定及分析[J].农业机械化与电气化,2004,1:52-55.
[218]http://www.zgny.com.cn/TechHtml/5/9/1/91752.html.
[219]Leigh R A, Johnston A E.Long-Term Experiments in agricultural and ecological sciences·in: proceeding of a conference to celebrate the 150th anniversary of rothamsted experimental station,and Cambridge,University Press,1994:14-17.
[220]鲍士旦主编.土壤农化分析(第三版).北京:中国农业出版社,2000,39-109,116-139.
[221]Timsina J, Singh U, Badaruddin M, et al. Cultivar, nitrogen, and water effects on productivity, and nitrogen-use efficiency and balance for rice-wheat sequences of Bangladesh[J]. Field Crops Research, 2001, 72: 143-161.
[222]周学文,赵小敏,胡国瑞,等.南方丘陵地区水田土壤养分变异分析[J].江西农业大学学报,2009,31(5): 919-926.
[223]邵华,郭熙,赵小敏,等.江西省耕地地力等级评价研究[J].江西农业大学学报,2006,28(6):939-944.
[2]陈劲松,余贤.2003年中国农村经济形势分析与2004年展望[J].中国农村经济,2004,(2): 4-11.
[3]Brown L R. Who will feed China? Wake-up call for a small planet[M]. Worldwatch Institute,New York,1995.
[4] Brown L R, Halweil B. China’s water shortage could shake world food security[J]. World Watch, 1998,11(4):10-18.
[5]D·盖尔·约翰逊.世界面临着食品危机吗?[J].农村经济问题,1997(3):19-25.
[6]Paarlberg R L. Feeding China:a confident view[J]. Food Policy,1997,22(3):269-279.
[7]罗必良.中国农业可持续发展:趋势、机理及对策[M].太原:山西经济出版社,2000:92-93.
[8]刘斌,张兆刚,霍功.中国三农问题报告[M].北京:中国发展出版社,2004.
[9]樊胜根,莫塞迪塔·索姆比拉.中国未来粮食供求预测的差别[J]..中国农村观察,1997(3):17-23,35.
[10]林毅夫.必须重视粮食安全隐患[J].江苏农村经济,2008,(5):26.
[11]陈百明.论“谁来养活中国”[J].自然资源学报,1996,11(3):210-215.
[12]彭珂珊.走向21世纪5000亿公斤粮食目标与耕地资源保护之探讨[J].首都师范大学学报(自然科学版),2000,21(4):75-81.
[13]刘彦随,吴传钧.中国水土资源态势与可持续食物安全[J].自然资源报,2002,17(3):270-275.
[14]刘振伟.我国粮食安全的几个问题[J].农业经济问题,2004,(12):8-13.
[15]石少龙. 2003年粮食安全研究综述[J].农业经济问题,2004,(9):4-10.
[16]冯晓淼,于江海,梁彦庆.河北省人口耕地粮食系统动态分析预测[J].河北师范大学学报(自然科学版),2005,29(1):101-105.
[17]刘爱智.沧州市耕地生产力变化分析及其对策研究[J].安徽农业科学,2006,34(12):2897- 2898,2902.
[18]陈百明.试论土地资源的现状与发展趋势[J].自然资源学报,1993, (1):130-135.
[19]谭崇台主编.发展经济学的新发展[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,1999.
[20]速水佑次郎,Vernon W R著,郭熙保,张进铭译.农业发展的国际分析[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,1999.
[21]Tompson L M.Weather and technology in the production of soybeans in the Central United States. [J].Agronomy Journal,1970,(62):232-236.
[22]Slabbers P J, Herrendorf V Sorbello,Stapper M.Evaluation of simplified water-crop yield model[J].Agricultural Water Management,1979(2):95-129.
[23]Offutt S E , P Garcia, M Pinar.The distribution of gains from technological advance when input quality varies[J]. Agricultural Economies Association,1987,69:321-327.
[24]Giancarlo Moschini. Normal inputs and joint Production with allocatable fix Factors American[J]. Agricultural Economics Association,1989,71(4):1021-1024.
[25]Dobermann A. Factors causing field variation of direct-seeded flooded rice[J]. Geoderma, 1994, 62:125-150.
[26]Timsina J,Connor D J. Productivity and management of rice-wheat cropping systems: issues and challenges[J]. Field Crops Research, 2001, 69 (2):93-132.
[27]Tvy T J,Hooker D C. Assessment of multiple-and single-factor stress impacts one corn[J]. Field Corps Research,2002,75(2-3):123-137.
[28]Hafner S.Trends in maize, rice and wheat yields for 188 nations over the past 40 years:a prevalence of linear growth[J].Agriculture,Ecosystems & Environment, 2003,97(1-3):275-283.
[29]Chloupek O, Hrsktova P, Schweigert P. Yield and its stability,crop diversity, adaptability and response to climate change,weahter and fertilization over 75 years in the Czech Republic in comparison to some European countries[J].Field Crops Reseacrh,2004 ,85 (2-3):167-190.
[30]Samapundo S, Devlieghere F, De Meulenaer B, et al. Predictive modelling of the individual and combined effect of water activity and temperature on the radial growth of Fusarium verticilliodes and F-proliferatum on corn[J]. International Journal of Food Microbiology,2005,105 (1):35-52.
[31]Bouman B A M,Laar H H Van. Description and evaluation of the rice growth model ORYZA2000 under nitrogen-limited conditions[J].Agricultural Systems, 2006,87(3):249-273.
[32]Nicholas R L. Agriculture in China’s modern economic development[M]. London: Cambridge University Perss, 1983:190-200.
[33]Fan S G. Effect of technological change and institutional reform on production growth in Chinese agriculture[J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1991,73:266-275.
[34]Lin Y F. Rural reform and agricultural growth in China[J].American Economic Review, 1992, 82:34-51.
[35]顾焕章主编.技术进步与农业发展[J].江苏科学技术出社,1993,5(6):24-44.
[36]朱希刚.种植业生产技术进步评价和经营规模对策[J].农业技术经济,1991,11(1):17-23.
[37]顾焕章.中国农业增长的源泉与技术进步[J].农业技术经济,1991,11(l): 1-8.
[38]矫江.用饱和度方法测算粮食增产中技术进步作用的研究[J].农业经济问题,1995,22(7):19-23.
[39]王雅鹏.粮食增产靠科技科技增粮靠推广[J].中国农村经济,1996,15(5):28-32.
[40]孙全德,刘志敏,薛绍华等.河北省化肥投入与粮食产出经济分析[J].邯郸农业高等专科学校学报,1996,21(3):31-32,36.
[41]郝金良,王冬,薛新伟.天气、政策因素对我国粮食增产作用的定量分析及政策模拟[J].农业系统科学与综合研究1998,22(1):36-41.
[42]魏蔚,刘忠.河南省建国以来粮食增产因素研究[J].耕作与栽培,1999,17(2):62-64.
[43]石磊,寇宗来.土地承包制下的粮食生产函数[J].上海经济研究,1999,8(9):2-8.
[44]郭忠兴,李岳云.政策调整与粮食主产增长:对江苏的考察[J].江苏社会科学, 2001, 17(4):184-186.
[45]张越杰.中国粮食生产增长与技术进步的实证研究[D].日本京都大学大学院,2002.
[46]林秀梅,石森昌.我国粮食生产投入要素效益比较分析[J].数量经济研究,2003,3(4):134-137.
[47]杨金深,于慧丰.河北省粮食增长贡献因素分析与增效途径[J].农业科技导刊,2000,12(3):53-57.
[48]陶江,杨德刚.50年来新疆粮食增产因素的主成分分析[J].2004,27 (1):95-99.
[49]周慧秋.东北地区粮食综合生产能力研究[J].中国农业出版社,2005.
[50]张建平.山西省粮食增产影响因素的统计分析[J].农业与技术,2006,26(5):131-134.
[51]朱希刚.我国粮食生产增长分析[J].农业经济问题,1999(7):17-23.
[52]林毅夫.再论制度、技术与中国农业发展[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2003.
[53]黄季焜 .技术进步和农业生产发展的原动力—水稻生产增长力分析[J].农业技术经济,1993,9(6):21-29.
[54]黄季焜.水稻生产的投入产出分析,朱希刚,黄季馄主编:农业技术进步测定的理论方法.中国农业科技出版社,1994:242-261.
[55]黄季焜,王巧军,陈庆根.农业生产资源的合理配置研究:水稻生产投入产出分析[J].中国水稻科学,1995,20(9):39-44.
[56]黄季焜,Scott Rozelle.技术进步与粮食增长的原动力,迈向21世纪的中国粮食经济[M].北京:中国农业出版社,1998.
[57]李大样,朱兴明.水稻生产中科学因素技术进步作用评价研究[J].土壤农化通报,1996(1):39-44.
[58]张越杰.中国玉米生产的增长与技术进步计量经济分析[J].农林业问题研究,2000(3):69-73.
[59]张越杰.关于粳米生产增长过程的实证分析-以粳米主产地东北三省为对象[J].农林业问题研究,2001(3):32-38.
[60]张越杰.中国东北三省水稻生产的增长与技术进步的经济分析[J].农林业问题研究, 2002(6):l-12.
[61]张越杰.中国东北三省水稻生产发展现状与展望[J].东北亚农业与农村发展国际论坛, 2005,56-59.
[62]廖洪乐.中国南方稻区农户水稻生产函数估计[J].中国农村经济,2005,23(6):11-18.
[63]张雪梅.我国玉米生产增长因素分析[J].农业技术经济,1999,18(2):32-35.
[64]张越杰.玉米增产与技术进步.李玉等编著:玉米经济论[M].北京:科学出版社,2002:308-327.
[65]陈卫平.我国玉米全要素生产率增长及其对产出的贡献[J].经济问题,2006,24(2):40-42.
[66]孔祥智,庞晓鹏,张云华.北方地区小麦生产的投入要素及影响因素实证分析[J].中国农村观察,2004,27(4):2-7.
[67]王子军.我国小麦生产的技术进步模式研究[M].中国农业科学研究院:中国农业科学研究院,2004.
[68]吴敬学.中国小麦技术进步分析[J].研究简报,2005,19(9):1-6.
[69]黄武,王凯.中国大豆生产效率分析[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版)2004(1):18-22.
[70]张建平.山西省粮食产量及粮食作物结构变化趋势的相关分析[J].中国农学通报, 2006,22(12):516-520.
[71]杨志龙,郑颖.试论西部贫困地区农村产业结构调整中的粮食生产问题[J].兰州商学院学报,2007,23(4):23-27.
[72]崔凯.科技在农业生产函数中的演替分析[J].安徽农业科学,2003,31(6):997-999.
[73]江云,马友华,陈伟等.作物水分利用率的影响因素及其提高途径探讨[J].中国农学通报,2007, 23(9):269-273.
[74]郑家国,张鸿,姜心禄等.多熟制条件下节水抗旱农作模式的水分利用率研究[J].西南农业学报,2006,19(6):1039-1043.
[75]艾合买提·那由甫,田长彦,卡地尔托合提.渭干河灌区粮食作物低产变高产示范研究报告[J].干旱地区农业研究,2004, 22(1):81-85.
[76]刘小鹏,陈再高,何樊伍.提高科技对粮食增产效果及对粮食贡献率的建议[J].安徽农学通报,2005 ,11(2):15-16,29.
[77]Kueh Y Y. Weather cycles and agricultural instability in China[J]. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1986, 37(1):10-14.
[78]Downing T E.Climate change and vulnerable places: global food security and country studies in Zimbabwe,Kenya,Senegal and Chile[M].Environment Change Unit,University of Oxford,1992.
[79]Roger W Buckland. Implications of climatic variability for food security in the southern African development community[J]. Internet Journal for African Studies,1997(2):112-115.
[80]Stanley C Stevens. Evidence for a weather persistence effect on the corn,wheat and soybean growing season price dynamics[J].Futures Markets,1997(2):376-383.
[81]Chen C C and Chang C C. The impact of weather on crop yield distribution in Taiwan: some new evidence from panel data models and implications for crop insurance[J]. Journal of Agricultural Economics,2005 ,33:503-511.
[82]谢云,刘继东.1949-1992年我国粮食单产的气候影响分析[J].自然资源学报, 1997,12(4):317-322.
[83]刘明亮,陈百明.我国近期粮食生产的波动性及其与农业自然灾害发生状况的相关分析[J].灾害学,2000,15(4):78-85.
[84]孙芳,杨修.农业气候变化脆弱性评估研究进展[J].中国农业气象,2005,26(3):170-173.
[85]黄朝迎.河南省粮食产量波动与大旱大涝的关系[J].中国减灾,199,66(2):20-23.
[86]汪青春,张国胜,李林等.干旱气候生态因素对青海省粮食产量影响的研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,1999,17(4):50-55.
[87]景元书,申双和,赵守良.从减灾角度分析江苏省粮食产量波动[J].南京气象学院学报2000,23(3):399-403.
[88]高涛,于晓.近50年内蒙古自治区粮食产量波动影响因素分析[J].2003,17(2):60-64
[89]唐国平,李秀彬,GuentherFischer等.气候变化对中国农业生产的影响[J].地理学报, 2000,55(2):129-138.
[90]张峭.中国粮食生产波动研究[J].农业技术经济,1998(:5)34-37.
[91]孙鹤,施锡铨.制度变迁与粮食生产的长波[J].中国农村观察,2000,22(1):37-46.
[92]孙文博,张树淼.1996年粮价改革评估及未来改革设想[J].中国物价,1996,18(8):9-11.
[93]丁声俊.中国粮食流通改革论[J].农业经济问题,199819(6):3-8.
[94]蒋乃华,张雪梅.中国粮食生产稳定与波动成因的经济分析[J].农业技术经济,1998,23(6):40-44.
[95]尹成杰.关于我国粮食生产波动的思考及建议[J].农业经济问题,2003,27( 10):4-10.
[96]焦长丰,白人朴.我国选择性农业保护政策的研究[J].中国农业大学学报,1997,2(2):7-12.
[97]胡小平.宏观政策是影响中国粮食生产的决定性因素[J].经济研究参考,2002,26( 15):30-31.
[98]徐翔,孙文华.WTO背景下中国粮食生产波动分析[J].农业现代化研究,2002,23(2):113-116.
[99]吴志华,徐子恺,施国庆.南水北调对稳定粮食产量的贡献研究[J].中国水利,2003,18(6):38-41.
[100]张志强,邓蓉,王中华.中国粮食生产波动原因分析[J].新疆农垦经济,2003,31(3):11-12.
[101]Enrique R·A. An Econometric Evaluation of Stabilization Policies for the U.S. Grain Market. Western. Journal of Agricultural Economics,1979,4(1):45-48.
[102]蒋乃华.价格因素对我国粮食生产影响的实证分析[J].中国农村观察,1998,19(5):14-20.
[103]蒋乃华.我国粮食生产波动的结构特征分析[J].浙江社会科学,1998,16(4):26-30.
[104]雷钦礼.中国粮食生产的价格作用机制分析[J].统计研究,2005,23(3):24-28.
[105]刘柏文,黄新平.湖北主要农产品长期供求趋势分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),1999,16(1):52-54.
[106]王晓红.山东省粮食生产波动及其周期特征的实证分析[J].山东经济,2001,12(7):64-66.
[107]胡岳岷.中国粮食生产波动周期解析[J].江汉论坛,2001,36(6):32-34.
[108]张志强,黄漫红.中国粮食生产景气指数系统的合成指数分析[J].北京农学院学报,2002,36(7):30-34.
[109]江西省价格理论研究课题组.江西粮食生产周期波动与对策研究[J].改革探索, 2004,29(6):11-15.
[110]杨秋珍,李军.1951-1999年上海粮食产量变化特征分析阴[J].上海农业学报,1999,15(2):19-25.
[111]杨秋珍,李军.顺应气候变化走农业可持续发展之路团[J].上海农业学报1999,15(3):13-18.
[112]王吉恒,吴勇清.黑龙江省粮食生产波动性分析团[J].黑龙江八一农垦大学学报, 2001, 13 (2) :115-121.
[113]陈印军,尹昌斌.红黄壤地区粮食生产波动性分析[J].农业技术经济,1999,20(l) :36-38.
[114]邹秀清,黄贤金.国家经济政策影响鄙阳湖区粮棉产量波动的研究[J].江西农业大学学报,2003,25(3):442-445.
[115]沈善敏,宇万太,陈欣.施肥进步在粮食增产中的贡献及其地理分异[J].应用生态学报,1998,9(4):386-390.
[116]王春娟.凤翔县粮食产量波动的关联分析[J].陕西农业科学,2000,28(7):24-27.
[117]张志强.中国粮食生产系统影响因素的主成分分析[J].北京农学院学报,2001,16(1):65-68.
[118]朱再清,陈方源.湖北省粮食总产波动状况及其原因分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2003,43(2):13-16.
[119]唐鸿铃.重庆粮食增产途径分析[J].重庆工商大学学报(西部论坛),2004,41(6):62-64.
[120]吴玉鸣,李建霞.通径分析在我国粮食生产相关研究中的应用[J].广西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2003,21(3):95-99.
[121]严士清,徐敏.粮食产量与耕地面积间的动力学方法分析[J].农机化研究,2005,24(3):60-62.
[122]曾玉平.中国的粮食生产波动[J].中国统计,1997,23(19)l:25-27.
[123]邢鹤,钟甫宁.粮食单产波动与政策性农业保险制度[J].新疆大学学报(社会科学版),2004,32(l):17-20.
[124]朱再清.1978年以来湖北省粮食生产波动状况分析[J].湖北农业科学,2002,26(5):13-l6.
[125]朱再清,陈方源.单产和播种面积对湖北省粮食总产波动的影响分析[J].湖北农业科学, 2003,32(3):8-11.
[126]黄新平,刘柏文.湖北省粮食生产波动分析[Jl.统计与决策,1999,18(5):21-23.
[127]贡凤涛,康长进.江苏粮食生产波动特征分析[J].农业信息探索,1999,22(3):14-18
[128]苏绮.内蒙古乌兰察布盟农业土地利用变化对粮食稳产的影响分析[J].干旱地区农业研究, 2000,18(4):99-103.
[129]倪绍祥,陈传康.我国土地评价研究的近今进展[J].地理学报,1993,48(1):60-69.
[130]王万茂.土地定级与估价[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,1993.
[131]Dumanski J S, tewart R B. Crop production potentials for land evaluation in Canada, researchBranch[J].Agriculture Cannada,Ottawa,1983,30(6):69-71.
[132]Storie R E,An index for rating the agricultural value of soils,Calif.Agriculture Station Bull, 1993,69(9):556.
[133]Ilacob V.Agricultural compendium, elsevier scientific[M]. Amsterdam: Publishing company, 1981.
[134]Beek K J. Land evaluation for agriculture revelopment ILRL,The Netherlands[J].1978, 64 (23): 127-129.
[135]Neef E.Applied landscape research, applied geography and devopment[M].Tubingen:Intitue for Scientific Co-operation, 1984.
[136]Miklos L, Mikoisova D.Shape and size of elementary areas and micobasins evaluation[J].Land Methodes Ecology,1987,6(1):85-100.
[137]Turner M. G. Landscape Ecology: the effect of pattern on process[J]. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 1998 (20):171-197.
[138]倪绍祥.土地类型与土地评价概论(第二版)[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1999,5-12.
[139]Kinggebiel A A,Montgomery,P H. land capacity classification[M].USDA Soil Conservation Service, Agriculture Handbook,1961:210.
[140]Bibby J S, Nachney D.land use capability classification. U K:Technical Monograph No.1,Soil Survey,Harpenden, 1969.
[141]日本农林省农林水产技术会议事务局.日本土地利用分类的程序和方法[M].北京:农业出版社,1985.
[142]王建武.县域农业土地利用系统定量化分析方法研究与实践[D].中国农业大学,1998.
[143]傅伯杰.土地评价研究回顾与展望[J].自然资源,1990(3):1-7.
[144]Dumanski J.Assessing the sustainable of saskatchewan farming system[R].CLBRR Teehnieal Bulletin,1994.
[145]Scharpenseel H W. Sustainable land use in the light of resilience/elasticity to soil organic matter fluctuations.Soil Resilience and Sustainable Land Use.CAB International,1994.
[146]Stewart R B.Modeling methodology for assessing crop Production potentials in Canada. Ottawa:Reach Branch,Agriculture,1993.
[147]Brinkman R, Smyth A J.Land Evaluation for Rural Purposes[M].Publication, ILRI, The Netherlands,1973(17).
[148] FAO.A framework for land Evaluation. FAO soil bulletin 32, Rome, 1976.
[149]Moss M R. land processes and land classification[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 1985(20), 295-319.
[150]郧文聚.农用地分等及其应用研究[D].北京:中国农业大学,2006.
[151]钱海滨,薛永森,田严军.土地资源合理利用评价研究综述[J].中国土地科学,2001,15(2),14-19.
[152]朱德举,边境清,王秋兵,等.土地评价[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1996:5-8.
[153]Tirol-Padr E A, Ladha J K.Integrating rice and wheat productivity trends using the SAS mixed-procedure and meta-analysis[J].Field Crops Research,2006,95(1):75-88.
[154]Ladha J K, Dawe D, Pathak H, Padre A T,et al.How extensive are yield declines in long-term rice-wheat experiments in Asia[J].Field Crops Research,2003,81(2-3):159-180.
[155]Regmi A P,Ladha J K, Pathak H,et al.Yield and soil fertility trends in a 20-year rice-rice-wheat experiment in Nepal[J].Soil Science Society of America Journal,2002,66(3):857-867.
[156]Manna M C,Swarup A,Wanjari P H,et al.Long-term effect of fertilizer and manure application on soil organic carbon storage,soil quality and yield sustainability under sub-humid and semi-arid tropical[J].India Field Crops Research,2005,93:264–280.
[157]Sainio P P, Jauhiainen L,Laurila I P.Cereal yield trends in northern European conditions: Changes in yield potential and its realisation[J].Field Crops Research,2009,110(1):85-90.
[158]Yadav R L,Dwivedi B S,Prasad K, et al.Yield trends,and changes in soil organic-C and available NPK in a long-term rice-wheat system under integrated use of manures and fertilisers[J].Field Crops Research,2000,68(3):219-246.
[159]Lithourgidis A S,Damalas C A,Gagianas A A.Long-term yield patterns for continuous winter wheat cropping in northern Greece[J].European Journal of Agronomy,2006,25:208-214.
[160]Fan T L, Xu M G, Zhou G Y, et al.Trends in grain yields and soil organic carbon in a long-term fertilization experiment in the China Loess plateau[J].American-Eurasian Journal of Agriculture &Environ Science, 2007, 2:600-610.
[161]黄欠如,胡锋,李辉信,等.红壤性水稻土施肥的产量效应及与气候、地力的关系[J].土壤学报,2006,43(6):926-933.
[162]Singh R P, Das S K, Rao U M B, et al. Towards sustainable dryland agriculture Practices. Bulletin, CRIDA, Hyderabad, India, 1996:5-9.
[163]Chaudhury J, Mandal U K, Sharma K L,et al. Assessing Soil Quality Under Long-Term Rice-Based Cropping System[J].Communications in Soil Science and Plant Analysis,2005, 36: 1141-1161.
[164]Bhattacharyya R, Kundu S, Prakash V, et al.Sustainability under combined application of mineral and organic fertilizers in a rainfed soybean–wheat system of the Indian Himalayas[J]. European Journal of Agronomy,2008,28:33-46.
[165]Hao M D, Fan J, Wang Q J,et al.Wheat grain yield and yield stability in a long-term fertilization experiment on the Loess Plateau[J].Pedosphere,2007,17(2):257-264.
[166]林葆,林继雄,李家康,等.长期施肥的作物产量和土壤肥力变化,全国化肥试验网论文汇编[C].北京:中国农业科技出版社,1996.
[167]李文祥.长期不同施肥对塿土肥力及作物产量的影响[J].中国土壤与肥料,2007(2):23-25.
[168]刘金剑吴萍萍,周毅,等.长期不同施肥制度对红壤稻田肥料利用率的影响[J].植物营养与肥料学报2008,14(2):277-283.
[169]徐明岗,曾希柏,黄鸿翔.现代土壤学的发展趋势与研究重点[J].中国土壤与肥料,2006(6):1-7.
[170]李成亮,何园球,王艳玲.氮磷钾肥对红壤区水稻增产效应的影响[J].中国水稻科学,2007,21(2):179-184.
[171]赵其国.现代土壤学与农业持续发展[J].土壤学报,1996,33(1):1-12.
[172]马红星,刘春梅,徐义刚.长期不同施肥处理对连作玉米产量和土壤养分变化的影响[J].现代化农业,2008,15(6):23-27.
[173]Ting L F, Stewart B A,William A.Payee,etal.Long-Term Fertilizer and Water Availability Effectson Cereal Yield and Soil Chemical Properties in Northwest China[J].Soil Science Society of America Tournal,2005;69(3):842-855.
[174]Majumder B,Mandal B.Soil organic carbon pools and productivity relationships for a 34 year old rice-wheat-jute agroecosystem under different fertilizer treatments[J].Plant Soil, 2007,297:53-67.
[175]索东让,王平.长期定位施肥对土地生产力的影响[J].西北农业学报,2000,9(3):72-75.
[176]Chauhan S K,Chauhan C P S,Minhas P.S.Effect of cyclic use and blending of alkali and good quality waters on soil properties,yield and quality of potato,sunflower and Sesbania[J].Irrigable Science,2007,26:81–89.
[177]Ghosh P K,Dayal D,Mandal K G,et al.Optimization of fertilizer schedules in fallow and groundnut-based cropping systems and an assessment of system sustainability[J].Field Crops Research, 2003,80:83-98.
[178]Sharma K L, Mandal U K, Srinivas K, et al. Long-term soil management effects on crop yields and soil quality in a dryland Alfisol[J].Soil& Tillage Research,2005,83:246-259.
[179]Turner N C,Asseng S.Productivity,sustainability,and rainfall-use efficiency in Australian rainfed Mediterranean agricultural systems[J].Australian Journal of Agricultural Research, 2005, 56: 1123–1136.
[180]李红陵,王定勇,石孝均.不均衡施肥对紫色土稻麦产量的影响[J].西南农业大学学报(自然科学版),2005,27(4):487-490.
[181]Zhang W J, Xu M G, et al.Soil organic carbon,total nitrogen and grain yields under long-term fertilizations in the upland red soil of southern China[J].Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems, 2009,84:59-69.
[182]李秀英,李燕婷,赵秉强,等.褐潮土长期定位不同施肥制度土壤生产功能演化研究[J].作物学报.2006,32(5):683-689.
[183]吕粉桃,郑磊,徐明岗,等.长期施肥对灌淤土小麦产量变化的影响[J].中国土壤与肥料,2010(2),29-34.
[184]韩博平.生态系统稳定性:概念及其表征[J].华南师范大学学报,1992,(2):37.
[185]MacArthur R.Fluctuations of animal populations, and a measure of community stability[J]. Ecology, 1955,36:533-536.
[186]冯耀宗.人工生态系统稳定性概念及其指标[J].生态学杂志,2002,21(5):58-60.
[187]李新旺,门明新,王树涛等.基于过程的河北平原农田生态系统稳定性评价[J].自然资源学报, 2008, 23(3): 430-439.
[188]Klingebiel A A, Montgomery P H.Land Capability Classification. US Department of Agriculture Handbook LUCCD Proceeding of International Conference on Land Use/Cover Change Dynamics[J]. Beijing,China:Beijing Normal University, 2001.
[189]金野隆光(林齐民译).土壤配肥原理[M].福建科技出版社,1983.
[190]梁朝仪.土地评价[M].郑州:河南科学技术出版社,1992.
[191]林培.土地资源学[M].中国农业大学出版社,1996.
[192]黎孟波.土壤肥力研究进展[M].中国科技出版社,1991.
[193]http://lhfnn.com/yz/yzhz/5231.htm.
[194]李晓峰.论农业综合生产能力的构成及特征[J].河南财经学院学报,1992,(3):34-38.
[195]黄季焜 ,李宁辉.中国农业政策分析与预测模型[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2003(2):30-41.
[196]吴文良.物质循环与提高农业综合生产力[J].中国生态农业,1996.
[197]李晓燕,王宗明,张树文.农业生态系统生产力在生态系统健康中的指示性作用[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,2005,21(3):226-230.
[198]闰永路,王卫.耕地单产波动对区域生态系统变化的指示研究—以河北承德市为例.土地覆盖变化及其环境效应[M].北京:星球出版社,2002.
[199]高亮之.农业系统学基础[M].南京:江苏科学技术出版社,1993.
[200]蒋乃华.中国粮食生产与价格波动研究[M].南京农业大学,1998.
[201]Huang N E,Shen Z,Long S R.A new view of nonlinear water waves:the Hilberts spectrum[J]. Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics,1999,31:417-457.
[202]林振山,汪曙光.近四百年北半球气温变化的分析:EMD方法的应用[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(2):90-96.
[203]万仕全,封国林.基于EMD方法的观测数据信息提取与预测研究[J].气象学报,2005,8,63(4): 516-525.
[204]赵犁丰,张晓亮,宋洁.利用EMD方法和小波变化进行信号奇异性检测[J].青岛海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2003,33(5):759-763.
[205]黄长蓉.Hilbert变换及其应用[J].成都气象学院学报,1999,9(4):36-42.
[206]石祥升,林振山.华北地区早-湿转变周期的动力研究[J].热带气象学报,2001,17(4):436-442.
[207]张明阳,林振山,刘会长.我国西北地区干湿转换时间的研究[J].气象科学,2004,24(1):45-54.
[208]王梅,曲福田.基于变异率的中国50多年的耕地变化动因分析[J].资源科学,2005,27(2):39-44.
[209]梅长林,周家良.实用统计方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2002.
[210]王树涛.区域耕地生产力稳定性评价体系研究—以河北省为例[D].保定:河北农业大学,2008.
[211]曾黄麟.粗糙集理论及其应用[M].重庆:重庆大学出版社,1998.
[212]刘清.Rough集及Rough推理[M].北京:科学出版社,2001.
[213]Zheng H F, Chen L D.Classification and regression tree(CART)for analysis of soybean yield variability among fields in Northeast China:the importance of phosphorus application rates under drought conditions.Agriculture,Ecosystem s& Environment.2009,132:98–105.
[214]管卫华.中国经济增长波动的多尺度分析及其预测[D].南京:南京师范大学,2005.
[215]周四军,谢腾.云中国人口增长与粮食生产的协整研究[J].经济数学,2006,23(4):380-385.
[216]洪波,陈浩.耕地非农化对粮食生产影响研究——基于耕地质量变化角度的分析[J].江西农业学报,2007,19(4):127-129.
[217]王慧敏.对粮食稳定增长模型的设定及分析[J].农业机械化与电气化,2004,1:52-55.
[218]http://www.zgny.com.cn/TechHtml/5/9/1/91752.html.
[219]Leigh R A, Johnston A E.Long-Term Experiments in agricultural and ecological sciences·in: proceeding of a conference to celebrate the 150th anniversary of rothamsted experimental station,and Cambridge,University Press,1994:14-17.
[220]鲍士旦主编.土壤农化分析(第三版).北京:中国农业出版社,2000,39-109,116-139.
[221]Timsina J, Singh U, Badaruddin M, et al. Cultivar, nitrogen, and water effects on productivity, and nitrogen-use efficiency and balance for rice-wheat sequences of Bangladesh[J]. Field Crops Research, 2001, 72: 143-161.
[222]周学文,赵小敏,胡国瑞,等.南方丘陵地区水田土壤养分变异分析[J].江西农业大学学报,2009,31(5): 919-926.
[223]邵华,郭熙,赵小敏,等.江西省耕地地力等级评价研究[J].江西农业大学学报,2006,28(6):939-944.