跨国银行在华投资的动因与效应研究
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摘要
随着我国金融业改革开放的深入进行,跨国银行越来越多地参与到我国的经济建设中来,成为中国金融体系的一个重要组成部分;经过五年的入世缓冲期,跨国银行在2006年年末开始全面进入中国银行业市场,一场中外资之间的市场争夺战不可避免;本文从国际投资学的理论出发,探讨了跨国银行在华投资背后的各种推动力量和其进入对中国的金融发展所带来的种种影响,并在此基础上提出应对的建议和监管的思路。
本文首先总结了跨国银行研究的相关理论,归纳了西方学者关于跨国银行进入东道国动因和效应的研究文献;其次,简单回顾了跨国银行在华投资的历史和现状,论述了内部化理论的核心要素和其在解释跨国银行海外投资上的科学性,并将其用来解释跨国银行在中国的投资活动;在此基础上,从跨国银行对东道国银行资产的供给和东道国对跨国银行资产需求的角度来建立跨国银行资产的供给需求模型,以此来讨论跨国银行在华投资的动因,并建立一个联立方程计量模型验证内部化理论的解释力;再次,基于金融发展理论,从金融深化和金融稳定两个角度来分析跨国银行进入给中国宏观经济和金融发展所带来的具体效应,然后通过一个固定效应的平行数据模型来分析跨国银行进入同中国银行业效率之间的关系;最后提出两个改革建议,即对内应当继续深化商业银行改革,建立以产权结构多元化为核心的公司治理结构;对外要继续开放金融业市场,加大引进跨国银行的力度,放宽对外资入股国内银行的比例限制;监管上,要以审慎性原则为基础,探索出一条具有中国特色的跨国银行监管之路。
After five year buffer-period since China has joined WTO, Chinese banking is on the new start. In the view of foreign banks will completely enter China from 2007, a war in Chinese banking market between foreign and domestic is inevitable. Under such circumstance, it is meaningful to do some research on multinational banks’activities in China.
The paper is mainly intended to study the motivation and effect of multinational banks’entry in China, which include four parts. Chapter 1 presents the literature review of multinational Banks’oversea investment, summarizes the studies on motivation and effect of multinational banks’entry to the host country; In Chapter 2, after reviewing the history of multinational banks’development in China, the paper utilizes the internalization theory to discuss the push and pull power of multinational banks’oversea investment activities, then a model is constructed to analyze the motivation of multinational banks’entry in China; Chapter 3 describes the macroeconomic effect of multinational banks’entry in China,especially pays attention to what multinational banks’entry can bring to Chinese financial deepening, and a econometric model is built to analyze the relationship between multinational banks’entry and Chinese banking efficiency; The last Chapter gives some detailed suggestions based on the whole issue.
本文首先总结了跨国银行研究的相关理论,归纳了西方学者关于跨国银行进入东道国动因和效应的研究文献;其次,简单回顾了跨国银行在华投资的历史和现状,论述了内部化理论的核心要素和其在解释跨国银行海外投资上的科学性,并将其用来解释跨国银行在中国的投资活动;在此基础上,从跨国银行对东道国银行资产的供给和东道国对跨国银行资产需求的角度来建立跨国银行资产的供给需求模型,以此来讨论跨国银行在华投资的动因,并建立一个联立方程计量模型验证内部化理论的解释力;再次,基于金融发展理论,从金融深化和金融稳定两个角度来分析跨国银行进入给中国宏观经济和金融发展所带来的具体效应,然后通过一个固定效应的平行数据模型来分析跨国银行进入同中国银行业效率之间的关系;最后提出两个改革建议,即对内应当继续深化商业银行改革,建立以产权结构多元化为核心的公司治理结构;对外要继续开放金融业市场,加大引进跨国银行的力度,放宽对外资入股国内银行的比例限制;监管上,要以审慎性原则为基础,探索出一条具有中国特色的跨国银行监管之路。
After five year buffer-period since China has joined WTO, Chinese banking is on the new start. In the view of foreign banks will completely enter China from 2007, a war in Chinese banking market between foreign and domestic is inevitable. Under such circumstance, it is meaningful to do some research on multinational banks’activities in China.
The paper is mainly intended to study the motivation and effect of multinational banks’entry in China, which include four parts. Chapter 1 presents the literature review of multinational Banks’oversea investment, summarizes the studies on motivation and effect of multinational banks’entry to the host country; In Chapter 2, after reviewing the history of multinational banks’development in China, the paper utilizes the internalization theory to discuss the push and pull power of multinational banks’oversea investment activities, then a model is constructed to analyze the motivation of multinational banks’entry in China; Chapter 3 describes the macroeconomic effect of multinational banks’entry in China,especially pays attention to what multinational banks’entry can bring to Chinese financial deepening, and a econometric model is built to analyze the relationship between multinational banks’entry and Chinese banking efficiency; The last Chapter gives some detailed suggestions based on the whole issue.
引文
① 引自银监会《中国银行业对外开放报告》,2007 年 3 月.
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① 1993 年数据
② 到 2006 年末,国有银行的资产总额为整个银行系统的 53%。
③ 见附录二
① 见附录三
② 银监会.中国银行业对外开放报告.2007 年 3 月
① 信贷约束是指由于信息不对称所导致的道德风险和逆向选择行为使银行并不一定愿意增加放贷的行为。
② Claessens, S. A. Demirguc-Kunt, H. Huizinga.How does Foreign Entry Affect Domestic Banking Market? [J].Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 25, NO. 5, 2001.
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② 见附录二。
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① 注:2004 年外资在韩国银行业中的比重为 30%。
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① 1993 年数据
② 到 2006 年末,国有银行的资产总额为整个银行系统的 53%。
③ 见附录二
① 见附录三
② 银监会.中国银行业对外开放报告.2007 年 3 月
① 信贷约束是指由于信息不对称所导致的道德风险和逆向选择行为使银行并不一定愿意增加放贷的行为。
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② 见附录二。
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① 注:2004 年外资在韩国银行业中的比重为 30%。
② 王一江,田国强.中国银行业:改革两难与外资作用[J].比较,(10):55-67.
③ 田国强.一个关于转型经济中最优所有权安排的理论[J].经济学季刊,2001,(1):45-70.
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