河南省现代产业体系构建及Malmquist指数分析
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摘要
现代产业体系的构建是经济发展到一定阶段客观要求,构建现代产业体系有利于经济发展方式的转变,促进经济可持续发展,有利于经济、社会、环境的和谐发展,实现全面构建小康社会的目标。河南省在经济发展过程中由于区域要素禀赋、经济开放程度和市场化程度的局限,产业结构呈现出低度化、内源化的特征。要素瓶颈制约也进入了凸显期,环境容量趋于饱和,能源、土地等约束条件日趋紧缩,以粗放型发展、数量型扩张为特征的经济增长方式难以继续,河南省产业结构的亟需调整,构建现代产业体系迫在眉睫。本文结合河南省省情,运用灰色关联分析方法,对三次产业的主导产业进行选择,以构建河南省现代产业体系三维模型,并运用Malmquist指数对现代产业体系进行全要素生产率分析,分析结果作为河南省现代产业体系的优化依据,以期加快产业结构的调整步伐。
本文对河南省三次产业比重和比较劳动生产率进行分析,结果表明与全国平均水平相比,依然存在差距。本文以三次产业的主导产业选择为切入点,运用灰色关联分析方法,对各产业与总增加值的相关联程度以及变化趋势为分析对象,确定三次产业的主导产业。根据已确定的主导产业,构建河南省现代产业体系三维模型：现代农业—工业主导产业—现代服务业,并对模型的运行机理加以阐释。
全要素生产率的增长率常被视为科技进步的指标,反映的是技术进步对经济发展作用的影响程度,本文运用Malmquist指数对工业主导产业和现代服务业进行综合效率分析,测算出了综合效率、技术进步效率、纯技术进步效率、规模效率变化和全要素生产率变化。以此作为现代产业体系进行优化调整的依据,根据评价结果,对各产业的进一步发展,提出有针对性的政策及建议,为政府制定产业发展政策、确定产业布局、制定区域发展规划提供科学依据。
Modern industry system construction is the objective requirement of economic development to a certain stage. Building a modern industrial system is beneficial to transform the mode of economic development; Promoting the economic sustainable development is conducive to the harmonious development of economy, society and environment which can achieve the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round aspects. Due to the restriction of regional factor endowment, economic opening degree and the degree of marketization in the process of economic development in Henan province, the industrial structure featured with low level and endogenous. Bottleneck restriction also enters the peak periods which means the capacity of environment tends to saturated, constraint condition of energy and land are increasing tight. Henan province characterized with extensive development and quantitative expansion mode of economic growth which are hard to continue. The industrial structure should be adjusted and the modern industrial system need to be built immediately. The result indicates that the industrial structure should be adjusted and the modern industrial system needs to be built immediately. Combining with the situation in Henan province, using the grey relational analysis method to choose of three-industry's leading industry,3D model of the modern industrial system was built and analyzed the total factor productivity by Malmquist. As an optimization opinion, the result speeds up the adjustment of the industrial structure in Henan province.
This paper analyses the proportion of three-industry and the labor productivity comparative. The result indicates that compared to the national average level, there is still a gap. This essay chooses three-industry as the breakthrough point and uses grey relational analysis method to determine the leading industries. It selects the relative degree and the variation trend between industries and the total Value-added as analysis objects. According to the established dominant industry,3D model is built: modern agriculture, industrial leading industry, modern service industry. It interprets the mechanism of the model.
The growth rate of total factor productivity is often seen as indicators of scientific and technological progress which reflects the effect caused by technology advanced to the economic development. This article uses the Malmquist to illustrate the comprehensive efficiency between industrial leading industry and modern service industry. The model measures the comprehensive efficiency, technical progress,pure technical efficiency,scale efficiency and total factor productivity changes. As an optimization adjusted basis of the modern industrial system,according to the evaluation results, the research proposes targeted policies and suggestions about the further development of the industry. It provides scientific basis for the government to make industry development policy, industrial layout and the regional development planning.
本文对河南省三次产业比重和比较劳动生产率进行分析,结果表明与全国平均水平相比,依然存在差距。本文以三次产业的主导产业选择为切入点,运用灰色关联分析方法,对各产业与总增加值的相关联程度以及变化趋势为分析对象,确定三次产业的主导产业。根据已确定的主导产业,构建河南省现代产业体系三维模型：现代农业—工业主导产业—现代服务业,并对模型的运行机理加以阐释。
全要素生产率的增长率常被视为科技进步的指标,反映的是技术进步对经济发展作用的影响程度,本文运用Malmquist指数对工业主导产业和现代服务业进行综合效率分析,测算出了综合效率、技术进步效率、纯技术进步效率、规模效率变化和全要素生产率变化。以此作为现代产业体系进行优化调整的依据,根据评价结果,对各产业的进一步发展,提出有针对性的政策及建议,为政府制定产业发展政策、确定产业布局、制定区域发展规划提供科学依据。
Modern industry system construction is the objective requirement of economic development to a certain stage. Building a modern industrial system is beneficial to transform the mode of economic development; Promoting the economic sustainable development is conducive to the harmonious development of economy, society and environment which can achieve the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round aspects. Due to the restriction of regional factor endowment, economic opening degree and the degree of marketization in the process of economic development in Henan province, the industrial structure featured with low level and endogenous. Bottleneck restriction also enters the peak periods which means the capacity of environment tends to saturated, constraint condition of energy and land are increasing tight. Henan province characterized with extensive development and quantitative expansion mode of economic growth which are hard to continue. The industrial structure should be adjusted and the modern industrial system need to be built immediately. The result indicates that the industrial structure should be adjusted and the modern industrial system needs to be built immediately. Combining with the situation in Henan province, using the grey relational analysis method to choose of three-industry's leading industry,3D model of the modern industrial system was built and analyzed the total factor productivity by Malmquist. As an optimization opinion, the result speeds up the adjustment of the industrial structure in Henan province.
This paper analyses the proportion of three-industry and the labor productivity comparative. The result indicates that compared to the national average level, there is still a gap. This essay chooses three-industry as the breakthrough point and uses grey relational analysis method to determine the leading industries. It selects the relative degree and the variation trend between industries and the total Value-added as analysis objects. According to the established dominant industry,3D model is built: modern agriculture, industrial leading industry, modern service industry. It interprets the mechanism of the model.
The growth rate of total factor productivity is often seen as indicators of scientific and technological progress which reflects the effect caused by technology advanced to the economic development. This article uses the Malmquist to illustrate the comprehensive efficiency between industrial leading industry and modern service industry. The model measures the comprehensive efficiency, technical progress,pure technical efficiency,scale efficiency and total factor productivity changes. As an optimization adjusted basis of the modern industrial system,according to the evaluation results, the research proposes targeted policies and suggestions about the further development of the industry. It provides scientific basis for the government to make industry development policy, industrial layout and the regional development planning.
引文
[1]郭晔,赖章福.政策调控下的区域产业结构调整[J].中国工业经济,2011(4)：74-83.
[2]汪立峰.国际分工与我国现代产业体系的发展[J].高校理论战线,2011(2)：35-38.
[3]陈建军.关于打造现代产业体系的思考[J].浙江经济,2008(17)：43-45.
[4]彭兴庭.论现代产业体系的构建[J].华北电力大学学报(社会科学版),2009(5)：11-15.
[5]詹懿.中国现代产业体系—症结及其治理[J].财政问题研究,2010(12)：31-36.
[6]刘钊.现代产业体系的内涵与特征[J].山东社会科学,2011(5)：160-162.
[7]焉荣竹.打造现代产业体系,拓展城市发展空间[J].求是,2010(23)：36-37.
[8]王国平.发展方式实质性转变与现代产业体系的构建[J].国家行政学院学报,2012(3)：21-25.
[9]王国平.我国现代产业体系优化的标志、条件与实现路径[J].国家行政学院学报,2012(5)：42-46.
[10]刘明宇,芮明杰.全球化背景下中国现代产业体系的构建模式研究[J].中国工业经济,2009(5)：57-66.
[11]田家欣.构建区域现代产业体系的路径与政策选择[J].商业经济与管理,2010(7)：91-96.
[12]周权雄.现代产业体系构建的背景条件与动力机制[J].科技进步与对策,2010,27(2)：49-52.
[13]周权雄.广州构建现代产业体系的现状、问题与对策建议[J].科技管理研究,2010(1)：39-42.
[14]周伟.北京构建现代产业体系的路径选择和政策建议[J].经济研究参考,2012(59)：60-62.
[15]江涌,李雪瑜.依靠科技创新,构建广东现代产业体系[J].科技管理研究,2011(24)：24-27.
[16]张明哲.现代产业体系的特征与发展趋势研究[J].当代经济管理,2010(1)：42-46.
[17]杨以文,郑江淮等.走向后工业化—建立以服务业为主体的现代产业体系[J].经济地理,2012,32(10)：70-76.
[18]戚晓曜.中国现代产业体系的构建研究[M].北京：中国经济出版社,2011.
[19]河南省人民政府.河南十二五规划[R].2010.
[20]芮明杰.产业经济学[M].上海：上海财经大学山版社,2005(8).
[21]亚当.斯密,杨敬年泽.国富论(上卷)[M].西安：陕西人民出版社,2006.
[22]筱原二代平.产业结构论[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社.1990.
[23]孙承平,李鲁静等.区域规划、产业转型与区域发展[J].中国工业经济,2010(7)：146-151.
[24]马艳华.后危机时代我国产业升级的约束条件及对策研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(3)：314-317.
[25]刘思峰,党耀国等.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京：科学出版社,2010.
[26]徐建中,王莉静等.基于灰色关联分析的区域主导产业选择研究[J].科技管理研究,2010,27(9)：51-54.
[27]张冀新.城市群现代产业体系的评价体系构建及指数测算[J].工业技术经济,2012(9)：133-138.
[28]GolleyJane.Regional Patterns of Industrial Development During Chian's Economic Transition [J].The Economies of Transition,2002,10(3):4-10
[29]Christer, Karlssom. The Development of Industrial Networks [J]. International Journal of peration & Production Management,2003 (23):102-106
[30]赵志耕,杨朝峰.中国全要素生产率的测算与解释：1979-2009[J].财经问题研究,2011(9)：3-12.
[31]Banker, R.D., Cooper W.W.etc., Returns to scale indifferent DEA models[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,2004 (154):345-362
[32]Jahanshahloo, GR.etc. Undesirable inputs and outputs in DEA models [J]. Applied Mathematics and Computation,2005 (169):917-925
[33]Cooper W.W., Gu.etc. Comparisons and evaluations of alternative Approaches to the treatment of congestion in DEA [J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2001 (132):66-74.
[34]Cooper W.W., Seiofrd.etc Handbook on data envelopment analysis. Boston:Kluwer Academie Publishers [M].2004.
[35]章祥荪、贵斌威.中国全要素生产率分析：Malmquist指数法评述与应用[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(6)：111-122.
[36]王海峰,罗亚非等.基于超效率DEA和Malmquist指数的研发创新评价国际比较[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2010(4)：42-49.
[37]Hubd, Mcalerm. Input-output Structure and Growth in China[J]. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation,2004 (64):193-202.
[38]Kumar,S. Environmentally Sensitive Productivity Growth:A global analysis using Malquist—Luenberger index [J]. Ecological Economics,2005.
[39]Lovell,CAK. The Decomposition of Malmquist Productivity Indexes [J]. Journal of Productivity Analysis,2003 (20):437～458
[40]历以宁.历以宁经济文选[M].北京：中国时代经济出版社,2010.
[41]原毅军,刘浩等.中国生产性服务业全要素生产率测度[J].中国软科学,2009(1)：159-167.
[42]马海良,黄德春等.中国三大经济区域全要素能源效率研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(11)38-43.
[43]范丽霞,李谷成.全要素生产率及其在农业领域的研究进展[J].当代经济科学,2012(1)：10-119.
[44]陈瑾瑜.全要素生产率与技术进步间的差别及测算[J].数量经济技术经济研,2012(6)：48-60.
[45]叶世绮,颜彩萍等.确定DEA指标体系的B-D方法[J].暨南大学学报(自然科学版),2004,25(3)：249-255.
[46]国务院发展研究中心产业经济研究部.中国产业发展报告[M].北京：中国发展出版社,2012.
[47]王慧娟.加快构建辽宁现代农业产业体系[J].宏观经济管理,2011(7)：66-67.
[48]杨屹,薛惠娟.产业技术自主创新能力的区域差异性研究[J].中国工业经济,2010(11)：68-76.
[49]刘明宇,芮明杰等.生产性服务价值链嵌入与制造业升级的协同演进关系研究[J].中国工业经济,2010(8)：66-75.
[50]芮明杰,王子军等.产业发展与结构转型研究[M].上海：上海财经大学出版社,2012.
[2]汪立峰.国际分工与我国现代产业体系的发展[J].高校理论战线,2011(2)：35-38.
[3]陈建军.关于打造现代产业体系的思考[J].浙江经济,2008(17)：43-45.
[4]彭兴庭.论现代产业体系的构建[J].华北电力大学学报(社会科学版),2009(5)：11-15.
[5]詹懿.中国现代产业体系—症结及其治理[J].财政问题研究,2010(12)：31-36.
[6]刘钊.现代产业体系的内涵与特征[J].山东社会科学,2011(5)：160-162.
[7]焉荣竹.打造现代产业体系,拓展城市发展空间[J].求是,2010(23)：36-37.
[8]王国平.发展方式实质性转变与现代产业体系的构建[J].国家行政学院学报,2012(3)：21-25.
[9]王国平.我国现代产业体系优化的标志、条件与实现路径[J].国家行政学院学报,2012(5)：42-46.
[10]刘明宇,芮明杰.全球化背景下中国现代产业体系的构建模式研究[J].中国工业经济,2009(5)：57-66.
[11]田家欣.构建区域现代产业体系的路径与政策选择[J].商业经济与管理,2010(7)：91-96.
[12]周权雄.现代产业体系构建的背景条件与动力机制[J].科技进步与对策,2010,27(2)：49-52.
[13]周权雄.广州构建现代产业体系的现状、问题与对策建议[J].科技管理研究,2010(1)：39-42.
[14]周伟.北京构建现代产业体系的路径选择和政策建议[J].经济研究参考,2012(59)：60-62.
[15]江涌,李雪瑜.依靠科技创新,构建广东现代产业体系[J].科技管理研究,2011(24)：24-27.
[16]张明哲.现代产业体系的特征与发展趋势研究[J].当代经济管理,2010(1)：42-46.
[17]杨以文,郑江淮等.走向后工业化—建立以服务业为主体的现代产业体系[J].经济地理,2012,32(10)：70-76.
[18]戚晓曜.中国现代产业体系的构建研究[M].北京：中国经济出版社,2011.
[19]河南省人民政府.河南十二五规划[R].2010.
[20]芮明杰.产业经济学[M].上海：上海财经大学山版社,2005(8).
[21]亚当.斯密,杨敬年泽.国富论(上卷)[M].西安：陕西人民出版社,2006.
[22]筱原二代平.产业结构论[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社.1990.
[23]孙承平,李鲁静等.区域规划、产业转型与区域发展[J].中国工业经济,2010(7)：146-151.
[24]马艳华.后危机时代我国产业升级的约束条件及对策研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(3)：314-317.
[25]刘思峰,党耀国等.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京：科学出版社,2010.
[26]徐建中,王莉静等.基于灰色关联分析的区域主导产业选择研究[J].科技管理研究,2010,27(9)：51-54.
[27]张冀新.城市群现代产业体系的评价体系构建及指数测算[J].工业技术经济,2012(9)：133-138.
[28]GolleyJane.Regional Patterns of Industrial Development During Chian's Economic Transition [J].The Economies of Transition,2002,10(3):4-10
[29]Christer, Karlssom. The Development of Industrial Networks [J]. International Journal of peration & Production Management,2003 (23):102-106
[30]赵志耕,杨朝峰.中国全要素生产率的测算与解释：1979-2009[J].财经问题研究,2011(9)：3-12.
[31]Banker, R.D., Cooper W.W.etc., Returns to scale indifferent DEA models[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,2004 (154):345-362
[32]Jahanshahloo, GR.etc. Undesirable inputs and outputs in DEA models [J]. Applied Mathematics and Computation,2005 (169):917-925
[33]Cooper W.W., Gu.etc. Comparisons and evaluations of alternative Approaches to the treatment of congestion in DEA [J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2001 (132):66-74.
[34]Cooper W.W., Seiofrd.etc Handbook on data envelopment analysis. Boston:Kluwer Academie Publishers [M].2004.
[35]章祥荪、贵斌威.中国全要素生产率分析：Malmquist指数法评述与应用[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(6)：111-122.
[36]王海峰,罗亚非等.基于超效率DEA和Malmquist指数的研发创新评价国际比较[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2010(4)：42-49.
[37]Hubd, Mcalerm. Input-output Structure and Growth in China[J]. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation,2004 (64):193-202.
[38]Kumar,S. Environmentally Sensitive Productivity Growth:A global analysis using Malquist—Luenberger index [J]. Ecological Economics,2005.
[39]Lovell,CAK. The Decomposition of Malmquist Productivity Indexes [J]. Journal of Productivity Analysis,2003 (20):437～458
[40]历以宁.历以宁经济文选[M].北京：中国时代经济出版社,2010.
[41]原毅军,刘浩等.中国生产性服务业全要素生产率测度[J].中国软科学,2009(1)：159-167.
[42]马海良,黄德春等.中国三大经济区域全要素能源效率研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(11)38-43.
[43]范丽霞,李谷成.全要素生产率及其在农业领域的研究进展[J].当代经济科学,2012(1)：10-119.
[44]陈瑾瑜.全要素生产率与技术进步间的差别及测算[J].数量经济技术经济研,2012(6)：48-60.
[45]叶世绮,颜彩萍等.确定DEA指标体系的B-D方法[J].暨南大学学报(自然科学版),2004,25(3)：249-255.
[46]国务院发展研究中心产业经济研究部.中国产业发展报告[M].北京：中国发展出版社,2012.
[47]王慧娟.加快构建辽宁现代农业产业体系[J].宏观经济管理,2011(7)：66-67.
[48]杨屹,薛惠娟.产业技术自主创新能力的区域差异性研究[J].中国工业经济,2010(11)：68-76.
[49]刘明宇,芮明杰等.生产性服务价值链嵌入与制造业升级的协同演进关系研究[J].中国工业经济,2010(8)：66-75.
[50]芮明杰,王子军等.产业发展与结构转型研究[M].上海：上海财经大学出版社,2012.