农户对农业面源污染治理培训项目的行为响应研究
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摘要
面源污染是全球公认地表水与地下水污染的主要来源，而农业面源污染又是面源污染的最大贡献者。最新公布的污染普查报告指出，我国各类源废水排放总量中，农业源的氮、磷排放量超过总排放量的50%，我国水资源污染已经由工业主导转变成农业为主要污染源的局面，治理农业面源污染刻不容缓。由中央政府颁布的水污染法律法规具有综合性强、覆盖面广的基本内容，但具体实施操作细节不够明确，在治理过程中的可操作性较差，不能满足农业面源污染的治理需求。利用市场经济手段调节单个个体的污染选择可能将与社会最佳污染选择达到一致，但农业面源污染防控的难点在于难以在可承担的成本之内对污染源进行有效地监测，无法准确地监测出单个农户对农业面源污染贡献及应付治理成本，导致市场治理手段难以实施。因此，要从根本上改变当前农业面源污染治理失效的局面，应重视农户的治理主体地位，通过教育培训手段，提高农户环境意识，引导农户自觉进行环境友好型农业生产，从源头上控制农业面源污染的发生。
本文梳理了国内外农业面源污染治理的相关研究，分析了农业面源污染的公共物品属性和外部性特征，探讨了农业面源污染治理的成本-收益以及教育引导对农户化肥施用决策影响，在此基础上，对我国农业面源污染来源、形成原因及治理现状进行综合分析，指出教育培训手段在农业面源污染治理中的重要作用。以测土配方施肥及中英项目为例，利用陕西省实地调研数据，从农户对培训项目的认知行为、参与选择行为和项目实施效果三个方面，实证研究了农户对农业面源污染治理培训项目的行为响应。首先，分析教育手段在农业面源污染治理中的显著积极作用，确认农户对农业面源污染治理培训项目认知的影响因素。其次，探讨农户对农业面源污染治理培训项目的参与行为，引入社会资本变量来考量农户的参与行为并利用相对比率分析法进行深入分析。接着，对农业面源污染治理培训项目的实施效果进行评估，利用倾向评分匹配方法观察参与农户在未参与项目情况下的化肥投入量，将此估计量与参与农户实际化肥投入量比较得出培训项目的平均治理效果，并检验结果的稳定性。最后在借鉴美国农业面源污染治理项目的实施经验及治理成果的基础上，提出针对性的对策建议。本文得出如下主要结论：
（1）以化肥施用为例，探讨了教育培训手段对农户农业面源污染治理行为的作用机理，并构建数学模型实证分析教育培训手段对农户化肥施用量的作用效果。教育培训手段的作用机理是通过影响农户农业面源污染认知，进而影响化肥施用决策，最终导致农户化肥投入量的减少。实证结果显示，在农业面源污染治理培训项目实施的村庄，若农户若参与了中英项目任何一种教育宣传活动，则化肥施用量会减少；若农户未参与则会增加化肥投入量，说明参与培训项目对农户施肥行为具有积极影响。乡镇里设有专业培训人员可以帮助显著减少农户化肥施用量，在这种情况下，当农户在生产过程中遇到化肥施用或品种选择问题，能够更迅速地获得专业培训人员帮助及相关化肥使用的科学知识，从而使得化肥施用行为更加理性。与此同时，农户对农业面源污染治理培训项目的认知受到家庭人口总数、亲戚朋友间信息交流、家庭农业收入与耕地面积的影响。
（2）农户社会资本与教育培训变量显著影响农户参与农业面源污染治理培训项目行为。农户的主要社会资本——与亲戚朋友间的交流和信任，对农户参与培训项目行为有负的影响，会减少农户参与农业面源污染治理培训项目的可能性。而教育培训变量中，所在乡镇设有化肥培训班的情况下，农户参与农业面源污染治理培训项目的可能性增加；农户培训班经验提高农户参与培训项目的可能性；农户支持法律限制化肥使用量，则参与培训项目可能性也会增加。单一因素分析法的结果显示在不同场景下，不同禀赋农户参与培训项目的途径选择存在差异。30岁以下农户参与农户示范及现场观摩和农民大会这两种教育途径的倾向最为明显；农业收入比率在0.41-0.6之间的农户使用宣传手册及海报的可能性最高；乡镇设有化肥培训班对农户参与行为有重要影响，项目每个教育途径的相对参与比率都超过2.00；农户的培训班经验与乡镇化肥培训班的可获得性类似，每种教育途径的相对参与比率都较高。
（3）农业面源污染治理培训项目——测土配方施肥与中英项目，对农户化肥施用量具有减少作用。若农户参与测土配方施肥或者中英项目，相比农户在未参与项目情况下，实际化肥投入量与估计投入量之间差值减少22.67公斤/公顷；若农户参与中英项目，农户的化肥投入量比他们未参与情况下减少56.24公斤/公顷化肥，化肥投入量差值降低37.44公斤/公顷。说明小范围的农业面源污染治理培训项目比全国性的大项目对农户的影响更为广泛。若农户参与去除农民对农民培训这一教育途径的中英项目，化肥投入量比他们没有参与时减少65.7公斤/公顷；若去除农户示范及现场观摩，化肥投入量减少53.11公斤/公顷，化肥差值降低73.92公斤/公顷。另一方面，农户在参与去除海报及宣传手册教育途径的中英项目时，化肥投入量比没有参与项目时增加20.8公斤/公顷，化肥超出量增加19.6公斤/公顷。这表示中英项目的各种信息传播途径中，农户示范及现场观摩与农民对农民培训是缺乏效率的途径，而海报及宣传手册是减少农户化肥投入有效的途径。
Research from all over the world indicate that NPS pollution is the major source ofglobal surface and underground water pollution and agricultural NPS pollution contributemost to NPS pollution. The Pollution Report in2010shows that50%amount of nitrogen andphosphorus emissions in waste water is from agricultural practices in2007in China. Thismeans the water pollution of industry-leading in China is changed to a condition ofagriculture-leading but the agricultural NPS pollution should be controlled without delay. Thecontent of laws and regulations promulgated by government for controlling water pollutionare comprehensive and cover a wide range of area. But it cannot meet the demand forcontrolling agricultural NPS pollution because lacking of the specific implementation detailsof controlling the pollution. The pollution choice of single polluter could be adjusted bymarket-based instruments and becomes consistent with social choice. But the difficulty ofprevention of agricultural NPS pollution is unable to effectively monitor the pollution sourcewith a reasonable cost and cannot identify the contribution and treatment cost for individualfamers. This leads the market-based instruments hard to implement for controllingagricultural NPS pollution. Therefore, to fundamentally change the failure situation ofcontrolling agricultural NPS pollution, we should take the farmers as a main part ofcontrolling pollution, devote more attention on education and training to increase farmers’awareness of NPS pollution and their adoption of environment friendly practices, and preventagricultural NPS occurred in the very beginning.
The domestic and international research on controlling mechanism of agricultural NPSpollution is the foundation of this dissertation. The analysis of characteristics of public goods,externality of agricultural NPS pollution, cost-benefit of controlling agricultural NPSpollution, and the effects of education to farmers’ fertilizer decision are the theoreticalguidance. First, this dissertation synthesize the sources, causes and controlling status ofagricultural NPS pollution, find out the problems of controlling agricultural NPS pollutionsand illustrate the importance of education in the process of controlling agricultural NPSpollutions. Later then, the positive effects of the education to pollution control and the factorswhich are affect farmers’ awareness of education and training program are confirmed by empirical analysis using soil test and China-UK project as example. Next, farmers’participation behavior in education and training program for control agricultural NPSpollution is analyzed using econometric models which include social capital variables, anddetailed analysis of participation behavior is conducted by the relative ratio method.Thereafter, the effects of education and training program are estimated. The average change infarmers’ fertilizer input for treated farmers who participate in the program relative to theircounterfactual fertilizer input for treated farmers while they did not participate. Therobustness check is carried out for the estimated results. At last, the effective implementationand positive outcome of the education and training program for agricultural NPS pollutioncontrol in the United State.
The main conductions of this dissertation are as follows:
(1) The effects of education mechanism to farmers’ behavior for controllingagricultural NPS pollution has been discussed by using theoretical and mathematicmethodology, taking fertilizer input as example. Theoretically, Education program influencefarmers’ cognition of agricultural NPS pollution, thereby influence farmers’ decisions offertilizer input, and eventually leading to a reduction in the amount of farmers fertilizer inputs.Empirical results show that participated farmers decrease the fertilizer input andnon-participated farmers increase the fertilizer in the village with education and trainingprogram. These results represent that education and training projects do have positive effectsto farmers’ fertilizer use. Professional training staff in villages or towns can help to reducefarmers’ fertilizer input. In this case, farmers can quickly obtain help and apply fertilizer inmore rational way when they have problem with applying fertilizer in the process ofagricultural practices. Meanwhile, farmers’ cognition of the education program for controllingagricultural NPS pollution is significantly affected by the numbers of family members,communication with friends and friends, farming income and land area.
(2) Farmers’ social capital and education variables significantly impact farmers’participation in education and training program for controlling agricultural NPS pollution.The communications with friends or relatives, farmers’ social capital, reduce the possibility offarmers’ participation in education and training program. The probability of farmers’participation will increase if farmers can join training classes near the village or town, havegood training experience, and support laws and rules to restrict fertilizer input. Moreover, theresults using single factor analysis show that farmers with different characteristics choosedifferent training methods. Younger farmers (under30years old) prefer the demonstrationzone as well as farmers meeting; farmers with agricultural income ratio between0.41-0.6have the highest probability of brochures and posters; the probability of farmers’ participation in each training methods of the education program is quite high when farmers can jointraining classes near the village or town, have good training experience.
(3) Soil testing and China-UK program reduce a certain amount of farmers’ fertilizerinput. If the farmers involved in soil testing and fertilizer program, compared to farmers notinvolved in the program, the difference between the actual amount of fertilizer inputs andestimated inputs decrease of22.67kg/ha. If the farmers participated in the China-UK project,farmers' fertilizer inputs decrease56.24kg/ha, the difference between the actual and estimatedfertilizer inputs reduce37.44kg/ha than they are not involved in the program. This indicatesthat national agricultural education program is less effective than China-UK program whichhas small regional scale. Farmers apply65.7kg/ha less fertilizer if they participate theChina-UK program without farmer to farmer training,53.11kg/ha less fertilizer withoutdemonstration zone, and reduce73.92kg/ha of the difference between actual and estimatedfertilizer input. On the other hand, Farmers apply20.8kg/ha more fertilizer if they participatethe China-UK program without posters and brochures, increase19.6kg/ha fertilizer of thedifference between actual and estimated fertilizer input. This means that demonstration zoneand farmer to farmer training are the least effective ways to reduce farmers fertilizer inputswhile posters and brochures are most effective ways among all methods for deliveryinformation of the China-UK program.
本文梳理了国内外农业面源污染治理的相关研究，分析了农业面源污染的公共物品属性和外部性特征，探讨了农业面源污染治理的成本-收益以及教育引导对农户化肥施用决策影响，在此基础上，对我国农业面源污染来源、形成原因及治理现状进行综合分析，指出教育培训手段在农业面源污染治理中的重要作用。以测土配方施肥及中英项目为例，利用陕西省实地调研数据，从农户对培训项目的认知行为、参与选择行为和项目实施效果三个方面，实证研究了农户对农业面源污染治理培训项目的行为响应。首先，分析教育手段在农业面源污染治理中的显著积极作用，确认农户对农业面源污染治理培训项目认知的影响因素。其次，探讨农户对农业面源污染治理培训项目的参与行为，引入社会资本变量来考量农户的参与行为并利用相对比率分析法进行深入分析。接着，对农业面源污染治理培训项目的实施效果进行评估，利用倾向评分匹配方法观察参与农户在未参与项目情况下的化肥投入量，将此估计量与参与农户实际化肥投入量比较得出培训项目的平均治理效果，并检验结果的稳定性。最后在借鉴美国农业面源污染治理项目的实施经验及治理成果的基础上，提出针对性的对策建议。本文得出如下主要结论：
（1）以化肥施用为例，探讨了教育培训手段对农户农业面源污染治理行为的作用机理，并构建数学模型实证分析教育培训手段对农户化肥施用量的作用效果。教育培训手段的作用机理是通过影响农户农业面源污染认知，进而影响化肥施用决策，最终导致农户化肥投入量的减少。实证结果显示，在农业面源污染治理培训项目实施的村庄，若农户若参与了中英项目任何一种教育宣传活动，则化肥施用量会减少；若农户未参与则会增加化肥投入量，说明参与培训项目对农户施肥行为具有积极影响。乡镇里设有专业培训人员可以帮助显著减少农户化肥施用量，在这种情况下，当农户在生产过程中遇到化肥施用或品种选择问题，能够更迅速地获得专业培训人员帮助及相关化肥使用的科学知识，从而使得化肥施用行为更加理性。与此同时，农户对农业面源污染治理培训项目的认知受到家庭人口总数、亲戚朋友间信息交流、家庭农业收入与耕地面积的影响。
（2）农户社会资本与教育培训变量显著影响农户参与农业面源污染治理培训项目行为。农户的主要社会资本——与亲戚朋友间的交流和信任，对农户参与培训项目行为有负的影响，会减少农户参与农业面源污染治理培训项目的可能性。而教育培训变量中，所在乡镇设有化肥培训班的情况下，农户参与农业面源污染治理培训项目的可能性增加；农户培训班经验提高农户参与培训项目的可能性；农户支持法律限制化肥使用量，则参与培训项目可能性也会增加。单一因素分析法的结果显示在不同场景下，不同禀赋农户参与培训项目的途径选择存在差异。30岁以下农户参与农户示范及现场观摩和农民大会这两种教育途径的倾向最为明显；农业收入比率在0.41-0.6之间的农户使用宣传手册及海报的可能性最高；乡镇设有化肥培训班对农户参与行为有重要影响，项目每个教育途径的相对参与比率都超过2.00；农户的培训班经验与乡镇化肥培训班的可获得性类似，每种教育途径的相对参与比率都较高。
（3）农业面源污染治理培训项目——测土配方施肥与中英项目，对农户化肥施用量具有减少作用。若农户参与测土配方施肥或者中英项目，相比农户在未参与项目情况下，实际化肥投入量与估计投入量之间差值减少22.67公斤/公顷；若农户参与中英项目，农户的化肥投入量比他们未参与情况下减少56.24公斤/公顷化肥，化肥投入量差值降低37.44公斤/公顷。说明小范围的农业面源污染治理培训项目比全国性的大项目对农户的影响更为广泛。若农户参与去除农民对农民培训这一教育途径的中英项目，化肥投入量比他们没有参与时减少65.7公斤/公顷；若去除农户示范及现场观摩，化肥投入量减少53.11公斤/公顷，化肥差值降低73.92公斤/公顷。另一方面，农户在参与去除海报及宣传手册教育途径的中英项目时，化肥投入量比没有参与项目时增加20.8公斤/公顷，化肥超出量增加19.6公斤/公顷。这表示中英项目的各种信息传播途径中，农户示范及现场观摩与农民对农民培训是缺乏效率的途径，而海报及宣传手册是减少农户化肥投入有效的途径。
Research from all over the world indicate that NPS pollution is the major source ofglobal surface and underground water pollution and agricultural NPS pollution contributemost to NPS pollution. The Pollution Report in2010shows that50%amount of nitrogen andphosphorus emissions in waste water is from agricultural practices in2007in China. Thismeans the water pollution of industry-leading in China is changed to a condition ofagriculture-leading but the agricultural NPS pollution should be controlled without delay. Thecontent of laws and regulations promulgated by government for controlling water pollutionare comprehensive and cover a wide range of area. But it cannot meet the demand forcontrolling agricultural NPS pollution because lacking of the specific implementation detailsof controlling the pollution. The pollution choice of single polluter could be adjusted bymarket-based instruments and becomes consistent with social choice. But the difficulty ofprevention of agricultural NPS pollution is unable to effectively monitor the pollution sourcewith a reasonable cost and cannot identify the contribution and treatment cost for individualfamers. This leads the market-based instruments hard to implement for controllingagricultural NPS pollution. Therefore, to fundamentally change the failure situation ofcontrolling agricultural NPS pollution, we should take the farmers as a main part ofcontrolling pollution, devote more attention on education and training to increase farmers’awareness of NPS pollution and their adoption of environment friendly practices, and preventagricultural NPS occurred in the very beginning.
The domestic and international research on controlling mechanism of agricultural NPSpollution is the foundation of this dissertation. The analysis of characteristics of public goods,externality of agricultural NPS pollution, cost-benefit of controlling agricultural NPSpollution, and the effects of education to farmers’ fertilizer decision are the theoreticalguidance. First, this dissertation synthesize the sources, causes and controlling status ofagricultural NPS pollution, find out the problems of controlling agricultural NPS pollutionsand illustrate the importance of education in the process of controlling agricultural NPSpollutions. Later then, the positive effects of the education to pollution control and the factorswhich are affect farmers’ awareness of education and training program are confirmed by empirical analysis using soil test and China-UK project as example. Next, farmers’participation behavior in education and training program for control agricultural NPSpollution is analyzed using econometric models which include social capital variables, anddetailed analysis of participation behavior is conducted by the relative ratio method.Thereafter, the effects of education and training program are estimated. The average change infarmers’ fertilizer input for treated farmers who participate in the program relative to theircounterfactual fertilizer input for treated farmers while they did not participate. Therobustness check is carried out for the estimated results. At last, the effective implementationand positive outcome of the education and training program for agricultural NPS pollutioncontrol in the United State.
The main conductions of this dissertation are as follows:
(1) The effects of education mechanism to farmers’ behavior for controllingagricultural NPS pollution has been discussed by using theoretical and mathematicmethodology, taking fertilizer input as example. Theoretically, Education program influencefarmers’ cognition of agricultural NPS pollution, thereby influence farmers’ decisions offertilizer input, and eventually leading to a reduction in the amount of farmers fertilizer inputs.Empirical results show that participated farmers decrease the fertilizer input andnon-participated farmers increase the fertilizer in the village with education and trainingprogram. These results represent that education and training projects do have positive effectsto farmers’ fertilizer use. Professional training staff in villages or towns can help to reducefarmers’ fertilizer input. In this case, farmers can quickly obtain help and apply fertilizer inmore rational way when they have problem with applying fertilizer in the process ofagricultural practices. Meanwhile, farmers’ cognition of the education program for controllingagricultural NPS pollution is significantly affected by the numbers of family members,communication with friends and friends, farming income and land area.
(2) Farmers’ social capital and education variables significantly impact farmers’participation in education and training program for controlling agricultural NPS pollution.The communications with friends or relatives, farmers’ social capital, reduce the possibility offarmers’ participation in education and training program. The probability of farmers’participation will increase if farmers can join training classes near the village or town, havegood training experience, and support laws and rules to restrict fertilizer input. Moreover, theresults using single factor analysis show that farmers with different characteristics choosedifferent training methods. Younger farmers (under30years old) prefer the demonstrationzone as well as farmers meeting; farmers with agricultural income ratio between0.41-0.6have the highest probability of brochures and posters; the probability of farmers’ participation in each training methods of the education program is quite high when farmers can jointraining classes near the village or town, have good training experience.
(3) Soil testing and China-UK program reduce a certain amount of farmers’ fertilizerinput. If the farmers involved in soil testing and fertilizer program, compared to farmers notinvolved in the program, the difference between the actual amount of fertilizer inputs andestimated inputs decrease of22.67kg/ha. If the farmers participated in the China-UK project,farmers' fertilizer inputs decrease56.24kg/ha, the difference between the actual and estimatedfertilizer inputs reduce37.44kg/ha than they are not involved in the program. This indicatesthat national agricultural education program is less effective than China-UK program whichhas small regional scale. Farmers apply65.7kg/ha less fertilizer if they participate theChina-UK program without farmer to farmer training,53.11kg/ha less fertilizer withoutdemonstration zone, and reduce73.92kg/ha of the difference between actual and estimatedfertilizer input. On the other hand, Farmers apply20.8kg/ha more fertilizer if they participatethe China-UK program without posters and brochures, increase19.6kg/ha fertilizer of thedifference between actual and estimated fertilizer input. This means that demonstration zoneand farmer to farmer training are the least effective ways to reduce farmers fertilizer inputswhile posters and brochures are most effective ways among all methods for deliveryinformation of the China-UK program.
引文
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