冰雪条件下城市路网行程时间可靠性研究
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摘要
道路交通系统是经济、社会发展的重要基础及生命线系统之一,其运行状况直接关系人民生命财产安全及国民经济发展。如何提高城市路网运行的稳定性,保证道路交通系统生命线功能的正常发挥,一直备受社会各界尤其是交通工程领域所关注。国内外研究实践表明,开展城市路网可靠性研究对于改进路网规划、救灾防灾、提高交通管理水平等方面具有积极的促进作用。
论文系统研究冰雪条件下城市路网行程时间可靠性,旨在针对冰雪条件下城市路网交通特性,对冰雪条件下城市路网行程时间可靠性进行深入研究,为城市交通规划、管理、应急救灾提供理论支撑,为冰雪条件下路网可靠性评价指标体系建立及路网可靠性评价奠定理论基础。
在分析冰雪条件下城市路网交通特性的基础上,研究城市路网单元——路段和交叉口的行程时间可靠性、冰雪条件下出行者的广义出行费用,进而研究冰雪条件下基于广义出行费用的路网行程时间可靠性。在研究思路上以可靠性理论为基础,应用概率论与数理统计、数值分析、蒙特卡罗(Monte Carlo)仿真、数学规划模型求解等多种方式和手段,采用基础理论和应用相结合的方法进行研究。
通过交通调查、数据分析,研究不同冰雪条件下路段及交叉口交通特性,包括路段车辆到达分布、车头时距及其分布、速度及交通量变化规律、交叉口的饱和流率、运行速度、临界穿越间隙与随车车头时距分布等等,并与正常天气条件相应的交通特性进行对比分析。
引入冰雪条件对路段自由行程时间及通行能力影响的修正函数,建立冰雪条件下路段行程时间ISB-BPR (Ice and Snowfall Based Bureau of Public Roads)函数,利用哈尔滨市及威海市调查数据,针对不同类别城市道路的修正函数进行标定。基于现有路段行程时间可靠性概念的局限性,提出新的路段行程时间可靠性定义。结合已标定的ISB-BPR函数,建立冰雪条件下路段行程时间可靠性模型。为便于可靠性评价结果的比较及应用,设定可靠性评价标准,界定不同服务水平要求下的行程时间期望值,以及对可靠性评价结果进行等级划分。结合模型特点提出Monte Carlo仿真算法,建立冰雪条件下路段行程时间可靠性评价方法,并通过实例验证评价方法的有效性,分析冰雪条件下路段行程时间可靠性的影响因素。
为改进以往关于交叉口部分行程时间研究中假设条件不尽合理的不足,分别采用M3分布、组合负指数分布描述交叉口直行机动车、非机动车车头时距,以可插车间隙理论、排队论为理论基础构建左转、右转车流通过交叉口的行程时间模型。同时,考虑左转冲突车流对直行车流的影响,修正直行车流通过交叉口的行程时间模型。综合不同流向的行程时间模型,构建以不同流向车道组为基本单元的交叉口行程时间可靠性模型,并设定交叉口行程时间可靠性评价标准,提出冰雪条件下交叉口行程时间可靠性评价方法。通过实例验证评价方法的有效性,分析冰雪条件下交叉口行程时间可靠性影响因素。
在分析冰雪条件下出行行为特点的基础上,考虑出行的安全性因素,定义路段、交叉口的广义出行费用函数,引入坡道行驶安全系数,采用该系数的倒数来量化冰雪条件下安全性出行费用,以不同的加权系数反映出行者对待出行风险的态度;为消除评价指标量纲的影响,对各指标进行无量纲化处理;基于冰雪条件下交通需求的变化,建立基于广义出行费用的弹性需求分配模型;突破以一般串联系统理论建立路径行程时间可靠性模型的传统思路,以路径作为整体单元对其行程时间可靠性进行研究;突破以一般并联系统理论建立OD(Origin Destination)对行程时间可靠性的方法,采用各路径行程时间可靠性的加权平均值求取;以OD对行程时间可靠性为基础构建路网行程时间可靠性模型;将以上模型应用于哈尔滨市及威海市的局域路网行程时间可靠性评价,验证评价方法的有效性与实用性,并对两地评价结果进行对比分析。
Road traffic system which is one of the lifeline systems is the important foundation of urban economic and social development. Its running state and stability is directly related to people's lives, property security and national economic development. How to improve the urban road network operation stability and ensure the lifeline road traffic system function performing properly have abstracted a lot of interest from the society particularly in the traffic-engineering field in recent years. Research practice shows that reserching on the urban road network reliability has a promoting effect on the improvement of network planning, disaster relief, traffic management and so on.
The road network travel time reliability under ice and snowfall conditions was systematically studied. Aimed at putting forward the road network travel time reliability evaluation methodology with the consideration of the characteristics of transportation system under ice and snowfall conditions, providing the reliability evaluation indexes and references of network reliability assessment under these conditions, and providing theoretical support for the urban traffic planning, management, emergency relief etc.
On the basis of analysing the characteristics of the urban transportation under ice and snowfall conditions, the travel time reliability of the urban road network elements——links and intersections and the generalized travel cost can be studied, By regarding the reliability theory as the basis of the research ideas using the transportation research, probability and mathematical statistics, numerical analysis, Monte Carlo simulation , mathematical planning model and other methods and combining the basic theory and the application . Then the urban road network reliability under ice and snowfall conditions can be studied basing on the generalized travel cost.
Through extensive investigation and analysis of traffic survey data, link and intersection traffic flow characteristics under different ice and snowfall conditions were studied, including vehicle’s arrival-distribution at link, headway distribution, speed and traffic flow volume changing rules, intersections’saturated flow rate, running speed and critical accepted headway and following headway distribution, etc, and comparative analysis was made to traffic characteristics corresponding to the normal weather conditions, providing the basis for the follow-up study.
Based on the analysis of the relevant theories and field observation data, modified functions of the link free travel time and capacity under ice and snowfall conditions were introduced, ISB-BPR (Ice and Snowfall Based-Bureau of Public Roads) travel time function was established and parameters calibration were done respectively according to the field observation data in Harbin and Weihai. According to the limitations analysis for the conception of present travel time reliability, it was defined in this paper. Combining with the calibrated ISB-BPR function, link travel time reliability model under ice and snowfall conditions was established. In order to facilitate the comparison of reliability evaluation results and the information application, benchmark of LOS for reliability evaluation was set, travel time expectation under different LOS was determined, and the reliability evaluation results were divided according to hierarchies. Additionally, according to the model features, Monte Carlo simulation algorithm was put forward, travel time reliability evaluation methodology under ice and snowfall conditions was established, which effectiveness was verified through example, and influencing factors of the travel time reliability were analyzed.
In order to improve the previous travel time research assumptions, using a more reasonable M3 distribution and combination negative distribution to describe the straight-going vehicles and non-motor vehicle headway at intersections respectively, left-turning and right-turning vehicles travel time models through intersections were founded by using gap theory and queuing theory, providing the models that can be suitable for the urban traffic at intersections. In addition, considering traffic conflict between straight-going and left-turning flows, straight-going vehicles travel time model through intersections was modified, combined with the constructed travel time models of different direction, intersection travel time reliability evaluation models were established by considering different flow driveway group as the basic unit. LOS for intersection travel time reliability evaluation was set, and the reliability evaluation result was divided into hierarchies, finally travel time reliability evaluation methodology at intersections under ice and snowfall conditions was proposed. Afterwards, its effectiveness was verified by example, and the intersection travel time reliability under ice and snowfall conditions influencing factors were analyzed.
Based on the analysis of the travelers behavior characteristics under ice and snowfall conditions and safety, generalized travel cost functions of link and intersection were defined respectively. The safety factor of driving on the ramp was introduced, using the inverse of the safety factor to quantify the safety cost index of driving under ice and snowfall conditions, and travel attitude towards risk was reflected using different weight coefficients. To eliminate the original dimensional influence, each index was conducted to one without dimension. Based on the change of traffic demand under ice and snowfall conditions, EDUE, which is based on generalized travel cost, was established. Breakthrough of the traditional idea that route travel time reliability model was set by general series system by considering route as a whole unit was made, another breakthrough is that not using a paralleling system on the reliability of the travel time OD (Origin Destination), but for each route of OD the weighted average travel time reliability, on the base of OD travel time reliability, the road network reliability model was set up. Finally, the effectiveness and practicality of the evaluation methodology was validated by being applied to the partial road network travel time reliability evaluation in Harbin and Weihai. And comparisons of evaluation results were done between the above cities.
论文系统研究冰雪条件下城市路网行程时间可靠性,旨在针对冰雪条件下城市路网交通特性,对冰雪条件下城市路网行程时间可靠性进行深入研究,为城市交通规划、管理、应急救灾提供理论支撑,为冰雪条件下路网可靠性评价指标体系建立及路网可靠性评价奠定理论基础。
在分析冰雪条件下城市路网交通特性的基础上,研究城市路网单元——路段和交叉口的行程时间可靠性、冰雪条件下出行者的广义出行费用,进而研究冰雪条件下基于广义出行费用的路网行程时间可靠性。在研究思路上以可靠性理论为基础,应用概率论与数理统计、数值分析、蒙特卡罗(Monte Carlo)仿真、数学规划模型求解等多种方式和手段,采用基础理论和应用相结合的方法进行研究。
通过交通调查、数据分析,研究不同冰雪条件下路段及交叉口交通特性,包括路段车辆到达分布、车头时距及其分布、速度及交通量变化规律、交叉口的饱和流率、运行速度、临界穿越间隙与随车车头时距分布等等,并与正常天气条件相应的交通特性进行对比分析。
引入冰雪条件对路段自由行程时间及通行能力影响的修正函数,建立冰雪条件下路段行程时间ISB-BPR (Ice and Snowfall Based Bureau of Public Roads)函数,利用哈尔滨市及威海市调查数据,针对不同类别城市道路的修正函数进行标定。基于现有路段行程时间可靠性概念的局限性,提出新的路段行程时间可靠性定义。结合已标定的ISB-BPR函数,建立冰雪条件下路段行程时间可靠性模型。为便于可靠性评价结果的比较及应用,设定可靠性评价标准,界定不同服务水平要求下的行程时间期望值,以及对可靠性评价结果进行等级划分。结合模型特点提出Monte Carlo仿真算法,建立冰雪条件下路段行程时间可靠性评价方法,并通过实例验证评价方法的有效性,分析冰雪条件下路段行程时间可靠性的影响因素。
为改进以往关于交叉口部分行程时间研究中假设条件不尽合理的不足,分别采用M3分布、组合负指数分布描述交叉口直行机动车、非机动车车头时距,以可插车间隙理论、排队论为理论基础构建左转、右转车流通过交叉口的行程时间模型。同时,考虑左转冲突车流对直行车流的影响,修正直行车流通过交叉口的行程时间模型。综合不同流向的行程时间模型,构建以不同流向车道组为基本单元的交叉口行程时间可靠性模型,并设定交叉口行程时间可靠性评价标准,提出冰雪条件下交叉口行程时间可靠性评价方法。通过实例验证评价方法的有效性,分析冰雪条件下交叉口行程时间可靠性影响因素。
在分析冰雪条件下出行行为特点的基础上,考虑出行的安全性因素,定义路段、交叉口的广义出行费用函数,引入坡道行驶安全系数,采用该系数的倒数来量化冰雪条件下安全性出行费用,以不同的加权系数反映出行者对待出行风险的态度;为消除评价指标量纲的影响,对各指标进行无量纲化处理;基于冰雪条件下交通需求的变化,建立基于广义出行费用的弹性需求分配模型;突破以一般串联系统理论建立路径行程时间可靠性模型的传统思路,以路径作为整体单元对其行程时间可靠性进行研究;突破以一般并联系统理论建立OD(Origin Destination)对行程时间可靠性的方法,采用各路径行程时间可靠性的加权平均值求取;以OD对行程时间可靠性为基础构建路网行程时间可靠性模型;将以上模型应用于哈尔滨市及威海市的局域路网行程时间可靠性评价,验证评价方法的有效性与实用性,并对两地评价结果进行对比分析。
Road traffic system which is one of the lifeline systems is the important foundation of urban economic and social development. Its running state and stability is directly related to people's lives, property security and national economic development. How to improve the urban road network operation stability and ensure the lifeline road traffic system function performing properly have abstracted a lot of interest from the society particularly in the traffic-engineering field in recent years. Research practice shows that reserching on the urban road network reliability has a promoting effect on the improvement of network planning, disaster relief, traffic management and so on.
The road network travel time reliability under ice and snowfall conditions was systematically studied. Aimed at putting forward the road network travel time reliability evaluation methodology with the consideration of the characteristics of transportation system under ice and snowfall conditions, providing the reliability evaluation indexes and references of network reliability assessment under these conditions, and providing theoretical support for the urban traffic planning, management, emergency relief etc.
On the basis of analysing the characteristics of the urban transportation under ice and snowfall conditions, the travel time reliability of the urban road network elements——links and intersections and the generalized travel cost can be studied, By regarding the reliability theory as the basis of the research ideas using the transportation research, probability and mathematical statistics, numerical analysis, Monte Carlo simulation , mathematical planning model and other methods and combining the basic theory and the application . Then the urban road network reliability under ice and snowfall conditions can be studied basing on the generalized travel cost.
Through extensive investigation and analysis of traffic survey data, link and intersection traffic flow characteristics under different ice and snowfall conditions were studied, including vehicle’s arrival-distribution at link, headway distribution, speed and traffic flow volume changing rules, intersections’saturated flow rate, running speed and critical accepted headway and following headway distribution, etc, and comparative analysis was made to traffic characteristics corresponding to the normal weather conditions, providing the basis for the follow-up study.
Based on the analysis of the relevant theories and field observation data, modified functions of the link free travel time and capacity under ice and snowfall conditions were introduced, ISB-BPR (Ice and Snowfall Based-Bureau of Public Roads) travel time function was established and parameters calibration were done respectively according to the field observation data in Harbin and Weihai. According to the limitations analysis for the conception of present travel time reliability, it was defined in this paper. Combining with the calibrated ISB-BPR function, link travel time reliability model under ice and snowfall conditions was established. In order to facilitate the comparison of reliability evaluation results and the information application, benchmark of LOS for reliability evaluation was set, travel time expectation under different LOS was determined, and the reliability evaluation results were divided according to hierarchies. Additionally, according to the model features, Monte Carlo simulation algorithm was put forward, travel time reliability evaluation methodology under ice and snowfall conditions was established, which effectiveness was verified through example, and influencing factors of the travel time reliability were analyzed.
In order to improve the previous travel time research assumptions, using a more reasonable M3 distribution and combination negative distribution to describe the straight-going vehicles and non-motor vehicle headway at intersections respectively, left-turning and right-turning vehicles travel time models through intersections were founded by using gap theory and queuing theory, providing the models that can be suitable for the urban traffic at intersections. In addition, considering traffic conflict between straight-going and left-turning flows, straight-going vehicles travel time model through intersections was modified, combined with the constructed travel time models of different direction, intersection travel time reliability evaluation models were established by considering different flow driveway group as the basic unit. LOS for intersection travel time reliability evaluation was set, and the reliability evaluation result was divided into hierarchies, finally travel time reliability evaluation methodology at intersections under ice and snowfall conditions was proposed. Afterwards, its effectiveness was verified by example, and the intersection travel time reliability under ice and snowfall conditions influencing factors were analyzed.
Based on the analysis of the travelers behavior characteristics under ice and snowfall conditions and safety, generalized travel cost functions of link and intersection were defined respectively. The safety factor of driving on the ramp was introduced, using the inverse of the safety factor to quantify the safety cost index of driving under ice and snowfall conditions, and travel attitude towards risk was reflected using different weight coefficients. To eliminate the original dimensional influence, each index was conducted to one without dimension. Based on the change of traffic demand under ice and snowfall conditions, EDUE, which is based on generalized travel cost, was established. Breakthrough of the traditional idea that route travel time reliability model was set by general series system by considering route as a whole unit was made, another breakthrough is that not using a paralleling system on the reliability of the travel time OD (Origin Destination), but for each route of OD the weighted average travel time reliability, on the base of OD travel time reliability, the road network reliability model was set up. Finally, the effectiveness and practicality of the evaluation methodology was validated by being applied to the partial road network travel time reliability evaluation in Harbin and Weihai. And comparisons of evaluation results were done between the above cities.
引文
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