金融与GDP增长
摘要
本文的中心思想就是论证金融是推动GDP增长的活力。
第一章论证GDP是流量,金融是推动GDP增长的活力,作为全文的总论。GDP所度量的是一个国家或地区在一年之内所生产的最终产品和劳务流量的货币总价值。GDP既然是一种流量,那么人们通过劳动生产出来的有用物品虽然本身具有使用价值,也只不过是GDP的物质承担者,必须通过市场交换转化成货币才能成为别人的使用价值,才能进入GDP。另一方面,GDP虽然是货币价值,但不是保留在个人手中的货币,也不是滞留在银行体系中的货币,而是进入流通领域中的货币。不进入流通的货币就不形成GDP。马克思指出:“商品只有当他保持在流通领域的时候,才能作为财富,作为商品保持下来,只有当他硬化为金银的时候,才能保持这种流动状态。”(马克思,1962)“如果储藏货币不是经常渴望流通,它就仅仅是无用的金属,它的货币的灵魂就会离他而去,它将变成流通的灰烬,流通的枯骨。”(马克思,1962)所以,货物不流通不形成GDP,货币不流通也不形成GDP。
所谓活力就是指推动事物活动起来的力量。说金融是推动GDP增长的活力,就是说金融能使处在静止状态下的商品和货币活动起来,使处在流通之外的商品和货币进入流通领域,形成GDP,形成财富。金融所具有的活力在日常生活中是随处可见的。例如,家庭通过银行贷款购买住房和汽车,这就使滞留在银行的货币活动起来,进入流通;这也使滞留在仓库里的汽车有了活力,进入流通,成为人们的交通工具,使闲置的房屋有了活力,进入流通领域,成为人们的住房。如果没有金融,货币、住房和汽车就都处在静止状态,成为无生气、无活力、无价值的东西。所以,马克思指出:“公债成了原始积累的最强有力的手段之一。他像挥动魔杖一样,使不生产的货币具有了生殖力,这样就使它转化为资本。”(马克思,2002)“资本的不断预付和不断流回,就是人们称之为货币流通的东西。这种有用的和有成效的流通,赋予社会的一切劳动以生气,维持政治机体的运动和生命。人们完全有理由把这种流通比作动物躯体内的血液循环。”(马克思,2002)金融能使不生产的货币具有了生殖力,这就是金融所具有的活力;金融能赋予社会的一切劳动以生气,维持政治机体的运动和生命,这就是金融所具有的活力。
宏观经济学中最基本的公式是:GDP=Y=C+I+G+(X-M)。本文第二章到第五章就是从这个最简单的公式出发,研究金融如何促进消费支出、投资支出、出口和政府支出的增加,成为推动GDP增长的活力。
第二章论证金融是推动消费支出增长的活力。消费支出在GDP中所占的比重最大,是推动GDP增长的最大动力。金融通过提供消费信贷、保险管理和提高市场的流动性等方式提高居民的消费倾向,促进一国消费增长。其中,消费信贷为居民的未来收入与现期消费架起一座桥梁,对推动消费升级和GDP增长发挥了极为重要的作用。由于耐用消费品的购买除了受当期收入影响外,更取决于消费者可预支的未来收入水平。所以,在居民的消费结构由以“衣、食”为核心的基本生活消费向以“住、行”为核心的耐用消费升级的过程中,消费信贷发挥了不可替代的促进作用。金融作为推动消费支出增长的活力,极大地推动了汽车和房地产等支柱产业的发展。而这两个行业具有很高的行业关联度,因此汽车和房地产行业的发展又带动了其它行业的发展,最终推动了GDP的增长。这就是西方经济学中所说的加速原理,这种加速的活力来自于金融。
第三章论证金融是推动投资支出增长的活力。投资是企业对机器设备和厂房设备等资本品的购买。企业投资需要巨额货币支出,但任何一家企业都不会在手头上保留巨额现金。所以,当企业预测投资机会来到之时,只能通过发行股票、债券或向银行借款等方式来为投资筹集资金。因此,企业要投资,首先要融资。而金融则在储蓄和投资之间架起一座桥梁,金融通过降低信息成本、提供流动性等方式动员储蓄,为企业投资提供资金支持;同时,金融发展还缓解了企业融资约束、降低了企业融资成本。所以说,金融是推动投资支出增长的活力。正是由于金融的存在,才使货币流动起来,有了生息的机会;才使机器设备流动起来,在生产中发挥作用;才使工人流动起来,有了就业的机会;才使生产出来的商品投入市场,使贸易繁荣;这一切将最终推动GDP增长。这就是西方经济学所讲的乘数原理,这种乘数的活力也是来自金融。
第四章论证金融是推动出口增长的活力。出口对中国GDP增长具有特别重要的意义。经过改革开放以来30多年的发展,我国已成功地完成了由农业国向工业国的转化,形成了巨大的生产能力。但由于种种原因,国内市场无法全部消化掉这些产能,因此出口便成为消化“过剩”产能的必然要求,从国内贸易向国际贸易过渡便成为相关生产部门生死存亡的问题。而金融通过为出口企业提供生产和贸易融资,为出口企业规避出口风险提供便利,以及促进出口企业技术创新等方式,降低企业出口成本,增强产品出口竞争力,从而促进出口扩张,拉动了GDP增长。这就是西方经济学所讲的贸易乘数作用,这种乘数的活力同样来自金融。
第五章论证金融是推动政府支出增长的活力。与美国等发达国家相比,中国的GDP结构中政府支出所占的比重较高。中国居民的高储蓄率以及商业银行的“惜贷”现象,使得大量货币滞留在流通领域之外,造成商品滞销。这种滞留和滞销极不利于我国GDP增长。在此情况下,政府通过发行国债聚集沉淀下来的货币,然后通过公共支出的方式重新投入流通,增加流通中的货币数量,推动了GDP增长;同时,政府通过公共投资工程的辐射作用引导相关行业和配套产业的发展,这样既拉动了这些产业的投资需求,又增加了相关产业从业人员的收入,从而进一步带动消费支出增长。这就是西方经济学所说的政府支出乘数,这种乘数的活力同样也来自金融。总之,金融是推动消费、投资、出口和政府支出增长的活力,而这四种支出直接促进了GDP增长。所以说,金融是推动GDP增长的活力。
The main idea of the essay is to certify that Finance is the dynamic power of the growth of GDP.
The first part, as the general conclusion of the essay identifies that GDP is a concept of flow rate, which is motivated by Finance. What is measured by GDP is that the total value of currency, including the final products and flow of the work in a certain country or area. Since GDP is a rate of flow, the products obtained through working although themselves contain use value,they are the material undertaker of GDP, which needs to be translated into currency through market exchange and then becomes GDP. Further, the currency value of GDP refers to the currency enters the circulation, rather than the currency holden in hand, nor the currency remains in the banking system. The currency not engaged in the circulation cannot be considered as GDP. Carl Marx said that:“Only when the commodities engaged in the circulation, they can be maintained as wealth and commodities, and only they are kept in gold or silver, they can maintain such flowing status.”“If the reserved currency is not eager to circulate, they are metal of worthless, the soul of currency is gone,and they are cirlulated as the ash and dry bones.”Thus, if there is no circulation of goods, there is no GDP, either is the currency.
Dynamic power is the strength of pushing things being active. Finance is the dynamic power of GDP, that is to say, Finance can acitvate the currency and commodities to be revival from inactivity and disuse, and concludes the currency and commodities into circulation and becomes GDP and wealth. The dynamic power of Finance can be seen from daily life. For instance, household purchasing cars and houses through bank loans, it makes the currency maintaining in the banking system reactivated and enters the circulation; it also makes the cars in the factory activated and comes into circulation and makes the citizens travelling convenient and having new houses. Without Finance, currency, houses and cars may remain disuse, and would be inactivate, indynamic and worthless. Thus, as Marx said:“Public loans is one of the most powerful way of primitive accumulation of capital, it waves the wand and gives the currency power of growth and turns into capital.”“Currency Ciculation is the capital out and in. Such useful and effective circulation breathe through the social life and maintain the politic system power and life. People can certainly compare it to the bloody circulation of animals.”Finance can makes the currency being reproductive, this is the dynamic power of Finance; Finance endows the social working new power, and maintains the politic system activate and dynamic, this is the dynamic power of Finance.
The most foundalmental fomulation in macroeconomics is GDP=Y+C+I+G+(X-M) .
The other parts of the dissertation starts from this basic formulation, studying how Finance activates the Consumer Expenditure, Investment Expenditure, Government Expenditure, and growth of Exports, and becomes the motivation of growth of GDP.
The second part of the essay argues that Finance is the dynamic power of growth of Consumer Expenditure. Consumer Expenditure lies the most significant part of GDP, and is the greatest pushing power of the growth of GDP. Finance enhance the consuming tendency, and activate the growth of consuming in an certain country, through providing consumer credit, insurance management and enhance of market liquidity. Consumer credit, as the bridge of future income and current consumption, plays significant role of consumption enhance and growth of GDP. Since the durable consumer goods is effecfed by current income, as well as the level of disposible future income. Thus the consumer credit plays inreplaceable role in the leveling process from the basic daily consumption centered with“clothes and foods”to the consumption mode of“live and travel”. Finance, as the dynamic power of the growth of consumption expenditure, has greatly push the process of automobile financial credit and real estate credit. Those two econimies obtains great correlations with others, thus the development of those two economies, automobile financial credit and real estate credit can certainly drive the development of others, and finally reallize the growth of GDP. This is the Accelerator Principle highlighted in the Western Economics, and such accelerating dynamic comes from Finance.
The third part of the essay point out that Finance is the dynamic power of Investment Expenditure. Investments are the activities of purchasing machines and factories. Companies need large amount of expenditure funds, however, none of the companies would maintain that amount of cash in hand. Thus when the corprates expect that the opportunities investments are coming, they can only collect funds through issuing stocks, funds,or ask for loans from banks. Thus what is before investments is collecting funds. Finance bridge the gap of savement and investment. On one hand, finance can reduce the information costs, provide liquidity to encourage saving and provide financial support for investments. On the other hand, finance can release the restrait of financing of enterprise, reduce financing costs to encourage enterprise investments. Thus Finance is the dynamic power of Investment Expenditure. Thanks to the existence of Finance, currency has got the opportunity of flowing and thus the opportunity of investments, and machines are activated to function in productive activities, workers are activated to have jobs, and final productions are activated to enters the markets as commodities, and thus plourish the trading activities. What has been discussed above is the Multiplier Effect in Western Economics, and the activation of the Multiplier Effect also comes from Finance.
The fourth part of the essay discuss that Finance is the dynamic power of growth of Exports. Exports has great impact of the growth of GDP. Through the 30 years development since Reforming and Open up, China has successfully transformed from farming society to the society of industrial, and pocessed great power of productivity. For reasons, domestic market cannot digest all of those productive ability, and thus exports becomes the solution of over-productivity. And the transition from domestic trades to international economics is matters the existence of productivity departments. As while as proving financing service to export enterprises for trading purpose, the function of risk management also helps to hedge risk, and Finance also improves the Technological Innovation ability of Export Enterprise. By means of that, Finance decrease the exports costs, promote the competition of export products and the growth of the exports. What has been discussed above is the Multiplier Effect of trading in Western Economics, and the activation of the Multiplier Effect also comes from Finance.
The fifth part identifies that Finance is the activation of government expenditure. Compared to the developed countries,such as US, the structure of GDP in China illustrate great part of government expenditure. The phenomenon of high rate of postal saving and of weak willing of issuing loans in commercial banks, makes the currency stay out of circulation and the slow selling items, which have passive impact on the growth of GDP. In such, governments collect sleeping currency and issue public funds and makes it into circulation through government expenditure, increasing the amount of currency in circulation, and thus improves the growth of GDP. Through the radiation effects of public investments and development of counterpart industries. It motivates the investments demands of related industries, increase the incomes of human resource, and thus activate the consuming expenditure. This is the Multiplier Effect of government expenditure in Western Economics, which also comes from Finance.
Overall, Finance is the dynamic power of Consumption, Investment, Exports and Government Expenditure, driving the growth of GDP. Thus Finance is the dynamic power of growth of GDP.
第一章论证GDP是流量,金融是推动GDP增长的活力,作为全文的总论。GDP所度量的是一个国家或地区在一年之内所生产的最终产品和劳务流量的货币总价值。GDP既然是一种流量,那么人们通过劳动生产出来的有用物品虽然本身具有使用价值,也只不过是GDP的物质承担者,必须通过市场交换转化成货币才能成为别人的使用价值,才能进入GDP。另一方面,GDP虽然是货币价值,但不是保留在个人手中的货币,也不是滞留在银行体系中的货币,而是进入流通领域中的货币。不进入流通的货币就不形成GDP。马克思指出:“商品只有当他保持在流通领域的时候,才能作为财富,作为商品保持下来,只有当他硬化为金银的时候,才能保持这种流动状态。”(马克思,1962)“如果储藏货币不是经常渴望流通,它就仅仅是无用的金属,它的货币的灵魂就会离他而去,它将变成流通的灰烬,流通的枯骨。”(马克思,1962)所以,货物不流通不形成GDP,货币不流通也不形成GDP。
所谓活力就是指推动事物活动起来的力量。说金融是推动GDP增长的活力,就是说金融能使处在静止状态下的商品和货币活动起来,使处在流通之外的商品和货币进入流通领域,形成GDP,形成财富。金融所具有的活力在日常生活中是随处可见的。例如,家庭通过银行贷款购买住房和汽车,这就使滞留在银行的货币活动起来,进入流通;这也使滞留在仓库里的汽车有了活力,进入流通,成为人们的交通工具,使闲置的房屋有了活力,进入流通领域,成为人们的住房。如果没有金融,货币、住房和汽车就都处在静止状态,成为无生气、无活力、无价值的东西。所以,马克思指出:“公债成了原始积累的最强有力的手段之一。他像挥动魔杖一样,使不生产的货币具有了生殖力,这样就使它转化为资本。”(马克思,2002)“资本的不断预付和不断流回,就是人们称之为货币流通的东西。这种有用的和有成效的流通,赋予社会的一切劳动以生气,维持政治机体的运动和生命。人们完全有理由把这种流通比作动物躯体内的血液循环。”(马克思,2002)金融能使不生产的货币具有了生殖力,这就是金融所具有的活力;金融能赋予社会的一切劳动以生气,维持政治机体的运动和生命,这就是金融所具有的活力。
宏观经济学中最基本的公式是:GDP=Y=C+I+G+(X-M)。本文第二章到第五章就是从这个最简单的公式出发,研究金融如何促进消费支出、投资支出、出口和政府支出的增加,成为推动GDP增长的活力。
第二章论证金融是推动消费支出增长的活力。消费支出在GDP中所占的比重最大,是推动GDP增长的最大动力。金融通过提供消费信贷、保险管理和提高市场的流动性等方式提高居民的消费倾向,促进一国消费增长。其中,消费信贷为居民的未来收入与现期消费架起一座桥梁,对推动消费升级和GDP增长发挥了极为重要的作用。由于耐用消费品的购买除了受当期收入影响外,更取决于消费者可预支的未来收入水平。所以,在居民的消费结构由以“衣、食”为核心的基本生活消费向以“住、行”为核心的耐用消费升级的过程中,消费信贷发挥了不可替代的促进作用。金融作为推动消费支出增长的活力,极大地推动了汽车和房地产等支柱产业的发展。而这两个行业具有很高的行业关联度,因此汽车和房地产行业的发展又带动了其它行业的发展,最终推动了GDP的增长。这就是西方经济学中所说的加速原理,这种加速的活力来自于金融。
第三章论证金融是推动投资支出增长的活力。投资是企业对机器设备和厂房设备等资本品的购买。企业投资需要巨额货币支出,但任何一家企业都不会在手头上保留巨额现金。所以,当企业预测投资机会来到之时,只能通过发行股票、债券或向银行借款等方式来为投资筹集资金。因此,企业要投资,首先要融资。而金融则在储蓄和投资之间架起一座桥梁,金融通过降低信息成本、提供流动性等方式动员储蓄,为企业投资提供资金支持;同时,金融发展还缓解了企业融资约束、降低了企业融资成本。所以说,金融是推动投资支出增长的活力。正是由于金融的存在,才使货币流动起来,有了生息的机会;才使机器设备流动起来,在生产中发挥作用;才使工人流动起来,有了就业的机会;才使生产出来的商品投入市场,使贸易繁荣;这一切将最终推动GDP增长。这就是西方经济学所讲的乘数原理,这种乘数的活力也是来自金融。
第四章论证金融是推动出口增长的活力。出口对中国GDP增长具有特别重要的意义。经过改革开放以来30多年的发展,我国已成功地完成了由农业国向工业国的转化,形成了巨大的生产能力。但由于种种原因,国内市场无法全部消化掉这些产能,因此出口便成为消化“过剩”产能的必然要求,从国内贸易向国际贸易过渡便成为相关生产部门生死存亡的问题。而金融通过为出口企业提供生产和贸易融资,为出口企业规避出口风险提供便利,以及促进出口企业技术创新等方式,降低企业出口成本,增强产品出口竞争力,从而促进出口扩张,拉动了GDP增长。这就是西方经济学所讲的贸易乘数作用,这种乘数的活力同样来自金融。
第五章论证金融是推动政府支出增长的活力。与美国等发达国家相比,中国的GDP结构中政府支出所占的比重较高。中国居民的高储蓄率以及商业银行的“惜贷”现象,使得大量货币滞留在流通领域之外,造成商品滞销。这种滞留和滞销极不利于我国GDP增长。在此情况下,政府通过发行国债聚集沉淀下来的货币,然后通过公共支出的方式重新投入流通,增加流通中的货币数量,推动了GDP增长;同时,政府通过公共投资工程的辐射作用引导相关行业和配套产业的发展,这样既拉动了这些产业的投资需求,又增加了相关产业从业人员的收入,从而进一步带动消费支出增长。这就是西方经济学所说的政府支出乘数,这种乘数的活力同样也来自金融。总之,金融是推动消费、投资、出口和政府支出增长的活力,而这四种支出直接促进了GDP增长。所以说,金融是推动GDP增长的活力。
The main idea of the essay is to certify that Finance is the dynamic power of the growth of GDP.
The first part, as the general conclusion of the essay identifies that GDP is a concept of flow rate, which is motivated by Finance. What is measured by GDP is that the total value of currency, including the final products and flow of the work in a certain country or area. Since GDP is a rate of flow, the products obtained through working although themselves contain use value,they are the material undertaker of GDP, which needs to be translated into currency through market exchange and then becomes GDP. Further, the currency value of GDP refers to the currency enters the circulation, rather than the currency holden in hand, nor the currency remains in the banking system. The currency not engaged in the circulation cannot be considered as GDP. Carl Marx said that:“Only when the commodities engaged in the circulation, they can be maintained as wealth and commodities, and only they are kept in gold or silver, they can maintain such flowing status.”“If the reserved currency is not eager to circulate, they are metal of worthless, the soul of currency is gone,and they are cirlulated as the ash and dry bones.”Thus, if there is no circulation of goods, there is no GDP, either is the currency.
Dynamic power is the strength of pushing things being active. Finance is the dynamic power of GDP, that is to say, Finance can acitvate the currency and commodities to be revival from inactivity and disuse, and concludes the currency and commodities into circulation and becomes GDP and wealth. The dynamic power of Finance can be seen from daily life. For instance, household purchasing cars and houses through bank loans, it makes the currency maintaining in the banking system reactivated and enters the circulation; it also makes the cars in the factory activated and comes into circulation and makes the citizens travelling convenient and having new houses. Without Finance, currency, houses and cars may remain disuse, and would be inactivate, indynamic and worthless. Thus, as Marx said:“Public loans is one of the most powerful way of primitive accumulation of capital, it waves the wand and gives the currency power of growth and turns into capital.”“Currency Ciculation is the capital out and in. Such useful and effective circulation breathe through the social life and maintain the politic system power and life. People can certainly compare it to the bloody circulation of animals.”Finance can makes the currency being reproductive, this is the dynamic power of Finance; Finance endows the social working new power, and maintains the politic system activate and dynamic, this is the dynamic power of Finance.
The most foundalmental fomulation in macroeconomics is GDP=Y+C+I+G+(X-M) .
The other parts of the dissertation starts from this basic formulation, studying how Finance activates the Consumer Expenditure, Investment Expenditure, Government Expenditure, and growth of Exports, and becomes the motivation of growth of GDP.
The second part of the essay argues that Finance is the dynamic power of growth of Consumer Expenditure. Consumer Expenditure lies the most significant part of GDP, and is the greatest pushing power of the growth of GDP. Finance enhance the consuming tendency, and activate the growth of consuming in an certain country, through providing consumer credit, insurance management and enhance of market liquidity. Consumer credit, as the bridge of future income and current consumption, plays significant role of consumption enhance and growth of GDP. Since the durable consumer goods is effecfed by current income, as well as the level of disposible future income. Thus the consumer credit plays inreplaceable role in the leveling process from the basic daily consumption centered with“clothes and foods”to the consumption mode of“live and travel”. Finance, as the dynamic power of the growth of consumption expenditure, has greatly push the process of automobile financial credit and real estate credit. Those two econimies obtains great correlations with others, thus the development of those two economies, automobile financial credit and real estate credit can certainly drive the development of others, and finally reallize the growth of GDP. This is the Accelerator Principle highlighted in the Western Economics, and such accelerating dynamic comes from Finance.
The third part of the essay point out that Finance is the dynamic power of Investment Expenditure. Investments are the activities of purchasing machines and factories. Companies need large amount of expenditure funds, however, none of the companies would maintain that amount of cash in hand. Thus when the corprates expect that the opportunities investments are coming, they can only collect funds through issuing stocks, funds,or ask for loans from banks. Thus what is before investments is collecting funds. Finance bridge the gap of savement and investment. On one hand, finance can reduce the information costs, provide liquidity to encourage saving and provide financial support for investments. On the other hand, finance can release the restrait of financing of enterprise, reduce financing costs to encourage enterprise investments. Thus Finance is the dynamic power of Investment Expenditure. Thanks to the existence of Finance, currency has got the opportunity of flowing and thus the opportunity of investments, and machines are activated to function in productive activities, workers are activated to have jobs, and final productions are activated to enters the markets as commodities, and thus plourish the trading activities. What has been discussed above is the Multiplier Effect in Western Economics, and the activation of the Multiplier Effect also comes from Finance.
The fourth part of the essay discuss that Finance is the dynamic power of growth of Exports. Exports has great impact of the growth of GDP. Through the 30 years development since Reforming and Open up, China has successfully transformed from farming society to the society of industrial, and pocessed great power of productivity. For reasons, domestic market cannot digest all of those productive ability, and thus exports becomes the solution of over-productivity. And the transition from domestic trades to international economics is matters the existence of productivity departments. As while as proving financing service to export enterprises for trading purpose, the function of risk management also helps to hedge risk, and Finance also improves the Technological Innovation ability of Export Enterprise. By means of that, Finance decrease the exports costs, promote the competition of export products and the growth of the exports. What has been discussed above is the Multiplier Effect of trading in Western Economics, and the activation of the Multiplier Effect also comes from Finance.
The fifth part identifies that Finance is the activation of government expenditure. Compared to the developed countries,such as US, the structure of GDP in China illustrate great part of government expenditure. The phenomenon of high rate of postal saving and of weak willing of issuing loans in commercial banks, makes the currency stay out of circulation and the slow selling items, which have passive impact on the growth of GDP. In such, governments collect sleeping currency and issue public funds and makes it into circulation through government expenditure, increasing the amount of currency in circulation, and thus improves the growth of GDP. Through the radiation effects of public investments and development of counterpart industries. It motivates the investments demands of related industries, increase the incomes of human resource, and thus activate the consuming expenditure. This is the Multiplier Effect of government expenditure in Western Economics, which also comes from Finance.
Overall, Finance is the dynamic power of Consumption, Investment, Exports and Government Expenditure, driving the growth of GDP. Thus Finance is the dynamic power of growth of GDP.
引文
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