中国股票市场促进经济增长研究
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摘要
股票市场产生和发展是中国经济体制改革的重要事件。经过十多年的发展，中国股票市场已经在国民经济中具有举足轻重的地位，对经济增长的促进作用越来越明显。然而，股票市场存在的问题又极大影响到市场功能的发挥，不同程度影响到股票市场运行效率，进而影响到国民经济快速增长。
本文从“中国股票市场是否促进经济增长”这一基本问题出发，在整个研究中，本文不是停留在股票市场和经济增长相关性分析上，而是以此为基础，深入研究经济转轨时期中国股票市场促进经济增长作用的特殊性。理论上，从储蓄、投资和融资机制出发，建立一个基于功能的股票市场作用模型，详细论证了股票市场促进经济增长的作用机理。实证上，对中国股票市场和经济增长关系进行实证分析，从宏观和微观两个角度分别考察了股票市场的具体作用。研究表明，在宏观上，股票市场已经发挥作用，股票市场规模扩张能够促进储蓄向投资的转化；在微观上，上市公司并没有显示出更好的盈利能力，但是整体经营状况要略好于大型企业；特定的股权结构影响到上市公司治理结构，公司治理效率不高，不能改善上市公司绩效；上市公司购并更多是 “保壳”“保配”，不能实现资源优化配置。这些说明，中国股票市场资源配置效率低下。
通过解析中国股票市场宏微观作用差异问题，本文指出制度缺陷是股票市场资源配置效率低下的根源。在发展初期，由于受到初始条件的制约，股票市场制度安排不完全，旧体制因素作用于市场运行，严重弱化了股票市场资源配置功能。中国股票市场选择的是一种跨越式发展模式，并以国家信用代替市场信用、促使股票市场快速发展。随着市场的发展，国家信用越发难以适应市场化、国际化的潮流，强制性变迁的制度缺陷得以放大，从而制度风险产生并强化。
在经济转轨过程中，中国股票市场的产生和发展具有必然性，政府通过股票市场推行的金融支持政策取得了明显的成效。因此，要积极探索提高股票市场促进作用的发展模式，促进股票市场向“规范化、市场化、国际化”方向发展。股票市场在发展模式上要实现从“政府控制型”向“市场取向型”的演进，在功能定位上要实现从“筹资型”向“功能综合型”的演进，在市场目标上要实现从“国有企业服务型”向“国民经济服务型”的演进。
It is important that stock market came into being and got great development in Chinese economic reform. In over 10 years Chinese stock market has held the balance in national economic and had more and more positive effects on economic growth. However, there are still some problems in stock market which block its functions and its running, thus influence national economic growth.
This paper begins with a basic problem "whether stock market associates with economic growth", but not only rests on this relation analyses in the whole research. It focuses on the particularity of positive function of stock market to economic growth in Chinese economic transitional period, which is based on the problem motioned above. In theory, it sets up a model based on functions of stock market to demonstrate the mechanism how the stock market accelerate economic growth from saving, investment and financing mechanism. In empirical aspect, it analysis the relation of stock market and economic growth, reviews the functions of stock market from macro and microcosmic angles. Stock market has made great effects in macro-aspect by promoting the transformation from saving to investment. But in microcosmic aspect, though list companies are in good order as a whole, their profit are no better than others, and the efficiency of cooperate government is low thus could not improve their performance and profit. The purpose of M&A is to ensure list qualification and SPO. So it is hard to optimize resource collocation. As a result, the efficiency of resource collocation in Chinese stock market is low.
From the analyses of the difference of macro and microcosmic function, we can conclude that the source of low efficiency of stock market is institution problem. In the early stage, the institution arrangement of stock market is incomplete because of the limitation of original condition. Some old institutional factors still affected market running, which reduce its running efficiency and thus weaken its function of resource collocation greatly. And the choice of Chinese stock market development is a kind of spanning-model, with national credit substituting for market credit, in order to spur
the development of stock market. With the development of market, it is very difficult for national credit to adapt the trend of market and internationalization. So the institutional shortages of compelling change are blown up, thus institutional risk is came into being and strengthened.
It is inevitable that the stock market came into being and developed quickly in the course of economic transition. The policies to support finance development from stock market by the government gain great achievement obviously. So it is important to try to find out the develop model of stock market which accelerates the economic growth and make the stock market develop normatively and internationally with the request of market. The development model of market should change from government control to market deciding, the function of market should change from raising money to multi-function, and the purpose of stock market should change from serving with SOE to serving with national economy.
本文从“中国股票市场是否促进经济增长”这一基本问题出发，在整个研究中，本文不是停留在股票市场和经济增长相关性分析上，而是以此为基础，深入研究经济转轨时期中国股票市场促进经济增长作用的特殊性。理论上，从储蓄、投资和融资机制出发，建立一个基于功能的股票市场作用模型，详细论证了股票市场促进经济增长的作用机理。实证上，对中国股票市场和经济增长关系进行实证分析，从宏观和微观两个角度分别考察了股票市场的具体作用。研究表明，在宏观上，股票市场已经发挥作用，股票市场规模扩张能够促进储蓄向投资的转化；在微观上，上市公司并没有显示出更好的盈利能力，但是整体经营状况要略好于大型企业；特定的股权结构影响到上市公司治理结构，公司治理效率不高，不能改善上市公司绩效；上市公司购并更多是 “保壳”“保配”，不能实现资源优化配置。这些说明，中国股票市场资源配置效率低下。
通过解析中国股票市场宏微观作用差异问题，本文指出制度缺陷是股票市场资源配置效率低下的根源。在发展初期，由于受到初始条件的制约，股票市场制度安排不完全，旧体制因素作用于市场运行，严重弱化了股票市场资源配置功能。中国股票市场选择的是一种跨越式发展模式，并以国家信用代替市场信用、促使股票市场快速发展。随着市场的发展，国家信用越发难以适应市场化、国际化的潮流，强制性变迁的制度缺陷得以放大，从而制度风险产生并强化。
在经济转轨过程中，中国股票市场的产生和发展具有必然性，政府通过股票市场推行的金融支持政策取得了明显的成效。因此，要积极探索提高股票市场促进作用的发展模式，促进股票市场向“规范化、市场化、国际化”方向发展。股票市场在发展模式上要实现从“政府控制型”向“市场取向型”的演进，在功能定位上要实现从“筹资型”向“功能综合型”的演进，在市场目标上要实现从“国有企业服务型”向“国民经济服务型”的演进。
It is important that stock market came into being and got great development in Chinese economic reform. In over 10 years Chinese stock market has held the balance in national economic and had more and more positive effects on economic growth. However, there are still some problems in stock market which block its functions and its running, thus influence national economic growth.
This paper begins with a basic problem "whether stock market associates with economic growth", but not only rests on this relation analyses in the whole research. It focuses on the particularity of positive function of stock market to economic growth in Chinese economic transitional period, which is based on the problem motioned above. In theory, it sets up a model based on functions of stock market to demonstrate the mechanism how the stock market accelerate economic growth from saving, investment and financing mechanism. In empirical aspect, it analysis the relation of stock market and economic growth, reviews the functions of stock market from macro and microcosmic angles. Stock market has made great effects in macro-aspect by promoting the transformation from saving to investment. But in microcosmic aspect, though list companies are in good order as a whole, their profit are no better than others, and the efficiency of cooperate government is low thus could not improve their performance and profit. The purpose of M&A is to ensure list qualification and SPO. So it is hard to optimize resource collocation. As a result, the efficiency of resource collocation in Chinese stock market is low.
From the analyses of the difference of macro and microcosmic function, we can conclude that the source of low efficiency of stock market is institution problem. In the early stage, the institution arrangement of stock market is incomplete because of the limitation of original condition. Some old institutional factors still affected market running, which reduce its running efficiency and thus weaken its function of resource collocation greatly. And the choice of Chinese stock market development is a kind of spanning-model, with national credit substituting for market credit, in order to spur
the development of stock market. With the development of market, it is very difficult for national credit to adapt the trend of market and internationalization. So the institutional shortages of compelling change are blown up, thus institutional risk is came into being and strengthened.
It is inevitable that the stock market came into being and developed quickly in the course of economic transition. The policies to support finance development from stock market by the government gain great achievement obviously. So it is important to try to find out the develop model of stock market which accelerates the economic growth and make the stock market develop normatively and internationally with the request of market. The development model of market should change from government control to market deciding, the function of market should change from raising money to multi-function, and the purpose of stock market should change from serving with SOE to serving with national economy.
引文
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