我国风能资源最优化开发研究
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摘要
全球气候变暖、环境质量恶化、能源耗竭威胁等一系列紧迫的现实问题,促使世界各国不得不高度关注温室气体排放和全球生态保护,发展低碳经济已成为世界范围的共识。风能作为一种无污染、无排放、可再生的清洁能源资源,不仅在电力生产过程中不消耗化石能源、不产生碳排放,而且可以永续利用自然界蕴含的巨量风能资源,是极具战略价值的新能源资源。与太阳能、生物质能等其他可再生能源相比,风能资源的开发技术最为成熟,是最具商业开发前景的可再生能源资源。
近年来,风能资源的开发己经在世界范围呈现出爆发式增长态势。我国风能资源的开发也已经取得显著成效。除装机容量的突破性增长外,还体现在如下多个方面：决策层对风能资源价值的认识进一步深化,不断出台风电发展规划和风电激励政策；风力发电关键技术取得长足进步,国产风电设备制造企业的竞争力与创新力显著提高；风电市场化进程明显加速,风电比重进一步提高。
但不可否认,我国风电产业的发展还处于规模扩张的初级阶段,还在不断地摸索风电发展规律和适应我国国情的发展模式。风电快速发展的背后,在风电项目选址、投资规模、风电并网、风电场运营、风电价格等多个环节还存在缺陷或隐患。
因此,对存在重要缺陷或隐患的风能资源开发环节展开研究,探索风能资源最优化开发,有助于把握风能资源开发各环节的最优解决策略,对于剖析各环节存在的主要问题及其形成原因具有重要作用。本文梳理了风能资源开发的研究进展,分析了我国风能资源开发与风电产业的发展现状,并以资源配置、资源规划等理论为指导,理清了风能资源开发的主要环节、相互关系及存在问题,并考虑了风能资源开发过程中存在的诸多不确定性,选取风能资源开发的宏观选址、风电项目的最优投资规模、风能资源的最优开发路径等重点环节,研究不确定环境下的最优策略。具体研究内容如下：
(1)研究风能资源储量与电力需求耦合度较差背景下的风电项目最优选址问题。首先,利用GIS技术对风能资源分布图和电力消费区域图进行耦合分析,确定风电项目开发价值较大的若干区域。其次,设计较为完整合理的风电项目选址的指标体系,并通过构建层次分析方法(AHP)与投影寻踪评估法(PPE)的组合模型AHP-PPE对所确定的若干区域的选址价值进行综合评价。
(2)探讨风速与需求双重随机不确定条件下,风电项目建设的最优投资规模问题。根据风力发电技术公式和多随机不确定性理论,建立了一个以运营期内收益最大化为目标函数,以风电装机规模为决策变量,包含服从Weibull分布的风速因素和服从正态分布的电力需求因素的决策模型。运用风险仿真优化软件RiskOptimizer对决策模型进行仿真模拟和算法寻优,并对比分析了单随机约束因素作用下的仿真结果,探讨了不同随机约束因素对仿真结果的灵敏性。
(3)分别从发电量、收益、成本三个方面,研究了技术进步、补贴政策和成本控制三种不确定因素对风能资源开发最优路径及其变动的动态影响。首先利用动态思想处理风能资源开发过程,运用最优控制理论建立了风能资源动态开发模型。其次,分别引入不确定变量,构建了动态开发模型最优问题的Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman方程。最后通过对最优路径及其变动的讨论,研究不确定因素的出现对风能资源开发的影响。
When facing a series of urgent practical problems of global warming, environmental quality degradation, energy depletion threat and etc., countries over the world have to have a high degree of concern about greenhouse gas emissions and global ecological protection and the consensus of the world has been to develop low-carbon economy. Wind energy, as a non-polluting, no-emission, renewable and clean energy resource, not only does not consume fossil fuels and produce carbon emissions in the power production process, but also can make sustainable use of the massive amount of natural wind energy resource. Wind energy, the new energy resource, is of great strategic value. Compared with solar energy, biomass and other renewable energy sources, the development technology of wind energy resource is the most mature and wind energy resource is the most promising renewable energy resource with prospects for commercial development.
In recent years, the development of wind energy resource has been shown in the explosive worldwide growth. And the development of wind energy resource in China has also achieved remarkable results. Except for the growth in installed capacity, China's wind power development is also reflected in the following aspects: decision-makers'awareness of the value of wind energy resource has been further deepened, continually introducing wind power development plan and wind power incentives; wind power has made great progress in key technologies, with competitiveness and innovation of domestic wind power equipment manufacturing enterprises significantly increased; the process of wind power marketing has been accelerated significantly, further increasing the proportion of wind power.
However, it is undeniable that China's wind power industry, which is still in the initial stage of scale expansion, is continually exploring the law of wind power development and the development model adapted to China's national conditions, and there are many defects or hazards behind the rapid development of wind power, such as wind power project site planning, investment scale of wind farms, wind power synchronization rate, wind farms Operation, wind power price.
Therefore, to study the wind energy resource development tache with critical defects or hazards and to explore the wind energy resource development optimization will help to grasp the optimal solution strategy of the various tache of wind energy resource development, and will play an important role in analyzing the main problems in various aspects and their causes. This paper reviews the research progress in the development of wind energy resources, analyzes China's wind energy resource development and wind power industry development, sorts out the main aspects, mutual relations and problems of wind energy resources development under the guide of resource allocation, resource planning and other theories, and takes into account many uncertainties existing in the process of wind energy resource development, by selecting the macro location of wind energy resource development, the optimal wind power project investment scale, the optimal development of wind energy resource and etc., to study the optimal strategies under the uncertainties. Specific research contents are as follows:
(1) The optimal location problem was studied under the background of poor coupling between wind energy resource reserves with the power needs. First of all, coupling analysis was done on wind energy resource distribution and power consumption maps through GIS technology to determine some regions with more development value on wind power project. Then, more complete and rational index system of wind power project location was designed, and the location value of the determined regions was evaluated by the combined model AHP-PPE.
(2) The optimal investment scale of wind power project construction was discussed under the doubly stochastic uncertainties of wind speed and power demand. Based on the wind power technology formula and the theory of multiple random uncertainties, a decision model was founded, which consists of wind speed factor subject to Weibull distribution and power demand factor subject to normal distribution, with income maximization during the operating period as the objective function and wind power installed capacity as the decision variable. Simulation and algorithm optimization of the decision model were conducted with the risk simulation and optimization software RiskOptimizer, then the comparative analysis between the above achieved results with the simulation results under the single random constraints was proceeded, and the sensitivity of different random constraints on the simulation results was discussed.
(3) From three aspects of generating capacity, revenue and costs, the dynamic impact of three uncertainties-technology improvement, subsidies and cost control- on the wind energy resource development was studied. First of all, the process of wind energy resource development was dealt with via dynamic thought, and the dynamic development model of wind energy resource was founded with the use of optimal control theory. Then, Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation of the optimal problem of the dynamic development model was constructed, with uncertain variables introduced. At last, the effect of the emergence of uncertainty on the wind energy resource development was studied through the discussion on the optimal path.
近年来,风能资源的开发己经在世界范围呈现出爆发式增长态势。我国风能资源的开发也已经取得显著成效。除装机容量的突破性增长外,还体现在如下多个方面：决策层对风能资源价值的认识进一步深化,不断出台风电发展规划和风电激励政策；风力发电关键技术取得长足进步,国产风电设备制造企业的竞争力与创新力显著提高；风电市场化进程明显加速,风电比重进一步提高。
但不可否认,我国风电产业的发展还处于规模扩张的初级阶段,还在不断地摸索风电发展规律和适应我国国情的发展模式。风电快速发展的背后,在风电项目选址、投资规模、风电并网、风电场运营、风电价格等多个环节还存在缺陷或隐患。
因此,对存在重要缺陷或隐患的风能资源开发环节展开研究,探索风能资源最优化开发,有助于把握风能资源开发各环节的最优解决策略,对于剖析各环节存在的主要问题及其形成原因具有重要作用。本文梳理了风能资源开发的研究进展,分析了我国风能资源开发与风电产业的发展现状,并以资源配置、资源规划等理论为指导,理清了风能资源开发的主要环节、相互关系及存在问题,并考虑了风能资源开发过程中存在的诸多不确定性,选取风能资源开发的宏观选址、风电项目的最优投资规模、风能资源的最优开发路径等重点环节,研究不确定环境下的最优策略。具体研究内容如下：
(1)研究风能资源储量与电力需求耦合度较差背景下的风电项目最优选址问题。首先,利用GIS技术对风能资源分布图和电力消费区域图进行耦合分析,确定风电项目开发价值较大的若干区域。其次,设计较为完整合理的风电项目选址的指标体系,并通过构建层次分析方法(AHP)与投影寻踪评估法(PPE)的组合模型AHP-PPE对所确定的若干区域的选址价值进行综合评价。
(2)探讨风速与需求双重随机不确定条件下,风电项目建设的最优投资规模问题。根据风力发电技术公式和多随机不确定性理论,建立了一个以运营期内收益最大化为目标函数,以风电装机规模为决策变量,包含服从Weibull分布的风速因素和服从正态分布的电力需求因素的决策模型。运用风险仿真优化软件RiskOptimizer对决策模型进行仿真模拟和算法寻优,并对比分析了单随机约束因素作用下的仿真结果,探讨了不同随机约束因素对仿真结果的灵敏性。
(3)分别从发电量、收益、成本三个方面,研究了技术进步、补贴政策和成本控制三种不确定因素对风能资源开发最优路径及其变动的动态影响。首先利用动态思想处理风能资源开发过程,运用最优控制理论建立了风能资源动态开发模型。其次,分别引入不确定变量,构建了动态开发模型最优问题的Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman方程。最后通过对最优路径及其变动的讨论,研究不确定因素的出现对风能资源开发的影响。
When facing a series of urgent practical problems of global warming, environmental quality degradation, energy depletion threat and etc., countries over the world have to have a high degree of concern about greenhouse gas emissions and global ecological protection and the consensus of the world has been to develop low-carbon economy. Wind energy, as a non-polluting, no-emission, renewable and clean energy resource, not only does not consume fossil fuels and produce carbon emissions in the power production process, but also can make sustainable use of the massive amount of natural wind energy resource. Wind energy, the new energy resource, is of great strategic value. Compared with solar energy, biomass and other renewable energy sources, the development technology of wind energy resource is the most mature and wind energy resource is the most promising renewable energy resource with prospects for commercial development.
In recent years, the development of wind energy resource has been shown in the explosive worldwide growth. And the development of wind energy resource in China has also achieved remarkable results. Except for the growth in installed capacity, China's wind power development is also reflected in the following aspects: decision-makers'awareness of the value of wind energy resource has been further deepened, continually introducing wind power development plan and wind power incentives; wind power has made great progress in key technologies, with competitiveness and innovation of domestic wind power equipment manufacturing enterprises significantly increased; the process of wind power marketing has been accelerated significantly, further increasing the proportion of wind power.
However, it is undeniable that China's wind power industry, which is still in the initial stage of scale expansion, is continually exploring the law of wind power development and the development model adapted to China's national conditions, and there are many defects or hazards behind the rapid development of wind power, such as wind power project site planning, investment scale of wind farms, wind power synchronization rate, wind farms Operation, wind power price.
Therefore, to study the wind energy resource development tache with critical defects or hazards and to explore the wind energy resource development optimization will help to grasp the optimal solution strategy of the various tache of wind energy resource development, and will play an important role in analyzing the main problems in various aspects and their causes. This paper reviews the research progress in the development of wind energy resources, analyzes China's wind energy resource development and wind power industry development, sorts out the main aspects, mutual relations and problems of wind energy resources development under the guide of resource allocation, resource planning and other theories, and takes into account many uncertainties existing in the process of wind energy resource development, by selecting the macro location of wind energy resource development, the optimal wind power project investment scale, the optimal development of wind energy resource and etc., to study the optimal strategies under the uncertainties. Specific research contents are as follows:
(1) The optimal location problem was studied under the background of poor coupling between wind energy resource reserves with the power needs. First of all, coupling analysis was done on wind energy resource distribution and power consumption maps through GIS technology to determine some regions with more development value on wind power project. Then, more complete and rational index system of wind power project location was designed, and the location value of the determined regions was evaluated by the combined model AHP-PPE.
(2) The optimal investment scale of wind power project construction was discussed under the doubly stochastic uncertainties of wind speed and power demand. Based on the wind power technology formula and the theory of multiple random uncertainties, a decision model was founded, which consists of wind speed factor subject to Weibull distribution and power demand factor subject to normal distribution, with income maximization during the operating period as the objective function and wind power installed capacity as the decision variable. Simulation and algorithm optimization of the decision model were conducted with the risk simulation and optimization software RiskOptimizer, then the comparative analysis between the above achieved results with the simulation results under the single random constraints was proceeded, and the sensitivity of different random constraints on the simulation results was discussed.
(3) From three aspects of generating capacity, revenue and costs, the dynamic impact of three uncertainties-technology improvement, subsidies and cost control- on the wind energy resource development was studied. First of all, the process of wind energy resource development was dealt with via dynamic thought, and the dynamic development model of wind energy resource was founded with the use of optimal control theory. Then, Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation of the optimal problem of the dynamic development model was constructed, with uncertain variables introduced. At last, the effect of the emergence of uncertainty on the wind energy resource development was studied through the discussion on the optimal path.
引文
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