农业化肥面源污染治理：技术支持与政策选择
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摘要
农业面源污染是当前中国水环境污染的最大污染源,化肥的大量施用是中国农业面源污染的主要诱因之一。农业化肥面源污染治理对于降低农业面源污染、保持中国农业的可持续发展、建设社会主义新农村具有重要的现实意义。农业化肥面源污染源于农户化肥大量施用和化肥施用技术效率低下,但是,目前国内对于影响中国农户化肥施用技术效率低下的因素,以及如何有效治理农业化肥面源污染缺乏深入系统的研究。鉴于此,本文在借鉴国内外相关理论和经验研究成果的基础上,从实证的角度探讨了以下三个关键性的问题：
(1)哪些因素决定中国农户化肥施用技术效率?当前中国农业政策对中国农户化肥施用技术效率具有怎样的影响?
(2)在农业化肥面源污染治理政策选择中,农户对农业化肥面源污染治理政策具有怎样的接受意愿?
(3)测土配方施肥技术是当前中国正在推广的一项环境友好技术。农户采纳测土配方施肥技术的技术效果如何?哪些因素影响当前中国农户测土配方施肥技术的采纳行为?农户测土配方施肥技术的采纳行为特征对中国农业化肥面源污染治理政策选择具有怎样的影响?
通过对上述三个问题的研究,本文得出了以下主要结论：
(1)化肥价格、农户收入水平、农业劳动力转移和农户的种植规模对中国农户化肥施用技术效率具有正向的影响,而中国农业技术推广体系向农户提供技术支持的低效率是阻碍农户化肥施用技术效率提高的重要原因；在当前中国的农业政策中,有关抑制农资价格上涨的农业政策不利于农户化肥施用技术效率的提高,而促进农民增收、鼓励农地流转和适度规模经营的农业政策对提高农户化肥施用技术效率具有积极的作用。
(2)技术支持政策是农户接受意愿相对较高的农业面源污染治理政策。
(3)现实中实施的推广测土配方施肥技术的政策可以增加农民收入、有效降低农业化肥面源污染,但是农户对测土配方施肥技术的采纳行为受到农户年龄、农户农业收入比重、农户耕地面积、农户所承包耕地的分配形式、农户技术理解能力、农户施肥观念、以及农户技术信息的可获得性等诸多因素的影响,其中,中国农业技术推广体系向农户提供技术支持的低效率是阻碍农户采纳测土配方施肥技术的重要原因之一
总体而言,本研究可能的创新之处在于：
(1)利用随机前沿生产函数方法测算了中国农户小麦和玉米生产中的化肥施用技术效率,并据此分析了影响中国农业化肥施用技术效率的影响因素,从经济学角度揭示了中国农业化肥面源污染的形成机制。
(2)利用选择模型法从农户的接受意愿角度研究了农业面源污染治理的政策选择问题。
(3)利用Bivariate Probit模型分析了中国农户测土配方施肥技术逐步采纳行为的影响因素,探讨了环境政策实施对农户生产行为的影响。
Agricultural non-point source pollution is the main source of water pollution in China. Massive chemical fertilizer application is the main cause of Chinese agricultural non-point source pollution. Therefore, the control of non-point source pollution from agricultural fertilizer application is crucial to the relief of agricultural non-point source pollution, the sustainable development of Chinese agriculture, and the construction of a socialist new countryside.
The non-point source pollution from agricultural fertilizer application derives from exceptionally large amount of use and low technical efficiency of chemical fertilizer. However, only few systematic studies exist on the factors resulting in low technical efficiency and know-how of solving the non-point source pollution from agricultural fertilizer application. Therefore, following critical issues is investigated empirically in this thesis based on national and international associated theories and research achievement.
(1) Which factors determine the technical efficiency of farmer's fertilization in China? What are the effects of the current agricultural policy on the technical efficiency of farmer'fertilization in China?
(2) Which extents of the willingness to accept do farmers have to face the policy against the non-point source pollution from agricultural fertilizer application?
(3) What are the technical results of the soil testing for formulated fertilization, a currently promoting environmental-friendly technology in China? Which factors impact on current farmer's adoptive behavior of the soil testing for formulated fertilization in China?
Following main conclusions can be drawn from works on the above three issues.
1) The change of price for chemical fertilizer, the level of farmers'income, the transfer of rural labor, and the farming scale have positive effect on the technical efficiency of fertilizer application; low efficiency of technical support from the Chinese agriculture extension system is an important reason in impeding the efficiency improvement. Agricultural policies which inhibit the inflation of agricultural materials may not promote the technical efficiency of farmer's fertilization, while the ones that increase farmer's income and encourage the circulation of farmer's land and appropriate size of operation produce a favorable role in promoting technical efficiency.
2) Technical support policy belongs to the farmer's most favorable countermeasure policy against the non-point source pollution from agricultural fertilizer application.
3) Currently promoting environmental-friendly technology increases farmer's income and lowers the non-point source pollution from agricultural fertilizer application. The age of farmer, the proportion of agricultural income, the area of farmer's land, the distribution form of farmer's contracted land, understanding of the technology, concept of fertilization, technical availability have effects on farmer's adoptive behavior of the soil testing for formulated fertilization. Among them, low efficiency of technical support from the agriculture extension system is one of the main causes in preventing farmer's adoptive behavior.
In all, our work, in the first time
1) Utilize Stochastic Frontier Production Function to measure the technical efficiency of fertilizer application in wheat and corn planting, analyze the impact factors on the technical efficiency, and explore the possible mechanism of forming the non-point source pollution from agricultural fertilizer application.
2) Employ choice experiments to investigate the design of countermeasure policy against the non-point source pollution from agricultural fertilizer application based on farmer's willingness to accept.
3) Use Bivariate Probit model to study the factors that affect farmer's adoptive behavior to the soil testing for formulated fertilization; explore the effect of environment policy on farmer's production behavior.
(1)哪些因素决定中国农户化肥施用技术效率?当前中国农业政策对中国农户化肥施用技术效率具有怎样的影响?
(2)在农业化肥面源污染治理政策选择中,农户对农业化肥面源污染治理政策具有怎样的接受意愿?
(3)测土配方施肥技术是当前中国正在推广的一项环境友好技术。农户采纳测土配方施肥技术的技术效果如何?哪些因素影响当前中国农户测土配方施肥技术的采纳行为?农户测土配方施肥技术的采纳行为特征对中国农业化肥面源污染治理政策选择具有怎样的影响?
通过对上述三个问题的研究,本文得出了以下主要结论：
(1)化肥价格、农户收入水平、农业劳动力转移和农户的种植规模对中国农户化肥施用技术效率具有正向的影响,而中国农业技术推广体系向农户提供技术支持的低效率是阻碍农户化肥施用技术效率提高的重要原因；在当前中国的农业政策中,有关抑制农资价格上涨的农业政策不利于农户化肥施用技术效率的提高,而促进农民增收、鼓励农地流转和适度规模经营的农业政策对提高农户化肥施用技术效率具有积极的作用。
(2)技术支持政策是农户接受意愿相对较高的农业面源污染治理政策。
(3)现实中实施的推广测土配方施肥技术的政策可以增加农民收入、有效降低农业化肥面源污染,但是农户对测土配方施肥技术的采纳行为受到农户年龄、农户农业收入比重、农户耕地面积、农户所承包耕地的分配形式、农户技术理解能力、农户施肥观念、以及农户技术信息的可获得性等诸多因素的影响,其中,中国农业技术推广体系向农户提供技术支持的低效率是阻碍农户采纳测土配方施肥技术的重要原因之一
总体而言,本研究可能的创新之处在于：
(1)利用随机前沿生产函数方法测算了中国农户小麦和玉米生产中的化肥施用技术效率,并据此分析了影响中国农业化肥施用技术效率的影响因素,从经济学角度揭示了中国农业化肥面源污染的形成机制。
(2)利用选择模型法从农户的接受意愿角度研究了农业面源污染治理的政策选择问题。
(3)利用Bivariate Probit模型分析了中国农户测土配方施肥技术逐步采纳行为的影响因素,探讨了环境政策实施对农户生产行为的影响。
Agricultural non-point source pollution is the main source of water pollution in China. Massive chemical fertilizer application is the main cause of Chinese agricultural non-point source pollution. Therefore, the control of non-point source pollution from agricultural fertilizer application is crucial to the relief of agricultural non-point source pollution, the sustainable development of Chinese agriculture, and the construction of a socialist new countryside.
The non-point source pollution from agricultural fertilizer application derives from exceptionally large amount of use and low technical efficiency of chemical fertilizer. However, only few systematic studies exist on the factors resulting in low technical efficiency and know-how of solving the non-point source pollution from agricultural fertilizer application. Therefore, following critical issues is investigated empirically in this thesis based on national and international associated theories and research achievement.
(1) Which factors determine the technical efficiency of farmer's fertilization in China? What are the effects of the current agricultural policy on the technical efficiency of farmer'fertilization in China?
(2) Which extents of the willingness to accept do farmers have to face the policy against the non-point source pollution from agricultural fertilizer application?
(3) What are the technical results of the soil testing for formulated fertilization, a currently promoting environmental-friendly technology in China? Which factors impact on current farmer's adoptive behavior of the soil testing for formulated fertilization in China?
Following main conclusions can be drawn from works on the above three issues.
1) The change of price for chemical fertilizer, the level of farmers'income, the transfer of rural labor, and the farming scale have positive effect on the technical efficiency of fertilizer application; low efficiency of technical support from the Chinese agriculture extension system is an important reason in impeding the efficiency improvement. Agricultural policies which inhibit the inflation of agricultural materials may not promote the technical efficiency of farmer's fertilization, while the ones that increase farmer's income and encourage the circulation of farmer's land and appropriate size of operation produce a favorable role in promoting technical efficiency.
2) Technical support policy belongs to the farmer's most favorable countermeasure policy against the non-point source pollution from agricultural fertilizer application.
3) Currently promoting environmental-friendly technology increases farmer's income and lowers the non-point source pollution from agricultural fertilizer application. The age of farmer, the proportion of agricultural income, the area of farmer's land, the distribution form of farmer's contracted land, understanding of the technology, concept of fertilization, technical availability have effects on farmer's adoptive behavior of the soil testing for formulated fertilization. Among them, low efficiency of technical support from the agriculture extension system is one of the main causes in preventing farmer's adoptive behavior.
In all, our work, in the first time
1) Utilize Stochastic Frontier Production Function to measure the technical efficiency of fertilizer application in wheat and corn planting, analyze the impact factors on the technical efficiency, and explore the possible mechanism of forming the non-point source pollution from agricultural fertilizer application.
2) Employ choice experiments to investigate the design of countermeasure policy against the non-point source pollution from agricultural fertilizer application based on farmer's willingness to accept.
3) Use Bivariate Probit model to study the factors that affect farmer's adoptive behavior to the soil testing for formulated fertilization; explore the effect of environment policy on farmer's production behavior.
引文
1枣庄市农业局,枣庄市土肥站：《枣庄市测土配方施肥技术问答》,2009
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