祁连山区出山径流对气候变化的响应研究
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摘要
我国干旱区(包括新疆全境、甘肃河西走廊、青海柴达木盆地及内蒙古贺兰山以西地区)气候干旱、风大沙多,是我国生态环境最为严酷的地区。有水就有绿洲,无水则成荒漠,绿洲兴衰、植被演替咸决于水。然而在近几十年尺度上的水循环变化以及与之相伴随的其他环境变化,其幅度和速率都是空前的,导致水资源在人类-自然之间分配严重失衡,引发出众多的环境问题。如何在干旱区内陆河流域平衡人类需水和自然需水,实现人与自然和谐发展,需要理解区域水资源的量及变化趋势,区域气候模式、流域水文模型、生态系统模型和经济系统模型的综合集成将为这种理解奠定基础。
鉴于此,本文以干旱区的祁连区作为研究区域,分析了其北坡三大流域(疏勒河流域、黑河流域和石羊河流域)上游1960-2000年的气温降水及径流的时间变化趋势,并探讨了径流与气温降水变化的关系；然后,在黑河流域上游应用美国农业部开发的分布式水文模型SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)进行水量平衡的模拟,验证SWAT模型在干旱区内陆河流域的适用性；最后尝试以区域气候模式(RegCM3)的输出数据作为SWAT模型的气象数据库输入数据,进行气候模式-水文模型的松散耦合,探讨以区域气候模式作为SWAT输入数据的可行性。研究可以为内陆河流域生态水文综合集成研究中区域气候模式和流域水文模型的集成提供参考。
本研究主要得出了以下的主要结论·
1)祁连山北坡三个流域的年降水量均有增加的趋势,但其趋势的显著性和变化阶段存在差异；三个流域年均温总体上均有升高的趋势,且趋势均具有显著性,升温的过程表现出很好的一致性；三个流域年出山径流流量的变化趋势不同,有增有减,且变化阶段存在差异；灰色关联分析的结果显示,不同流域的径流量变化与气温降水的关联程度不同。
2) SWAT模型对于基流系数(Alpha_Bf)、气温下降率(Tlaps)、SCS径流曲线数(CN2)、浅层地下水径流系数(Gwqmn)、最大冠层蓄水量(Canmx)和土壤蒸发补偿系数(Esco)具有较高的敏感性：在利用实测的水文数据进行模型参数校准以后,SWAT模型在校准期模拟的模型效率系数为0.75,判定系数为0.86,在验证期的模型效率系数为0.64,判定系数为0.87,表明SWAT模型适用于黑河流域上游。
3)区域气候模式的输出结果与气象实测资料的对比分析结果表明,RegCM3对于气温模拟的模拟效果最好,降水、相对湿度的模拟次之，风速的模拟最差。在利用RegCM3输出作为SWAT模型输入进行径流模拟的模型效率系数为0.29,判定系数为0.69,表明RegCM3和SWAT的耦合不成功,RegCM3的模拟效果需要进一步提高,气象观测数据仍是目前SWAT更有效的输入数据。
The Arid region of China (includes xinjiang province, Hexi Corridor of Gansu province, Qaidam basin and the west of Helan Mountain), with drought climate and strong wind, is the most rigorous region of eco-environmental problems. Vegetation succession and oasis development are controlled by water resource within the region. However, in recent decades, the unprecedented magnitude and rates of water cycle change, along with other environmental changes, lead to serious imbalance between human and natural. In order to balance the water requirements between human and natural, and accomplish sustainable development in inland basin, an integration of regional climate model, basin-scale hydrological model, ecosystem model and economic system model is needed.
In this research, I chose Qilian Mountain in arid region of China as study area to analyze the 40 years (1960-2000) temporal trend of temperature, precipitation and runoff, related works mainly conducted at upper reaches of three inland river, which are Shule river, Heihe river and Shiyang river. After that, I studied the relationship between runoff variation and climate change. Subsequently, the SWAT model was employed to simulate the water balance at upper reach of Heihe river basin. Finally, I tried to coupling climate model with hydrological model, output data of regional climate model (RegCM3) was used as input data of SWAT during this procedure. Since the integration of regional climate model and regional hydrological model is a key issue in studies related to eco-hydrology synthetical research, so this study can provide useful reference for concerned problems.
Some conclusions can be draw from this research:
1) An increasing trend of annual precipitation can be detected at north-facing slopes of all the three basins, but the significances and variation periods are different. In general, mean annual temperature displays a significant increasing trend at three basins. Also, a good consistence of heating can be found. Variation trends and periods of mountainous runoff in these basins are different. Grey relation analysis showed that relationship between changes of runoff and temperature-precipitation are different among basins.
2) SWAT model have high sensitivity for base flow coefficient (Alpha_Bf), the temperature laps rate (Tlaps), SCS runoff curve number (CN2), threshold water level in shallow aquifer for base flow (Gwqmn), the maximum canopy storage capacity (Canmx) and soil evaporation compensation coefficient (Esco). After calibrating the model parameters use observed data, the Nash-Suttcliffe coefficient reached 0.75 and coefficient of determination reaches 0.86 during calibration stage. The Nash-Suttcliffe coefficient and determination coefficient reached 0.64 and 0.87 in validation stage.
3) Comparison between output of regional climate model and observed data showed that, for simulation of temperature, RegCM3 displayed the best performance, following with precipitation and relative humidity, the worst is for the wind speed. Output of RegCM3 was inputted to SWAT model for the simulation of runoff, related Nash-Suttcliffe coefficient and determination coefficient are 0.29 and 0.69, indicated failure of coupling between RegCM3 and SWAT. In future works, improvement of RegCM3 results is needed, meteorological station observed data would still be the better input for SWAT. Keywords:climate change Qilian Mountain upper Heihe River runoff simulation SWAT RegCM3
鉴于此,本文以干旱区的祁连区作为研究区域,分析了其北坡三大流域(疏勒河流域、黑河流域和石羊河流域)上游1960-2000年的气温降水及径流的时间变化趋势,并探讨了径流与气温降水变化的关系；然后,在黑河流域上游应用美国农业部开发的分布式水文模型SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)进行水量平衡的模拟,验证SWAT模型在干旱区内陆河流域的适用性；最后尝试以区域气候模式(RegCM3)的输出数据作为SWAT模型的气象数据库输入数据,进行气候模式-水文模型的松散耦合,探讨以区域气候模式作为SWAT输入数据的可行性。研究可以为内陆河流域生态水文综合集成研究中区域气候模式和流域水文模型的集成提供参考。
本研究主要得出了以下的主要结论·
1)祁连山北坡三个流域的年降水量均有增加的趋势,但其趋势的显著性和变化阶段存在差异；三个流域年均温总体上均有升高的趋势,且趋势均具有显著性,升温的过程表现出很好的一致性；三个流域年出山径流流量的变化趋势不同,有增有减,且变化阶段存在差异；灰色关联分析的结果显示,不同流域的径流量变化与气温降水的关联程度不同。
2) SWAT模型对于基流系数(Alpha_Bf)、气温下降率(Tlaps)、SCS径流曲线数(CN2)、浅层地下水径流系数(Gwqmn)、最大冠层蓄水量(Canmx)和土壤蒸发补偿系数(Esco)具有较高的敏感性：在利用实测的水文数据进行模型参数校准以后,SWAT模型在校准期模拟的模型效率系数为0.75,判定系数为0.86,在验证期的模型效率系数为0.64,判定系数为0.87,表明SWAT模型适用于黑河流域上游。
3)区域气候模式的输出结果与气象实测资料的对比分析结果表明,RegCM3对于气温模拟的模拟效果最好,降水、相对湿度的模拟次之，风速的模拟最差。在利用RegCM3输出作为SWAT模型输入进行径流模拟的模型效率系数为0.29,判定系数为0.69,表明RegCM3和SWAT的耦合不成功,RegCM3的模拟效果需要进一步提高,气象观测数据仍是目前SWAT更有效的输入数据。
The Arid region of China (includes xinjiang province, Hexi Corridor of Gansu province, Qaidam basin and the west of Helan Mountain), with drought climate and strong wind, is the most rigorous region of eco-environmental problems. Vegetation succession and oasis development are controlled by water resource within the region. However, in recent decades, the unprecedented magnitude and rates of water cycle change, along with other environmental changes, lead to serious imbalance between human and natural. In order to balance the water requirements between human and natural, and accomplish sustainable development in inland basin, an integration of regional climate model, basin-scale hydrological model, ecosystem model and economic system model is needed.
In this research, I chose Qilian Mountain in arid region of China as study area to analyze the 40 years (1960-2000) temporal trend of temperature, precipitation and runoff, related works mainly conducted at upper reaches of three inland river, which are Shule river, Heihe river and Shiyang river. After that, I studied the relationship between runoff variation and climate change. Subsequently, the SWAT model was employed to simulate the water balance at upper reach of Heihe river basin. Finally, I tried to coupling climate model with hydrological model, output data of regional climate model (RegCM3) was used as input data of SWAT during this procedure. Since the integration of regional climate model and regional hydrological model is a key issue in studies related to eco-hydrology synthetical research, so this study can provide useful reference for concerned problems.
Some conclusions can be draw from this research:
1) An increasing trend of annual precipitation can be detected at north-facing slopes of all the three basins, but the significances and variation periods are different. In general, mean annual temperature displays a significant increasing trend at three basins. Also, a good consistence of heating can be found. Variation trends and periods of mountainous runoff in these basins are different. Grey relation analysis showed that relationship between changes of runoff and temperature-precipitation are different among basins.
2) SWAT model have high sensitivity for base flow coefficient (Alpha_Bf), the temperature laps rate (Tlaps), SCS runoff curve number (CN2), threshold water level in shallow aquifer for base flow (Gwqmn), the maximum canopy storage capacity (Canmx) and soil evaporation compensation coefficient (Esco). After calibrating the model parameters use observed data, the Nash-Suttcliffe coefficient reached 0.75 and coefficient of determination reaches 0.86 during calibration stage. The Nash-Suttcliffe coefficient and determination coefficient reached 0.64 and 0.87 in validation stage.
3) Comparison between output of regional climate model and observed data showed that, for simulation of temperature, RegCM3 displayed the best performance, following with precipitation and relative humidity, the worst is for the wind speed. Output of RegCM3 was inputted to SWAT model for the simulation of runoff, related Nash-Suttcliffe coefficient and determination coefficient are 0.29 and 0.69, indicated failure of coupling between RegCM3 and SWAT. In future works, improvement of RegCM3 results is needed, meteorological station observed data would still be the better input for SWAT. Keywords:climate change Qilian Mountain upper Heihe River runoff simulation SWAT RegCM3
引文
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