基于脆弱性和适应对策评估的草原畜牧业适应气候变化研究
|
摘要
气候变化影响了大范围的物理/生物系统和人类活动部门,气候变化问题已成为各国、各地区经济社会可持续发展的重要影响因素之一。如何适应气候变化,成为各国、各地区可持续发展的重要议题和重要任务。在世界各地,政府如何规划适应气候变化需要一个过程,而脆弱性评估和适应对策评估是这个过程中的两个关键部分,尤其对于区域或气候敏感性行业适应气候变化研究。
草原畜牧业是草原牧区经济的支柱,也是广大牧民家庭收入的主要来源,在区域国民经济中的作用和地位突出。同时,草原畜牧业是受气候变化影响最敏感和脆弱的部门之一,对人类的食物安全和生活质量将产生深远影响。因此,开展草原畜牧业适应气候变化研究,已成为我国适应气候变化研究和管理中的重要内容,并对我国可持续发展有重大意义。
本文的亮点是构建了一个适用于草原畜牧业对气候变化脆弱性研究的包容性评估框架和指标体系,并基于参与式评估和层次分析法从不同层次、不同机构利益相关方的角度对草原畜牧业应对气候变化的适应对策进行了评估排序。
本论文主要内容包括三部分：
1.草原畜牧业适应气候变化研究进展
本文对当前草原畜牧业适应气候变化的相关研究进行了梳理,分析了目前我国草原畜牧业适应气候变化研究中存在的问题,提出了未来的研究重点,将为草原畜牧业应对气候变化和其可持续发展提供重要支撑。
2.草原畜牧业对气候变化的脆弱性评估
本文采用参与式评估和行动影响矩阵确定了关键的脆弱性因子；使用层次分析法构建了脆弱性评估指标框架；利用脆弱性评估模型计算了内蒙古锡林郭勒草原畜牧业对干旱的脆弱性指数。结果表明：(1)干旱是对草原畜牧业影响最严重和最广泛的气候事件；(2)干旱通过影响草、畜、水等因子,影响牧民生计。而干旱对人体健康的影响往往被利益相关方忽视；(3)畜牧业基础设施差和气候波动大的区域对气候变化更脆弱；(4)在空间尺度和时间尺度上,适应能力的提高都有效降低了草原畜牧业对干旱的脆弱性,适应对策的制定首先要提高适应能力,其次是降低敏感性和暴露度；(5)牧民对气候变化适应能力的提高旨在保障牧民生计和生活质量,可以通过提高牧民收入、改善畜牧业基础设施和补饲能力等来实现。
3.草原畜牧业应对气候变化的适应对策评估
本文采用参与式评估和层次分析法对内蒙古不同层次和机构的利益相关方就草原畜牧业应对气候变化的适应对策优先项问题进行了研究。结果表明：(1)不同利益相关方对适应气候变化的意识已基本形成,但不同利益相关方对适应对策的认知存在差异；(2)适应对策必须依靠有力、完善的制度和政策；(3)适应的前提是保障牧民的生计和生活质量；(4)政府及研究机构应作为适应主体帮助牧民适应气候变化；(5)应评估区域和气候敏感性政策,适时修改和完善适应对策；(6)需要采取一些预防性措施和更多具体的、实际的适应措施；(7)加强对牧民适应性概念、气象知识和生产管理的培训。
Climate change has already impacted upon a large range of physical/biological systems and sectors of human activity, it has become one of the important factors in the process of the national or regional economic and social sustainable development. How to adapt to climate change has become the important issue and task of a national or regional sustainable development. All over the world, governments need a process for planning how to adapt to climate change. Vulnerability assessment and adaptive strategy assessment are two crucial step in climate change adaptation research for regions or climate sensitive industries.
Grassland husbandry is the backbone of the pasturing area economy, but also is the main household income source of the majority herdsmen, it has the important role and status in the national economy of region. Meanwhile, grassland husbandry is one of the most sensitive and vulnerable sectors affected by climate change, it will has a profound impact for human food safety and quality of life. Therefore, study on grassland husbandry to adapt to climate change has become an important content of the research and management on adaptation of climate change in China, and it has the greatest signifiance to sustainable development of China.
The highlight of this article is that constructed an inclusive vulnerability assessment framework and indicators system in the research of grassland husbandry to climate change, assessed and sorted the adaptive strategies of grassland husbandry to adapt to climate change from the perspective of stakeholders at different levels and organizations based on the Participitating Assessment and Analytic Hierarchy Process.
This artical includes three parts:
1. The review of grassland husbandry to adapt to climate change
This article overviews the current research of grassland husbandry to adapt to climate change and climate change adaption science, analyzes and presents the issues of current research and future research emphases in China. This paper will providing the important support for grassland husbandry to coping for climate change and its sustainable development.
2. Vulnerability assessment of grassland husbandry to climate change
This paper adopts the Participating Assessment and Action Impact Matrix to identify the key vulnerability factors. And then we build up the indicator calsses of vulnerability assessment employing the Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology. With the assessment model, we calculate the vulnerability index, which reveals the vulnerability of grassland livestock industry to drought in Xilingol, Inner Mongolia. The results are as following:1) Drought is the most critical climate hazard, inciting serious and vast impact on grassland livestock industry;2) Drought has detrimental impacts on herdsmen's livelihood because it deteriorates the supplies of grass, livestock, and water in pastoral areas. Unfortunately, the effect of drought on human being's health is always ignored by stakeholders;3) The areas with poor husbandry infrastructure and intense climatic fluctuation are more vulnerable to climate change;4) The improving adaptive capacity is mainly responsible for the reduction of the vulnerability of grassland livestock industry to climate change in both spatial and temporal scales. The promotion of adaptive capacity is prior to the reductions of both sensitivity and exposure in terms of adaptation strategies to climate change;5) The promotion of adaptive capacity aims to guarantee herdsmen's livelihood through increasing herdsmen's economic income, improving the husbandry infrastructure, and enhancing the capacity of supplementary feeding, etc..
3. Adaptive strategies assessment of grassland husbandry to adapt to climate change
This paper employs the methods of Participitating Assessment and Analytic Hierarchy Process to study the adaptation strategies of grassland livestock industry to climate change on different levels and institutions stakeholders in Inner Mongolia. By sorting, assessment and contrast the adaptation strategies are proposed by different stakeholders, we think,1) The awareness of different stakeholders on adapting to climate change have been basically formed, but the cognition of adaptive strategy on different stakeholders that have some differences;2) Adaptation strategies must rely on sound and right system and policies;3) The precondition of adaptation is to guarantee the livelihoods and life quality of herdsmen;4) Government authorities and research institutions should be as the main body to help herdsmen adapting to climate change;5) Regional and climate sensitivity policies should be evaluated, modify and improve the adaptation strategies in timely;6) Need to take some preventive measures and more specific, practical adaptation measures;7) Strengthen the training of adaptation concept, meteorological knowledge and production management to herdsmen.
草原畜牧业是草原牧区经济的支柱,也是广大牧民家庭收入的主要来源,在区域国民经济中的作用和地位突出。同时,草原畜牧业是受气候变化影响最敏感和脆弱的部门之一,对人类的食物安全和生活质量将产生深远影响。因此,开展草原畜牧业适应气候变化研究,已成为我国适应气候变化研究和管理中的重要内容,并对我国可持续发展有重大意义。
本文的亮点是构建了一个适用于草原畜牧业对气候变化脆弱性研究的包容性评估框架和指标体系,并基于参与式评估和层次分析法从不同层次、不同机构利益相关方的角度对草原畜牧业应对气候变化的适应对策进行了评估排序。
本论文主要内容包括三部分：
1.草原畜牧业适应气候变化研究进展
本文对当前草原畜牧业适应气候变化的相关研究进行了梳理,分析了目前我国草原畜牧业适应气候变化研究中存在的问题,提出了未来的研究重点,将为草原畜牧业应对气候变化和其可持续发展提供重要支撑。
2.草原畜牧业对气候变化的脆弱性评估
本文采用参与式评估和行动影响矩阵确定了关键的脆弱性因子；使用层次分析法构建了脆弱性评估指标框架；利用脆弱性评估模型计算了内蒙古锡林郭勒草原畜牧业对干旱的脆弱性指数。结果表明：(1)干旱是对草原畜牧业影响最严重和最广泛的气候事件；(2)干旱通过影响草、畜、水等因子,影响牧民生计。而干旱对人体健康的影响往往被利益相关方忽视；(3)畜牧业基础设施差和气候波动大的区域对气候变化更脆弱；(4)在空间尺度和时间尺度上,适应能力的提高都有效降低了草原畜牧业对干旱的脆弱性,适应对策的制定首先要提高适应能力,其次是降低敏感性和暴露度；(5)牧民对气候变化适应能力的提高旨在保障牧民生计和生活质量,可以通过提高牧民收入、改善畜牧业基础设施和补饲能力等来实现。
3.草原畜牧业应对气候变化的适应对策评估
本文采用参与式评估和层次分析法对内蒙古不同层次和机构的利益相关方就草原畜牧业应对气候变化的适应对策优先项问题进行了研究。结果表明：(1)不同利益相关方对适应气候变化的意识已基本形成,但不同利益相关方对适应对策的认知存在差异；(2)适应对策必须依靠有力、完善的制度和政策；(3)适应的前提是保障牧民的生计和生活质量；(4)政府及研究机构应作为适应主体帮助牧民适应气候变化；(5)应评估区域和气候敏感性政策,适时修改和完善适应对策；(6)需要采取一些预防性措施和更多具体的、实际的适应措施；(7)加强对牧民适应性概念、气象知识和生产管理的培训。
Climate change has already impacted upon a large range of physical/biological systems and sectors of human activity, it has become one of the important factors in the process of the national or regional economic and social sustainable development. How to adapt to climate change has become the important issue and task of a national or regional sustainable development. All over the world, governments need a process for planning how to adapt to climate change. Vulnerability assessment and adaptive strategy assessment are two crucial step in climate change adaptation research for regions or climate sensitive industries.
Grassland husbandry is the backbone of the pasturing area economy, but also is the main household income source of the majority herdsmen, it has the important role and status in the national economy of region. Meanwhile, grassland husbandry is one of the most sensitive and vulnerable sectors affected by climate change, it will has a profound impact for human food safety and quality of life. Therefore, study on grassland husbandry to adapt to climate change has become an important content of the research and management on adaptation of climate change in China, and it has the greatest signifiance to sustainable development of China.
The highlight of this article is that constructed an inclusive vulnerability assessment framework and indicators system in the research of grassland husbandry to climate change, assessed and sorted the adaptive strategies of grassland husbandry to adapt to climate change from the perspective of stakeholders at different levels and organizations based on the Participitating Assessment and Analytic Hierarchy Process.
This artical includes three parts:
1. The review of grassland husbandry to adapt to climate change
This article overviews the current research of grassland husbandry to adapt to climate change and climate change adaption science, analyzes and presents the issues of current research and future research emphases in China. This paper will providing the important support for grassland husbandry to coping for climate change and its sustainable development.
2. Vulnerability assessment of grassland husbandry to climate change
This paper adopts the Participating Assessment and Action Impact Matrix to identify the key vulnerability factors. And then we build up the indicator calsses of vulnerability assessment employing the Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology. With the assessment model, we calculate the vulnerability index, which reveals the vulnerability of grassland livestock industry to drought in Xilingol, Inner Mongolia. The results are as following:1) Drought is the most critical climate hazard, inciting serious and vast impact on grassland livestock industry;2) Drought has detrimental impacts on herdsmen's livelihood because it deteriorates the supplies of grass, livestock, and water in pastoral areas. Unfortunately, the effect of drought on human being's health is always ignored by stakeholders;3) The areas with poor husbandry infrastructure and intense climatic fluctuation are more vulnerable to climate change;4) The improving adaptive capacity is mainly responsible for the reduction of the vulnerability of grassland livestock industry to climate change in both spatial and temporal scales. The promotion of adaptive capacity is prior to the reductions of both sensitivity and exposure in terms of adaptation strategies to climate change;5) The promotion of adaptive capacity aims to guarantee herdsmen's livelihood through increasing herdsmen's economic income, improving the husbandry infrastructure, and enhancing the capacity of supplementary feeding, etc..
3. Adaptive strategies assessment of grassland husbandry to adapt to climate change
This paper employs the methods of Participitating Assessment and Analytic Hierarchy Process to study the adaptation strategies of grassland livestock industry to climate change on different levels and institutions stakeholders in Inner Mongolia. By sorting, assessment and contrast the adaptation strategies are proposed by different stakeholders, we think,1) The awareness of different stakeholders on adapting to climate change have been basically formed, but the cognition of adaptive strategy on different stakeholders that have some differences;2) Adaptation strategies must rely on sound and right system and policies;3) The precondition of adaptation is to guarantee the livelihoods and life quality of herdsmen;4) Government authorities and research institutions should be as the main body to help herdsmen adapting to climate change;5) Regional and climate sensitivity policies should be evaluated, modify and improve the adaptation strategies in timely;6) Need to take some preventive measures and more specific, practical adaptation measures;7) Strengthen the training of adaptation concept, meteorological knowledge and production management to herdsmen.
引文
[1]郑新奇,姚慧,王筱明.20世纪90年代以来《Science》关于全球气候变化研究述评[J].生态环境,2005,14(3)：422-42.
[2]IPCC. Climate change:the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.2007. Accessed from http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wgl.html.
[3]秦大河.进入21世纪的气候变化科学——气候变化的事实、影响与对策[J].科技导报,2007,04.
[4]秦大河,罗勇,陈振林,等.气候变化科学的最新进展：IPCC第四次评估综合报告解析[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(6)：311-314.
[5]潘家华,郑艳.适应气候变化的分析框架及政策涵义[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(10)：1-5.
[6]周广胜,许振柱,王玉辉.全球变化的生态系统适应[J].地球科学进展,2004,19(4)：642-639.
[7]沈莎莎,高群,陈爽,等.全球变化下的适应性及其研究进展[J].环境科学与技术,2012,35(12J)：166-173.
[8]郑艳,潘家华,廖茂林.适应规划：概念、方法学及案例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(3)：132-139.
[9]Piao SL, Ciais P, Huang Y, et al., The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China[J]. Nature,2010,467:43-51.
[10]尹燕亭,侯向阳,运向军.气候变化对内蒙古草原生态系统影响的研究进展[J].草业科学,2011,28(6)：1132-1139.
[11]杨劫,赵立清.内蒙古草原生态环境保护与建设[J].内蒙古草业,2012,24(4)：1-5.
[12]王明玖,张存厚.内蒙古草地气候变化及畜牧业的影响分析[J].内蒙古草业,2013,25(1)：5-12.
[13]尤莉,许吟隆,荀学义PRECIS模拟对内蒙古气候变化情景的模拟与分析[J].内蒙古气象,2009(4)：3-6.
[14]张存厚,王明玖,李兴华,等.近30年来内蒙古地区气候干湿状况时空分布特征[J].干旱区 资源与环境,2011,25(8)：70-75.
[15]Dong SK, Lu W, Liu SL, et al. Vulnerability of Worldwide Pastoralism to Global Changes and Interdisciplinary Strategies for Sustainable Pastoralism[J]. Ecology and Society, 2011,16(2):10. [online] URL:http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss2/art10/.
[16]Liu ShuLin, Wang Tao. Climate change and local adaptation strategies in the middle Inner Mongolia, northern China[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences,2012,66:1449-1458.
[17]达林太,郑易生.牧区与市场：牧民经济学[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社.2010.
[18]欧英娟,彭晓春,周健,等.气候变化对生态系统脆弱性的影响及其应对措施[J].环境科学与管理,2012,37(12)：136-141.
[19]李光鹏,李俊龙,旭日干.北方草原牧业发展现状与草原生态畜牧业发展研究初报[J].内蒙古大学学报·自然科学版,2013,44(4)：435-440.
[1]IPCC. Climate Change, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the ThirdAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [R]. McCarthy J J, Canziani O F, Leary N A,et al. eds Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press,2001,1032.
[2]秦大河.进入21世纪的气候变化科学—气候变化的事实、影响与对策[J].科技导报,2007,04.
[3]徐冠华,葛全胜,宫鹏,等.全球变化和人类可持续发展：挑战与对策[J].科学通报,2013,58(21)：2100-2016.
[4]IPCC. Climate change:the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[R].2007, Accessed from http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.html.
[5]林而达,许吟隆,蒋金荷,等.气候变化国家评估报告(II)：气候变化的影响与适应[J].气候变化研究进展,2006,2(2)：51-56.
[6]崔胜辉,李旋旗,李扬,等.全球变化背景下的适应性研究综述[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(9)：1088-1098.
[7]沈莎莎,高群,陈爽,等.全球变化下的适应性及其研究进展[J].环境科学与技术,2012,35(12)：166-173.
[8]周广胜,许振柱,王玉辉.全球变化的生态系统适应性[J].地球科学进展,2004,19(4)：642-639.
[9]潘家华,郑艳.适应气候变化的分析框架及政策涵义[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(10)：1-5.
[10]周景博,冯相昭.适应气候变化的认知与政策评价[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(7)：57-61.
[11]郑艳,潘家华,廖茂林.适应规划：概念、方法学及案例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(3)：132-139.
[12]纪晓婷,齐顾波.论气候变化的适应[J].宏观经济,2013,13：71-73.
[13]Piao SL, Ciais P, Huang Y, et al. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China[J]. Nature,2010,467:43-51.
[14]尤莉,许吟隆,荀学义PRECIS模拟对内蒙古气候变化情景的模拟与分析[J].内蒙古气象,2009,(4)：3-6.
[15]张存厚,王明玖,李兴华,等.近30年来内蒙古地区气候干湿状况时空分布特征[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(8)：70-75.
[16]Liu ShuLin, Wang Tao. Climate change and local adaptation strategies in the middle Inner Mongolia, northern China[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences,2012,66:1449-1458.
[17]韩芳,刘朋涛,牛建明,等.50a来内蒙古荒漠草原气候干燥度的空间分布及其演变特[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(3)：449-456.
[18]尹燕亭,侯向阳,运向军.气候变化对内蒙古草原生态系统影响的研究进展[J].草业科学,2011,28(6)：1132-1139.
[19]杨劫,赵立清.内蒙古草原生态环境保护与建设[J].内蒙古草业,2012,24(4)：1-5.
[20]王明玖,张存厚.内蒙古草地气候变化及畜牧业的影响分析[J].内蒙古草业,2013,25(1)：5-12.
[21]达林太,郑易生.牧区与市场：牧民经济学[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2010.
[22]李光鹏,李俊龙,旭日干.北方草原牧业发展现状与草原生态畜牧业发展研究初报[J].内蒙古大学学报·自然科学版,2013,44(4)：435-440.
[23]任继周,侯扶江,胥刚.草原文化的保持与传承[J].草业科学,2010,27(12)：5-10.
[24]任继周.草原文化是华夏文化的活泼元素[J].草业学报,2010,19(1)：1-5.
[25]李维薇,黄涛.草原牧区新希望[J].草业科学,2013,30(5)：663-664.
[26]李文军,张倩.解读草原困境——对于干旱半干旱草原利用和管理若干问题的认识[M].北京：经济科学出版社,2009.
[27]Thornton P, Herrero M, Freeman A, et al. Vulnerability, climate change and livestock-research opportunities and challenges for poverty alleviation. SAT eJournal.2007,4(1): 1-23. ejournal.icrisat.org.
[28]牛建明.气候变化对内蒙古草原分布和生产力影响的预测研究[J].草地学报,2001,9(4)：277-282.
[29]牛建明.基于气候的植被空间分布的数字模拟—以内蒙古为例[J].生态学报,2001,21(7)： 1064-1071.
[30]Bai YF, Wu JG, Xing Q, et al. Primary Production and Rain use efficiency across precipitation gradient on the Mongolia plateau[J]. Ecology,2008,89(8):2140-2153.
[31]Nardone A, Ronchi B, Lacetera N, et al. Effects of climate changes on animal production and sustainability of livestock systems[J]. Livestock Science,2010,130:57-69.
[32]Seo S Niggol, Bruce McCarl. Managing Livestock Species under Climate Change in Australia[J]. Animals,2011,1:343-365.
[33]Qi JG, Chen JQ, Wan SQ, et al. Understanding the coupled natural and human systems in Dryland East Asia[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2012,7:1-7.
[34]丁勇,侯向阳,Leonid Ubugunov,等.温带草原区气候变化及其对植被影响的研究进展[J].中国农学通报,2012,28(17)：310-316.
[35]Dixon RK, Smith J, Guill S. Liff on the edge:vulnerability and adaptation of african ecosystems to global climate change[J]. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,2003,8:93-113.
[36]Hahn MB, Riederer AM, Foster SO. The livelihood vulnerability index:A pragmatic approach to assessing risks from climate variability and change:A case study in Mozambique[J]. Global Environmental Change,2009,19:74-88.
[37]Kabubo-Mariara Jane. Global warming and livestock husbandry in Kenya:Impacts and adaptations[J]. Ecological Economics,2009,68:1915-1924.
[38]Nelson R, Kokic P, Crimp S, et al. The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change:Part I. Conceptualising and measuring vulnerability [J]. Environmental Science & Policy,2010,13:8-17.
[39]Dong SK, Lu W, Liu SL, et al. Vulnerability of Worldwide Pastoralism to Global Changes and Interdisciplinary Strategies for Sustainable Pastoralism[J]. Ecology and Society, 2011,16(2):10. [online] URL:http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss2/art10/.
[40]Fraser EDG, Dougill AJ, Hubacek K, et al. Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Dryland Livelihood Systems:Conceptual Challenges and Interdisciplinary Solutions[J]. Ecology and Society,2011,16:3. [online] URL:http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-03402-160303.
[41]Lindsey C, Michael BC, James EE, et al. Vulnerability of the Asian typical steppe to grazing and cliamte change[J]. Climatic Change,2004,63:351-368.
[42]Seo S Niggol, Mendelsohn Robert O. Climate Change Impacts on Animal Husbandry in Africa:A Ricardian Analysis (June 1,2007)[R]. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No.4261.2007. Available at SSRN:http://ssrn.com/abstract=996167.
[43]Cobon DH, Stone GS, Carter JO, et al. The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia[J]. The Rangeland Journal,2009,31:31-49.
[44]Klaus BB, Ingrid KK, Han XG. Steppe ecosystems and climate and land-use changes — vulnerability, feedbacks and possibilities for adaptation[J]. Plant Soil,2011,340:1-6.
[45]Thorpe Jeff. Vulnerability of Prairie Grasslands to Climate Change. Prepared for Prairies Regional Adaptation Collaborative[R]. Saskatchewan Research Council,2011, Publication No.12855-2E11,
[46]Nori Michele, Davies Jonathan. Change of wind or wind of change? Climate change, adaptation and pastoralism[R]. Prepared for the World Initiative for Sustainable Pastoralism. IUCN, Nairobi,2007.
[47]Jesper Stage. Economic valuation of climate change adaptation in developing countries[J]. Annals of the New York academy of sciences,2010,1185:150-163.
[48]Kabubo-Mariara Jane. Climate change adaptation and livestock activity choices in Kenya:An economic analysis[J]. Natural Resources Forum,2008,32:131-141.
[49]郑新奇,姚慧,王筱明.20世纪90年代以来《Science》关于全球气候变化研究述评[J].生态环境,2005,14(3)：422-42.
[50]於刑,曹明奎,陶波,等.基于潜在植被的中国陆地生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性定量评[J].植物生态学报,2008,32(3)：521-530.
[51]李双成,吴绍洪,戴尔阜.生态系统响应气候变化脆弱性的人工神经网络模型评价[J].生态学报,2005,25(3)：621-626.
[52]李克让,曹明奎,於琍,等.中国自然生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性评估[J].地理研究,2005,24(5)：653-663.
[53]吴绍洪,戴尔阜,黄玫,等.21世纪未来气候变化情景(B2)下我国生态系统的脆弱性研究[J].科学通报,2007,52(7)：811-817.
[54]欧英娟,彭晓春,周健,等.气候变化对生态系统脆弱性的影响及其应对措施[J].环境科学与管理,2012,37(12)：136-141.
[55]谭英,奉志伟,牛宝亮,等.气候变化背景下的农牧交错区村民认知与应对行为调查分析[J]. 中国农学通报,2009,25(23)：413-419.
[56]丁勇,牛建明,侯向阳,等.基于可持续发展评价的家庭牧场生产经营分异研究[J].草业科学,2010,27(11)：151-158.
[57]王海,侯向阳,秦艳,等.阿拉善荒漠区牧民对气候变化的感知及应对措施初探—以阿拉善左旗和阿拉善右旗为例[J].草业科学,2011,28(9)：1718-1723.
[58]韩颖,侯向阳.内蒙古荒漠草原牧户对气候变化的感知和适应[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(4)：913-922.
[59]侯向阳,韩颖.内蒙古典型地区牧户气候变化感知与适应的实证研究[J].地理研究,2011,30(10)：1753-1764.
[60]李西良,侯向阳,丁勇,等.北方草原牧民对极端干旱感知的季节敏感性研究[J].农学学报,2012,2(10)：26-31.
[61]陈伟娜,闫慧敏,黄河清.气候变化压力下锡林郭勒草原牧民生计与可持续能力[J].资源科学,2013,35(5)：1075-1083.
[62]何晓蕾,刘通,赵萌莉,等.荒漠草原适应气候变化措施分析[J].畜牧与饲料科学,2013,34(5)：51-53.
[63]何欣,牛建明,郭晓川,等.典型草原家庭牧场草地资源利用分异机制及管理策略研究[J].草业学报,2013,22(4)：257-265.
[64]李西良,侯向阳,Leonid Ubugunov,等.气候变化对家庭牧场复合系统的影响及其牧民适应[J].草业学报,2013,1(22)：148-156.
[65]刘华民,王立新,杨劫,等.农牧民气候变化适应意愿及影响因素——以鄂尔多斯市乌审旗为例[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(1)：89-95.
[66]张倩.牧民应对气候变化的社会脆弱性—以内蒙古荒漠草原的一个嘎查为例[J].社会学研究,2011,6：171-195.
[67]苏浩.气候变化与牧民脆弱性[J].广播电视大学学报,2013,1：8-11.
[68]Fu Y, Grumbine RE, Wilkes A, et al. Climate Change Adaptation Among Tibetan Pastoralists: Challenges in Enhancing Local Adaptation Through Policy Support[J]. Environmental management,2012,50:607-621.
[69]Li Wenjun, Huntsinger Lynn. China's grassland contract policy and its impacts on herder ability to benefit in Inner Mongolia:tragic feedbacks [J]. Ecology and Society,2011,16(2):1. [online] URL:http://www. ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss2/artl/.
[70]Li WJ, Ali SH, Zhang Q. Property rights and grassland degradation:A study of the Xilingol Pasture, Inner Mongolia, China[J]. Journal of Environment Management,2007,85:46-470.
[71]刘燕华,钱凤魁,王文涛,等.应对气候变化的适应技术框架研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(5)：1-6.
[72]李瑛,康德颜,齐二石.政策评估的利益相关者模式及其应用研究[J].科研管理,2006,27(2)：51-56.
[73]李鸥.参与式发展研究与实践方法[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2010.
[74]赵艳霞,何磊,刘寿东,等.农业生态系统脆弱性评价方法[J].生态学杂志,2007,26(5)：754-758.
[75]马定国,刘影,陈洁,等.鄱阳湖区洪灾风险与农户脆弱性分析[J].地理学报,2007,62(3)：321-332.
[76]郝璐,王静爱,史培军,等.草地畜牧业雪灾脆弱性评价—以内蒙古牧区为例[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(2)：51-57.
[77]郝璐,王静爱,张化.内蒙古草地畜牧业系统旱灾风险评价模型[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2008,16(2)：414-423.
[78]Wu JD, Li N, Yang HJ, et al. Risk evaluation of heavy snow disasters using BP artificial neural network:the case of Xilingol in Inner Mongolia[J]. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess, 2008,22:719-725.
[1]IPCC. Climate Change 2001, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the ThirdAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [R]. McCarthy J J, Canziani O F, Leary N A,et al. eds Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press,2001.1032.
[2]IPCC. Climate change:the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[R].2007. Accessed from http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wgl.htm.
[3]Nelson R, Kokic P, Crimp S, et al. The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change:Part I — Conceptualising and measuring vulnerability [J]. Environmental Science & Policy,2010.13:8-17.
[4]李鹤,张平宇,程叶青.脆弱性的概念及其评价方法[J].地理科学进展,2008,27(2)：18-25.
[5]於琍,曹明奎,陶波,等.基于潜在植被的中国陆地生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性定量评价[J].植物生态学报,2008,32(3)：521-530.
[6]欧英娟,彭晓春,周健,等.气候变化对生态系统脆弱性的影响及其应对措施[J].环境科学与管理,2012,37(12)：136-141.
[7]沈莎莎,高群,陈爽,等.全球变化下的适应性及其研究进展[J].环境科学与技术,2012,35(12)：166-173.
[8]Kelly PM, Adger WN. Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation[J]. Climatic Change,2000,47:325-352.
[9]Eakin H, Luers AL. Assessing the Vulnerability of Social-Environmental Systems[J]. Annual Review Environment Resources,2006,31:365-394.
[10]Ford JD, Smit B, Wandel J. Vulnerability to climate change in the Arctic:A case study from Arctic Bay, Canada[J]. Global Environmental Change,2006,16:145-160.
[11]Adger W N. Vulnerability [J]. Global Environmental Change,2006,16:268-281.
[12]Fussel HM. Vulnerability:A generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research[J]. Global Environmental Change,2007,17:155-167.
[13]Hahn MB, Riederer AM, Foster SO. The livelihood vulnerability index:a pragmatic approach to assessing risks from climate variability and change - a case study in Mozambique[J]. Global Environmental Chang,2009,19(1):74-88.
[14]Dong SK, Lu W, Liu SL, et al.. Vulnerability of Worldwide Pastoralism to Global Changes and Interdisciplinary Strategies for Sustainable Pastoralism[J]. Ecology and Society, 2011,16(2):10. [online] URL:http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss2/art10/.
[15]Khan S. Vulnerability assessments and their planning implications:a case study of the Hutt Valley, New Zealand[J]. Natural Hazards,2012,64:1587-1607.
[16]Pandey R, Jha SK. Climate vulnerability index — measure of climate change vulnerability to communities:a case of rural Lower Himalaya, India[J]. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,2012,17:487-506.
[17]Birkmannn J. eds. Measuring Vulnerability to Hazards of National Origin[M]. Tokyo:UNU Press,2006.
[18]方修琦,殷培红.弹性、脆弱性和适应——HDP三个核心概念综述[J].地理科学进展,2007,26(5)：11-22.
[19]Fraser EDQ Dougill AJ, Hubacek K, et al. Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Dryland Livelihood Systems:Conceptual Challenges and Interdisciplinary Solutions [J]. Ecology and Society,2011,16(3):3. [online] URL:http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-03402-160303.
[20]Reidsma P, Ewert F. Regional Farm Diversity Can Reduce Vulnerability of Food Production to Climate Change[JJ. Ecology and Society,2008,13(1):38. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art38/.
[21]郝璐,王静爱,史培军,等.草地畜牧业雪灾脆弱性评价—以内蒙古牧区为例[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(2)：51-57.
[22]李克让,曹明奎,於琍,等.中国自然生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性评估[J].地理研究,2005,24(5)：653-663.
[23]徐广才,康慕谊,贺丽娜,等.生态脆弱性及其研究进展[J].生态学报,2009,29(5)：2578-2588.
[24]吴绍洪,戴尔阜,黄玫,等.21世纪未来气候变化情景(B2)下我国生态系统的脆弱性研究[J].科学通报,2007,52(7)：811-817.
[25]赵慧霞,吴绍洪,姜鲁光.自然生态系统响应气候变化的脆弱性评价研究进展[J].应用生态学报,2007,18(2)：445-450.
[26]崔胜辉,李旋旗,李扬,等.全球变化背景下的适应性研究综述[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(9)：1088-1098.
[27]崔胜辉,李方一,黄静,等.全球变化背景下的敏感性研究综述[J].地球科学进展,2009(9)：1033-1041.
[28]Smit B, Wandel J. Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability[J]. Global Environmental Change,2006,16:282-292.
[29]Dixon RK, Smith J, Guill S. Liff on the edge:vulnerability and adaptation of african ecosystems to global climate change[J]. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,2003,8,93-113.
[30]赵艳霞,何磊,刘寿东,等.农业生态系统脆弱性评价方法[J].生态学杂志,2007,26(5)：754-758.
[31]马定国,刘影,陈洁,等.鄱阳湖区洪灾风险与农户脆弱性分析[J].地理学报,2007,62(3)：321-332.
[32]李双成,吴绍洪,戴尔阜.生态系统响应气候变化脆弱性的人工神经网络模型评价[J].生态学报,2005,25(3)：621-626.
[33]郝璐,王静爱,张化.内蒙古草地畜牧业系统旱灾风险评价模型[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2008,16(2)：414-423.
[34]张倩.牧民应对气候变化的社会脆弱性—以内蒙古荒漠草原的一个嘎查为例[J].社会学研究,2011,6：171-195.
[35]苏浩.气候变化与牧民脆弱性[J].广播电视大学学报,2013,1：8-11.
[36]Lindsey C, Michael BC, James EE, et al. Vulnerability of the Asian typical steppe to grazing and cliamte change[J]. Climatic Change,2004,63:351-368.
[37]Klaus BB, Ingrid KK, Han XG. Steppe ecosystems and climate and land-use changes -vulnerability, feedbacks and possibilities for adaptation[J]. Plant Soil,2011,340:1-6.
[38]郑艳,潘家华,廖茂林.适应规划：概念、方法学及案例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(3)：132-139.
[39]Li X.Y, Dong Q, Rao X.L, etal. Methodologies and application of farmerscvulnerability analysis[J]. China Rural Economy,2007,4:32-39.
[40]Wu, J.D., N. Li, H.J. Yang, et al. Risk evaluation of heavy snow disasters using BP artificial neural network:the case of Xilingol in Inner Mongolia[J]. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess, 2008,22:719-725.
[41]张祚,李江风,黄琳,等.基于AHP对生态脆弱性的灰色综合评价方法研究—以湖南临湘市为例[J].资源环境与发展,2007,2：13-17.
[42]张志然,刘传金,王艳.基于AHP法的山东省生态脆弱性综合评价[J].安徽农业科学,2013,41(14)：6434-6436.
[1]李瑛,康德颜,齐二石.政策评估理论与实践研究综述[J].公共管理评论,2006,1(4)：129-137.
[2]邓剑伟,樊晓娇.国外政策评估研究的发展历程和新进展：理论与实践[J].云南行政学院学报,2013,2：34-39.
[3]李瑛,康德颜,齐二石.政策评估的利益相关者模式及其应用研究[J].科研管理,2006,27(2)：51-56.
[4]宋国君,马中,姜妮.环境政策评估及对中国环境保护的意义[J].环境评价,2013,12：34-37.
[5]张蕾Jeff Bennett,戴广翠,等.中国退耕还林政策成本效益分析[M].北京：经济科学出版社.2008.
[6]周景博,冯相昭.适应气候变化的认知与政策评价[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(7)：57-61.
[7]魏一鸣,米志付,张皓.气候政策建模研究综述：基于文献计量分析[J].地理科学进展,2013,28(8)：930-938.
[8]徐冠华,葛全胜,宫鹏,等.全球变化和人类可持续发展：挑战与对策[J].科学通报,2013,58(21)：2100-2016.
[9]柴麒敏,何建坤.气候公平的认知、政治和综合评估—如何全面看待“共区”原则在德班平台的适用问题[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,21(6)：1-7.
[10]魏一鸣,米志付,张皓.气候变化综合评估模型研究新进展[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(8)：1905-1915.
[11]林而达,许吟隆,蒋金荷,等.气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅱ)：气候变化的影响与适应[J].气候变化研究进展,2006,2(2)：51-56.
[12]纪晓婷,齐顾波.论气候变化的适应[J].宏观经济,2013,13：71-73.
[13]葛全胜,曲建升,曾静静,等.国际气候变化适应战略与态势分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2009,5(6)：369-375.
[14]潘家华,郑艳.适应气候变化的分析框架及政策涵义[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(10)：1-5.
[15]刘燕华,钱凤魁,王文涛,等.应对气候变化的适应技术框架研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境, 2013,23(5)：1-6.
[16]郑艳,潘家华,廖茂林.适应规划：概念、方法学及案例[J].中国人口资源与环境,2013,23(3)：132-139.
[17]杜凤莲,余晶,杨理,等.气候变化对草原畜牧业的影响以及适应性政策分析[J].广播电视大学学报,2013,27(1)：3-7.
[18]李鸥.参与式发展研究与实践方法[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2010.
[1]Bai YF, Han XG, Wu JG, et al. Ecosystem stability and compensatory effects in the Inner Mongolia Grassland[J]. Nature,2004,431:181-184.
[2]李光鹏,李俊龙,旭日干.北方草原牧业发展现状与草原生态畜牧业发展研究初报[J].内蒙古大学学报,2013,44(4)：435-440.
[3]陈伟娜,闫慧敏,黄河清.气候变化压力下锡林郭勒草原牧民生计与可持续能力[J].资源科学,2013,35(5)：1075-1083.
[4]Liu SL, Wang T. Climate change and local adaptation strategies in the middle Inner Mongolia, northern China[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences,2012,66:1449-1458.
[5]李文军,张倩.解读草原困境—对于干旱半干旱草原利用和管理若干问题的认识[D].北京：经济科学出版社.2009.
[6]达林太,郑易生.牧区与市场：牧民经济学[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社.2010.
[7]Klaus BB, Ingrid KK, Han XG. Steppe ecosystems and climate and land-use changes — vulnerability, feedbacks and possibilities for adaptation[J]. Plant Soil,2011,340:1-6.
[8]Dong SK, Lu W, Liu SL, et al. Vulnerability of Worldwide Pastoralism to Global Changes and Interdisciplinary Strategies for Sustainable Pastoralism[J]. Ecology and Society,2011,16(2): 10. [online] URL:http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vo116/iss2/art10/.
[9]莫汉·芒纳星河(邹文博,谢旭轩,余嘉玲等译).使发展更可持续—可持续经济学框架与应用[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社.2008.
[10]郝璐,王静爱,张化.内蒙古草地畜牧业系统旱灾风险评价模型[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2008,16(2)：414-423.
[11]郝璐,王静爱,史培军,等.草地畜牧业雪灾脆弱性评价—以内蒙古牧区为例[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(2)：51-57.
[12]韩颖,侯向阳.内蒙古荒漠草原牧户对气候变化的感知和适应[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(4)：913-922.
[13]尹燕亭,侯向阳,运向军.气候变化对内蒙古草原生态系统影响的研究进展[J].草业科学, 2011,28(6)：1132-1139.
[14]张倩.牧民应对气候变化的社会脆弱性—以内蒙古荒漠草原的一个嘎查为例[J].社会学研究,2011,6：171-195.
[15]李西良,侯向阳,丁勇,等.北方草原牧民对极端干旱感知的季节敏感性研究[J].农学学报,2012,2(10)：26-31.
[16]李西良,侯向阳,Leonid Ubugunov,等.气候变化对家庭牧场复合系统的影响及其牧民适应[J].草业学报,2013,1(22)：148-156.
[1]张存厚,王明玖,李兴华,等.近30年来内蒙古地区气候干湿状况时空分布特征[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(8)：70-75.
[2]韩颖,侯向阳.内蒙古荒漠草原牧户对气候变化的感知和适应[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(4)：913-922.
[3]Liu ShuLin, Wang Tao. Climate change and local adaptation strategies in the middle Inner Mongolia, northern China[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences,2012,66:1449-1458.
[4]李西良,侯向阳,丁勇,等.北方草原牧民对极端干旱感知的季节敏感性研究[J].农学学报,2012,2(10)：26-31.
[5]李西良,侯向阳,Leonid Ubugunov,等.气候变化对家庭牧场复合系统的影响及其牧民适应[J].草业学报,2013,1(22)：148-156.
[6]Piao SL, Ciais P, Huang Y, et al. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China[J]. Nature,2010,467:43-51.
[7]谭英,奉志伟,牛宝亮,等.气候变化背景下的农牧交错区村民认知与应对行为调查分析[J].中国农学通报,2009,25(23)：413-419.
[8]张倩.牧民应对气候变化的社会脆弱性—以内蒙古荒漠草原的一个嘎查为例[J].社会学研究,2011,6：171-195.
[9]苏浩.气候变化与牧民脆弱性[J].广播电视大学学报,2013,1：8-11.
[10]李文军,张倩.解读草原困境-对于干旱半干旱草原利用和管理若干问题的认识[D].经济科学出版社.2009.
[11]尹燕亭,侯向阳,运向军.气候变化对内蒙古草原生态系统影响的研究进展[J].草业科学,2011,28(6)：1132-1139.
[12]Klaus BB, Ingrid KK, Han XG. Steppe ecosystems and climate and land-use changes vulnerability, feedbacks and possibilities for adaptation[J]. Plant Soil,2011,340:1-6.
[1]张倩.牧民应对气候变化的社会脆弱性—以内蒙古荒漠草原的一个嘎查为例[J].社会学研究,2011,6：171-195.
[2]Li Wenjun, Ali Saleem H, Zhang Qian. Property rights and grassland degradation:A study of the Xilingol Pasture, Inner Mongolia, China[J]. Journal of Environment Management, 2007,85:46-470.
[3]Li Wenjun, Huntsinger Lynn. China's grassland contract policy and its impacts on herder ability to benefit in Inner Mongolia:tragic feedbacks[J]. Ecology and Society,2011,16(2):1. [online] URL:http://www. ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss2/artl/.
[4]Liu ShuLin, Wang Tao. Climate change and local adaptation strategies in the middle Inner Mongolia, northern China[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences,2012,66:1449-1458.
[5]尹燕亭,侯向阳,运向军.气候变化对内蒙古草原生态系统影响的研究进展[J].草业科学,2011,28(6)：1132-1139.
[6]Fernandez-Gimenez ME, Batbuyan B. Law and disorder:local implementation of Mongolia's Land Law[J]. Development and Change,2004,35:141-161.
[7]李文军,张倩.解读草原困境—对于干旱半干旱草原利用和管理若干问题的认识[D].北京：经济科学出版社.2009.
[8]Seo, S. Niggol and Bruce McCarl. Managing Livestock Species under Climate Change in Australia. Animals,2011.1:343-365.
[9]Xu GC, Kang MY, Jiang Y, et al. Adaptation to the Policy-oriented Livelihood Change in Xilingol Grassland, Northern China[J]. Procedia Environmental Sciences,2012,13: 1668-1683.
[10]达林太,郑易生.牧区与市场：牧民经济学[D].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2010.
[11]李西良,侯向阳,Leonid Ubugunov,等.气候变化对家庭牧场复合系统的影响及其牧民适应[J].草业学报,2013,1(22)：148-156.
[12]侯向阳,韩颖.内蒙古典型地区牧户气候变化感知与适应的实证研究[J].地理研究,2011,30(10)：1753-1764.
[13]谭英,奉志伟,牛宝亮,等.气候变化背景下的农牧交错区村民认知与应对行为调查分析[J].中国农学通报,2009,25(23)：413-419.
[14]陈伟娜,闫慧敏,黄河清.气候变化压力下锡林郭勒草原牧民生计与可持续能力[J].资源科学,2013,(35)5：1075-1083.
[15]刘华民,王立新,杨劫,等.农牧民气候变化适应意愿及影响因素—以鄂尔多斯市乌审旗为例[J].干旱区研究,2013,(30)1：89-95.
[16]李西良,侯向阳,丁勇,等.北方草原牧民对极端干旱感知的季节敏感性研究[J].农学学报,2012,2(10)：26-31.
1 本部分内容以题目《草原畜牧业适应气候变化研究进展》在“内蒙古大学学报自然科学版”发表,2013(已接受)。
2 数据来自《内蒙古统计年鉴2011》
3 数据来自锡林浩特市统计年鉴2011
4 本部分内容以题目《草原畜牧业对干旱的脆弱性评估——以内蒙古锡林郭勒草原为例》被“生态学杂志”刊用,2013
5 本部分内容以题目《草原畜牧业应对气候变化适应优先项研究》被“草业科学”杂志录用,2013
[2]IPCC. Climate change:the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.2007. Accessed from http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wgl.html.
[3]秦大河.进入21世纪的气候变化科学——气候变化的事实、影响与对策[J].科技导报,2007,04.
[4]秦大河,罗勇,陈振林,等.气候变化科学的最新进展：IPCC第四次评估综合报告解析[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(6)：311-314.
[5]潘家华,郑艳.适应气候变化的分析框架及政策涵义[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(10)：1-5.
[6]周广胜,许振柱,王玉辉.全球变化的生态系统适应[J].地球科学进展,2004,19(4)：642-639.
[7]沈莎莎,高群,陈爽,等.全球变化下的适应性及其研究进展[J].环境科学与技术,2012,35(12J)：166-173.
[8]郑艳,潘家华,廖茂林.适应规划：概念、方法学及案例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(3)：132-139.
[9]Piao SL, Ciais P, Huang Y, et al., The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China[J]. Nature,2010,467:43-51.
[10]尹燕亭,侯向阳,运向军.气候变化对内蒙古草原生态系统影响的研究进展[J].草业科学,2011,28(6)：1132-1139.
[11]杨劫,赵立清.内蒙古草原生态环境保护与建设[J].内蒙古草业,2012,24(4)：1-5.
[12]王明玖,张存厚.内蒙古草地气候变化及畜牧业的影响分析[J].内蒙古草业,2013,25(1)：5-12.
[13]尤莉,许吟隆,荀学义PRECIS模拟对内蒙古气候变化情景的模拟与分析[J].内蒙古气象,2009(4)：3-6.
[14]张存厚,王明玖,李兴华,等.近30年来内蒙古地区气候干湿状况时空分布特征[J].干旱区 资源与环境,2011,25(8)：70-75.
[15]Dong SK, Lu W, Liu SL, et al. Vulnerability of Worldwide Pastoralism to Global Changes and Interdisciplinary Strategies for Sustainable Pastoralism[J]. Ecology and Society, 2011,16(2):10. [online] URL:http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss2/art10/.
[16]Liu ShuLin, Wang Tao. Climate change and local adaptation strategies in the middle Inner Mongolia, northern China[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences,2012,66:1449-1458.
[17]达林太,郑易生.牧区与市场：牧民经济学[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社.2010.
[18]欧英娟,彭晓春,周健,等.气候变化对生态系统脆弱性的影响及其应对措施[J].环境科学与管理,2012,37(12)：136-141.
[19]李光鹏,李俊龙,旭日干.北方草原牧业发展现状与草原生态畜牧业发展研究初报[J].内蒙古大学学报·自然科学版,2013,44(4)：435-440.
[1]IPCC. Climate Change, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the ThirdAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [R]. McCarthy J J, Canziani O F, Leary N A,et al. eds Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press,2001,1032.
[2]秦大河.进入21世纪的气候变化科学—气候变化的事实、影响与对策[J].科技导报,2007,04.
[3]徐冠华,葛全胜,宫鹏,等.全球变化和人类可持续发展：挑战与对策[J].科学通报,2013,58(21)：2100-2016.
[4]IPCC. Climate change:the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[R].2007, Accessed from http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.html.
[5]林而达,许吟隆,蒋金荷,等.气候变化国家评估报告(II)：气候变化的影响与适应[J].气候变化研究进展,2006,2(2)：51-56.
[6]崔胜辉,李旋旗,李扬,等.全球变化背景下的适应性研究综述[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(9)：1088-1098.
[7]沈莎莎,高群,陈爽,等.全球变化下的适应性及其研究进展[J].环境科学与技术,2012,35(12)：166-173.
[8]周广胜,许振柱,王玉辉.全球变化的生态系统适应性[J].地球科学进展,2004,19(4)：642-639.
[9]潘家华,郑艳.适应气候变化的分析框架及政策涵义[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(10)：1-5.
[10]周景博,冯相昭.适应气候变化的认知与政策评价[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(7)：57-61.
[11]郑艳,潘家华,廖茂林.适应规划：概念、方法学及案例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(3)：132-139.
[12]纪晓婷,齐顾波.论气候变化的适应[J].宏观经济,2013,13：71-73.
[13]Piao SL, Ciais P, Huang Y, et al. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China[J]. Nature,2010,467:43-51.
[14]尤莉,许吟隆,荀学义PRECIS模拟对内蒙古气候变化情景的模拟与分析[J].内蒙古气象,2009,(4)：3-6.
[15]张存厚,王明玖,李兴华,等.近30年来内蒙古地区气候干湿状况时空分布特征[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(8)：70-75.
[16]Liu ShuLin, Wang Tao. Climate change and local adaptation strategies in the middle Inner Mongolia, northern China[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences,2012,66:1449-1458.
[17]韩芳,刘朋涛,牛建明,等.50a来内蒙古荒漠草原气候干燥度的空间分布及其演变特[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(3)：449-456.
[18]尹燕亭,侯向阳,运向军.气候变化对内蒙古草原生态系统影响的研究进展[J].草业科学,2011,28(6)：1132-1139.
[19]杨劫,赵立清.内蒙古草原生态环境保护与建设[J].内蒙古草业,2012,24(4)：1-5.
[20]王明玖,张存厚.内蒙古草地气候变化及畜牧业的影响分析[J].内蒙古草业,2013,25(1)：5-12.
[21]达林太,郑易生.牧区与市场：牧民经济学[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2010.
[22]李光鹏,李俊龙,旭日干.北方草原牧业发展现状与草原生态畜牧业发展研究初报[J].内蒙古大学学报·自然科学版,2013,44(4)：435-440.
[23]任继周,侯扶江,胥刚.草原文化的保持与传承[J].草业科学,2010,27(12)：5-10.
[24]任继周.草原文化是华夏文化的活泼元素[J].草业学报,2010,19(1)：1-5.
[25]李维薇,黄涛.草原牧区新希望[J].草业科学,2013,30(5)：663-664.
[26]李文军,张倩.解读草原困境——对于干旱半干旱草原利用和管理若干问题的认识[M].北京：经济科学出版社,2009.
[27]Thornton P, Herrero M, Freeman A, et al. Vulnerability, climate change and livestock-research opportunities and challenges for poverty alleviation. SAT eJournal.2007,4(1): 1-23. ejournal.icrisat.org.
[28]牛建明.气候变化对内蒙古草原分布和生产力影响的预测研究[J].草地学报,2001,9(4)：277-282.
[29]牛建明.基于气候的植被空间分布的数字模拟—以内蒙古为例[J].生态学报,2001,21(7)： 1064-1071.
[30]Bai YF, Wu JG, Xing Q, et al. Primary Production and Rain use efficiency across precipitation gradient on the Mongolia plateau[J]. Ecology,2008,89(8):2140-2153.
[31]Nardone A, Ronchi B, Lacetera N, et al. Effects of climate changes on animal production and sustainability of livestock systems[J]. Livestock Science,2010,130:57-69.
[32]Seo S Niggol, Bruce McCarl. Managing Livestock Species under Climate Change in Australia[J]. Animals,2011,1:343-365.
[33]Qi JG, Chen JQ, Wan SQ, et al. Understanding the coupled natural and human systems in Dryland East Asia[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2012,7:1-7.
[34]丁勇,侯向阳,Leonid Ubugunov,等.温带草原区气候变化及其对植被影响的研究进展[J].中国农学通报,2012,28(17)：310-316.
[35]Dixon RK, Smith J, Guill S. Liff on the edge:vulnerability and adaptation of african ecosystems to global climate change[J]. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,2003,8:93-113.
[36]Hahn MB, Riederer AM, Foster SO. The livelihood vulnerability index:A pragmatic approach to assessing risks from climate variability and change:A case study in Mozambique[J]. Global Environmental Change,2009,19:74-88.
[37]Kabubo-Mariara Jane. Global warming and livestock husbandry in Kenya:Impacts and adaptations[J]. Ecological Economics,2009,68:1915-1924.
[38]Nelson R, Kokic P, Crimp S, et al. The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change:Part I. Conceptualising and measuring vulnerability [J]. Environmental Science & Policy,2010,13:8-17.
[39]Dong SK, Lu W, Liu SL, et al. Vulnerability of Worldwide Pastoralism to Global Changes and Interdisciplinary Strategies for Sustainable Pastoralism[J]. Ecology and Society, 2011,16(2):10. [online] URL:http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss2/art10/.
[40]Fraser EDG, Dougill AJ, Hubacek K, et al. Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Dryland Livelihood Systems:Conceptual Challenges and Interdisciplinary Solutions[J]. Ecology and Society,2011,16:3. [online] URL:http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-03402-160303.
[41]Lindsey C, Michael BC, James EE, et al. Vulnerability of the Asian typical steppe to grazing and cliamte change[J]. Climatic Change,2004,63:351-368.
[42]Seo S Niggol, Mendelsohn Robert O. Climate Change Impacts on Animal Husbandry in Africa:A Ricardian Analysis (June 1,2007)[R]. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No.4261.2007. Available at SSRN:http://ssrn.com/abstract=996167.
[43]Cobon DH, Stone GS, Carter JO, et al. The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia[J]. The Rangeland Journal,2009,31:31-49.
[44]Klaus BB, Ingrid KK, Han XG. Steppe ecosystems and climate and land-use changes — vulnerability, feedbacks and possibilities for adaptation[J]. Plant Soil,2011,340:1-6.
[45]Thorpe Jeff. Vulnerability of Prairie Grasslands to Climate Change. Prepared for Prairies Regional Adaptation Collaborative[R]. Saskatchewan Research Council,2011, Publication No.12855-2E11,
[46]Nori Michele, Davies Jonathan. Change of wind or wind of change? Climate change, adaptation and pastoralism[R]. Prepared for the World Initiative for Sustainable Pastoralism. IUCN, Nairobi,2007.
[47]Jesper Stage. Economic valuation of climate change adaptation in developing countries[J]. Annals of the New York academy of sciences,2010,1185:150-163.
[48]Kabubo-Mariara Jane. Climate change adaptation and livestock activity choices in Kenya:An economic analysis[J]. Natural Resources Forum,2008,32:131-141.
[49]郑新奇,姚慧,王筱明.20世纪90年代以来《Science》关于全球气候变化研究述评[J].生态环境,2005,14(3)：422-42.
[50]於刑,曹明奎,陶波,等.基于潜在植被的中国陆地生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性定量评[J].植物生态学报,2008,32(3)：521-530.
[51]李双成,吴绍洪,戴尔阜.生态系统响应气候变化脆弱性的人工神经网络模型评价[J].生态学报,2005,25(3)：621-626.
[52]李克让,曹明奎,於琍,等.中国自然生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性评估[J].地理研究,2005,24(5)：653-663.
[53]吴绍洪,戴尔阜,黄玫,等.21世纪未来气候变化情景(B2)下我国生态系统的脆弱性研究[J].科学通报,2007,52(7)：811-817.
[54]欧英娟,彭晓春,周健,等.气候变化对生态系统脆弱性的影响及其应对措施[J].环境科学与管理,2012,37(12)：136-141.
[55]谭英,奉志伟,牛宝亮,等.气候变化背景下的农牧交错区村民认知与应对行为调查分析[J]. 中国农学通报,2009,25(23)：413-419.
[56]丁勇,牛建明,侯向阳,等.基于可持续发展评价的家庭牧场生产经营分异研究[J].草业科学,2010,27(11)：151-158.
[57]王海,侯向阳,秦艳,等.阿拉善荒漠区牧民对气候变化的感知及应对措施初探—以阿拉善左旗和阿拉善右旗为例[J].草业科学,2011,28(9)：1718-1723.
[58]韩颖,侯向阳.内蒙古荒漠草原牧户对气候变化的感知和适应[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(4)：913-922.
[59]侯向阳,韩颖.内蒙古典型地区牧户气候变化感知与适应的实证研究[J].地理研究,2011,30(10)：1753-1764.
[60]李西良,侯向阳,丁勇,等.北方草原牧民对极端干旱感知的季节敏感性研究[J].农学学报,2012,2(10)：26-31.
[61]陈伟娜,闫慧敏,黄河清.气候变化压力下锡林郭勒草原牧民生计与可持续能力[J].资源科学,2013,35(5)：1075-1083.
[62]何晓蕾,刘通,赵萌莉,等.荒漠草原适应气候变化措施分析[J].畜牧与饲料科学,2013,34(5)：51-53.
[63]何欣,牛建明,郭晓川,等.典型草原家庭牧场草地资源利用分异机制及管理策略研究[J].草业学报,2013,22(4)：257-265.
[64]李西良,侯向阳,Leonid Ubugunov,等.气候变化对家庭牧场复合系统的影响及其牧民适应[J].草业学报,2013,1(22)：148-156.
[65]刘华民,王立新,杨劫,等.农牧民气候变化适应意愿及影响因素——以鄂尔多斯市乌审旗为例[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(1)：89-95.
[66]张倩.牧民应对气候变化的社会脆弱性—以内蒙古荒漠草原的一个嘎查为例[J].社会学研究,2011,6：171-195.
[67]苏浩.气候变化与牧民脆弱性[J].广播电视大学学报,2013,1：8-11.
[68]Fu Y, Grumbine RE, Wilkes A, et al. Climate Change Adaptation Among Tibetan Pastoralists: Challenges in Enhancing Local Adaptation Through Policy Support[J]. Environmental management,2012,50:607-621.
[69]Li Wenjun, Huntsinger Lynn. China's grassland contract policy and its impacts on herder ability to benefit in Inner Mongolia:tragic feedbacks [J]. Ecology and Society,2011,16(2):1. [online] URL:http://www. ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss2/artl/.
[70]Li WJ, Ali SH, Zhang Q. Property rights and grassland degradation:A study of the Xilingol Pasture, Inner Mongolia, China[J]. Journal of Environment Management,2007,85:46-470.
[71]刘燕华,钱凤魁,王文涛,等.应对气候变化的适应技术框架研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(5)：1-6.
[72]李瑛,康德颜,齐二石.政策评估的利益相关者模式及其应用研究[J].科研管理,2006,27(2)：51-56.
[73]李鸥.参与式发展研究与实践方法[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2010.
[74]赵艳霞,何磊,刘寿东,等.农业生态系统脆弱性评价方法[J].生态学杂志,2007,26(5)：754-758.
[75]马定国,刘影,陈洁,等.鄱阳湖区洪灾风险与农户脆弱性分析[J].地理学报,2007,62(3)：321-332.
[76]郝璐,王静爱,史培军,等.草地畜牧业雪灾脆弱性评价—以内蒙古牧区为例[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(2)：51-57.
[77]郝璐,王静爱,张化.内蒙古草地畜牧业系统旱灾风险评价模型[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2008,16(2)：414-423.
[78]Wu JD, Li N, Yang HJ, et al. Risk evaluation of heavy snow disasters using BP artificial neural network:the case of Xilingol in Inner Mongolia[J]. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess, 2008,22:719-725.
[1]IPCC. Climate Change 2001, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the ThirdAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [R]. McCarthy J J, Canziani O F, Leary N A,et al. eds Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press,2001.1032.
[2]IPCC. Climate change:the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[R].2007. Accessed from http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wgl.htm.
[3]Nelson R, Kokic P, Crimp S, et al. The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change:Part I — Conceptualising and measuring vulnerability [J]. Environmental Science & Policy,2010.13:8-17.
[4]李鹤,张平宇,程叶青.脆弱性的概念及其评价方法[J].地理科学进展,2008,27(2)：18-25.
[5]於琍,曹明奎,陶波,等.基于潜在植被的中国陆地生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性定量评价[J].植物生态学报,2008,32(3)：521-530.
[6]欧英娟,彭晓春,周健,等.气候变化对生态系统脆弱性的影响及其应对措施[J].环境科学与管理,2012,37(12)：136-141.
[7]沈莎莎,高群,陈爽,等.全球变化下的适应性及其研究进展[J].环境科学与技术,2012,35(12)：166-173.
[8]Kelly PM, Adger WN. Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation[J]. Climatic Change,2000,47:325-352.
[9]Eakin H, Luers AL. Assessing the Vulnerability of Social-Environmental Systems[J]. Annual Review Environment Resources,2006,31:365-394.
[10]Ford JD, Smit B, Wandel J. Vulnerability to climate change in the Arctic:A case study from Arctic Bay, Canada[J]. Global Environmental Change,2006,16:145-160.
[11]Adger W N. Vulnerability [J]. Global Environmental Change,2006,16:268-281.
[12]Fussel HM. Vulnerability:A generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research[J]. Global Environmental Change,2007,17:155-167.
[13]Hahn MB, Riederer AM, Foster SO. The livelihood vulnerability index:a pragmatic approach to assessing risks from climate variability and change - a case study in Mozambique[J]. Global Environmental Chang,2009,19(1):74-88.
[14]Dong SK, Lu W, Liu SL, et al.. Vulnerability of Worldwide Pastoralism to Global Changes and Interdisciplinary Strategies for Sustainable Pastoralism[J]. Ecology and Society, 2011,16(2):10. [online] URL:http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss2/art10/.
[15]Khan S. Vulnerability assessments and their planning implications:a case study of the Hutt Valley, New Zealand[J]. Natural Hazards,2012,64:1587-1607.
[16]Pandey R, Jha SK. Climate vulnerability index — measure of climate change vulnerability to communities:a case of rural Lower Himalaya, India[J]. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,2012,17:487-506.
[17]Birkmannn J. eds. Measuring Vulnerability to Hazards of National Origin[M]. Tokyo:UNU Press,2006.
[18]方修琦,殷培红.弹性、脆弱性和适应——HDP三个核心概念综述[J].地理科学进展,2007,26(5)：11-22.
[19]Fraser EDQ Dougill AJ, Hubacek K, et al. Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Dryland Livelihood Systems:Conceptual Challenges and Interdisciplinary Solutions [J]. Ecology and Society,2011,16(3):3. [online] URL:http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-03402-160303.
[20]Reidsma P, Ewert F. Regional Farm Diversity Can Reduce Vulnerability of Food Production to Climate Change[JJ. Ecology and Society,2008,13(1):38. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art38/.
[21]郝璐,王静爱,史培军,等.草地畜牧业雪灾脆弱性评价—以内蒙古牧区为例[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(2)：51-57.
[22]李克让,曹明奎,於琍,等.中国自然生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性评估[J].地理研究,2005,24(5)：653-663.
[23]徐广才,康慕谊,贺丽娜,等.生态脆弱性及其研究进展[J].生态学报,2009,29(5)：2578-2588.
[24]吴绍洪,戴尔阜,黄玫,等.21世纪未来气候变化情景(B2)下我国生态系统的脆弱性研究[J].科学通报,2007,52(7)：811-817.
[25]赵慧霞,吴绍洪,姜鲁光.自然生态系统响应气候变化的脆弱性评价研究进展[J].应用生态学报,2007,18(2)：445-450.
[26]崔胜辉,李旋旗,李扬,等.全球变化背景下的适应性研究综述[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(9)：1088-1098.
[27]崔胜辉,李方一,黄静,等.全球变化背景下的敏感性研究综述[J].地球科学进展,2009(9)：1033-1041.
[28]Smit B, Wandel J. Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability[J]. Global Environmental Change,2006,16:282-292.
[29]Dixon RK, Smith J, Guill S. Liff on the edge:vulnerability and adaptation of african ecosystems to global climate change[J]. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,2003,8,93-113.
[30]赵艳霞,何磊,刘寿东,等.农业生态系统脆弱性评价方法[J].生态学杂志,2007,26(5)：754-758.
[31]马定国,刘影,陈洁,等.鄱阳湖区洪灾风险与农户脆弱性分析[J].地理学报,2007,62(3)：321-332.
[32]李双成,吴绍洪,戴尔阜.生态系统响应气候变化脆弱性的人工神经网络模型评价[J].生态学报,2005,25(3)：621-626.
[33]郝璐,王静爱,张化.内蒙古草地畜牧业系统旱灾风险评价模型[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2008,16(2)：414-423.
[34]张倩.牧民应对气候变化的社会脆弱性—以内蒙古荒漠草原的一个嘎查为例[J].社会学研究,2011,6：171-195.
[35]苏浩.气候变化与牧民脆弱性[J].广播电视大学学报,2013,1：8-11.
[36]Lindsey C, Michael BC, James EE, et al. Vulnerability of the Asian typical steppe to grazing and cliamte change[J]. Climatic Change,2004,63:351-368.
[37]Klaus BB, Ingrid KK, Han XG. Steppe ecosystems and climate and land-use changes -vulnerability, feedbacks and possibilities for adaptation[J]. Plant Soil,2011,340:1-6.
[38]郑艳,潘家华,廖茂林.适应规划：概念、方法学及案例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(3)：132-139.
[39]Li X.Y, Dong Q, Rao X.L, etal. Methodologies and application of farmerscvulnerability analysis[J]. China Rural Economy,2007,4:32-39.
[40]Wu, J.D., N. Li, H.J. Yang, et al. Risk evaluation of heavy snow disasters using BP artificial neural network:the case of Xilingol in Inner Mongolia[J]. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess, 2008,22:719-725.
[41]张祚,李江风,黄琳,等.基于AHP对生态脆弱性的灰色综合评价方法研究—以湖南临湘市为例[J].资源环境与发展,2007,2：13-17.
[42]张志然,刘传金,王艳.基于AHP法的山东省生态脆弱性综合评价[J].安徽农业科学,2013,41(14)：6434-6436.
[1]李瑛,康德颜,齐二石.政策评估理论与实践研究综述[J].公共管理评论,2006,1(4)：129-137.
[2]邓剑伟,樊晓娇.国外政策评估研究的发展历程和新进展：理论与实践[J].云南行政学院学报,2013,2：34-39.
[3]李瑛,康德颜,齐二石.政策评估的利益相关者模式及其应用研究[J].科研管理,2006,27(2)：51-56.
[4]宋国君,马中,姜妮.环境政策评估及对中国环境保护的意义[J].环境评价,2013,12：34-37.
[5]张蕾Jeff Bennett,戴广翠,等.中国退耕还林政策成本效益分析[M].北京：经济科学出版社.2008.
[6]周景博,冯相昭.适应气候变化的认知与政策评价[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(7)：57-61.
[7]魏一鸣,米志付,张皓.气候政策建模研究综述：基于文献计量分析[J].地理科学进展,2013,28(8)：930-938.
[8]徐冠华,葛全胜,宫鹏,等.全球变化和人类可持续发展：挑战与对策[J].科学通报,2013,58(21)：2100-2016.
[9]柴麒敏,何建坤.气候公平的认知、政治和综合评估—如何全面看待“共区”原则在德班平台的适用问题[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,21(6)：1-7.
[10]魏一鸣,米志付,张皓.气候变化综合评估模型研究新进展[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(8)：1905-1915.
[11]林而达,许吟隆,蒋金荷,等.气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅱ)：气候变化的影响与适应[J].气候变化研究进展,2006,2(2)：51-56.
[12]纪晓婷,齐顾波.论气候变化的适应[J].宏观经济,2013,13：71-73.
[13]葛全胜,曲建升,曾静静,等.国际气候变化适应战略与态势分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2009,5(6)：369-375.
[14]潘家华,郑艳.适应气候变化的分析框架及政策涵义[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(10)：1-5.
[15]刘燕华,钱凤魁,王文涛,等.应对气候变化的适应技术框架研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境, 2013,23(5)：1-6.
[16]郑艳,潘家华,廖茂林.适应规划：概念、方法学及案例[J].中国人口资源与环境,2013,23(3)：132-139.
[17]杜凤莲,余晶,杨理,等.气候变化对草原畜牧业的影响以及适应性政策分析[J].广播电视大学学报,2013,27(1)：3-7.
[18]李鸥.参与式发展研究与实践方法[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2010.
[1]Bai YF, Han XG, Wu JG, et al. Ecosystem stability and compensatory effects in the Inner Mongolia Grassland[J]. Nature,2004,431:181-184.
[2]李光鹏,李俊龙,旭日干.北方草原牧业发展现状与草原生态畜牧业发展研究初报[J].内蒙古大学学报,2013,44(4)：435-440.
[3]陈伟娜,闫慧敏,黄河清.气候变化压力下锡林郭勒草原牧民生计与可持续能力[J].资源科学,2013,35(5)：1075-1083.
[4]Liu SL, Wang T. Climate change and local adaptation strategies in the middle Inner Mongolia, northern China[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences,2012,66:1449-1458.
[5]李文军,张倩.解读草原困境—对于干旱半干旱草原利用和管理若干问题的认识[D].北京：经济科学出版社.2009.
[6]达林太,郑易生.牧区与市场：牧民经济学[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社.2010.
[7]Klaus BB, Ingrid KK, Han XG. Steppe ecosystems and climate and land-use changes — vulnerability, feedbacks and possibilities for adaptation[J]. Plant Soil,2011,340:1-6.
[8]Dong SK, Lu W, Liu SL, et al. Vulnerability of Worldwide Pastoralism to Global Changes and Interdisciplinary Strategies for Sustainable Pastoralism[J]. Ecology and Society,2011,16(2): 10. [online] URL:http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vo116/iss2/art10/.
[9]莫汉·芒纳星河(邹文博,谢旭轩,余嘉玲等译).使发展更可持续—可持续经济学框架与应用[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社.2008.
[10]郝璐,王静爱,张化.内蒙古草地畜牧业系统旱灾风险评价模型[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2008,16(2)：414-423.
[11]郝璐,王静爱,史培军,等.草地畜牧业雪灾脆弱性评价—以内蒙古牧区为例[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(2)：51-57.
[12]韩颖,侯向阳.内蒙古荒漠草原牧户对气候变化的感知和适应[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(4)：913-922.
[13]尹燕亭,侯向阳,运向军.气候变化对内蒙古草原生态系统影响的研究进展[J].草业科学, 2011,28(6)：1132-1139.
[14]张倩.牧民应对气候变化的社会脆弱性—以内蒙古荒漠草原的一个嘎查为例[J].社会学研究,2011,6：171-195.
[15]李西良,侯向阳,丁勇,等.北方草原牧民对极端干旱感知的季节敏感性研究[J].农学学报,2012,2(10)：26-31.
[16]李西良,侯向阳,Leonid Ubugunov,等.气候变化对家庭牧场复合系统的影响及其牧民适应[J].草业学报,2013,1(22)：148-156.
[1]张存厚,王明玖,李兴华,等.近30年来内蒙古地区气候干湿状况时空分布特征[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(8)：70-75.
[2]韩颖,侯向阳.内蒙古荒漠草原牧户对气候变化的感知和适应[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(4)：913-922.
[3]Liu ShuLin, Wang Tao. Climate change and local adaptation strategies in the middle Inner Mongolia, northern China[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences,2012,66:1449-1458.
[4]李西良,侯向阳,丁勇,等.北方草原牧民对极端干旱感知的季节敏感性研究[J].农学学报,2012,2(10)：26-31.
[5]李西良,侯向阳,Leonid Ubugunov,等.气候变化对家庭牧场复合系统的影响及其牧民适应[J].草业学报,2013,1(22)：148-156.
[6]Piao SL, Ciais P, Huang Y, et al. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China[J]. Nature,2010,467:43-51.
[7]谭英,奉志伟,牛宝亮,等.气候变化背景下的农牧交错区村民认知与应对行为调查分析[J].中国农学通报,2009,25(23)：413-419.
[8]张倩.牧民应对气候变化的社会脆弱性—以内蒙古荒漠草原的一个嘎查为例[J].社会学研究,2011,6：171-195.
[9]苏浩.气候变化与牧民脆弱性[J].广播电视大学学报,2013,1：8-11.
[10]李文军,张倩.解读草原困境-对于干旱半干旱草原利用和管理若干问题的认识[D].经济科学出版社.2009.
[11]尹燕亭,侯向阳,运向军.气候变化对内蒙古草原生态系统影响的研究进展[J].草业科学,2011,28(6)：1132-1139.
[12]Klaus BB, Ingrid KK, Han XG. Steppe ecosystems and climate and land-use changes vulnerability, feedbacks and possibilities for adaptation[J]. Plant Soil,2011,340:1-6.
[1]张倩.牧民应对气候变化的社会脆弱性—以内蒙古荒漠草原的一个嘎查为例[J].社会学研究,2011,6：171-195.
[2]Li Wenjun, Ali Saleem H, Zhang Qian. Property rights and grassland degradation:A study of the Xilingol Pasture, Inner Mongolia, China[J]. Journal of Environment Management, 2007,85:46-470.
[3]Li Wenjun, Huntsinger Lynn. China's grassland contract policy and its impacts on herder ability to benefit in Inner Mongolia:tragic feedbacks[J]. Ecology and Society,2011,16(2):1. [online] URL:http://www. ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss2/artl/.
[4]Liu ShuLin, Wang Tao. Climate change and local adaptation strategies in the middle Inner Mongolia, northern China[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences,2012,66:1449-1458.
[5]尹燕亭,侯向阳,运向军.气候变化对内蒙古草原生态系统影响的研究进展[J].草业科学,2011,28(6)：1132-1139.
[6]Fernandez-Gimenez ME, Batbuyan B. Law and disorder:local implementation of Mongolia's Land Law[J]. Development and Change,2004,35:141-161.
[7]李文军,张倩.解读草原困境—对于干旱半干旱草原利用和管理若干问题的认识[D].北京：经济科学出版社.2009.
[8]Seo, S. Niggol and Bruce McCarl. Managing Livestock Species under Climate Change in Australia. Animals,2011.1:343-365.
[9]Xu GC, Kang MY, Jiang Y, et al. Adaptation to the Policy-oriented Livelihood Change in Xilingol Grassland, Northern China[J]. Procedia Environmental Sciences,2012,13: 1668-1683.
[10]达林太,郑易生.牧区与市场：牧民经济学[D].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2010.
[11]李西良,侯向阳,Leonid Ubugunov,等.气候变化对家庭牧场复合系统的影响及其牧民适应[J].草业学报,2013,1(22)：148-156.
[12]侯向阳,韩颖.内蒙古典型地区牧户气候变化感知与适应的实证研究[J].地理研究,2011,30(10)：1753-1764.
[13]谭英,奉志伟,牛宝亮,等.气候变化背景下的农牧交错区村民认知与应对行为调查分析[J].中国农学通报,2009,25(23)：413-419.
[14]陈伟娜,闫慧敏,黄河清.气候变化压力下锡林郭勒草原牧民生计与可持续能力[J].资源科学,2013,(35)5：1075-1083.
[15]刘华民,王立新,杨劫,等.农牧民气候变化适应意愿及影响因素—以鄂尔多斯市乌审旗为例[J].干旱区研究,2013,(30)1：89-95.
[16]李西良,侯向阳,丁勇,等.北方草原牧民对极端干旱感知的季节敏感性研究[J].农学学报,2012,2(10)：26-31.
1 本部分内容以题目《草原畜牧业适应气候变化研究进展》在“内蒙古大学学报自然科学版”发表,2013(已接受)。
2 数据来自《内蒙古统计年鉴2011》
3 数据来自锡林浩特市统计年鉴2011
4 本部分内容以题目《草原畜牧业对干旱的脆弱性评估——以内蒙古锡林郭勒草原为例》被“生态学杂志”刊用,2013
5 本部分内容以题目《草原畜牧业应对气候变化适应优先项研究》被“草业科学”杂志录用,2013