风力发电项目投资风险评价研究
|
摘要
随着人们环保意识的增强及节能减排的开展,相比其他新能源风电清洁无污染,技术发展比较成熟,投资灵活,资源丰富,具有良好的经济效益和社会效益,得到了众多国家及地方政府的支持,因此风电开发就成为投资开发商关注的重点项目。
风电投资愈演愈烈,但是我们也必须清楚的认识到,我国现阶段的风电开发技术与发达国家相比还存在一定的差距,尚处于风电发展的初级阶段经验不足,在开发建设运营过程中将会遇到很多风险,这需要我们加以重视以保证风电项目的经济社会效益。基于此考虑,本文对风电项目投资进行详细的风险分析评价研究,以期对风电投资有所贡献。
本文首先介绍了风电发展概况及风电项目投资的成本组成,论述了风电项目风险的概念及其特点,并详细评述了风电项目风险分析评价的相关理论及评价方法模型;在风险分析方面,首先在分析风力发电项目特点的基础上,对风电项目的各阶段进行风险因素识别,进而构建了比较完善的风险评价指标体系;在指标体系构建完成以后,综合传统风险评价方法的优缺点,根据风电项目风险因素的特点,文章整合多种风险评价方法,建立基于区间变权的相对模糊差异度风险评价模型。首先利用区间变权重的方法确定各级指标的权重,然后利用相对模糊差异度改进模糊综合评价模型,并将其应用到内蒙古某风电项目风险评价中去,验证了该模型的实用性和可行性,并提出了相应的风险防范对策。最后总结了文章的研究成果创新之处,并指出了本文对风电项目风险评价研究的不足之处及后续研究的方向。
With awareness of environmental protection and carry out energy saving, wind energy technology is relatively mature, investment flexibility, resource-rich, with good economic and social benefits compared to other new clean pollution-free, received many national and local government support, investment in wind power development has become the focus of the project developer.
Play pang more investment in wind power, but we must also clearly understand that China's current wind power development technologies there is still a gap compared with developed countries, is still in the early stage of development of wind power lack of experience in the development and construction. The process will encounter many operational risks, which need our attention. Therefore, this article carried out a detailed evaluation of the risk analysis on wind power project investment.
This paper introduced the overview of the development of wind power and wind power project investment cost components, discussed the concept of wind power project risk and characteristics, and a detailed review of the wind power project risk analysis and evaluation of relevant theories and evaluation models; In risk analysis, The first analysised of the wind power projects on the various stages of risk factor identification based on characteristics of wind power projects, and then builded a more complete risk evaluation index system; After the index system of completed, integrated the advantages and disadvantages of traditional risk assessment methods of wind power projects based on the characteristics of risk factors, the paper integrated a variety of risk assessment methods, established the relative difference degree of fuzzy risk assessment model based on interval variable weight. Firstly, we used interval variable weight method to determine the weight of indicators at all levels, and then use the relative difference in degree of fuzzy to improve the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, and apply it to a wind power project in Inner Mongolia in the risk assessment to verify the practicality and feasibility of the model, and proposed the corresponding risk prevention measures. Finally, the article summarized the results of research innovation, and pointed out the inadequacies and direction for further research on risk assessment of wind power projects.
风电投资愈演愈烈,但是我们也必须清楚的认识到,我国现阶段的风电开发技术与发达国家相比还存在一定的差距,尚处于风电发展的初级阶段经验不足,在开发建设运营过程中将会遇到很多风险,这需要我们加以重视以保证风电项目的经济社会效益。基于此考虑,本文对风电项目投资进行详细的风险分析评价研究,以期对风电投资有所贡献。
本文首先介绍了风电发展概况及风电项目投资的成本组成,论述了风电项目风险的概念及其特点,并详细评述了风电项目风险分析评价的相关理论及评价方法模型;在风险分析方面,首先在分析风力发电项目特点的基础上,对风电项目的各阶段进行风险因素识别,进而构建了比较完善的风险评价指标体系;在指标体系构建完成以后,综合传统风险评价方法的优缺点,根据风电项目风险因素的特点,文章整合多种风险评价方法,建立基于区间变权的相对模糊差异度风险评价模型。首先利用区间变权重的方法确定各级指标的权重,然后利用相对模糊差异度改进模糊综合评价模型,并将其应用到内蒙古某风电项目风险评价中去,验证了该模型的实用性和可行性,并提出了相应的风险防范对策。最后总结了文章的研究成果创新之处,并指出了本文对风电项目风险评价研究的不足之处及后续研究的方向。
With awareness of environmental protection and carry out energy saving, wind energy technology is relatively mature, investment flexibility, resource-rich, with good economic and social benefits compared to other new clean pollution-free, received many national and local government support, investment in wind power development has become the focus of the project developer.
Play pang more investment in wind power, but we must also clearly understand that China's current wind power development technologies there is still a gap compared with developed countries, is still in the early stage of development of wind power lack of experience in the development and construction. The process will encounter many operational risks, which need our attention. Therefore, this article carried out a detailed evaluation of the risk analysis on wind power project investment.
This paper introduced the overview of the development of wind power and wind power project investment cost components, discussed the concept of wind power project risk and characteristics, and a detailed review of the wind power project risk analysis and evaluation of relevant theories and evaluation models; In risk analysis, The first analysised of the wind power projects on the various stages of risk factor identification based on characteristics of wind power projects, and then builded a more complete risk evaluation index system; After the index system of completed, integrated the advantages and disadvantages of traditional risk assessment methods of wind power projects based on the characteristics of risk factors, the paper integrated a variety of risk assessment methods, established the relative difference degree of fuzzy risk assessment model based on interval variable weight. Firstly, we used interval variable weight method to determine the weight of indicators at all levels, and then use the relative difference in degree of fuzzy to improve the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, and apply it to a wind power project in Inner Mongolia in the risk assessment to verify the practicality and feasibility of the model, and proposed the corresponding risk prevention measures. Finally, the article summarized the results of research innovation, and pointed out the inadequacies and direction for further research on risk assessment of wind power projects.
引文
[1]李俊峰,时璟丽.风能开发潜力巨大,风电发展任重道远[J].风力发电,2006(6):11-14
[2]王承煦,张源.风力发电[M].中国电力出版社,2003
[3]张正敏等.中国风力发电经济激励政策研究[M].中国环境科学出版社,2002
[4]黄毅诚.再谈发展风力发电[D].我国风力发电发展战略研讨会论文集,2003,10
[5]陈和平等.风电特许权运作方式和政策分析[J].国家计委能源研究所可再生能源发展中心
[6]王晓蓉等.我国风力发电现状和展望[J].新能源,2004
[7] M.R.Gustavson.Limits to Wing Power Utilization[J].Science,1979
[8]Gaudiosi Gaetano.Off Shore Wind energy in the World Context.Renewable Energy Volume:9 ,Issue:1-4,September 12,1996,89-90
[9]Shou Qing Wang, Robert L.K.Tiong,S.K.Ting. Evaluation and Management of Political in China's BOT Projects[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,2000(7):214-217
[10]盛联业.电源项目投资风险分析及评价[D].华北电力大学,2006
[11]丁伟,李星梅.电力市场中发电项目投资风险研究[J].现代电力,2006(03):84-88
[12]邓华.电力项目投资风险分析及管理[D].对外贸易经济大学,2000
[13]孙海龙.基于物元分析的火电厂新建机组项目投资风险研究[J].科技信息,2008,20
[14]骆逊,贾建荣.基于蒙特卡罗模拟的火电建设项目投资风险估计[J].北京工商大学学报,2006(03):66-68
[15] D.A.Hillson.Risk Management:Best Practice&Future[D].2004
[16]British Standard Institute.Risk Management[M].BS8444,1996
[17]Paul R.Garvey P R Lansdowne Z F.Risk Matrix:an Approach for Identifying.Assessing and Ranking Risks[J].Air Force of Logistics,1998,(25)
[18] D.A.Hillson.Towards a Risk Maturity Model[J].International Journal Project&Business Risk Mgt,1997,(1)
[19] CCTA.Management of Programme Risk[D].HMSO, London,1995
[20] C. B. Chapman,Dales F. Cooper.Risk Analysis for Large Projeet:Models,Methods and Cases[M].John Wiley, Son Ltd..Chichester,1987
[21]李伯年.多目标决策中客观性权重确定方法的研究[J].运筹与管理,2002.11(5):36-39
[22] Ye Yong, Huang Shixiang. Gray Correlation Determination Method based on 4PL Evaluation Index [J]. Hefei University of Technology, 2006.20 (1) :80-83
[23]Li Mingqi, Shen Liyin. The Risk Effect in risk Management Decision - Behavior Decision Model and Analysis [J]. Systems Engineering Theory and Practice, 2001, (10)
[24]蔡依萍,朱文龙,施国庆.工程项目的风险识别与控制[J].水力科技与经济,2004.10(3):129-132
[25]Chen Liwen. Project Investment Risk Analysis Theory and Method [M]. Beijing: China Machine Press, 2004.9:127-132
[26]Foreword. Financial Decision Models in a Dynamical Setting[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics&Control ,2004:859-860
[27]曲盛恩.基于模糊层次分析和灰色关联分析的供应商评价选择研究[J].商业研究,2005(24):7-10
[28]孔令明,王云峰.整合模糊AHP和灰关联分析法在项目投资风险分析中的应用研究[J].商场现代化,2008
[29]张胜斌.工程项目风险分析方法研究[D].吉林大学, 2008
[30]尹丽英.水电投资项目风险评价及指标体系研究[D].西安科技大学,2005
[31]T.L.Saaty.the Analytical Hierarchy Process.McGraw Hill.New York, 1980
[32] David.A.K .Risk modelling in energy contracts between host utilities and BOT plant investors Energy Conversion[A].IEEE Transactions[C]. 1996:359-366
[33]Prina, J. Investment Decision Making in a Deregulated Electric Industry Using Stochastic Dominance[A]. Engineering Management Society [C]. Proceedings of the 2000 IEEE 13-15 Aug, 2000,Page(s):546-551
[34]汪培庄,李洪兴.模糊系统理论与模糊计算机[M].北京:科学出版社,1996:152-165
[35]Liu Wenqi.Balanced Function and its Application for Variable Weight Synthesizing[J].System Engineering-Theory&Practice,1997,17(4):58-64
[36]孙亚胜.模糊网络分析在海上风电项目风险评价中的应用[D] .大连理工大学, 2008
[37] Fried,V.H.and R.HiSrich.Toward a Model of Venture Capital Investment Decision Making[J].Financial Management,1994(3):28-37
[38]石剑云,潘科.变权和相对差异函数在建筑火灾风险评估中的应用[J].安全与环境学报, 2008(4):157-159
[39]梁红.未确知数学在地铁工程施工安全评价中的应用研究[D].中国地质大学(北京),2010
[40]潘科,石剑云.变权和相对差异函数在地铁运营安全评价中的应用[J].铁道学报,2009(6):125-127
[41]Tah.J.H.M,Thorpe.A,McCaffer.R.Contractor Project Risks Contingency Allocation usingLinguistic Approximation.Computing Systems in Engineering,1993,3(4):201-269.
[42]J.H.M.TAH&V.CARR.Information Modeling for a Construction Project Risk Management System[J].Engineering Construction and Architectural Management,2000,7(2):107-119
[43]唐寰.风电项目风险分析及综合评价[D].华北电力大学, 2009
[44] M-Elisabteh,Pate-cornell,Peter J.Dynamic Risk Management Systems:Hyrid Arehitecture and Offshore Platform llllustration.Risk Analysis.1998,18(4):23-27
[45] Hillson.Extending the Risk Process to Manage Opportunities.International Journal of Project Management.2002,(20):235-240
[46]吕立寨.500kV罗百二回输变电工程线路工程风险评价[D].华北电力大学,2009
[2]王承煦,张源.风力发电[M].中国电力出版社,2003
[3]张正敏等.中国风力发电经济激励政策研究[M].中国环境科学出版社,2002
[4]黄毅诚.再谈发展风力发电[D].我国风力发电发展战略研讨会论文集,2003,10
[5]陈和平等.风电特许权运作方式和政策分析[J].国家计委能源研究所可再生能源发展中心
[6]王晓蓉等.我国风力发电现状和展望[J].新能源,2004
[7] M.R.Gustavson.Limits to Wing Power Utilization[J].Science,1979
[8]Gaudiosi Gaetano.Off Shore Wind energy in the World Context.Renewable Energy Volume:9 ,Issue:1-4,September 12,1996,89-90
[9]Shou Qing Wang, Robert L.K.Tiong,S.K.Ting. Evaluation and Management of Political in China's BOT Projects[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,2000(7):214-217
[10]盛联业.电源项目投资风险分析及评价[D].华北电力大学,2006
[11]丁伟,李星梅.电力市场中发电项目投资风险研究[J].现代电力,2006(03):84-88
[12]邓华.电力项目投资风险分析及管理[D].对外贸易经济大学,2000
[13]孙海龙.基于物元分析的火电厂新建机组项目投资风险研究[J].科技信息,2008,20
[14]骆逊,贾建荣.基于蒙特卡罗模拟的火电建设项目投资风险估计[J].北京工商大学学报,2006(03):66-68
[15] D.A.Hillson.Risk Management:Best Practice&Future[D].2004
[16]British Standard Institute.Risk Management[M].BS8444,1996
[17]Paul R.Garvey P R Lansdowne Z F.Risk Matrix:an Approach for Identifying.Assessing and Ranking Risks[J].Air Force of Logistics,1998,(25)
[18] D.A.Hillson.Towards a Risk Maturity Model[J].International Journal Project&Business Risk Mgt,1997,(1)
[19] CCTA.Management of Programme Risk[D].HMSO, London,1995
[20] C. B. Chapman,Dales F. Cooper.Risk Analysis for Large Projeet:Models,Methods and Cases[M].John Wiley, Son Ltd..Chichester,1987
[21]李伯年.多目标决策中客观性权重确定方法的研究[J].运筹与管理,2002.11(5):36-39
[22] Ye Yong, Huang Shixiang. Gray Correlation Determination Method based on 4PL Evaluation Index [J]. Hefei University of Technology, 2006.20 (1) :80-83
[23]Li Mingqi, Shen Liyin. The Risk Effect in risk Management Decision - Behavior Decision Model and Analysis [J]. Systems Engineering Theory and Practice, 2001, (10)
[24]蔡依萍,朱文龙,施国庆.工程项目的风险识别与控制[J].水力科技与经济,2004.10(3):129-132
[25]Chen Liwen. Project Investment Risk Analysis Theory and Method [M]. Beijing: China Machine Press, 2004.9:127-132
[26]Foreword. Financial Decision Models in a Dynamical Setting[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics&Control ,2004:859-860
[27]曲盛恩.基于模糊层次分析和灰色关联分析的供应商评价选择研究[J].商业研究,2005(24):7-10
[28]孔令明,王云峰.整合模糊AHP和灰关联分析法在项目投资风险分析中的应用研究[J].商场现代化,2008
[29]张胜斌.工程项目风险分析方法研究[D].吉林大学, 2008
[30]尹丽英.水电投资项目风险评价及指标体系研究[D].西安科技大学,2005
[31]T.L.Saaty.the Analytical Hierarchy Process.McGraw Hill.New York, 1980
[32] David.A.K .Risk modelling in energy contracts between host utilities and BOT plant investors Energy Conversion[A].IEEE Transactions[C]. 1996:359-366
[33]Prina, J. Investment Decision Making in a Deregulated Electric Industry Using Stochastic Dominance[A]. Engineering Management Society [C]. Proceedings of the 2000 IEEE 13-15 Aug, 2000,Page(s):546-551
[34]汪培庄,李洪兴.模糊系统理论与模糊计算机[M].北京:科学出版社,1996:152-165
[35]Liu Wenqi.Balanced Function and its Application for Variable Weight Synthesizing[J].System Engineering-Theory&Practice,1997,17(4):58-64
[36]孙亚胜.模糊网络分析在海上风电项目风险评价中的应用[D] .大连理工大学, 2008
[37] Fried,V.H.and R.HiSrich.Toward a Model of Venture Capital Investment Decision Making[J].Financial Management,1994(3):28-37
[38]石剑云,潘科.变权和相对差异函数在建筑火灾风险评估中的应用[J].安全与环境学报, 2008(4):157-159
[39]梁红.未确知数学在地铁工程施工安全评价中的应用研究[D].中国地质大学(北京),2010
[40]潘科,石剑云.变权和相对差异函数在地铁运营安全评价中的应用[J].铁道学报,2009(6):125-127
[41]Tah.J.H.M,Thorpe.A,McCaffer.R.Contractor Project Risks Contingency Allocation usingLinguistic Approximation.Computing Systems in Engineering,1993,3(4):201-269.
[42]J.H.M.TAH&V.CARR.Information Modeling for a Construction Project Risk Management System[J].Engineering Construction and Architectural Management,2000,7(2):107-119
[43]唐寰.风电项目风险分析及综合评价[D].华北电力大学, 2009
[44] M-Elisabteh,Pate-cornell,Peter J.Dynamic Risk Management Systems:Hyrid Arehitecture and Offshore Platform llllustration.Risk Analysis.1998,18(4):23-27
[45] Hillson.Extending the Risk Process to Manage Opportunities.International Journal of Project Management.2002,(20):235-240
[46]吕立寨.500kV罗百二回输变电工程线路工程风险评价[D].华北电力大学,2009