高速公路施工区交通流特性与安全风险分析
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摘要
截至2013年底，全国公路总里程达到424万公里，其中普通国道17.3万公里，国家高速公路10.5万公里。随着国家高速公路里程增加和早期修建的高速公路相继进行日常养护、大中修或改扩建，高速公路施工区已成为高速公路系统的重要组成部分。由于高速公路施工区通常并不中断日常交通，使得施工区对日常车流形成干扰，引起的交通问题也愈加突出，主要表现在道路通行能力折减和交通事故率上升两个方面，因此施工区也被视为高速公路的瓶颈段之一。
高速公路施工区特殊的道路交通环境造成其交通流特征比正常基本路段更为复杂，车辆减速、车流强制性合流、车流重分布以及施工人员和设备与车流之间的相互干扰等对施工区交通特性均有明显的影响，是诱发高速公路交通事故的主要原因之一。因此，开展高速公路施工区交通运行规律研究、道路通行能力计算和安全风险分析为交通管理和安全保障措施提供基础理论依据和技术支持，具有一定的实践意义。本文以陕西省交通厅科技项目黄土地区高速公路改扩建关键技术研究子项目四为依托，主体内容分为施工区交通特性研究和施工区安全风险分析两大部分。
在施工区交通特性研究方面，本文重点分析了车头时距和车速两项交通流参数，对施工区交通流运行规律和分布模型进行了深入研究。施工区车头时距分布规律方面，根据车流在施工区的集散特征，对车头时距进行统计分析，分析施工区车头时距的变化规律及其影响因素。基于此本文进一步提出移位韦布尔修正分布模型并对新增移位系数取值进行分析。论文根据车头时距的分布规律确定所研究施工区的交通运行状态，计算施工区道路通行能力并与国内其他研究结果进行对比。施工区运行车速分布规律方面，论文根据大量调查数据分别分析了施工区混合车流和单一车流车速分布特性和不同区段、车型之间的车速变化规律。研究结果表明，交通流参数随着施工区各区段呈现规律性变化，同时道路通行能力比正常高速公路基本路段明显偏低，车流极易出现跟驰状态，在上述情况下，车速变化频繁和车流换道是施工区车辆间产生交通冲突的主要原因之一。
施工区安全风险分析方面，论文以施工区交通特性为研究基础对施工区进行安全风险分析，包括宏观风险分析和微观交通冲突风险分析。论文基于施工区车速分布规律，宏观风险分析方法和指标，从第85%位车速差V85与相对事故风险度，车速连续性及差异显著性和车速标准差与交通事故率等三个方面进行宏观风险分析。研究结果表明：由于施工区不同区段断面之间车速变化幅度较大和不同车型之间速度差异性较大，造成施工区交通安全的整体水平偏低，尤其是警告区、上游过渡区和作业区的道路交通事故风险度偏高。
微观冲突风险分析方面，本文根据车辆在施工区的运行轨迹，对施工区冲突点进行分析并归类为：跟驰追尾冲突、强制性换道冲突和合流挤车换道冲突。对于跟驰追尾冲突，论文引入在车辆减速情况下驾驶人特性的相关研究结果，建立了碰撞时间函数（TTC）与减速度之间的关系模型并以此对施工区TTC的不同等级进行划分（安全：>12.0s、较为安全：7.0~12.0s、一般冲突：4.0~7.0s和严重冲突：<4.0s）。根据划分结果，对施工区的上游过渡区和作业区进行了跟驰追尾冲突风险分析，结果表明：上游过渡区和缓冲区的跟驰追尾冲突风险性较高。强制性换道冲突风险方面，论文给出了施工区限速建议值并根据超速车辆的比例进行风险分析。挤车换道冲突风险方面，根据冲突产生的临界条件，结合微观交通流特点和车辆最大减速度分布规律，对不同车速情况下挤车换道的冲突风险等级进行划分（安全、较为安全、一般冲突、严重冲突）。
By the end of2011，the total highway mileage reached4,106,000kilometers, whichinclude106,000kilometers of the ordinary state road and64,000kilometers of nationalfreeways. With the national freeway mileage increase and early built freeways have routinemaintenance, repair or reconstruction project gradully, freeway work zone has been as animportant part of the freeway system. As the freeway work zone usually doesn’t interrupt thedaily traffic, the work zone interferes with the daily traffic flow, causing traffic problemsbecome even more obvious. The main problems include road capacity reduction and accidentrate rise, so the work zone is also regarded as one of the bottle neck section of freeway.
Freeway workzone causes lane change, which lead to the traffic flow characteristicsmore complex than the normal basic segment. Vehicles deceleration, vehicles forced merge,traffic distribution again and the mutual interference among the construction personnel,equipment and vehicles have obvious effect on flow characteristics, are the main reasons ofinduced freeway accidents. Therefore, researching the traffic operation rules, calculate roadcapacity and analysis of traffic safety risk in freeway work zone, which provide basictheoretical basis and technical support for the freeway work zone about traffic managementand security measures, have some practical significance.In this paper, taking the ShanxiProvincial Communications Department of Science and Technology Project "the forthsub-item of study of loess area freeway expansion key technologies "as the basis, the maincontent includes two parts: the traffic characteristics research and the work zone safety riskanalysis.
In work zone traffic characteristics research, this paper analyzes traffic headway andspeed of the two traffic flow parameters, operation rules and the work zone traffic flowdistribution models are studied. In the aspect of headway distribution rules, according to thedistribution characteristics of traffic flow in the work zone, statistical analysis of the headwayare carried out and the change rules and influence factors of the headway are analyzed. Basedon these rules and characteristics, the shifted weibull modified distribution model is put forward and the new shift coefficient is analyzed. According to the headway distribution rules,the traffic flow state of the research of the work zone is determined, the work zone trafficcapacities are caculated and compared with other domestic research results. About the speeddistribution rules of the work zone, basing on the field survy data, mixed traffic flow and thesingle traffic flow speed distribution characteristics are analyzed respectively, and speedvariation rules between different sections andvehicle types are studied. The research resultsindicate that traffic flow parameters along with the areas of the work zone show regularchanges, at the same time its traffic capacity significantly lower than the normal highwaybasic section, the following state appeared probably. In these cases, the speed changefrequently and traffic lane changing are the main causes of traffic conflicts between vehiclesin the work zones.
In the aspect of traffic conflicts, based on the research of traffic characteristics of thework zone, traffic conflict risk is analyzed, which including macro risk analysis andmicroscopic traffic conflict risk analysis. Based on the speed distribution rules, macro riskmethod and indexs, the macro risk analysis are carried out from the85th percentile speeddifferences and the relative risk degree, speed continuity and difference significant, the speedstandard deviation and the traffic accident rate. The results indicate that because the speedchanges obviously among the different areas and vehicle types of the work zone, the overalllevel of traffic safety of work zone is lower, especially the traffic accident risk degrees are onthe high side in the two areas of warning area and the buffer space.
In the micro conflict risk analysis, according to the vehicle trajectory in work zone, thetraffic conflicts can be categorized as following rear-end conflict, forced lane-changingconflict and squeeze lane-changing conflict. For the following rear-end conflict, the relationmodels between the time to collision function(TTC) and the deceleration are established afterthe study results obout driver’s characteristics in the condition of vehicle slowdown areintroduced. Then the TTC is divided into different grades, which are safety (TTC>12.0s),safer (7.0
高速公路施工区特殊的道路交通环境造成其交通流特征比正常基本路段更为复杂，车辆减速、车流强制性合流、车流重分布以及施工人员和设备与车流之间的相互干扰等对施工区交通特性均有明显的影响，是诱发高速公路交通事故的主要原因之一。因此，开展高速公路施工区交通运行规律研究、道路通行能力计算和安全风险分析为交通管理和安全保障措施提供基础理论依据和技术支持，具有一定的实践意义。本文以陕西省交通厅科技项目黄土地区高速公路改扩建关键技术研究子项目四为依托，主体内容分为施工区交通特性研究和施工区安全风险分析两大部分。
在施工区交通特性研究方面，本文重点分析了车头时距和车速两项交通流参数，对施工区交通流运行规律和分布模型进行了深入研究。施工区车头时距分布规律方面，根据车流在施工区的集散特征，对车头时距进行统计分析，分析施工区车头时距的变化规律及其影响因素。基于此本文进一步提出移位韦布尔修正分布模型并对新增移位系数取值进行分析。论文根据车头时距的分布规律确定所研究施工区的交通运行状态，计算施工区道路通行能力并与国内其他研究结果进行对比。施工区运行车速分布规律方面，论文根据大量调查数据分别分析了施工区混合车流和单一车流车速分布特性和不同区段、车型之间的车速变化规律。研究结果表明，交通流参数随着施工区各区段呈现规律性变化，同时道路通行能力比正常高速公路基本路段明显偏低，车流极易出现跟驰状态，在上述情况下，车速变化频繁和车流换道是施工区车辆间产生交通冲突的主要原因之一。
施工区安全风险分析方面，论文以施工区交通特性为研究基础对施工区进行安全风险分析，包括宏观风险分析和微观交通冲突风险分析。论文基于施工区车速分布规律，宏观风险分析方法和指标，从第85%位车速差V85与相对事故风险度，车速连续性及差异显著性和车速标准差与交通事故率等三个方面进行宏观风险分析。研究结果表明：由于施工区不同区段断面之间车速变化幅度较大和不同车型之间速度差异性较大，造成施工区交通安全的整体水平偏低，尤其是警告区、上游过渡区和作业区的道路交通事故风险度偏高。
微观冲突风险分析方面，本文根据车辆在施工区的运行轨迹，对施工区冲突点进行分析并归类为：跟驰追尾冲突、强制性换道冲突和合流挤车换道冲突。对于跟驰追尾冲突，论文引入在车辆减速情况下驾驶人特性的相关研究结果，建立了碰撞时间函数（TTC）与减速度之间的关系模型并以此对施工区TTC的不同等级进行划分（安全：>12.0s、较为安全：7.0~12.0s、一般冲突：4.0~7.0s和严重冲突：<4.0s）。根据划分结果，对施工区的上游过渡区和作业区进行了跟驰追尾冲突风险分析，结果表明：上游过渡区和缓冲区的跟驰追尾冲突风险性较高。强制性换道冲突风险方面，论文给出了施工区限速建议值并根据超速车辆的比例进行风险分析。挤车换道冲突风险方面，根据冲突产生的临界条件，结合微观交通流特点和车辆最大减速度分布规律，对不同车速情况下挤车换道的冲突风险等级进行划分（安全、较为安全、一般冲突、严重冲突）。
By the end of2011，the total highway mileage reached4,106,000kilometers, whichinclude106,000kilometers of the ordinary state road and64,000kilometers of nationalfreeways. With the national freeway mileage increase and early built freeways have routinemaintenance, repair or reconstruction project gradully, freeway work zone has been as animportant part of the freeway system. As the freeway work zone usually doesn’t interrupt thedaily traffic, the work zone interferes with the daily traffic flow, causing traffic problemsbecome even more obvious. The main problems include road capacity reduction and accidentrate rise, so the work zone is also regarded as one of the bottle neck section of freeway.
Freeway workzone causes lane change, which lead to the traffic flow characteristicsmore complex than the normal basic segment. Vehicles deceleration, vehicles forced merge,traffic distribution again and the mutual interference among the construction personnel,equipment and vehicles have obvious effect on flow characteristics, are the main reasons ofinduced freeway accidents. Therefore, researching the traffic operation rules, calculate roadcapacity and analysis of traffic safety risk in freeway work zone, which provide basictheoretical basis and technical support for the freeway work zone about traffic managementand security measures, have some practical significance.In this paper, taking the ShanxiProvincial Communications Department of Science and Technology Project "the forthsub-item of study of loess area freeway expansion key technologies "as the basis, the maincontent includes two parts: the traffic characteristics research and the work zone safety riskanalysis.
In work zone traffic characteristics research, this paper analyzes traffic headway andspeed of the two traffic flow parameters, operation rules and the work zone traffic flowdistribution models are studied. In the aspect of headway distribution rules, according to thedistribution characteristics of traffic flow in the work zone, statistical analysis of the headwayare carried out and the change rules and influence factors of the headway are analyzed. Basedon these rules and characteristics, the shifted weibull modified distribution model is put forward and the new shift coefficient is analyzed. According to the headway distribution rules,the traffic flow state of the research of the work zone is determined, the work zone trafficcapacities are caculated and compared with other domestic research results. About the speeddistribution rules of the work zone, basing on the field survy data, mixed traffic flow and thesingle traffic flow speed distribution characteristics are analyzed respectively, and speedvariation rules between different sections andvehicle types are studied. The research resultsindicate that traffic flow parameters along with the areas of the work zone show regularchanges, at the same time its traffic capacity significantly lower than the normal highwaybasic section, the following state appeared probably. In these cases, the speed changefrequently and traffic lane changing are the main causes of traffic conflicts between vehiclesin the work zones.
In the aspect of traffic conflicts, based on the research of traffic characteristics of thework zone, traffic conflict risk is analyzed, which including macro risk analysis andmicroscopic traffic conflict risk analysis. Based on the speed distribution rules, macro riskmethod and indexs, the macro risk analysis are carried out from the85th percentile speeddifferences and the relative risk degree, speed continuity and difference significant, the speedstandard deviation and the traffic accident rate. The results indicate that because the speedchanges obviously among the different areas and vehicle types of the work zone, the overalllevel of traffic safety of work zone is lower, especially the traffic accident risk degrees are onthe high side in the two areas of warning area and the buffer space.
In the micro conflict risk analysis, according to the vehicle trajectory in work zone, thetraffic conflicts can be categorized as following rear-end conflict, forced lane-changingconflict and squeeze lane-changing conflict. For the following rear-end conflict, the relationmodels between the time to collision function(TTC) and the deceleration are established afterthe study results obout driver’s characteristics in the condition of vehicle slowdown areintroduced. Then the TTC is divided into different grades, which are safety (TTC>12.0s),safer (7.0
引文
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