重庆农村土地交易所地票交易风险及防范研究
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摘要
重庆是一个集大城市、大农村、大库区、大山区和民族地区于一体的直辖市。自1997年直辖以来,重庆各项经济指标获得了巨大的提高,但重庆城乡二元结构矛盾仍然突出,城乡收入差距仍然较大,同时经济发展带来的城市空间的扩张,对地区农村资源造成了巨大的压力。2007年经国家批准,重庆市正式成为国家统筹城乡综合配套改革试验区。统筹城乡综合配套改革内容之一就是建立统筹城乡的土地利用制度。针对重庆城乡土地利用出现的问题,如何充分利用农村闲置的土地资源,成为改革的一个关注点。2008年国土资源部支持重庆探索集中使用土地整理专项资金,推动土地整理,试验城乡建设用地流转,建立城乡土地交易市场。同年重庆市农村土地交易所挂牌成立,标志着地票交易制度正式启动。作为土地管理制度方面的一个创新,地票交易制度创新了土地利用机制,开辟了以城带乡、以工促农的新途径,但同任何一项制度创新一样,在实践中也面临了一些问题和风险,这必将影响地票交易制度的正常运行和发展。正是基于此,本论文开展了对地票交易制度的风险及防范研究。西方发达国家在实现工业化、城市化过程中也面临着如何有效地保护耕地、公共空间、具有历史和文化价值的地区以及具有特别经济价值的自然景观等的问题。国外研究主要从土地展权角度来解决上述问题,研究的侧重点主要从土地发展权的理论意义、土地所有者权利、市场结构和运行的角度对土地发展权进行了研究。西方发达国家所广泛采用的土地发展权转移制度对地票交易制度的产生提供了一些借鉴,但两者也存在很大不同。国内对地票交易制度的研究研究主要从地票交易制度运行的风险、积极意义和困境进行了分析。对地票交易制度本身的风险防范研究尚处于起步阶段。本论文以现行的地票交易制度风险为研究对象,采用地票交易制度运行诊断至地票交易制度风险识别至地票交易制度风险评估至地票交易制度风险应对策略至地票交易制度风险防范体系构建的设计思路。对地票交易制度这个新生制度本身潜在的风险,而不是制度实际运行或操作中因受人们行为影响而导致的风险进行分析研究,揭示了风险来源和发生的机理、影响机制,评估了风险的大小及重要程度,探索了规避风险的路径和方法,设计了风险防范体系并提出了政策建议。论文的研究成果将为完善地票交易制度提供更为有利的决策依据,对重庆市及全国统筹城乡土地管理制度改革提供重要的理论和现实意义。
1.评价了地票交易制度的总体运行成效及不足
地票交易制度自运行以来,取得了明显的社会、经济、生态效益。一是创新了农村集体建设用地与城镇建设用地置换模式,建立城乡统一的土地要素市场；二是显化了农村土地价值,为农民增加了148亿元的财产性收入,并优化了农村土地空间布局；三是以“先补后占”替代“先征后补”的建设占用耕地的占补平衡模式,补充耕地7.66万亩,有利于重庆市坚守3256万亩的耕地保有量、实现耕地占补平衡。总体来说,该项制度的运行对重庆市统筹城乡发展起到了巨大的推动作用,做出了显著的贡献。尽管地票交易制度取得了一定的成效,但同任何一项制度创新一样,在运行过程仍存在一定的不足,需要在改革实践中逐步完善。一是地票制度前期探索中缺乏一些上位法的依据；二是价格形成机制的理论依据有待探索；三是收益机制仍需进一步完善。地票交易制度运行中存在的不足暴露了地票交易制度仍存在一定的风险,一定程度上影响地票交易制度的正常运行和发展,应探清地票交易制度面临的风险,并建立地票交易制度风险防范控制体系。
2.定性识别了地票交易制度风险
从风险识别涵义、内容和原则出发,运用头脑风暴法、德尔菲法以及针对地票交易制度的特点提出的DSP制度风险研究技术体系,定性识别了地票交易制度的风险。三种方法对影响地票交易制度运行可能产生的风险问题是一致的,即对耕地保护风险、对国家宏观调控的风险、对房地产市场的风险、对欠发达地区用地保障的风险和对农民权益保护的风险。三种方法在深度和广度识别风险点上有区别。头脑风暴法以专家对地票交易制度风险的主观分析为依据,进行预测和分析。不易将不容易觉察的风险源和风险事件识别出来。德尔菲法虽然能够识别出不易觉察的风险,但由于专家的时间紧张,存在风险点识别结果不太深入的现象。创新性地对DSP制度风险研究技术体系的应用可对制度风险进行了一个全方位、系统性的分析。对三种方法识别的风险点进行筛选之后得出16个风险点,包括对耕地占补平衡的影响、对耕地问题动态平衡的影响、对国家土地管理的影响、对国家新增建设用地量的影响、对城乡建设用地空间管制的影响、对城市土地供给的影响、可能出现房地产市场垄断行为、可能造成建设用地成本增加推高房价、可能造成房地产市场供应量增加从而影响市场、未充分考虑农村自身发展需求、对产生地自身发展造成消极影响、不利于小城镇用地保障、农民的复垦主体地位有待提升、农村宅基地社会保障功能需进一步考虑、地票落地区农民权益未得到充分保障和地票落地区征地补偿的合理性值得斟酌。在定性识别地票交易制度风险结果的基础上,对各风险点进行一一分析研究。
3.定量评估了地票交易制度风险
采用层次分析法、模糊分析法、综合评价法等方法对地票制度风险进行定量评估。根据风险评估结果,地票交易制度系统综合风险值为0.38,与风险等级对照表相对照,风险影响程度较低,其风险尚处于可控状态。按照风险发生的可能性进行排序,5方面风险可依次排序为：对农民权益保护的风险、对耕地保护的风险、对国家宏观调控的风险、对房地产市场的风险、对欠发达地区用地保障的风险,其风险值分别为0.171、0.0827、0.0633、0.036、0.0226。16个风险点中按严重程度排名前5位的是：农村宅基地社会保障未充分考虑、农民复垦的主体地位有待提升、对耕地总量动态平衡的影响、地票落地区农民权益未得到充分保障和对国家新增建设用地量的影响。为进一步分析农民权益保护这一最大风险源的风险因了,以北碚为例构建OP模型进行实证分析。分析结果发现农村宅基地社会保障对农民权益保护的风险负向影响最大,再一次印证了农村宅基地社会保障这风险点对地票交易制度风险的影响程度是最大的并提出了要尊重农民意愿,确立农民地票交易过程中的主体地位,建立科学合理的收益分配补偿机制和积极探索新型长效的社会保障制度的建议。
4.提出了地票交易制度风险防范策略
针对5大风险相对于地票交易制度风险的风险影响程度,提出风险防范策略。如“确立农民主体地位”、“探索合理的收益分配补偿机制”、“完善地票价款使用监管机制”、“强化复垦设计与验收环节”、“出台耕地等级折算办法”、“合理控制年度地票交易规模”、“建立“地票+计划指标”相结合的土地供应调控体系”、“确定合理的地票“打包”方式”、“统筹配置各类建设用地指标”、“合理细分地票指标”、“增强农村持续发展能力”等等方面的具体风险响应策略来防范、控制。
5.设计了地票交易制度风险防范体系
借鉴风险管理学以及系统工程学,为进一步防范地票交易制度运行中出现的新风险,完善地票交易制度,设计地票交易制度风险防范体系。地票交易制度风险防范体系是一个包括组织体系、监测体系和评估体系的循环体系。
6.提出了保障地票交易制度风险防范体系有效运行的建议
为保证地票交易制度风险防范体系有效运行,有针对性的提出“重视地票交易制度前期基础工作”、“完善地票交易管理机制”、“开展地票交易运行关键技术研究”、“加强地票交易制度与现行相关制度的衔接”、“建立地票交易信息系统”等方面的建议。
综上所述,本论文适应目前所需,撇开从制度创新、法律性质、积极意义等角度分析地票交易制度,另辟蹊径,从制度层面出发,研究地票交易制度这个新生制度本身存在或潜在的风险,而不是制度实际运行或操作中因受人们行为的影响而导致的风险,这在地票风险研究中尚属首次,具有一定的创新价值。将地票交易制度风险的识别、评估以及防范等方面作为一个整体来考虑,整个研究的结构性、系统性较强。定性分析、定量评估了重庆十地交易所地票交易的风险并构建了地票交易制度风险防范体系,对未来地票交易制度风险的防范起到一定程度作用。地票交易制度是一新生事物,制度的构建被实践检验是一个长期的过程。目前对出现的问题的防范,不代表能够防范新问题的出现。现在本论文已将模型建立起来了,不足的是里面的因子会发生变化,需要今后在此基础上进一步地进行完善和扩展。
Chongqing is the municipalities directly under the central government, which is a large city, big country, big area, mountain area and minority area, Since1997the each economic norms of Chongqing achieved great improvement, but the structure contradiction between urban and rural areas is so highlighted, the income gap between urban and rural areas is still large, and at the same time the city space expansion which brought by the economic development on rural resources has caused tremendous pressure. In2007, Chongqing officially became the national coordinating urban and rural comprehensive reform pilot area approved by the state. The establishment of urban and rural land use system is the one of contents in the urban and rural comprehensive reform. According to the problems of the Chongqing urban and rural land use, how to make full use idle rural land has become a very important reform question. In2008, the Ministry of land and resources supported Chongqing to explore some questions, such as how to use the funds of land consolidation, how to promote land consolidation development, how to transfer the constructive land between urban and rural, how to establish the market of urban and rural land transaction. In the same year Chongqing rural land exchange was established, marked the beginning of the land ticket transaction system. As a system innovation in land management, the land ticket transaction system was not only an innovation system in land use, but also a way of city to a rural zone in order to promote agro. No single system could solve every problem and risk, so many problems and risks in the land ticket transaction system must be revealed. Based on this, this thesis researched how to prevent the problem and risk in the land ticket transaction system. In the period of industrialization and urbanism in western developed country, some problems were revealed, such as how to protect farmland effectively, public space, with historical and cultural value and economic value of the areas which had special natural landscape and other problems. How to solve the above problems mainly from the land development rights abroad, the emphasis of the study mainly from land development right theory, land ownership rights, market structure and operational. The system of risk prevention research is still in its initial stage, and the research on the risks and prevention in the land ticket transaction system is nearly blank strip. So this thesis researched the risks in the land ticket transaction system, the thinking of research is that diagnosed risks in the land ticket transaction system firstly, identified the risks in the land ticket transaction system secondly, assessed the risks in the land ticket transaction system thirdly, rendered advice according to the risk analysis in the land ticket transaction fourthly, built up the risk prevention system of the land ticket transaction system finally. And the thesis researched the system risks in the land ticket transaction system itself, rather than the risks that influenced by the practical operation or people behavior, revealed the risk sources and operation mechanism, assessed the risk value and importance of the risk, explored the paths and methods to prevent the risk, designed the risk prevention system and putted forward policy suggestions. The research results will perfect the ticket transaction system and provide the important theory and the practical significance.
1. To evaluate the land ticket transaction system running efficiency and deficiency
The land ticket transaction system had achieved obvious social, economic, ecological benefit. One is the innovation of land replacement model between rural collective construction land and urban construction land, and set up a unified urban and rural land market. Two is to manifest the value of rural land, to increase income and property for farmers and to optimize the rural land space layout; Three is that land reclamation first and then expropriation of the land to replace firstly expropriating the land and then land reclamation, not only helped to supply farmland76600mus, but also to maintain32560000acres of farmland quantity in Chongqing. Generally, the operating of the land ticket transaction system has played a tremendous role in promoting, made a significant contribution. Although the ticket system has obtained certain result, but with any institutional innovation, there are still some deficiencies in the practice, needed to gradually improve. A preliminary exploration of the land ticket system is lack of some of the upper law basis; two is that the price formation mechanism theories need to be explored; three is that the accrual mechanism still needs further improvement. In the land ticket transaction system some deficiencies were exposed, which influenced the land ticket transaction system's normal operation and development on certain level. So we should research these risks, and establish the risk prevention control system in the land ticket transaction system.
2. To qualitatively identify the land ticket transaction system risk
From risk identification meaning, content and principle, using the brainstorming, Delphi method and the DSP system risk technology system, we qualitatively identify the land ticket transaction system risk. The points of view were just that the problems affected on land ticket transaction system were consistent in the three methods. There are five risk factors for land tickets system: farmland protection risks, the risk of national macro-control, the impact of the real estate market risk, the risk of coordinating urban and rural areas and the risk of protecting the interests of farmers. Three methods in breadth and depth are different. Brainstormings predict and analyze the land ticket transaction system risk by subjective analysis. It can't analyze some risks that not easy to be detected. Delphi method can identify the risks that not easy to be detected, but because the experts'time is so limited, the detected risks are not comprehensive. DSP system risk of technology system was applied on the system risk, which could analyze the system risks comprehensively and systematically. There were16risk points, the balance of cultivated land effect, arable land dynamic balance effect, national land management influence, the influence of amount of newly increased construction land, the urban and rural construction land use spatial regulation, the city land supply, real estate market monopoly, increased costs push construction land high prices, the real estate market supply increases, the market does not fully consider the rural development needs, to produce their own development caused negative effects, is not conducive to the protection of farmers'land use of small towns, the reclamation of subject status, to promote rural land social security function need further considered, farmer'rights and interests are not guaranteed in the land tickets landing area and fall in compensation for land expropriation and requisition rationality is worth considering. The results that qualitatively identified by risk identification methods can supply the study of the risk points.
3. To quantitatively identify the land ticket transaction system risk
Using analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy analysis method and comprehensive evaluation method, the thesis quantitatively assess the risks in the land ticket transaction system. According to the results of the risk assessment, the land ticket transaction system integrated risk value was0.38, and contrasted with the risk grade table, the risk to a lesser extent, the risk is still in a controllable state. In accordance with the possibility of risk ranking,5risks can be ranked as:the risk of protecting the interests of farmers, farmland protection risks, the risk of national macro-control, the impact of the real estate market risk, the risk of coordinating urban and rural areas, the risk values were0.171,0.0827,0.0633,0.036and0.0226. According to the risk value, the following five risks are greater: the risk that does not take full account of the rural homestead security in the index layer, the risk that does not fully reflect the dominant position of reclamation of farmers, the risk of dynamic balance of total arable land, the risk that does not fully guarantee farmers'rights and interests in land tickets to landing areas, and the impact risk of national planning indicators. For further analysis the risk that does not take full account of the rural homestead security in the index layer, the thesis take Beibei as an example. The results showed that the risk that does not take full account of the rural homestead security in the index layer is the biggest negative impact on the risk of protecting the interests of farmers.And the thesis put forward to the point of view that it's very necessary to respect the wishes of farmers and establish a scientific and reasonable income distribution mechanism and to actively explore new effective social security system.
4. To put forward to ticket trading system risk prevention strategy
According to the5major risks degree of influence, the thesis put forward the risk prevention strategy. Such as " establish the main body position of the peasants "," explore reasonable income distribution mechanism of compensation "," perfect the land ticket price supervision mechanism "," strengthen reclamation design and acceptance link "," develop Farmland Grade conversion approach"," reasonable control of annual ticket transaction scale "," build ticket+plan index "," reasonable package "," overall allocation of construction land index "," reasonable subdivision to ticket index "," strengthen rural sustainable development ability'
5. To design the risk prevention system on the land ticket transaction system
From risk management and systems engineering, in order to further prevent the risks on the land ticket transaction system, improve the land ticket transaction system; design the risk prevention system on the land ticket transaction system. The land ticket transaction system of risk prevention system mainly includes organization system, a monitoring system and an assessment system.
6. To put forward some suggestions that can ensure the land ticket transaction system against system risks
In order to ensure the land ticket transaction risk prevention system run effectively, put forward some suggestions such as " attention to the base works of the land ticket transaction system "," perfect the land ticket transaction management mechanism "," carry out the operation of key technology research"" strengthen land ticket transaction system and current related system convergence "," building the land ticket transaction transaction information system ".
Given all that, this thesis meet the required, brush aside system innovation, legal nature, significance analysis of the land ticket transaction system, set out from system level, research the potential or itself risk in the land ticket transaction system, rather than the risks that the system practical operation or operation effected by people behavior effect lead to the risk. It is the first time this kind of the land ticket transaction system risk research has been studied. So the research has creative value. The risk appraisal, risk identification and risk prevention as a whole, the study is very systematic and structural. Qualitative analysis, quantitative evaluation of Chongqing land exchange in the land ticket transaction risk and constructing the risk prevention system of the land ticket transaction system, which is benefit for the land ticket transaction system. The land ticket transaction system is a new thing; system construction is a long process in practice. At present, the risk prevention doesn't prevent the emergence of new problems. Now this thesis has established the model, but the factors in the land ticket transaction system will change. So we need further on this foundation to improve and expand.
1.评价了地票交易制度的总体运行成效及不足
地票交易制度自运行以来,取得了明显的社会、经济、生态效益。一是创新了农村集体建设用地与城镇建设用地置换模式,建立城乡统一的土地要素市场；二是显化了农村土地价值,为农民增加了148亿元的财产性收入,并优化了农村土地空间布局；三是以“先补后占”替代“先征后补”的建设占用耕地的占补平衡模式,补充耕地7.66万亩,有利于重庆市坚守3256万亩的耕地保有量、实现耕地占补平衡。总体来说,该项制度的运行对重庆市统筹城乡发展起到了巨大的推动作用,做出了显著的贡献。尽管地票交易制度取得了一定的成效,但同任何一项制度创新一样,在运行过程仍存在一定的不足,需要在改革实践中逐步完善。一是地票制度前期探索中缺乏一些上位法的依据；二是价格形成机制的理论依据有待探索；三是收益机制仍需进一步完善。地票交易制度运行中存在的不足暴露了地票交易制度仍存在一定的风险,一定程度上影响地票交易制度的正常运行和发展,应探清地票交易制度面临的风险,并建立地票交易制度风险防范控制体系。
2.定性识别了地票交易制度风险
从风险识别涵义、内容和原则出发,运用头脑风暴法、德尔菲法以及针对地票交易制度的特点提出的DSP制度风险研究技术体系,定性识别了地票交易制度的风险。三种方法对影响地票交易制度运行可能产生的风险问题是一致的,即对耕地保护风险、对国家宏观调控的风险、对房地产市场的风险、对欠发达地区用地保障的风险和对农民权益保护的风险。三种方法在深度和广度识别风险点上有区别。头脑风暴法以专家对地票交易制度风险的主观分析为依据,进行预测和分析。不易将不容易觉察的风险源和风险事件识别出来。德尔菲法虽然能够识别出不易觉察的风险,但由于专家的时间紧张,存在风险点识别结果不太深入的现象。创新性地对DSP制度风险研究技术体系的应用可对制度风险进行了一个全方位、系统性的分析。对三种方法识别的风险点进行筛选之后得出16个风险点,包括对耕地占补平衡的影响、对耕地问题动态平衡的影响、对国家土地管理的影响、对国家新增建设用地量的影响、对城乡建设用地空间管制的影响、对城市土地供给的影响、可能出现房地产市场垄断行为、可能造成建设用地成本增加推高房价、可能造成房地产市场供应量增加从而影响市场、未充分考虑农村自身发展需求、对产生地自身发展造成消极影响、不利于小城镇用地保障、农民的复垦主体地位有待提升、农村宅基地社会保障功能需进一步考虑、地票落地区农民权益未得到充分保障和地票落地区征地补偿的合理性值得斟酌。在定性识别地票交易制度风险结果的基础上,对各风险点进行一一分析研究。
3.定量评估了地票交易制度风险
采用层次分析法、模糊分析法、综合评价法等方法对地票制度风险进行定量评估。根据风险评估结果,地票交易制度系统综合风险值为0.38,与风险等级对照表相对照,风险影响程度较低,其风险尚处于可控状态。按照风险发生的可能性进行排序,5方面风险可依次排序为：对农民权益保护的风险、对耕地保护的风险、对国家宏观调控的风险、对房地产市场的风险、对欠发达地区用地保障的风险,其风险值分别为0.171、0.0827、0.0633、0.036、0.0226。16个风险点中按严重程度排名前5位的是：农村宅基地社会保障未充分考虑、农民复垦的主体地位有待提升、对耕地总量动态平衡的影响、地票落地区农民权益未得到充分保障和对国家新增建设用地量的影响。为进一步分析农民权益保护这一最大风险源的风险因了,以北碚为例构建OP模型进行实证分析。分析结果发现农村宅基地社会保障对农民权益保护的风险负向影响最大,再一次印证了农村宅基地社会保障这风险点对地票交易制度风险的影响程度是最大的并提出了要尊重农民意愿,确立农民地票交易过程中的主体地位,建立科学合理的收益分配补偿机制和积极探索新型长效的社会保障制度的建议。
4.提出了地票交易制度风险防范策略
针对5大风险相对于地票交易制度风险的风险影响程度,提出风险防范策略。如“确立农民主体地位”、“探索合理的收益分配补偿机制”、“完善地票价款使用监管机制”、“强化复垦设计与验收环节”、“出台耕地等级折算办法”、“合理控制年度地票交易规模”、“建立“地票+计划指标”相结合的土地供应调控体系”、“确定合理的地票“打包”方式”、“统筹配置各类建设用地指标”、“合理细分地票指标”、“增强农村持续发展能力”等等方面的具体风险响应策略来防范、控制。
5.设计了地票交易制度风险防范体系
借鉴风险管理学以及系统工程学,为进一步防范地票交易制度运行中出现的新风险,完善地票交易制度,设计地票交易制度风险防范体系。地票交易制度风险防范体系是一个包括组织体系、监测体系和评估体系的循环体系。
6.提出了保障地票交易制度风险防范体系有效运行的建议
为保证地票交易制度风险防范体系有效运行,有针对性的提出“重视地票交易制度前期基础工作”、“完善地票交易管理机制”、“开展地票交易运行关键技术研究”、“加强地票交易制度与现行相关制度的衔接”、“建立地票交易信息系统”等方面的建议。
综上所述,本论文适应目前所需,撇开从制度创新、法律性质、积极意义等角度分析地票交易制度,另辟蹊径,从制度层面出发,研究地票交易制度这个新生制度本身存在或潜在的风险,而不是制度实际运行或操作中因受人们行为的影响而导致的风险,这在地票风险研究中尚属首次,具有一定的创新价值。将地票交易制度风险的识别、评估以及防范等方面作为一个整体来考虑,整个研究的结构性、系统性较强。定性分析、定量评估了重庆十地交易所地票交易的风险并构建了地票交易制度风险防范体系,对未来地票交易制度风险的防范起到一定程度作用。地票交易制度是一新生事物,制度的构建被实践检验是一个长期的过程。目前对出现的问题的防范,不代表能够防范新问题的出现。现在本论文已将模型建立起来了,不足的是里面的因子会发生变化,需要今后在此基础上进一步地进行完善和扩展。
Chongqing is the municipalities directly under the central government, which is a large city, big country, big area, mountain area and minority area, Since1997the each economic norms of Chongqing achieved great improvement, but the structure contradiction between urban and rural areas is so highlighted, the income gap between urban and rural areas is still large, and at the same time the city space expansion which brought by the economic development on rural resources has caused tremendous pressure. In2007, Chongqing officially became the national coordinating urban and rural comprehensive reform pilot area approved by the state. The establishment of urban and rural land use system is the one of contents in the urban and rural comprehensive reform. According to the problems of the Chongqing urban and rural land use, how to make full use idle rural land has become a very important reform question. In2008, the Ministry of land and resources supported Chongqing to explore some questions, such as how to use the funds of land consolidation, how to promote land consolidation development, how to transfer the constructive land between urban and rural, how to establish the market of urban and rural land transaction. In the same year Chongqing rural land exchange was established, marked the beginning of the land ticket transaction system. As a system innovation in land management, the land ticket transaction system was not only an innovation system in land use, but also a way of city to a rural zone in order to promote agro. No single system could solve every problem and risk, so many problems and risks in the land ticket transaction system must be revealed. Based on this, this thesis researched how to prevent the problem and risk in the land ticket transaction system. In the period of industrialization and urbanism in western developed country, some problems were revealed, such as how to protect farmland effectively, public space, with historical and cultural value and economic value of the areas which had special natural landscape and other problems. How to solve the above problems mainly from the land development rights abroad, the emphasis of the study mainly from land development right theory, land ownership rights, market structure and operational. The system of risk prevention research is still in its initial stage, and the research on the risks and prevention in the land ticket transaction system is nearly blank strip. So this thesis researched the risks in the land ticket transaction system, the thinking of research is that diagnosed risks in the land ticket transaction system firstly, identified the risks in the land ticket transaction system secondly, assessed the risks in the land ticket transaction system thirdly, rendered advice according to the risk analysis in the land ticket transaction fourthly, built up the risk prevention system of the land ticket transaction system finally. And the thesis researched the system risks in the land ticket transaction system itself, rather than the risks that influenced by the practical operation or people behavior, revealed the risk sources and operation mechanism, assessed the risk value and importance of the risk, explored the paths and methods to prevent the risk, designed the risk prevention system and putted forward policy suggestions. The research results will perfect the ticket transaction system and provide the important theory and the practical significance.
1. To evaluate the land ticket transaction system running efficiency and deficiency
The land ticket transaction system had achieved obvious social, economic, ecological benefit. One is the innovation of land replacement model between rural collective construction land and urban construction land, and set up a unified urban and rural land market. Two is to manifest the value of rural land, to increase income and property for farmers and to optimize the rural land space layout; Three is that land reclamation first and then expropriation of the land to replace firstly expropriating the land and then land reclamation, not only helped to supply farmland76600mus, but also to maintain32560000acres of farmland quantity in Chongqing. Generally, the operating of the land ticket transaction system has played a tremendous role in promoting, made a significant contribution. Although the ticket system has obtained certain result, but with any institutional innovation, there are still some deficiencies in the practice, needed to gradually improve. A preliminary exploration of the land ticket system is lack of some of the upper law basis; two is that the price formation mechanism theories need to be explored; three is that the accrual mechanism still needs further improvement. In the land ticket transaction system some deficiencies were exposed, which influenced the land ticket transaction system's normal operation and development on certain level. So we should research these risks, and establish the risk prevention control system in the land ticket transaction system.
2. To qualitatively identify the land ticket transaction system risk
From risk identification meaning, content and principle, using the brainstorming, Delphi method and the DSP system risk technology system, we qualitatively identify the land ticket transaction system risk. The points of view were just that the problems affected on land ticket transaction system were consistent in the three methods. There are five risk factors for land tickets system: farmland protection risks, the risk of national macro-control, the impact of the real estate market risk, the risk of coordinating urban and rural areas and the risk of protecting the interests of farmers. Three methods in breadth and depth are different. Brainstormings predict and analyze the land ticket transaction system risk by subjective analysis. It can't analyze some risks that not easy to be detected. Delphi method can identify the risks that not easy to be detected, but because the experts'time is so limited, the detected risks are not comprehensive. DSP system risk of technology system was applied on the system risk, which could analyze the system risks comprehensively and systematically. There were16risk points, the balance of cultivated land effect, arable land dynamic balance effect, national land management influence, the influence of amount of newly increased construction land, the urban and rural construction land use spatial regulation, the city land supply, real estate market monopoly, increased costs push construction land high prices, the real estate market supply increases, the market does not fully consider the rural development needs, to produce their own development caused negative effects, is not conducive to the protection of farmers'land use of small towns, the reclamation of subject status, to promote rural land social security function need further considered, farmer'rights and interests are not guaranteed in the land tickets landing area and fall in compensation for land expropriation and requisition rationality is worth considering. The results that qualitatively identified by risk identification methods can supply the study of the risk points.
3. To quantitatively identify the land ticket transaction system risk
Using analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy analysis method and comprehensive evaluation method, the thesis quantitatively assess the risks in the land ticket transaction system. According to the results of the risk assessment, the land ticket transaction system integrated risk value was0.38, and contrasted with the risk grade table, the risk to a lesser extent, the risk is still in a controllable state. In accordance with the possibility of risk ranking,5risks can be ranked as:the risk of protecting the interests of farmers, farmland protection risks, the risk of national macro-control, the impact of the real estate market risk, the risk of coordinating urban and rural areas, the risk values were0.171,0.0827,0.0633,0.036and0.0226. According to the risk value, the following five risks are greater: the risk that does not take full account of the rural homestead security in the index layer, the risk that does not fully reflect the dominant position of reclamation of farmers, the risk of dynamic balance of total arable land, the risk that does not fully guarantee farmers'rights and interests in land tickets to landing areas, and the impact risk of national planning indicators. For further analysis the risk that does not take full account of the rural homestead security in the index layer, the thesis take Beibei as an example. The results showed that the risk that does not take full account of the rural homestead security in the index layer is the biggest negative impact on the risk of protecting the interests of farmers.And the thesis put forward to the point of view that it's very necessary to respect the wishes of farmers and establish a scientific and reasonable income distribution mechanism and to actively explore new effective social security system.
4. To put forward to ticket trading system risk prevention strategy
According to the5major risks degree of influence, the thesis put forward the risk prevention strategy. Such as " establish the main body position of the peasants "," explore reasonable income distribution mechanism of compensation "," perfect the land ticket price supervision mechanism "," strengthen reclamation design and acceptance link "," develop Farmland Grade conversion approach"," reasonable control of annual ticket transaction scale "," build ticket+plan index "," reasonable package "," overall allocation of construction land index "," reasonable subdivision to ticket index "," strengthen rural sustainable development ability'
5. To design the risk prevention system on the land ticket transaction system
From risk management and systems engineering, in order to further prevent the risks on the land ticket transaction system, improve the land ticket transaction system; design the risk prevention system on the land ticket transaction system. The land ticket transaction system of risk prevention system mainly includes organization system, a monitoring system and an assessment system.
6. To put forward some suggestions that can ensure the land ticket transaction system against system risks
In order to ensure the land ticket transaction risk prevention system run effectively, put forward some suggestions such as " attention to the base works of the land ticket transaction system "," perfect the land ticket transaction management mechanism "," carry out the operation of key technology research"" strengthen land ticket transaction system and current related system convergence "," building the land ticket transaction transaction information system ".
Given all that, this thesis meet the required, brush aside system innovation, legal nature, significance analysis of the land ticket transaction system, set out from system level, research the potential or itself risk in the land ticket transaction system, rather than the risks that the system practical operation or operation effected by people behavior effect lead to the risk. It is the first time this kind of the land ticket transaction system risk research has been studied. So the research has creative value. The risk appraisal, risk identification and risk prevention as a whole, the study is very systematic and structural. Qualitative analysis, quantitative evaluation of Chongqing land exchange in the land ticket transaction risk and constructing the risk prevention system of the land ticket transaction system, which is benefit for the land ticket transaction system. The land ticket transaction system is a new thing; system construction is a long process in practice. At present, the risk prevention doesn't prevent the emergence of new problems. Now this thesis has established the model, but the factors in the land ticket transaction system will change. So we need further on this foundation to improve and expand.
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