信息化条件下营运车辆安全监管关键技术研究
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摘要
道路交通安全事故已成为威胁人类公共安全的最严重问题之一，引起世界各国的广泛关注。在道路交通事故中，营运车辆运行范围广，时间长，货物众多，客流量和物流量巨大，营运车辆的安全在道路交通安全中占据较大比例。
随着营运车辆急剧增长，现有人工监管方式缺乏对营运车辆安全规律的把握，已难以适应现代交通安全精细化管理的需要。由于交通安全监管系统本质是实时性高、协调性强的复杂系统，严重制约了对影响交通安全的关键因素（如超速、追尾等）的机理和规律的有效认知。目前，信息化与智能化已成为交通安全监管系统现代化的主要发展方向，通过提高营运车辆安全监管系统在感知、通信和控制之间的互联互通互操作能力，为认知交通安全监管的机理及规律提供了新的途径，同时，现代交通理论的发展也为上述问题的解决提供了新的契机。
因此，深入研究信息化条件下营运车辆安全监管的技术及其关键支撑理论，以科学的方法准确认知超速、追尾等交通安全现象，以先进的技术支撑营运车辆安全监管系统的发展，对于交通部门实施具有针对性的主动监管提供科学支持，具有重要的理论和实际意义。
本文主要围绕基于信息化条件下的营运车辆安全监管技术及其关键支撑理论展开研究。首先构建了信息化环境下的营运车辆安全监管体系，为营运车辆主动管控和参与者联动提供支撑。同时，重点围绕信息化环境下车辆运营安全体系评价技术、车辆超速规律和追尾机理方面亟待解决的关键问题，进行了深入系统的研究，以期从理论和工程应用两个角度突破，从而为科学评价、针对性地实施主动的营运车辆安全监管提供支撑手段和理论依据。
主要工作包括以下几个方面：
①在营运车辆安全监管体系方面，提出了一种具有信息反馈机制的安全监管体系框架，并在其指导下构建了基于GPS的“两客一危”监控系统。
针对交通管理部门、运输企业、司乘人员和应急救援部门在营运车辆监管中缺乏有效信息交互和协同联动机制的问题，首先，从数据驱动的角度出发，应用反馈控制思想，构建包含对象层、监管层、控制层和反馈层的道路交通安全监管体系框架。其次，以交通安全监管体系框架作为宏观指引，构建了一个典型的“两客一危”监控系统，并在重庆市典型高速公路进行部署应用，结果证明了其适用性，体现了该营运车辆安全监管体系具有重要工程应用价值。
②在营运车辆的安全评价方面，提出了一种基于熵权理论的运营车辆安全评价方法。
综合考虑了影响营运车辆的运营安全评价因素，基于熵的理论确定各因素的权值，然后运用模糊综合评判模型进行综合评价，得出其安全等级。通过把熵权法与模糊综合评价法结合，有效降低了人为因素对权重的影响。将该方法应用于重庆地区“两客一危”车辆运营安全分析，结果表明方法简单易行，评判结果具有科学性和合理性。
③在提取营运车辆运行特征方面，提出了一种基于DM技术的运营车辆超速规律分析方法。
针对目前难以有效掌握运营车辆超速行驶的规律，基于车载GPS实时监控数据，提出了将数据挖掘技术应用于运营车辆超速规律的分析方法，同时给出了一种基于地图匹配的数据预处理方法，对具有空间属性的数据进行预处理，并建立了四维数据仓库模型。在此基础上利用基于FP-树的关联规则挖掘算法及趋势分析方法，进行了初步的模式挖掘，得到了与决策有关的多种超速规律，为运管部门实施运营车辆的超速监管提供了有效支持和决策依据。
④针对营运车辆追尾问题，基于前后车作用关系，揭示了营运车辆追尾机理，并提出了基于多前车信息和基于前后车信息综合利用的车辆追尾抑制方法。
针对有效抑制和预防营运车辆追尾技术手段比较单一、车辆追尾机理成果还研究不够深入、以及预警系统采集信息种类、范围及依据的研究缺乏等问题，从前后车作用关系的全新角度，揭示了营运车辆追尾机理。在此基础上分别提出了利用多前车信息和前后车信息来抑制营运车辆追尾的措施，并采用数值仿真验证上述途径的有效性。
具体为：提出了基于多前车信息作用下的车辆运动模型-MAVD模型，其结果表明，通过充分利用多前车信息，可以扩大本车稳定裕量，从而抑制本车与前车追尾；提出了考虑前后车辆综合效应的车辆运行刻画建模——BL&OVD模型，研究结果表明通过前后车信息的综合与协同，能最大限度扩大车队稳定区域，从而抑制前后车追尾发生，且只需要采集前方两辆车的信息和后方一辆跟随车的信息就可以保持车辆运行在最佳状态，以保证追尾发生概率最低。
综上所述，本文充分融合信息技术和交通理论，构建了一套营运车辆安全监管体系，研究了基于熵权理论的运营车辆安全评价方法，提出了一种基于DM技术的运营车辆超速规律分析算法，探索了基于前后车大范围信息利用的营运车辆追尾机理分析和抑制方法，理论分析和实际应用验证了本文工作的有效性。
Road traffic accidents have become a threat to human public safety, and it iscaused by the widespread concern of the countries in the world. In the road trafficaccidents, due to commercial vehicle operating range is wide, running time is long, thegoods is numerous, passenger flow and through put are huge, commercial vehicle safetyaccounts for large portion of road traffic safety.
With the rapid growth in quantity of the commercial vehicles, it is difficult to meetthe demands of the modern traffic safety fine supervision demands for the existingartificial supervision way that is in lack of grasping of the commercial vehicle safetyrules. Due to the traffic safety supervision system is essentially of complex system withhigh real-time, strong coordination, these have seriously restricted the effectivecognition of the mechanism and regulation that influence traffic safety key factors (suchas overspeed, tailgating, etc.). Currently, informatization and intelligentization hasbecome the main development direction of modern traffic safety supervision system. Byimproving interconnection, interflow and interoperability of commercial vehicle safetysupervision system in perception, communication and control, which provides the newway to cognitive mechanism and law of the traffic safety supervision system.Meanwhile, the development of the modern traffic theory provides a new opportunity tosolve the above problem.
Therefore, we carry out a further study on the technology of commercial vehiclessafety supervision and its key supporting theories under information-based condition, sotraffic safety phenomenon (such as overspeed, tailgating) can be given an insight,accurately by scientific methods, the development of commercial vehicles safetysupervision system can be supported by advanced technology, scientific support foractive supervision implemention can be provided by traffic department, and these haveimportant theoretical and practical significance.
This paper chiefly focuses on the constructing of the commercial vehicles safetysupervision system and its key support theories under information-based condition.Firstly, constructing the commercial vehicle safety supervision system ininformation-based environment, and providing support for commercial vehicle activecontrol and participants’ link. Meanwhile, focusing on the key problem urgently besolved such as evaluation technology of commercial vehicle safety system, vehicle over-speed pattern and tailgating collision mechanism under information-basedenvironment, systematical research has been carried out so as to breakthrough fromtheory and engineering application, consequently, providing support means andtheoretical base for scientific evaluate, targeted implements of active commercialvehicle safety supervision.
The main work includes the following aspects:
①In commercial vehicle safe supervision system, the framework withinformation feedback mechanism of the safe supervision system is proposed, andbased on this, a "two passengers and a dangerous" vehicle real-time remotemonitoring system is constructed by GPS-based technology.
According to the traffic administrative department, transportation enterprises, thedrivers and conductors, emergency rescue departments in commercial vehiclesupervision lack effective information interaction and collaborative linkage mechanism,first of all, from the point of view of data driven, the road traffic safety managementsystem framework (includes object layer, supervision layer, control layer and feedbacklayer) is constructed based on feedback control idea. Secondly, and a typical "twopassengers and a dangerous" supervision system is constructed under the macroguidance of the traffic safety supervision system framework. The constructedcommercial vehicle safe supervision system has been applied to typical highway inChongqing region, and the results prove its applicability, and show the commercialvehicle safety supervision system has important engineering application value.
②In the safety evaluation of commercial vehicles, one vehicle safetyevaluation method is proposed based on entropy weight theory.
Considering the impact of "two passengers and a dangerous "vehicle operatingsafety assessment factors, based on the entropy theory to determine the weights ofvarious factors, then the use of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model forcomprehensive evaluation, the obtained level of security. In this paper, the entropyweight and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used in combination to reducethe impact of human factors on the weight. Chongqing region,“two passengers and adangerous” vehicle operational safety analysis, the results show that the method is easyto judge the results of scientific rationality, the accuracy of the model is verified.
③In the extraction commercial vehicle operating characteristics, theanalytical method on commercial vehicles over-speed law is proposed based DMtechnology.
Difficult to master effective for the current operators of vehicles speeding law, theproposed car GPS real-time monitoring of data analysis, data mining techniques appliedto operators of vehicles speeding law, given the data pre-processing method based onmap matching, with the space property to preprocess the data, and established afour-dimensional data warehouse model. On this basis, the FP-tree-based associationrule mining algorithms and trend analysis, a preliminary pattern mining.
④Aiming at such problems of commercial vehicle tailgating accidents, basedon the speed relation among vehicles, the mechanism of operating vehicle tailgatingaccidents is revealed in this paper. Meanwhile, the vehicle tailgating collisioncontrol method is proposed based on the information of multi preceding cars andthe information of preceding and following cars.
At present, however, there are some difficulties to solve the problems ofcommercial vehicle tailgating accidents: the technical means to prevent commercialvehicle tailgating accidents are rather rare, the research on tracing trail mechanism isstill not deep enough, and the study of the pre-warning system on capturing informationis rather lacking. Consequently, the tracing trail mechanism of commercial vehicle isrevealed from a new perspective based on the information of preceding and followingcars. The measures to avoid vehicle tailgating collision separately are proposed on thisbasis, which are using the information of multi preceding cars and the information ofpreceding and following cars. The effective measures are verified by numericalsimulation.
The works are as follows: based on the information of multi preceding cars, thestudy of car-dynamical model—MAVD model is proposed. The results show that thestability margin of the researched vehicle can be enlarged to avoid vehicle tailgatingcollision by making full use of the information of multi preceding cars. Meanwhile,based on the information of preceding and following cars, another car-dynamical model—BL&OVD model is proposed. The results show that the stable region of vehicle fleet,to a certain extent, it can be enlarged to avoid collision between preceding car andfollowing car by making full use of the information of preceding and following cars.
In conclusion， this paper adequately merges information technology andcommunication theory，and constructs a series of safety regulation system for operatingvehicles. Moreover, safe evaluation method based on entropy weight theory is studied,an analysis method based DM operations vehicles speeding law is proposed, and in theend, with a large range of information among vehicles, the mechanism analysis of commercial vehicle tailgating accidents and the suppression method of commercialvehicle tailgating accidents are explored. The effectiveness of this work is verified bytheoretical analysis and practical applications.
随着营运车辆急剧增长，现有人工监管方式缺乏对营运车辆安全规律的把握，已难以适应现代交通安全精细化管理的需要。由于交通安全监管系统本质是实时性高、协调性强的复杂系统，严重制约了对影响交通安全的关键因素（如超速、追尾等）的机理和规律的有效认知。目前，信息化与智能化已成为交通安全监管系统现代化的主要发展方向，通过提高营运车辆安全监管系统在感知、通信和控制之间的互联互通互操作能力，为认知交通安全监管的机理及规律提供了新的途径，同时，现代交通理论的发展也为上述问题的解决提供了新的契机。
因此，深入研究信息化条件下营运车辆安全监管的技术及其关键支撑理论，以科学的方法准确认知超速、追尾等交通安全现象，以先进的技术支撑营运车辆安全监管系统的发展，对于交通部门实施具有针对性的主动监管提供科学支持，具有重要的理论和实际意义。
本文主要围绕基于信息化条件下的营运车辆安全监管技术及其关键支撑理论展开研究。首先构建了信息化环境下的营运车辆安全监管体系，为营运车辆主动管控和参与者联动提供支撑。同时，重点围绕信息化环境下车辆运营安全体系评价技术、车辆超速规律和追尾机理方面亟待解决的关键问题，进行了深入系统的研究，以期从理论和工程应用两个角度突破，从而为科学评价、针对性地实施主动的营运车辆安全监管提供支撑手段和理论依据。
主要工作包括以下几个方面：
①在营运车辆安全监管体系方面，提出了一种具有信息反馈机制的安全监管体系框架，并在其指导下构建了基于GPS的“两客一危”监控系统。
针对交通管理部门、运输企业、司乘人员和应急救援部门在营运车辆监管中缺乏有效信息交互和协同联动机制的问题，首先，从数据驱动的角度出发，应用反馈控制思想，构建包含对象层、监管层、控制层和反馈层的道路交通安全监管体系框架。其次，以交通安全监管体系框架作为宏观指引，构建了一个典型的“两客一危”监控系统，并在重庆市典型高速公路进行部署应用，结果证明了其适用性，体现了该营运车辆安全监管体系具有重要工程应用价值。
②在营运车辆的安全评价方面，提出了一种基于熵权理论的运营车辆安全评价方法。
综合考虑了影响营运车辆的运营安全评价因素，基于熵的理论确定各因素的权值，然后运用模糊综合评判模型进行综合评价，得出其安全等级。通过把熵权法与模糊综合评价法结合，有效降低了人为因素对权重的影响。将该方法应用于重庆地区“两客一危”车辆运营安全分析，结果表明方法简单易行，评判结果具有科学性和合理性。
③在提取营运车辆运行特征方面，提出了一种基于DM技术的运营车辆超速规律分析方法。
针对目前难以有效掌握运营车辆超速行驶的规律，基于车载GPS实时监控数据，提出了将数据挖掘技术应用于运营车辆超速规律的分析方法，同时给出了一种基于地图匹配的数据预处理方法，对具有空间属性的数据进行预处理，并建立了四维数据仓库模型。在此基础上利用基于FP-树的关联规则挖掘算法及趋势分析方法，进行了初步的模式挖掘，得到了与决策有关的多种超速规律，为运管部门实施运营车辆的超速监管提供了有效支持和决策依据。
④针对营运车辆追尾问题，基于前后车作用关系，揭示了营运车辆追尾机理，并提出了基于多前车信息和基于前后车信息综合利用的车辆追尾抑制方法。
针对有效抑制和预防营运车辆追尾技术手段比较单一、车辆追尾机理成果还研究不够深入、以及预警系统采集信息种类、范围及依据的研究缺乏等问题，从前后车作用关系的全新角度，揭示了营运车辆追尾机理。在此基础上分别提出了利用多前车信息和前后车信息来抑制营运车辆追尾的措施，并采用数值仿真验证上述途径的有效性。
具体为：提出了基于多前车信息作用下的车辆运动模型-MAVD模型，其结果表明，通过充分利用多前车信息，可以扩大本车稳定裕量，从而抑制本车与前车追尾；提出了考虑前后车辆综合效应的车辆运行刻画建模——BL&OVD模型，研究结果表明通过前后车信息的综合与协同，能最大限度扩大车队稳定区域，从而抑制前后车追尾发生，且只需要采集前方两辆车的信息和后方一辆跟随车的信息就可以保持车辆运行在最佳状态，以保证追尾发生概率最低。
综上所述，本文充分融合信息技术和交通理论，构建了一套营运车辆安全监管体系，研究了基于熵权理论的运营车辆安全评价方法，提出了一种基于DM技术的运营车辆超速规律分析算法，探索了基于前后车大范围信息利用的营运车辆追尾机理分析和抑制方法，理论分析和实际应用验证了本文工作的有效性。
Road traffic accidents have become a threat to human public safety, and it iscaused by the widespread concern of the countries in the world. In the road trafficaccidents, due to commercial vehicle operating range is wide, running time is long, thegoods is numerous, passenger flow and through put are huge, commercial vehicle safetyaccounts for large portion of road traffic safety.
With the rapid growth in quantity of the commercial vehicles, it is difficult to meetthe demands of the modern traffic safety fine supervision demands for the existingartificial supervision way that is in lack of grasping of the commercial vehicle safetyrules. Due to the traffic safety supervision system is essentially of complex system withhigh real-time, strong coordination, these have seriously restricted the effectivecognition of the mechanism and regulation that influence traffic safety key factors (suchas overspeed, tailgating, etc.). Currently, informatization and intelligentization hasbecome the main development direction of modern traffic safety supervision system. Byimproving interconnection, interflow and interoperability of commercial vehicle safetysupervision system in perception, communication and control, which provides the newway to cognitive mechanism and law of the traffic safety supervision system.Meanwhile, the development of the modern traffic theory provides a new opportunity tosolve the above problem.
Therefore, we carry out a further study on the technology of commercial vehiclessafety supervision and its key supporting theories under information-based condition, sotraffic safety phenomenon (such as overspeed, tailgating) can be given an insight,accurately by scientific methods, the development of commercial vehicles safetysupervision system can be supported by advanced technology, scientific support foractive supervision implemention can be provided by traffic department, and these haveimportant theoretical and practical significance.
This paper chiefly focuses on the constructing of the commercial vehicles safetysupervision system and its key support theories under information-based condition.Firstly, constructing the commercial vehicle safety supervision system ininformation-based environment, and providing support for commercial vehicle activecontrol and participants’ link. Meanwhile, focusing on the key problem urgently besolved such as evaluation technology of commercial vehicle safety system, vehicle over-speed pattern and tailgating collision mechanism under information-basedenvironment, systematical research has been carried out so as to breakthrough fromtheory and engineering application, consequently, providing support means andtheoretical base for scientific evaluate, targeted implements of active commercialvehicle safety supervision.
The main work includes the following aspects:
①In commercial vehicle safe supervision system, the framework withinformation feedback mechanism of the safe supervision system is proposed, andbased on this, a "two passengers and a dangerous" vehicle real-time remotemonitoring system is constructed by GPS-based technology.
According to the traffic administrative department, transportation enterprises, thedrivers and conductors, emergency rescue departments in commercial vehiclesupervision lack effective information interaction and collaborative linkage mechanism,first of all, from the point of view of data driven, the road traffic safety managementsystem framework (includes object layer, supervision layer, control layer and feedbacklayer) is constructed based on feedback control idea. Secondly, and a typical "twopassengers and a dangerous" supervision system is constructed under the macroguidance of the traffic safety supervision system framework. The constructedcommercial vehicle safe supervision system has been applied to typical highway inChongqing region, and the results prove its applicability, and show the commercialvehicle safety supervision system has important engineering application value.
②In the safety evaluation of commercial vehicles, one vehicle safetyevaluation method is proposed based on entropy weight theory.
Considering the impact of "two passengers and a dangerous "vehicle operatingsafety assessment factors, based on the entropy theory to determine the weights ofvarious factors, then the use of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model forcomprehensive evaluation, the obtained level of security. In this paper, the entropyweight and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used in combination to reducethe impact of human factors on the weight. Chongqing region,“two passengers and adangerous” vehicle operational safety analysis, the results show that the method is easyto judge the results of scientific rationality, the accuracy of the model is verified.
③In the extraction commercial vehicle operating characteristics, theanalytical method on commercial vehicles over-speed law is proposed based DMtechnology.
Difficult to master effective for the current operators of vehicles speeding law, theproposed car GPS real-time monitoring of data analysis, data mining techniques appliedto operators of vehicles speeding law, given the data pre-processing method based onmap matching, with the space property to preprocess the data, and established afour-dimensional data warehouse model. On this basis, the FP-tree-based associationrule mining algorithms and trend analysis, a preliminary pattern mining.
④Aiming at such problems of commercial vehicle tailgating accidents, basedon the speed relation among vehicles, the mechanism of operating vehicle tailgatingaccidents is revealed in this paper. Meanwhile, the vehicle tailgating collisioncontrol method is proposed based on the information of multi preceding cars andthe information of preceding and following cars.
At present, however, there are some difficulties to solve the problems ofcommercial vehicle tailgating accidents: the technical means to prevent commercialvehicle tailgating accidents are rather rare, the research on tracing trail mechanism isstill not deep enough, and the study of the pre-warning system on capturing informationis rather lacking. Consequently, the tracing trail mechanism of commercial vehicle isrevealed from a new perspective based on the information of preceding and followingcars. The measures to avoid vehicle tailgating collision separately are proposed on thisbasis, which are using the information of multi preceding cars and the information ofpreceding and following cars. The effective measures are verified by numericalsimulation.
The works are as follows: based on the information of multi preceding cars, thestudy of car-dynamical model—MAVD model is proposed. The results show that thestability margin of the researched vehicle can be enlarged to avoid vehicle tailgatingcollision by making full use of the information of multi preceding cars. Meanwhile,based on the information of preceding and following cars, another car-dynamical model—BL&OVD model is proposed. The results show that the stable region of vehicle fleet,to a certain extent, it can be enlarged to avoid collision between preceding car andfollowing car by making full use of the information of preceding and following cars.
In conclusion， this paper adequately merges information technology andcommunication theory，and constructs a series of safety regulation system for operatingvehicles. Moreover, safe evaluation method based on entropy weight theory is studied,an analysis method based DM operations vehicles speeding law is proposed, and in theend, with a large range of information among vehicles, the mechanism analysis of commercial vehicle tailgating accidents and the suppression method of commercialvehicle tailgating accidents are explored. The effectiveness of this work is verified bytheoretical analysis and practical applications.
引文
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