中国重点型灌区节水配套改造发展战略研究
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摘要
我国是农业大国，灌区作为主要粮食生产基地，其发展水平非常重要。特别是重点中型灌区，数量大，分布广，在地区农业经济发展中占有重要地位。我国大多数灌区建设较早，存在建设标准低、工程年久失修、灌溉效率低下等问题，根据灌区存在问题，以节水为中心的灌区节水配套改造非常必要。重点中型灌区节水改造迫切水平评价及改造重点分析是灌区改造任务顺利实施、投资回效最优的前提。
重点中型灌区节水配套改造迫切水平评价包括评价体系与评价方法两大部分，涉及水利工程、管理工程、系统工程、数学方法等内容。综合考虑影响灌区的各类因素，引入了可变模糊集理论，包括模拟、评价和决策等系统理论、模型和方法，本文建立了节水配套改造迫切评价指标体系。基于该理论，结合系统工程，对重点中型灌区节水配套改造中迫切性评价及模式问题进行了研究，主要内容和成果如下：
一、在我国农业用水情况分析、国内外灌区节水配套改造成果和相关理论方法基础上，根据我国重点中型灌区总体数量及分布状况和以往我国关于灌区节水配套改造任务及完成状况，分析并提炼了目前我国重点中型灌区存在的突出问题。考虑全国范围内重点中型灌区问题的突出特点及地域性差别，将重点中型灌区划分为5个分区，总结了各分区重点中型灌区的水土资源特点，以及当前工程和管理方面的突出问题和亟待解决的目标。
二、针对重点中型灌区存在的问题，总结出重点中型灌区节水配套改造迫切水平评价影响指标，采用调查问卷、专家论证对指标进行筛选，建立了重点中型灌区节水配套改造迫切水平评价体系。评价体系为两层结构，一级指标考虑水资源开发利用、工程、效益、管理、生态5大子系统，二级指标共25个，并给出25个指标性质、计算方法，计算模型及量化方式，并根据分区特点制定了节水配套改造的迫切水平等级标准及阈值，为评价工作奠定基础。
三、针对评价体系中某些指标难以确定的问题，如灌溉水利用系数的获取难度较大，本文调查搜集了灌区灌溉水利用系数各类影响因素，采用模糊优选神经网络模型对15组典型灌区调查数据进行了训练和模拟，神经网络训练的隐节点数取2~7个，训练和模拟结果精确度均良好，当隐节点数取3时，模型训练和模拟的精确度最高，可为重点中型灌区的评价工作提供依据。
四、引入了可变模糊集理论和二元对比法，构建了基于可变模糊集理论的重点中型灌区节水配套改造迫切性评价数学模型，并以长江中下游的全民水库灌区为实例展现了计算过程。本文对5个分区分别选择典型灌区进行评价，判断典型灌区的节水配套改造迫切水平，并通过评价指标分析，分析典型灌区当前存在的问题，以及节水配套改造任务的重点和目标，为各分区重点中型灌区评价工作的顺利开展提供实例。
五、确立节水配套改造原则及主要策略，结合全国重点中型灌区的地域特征，存在问题、改造目标，将灌区节水配套改造技术分解归纳为工程、水资源优化配置、种植结构调整、用水管理技术等4个方面，从解决关键问题的核心技术、与之对应的配套技术两个角度，将实用可行、群众易于接受的技术提炼形成了8种节水配套改造模式，并对政策及管理等保障措施给出了建议。
最后对本项工作做出总结和对重点中型灌区的进一步节水配套改造工作进行了展望。
China is a large agricultural country, as the major grain production base, irrigationdistricts development is very important; especially key medium-sized irrigationdistricts have been playing an important role in regional agricultural economydevelopment because of its large quantity and widespread. Most of the irrigationdistricts were built in1970s, lots of problems are emerging such as low criteria, projectaging and disrepair, low water utilization efficiency, and so on. Those results showthat continuous auxiliary projects construction and water saving reformation isnecessary in key medium irrigation. Further, assessment on demand urgency torehabilitation and water saving reformation of key medium-sized irrigation districtsis an important basis for water saving reconstruction and resources optimization.
Assessment on demand urgency of rehabilitation and water saving reformation of keymedium-sized irrigation districts includes two parts: assessment index and assessmentmethod, which is involving water conservancy engineering, systems engineering andmathematic methods. Considered various influence factors and the variable fuzzy setstheory was introduced, which includes non-linear simulation, half-constructionassessment, multi-objects decision making, assessment on urgency demand rehabilitationand water saving reformation was built in this paper. The main research contents andachievements are as follows:
(1) Based on analysis of agricultural water use and achievements of continuousauxiliary projects construction and water saving reformation, the main problems issummarized according to key medium-sized irrigation districts distribution in china.Considered sub-area differences, all key medium-sized irrigation districts are dividedinto5partitions. Further more, water and soil resources characteristic and the mainproblems in current projects and management are distinguished and summarized in eachsub-area.
(2) Different sub-area has different problems and reformation importance. Throughquestionnaire, expert judgment, influence factors analysis about continuous auxiliaryprojects construction and water saving reformation,25indixes are selected to establishthe assessment system. The assessment system is a two-layer structure, which consistsof5subsystems: water resources development and utilization, project, management,economic benefits and ecology. And then, indices definition, calculation formula,quantitative criteria and assessment model are all presented. Furthermore, each sub-area’s assessment standard, threshold value and entervals were given in the paper.
(3) Several indexes of assessment index system are difficult to define in practice,for example, irrigation water efficiency. Based on15group investigation data from keymedium-sized irrigation districts, the fuzzy optimization neural network model wasapplied to train and simulate the water efficiency of irrigation. Here, number of hiddennodes of neural network structure is trained from2to7. And when number of hidden layernodes is3, the training precision is highest. The simulation results could provide abasis for the assessment of key medium-sized irrigation district.
(4) The variable fuzzy sets theory and binary comparison method were introduced,and assessment mathematic model on demand urgency of rehabilitation and water savingreformation was built based on variable fuzzy sets theory. Especially, QUANMIN irrigationdistrict was assessment in detail in The Yangtze River Plain and Hills area as an example.Five key medium-sized irrigation districts are selected to assessment according to5sub-areas. The assessment results determined demand urgency of rehabilitation and watersaving reformation of every sub-area. Moreover, problems and missions were indicatedin5key medium-sized irrigation districts through index analysis, which could provideexamples for the further evaluation work.
(5) The principles and strategies of rehabilitation and water saving reformationwere established. Consided5sub-areas regional feather, existing problem, andrehabilitation objective, the technology on rehabilitation and water saving reformationwere summarized into4categories: project, water resources optimal allocation, farmingpattern adjustment and water management. From the point of the core technology and thecorresponding supporting technology to those key problems,8patterns of rehabilitationand water saving reformation were extracted and summarized from practical, useful andacceptable technologies, Moreover, relevant policy and management was suggested.
Finally, a summary is given and some problems to be further research are discussed.
重点中型灌区节水配套改造迫切水平评价包括评价体系与评价方法两大部分，涉及水利工程、管理工程、系统工程、数学方法等内容。综合考虑影响灌区的各类因素，引入了可变模糊集理论，包括模拟、评价和决策等系统理论、模型和方法，本文建立了节水配套改造迫切评价指标体系。基于该理论，结合系统工程，对重点中型灌区节水配套改造中迫切性评价及模式问题进行了研究，主要内容和成果如下：
一、在我国农业用水情况分析、国内外灌区节水配套改造成果和相关理论方法基础上，根据我国重点中型灌区总体数量及分布状况和以往我国关于灌区节水配套改造任务及完成状况，分析并提炼了目前我国重点中型灌区存在的突出问题。考虑全国范围内重点中型灌区问题的突出特点及地域性差别，将重点中型灌区划分为5个分区，总结了各分区重点中型灌区的水土资源特点，以及当前工程和管理方面的突出问题和亟待解决的目标。
二、针对重点中型灌区存在的问题，总结出重点中型灌区节水配套改造迫切水平评价影响指标，采用调查问卷、专家论证对指标进行筛选，建立了重点中型灌区节水配套改造迫切水平评价体系。评价体系为两层结构，一级指标考虑水资源开发利用、工程、效益、管理、生态5大子系统，二级指标共25个，并给出25个指标性质、计算方法，计算模型及量化方式，并根据分区特点制定了节水配套改造的迫切水平等级标准及阈值，为评价工作奠定基础。
三、针对评价体系中某些指标难以确定的问题，如灌溉水利用系数的获取难度较大，本文调查搜集了灌区灌溉水利用系数各类影响因素，采用模糊优选神经网络模型对15组典型灌区调查数据进行了训练和模拟，神经网络训练的隐节点数取2~7个，训练和模拟结果精确度均良好，当隐节点数取3时，模型训练和模拟的精确度最高，可为重点中型灌区的评价工作提供依据。
四、引入了可变模糊集理论和二元对比法，构建了基于可变模糊集理论的重点中型灌区节水配套改造迫切性评价数学模型，并以长江中下游的全民水库灌区为实例展现了计算过程。本文对5个分区分别选择典型灌区进行评价，判断典型灌区的节水配套改造迫切水平，并通过评价指标分析，分析典型灌区当前存在的问题，以及节水配套改造任务的重点和目标，为各分区重点中型灌区评价工作的顺利开展提供实例。
五、确立节水配套改造原则及主要策略，结合全国重点中型灌区的地域特征，存在问题、改造目标，将灌区节水配套改造技术分解归纳为工程、水资源优化配置、种植结构调整、用水管理技术等4个方面，从解决关键问题的核心技术、与之对应的配套技术两个角度，将实用可行、群众易于接受的技术提炼形成了8种节水配套改造模式，并对政策及管理等保障措施给出了建议。
最后对本项工作做出总结和对重点中型灌区的进一步节水配套改造工作进行了展望。
China is a large agricultural country, as the major grain production base, irrigationdistricts development is very important; especially key medium-sized irrigationdistricts have been playing an important role in regional agricultural economydevelopment because of its large quantity and widespread. Most of the irrigationdistricts were built in1970s, lots of problems are emerging such as low criteria, projectaging and disrepair, low water utilization efficiency, and so on. Those results showthat continuous auxiliary projects construction and water saving reformation isnecessary in key medium irrigation. Further, assessment on demand urgency torehabilitation and water saving reformation of key medium-sized irrigation districtsis an important basis for water saving reconstruction and resources optimization.
Assessment on demand urgency of rehabilitation and water saving reformation of keymedium-sized irrigation districts includes two parts: assessment index and assessmentmethod, which is involving water conservancy engineering, systems engineering andmathematic methods. Considered various influence factors and the variable fuzzy setstheory was introduced, which includes non-linear simulation, half-constructionassessment, multi-objects decision making, assessment on urgency demand rehabilitationand water saving reformation was built in this paper. The main research contents andachievements are as follows:
(1) Based on analysis of agricultural water use and achievements of continuousauxiliary projects construction and water saving reformation, the main problems issummarized according to key medium-sized irrigation districts distribution in china.Considered sub-area differences, all key medium-sized irrigation districts are dividedinto5partitions. Further more, water and soil resources characteristic and the mainproblems in current projects and management are distinguished and summarized in eachsub-area.
(2) Different sub-area has different problems and reformation importance. Throughquestionnaire, expert judgment, influence factors analysis about continuous auxiliaryprojects construction and water saving reformation,25indixes are selected to establishthe assessment system. The assessment system is a two-layer structure, which consistsof5subsystems: water resources development and utilization, project, management,economic benefits and ecology. And then, indices definition, calculation formula,quantitative criteria and assessment model are all presented. Furthermore, each sub-area’s assessment standard, threshold value and entervals were given in the paper.
(3) Several indexes of assessment index system are difficult to define in practice,for example, irrigation water efficiency. Based on15group investigation data from keymedium-sized irrigation districts, the fuzzy optimization neural network model wasapplied to train and simulate the water efficiency of irrigation. Here, number of hiddennodes of neural network structure is trained from2to7. And when number of hidden layernodes is3, the training precision is highest. The simulation results could provide abasis for the assessment of key medium-sized irrigation district.
(4) The variable fuzzy sets theory and binary comparison method were introduced,and assessment mathematic model on demand urgency of rehabilitation and water savingreformation was built based on variable fuzzy sets theory. Especially, QUANMIN irrigationdistrict was assessment in detail in The Yangtze River Plain and Hills area as an example.Five key medium-sized irrigation districts are selected to assessment according to5sub-areas. The assessment results determined demand urgency of rehabilitation and watersaving reformation of every sub-area. Moreover, problems and missions were indicatedin5key medium-sized irrigation districts through index analysis, which could provideexamples for the further evaluation work.
(5) The principles and strategies of rehabilitation and water saving reformationwere established. Consided5sub-areas regional feather, existing problem, andrehabilitation objective, the technology on rehabilitation and water saving reformationwere summarized into4categories: project, water resources optimal allocation, farmingpattern adjustment and water management. From the point of the core technology and thecorresponding supporting technology to those key problems,8patterns of rehabilitationand water saving reformation were extracted and summarized from practical, useful andacceptable technologies, Moreover, relevant policy and management was suggested.
Finally, a summary is given and some problems to be further research are discussed.
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