贸易自由化与行业生产率：企业异质性视野的机理分析与实证研究
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摘要
贸易自由化与生产率增长之间的关系,是经济学研究的重要论题之一。迄今围绕这个论题的研究大多有个暗含的假定,这便是企业的同质性,即假定一个行业内的所有企业是无差异的,贸易自由化条件下出口部门的所有企业均进行出口。然而现实世界并非如此,国际贸易中的企业异质性是个普遍现象。众多特性差异中,生产率差异最为重要。大量研究揭示,出口企业的生产率比之非出口企业更高,而同行业中存在出口企业与非出口企业之分,原因在于,面临出口进入的沉没成本时,异质性企业的行为选择存在差异,高生产率的企业更倾向于进入出口市场。由此,国际贸易研究的最新进展突破了代表性企业的分析框架,转而在企业异质性视野下研究贸易自由化的生产率增长效应,提出了贸易自由化促进行业生产率增长的资源重置效应。值得注意的是,从企业异质性视野切入,分析贸易自由化的资源重置效应的现有研究,大多假定企业生产技术不变。然而,从动态的角度看,行业生产率增长不仅来源于行业内资源重置效应,还来源于企业自身的技术进步效应,且长期经济增长最终依赖于企业自身的技术进步。本文研究的目的在于,结合国际贸易中企业层面的事实,综合分析企业异质性视野下,贸易自由化促进行业生产率增长的微观机理,并利用中国制造业企业层面的数据对这一机理进行实证检验。
在理论上,本文从异质性企业在贸易自由化背景下的动态行为角度,分析贸易自由化促进行业生产率增长的微观机理。首先,在企业生产技术不变的条件下,演示异质性企业在贸易自由化背景下的生产以及出口决策通过行业内资源重置效应影响行业生产率的微观机理。行业内资源重置机理可概括如下:贸易自由化→行业出口扩张和进口渗透→低效率企业退出(市场选择效应)和生产资源向高效率企业转移(份额转移效应)→行业生产率增长。接着,引入企业内生技术选择,在企业生产技术变化的条件下,演示异质性企业在贸易自由化背景下的生产、出口以及技术选择决策通过企业技术进步效应影响行业生产率的微观机理。企业技术进步机理可概括如下:贸易自由化→行业出口扩张和进口渗透→高端技术引入成本下将→更多企业选择高端技术→企业技术进步→行业生产率增长。在模型分析的基础上,本文提出了四个待检验的理论假说,第一,贸易自由化促进行业生产率增长;第二,从动态的角度看,行业内资源重置效应和企业技术进步效应都可以促进行业生产率增长;第三,贸易自由化通过导致低效率企业退出和存活企业间市场份额转移促成行业内资源重置;第四,贸易自由化促进企业技术进步。
在实证上,本文利用2001-2006年中国制造业企业层面数据,对机理分析部分所提出的四个理论假说进行实证检验。首先,对贸易自由化与制造业生产率增长进行回归分析,从总体上检验贸易自由化对行业生产率增长的影响;其次,基于行业生产率增长的分解框架,考察行业内资源重置、企业技术进步对行业生产率增长的贡献,以揭示行业生产率增长的源泉;最后,分别检验贸易自由化对行业内资源重置以及贸易自由化对企业技术进步的影响,以检验企业异质性视野下贸易自由化促进行业生产率增长的微观机理。
实证分析所得出的主要结论是:中国的贸易自由化显著促进了制造业生产率的增长,其中出口扩张对制造业生产率的影响较大;2001-2006年中国制造业各行业的生产率均经历了一定程度的增长,各行业总生产率的增长是由第一种资源重置效应(低生产率企业退出)、第二种资源重置效应(市场份额从低生产率企业向高生产率企业转移)以及企业技术进步效应所共同驱动的,且企业技术进步是行业总生产率增长的主要源泉;贸易自由化的第一种资源重置效应是显著的,且主要是由进口竞争所驱动的,因为行业层面的进口渗透显著提高了行业内低效率企业退出的概率,而行业层面的出口扩张对行业内低效率企业退出的概率并没有显著影响;贸易自由化的第二种资源重置效应具有不确定性,贸易自由化显著提高了非出口企业进入出口的可能性,但是贸易自由化对出口企业的出口量扩张影响有限,且行业层面的进口渗透对行业内存活企业的国内市场份额并没有造成显著影响;贸易自由化对企业技术进步具有显著影响,且行业层面的出口扩张对出口企业生产率的促进作用大于非出口企业,这与中国制造业内存在出口学习效应的现实考察结论相一致。
基于上述分析,本文最后提出了相应的政策建议,以期能够推动贸易自由化促进行业生产率增长的微观机制的充分发挥,从而促进中国工业生产率的增长。
The relationship between trade liberalization and productivity growth has been one of the important topics in economic research. So far, most of the literatures on this topic have made an implicit assumption, that is, all firms in an industry are homogeneous, so that all firms in export sector export when trade liberalized. However, that is not the case. In reality, firm heterogeneity in international trade is a common phenomenon. Some of the studies have showed that exporters usually have superior performances than non-exporters, the co-existence of the exporters and non-exporters among the same narrowly defined industries, is due to the different behaviors among heterogeneous firms when facing export entry sunk costs, and the more productive firms are more likely to enter the export market. Therefore, the recent development of the research in international trade breaking the framework of representative firm, analyzes the impact of trade liberalization on productivity growth with the view of firm heterogeneity, and proposes that trade liberalization can contribute to an aggregate productivity gain through the intra-industrial reallocation. Most of the current literatures showing the impact of trade liberalization on intra-industrial reallocations, however, are based on the assumption of fixed technology in firms. Dynamically, aggregate productivity growth in an industry is not only rooted in the effect of intra-industrial reallocation, but also in the effect of technical progress of firms, and the latter is the most important origin of the long term economic growth. This paper attempts to introduce the fact of firm heterogeneity in international trade, demonstrates the micro-mechanisms of the impact of trade liberalization on industrial productivity in an integrated framework with the view of firm heterogeneity, and provides empirical evidence from Chinese manufacturing using firm-level data.
Theoretically, this paper starts with the dynamic behavior of heterogeneous firms in the context of trade liberalization, and shows the micro-mechanisms of the impact of trade liberalization on industrial productivity. Firstly, under the assumption of fixed technology in firms, this paper demonstrates the impact of trade liberalization on industrial productivity through intra-industrial reallocation effect, which is induced by the production and export decision of heterogeneous firms in the context of trade liberalization. The mechanism of intra-industrial reallocation can be summarized as: trade liberalization→industrial export expansion and import penetration→the exit of low-productive firms (market selection effect) and the resource reallocation toward higher-productive firms (market share effect)→the growth of industrial productivity. Secondly, introducing an endogenous technology choice of firms to make an assumption of changeable technology in firms, this paper demonstrates the impact of trade liberalization on industrial productivity through technical progress effect in firms, which is induced by the production, export and technology decision of heterogeneous firms in the context of trade liberalization. The mechanism of technical progress in firms can be summarized as: trade liberalization→industrial export expansion and import penetration→the decline of the introduction costs of the High-Tec technology→more firms choose the High-Tec technology→technical progress in firms→the growth of industrial productivity. Based on the model, this paper puts forward the following testable hypotheses: First, trade liberalization leads to an aggregate industry productivity gain. Second, intra-industrial reallocation and firm-level technical progress lead to an aggregate industry productivity gain with the view of dynamics. Third, trade liberalization leads to the intra-industrial reallocation through raising the probability of firm exit and shifting the market share among surviving firms. Four, trade liberalization increases firm-level productivity.
Empirically, this paper uses 2001-2006 Chinese manufacturing firm-level data, tests the four hypotheses proposed in the theoretical section. Firstly, to examine the relationship between trade liberalization and industrial productivity growth as a whole, this paper starts by estimating the impact of industry-level trade liberalization on industrial productivity via a panel data fixed effect OLS regression. Secondly, to show the sources of industrial productivity growth, this paper examines the contributions of intra-industrial reallocation and firm-level technical progress to industrial productivity growth, based on the decomposition of the industrial productivity growth. Thirdly, to examine the micro-mechanisms of the impact of trade liberalization on industrial productivity, this paper estimating the impacts of trade liberalization on intra-industrial reallocation and firm-level technical progress via panel data fixed effect logistic and OLS regression.
The main empirical results are following. First, trade liberalization significantly promotes Chinese manufacturing's productivity growth, and export expansion has been the main influencing factor for the growth. Second, during 2001-2006, Chinese manufacturing industries have experienced considerable productivity growth, which are driven by the first reallocation effect (the exit of low-productive firms), the second reallocation effect (the resource reallocation toward higher-productive firms), and the technical progress effect in firms. Among all these driving forces, the technical progress effect is the primary one. Third, the impact of trade liberalization on the first reallocation in significant, which is primarily driven by import competition, because increasing industry-level import penetration significantly increase the probability that low-productive firms exit, but the industry-level export expansion has no significant impact on the probability of exit. However, the impact of trade liberalization on the second reallocation is uncertain, because trade liberalization raises the probability of higher-productivity expand by entering export market, but the impact of trade liberalization on exporters' foreign sales and the domestic market share of surviving firms are not significant. Finally, trade liberalization has played a significant role in firms' technical progress, and the impact of industry-level export expansion on the productivity growth of exporters is bigger than non-exporters, which is in accordance with the conclusion of the reality examination that learning-effect of export is significant in Chinese manufacturing.
Based on the above analysis, this paper provides the corresponding policy implications and suggestions, and expects the fully function of the micro-mechanisms of the impact of trade liberalization on industrial productivity, so as to promote the productivity growth of Chinese industry.
在理论上,本文从异质性企业在贸易自由化背景下的动态行为角度,分析贸易自由化促进行业生产率增长的微观机理。首先,在企业生产技术不变的条件下,演示异质性企业在贸易自由化背景下的生产以及出口决策通过行业内资源重置效应影响行业生产率的微观机理。行业内资源重置机理可概括如下:贸易自由化→行业出口扩张和进口渗透→低效率企业退出(市场选择效应)和生产资源向高效率企业转移(份额转移效应)→行业生产率增长。接着,引入企业内生技术选择,在企业生产技术变化的条件下,演示异质性企业在贸易自由化背景下的生产、出口以及技术选择决策通过企业技术进步效应影响行业生产率的微观机理。企业技术进步机理可概括如下:贸易自由化→行业出口扩张和进口渗透→高端技术引入成本下将→更多企业选择高端技术→企业技术进步→行业生产率增长。在模型分析的基础上,本文提出了四个待检验的理论假说,第一,贸易自由化促进行业生产率增长;第二,从动态的角度看,行业内资源重置效应和企业技术进步效应都可以促进行业生产率增长;第三,贸易自由化通过导致低效率企业退出和存活企业间市场份额转移促成行业内资源重置;第四,贸易自由化促进企业技术进步。
在实证上,本文利用2001-2006年中国制造业企业层面数据,对机理分析部分所提出的四个理论假说进行实证检验。首先,对贸易自由化与制造业生产率增长进行回归分析,从总体上检验贸易自由化对行业生产率增长的影响;其次,基于行业生产率增长的分解框架,考察行业内资源重置、企业技术进步对行业生产率增长的贡献,以揭示行业生产率增长的源泉;最后,分别检验贸易自由化对行业内资源重置以及贸易自由化对企业技术进步的影响,以检验企业异质性视野下贸易自由化促进行业生产率增长的微观机理。
实证分析所得出的主要结论是:中国的贸易自由化显著促进了制造业生产率的增长,其中出口扩张对制造业生产率的影响较大;2001-2006年中国制造业各行业的生产率均经历了一定程度的增长,各行业总生产率的增长是由第一种资源重置效应(低生产率企业退出)、第二种资源重置效应(市场份额从低生产率企业向高生产率企业转移)以及企业技术进步效应所共同驱动的,且企业技术进步是行业总生产率增长的主要源泉;贸易自由化的第一种资源重置效应是显著的,且主要是由进口竞争所驱动的,因为行业层面的进口渗透显著提高了行业内低效率企业退出的概率,而行业层面的出口扩张对行业内低效率企业退出的概率并没有显著影响;贸易自由化的第二种资源重置效应具有不确定性,贸易自由化显著提高了非出口企业进入出口的可能性,但是贸易自由化对出口企业的出口量扩张影响有限,且行业层面的进口渗透对行业内存活企业的国内市场份额并没有造成显著影响;贸易自由化对企业技术进步具有显著影响,且行业层面的出口扩张对出口企业生产率的促进作用大于非出口企业,这与中国制造业内存在出口学习效应的现实考察结论相一致。
基于上述分析,本文最后提出了相应的政策建议,以期能够推动贸易自由化促进行业生产率增长的微观机制的充分发挥,从而促进中国工业生产率的增长。
The relationship between trade liberalization and productivity growth has been one of the important topics in economic research. So far, most of the literatures on this topic have made an implicit assumption, that is, all firms in an industry are homogeneous, so that all firms in export sector export when trade liberalized. However, that is not the case. In reality, firm heterogeneity in international trade is a common phenomenon. Some of the studies have showed that exporters usually have superior performances than non-exporters, the co-existence of the exporters and non-exporters among the same narrowly defined industries, is due to the different behaviors among heterogeneous firms when facing export entry sunk costs, and the more productive firms are more likely to enter the export market. Therefore, the recent development of the research in international trade breaking the framework of representative firm, analyzes the impact of trade liberalization on productivity growth with the view of firm heterogeneity, and proposes that trade liberalization can contribute to an aggregate productivity gain through the intra-industrial reallocation. Most of the current literatures showing the impact of trade liberalization on intra-industrial reallocations, however, are based on the assumption of fixed technology in firms. Dynamically, aggregate productivity growth in an industry is not only rooted in the effect of intra-industrial reallocation, but also in the effect of technical progress of firms, and the latter is the most important origin of the long term economic growth. This paper attempts to introduce the fact of firm heterogeneity in international trade, demonstrates the micro-mechanisms of the impact of trade liberalization on industrial productivity in an integrated framework with the view of firm heterogeneity, and provides empirical evidence from Chinese manufacturing using firm-level data.
Theoretically, this paper starts with the dynamic behavior of heterogeneous firms in the context of trade liberalization, and shows the micro-mechanisms of the impact of trade liberalization on industrial productivity. Firstly, under the assumption of fixed technology in firms, this paper demonstrates the impact of trade liberalization on industrial productivity through intra-industrial reallocation effect, which is induced by the production and export decision of heterogeneous firms in the context of trade liberalization. The mechanism of intra-industrial reallocation can be summarized as: trade liberalization→industrial export expansion and import penetration→the exit of low-productive firms (market selection effect) and the resource reallocation toward higher-productive firms (market share effect)→the growth of industrial productivity. Secondly, introducing an endogenous technology choice of firms to make an assumption of changeable technology in firms, this paper demonstrates the impact of trade liberalization on industrial productivity through technical progress effect in firms, which is induced by the production, export and technology decision of heterogeneous firms in the context of trade liberalization. The mechanism of technical progress in firms can be summarized as: trade liberalization→industrial export expansion and import penetration→the decline of the introduction costs of the High-Tec technology→more firms choose the High-Tec technology→technical progress in firms→the growth of industrial productivity. Based on the model, this paper puts forward the following testable hypotheses: First, trade liberalization leads to an aggregate industry productivity gain. Second, intra-industrial reallocation and firm-level technical progress lead to an aggregate industry productivity gain with the view of dynamics. Third, trade liberalization leads to the intra-industrial reallocation through raising the probability of firm exit and shifting the market share among surviving firms. Four, trade liberalization increases firm-level productivity.
Empirically, this paper uses 2001-2006 Chinese manufacturing firm-level data, tests the four hypotheses proposed in the theoretical section. Firstly, to examine the relationship between trade liberalization and industrial productivity growth as a whole, this paper starts by estimating the impact of industry-level trade liberalization on industrial productivity via a panel data fixed effect OLS regression. Secondly, to show the sources of industrial productivity growth, this paper examines the contributions of intra-industrial reallocation and firm-level technical progress to industrial productivity growth, based on the decomposition of the industrial productivity growth. Thirdly, to examine the micro-mechanisms of the impact of trade liberalization on industrial productivity, this paper estimating the impacts of trade liberalization on intra-industrial reallocation and firm-level technical progress via panel data fixed effect logistic and OLS regression.
The main empirical results are following. First, trade liberalization significantly promotes Chinese manufacturing's productivity growth, and export expansion has been the main influencing factor for the growth. Second, during 2001-2006, Chinese manufacturing industries have experienced considerable productivity growth, which are driven by the first reallocation effect (the exit of low-productive firms), the second reallocation effect (the resource reallocation toward higher-productive firms), and the technical progress effect in firms. Among all these driving forces, the technical progress effect is the primary one. Third, the impact of trade liberalization on the first reallocation in significant, which is primarily driven by import competition, because increasing industry-level import penetration significantly increase the probability that low-productive firms exit, but the industry-level export expansion has no significant impact on the probability of exit. However, the impact of trade liberalization on the second reallocation is uncertain, because trade liberalization raises the probability of higher-productivity expand by entering export market, but the impact of trade liberalization on exporters' foreign sales and the domestic market share of surviving firms are not significant. Finally, trade liberalization has played a significant role in firms' technical progress, and the impact of industry-level export expansion on the productivity growth of exporters is bigger than non-exporters, which is in accordance with the conclusion of the reality examination that learning-effect of export is significant in Chinese manufacturing.
Based on the above analysis, this paper provides the corresponding policy implications and suggestions, and expects the fully function of the micro-mechanisms of the impact of trade liberalization on industrial productivity, so as to promote the productivity growth of Chinese industry.
引文
1 尽管“贸易自由化”(Trade Liberalization)一词频频出现于国内外的经济学研究文献,但是迄今为止,关于贸易自由化尚未有权威的界定,学者们对贸易自由化的理解存在较大差异,对此的概念阐述也不尽相同。Winters(2004)指出,区分贸易开放(openness to trade)和贸易自由化是非常重要的,前者是指一种贸易开放的水平或状态,而后者则是指贸易开放度的变化,两者都需要从贸易政策的角度进行测度,但由于这种测度的复杂性,实证研究中大多从结果层面(即贸易依存度)进行测度。本文认为,贸易自由化是各国逐步降低关税和非关税壁垒的过程,由此产生的结果便是进出口贸易规模以及对外贸易依存度的逐渐提高。关税和非关税壁垒的降低意味着贸易成本的下降,本文在第四章的机理分析中,用贸易成本(包括可变贸易成本和固定贸易成本)的下降来刻画贸易自由化。但是,由于贸易成本的测度是一个未决之难题,本文在第五章的实证研究中,采用贸易依存度指标(包括出口依存度和进口渗透率)从结果上测度贸易自由化。
2 Bernard et al.(1995);Bernard & Jensen(1999,2004a,b);Clerides et Al(1998);Aw et.al(2000,2001)等.
3 本文将英文文献中的“Industry”解释为“行业”,是指生产差异化产品、相互竞争的企业所组成的整体,也有国内文献将其解释为“产业”,若没有特殊说明,本文中所提到的“行业”与“产业”具有相同的含义。
4 事实上,出口进入成本包含了出口进入沉没成本和固定出口成本,而在考虑企业一期出口决策的模型中,并不进行详细区分(Falvey el al.(2004))。
5 赵伟、李淑贞(2007);樊瑛(2008)等。
6 从2000-2005年,中国制造业产出占GDP的比重达32%,且制造业产出的89%用于出口,(Hanson &Robertson,2008)
49 赵伟等(2005),许和连、元朋(2008)等已经就20世纪90年代以来贸易开放度的度量指标以及度量方法进行了较为全面的综述。
50 与第三章的分类一致,分为轻工业、化工业、材料工业、机械设备制造业
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2 Bernard et al.(1995);Bernard & Jensen(1999,2004a,b);Clerides et Al(1998);Aw et.al(2000,2001)等.
3 本文将英文文献中的“Industry”解释为“行业”,是指生产差异化产品、相互竞争的企业所组成的整体,也有国内文献将其解释为“产业”,若没有特殊说明,本文中所提到的“行业”与“产业”具有相同的含义。
4 事实上,出口进入成本包含了出口进入沉没成本和固定出口成本,而在考虑企业一期出口决策的模型中,并不进行详细区分(Falvey el al.(2004))。
5 赵伟、李淑贞(2007);樊瑛(2008)等。
6 从2000-2005年,中国制造业产出占GDP的比重达32%,且制造业产出的89%用于出口,(Hanson &Robertson,2008)
49 赵伟等(2005),许和连、元朋(2008)等已经就20世纪90年代以来贸易开放度的度量指标以及度量方法进行了较为全面的综述。
50 与第三章的分类一致,分为轻工业、化工业、材料工业、机械设备制造业
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