中国自然失业率的特殊性及实证研究
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摘要
本文重点研究了中国自然失业率的特殊性并建立了中国自然失业率的测量模型,将理论与实证相结合深入分析了影响我国自然失业率变动的因素,并提出了相应的合理化政策建议。本文的主要内容包括:(1)回顾了自然失业率的理论渊源,梳理了货币主义学派对凯恩斯主义经济学的争论,阐释了附加预期的菲利普斯曲线的意义,并与NAIRU(即非加速通货膨胀失业率)相区别,解析了自然失业率的概念定义,介绍了有关自然失业率的存在和决定因素的理论模型;(2)立足于中国的现实国情,从定性分析的角度指出就业总量过剩、劳动力市场不完善及失业保障体系不健全是目前中国转轨时期决定我国自然失业率的特殊性的三大因素;(3)回顾了自然失业率测量方法的演进,对向量自回归、状态空间等高级计量模型及HP滤波等趋势分离技术进行了比较分析;(4)构造了基于附加预期的菲利普斯曲线和奥肯定律的状态空间模型,利用Kalman滤波初步估算了我国自然失业率的时间序列,并进行了情景分析;(5)针对我国自然失业率的特殊性,对比西方理论模型从鼓励创业、改善市场环境及制度建设等方面给出了相应的合理化政策建议。
Many developed countries, such as OECD member countries, have established some measurement models of the natural rate of unemployment to measure the level of NAIRU in the past ten years or several decades and make comparison between different countries. However, what is the definition of the natural rate of unemployment in western world? How to measure China’s natural rate of unemployment and what is the trend?What are the determining factors that influence the changes of China’s natural rate of unemployment? The existing study on these issues is very few. This paper reviews history of the natural rate of unemployment in western world, establishes the econometric model, measuring China’s natural rate of unemployment and makes an in-depth analysis of the changes of the unemployment rate in China’s economic transition period from the perspective of surplus pressure, the labor market and social unemployment security system, finally gives some policy recommendations.
Chapter I in this paper emphasizes on the significance of the main topic, introduces research background and current situation, and provides research process and frame. The natural rate of unemployment research is an important part of economic research. It could promote development of the labor market in China and make theoretical support to macro-economy policy. With the development of the Phillips curve model, more and more research papers about the natural rate of unemployment to which western world pay much attention have been produced, while a few papers were published in Chinese Journals. The relationship between unemployment and inflation showed by Phillips’study has been the most influential and controversial issue in the practice of macro-economic policies for decades in the West. It also becomes the big issue in China with the establishment of market economy dominant status. This paper mainly analyzes the characters of the natural rate of unemployment in China and measures its level.
ChapterⅡin this paper details the formation and the concept of the natural rate of unemployment in Keynesian economics and Classical economics in the first part. The natural rate of unemployment as the basis of Keynesian economic theory has improved the drawback of Classical economics. Natural rate of unemployment theory provides other theoretical basis and the research field for the monetarist school. It also provides the basis of criticism for the neo-classical economic theory. The second part discusses the evolution of Phillips curve which describes the relationship between inflation and unemployment and introduces the relationship between the Phillips curve and monetary policy. The third part reviews the monetarist school’s challenge to Keynesian economics and analyzes additional expected Phillips curve in both theory and evidence. The fourth part raises a few questions on NAIRU and explains the concept difference between NAIRU and the natural rate of unemployment. The fifth part introduces some new methods of neo-classical economy to study inflation, unemployment and monetary policies to provide some alternative research perspective. The sixth part introduces some new models which study the existence of natural rate of unemployment and the impact of its change.
Chapter III in this paper discusses special characters of China’s natural rate of unemployment. Looking back the origin theory of West's natural rate of unemployment it could be found that the natural rate of unemployment is controversial because its definition has closer ties with the study models of labor force market. In view of the considerable gap between labor force markets in China and west developed countries, it is not possible to copy the Western model directly to discuss the determinants of China’s natural rate of unemployment. Combined with the actual situation in China it is considered that three aspects include surplus pressure, the labor market and social unemployment security system are the determinants which influence the changes of China’s natural rate of unemployment. Some qualitative analysis is given in this chapter supplemented by a large number of facts and figures.
Chapter IV in this paper reviews the evolution of measurements of the natural rate of unemployment in the Western countries. Since the natural rate of unemployment could not be directly observed, so early studies main use OLS regression method. Although the traditional methods can give the stable value of the natural rate of unemployment, it is much harder to reflect the change of real economy. Therefore, recent researches regard the natural rate of unemployment as a time-varying parameter with a high econometric method to estimate the time series of natural rate of unemployment. Scholars use many different models with different parameters. There are many different versions of measurement. This paper divides these models into four categories such as the pure statistical model, the labor market model, the VAR model and simplified structure model, compares the strengths and weaknesses of these models and introduces some advanced trend-separate methods including HP filter, BP filter and Kalman filter. Through comparative analysis State-Space model and Kalman filter are chosen to estimate the China’s natural rate of unemployment. The article also reviews the domestic existing empirical research.
ChapterⅤin this paper estimates China’s natural rate of unemployment by State-Space model which based on additional expected Phillips curve and Okun’s Law. In additional expected Phillips curve the process of the changes in inflation and unemployment was broken into three parts, namely the impact of the natural rate of unemployment, the impact of supply and demand shocks and the impact of natural rate of unemployment which could be estimated as part of the trend by Kalman filter. Okun's Law describes the relationship between unemployment deviation rate and output deviation rate. The model selects the total investment in fixed assets as short-term supply proxy variable.The empirical results show that China’s natural rate of unemployment kept rising in the past decades which reflected the staff of state-owned enterprises continued to divert with China's economic transformation, the stock of the labor force kept increasing. The natural rate of unemployment increased rapidly after 2000 which reflected that the implicit unemployment become more and more apparent.
Combined with the specificity of the natural rate of unemployment and the determinants of the theoretical model, a series of policy recommendations are supplied in Chapter VI. Solving the employment problem need consider the economic policies such as economic growth policy, industrial policy, the state-owned enterprise reform policy, technology policy, fiscal and monetary policies, labor market policy, population policy, social security, urban and rural policy, wage policy and so on. In the large-scale economic restructuring and industrial structure adjustment, structural unemployment is inevitable. In addition to dealing with the surplus pressure, government should strengthen the building of the labor market and reduce the loss of asymmetric information. The improvement of unemployment insurance system in China is also extremely urgent. It is necessary to build clear conditions for payment of unemployment protection. Standards and duration of unemployment in the period would also like to create a positive re-employment environment. On the other hand, efforts should be made to promote technological progress, training groups of specific technique according to the social and economic development needs, affecting the demographic characteristics of the population in labor market, in accordance with the natural rate of unemployment models including the search matching model, efficiency wage model and other competitive model.
Many developed countries, such as OECD member countries, have established some measurement models of the natural rate of unemployment to measure the level of NAIRU in the past ten years or several decades and make comparison between different countries. However, what is the definition of the natural rate of unemployment in western world? How to measure China’s natural rate of unemployment and what is the trend?What are the determining factors that influence the changes of China’s natural rate of unemployment? The existing study on these issues is very few. This paper reviews history of the natural rate of unemployment in western world, establishes the econometric model, measuring China’s natural rate of unemployment and makes an in-depth analysis of the changes of the unemployment rate in China’s economic transition period from the perspective of surplus pressure, the labor market and social unemployment security system, finally gives some policy recommendations.
Chapter I in this paper emphasizes on the significance of the main topic, introduces research background and current situation, and provides research process and frame. The natural rate of unemployment research is an important part of economic research. It could promote development of the labor market in China and make theoretical support to macro-economy policy. With the development of the Phillips curve model, more and more research papers about the natural rate of unemployment to which western world pay much attention have been produced, while a few papers were published in Chinese Journals. The relationship between unemployment and inflation showed by Phillips’study has been the most influential and controversial issue in the practice of macro-economic policies for decades in the West. It also becomes the big issue in China with the establishment of market economy dominant status. This paper mainly analyzes the characters of the natural rate of unemployment in China and measures its level.
ChapterⅡin this paper details the formation and the concept of the natural rate of unemployment in Keynesian economics and Classical economics in the first part. The natural rate of unemployment as the basis of Keynesian economic theory has improved the drawback of Classical economics. Natural rate of unemployment theory provides other theoretical basis and the research field for the monetarist school. It also provides the basis of criticism for the neo-classical economic theory. The second part discusses the evolution of Phillips curve which describes the relationship between inflation and unemployment and introduces the relationship between the Phillips curve and monetary policy. The third part reviews the monetarist school’s challenge to Keynesian economics and analyzes additional expected Phillips curve in both theory and evidence. The fourth part raises a few questions on NAIRU and explains the concept difference between NAIRU and the natural rate of unemployment. The fifth part introduces some new methods of neo-classical economy to study inflation, unemployment and monetary policies to provide some alternative research perspective. The sixth part introduces some new models which study the existence of natural rate of unemployment and the impact of its change.
Chapter III in this paper discusses special characters of China’s natural rate of unemployment. Looking back the origin theory of West's natural rate of unemployment it could be found that the natural rate of unemployment is controversial because its definition has closer ties with the study models of labor force market. In view of the considerable gap between labor force markets in China and west developed countries, it is not possible to copy the Western model directly to discuss the determinants of China’s natural rate of unemployment. Combined with the actual situation in China it is considered that three aspects include surplus pressure, the labor market and social unemployment security system are the determinants which influence the changes of China’s natural rate of unemployment. Some qualitative analysis is given in this chapter supplemented by a large number of facts and figures.
Chapter IV in this paper reviews the evolution of measurements of the natural rate of unemployment in the Western countries. Since the natural rate of unemployment could not be directly observed, so early studies main use OLS regression method. Although the traditional methods can give the stable value of the natural rate of unemployment, it is much harder to reflect the change of real economy. Therefore, recent researches regard the natural rate of unemployment as a time-varying parameter with a high econometric method to estimate the time series of natural rate of unemployment. Scholars use many different models with different parameters. There are many different versions of measurement. This paper divides these models into four categories such as the pure statistical model, the labor market model, the VAR model and simplified structure model, compares the strengths and weaknesses of these models and introduces some advanced trend-separate methods including HP filter, BP filter and Kalman filter. Through comparative analysis State-Space model and Kalman filter are chosen to estimate the China’s natural rate of unemployment. The article also reviews the domestic existing empirical research.
ChapterⅤin this paper estimates China’s natural rate of unemployment by State-Space model which based on additional expected Phillips curve and Okun’s Law. In additional expected Phillips curve the process of the changes in inflation and unemployment was broken into three parts, namely the impact of the natural rate of unemployment, the impact of supply and demand shocks and the impact of natural rate of unemployment which could be estimated as part of the trend by Kalman filter. Okun's Law describes the relationship between unemployment deviation rate and output deviation rate. The model selects the total investment in fixed assets as short-term supply proxy variable.The empirical results show that China’s natural rate of unemployment kept rising in the past decades which reflected the staff of state-owned enterprises continued to divert with China's economic transformation, the stock of the labor force kept increasing. The natural rate of unemployment increased rapidly after 2000 which reflected that the implicit unemployment become more and more apparent.
Combined with the specificity of the natural rate of unemployment and the determinants of the theoretical model, a series of policy recommendations are supplied in Chapter VI. Solving the employment problem need consider the economic policies such as economic growth policy, industrial policy, the state-owned enterprise reform policy, technology policy, fiscal and monetary policies, labor market policy, population policy, social security, urban and rural policy, wage policy and so on. In the large-scale economic restructuring and industrial structure adjustment, structural unemployment is inevitable. In addition to dealing with the surplus pressure, government should strengthen the building of the labor market and reduce the loss of asymmetric information. The improvement of unemployment insurance system in China is also extremely urgent. It is necessary to build clear conditions for payment of unemployment protection. Standards and duration of unemployment in the period would also like to create a positive re-employment environment. On the other hand, efforts should be made to promote technological progress, training groups of specific technique according to the social and economic development needs, affecting the demographic characteristics of the population in labor market, in accordance with the natural rate of unemployment models including the search matching model, efficiency wage model and other competitive model.
引文
①蔡昉,都阳,高文书:就业弹性、自然失业和宏观经济政策———为什么经济增长没有带来显性就业?,《经济研究》,2004年第9期。
②穆熙,肖宏华:我国城镇自然失业率及应用———通货紧缩:忽视失业对宏观调控作用的后果,《经济研究》,2000年第7期。
③曾湘泉,于泳:中国自然失业率的测量与解析,《中国社会科学》,2006年第4期。
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③KEYNES, JOHN M. (1964), Reprint. The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. San Diego: Harcourt Brace and Company. Originally published, 1953,p257.
④粘性假设后来延伸到了总价格研究。
⑤KEYNES, JOHN M. (1964), Reprint. The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. San Diego: Harcourt Brace and Company. Originally published, 1953,p257.
①很多学者将将凯恩斯学派分为凯恩斯主义和新凯恩斯主义,将新古典学派分为新古典学派和新古典综合派,在这里为了便于介绍思想的延承就没有细分学派。
②菲利普斯并不是第一个发现这一规律的学者。早在1926年Irving Fisher发现失业与商品价格通胀负相关。
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③成本推动通胀理论中往往认为工会是主要推进者,但是这与复杂的历史现象不一致,在1982年美国大萧条时期,工会成员的生活成本上升7.2%,非工会成员成本上升6%,平均失业率9.7%,尽管高失业,工人工资都有大幅上涨。
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②弗里德曼定义自然失业率是一种“在瓦尔拉斯均衡基础上,嵌入到劳动力市场和商品市场的真实结构特征,包括市场不完善、需求和供给随机变量、收集信息成本、流动成本等等”的失业水平。
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②自然失业率后来被重新命名为非加速通胀失业率,是为了表明低失业率与加速通胀率有关,而非与固定比例的通胀率增加有关。
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②托宾被认为是第一个使用非加速通胀失业率概念的学者,而Modigliani-Papademos使用的是非通胀失业率概念。
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②Phelps, Edmund (1967), Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation, and Optimal Unemployment over Time, Economica 34 (August): pp254-81.
③Ottosen, Garry K. and Douglas N. Thompson(1996), Reducing Unemployment: A Case for Government Deregulation, Westport, Connecticut London: Praeger Publishers, P11.
①Johnson. G.E. and Layard Richard G.(1986), The Natural Rate of Unemployment: Explanation and Policy, in Ashenfelter O. and Layard R. ed., Handbook of Labor Economics, Elsevier Science Publishers, Amsterdam, pp. 921-999.
②Layard Richard , Nickell, Stephen and Jackman R.(1991), Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labor Market, Oxford University Press, Oxford, England.
③Phelps Edmund S.(1994), The Origins and Further Development of the Natural Rate of Unemployment, in Rod Cross, ed., The Natural Rate Twenty-Five Years On, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England.
④Cross Red(1995a), The Natural Rate of Unemployment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England.
⑤Silvia Fabiani & Ricardo Mestre( 2004), A system approach for measuring the euro area NAIRU, Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 311-341, 05.
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①蔡昉,都阳,高文书:就业弹性、自然失业和宏观经济政策———为什么经济增长没有带来显性就业?,《经济研究》,2004年第9期。
②曾湘泉,于泳:中国自然失业率的测量与解析,《中国社会科学》,2006年第4期。
①模型主要参考石柱鲜,武征,刘俊生,黄红梅:2004年我国主要宏观经济指标的变动趋势分析,数量经济与技术经济研究,2004年第7期。
①曾湘泉,于泳:中国自然失业率的测量与解析,《中国社会科学》,2006年第4期。
①王诚:中国就业发展新论——核心就业与非核心就业理论分析,经济研究,2002年第12期。
②李正友、毕先萍:技术进步的就业效应——一个理论分析框架,经济评论,2004年第2期。
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③KEYNES, JOHN M. (1964), Reprint. The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. San Diego: Harcourt Brace and Company. Originally published, 1953,p257.
④粘性假设后来延伸到了总价格研究。
⑤KEYNES, JOHN M. (1964), Reprint. The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. San Diego: Harcourt Brace and Company. Originally published, 1953,p257.
①很多学者将将凯恩斯学派分为凯恩斯主义和新凯恩斯主义,将新古典学派分为新古典学派和新古典综合派,在这里为了便于介绍思想的延承就没有细分学派。
②菲利普斯并不是第一个发现这一规律的学者。早在1926年Irving Fisher发现失业与商品价格通胀负相关。
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③成本推动通胀理论中往往认为工会是主要推进者,但是这与复杂的历史现象不一致,在1982年美国大萧条时期,工会成员的生活成本上升7.2%,非工会成员成本上升6%,平均失业率9.7%,尽管高失业,工人工资都有大幅上涨。
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②弗里德曼定义自然失业率是一种“在瓦尔拉斯均衡基础上,嵌入到劳动力市场和商品市场的真实结构特征,包括市场不完善、需求和供给随机变量、收集信息成本、流动成本等等”的失业水平。
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②自然失业率后来被重新命名为非加速通胀失业率,是为了表明低失业率与加速通胀率有关,而非与固定比例的通胀率增加有关。
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②托宾被认为是第一个使用非加速通胀失业率概念的学者,而Modigliani-Papademos使用的是非通胀失业率概念。
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②Phelps, Edmund (1967), Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation, and Optimal Unemployment over Time, Economica 34 (August): pp254-81.
③Ottosen, Garry K. and Douglas N. Thompson(1996), Reducing Unemployment: A Case for Government Deregulation, Westport, Connecticut London: Praeger Publishers, P11.
①Johnson. G.E. and Layard Richard G.(1986), The Natural Rate of Unemployment: Explanation and Policy, in Ashenfelter O. and Layard R. ed., Handbook of Labor Economics, Elsevier Science Publishers, Amsterdam, pp. 921-999.
②Layard Richard , Nickell, Stephen and Jackman R.(1991), Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labor Market, Oxford University Press, Oxford, England.
③Phelps Edmund S.(1994), The Origins and Further Development of the Natural Rate of Unemployment, in Rod Cross, ed., The Natural Rate Twenty-Five Years On, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England.
④Cross Red(1995a), The Natural Rate of Unemployment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England.
⑤Silvia Fabiani & Ricardo Mestre( 2004), A system approach for measuring the euro area NAIRU, Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 311-341, 05.
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②曾湘泉,于泳:中国自然失业率的测量与解析,《中国社会科学》,2006年第4期。
①模型主要参考石柱鲜,武征,刘俊生,黄红梅:2004年我国主要宏观经济指标的变动趋势分析,数量经济与技术经济研究,2004年第7期。
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①王诚:中国就业发展新论——核心就业与非核心就业理论分析,经济研究,2002年第12期。
②李正友、毕先萍:技术进步的就业效应——一个理论分析框架,经济评论,2004年第2期。
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