我国对外贸易应对通货膨胀的策略研究
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摘要
本文主要是分析在通货膨胀这样一个大环境下,基于我国对外贸易中所面临的诸多挑战的基础上,在我国对外贸易机构处于调整关键时期的宏观经济条件下,来探讨我国对外贸易应对通货膨胀的策略。本文将研究的重点放在以下两点：一、调查和分析在通货膨胀情况下我国对外贸易企业的经营现状,根据得出的结果来分析通货膨胀给我国对外贸易企业经营所带来的影响；二、根据发现的问题,提出我国对外贸易企业为适应快速上涨的CPI采取的应对措施及途径。
文章从通货膨胀理论入手,具体介绍通货膨胀的形成机制,包括非货币学派通胀论和货币学派通胀论。并分别从居民消费价格指数(CPI)的上涨,生产价格指数(PPI)的上涨,及其他价格指数的上涨以和成本的上升推动等方面来介绍我国本轮通货膨胀的特征。然后分析出通货膨胀环境下对外贸易存在的困境,在此基础上,提出对外贸易应对快速上涨的CPI的一系列建议措施。
本文采用定性研究和定量研究为主的研究方法。具体表现在：基于通货膨胀的基础理论,配合国内外相关文献研究并针对通货膨胀对我国对外贸易的影响,对调查结果进行深入的定性分析并结合定量分析。
从文章中可以发现通货膨胀对我国对外贸易造成的一系列恶劣影响,我国对外贸易企业在应对这场由于成本上涨而给企业经营发展带来挑战的危机时,一定要树立一种机遇意识。面对原材料、能源价格的大幅上涨,既要积极采取各种应对措施,将不利因素的影响降到最低,也要善于发现和抓住宏观经济变化带来的发展机遇。
This paper explores the strategy of dealing with inflation for Chinese foreign trade, based on the many challenges which Chinese foreign trade met, in the crucial period of macroeconomic conditions when Chinese foreign trade sector is adjusting. The paper focuses on the two following points:First, investigate and analyze the operating conditions of Chinese foreign trade enterprises with inflation. According to the results of analysis, the paper analyzes the main problem to Chinese foreign trade enterprises from inflation; Second, according to the problem, Chinese foreign trade enterprises take the measure to response to the inflation.
With the theory of inflation, this paper describes the formation of the inflation with non-monetarist inflation theory and monetary inflation, and also describes the characteristics of the inflation in the respect of the rise of Consumer Price Index (CPI), the rise of Producer Price Index (PPI). T hrough the analysis of the relation between the inflation and the trade growth, we know the plight of foreign trade with the inflation. On this basis, the paper proposes the response to the rise of price.
This paper uses qualitative and quantitative research. With the basic theory of inflation, domestic and foreign literature, and the results of the survey, it qualitatively and quantitatively analyzes.
In this paper we find a series of influence on the foreign trade. Chinese foreign trade enterprises should establish an awareness of opportunities in responding to the challenges from the rising costs to the development of the business. With the rise price of materials, we should not only actively adopt various measures to minimize the impact of unfavorable factors, but also seize the opportunities brought by the change of macro-economics.
文章从通货膨胀理论入手,具体介绍通货膨胀的形成机制,包括非货币学派通胀论和货币学派通胀论。并分别从居民消费价格指数(CPI)的上涨,生产价格指数(PPI)的上涨,及其他价格指数的上涨以和成本的上升推动等方面来介绍我国本轮通货膨胀的特征。然后分析出通货膨胀环境下对外贸易存在的困境,在此基础上,提出对外贸易应对快速上涨的CPI的一系列建议措施。
本文采用定性研究和定量研究为主的研究方法。具体表现在：基于通货膨胀的基础理论,配合国内外相关文献研究并针对通货膨胀对我国对外贸易的影响,对调查结果进行深入的定性分析并结合定量分析。
从文章中可以发现通货膨胀对我国对外贸易造成的一系列恶劣影响,我国对外贸易企业在应对这场由于成本上涨而给企业经营发展带来挑战的危机时,一定要树立一种机遇意识。面对原材料、能源价格的大幅上涨,既要积极采取各种应对措施,将不利因素的影响降到最低,也要善于发现和抓住宏观经济变化带来的发展机遇。
This paper explores the strategy of dealing with inflation for Chinese foreign trade, based on the many challenges which Chinese foreign trade met, in the crucial period of macroeconomic conditions when Chinese foreign trade sector is adjusting. The paper focuses on the two following points:First, investigate and analyze the operating conditions of Chinese foreign trade enterprises with inflation. According to the results of analysis, the paper analyzes the main problem to Chinese foreign trade enterprises from inflation; Second, according to the problem, Chinese foreign trade enterprises take the measure to response to the inflation.
With the theory of inflation, this paper describes the formation of the inflation with non-monetarist inflation theory and monetary inflation, and also describes the characteristics of the inflation in the respect of the rise of Consumer Price Index (CPI), the rise of Producer Price Index (PPI). T hrough the analysis of the relation between the inflation and the trade growth, we know the plight of foreign trade with the inflation. On this basis, the paper proposes the response to the rise of price.
This paper uses qualitative and quantitative research. With the basic theory of inflation, domestic and foreign literature, and the results of the survey, it qualitatively and quantitatively analyzes.
In this paper we find a series of influence on the foreign trade. Chinese foreign trade enterprises should establish an awareness of opportunities in responding to the challenges from the rising costs to the development of the business. With the rise price of materials, we should not only actively adopt various measures to minimize the impact of unfavorable factors, but also seize the opportunities brought by the change of macro-economics.
引文
[1]樊彩跃.中长期保持“高增长、低通胀”面临的主要问题.宏观经济管理,2008(4).
[2]陈国辉,段鹏.我国的外汇储备与通货膨胀.经济管理,2007.
[3]保罗·萨缪尔森著,萧琛译.宏观经济学.北京：华夏出版社,1999.
[4]石良平.加息的宏观效应.我国统计,2007。
[5]娄丽丽.对我国宏观经济形势和政策的分析.宏观经济管理,2007.
[6]李阳.央行连续上调存款准备金率的原因与预期效应.财经科学,2007.
[7]胡怀帮.外汇储备增长于抑制通货膨胀.当代经济科学,2008.
[8]Heckman N.E.Spine smoothing in partly linear models'R Statistical Soc B,1986,48(2),224-248.
[9]闫先东,冯克然.通货膨胀—国际收支角度的考察.财贸经济,1997,(4)：51-57.
[10]Michael.Darby. Inflation, Financial Innovation and Monetary Policies-Some Contemporary Challenges.GIC, CEPII. Paris,2008.
[11]Kevin.Nell. Profile likelihood inferences our semi parametric varying-coefficient partially linear models [J].Bemolli,2005,11(6),1031-1057.
[12]余珊萍.我国对外开放、通货膨胀与经济增长相关关系的模型检测.经济科学,2002(3)：64-71.
[13]国家统计局课题组.我国通货膨胀的趋势分析.统计研究,2005,(5)：3-9.
[14]陈彦斌.中国当前通货膨胀形成原因经验研究：2003-2007年.经济理论与经济管理,2008,(2)：16-22.
[15]陈全功,程蹊.通货膨胀理论.北京：商务印书馆,2004.
[16]金汶.变革与发展：通货膨胀和紧缩的困扰.北京：当代中国出版社,1993：1.
[17]余珊萍,钟伟.通货膨胀的国际传导与对策.北京：中国财政经济出版社,1998：5-10.
[18]何筱微.我国通货膨胀形成机制和作用机制的计量研究.吉林长春：吉林大学商学院,2007：31.
[19]TEMPL E, J.Openness, inflation and the Phillips curves:puzzle. Journal of Money Credit and Banking,2002,34:450-468.
[20]GAMBER, E., J.HUN G. Has the rise in globalization reduced U. S. inflation in the 1990[J].Economic Inquiry,2001,39 (1):58-73.
[21]陈全功,程蹊.我国对外贸易影响国内通货膨胀水平的路径分析.国际金融研究,2004(2)：51-56.
[22]黄新飞.贸易开放度与通货膨胀：基于社会福利的分析框架.南方经济,2007(2)：67-77
[23]Aukrst.Inflation in the open economy Ames Model's and Sunland's ed.Worldwide Inflation, Institute for InternationalEconemics,1997.
[24]李杰.通货膨胀和通货紧缩.北京：中国社会科学出版社,2003。
[25]李晓西.现代通货膨胀理论比较研究：中国社会科学出版社,1991.
[26]陈丹丹,任保平.需求冲击与通货膨胀—基于中国的经验研究.当代财经,2008(6)：9-13.
[27]温浩.论贸易对中国通货膨胀的影响.金融发展研究,2008(05)：48-50.
[28]Lars E.O Swenson, "Optimal inflation targets,'conservative'central banks, and linear inflation contracts," the American Economic Review, Vole87, No.1,1997.
[29]Muscatels V.A.,1999. Inflation contracts and inflation targets under uncertainty:why we might need a conservative central banker. Economical 66,241-288.
[30]柳永明.通货膨胀目标制的理论与实践：十年回顾.世界经济,2006(21)：23-30.
[31]唐志新.通货膨胀目标制与我国货币政策.金融纵横],2005(1)：10-13.
[32]Paul R Masson, Mug eel A. Salvation and Sunil Sharma. The scope for inflation targeting in developing countries, IMF working paper,1997,97130.
[33]国家统计局课题组.我国通货膨胀的趋势分析.统计研究,2005年(5).
[34]胡鞍钢,谢平.关于通货紧缩的货币政策.金融研究,1999年第(10).
[35]李力,杨柳.对1996-2005年间我国通货膨胀成因的实证研究.理论与实践,2006(1)：9-13.
[36]刘金全,谢卫东.我国经济增长与通货膨胀动态相关性.世界经济,2003(6)：51-56.
[37]任碧云,李涛.从历次通货膨胀看我国当前宏观调控政策选择.经济理论与经济管理,2008(7)
[38]张晓第.我国新一轮通货膨胀的特征、成因及其对策.经济研究导刊,2008(2)
[39]陈燕.中国通货膨胀成因分析.商场现代化,2008(3).
[40]李静雯.通货膨胀目标制在我国的适用性分析.金融证券,2007(12)
[41]简泽.中国核心通货膨胀的估计.数量经济技术经济研究,2005(11)：4-14.
[2]陈国辉,段鹏.我国的外汇储备与通货膨胀.经济管理,2007.
[3]保罗·萨缪尔森著,萧琛译.宏观经济学.北京：华夏出版社,1999.
[4]石良平.加息的宏观效应.我国统计,2007。
[5]娄丽丽.对我国宏观经济形势和政策的分析.宏观经济管理,2007.
[6]李阳.央行连续上调存款准备金率的原因与预期效应.财经科学,2007.
[7]胡怀帮.外汇储备增长于抑制通货膨胀.当代经济科学,2008.
[8]Heckman N.E.Spine smoothing in partly linear models'R Statistical Soc B,1986,48(2),224-248.
[9]闫先东,冯克然.通货膨胀—国际收支角度的考察.财贸经济,1997,(4)：51-57.
[10]Michael.Darby. Inflation, Financial Innovation and Monetary Policies-Some Contemporary Challenges.GIC, CEPII. Paris,2008.
[11]Kevin.Nell. Profile likelihood inferences our semi parametric varying-coefficient partially linear models [J].Bemolli,2005,11(6),1031-1057.
[12]余珊萍.我国对外开放、通货膨胀与经济增长相关关系的模型检测.经济科学,2002(3)：64-71.
[13]国家统计局课题组.我国通货膨胀的趋势分析.统计研究,2005,(5)：3-9.
[14]陈彦斌.中国当前通货膨胀形成原因经验研究：2003-2007年.经济理论与经济管理,2008,(2)：16-22.
[15]陈全功,程蹊.通货膨胀理论.北京：商务印书馆,2004.
[16]金汶.变革与发展：通货膨胀和紧缩的困扰.北京：当代中国出版社,1993：1.
[17]余珊萍,钟伟.通货膨胀的国际传导与对策.北京：中国财政经济出版社,1998：5-10.
[18]何筱微.我国通货膨胀形成机制和作用机制的计量研究.吉林长春：吉林大学商学院,2007：31.
[19]TEMPL E, J.Openness, inflation and the Phillips curves:puzzle. Journal of Money Credit and Banking,2002,34:450-468.
[20]GAMBER, E., J.HUN G. Has the rise in globalization reduced U. S. inflation in the 1990[J].Economic Inquiry,2001,39 (1):58-73.
[21]陈全功,程蹊.我国对外贸易影响国内通货膨胀水平的路径分析.国际金融研究,2004(2)：51-56.
[22]黄新飞.贸易开放度与通货膨胀：基于社会福利的分析框架.南方经济,2007(2)：67-77
[23]Aukrst.Inflation in the open economy Ames Model's and Sunland's ed.Worldwide Inflation, Institute for InternationalEconemics,1997.
[24]李杰.通货膨胀和通货紧缩.北京：中国社会科学出版社,2003。
[25]李晓西.现代通货膨胀理论比较研究：中国社会科学出版社,1991.
[26]陈丹丹,任保平.需求冲击与通货膨胀—基于中国的经验研究.当代财经,2008(6)：9-13.
[27]温浩.论贸易对中国通货膨胀的影响.金融发展研究,2008(05)：48-50.
[28]Lars E.O Swenson, "Optimal inflation targets,'conservative'central banks, and linear inflation contracts," the American Economic Review, Vole87, No.1,1997.
[29]Muscatels V.A.,1999. Inflation contracts and inflation targets under uncertainty:why we might need a conservative central banker. Economical 66,241-288.
[30]柳永明.通货膨胀目标制的理论与实践：十年回顾.世界经济,2006(21)：23-30.
[31]唐志新.通货膨胀目标制与我国货币政策.金融纵横],2005(1)：10-13.
[32]Paul R Masson, Mug eel A. Salvation and Sunil Sharma. The scope for inflation targeting in developing countries, IMF working paper,1997,97130.
[33]国家统计局课题组.我国通货膨胀的趋势分析.统计研究,2005年(5).
[34]胡鞍钢,谢平.关于通货紧缩的货币政策.金融研究,1999年第(10).
[35]李力,杨柳.对1996-2005年间我国通货膨胀成因的实证研究.理论与实践,2006(1)：9-13.
[36]刘金全,谢卫东.我国经济增长与通货膨胀动态相关性.世界经济,2003(6)：51-56.
[37]任碧云,李涛.从历次通货膨胀看我国当前宏观调控政策选择.经济理论与经济管理,2008(7)
[38]张晓第.我国新一轮通货膨胀的特征、成因及其对策.经济研究导刊,2008(2)
[39]陈燕.中国通货膨胀成因分析.商场现代化,2008(3).
[40]李静雯.通货膨胀目标制在我国的适用性分析.金融证券,2007(12)
[41]简泽.中国核心通货膨胀的估计.数量经济技术经济研究,2005(11)：4-14.