中国高技术产业系统演化特征研究
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摘要
高技术产业已经成为21世纪推动经济发展的重要力量。发达国家和地区的发展实践已经充分说明高技术产业的发展已经是大势所趋。随着经济发展水平的不断提高以及社会分工的进一步深化,高技术产业对经济增长将产生更大的促进作用,也会在一定程度上影响制造业的未来发展。高技术产业已经成为众多学者的研究对象,本文也从系统演化角度对高技术产业进行了较为深入的研究。
高技术产业在众多的发达国家已经成为经济增长的主力军。而我国的高技术产业由于起步较晚,与发达国家还存在巨大的差距。这些差距使对高技术产业的研究更有战略意义。此外,我国的高技术产业还存在着显著的地区性差异。研究高技术产业的地区性发展差距,对深入了解高技术产业与经济增长之间的关系,以及寻求缩小高技术产业发展不均衡问题的有效解决途径有重要的理论意义和实际意义。
本文主要运用系统科学的相关理论,并且结合运用规范与实证、定性与定量相结合的研究方法对高技术产业的演化进行了分析。论文对高技术产业系统的定义、特征,高技术产业系统的演化轨迹,高技术产业演化发展的自组织演化和他组织演化等进行了详尽的阐述,并在此基础上,比较分析了我国高技术产业演化发展所处的logistic曲线阶段,再运用因子分析法对我国高技术产业发展的现状进行了实证分析。
本文结合2009年的截面数据,建立了高技术产业发展状况的评价体系,并运用因子分析方法考察了我国30个省、直辖市和自治区(西藏自治区不包括在内)高技术产业发展的状况。本文对高技术产业考核的指标主要可以分为发展实力和技术创新两个方面,再从中各选取了6个指标,共计12个指标。通过因子分析法后,将这12个指标整合为3个公共因子,再通过综合的因子得分来评判30个省、直辖市和自治区的高技术产业发展状况。文章发现我国的高技术产业发展存在显著的地区性不均衡的状况,东部地区总体发展状况明显优于中西部地区,而中西部地区之间的差距相对较小。在此基础上,文章从自组织和他组织两个角度探究我国高技术产业系统演化结果的阶梯状分布的原因。
文章得到的主要研究结论有：第一,我国的高技术产业是一个远离平衡态的自组织系统；第二,高技术产业系统的演化需要自组织和他组织共同作用；第三,高技术产业的发展对初始条件存在敏感依赖。在文章的最后根据我国高技术产业发展的现状提出了相应的政策建议。首先,我国的高技术产业系统的对外开放性应该增强。其次,针对我国高技术产业系统发展的不均衡性与子系统内部的非一致性,政府应该打破地域间的偏见,增加地域间的高技术产业系统的协同发展。最后,我国的高技术产业系统整体应该注重技术的序参量作用,增强自主创新,建立自有品牌,实现产业系统整体的超循环。
In the21st century high-tech (short for "High-technology") is becoming an important force in promoting the development of economy. Lots of practices in developed countries and regions have fully demonstrated that the development of high-tech industry is the trend of the time. Along with the development of economy and the complication of labor division, the high-tech will play a more important role in the growth of economy, in the meantime it will have kind of effect on the development of the manufacturing in the future. High-tech now has already become a subject which attracts lots of scholars'attention to study and analyze. This paper also concentrates on the high-tech and does some deeper research from the system theory.
In many developed countries, high-tech industry has become the main force of the economic growth. However, as the high-tech in China starts later than the developed countries, there is a huge gap between the developed countries and China in this field. The gap has a more significant strategic meaning for China. To make things worse, the development of the high-tech industry in China are different among regions. The study of the imbalances among the regions has great theoretical and practical significance both in the deeper research between the relationship of high-tech and the growth of economy, and offer advices to enhance the situation of the regional imbalance.
This paper analyzes the evolution of the high-tech industry through intergrating use of the intergration of normative and empirical, qualitative and quantitative research methods and integration of self-organization theory, evolutionary economics and other theoretical knowledge. The paper has carried on the detailed exposition to the definition of the high-tech industry system and its characteristics, evolution track of the high-tech industry system, as well as the self-organization of the high-tech industry's evolution. Based on these, analysis the stage of which China's high-tech industry evolution is in the logistic curve, and provide further empirical analysis of the current situation of China's high-tech industry by using the factor analysis.
Combined the cross-sectional data in2009, established an evaluation system of the development of the high-tech industry. By means of the factor analysis we have studied the state of the high-tech industry in30provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China (Tibet Autonomous Region is excluded). The assessment of the indicators of high-tech industry's development can be divided into two aspects. One is the development of economics, another is the ability of technical innovation. Then select6secondary indicators from the two aspects. Therefore, the evaluation system includes12indicators totally. By factor analysis the12indicators are represented by3common factors. At last judge the high-tech industry development of the30provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions by calculating the combined scores. In the paper we find out that the development of high-tech in China is significantly imbalance among different regions. The overall development of the eastern regions is much better than central and western regions, while the gap between the central and western regions is relatively smaller. In addition, the development of high-tech within the region is also non-uniformity. Even the provinces which have a high combined score are not balanced in all of the indicators, they are also internal inconsistencies.
Through systematic analysis we get the following conclusions. First, the high-tech industry of China is a self-organization system which is far from equilibrium. Second, the evolution of the high-tech industry system is not completely self-organization, hetero-organization also play an important role in the evolution of high-tech industry system. Third, the high-tech industry is sensitive dependence on initial conditions. In the last part of the paper, we state our advices on how to improve our high-tech industry. Firstly, the opening up of China's high-tech industry system should be improved. Government should develop a series of policies which can benefit the development of the high-tech industry system, and encourage the exchange of materials, energies and information resources between the China high-tech industry system and external high-tech industry system. Secondly, government should break the geographical discrimination, in order to solve the problem of the unbalance of the high-tech industry and the non-consistency of the subsystem. The most important of all is that we should focus on the development of innovation, and establish our own brand, then finally to achieve the super-cycle.
高技术产业在众多的发达国家已经成为经济增长的主力军。而我国的高技术产业由于起步较晚,与发达国家还存在巨大的差距。这些差距使对高技术产业的研究更有战略意义。此外,我国的高技术产业还存在着显著的地区性差异。研究高技术产业的地区性发展差距,对深入了解高技术产业与经济增长之间的关系,以及寻求缩小高技术产业发展不均衡问题的有效解决途径有重要的理论意义和实际意义。
本文主要运用系统科学的相关理论,并且结合运用规范与实证、定性与定量相结合的研究方法对高技术产业的演化进行了分析。论文对高技术产业系统的定义、特征,高技术产业系统的演化轨迹,高技术产业演化发展的自组织演化和他组织演化等进行了详尽的阐述,并在此基础上,比较分析了我国高技术产业演化发展所处的logistic曲线阶段,再运用因子分析法对我国高技术产业发展的现状进行了实证分析。
本文结合2009年的截面数据,建立了高技术产业发展状况的评价体系,并运用因子分析方法考察了我国30个省、直辖市和自治区(西藏自治区不包括在内)高技术产业发展的状况。本文对高技术产业考核的指标主要可以分为发展实力和技术创新两个方面,再从中各选取了6个指标,共计12个指标。通过因子分析法后,将这12个指标整合为3个公共因子,再通过综合的因子得分来评判30个省、直辖市和自治区的高技术产业发展状况。文章发现我国的高技术产业发展存在显著的地区性不均衡的状况,东部地区总体发展状况明显优于中西部地区,而中西部地区之间的差距相对较小。在此基础上,文章从自组织和他组织两个角度探究我国高技术产业系统演化结果的阶梯状分布的原因。
文章得到的主要研究结论有：第一,我国的高技术产业是一个远离平衡态的自组织系统；第二,高技术产业系统的演化需要自组织和他组织共同作用；第三,高技术产业的发展对初始条件存在敏感依赖。在文章的最后根据我国高技术产业发展的现状提出了相应的政策建议。首先,我国的高技术产业系统的对外开放性应该增强。其次,针对我国高技术产业系统发展的不均衡性与子系统内部的非一致性,政府应该打破地域间的偏见,增加地域间的高技术产业系统的协同发展。最后,我国的高技术产业系统整体应该注重技术的序参量作用,增强自主创新,建立自有品牌,实现产业系统整体的超循环。
In the21st century high-tech (short for "High-technology") is becoming an important force in promoting the development of economy. Lots of practices in developed countries and regions have fully demonstrated that the development of high-tech industry is the trend of the time. Along with the development of economy and the complication of labor division, the high-tech will play a more important role in the growth of economy, in the meantime it will have kind of effect on the development of the manufacturing in the future. High-tech now has already become a subject which attracts lots of scholars'attention to study and analyze. This paper also concentrates on the high-tech and does some deeper research from the system theory.
In many developed countries, high-tech industry has become the main force of the economic growth. However, as the high-tech in China starts later than the developed countries, there is a huge gap between the developed countries and China in this field. The gap has a more significant strategic meaning for China. To make things worse, the development of the high-tech industry in China are different among regions. The study of the imbalances among the regions has great theoretical and practical significance both in the deeper research between the relationship of high-tech and the growth of economy, and offer advices to enhance the situation of the regional imbalance.
This paper analyzes the evolution of the high-tech industry through intergrating use of the intergration of normative and empirical, qualitative and quantitative research methods and integration of self-organization theory, evolutionary economics and other theoretical knowledge. The paper has carried on the detailed exposition to the definition of the high-tech industry system and its characteristics, evolution track of the high-tech industry system, as well as the self-organization of the high-tech industry's evolution. Based on these, analysis the stage of which China's high-tech industry evolution is in the logistic curve, and provide further empirical analysis of the current situation of China's high-tech industry by using the factor analysis.
Combined the cross-sectional data in2009, established an evaluation system of the development of the high-tech industry. By means of the factor analysis we have studied the state of the high-tech industry in30provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China (Tibet Autonomous Region is excluded). The assessment of the indicators of high-tech industry's development can be divided into two aspects. One is the development of economics, another is the ability of technical innovation. Then select6secondary indicators from the two aspects. Therefore, the evaluation system includes12indicators totally. By factor analysis the12indicators are represented by3common factors. At last judge the high-tech industry development of the30provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions by calculating the combined scores. In the paper we find out that the development of high-tech in China is significantly imbalance among different regions. The overall development of the eastern regions is much better than central and western regions, while the gap between the central and western regions is relatively smaller. In addition, the development of high-tech within the region is also non-uniformity. Even the provinces which have a high combined score are not balanced in all of the indicators, they are also internal inconsistencies.
Through systematic analysis we get the following conclusions. First, the high-tech industry of China is a self-organization system which is far from equilibrium. Second, the evolution of the high-tech industry system is not completely self-organization, hetero-organization also play an important role in the evolution of high-tech industry system. Third, the high-tech industry is sensitive dependence on initial conditions. In the last part of the paper, we state our advices on how to improve our high-tech industry. Firstly, the opening up of China's high-tech industry system should be improved. Government should develop a series of policies which can benefit the development of the high-tech industry system, and encourage the exchange of materials, energies and information resources between the China high-tech industry system and external high-tech industry system. Secondly, government should break the geographical discrimination, in order to solve the problem of the unbalance of the high-tech industry and the non-consistency of the subsystem. The most important of all is that we should focus on the development of innovation, and establish our own brand, then finally to achieve the super-cycle.
引文
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