城市居民节能行为影响因素及引导政策研究
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摘要
我国作为世界第一的人口大国，居民的能源消费对经济和社会发展有着显著影响。我国快速的城市化进程和不断提高的居民生活水平，也将带来不断增加的生活能源需求，如何促进城市居民这一生活能源消费主体的节能行为是建设节约和低碳社会的关键，我国东部地区经济发展水平高但能源自给水平较低，因此，引导东部地区城市居民节能更加具有重要的现实意义。
居民的节能行为选择是一个复杂的过程，本文依据提出问题—理论研究—实证研究的技术路线，以我国东部地区城市居民节能行为为研究对象，综合运用行为学和心理学等基本理论与方法，以经典的行为理论模型为基础，构建了城市居民节能行为影响因素理论模型，通过问卷调查样本数据，对东部地区城市居民节能行为的内在和外在影响机理进行了深入系统的研究，理清了城市居民节能行为的内在机理，进而借鉴复杂适应性系统建模思想，建立基于Netlogo平台的城市居民节能行为仿真系统，分析了城市居民在外部环境变化情形下的节能行为意愿和节能行为的动态变化，最后，基于实证和仿真研究结果设计了城市居民节能行为引导政策体系，有针对性地提出了政策建议。具体研究内容主要包括以下三个方面：
第一，城市居民节能行为影响因素模型构建与实证分析。在文献研究的基础上，结合基于扎根理论质性研究的思想与方法对居民开展的深度访谈资料和专家咨询资料，筛选出了四大影响因素范畴：社会人口学因素、个体心理特征因素、情境因素、行为结果因素，建立了城市居民节能行为影响因素理论模型，对变量因素间的关系路径进行了描述，并提出了研究假设。基于本文开发的城市居民节能行为测量量表，以在我国东部城市开展的预调研和正式调研获取的大样本数据为基础，运用多元统计分析方法和结构方程模型对城市居民节能行为影响因素理论模型进行了实证检验。
结果表明居民的节能行为受到上述四类因素的共同影响：人口统计特征因素和家庭特征因素直接作用于居民的节能行为；个体心理特征因素包括价值观、能源问题敏感度、节能知识、主观规范、自我效能感、行为控制感知、环境心理控制源和舒适偏好8个变量，主要通过节能行为意愿这一中介变量间接地作用于节能行为，除环境心理控制源中的外控型心理控制源和舒适偏好对节能行为意愿的影响为负向外，其余因素均对节能行为意愿起到促进作用；情境因素包括节能社会规范、政策普及程度、政策执行力度和效度、信息干预力度和效度、价格因素和节能产品属性6个变量，通过调节节能行为意愿到节能行为的转化过程从而作用于节能行为；节能行为结果中的经济节省和精神满足两个维度对节能行为意愿均有显著影响，但经济节省的显著性和影响程度较低。
第二，城市居民节能行为多主体仿真模型构建与结果分析。根据城市居民节能行为影响因素实证分析提供的理论和数据基础，基于复杂适应性理论的思想和方法，借助Netlogo仿真平台，建立了城市居民节能行为多主体仿真系统，通过植入人工神经网络实现了居民Agent的智能性，验证了外部节能政策与城市居民节能行为涌现的内在关系的复杂机理，通过设定不同的参数，仿真了不同政策情形下居民节能行为选择和节能行为意愿的短期与长期的动态变化，全面反映了现实情境中个体长期节能行为选择和行为结果对意愿的作用。
结果表明，在无外部政策作用的情况下，居民的节能行为意愿和节能行为呈现出明显的不匹配状况，其中，节能行为意愿与品质阈限节能行为的匹配程度最差，其次为节能行为意愿与人际促进节能行为的匹配程度。不同类型的政策对节能行为意愿向不同节能行为转化的作用强度和方向有所不同，节能社会规范和政策普及程度因素中的引导型政策普及程度对节能行为意愿到习惯调整、能效投资和人际促进节能行为转化的促进作用显著，政策普及程度因素中的经济型政策普及程度以及能源价格水平对节能行为意愿到习惯调整、品质阈限、能效投资节能行为转化的促进作用显著，政策执行力度和效度、信息干预力度和效度对节能行为意愿到习惯调整、品质阈限、能效投资和人际促进节能行为转化的促进作用显著，节能产品属性对节能行为意愿到能效投资节能行为转化的促进作用显著，节能产品价格水平对节能行为意愿到能效投资节能行为的转化抑制作用显著。长期来看，通过调整节能社会规范、引导型政策普及程度、政策执行和信息干预力度和效度能够强化节能行为意愿，从而长期稳定地促进节能行为的实施。
最后，综合本文实证分析和仿真研究的结果，从技术措施、经济措施和信息措施三种不同政策类型角度设计了城市居民节能引导政策体系，提出了引导我国城市居民节能行为的政策建议。
As the country that has the biggest population in the world, China’s residents’energy consumption is of obvious significance on economic and social development.With rapid urbanization process and residents’living standard improving continuously,demand of living energy will keep increasing. Promoting urban residents that are themajor group of living energy consumption to implement energy conservation behaviorare the key to build saving-and low-carbon society. Especially, the level of economicdevelopment of eastern region’ is high; however, the level of self-sufficiency ofenergy is low. Therefore, guiding urban residents of eastern region to implementenergy conservation behavior is of more practical significance.
Energy-conservation behavior choice of residents is a complex process. Thispaper’s technical route is from raising questions to theoretical research and empiricalresearch taking urban resident’s energy-conservation behavior as the research object.Based on the classical theory of behavior models, this paper establishes the theorymodel of the influencing factors on urban residents’ energy conservation behaviorusing the theory and methods of behavioristic and psychology. Using the data from aquestionnaire survey among urban residents of eastern region, the internal andexternal influencing factors are analyzed deeply and systematically. The internalmechanism of urban residents’ energy conservation behavior is clarified. And thenbased on the complex adaptive system theory, the simulation system is establishedusing the simulation platform Netlogo. On the situation of the external policyenvironment change, the behavioral intention and the behavioral choice of energyconservation of urban residents is dynamically analyzed. Finally, after the empiricalanalysis and simulation research, the policy system of guiding urban residents’ energyconservation behavior is designed and the policy suggestions are proposed. The threespecific research contents are as follows:
Firstly, the theory model of the influencing factors of urban residents’ energyconservation behavior establishment and empirical analysis. On the basis of literatureresearch, this paper carries out in-depth interviews on urban residents and consultationwith experts, uses qualitative research method of grounded theory. Then theinfluencing factors are filtered into four concepts: social demographic factors,individual’s psychology characteristics factors, situational factors and behavioralresults factors. And the theory model of the influencing factors of urban residents’energy conservation behavior is built, the relationship of these factors is described and the research hypotheses are proposed. Using our measurement scale，the preliminarysurvey and the formal one is carried out among the urban residents of eastern region.On the basis of the survey data, the model of influencing factors of energyconservation behavior is tested using the method of multivariate statistical analysisand structural equation model.
The results show that urban residents’ energy conservation behaviors aresynthetically affected by those four factors. Social demographic variables have directeffects on them. Individual’s psychology characteristics factors contain of eightvariables---values, sensitiveness of energy problems, knowledge of energyconservation behavior, perceived self-efficacy, perceived behavior control andpreferences of comfort affect the behavior mainly through the mediatingvariabls---behavior intention. External environmental locus of control and preferenceof comfort have negative effects and the others have positive ones. Situational factorshave six variables---social norms of energy conservation, popularization ofenergy-conservation policy, execution and validity of policy, execution and validity ofinformation intervention, level of price and factors of energy-conservation products,which can regulate the process of intention transforming into behavior. Level ofenergy-conservation products price has a negative effect and the others have positiveones. Perceiving economical saving of behavior results has lower significance aninfluence degree on behavior intention. While perceiving spiritual satisfaction has alarger effect on behavior intention.
Secondly, multi-agent simulation model establishment and results analysis ofurban residents’ energy conservation behavior. As the basis of theory and data fromempirical analysis, this paper establishes the multi-agent simulation model to revealcomplicated internal mechanism of urban residents’ energy conservation behaviorusing complex adaptive theory. Artificial neural network makes the resident agentintelligent and verifies the complicated internal mechanism of relationship of theexternal energy conservation policy and behavior emerging. By means of differentparameters setting, this paper simulates the dynamic variation of urban residents’behavior choice and intention in short term and long term to reflect the effects ofbehavior choice and perceived behavior results on the intention.
The results show that in the absence of external policy role, urban residents’energy conservation behavior does not match the behavior intention, which is mostobvious to quality-threshold behavior and interpersonal-facilitation. Different policies have difference intensity and direction effects on the process of intention transformingto behavior. Social norms of energy conservation and population of guiding energyconservation policy can promote the process of intention transforming tohabit-adjustment, quality-threshold and interpersonal-facilitation behavior.Popularization of economic energy conservation policy and the price level of energycan promote the process of intention transforming to habit-adjustment,quality-threshold and efficiency-investment behavior. The execution and validity ofenergy policy and information intervention can promote the process of intentiontransforming to the four behavior. Factors of energy-conservation products canpromote the process of intention transforming to efficiency-investment behavior whilethe price of energy conservation production has the negative effects on the contrary. Inthe long run, social norms of energy conservation, popularization of guiding energyconservation policy, execution and validity of energy policy can strengthen theintention and promote the implementation of energy conservation behavior.
Finally, based on the results of empirical analysis and simulation research, thispaper designs the policy system of guiding urban residents’ energy conservationbehavior from the aspects of technical, economic and information measures. And thecorresponding policy suggestions are proposed.
居民的节能行为选择是一个复杂的过程，本文依据提出问题—理论研究—实证研究的技术路线，以我国东部地区城市居民节能行为为研究对象，综合运用行为学和心理学等基本理论与方法，以经典的行为理论模型为基础，构建了城市居民节能行为影响因素理论模型，通过问卷调查样本数据，对东部地区城市居民节能行为的内在和外在影响机理进行了深入系统的研究，理清了城市居民节能行为的内在机理，进而借鉴复杂适应性系统建模思想，建立基于Netlogo平台的城市居民节能行为仿真系统，分析了城市居民在外部环境变化情形下的节能行为意愿和节能行为的动态变化，最后，基于实证和仿真研究结果设计了城市居民节能行为引导政策体系，有针对性地提出了政策建议。具体研究内容主要包括以下三个方面：
第一，城市居民节能行为影响因素模型构建与实证分析。在文献研究的基础上，结合基于扎根理论质性研究的思想与方法对居民开展的深度访谈资料和专家咨询资料，筛选出了四大影响因素范畴：社会人口学因素、个体心理特征因素、情境因素、行为结果因素，建立了城市居民节能行为影响因素理论模型，对变量因素间的关系路径进行了描述，并提出了研究假设。基于本文开发的城市居民节能行为测量量表，以在我国东部城市开展的预调研和正式调研获取的大样本数据为基础，运用多元统计分析方法和结构方程模型对城市居民节能行为影响因素理论模型进行了实证检验。
结果表明居民的节能行为受到上述四类因素的共同影响：人口统计特征因素和家庭特征因素直接作用于居民的节能行为；个体心理特征因素包括价值观、能源问题敏感度、节能知识、主观规范、自我效能感、行为控制感知、环境心理控制源和舒适偏好8个变量，主要通过节能行为意愿这一中介变量间接地作用于节能行为，除环境心理控制源中的外控型心理控制源和舒适偏好对节能行为意愿的影响为负向外，其余因素均对节能行为意愿起到促进作用；情境因素包括节能社会规范、政策普及程度、政策执行力度和效度、信息干预力度和效度、价格因素和节能产品属性6个变量，通过调节节能行为意愿到节能行为的转化过程从而作用于节能行为；节能行为结果中的经济节省和精神满足两个维度对节能行为意愿均有显著影响，但经济节省的显著性和影响程度较低。
第二，城市居民节能行为多主体仿真模型构建与结果分析。根据城市居民节能行为影响因素实证分析提供的理论和数据基础，基于复杂适应性理论的思想和方法，借助Netlogo仿真平台，建立了城市居民节能行为多主体仿真系统，通过植入人工神经网络实现了居民Agent的智能性，验证了外部节能政策与城市居民节能行为涌现的内在关系的复杂机理，通过设定不同的参数，仿真了不同政策情形下居民节能行为选择和节能行为意愿的短期与长期的动态变化，全面反映了现实情境中个体长期节能行为选择和行为结果对意愿的作用。
结果表明，在无外部政策作用的情况下，居民的节能行为意愿和节能行为呈现出明显的不匹配状况，其中，节能行为意愿与品质阈限节能行为的匹配程度最差，其次为节能行为意愿与人际促进节能行为的匹配程度。不同类型的政策对节能行为意愿向不同节能行为转化的作用强度和方向有所不同，节能社会规范和政策普及程度因素中的引导型政策普及程度对节能行为意愿到习惯调整、能效投资和人际促进节能行为转化的促进作用显著，政策普及程度因素中的经济型政策普及程度以及能源价格水平对节能行为意愿到习惯调整、品质阈限、能效投资节能行为转化的促进作用显著，政策执行力度和效度、信息干预力度和效度对节能行为意愿到习惯调整、品质阈限、能效投资和人际促进节能行为转化的促进作用显著，节能产品属性对节能行为意愿到能效投资节能行为转化的促进作用显著，节能产品价格水平对节能行为意愿到能效投资节能行为的转化抑制作用显著。长期来看，通过调整节能社会规范、引导型政策普及程度、政策执行和信息干预力度和效度能够强化节能行为意愿，从而长期稳定地促进节能行为的实施。
最后，综合本文实证分析和仿真研究的结果，从技术措施、经济措施和信息措施三种不同政策类型角度设计了城市居民节能引导政策体系，提出了引导我国城市居民节能行为的政策建议。
As the country that has the biggest population in the world, China’s residents’energy consumption is of obvious significance on economic and social development.With rapid urbanization process and residents’living standard improving continuously,demand of living energy will keep increasing. Promoting urban residents that are themajor group of living energy consumption to implement energy conservation behaviorare the key to build saving-and low-carbon society. Especially, the level of economicdevelopment of eastern region’ is high; however, the level of self-sufficiency ofenergy is low. Therefore, guiding urban residents of eastern region to implementenergy conservation behavior is of more practical significance.
Energy-conservation behavior choice of residents is a complex process. Thispaper’s technical route is from raising questions to theoretical research and empiricalresearch taking urban resident’s energy-conservation behavior as the research object.Based on the classical theory of behavior models, this paper establishes the theorymodel of the influencing factors on urban residents’ energy conservation behaviorusing the theory and methods of behavioristic and psychology. Using the data from aquestionnaire survey among urban residents of eastern region, the internal andexternal influencing factors are analyzed deeply and systematically. The internalmechanism of urban residents’ energy conservation behavior is clarified. And thenbased on the complex adaptive system theory, the simulation system is establishedusing the simulation platform Netlogo. On the situation of the external policyenvironment change, the behavioral intention and the behavioral choice of energyconservation of urban residents is dynamically analyzed. Finally, after the empiricalanalysis and simulation research, the policy system of guiding urban residents’ energyconservation behavior is designed and the policy suggestions are proposed. The threespecific research contents are as follows:
Firstly, the theory model of the influencing factors of urban residents’ energyconservation behavior establishment and empirical analysis. On the basis of literatureresearch, this paper carries out in-depth interviews on urban residents and consultationwith experts, uses qualitative research method of grounded theory. Then theinfluencing factors are filtered into four concepts: social demographic factors,individual’s psychology characteristics factors, situational factors and behavioralresults factors. And the theory model of the influencing factors of urban residents’energy conservation behavior is built, the relationship of these factors is described and the research hypotheses are proposed. Using our measurement scale，the preliminarysurvey and the formal one is carried out among the urban residents of eastern region.On the basis of the survey data, the model of influencing factors of energyconservation behavior is tested using the method of multivariate statistical analysisand structural equation model.
The results show that urban residents’ energy conservation behaviors aresynthetically affected by those four factors. Social demographic variables have directeffects on them. Individual’s psychology characteristics factors contain of eightvariables---values, sensitiveness of energy problems, knowledge of energyconservation behavior, perceived self-efficacy, perceived behavior control andpreferences of comfort affect the behavior mainly through the mediatingvariabls---behavior intention. External environmental locus of control and preferenceof comfort have negative effects and the others have positive ones. Situational factorshave six variables---social norms of energy conservation, popularization ofenergy-conservation policy, execution and validity of policy, execution and validity ofinformation intervention, level of price and factors of energy-conservation products,which can regulate the process of intention transforming into behavior. Level ofenergy-conservation products price has a negative effect and the others have positiveones. Perceiving economical saving of behavior results has lower significance aninfluence degree on behavior intention. While perceiving spiritual satisfaction has alarger effect on behavior intention.
Secondly, multi-agent simulation model establishment and results analysis ofurban residents’ energy conservation behavior. As the basis of theory and data fromempirical analysis, this paper establishes the multi-agent simulation model to revealcomplicated internal mechanism of urban residents’ energy conservation behaviorusing complex adaptive theory. Artificial neural network makes the resident agentintelligent and verifies the complicated internal mechanism of relationship of theexternal energy conservation policy and behavior emerging. By means of differentparameters setting, this paper simulates the dynamic variation of urban residents’behavior choice and intention in short term and long term to reflect the effects ofbehavior choice and perceived behavior results on the intention.
The results show that in the absence of external policy role, urban residents’energy conservation behavior does not match the behavior intention, which is mostobvious to quality-threshold behavior and interpersonal-facilitation. Different policies have difference intensity and direction effects on the process of intention transformingto behavior. Social norms of energy conservation and population of guiding energyconservation policy can promote the process of intention transforming tohabit-adjustment, quality-threshold and interpersonal-facilitation behavior.Popularization of economic energy conservation policy and the price level of energycan promote the process of intention transforming to habit-adjustment,quality-threshold and efficiency-investment behavior. The execution and validity ofenergy policy and information intervention can promote the process of intentiontransforming to the four behavior. Factors of energy-conservation products canpromote the process of intention transforming to efficiency-investment behavior whilethe price of energy conservation production has the negative effects on the contrary. Inthe long run, social norms of energy conservation, popularization of guiding energyconservation policy, execution and validity of energy policy can strengthen theintention and promote the implementation of energy conservation behavior.
Finally, based on the results of empirical analysis and simulation research, thispaper designs the policy system of guiding urban residents’ energy conservationbehavior from the aspects of technical, economic and information measures. And thecorresponding policy suggestions are proposed.
引文
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