西南山区城镇建设地质灾害风险管理控制方法研究
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摘要
我国西南山区地质条件复杂，地质环境脆弱，具有地质灾害种类多、面积广、规模大、成灾快、频率高、时间长的特点。随着西部大开发的不断深入，土地资源的开发和建设被迅速推进，自然与人为的双重影响加剧了地质灾害的发生。频发的地质灾害不仅给山区城镇居民带来了严重的经济损失和人员伤亡，更成为山区城镇经济开发和可持续发展中一个非常突出的问题。
针对西南山区城镇饱受地质灾害的严重威胁，城镇建设深受地质环境条件和地质灾害制约的特点，本文通过充分收集前人已有资料，结合遥感、补充工程地质测绘和工程地质勘查、现场详细地质调查，以GIS为分析平台，采用数值模拟、物理模拟等综合手段，针对西南山区城镇地质灾害危险性评价、易损性评价及风险管理控制方法等方面进行较深入系统地研究，获得如下创新性研究成果：
1.通过对我国2000年至2010年因地质灾害而死亡的人数以及每年总人口数据进行分析，针对我国地质灾害可接受风险水平的确定分析展开研究，提出了我国地质灾害可接受风险标准的上限值（可容忍风险线的风险值）为1E-06/a，可接受风险标准的下限值（可接受风险线的风险值）为1E-07/a，确定了我国地质灾害可接受风险水平FN曲线。
2.通过收集及阅读大量国内外有关地震诱发地质灾害的文献资料，结合实地野外调查，紧紧把握汶川地震这一极端事件，展开对地震诱发地质灾害发育规律、分布特征及成因机理分析的研究，选取了两大类共11个评价因子，包括：工程地质岩组、地形坡度、地质构造、坡型、相对高差、河流水系、剖面形态、平面形态、断层性质、断层距离和斜坡方向（背坡、面坡），创新性地建立了一套针对地震条件下地质灾害易发性评价指标体系。
3.较系统地阐述了西南山区地质灾害危险性评价、易损性评价以及地质灾害管理控制目标、类别、基本原则、思路和实施内容；形成了一套包括：确立评价与管理控制目标→地质灾害危险源识别和调查→建立地质灾害风险信息数据库→地质灾害风险评价→地质灾害风险管理和控制措施研究为一体的西南山区地质灾害风险管理控制方法。
4.针对西南山区城镇建设地质灾害风险的特点，提出和构建了不同评价尺度（中等比例尺（1:200000～1:50000）、大比例尺（1:50000～1:5000）以及详细比例尺（>1:5000））的地质灾害风险评价指标体系和技术方法。
5.在充分考虑了不同的地质灾害触发因素（暴雨条件下以及地震条件）、灾害历史因素以及基本环境因素的基础上，提出了一套较为完善的针对不同地质灾害类型（崩塌、滑坡、不稳定斜坡和泥石流）的地质灾害危险性（易发性）评价指标体系。
6.建立了一套针对单体地质灾害危险性评价的模型和方法。即首先利用蒙特卡洛法对地质灾害发生概率进行分析计算，研究其发生的可能性，采用经验公式法以及数值模拟法对地质灾害发生后所影响的范围进行预测分析的评价方法流程。
7.在广泛收集相关资料的基础上，针对西南山区高速远程滑坡运移距离展开分析研究，在对西南山区高速远程滑坡-碎屑流体积以及运移距离数据进行统计分析的基础上，得出了西南山区高速远程滑坡-碎屑流运移距离预测的线性方程：V=0.2003L+450.82。
8.完善了西南山区城镇建设地质灾害风险管理控制方法及基本框架，从西南山区城镇的实际情况出发，结合目前所采用的地质灾害风险管理控制方法措施，提出在地质灾害风险管理控制工作中应遵循地质灾害日常防御→地质灾害灾前准备→地质灾害灾中应急响应→地质灾害灾后重建四个循序渐进的流程，阐述了每个阶段中所应采取的措施及工作内容。
9.建立了针对地质灾害发生概率的降雨预警基准的概率统计分析方法，即通过收集研究区降雨诱发地质灾害发生（地质灾害发生前3天降水量、当日降水量）及未发生的降雨资料，根据这些降雨数据在xy坐标图上的分布规律，在确定地质灾害发生的下包络线以及上包络线的基础上，将上下包络线之间的中间区域，以平行线的方式划分各个概率的警戒基准线。
10.结合丹巴县和汶川县两个工作区，进行了地质灾害风险管理控制示范应用，结果表明，论文提出的理论思想以及技术方法有较强的实用性，可为西南山区地质灾害危险性评价及风险管理控制提供参考。
The geological condition in southwest mountains is very complex,on the otherhand, The urban population and economy increase rapidly,the scale of urban expandunceasingly, the geohazard happens frequently.The threaten from geohazard bringsthe serious economic loss and the personnel casualty to the dwellers in mountainsarea,and becomes a big problem for the economic development and sustainabledevelopment.
The geological condition in southwest mountains is very complex,on the otherhand, The urban population and economy increase rapidly,the scale of urban expandunceasingly, the geohazard happens frequently.The threaten from geohazard bringsthe serious economic loss and the personnel casualty to the dwellers in mountainsarea,and becomes a big problem for the economic development and sustainabledevelopment. In virtue of southwest mountains suffer serious threatens from thegeohazard and the geological environment condition and the geological disasterrestrict the urban development deeply, this article carries on the study on the methodand process of geohazard risk control, by means of research of geohazardrecognition, geohazard hazard evaluation,risk evaluation,risk management and riskcontrol,at the last,the author set up a systematic method of of geohazard risk controland geohazard hazard evaluation. In this paper, reasonable discussions have beendug into this research area, and major creative outcome has been obtained asfollows:
1. Through analysis the relation between the number of deaths because ofgeohazard and the total population each year from2001to2008,through the study onthe acceptable risk level of china had been carried on, and it is the first time to determine the upper and lower limit of acceptabal risk for geohazard inChina.Finally,the FN curve for the acceptable risk level in China had been plotted.
2. By collecting and reading a lot of literatures of earthquake induced geohazardwith fieldwork,a thoroughly study had been carried on the mechanism,distributionand rule of seismic geohazard induced by WenChuan earthquake,a total of11factorsin two categories had been selected,and the factors consisted of engineeringgeological rock groups, terrain slope, geologic structure, slope type,relative altitude,river system, profile type, plane type,fault type,the distance from fault,and slopedirection.the geohazard susceptibility index system under earthquake condition hadbeen creative built up.
3. The basic framework of geohazards assessment and risk management hadbeen improved,in addition,the objectives, types, basic principles, ideas andimplementation of content in geohazard assessment, vulnerability assessment andmanagement had been described in this paper, at the last,the author set up asystematic method of geohazard risk manage and geohazard evaluation, theprocessing include: definite goal of evaluation and control→geohazard recognition→Establishment of geohazard risk information database→geohazard hazard evaluation→geohazard risk evaluation→geohazard risk assessment→research of geohazardrisk management.
4. The arrangement, precision and applicability of risk control had been putforward,on the basis of feature of geohazard risk in southwest mountains, thearrangement includes four scale: regional scale(<1:200000), intermediatescale(1:200000～1:50000), local scale(1:50000～1:5000) and site specificscale(>1:5000).
5. This evaluating indicator system fully considered history factors,basicenvironmental factosr and the different geohazard triggering factor,such as rainfalland earthquake,a more comprehensive hazard evaluation index system had been builtup for different types of geohazards..
6. The models and methods for hazard assessment had been established for thesingle geohazard, the Monte Carlo method had been used for analying theprobability of occurrence of geohard and calculating the likelihood of singlegeohazard.The empirical formula and the numerical simulate method had been usedfor forecasting the affected area after geohazard occurred.
7. On the basis of collection of relevant information, the static method had beenused to analyze the relation between volume and run out distance of rapid landslide, On the basis of static method,the relation between volume and run out distance ofrapid landslide had been analyzed, the author built up the linear equation as follow:V=0.2026L+407.91.
8. The basic framework of geohazards assessment and risk management hadbeen improved, by considering the actual conditions in Southwest mountain,andconsolidated currently used methods and measures of geohazard risk managementand control A realistic solution for the geohazard risk management has beenprovided as following procedure: geohazard prevention→Pre-geohazardpreparedness→emergency response→reconstruction,in additional, the content ofeach stage had been detailed described.
9. The probability statistical analysis method for the early warning rainfall thatinduced the geohazard had been built up,the first step is to collect rainfall data thatinduced and did not induce the geohazard,the data consisted of the three daysprecipitation before geohazard and The same day precipitation,then according to thedistribution of these data on xy axis, by using the parallel lines to draw the warningbaseline,on the basis of specifying the next envelope curve and up envelope curve.
10. By use of these methods above,DanBa county and WenChuan county hadbeen selected as demonstration town to carry on the research of geohazard riskmanagement, The results of case study show that the research methodology from thepaper will be useful to push forward the development of geohazard assessment andrisk management.
针对西南山区城镇饱受地质灾害的严重威胁，城镇建设深受地质环境条件和地质灾害制约的特点，本文通过充分收集前人已有资料，结合遥感、补充工程地质测绘和工程地质勘查、现场详细地质调查，以GIS为分析平台，采用数值模拟、物理模拟等综合手段，针对西南山区城镇地质灾害危险性评价、易损性评价及风险管理控制方法等方面进行较深入系统地研究，获得如下创新性研究成果：
1.通过对我国2000年至2010年因地质灾害而死亡的人数以及每年总人口数据进行分析，针对我国地质灾害可接受风险水平的确定分析展开研究，提出了我国地质灾害可接受风险标准的上限值（可容忍风险线的风险值）为1E-06/a，可接受风险标准的下限值（可接受风险线的风险值）为1E-07/a，确定了我国地质灾害可接受风险水平FN曲线。
2.通过收集及阅读大量国内外有关地震诱发地质灾害的文献资料，结合实地野外调查，紧紧把握汶川地震这一极端事件，展开对地震诱发地质灾害发育规律、分布特征及成因机理分析的研究，选取了两大类共11个评价因子，包括：工程地质岩组、地形坡度、地质构造、坡型、相对高差、河流水系、剖面形态、平面形态、断层性质、断层距离和斜坡方向（背坡、面坡），创新性地建立了一套针对地震条件下地质灾害易发性评价指标体系。
3.较系统地阐述了西南山区地质灾害危险性评价、易损性评价以及地质灾害管理控制目标、类别、基本原则、思路和实施内容；形成了一套包括：确立评价与管理控制目标→地质灾害危险源识别和调查→建立地质灾害风险信息数据库→地质灾害风险评价→地质灾害风险管理和控制措施研究为一体的西南山区地质灾害风险管理控制方法。
4.针对西南山区城镇建设地质灾害风险的特点，提出和构建了不同评价尺度（中等比例尺（1:200000～1:50000）、大比例尺（1:50000～1:5000）以及详细比例尺（>1:5000））的地质灾害风险评价指标体系和技术方法。
5.在充分考虑了不同的地质灾害触发因素（暴雨条件下以及地震条件）、灾害历史因素以及基本环境因素的基础上，提出了一套较为完善的针对不同地质灾害类型（崩塌、滑坡、不稳定斜坡和泥石流）的地质灾害危险性（易发性）评价指标体系。
6.建立了一套针对单体地质灾害危险性评价的模型和方法。即首先利用蒙特卡洛法对地质灾害发生概率进行分析计算，研究其发生的可能性，采用经验公式法以及数值模拟法对地质灾害发生后所影响的范围进行预测分析的评价方法流程。
7.在广泛收集相关资料的基础上，针对西南山区高速远程滑坡运移距离展开分析研究，在对西南山区高速远程滑坡-碎屑流体积以及运移距离数据进行统计分析的基础上，得出了西南山区高速远程滑坡-碎屑流运移距离预测的线性方程：V=0.2003L+450.82。
8.完善了西南山区城镇建设地质灾害风险管理控制方法及基本框架，从西南山区城镇的实际情况出发，结合目前所采用的地质灾害风险管理控制方法措施，提出在地质灾害风险管理控制工作中应遵循地质灾害日常防御→地质灾害灾前准备→地质灾害灾中应急响应→地质灾害灾后重建四个循序渐进的流程，阐述了每个阶段中所应采取的措施及工作内容。
9.建立了针对地质灾害发生概率的降雨预警基准的概率统计分析方法，即通过收集研究区降雨诱发地质灾害发生（地质灾害发生前3天降水量、当日降水量）及未发生的降雨资料，根据这些降雨数据在xy坐标图上的分布规律，在确定地质灾害发生的下包络线以及上包络线的基础上，将上下包络线之间的中间区域，以平行线的方式划分各个概率的警戒基准线。
10.结合丹巴县和汶川县两个工作区，进行了地质灾害风险管理控制示范应用，结果表明，论文提出的理论思想以及技术方法有较强的实用性，可为西南山区地质灾害危险性评价及风险管理控制提供参考。
The geological condition in southwest mountains is very complex,on the otherhand, The urban population and economy increase rapidly,the scale of urban expandunceasingly, the geohazard happens frequently.The threaten from geohazard bringsthe serious economic loss and the personnel casualty to the dwellers in mountainsarea,and becomes a big problem for the economic development and sustainabledevelopment.
The geological condition in southwest mountains is very complex,on the otherhand, The urban population and economy increase rapidly,the scale of urban expandunceasingly, the geohazard happens frequently.The threaten from geohazard bringsthe serious economic loss and the personnel casualty to the dwellers in mountainsarea,and becomes a big problem for the economic development and sustainabledevelopment. In virtue of southwest mountains suffer serious threatens from thegeohazard and the geological environment condition and the geological disasterrestrict the urban development deeply, this article carries on the study on the methodand process of geohazard risk control, by means of research of geohazardrecognition, geohazard hazard evaluation,risk evaluation,risk management and riskcontrol,at the last,the author set up a systematic method of of geohazard risk controland geohazard hazard evaluation. In this paper, reasonable discussions have beendug into this research area, and major creative outcome has been obtained asfollows:
1. Through analysis the relation between the number of deaths because ofgeohazard and the total population each year from2001to2008,through the study onthe acceptable risk level of china had been carried on, and it is the first time to determine the upper and lower limit of acceptabal risk for geohazard inChina.Finally,the FN curve for the acceptable risk level in China had been plotted.
2. By collecting and reading a lot of literatures of earthquake induced geohazardwith fieldwork,a thoroughly study had been carried on the mechanism,distributionand rule of seismic geohazard induced by WenChuan earthquake,a total of11factorsin two categories had been selected,and the factors consisted of engineeringgeological rock groups, terrain slope, geologic structure, slope type,relative altitude,river system, profile type, plane type,fault type,the distance from fault,and slopedirection.the geohazard susceptibility index system under earthquake condition hadbeen creative built up.
3. The basic framework of geohazards assessment and risk management hadbeen improved,in addition,the objectives, types, basic principles, ideas andimplementation of content in geohazard assessment, vulnerability assessment andmanagement had been described in this paper, at the last,the author set up asystematic method of geohazard risk manage and geohazard evaluation, theprocessing include: definite goal of evaluation and control→geohazard recognition→Establishment of geohazard risk information database→geohazard hazard evaluation→geohazard risk evaluation→geohazard risk assessment→research of geohazardrisk management.
4. The arrangement, precision and applicability of risk control had been putforward,on the basis of feature of geohazard risk in southwest mountains, thearrangement includes four scale: regional scale(<1:200000), intermediatescale(1:200000～1:50000), local scale(1:50000～1:5000) and site specificscale(>1:5000).
5. This evaluating indicator system fully considered history factors,basicenvironmental factosr and the different geohazard triggering factor,such as rainfalland earthquake,a more comprehensive hazard evaluation index system had been builtup for different types of geohazards..
6. The models and methods for hazard assessment had been established for thesingle geohazard, the Monte Carlo method had been used for analying theprobability of occurrence of geohard and calculating the likelihood of singlegeohazard.The empirical formula and the numerical simulate method had been usedfor forecasting the affected area after geohazard occurred.
7. On the basis of collection of relevant information, the static method had beenused to analyze the relation between volume and run out distance of rapid landslide, On the basis of static method,the relation between volume and run out distance ofrapid landslide had been analyzed, the author built up the linear equation as follow:V=0.2026L+407.91.
8. The basic framework of geohazards assessment and risk management hadbeen improved, by considering the actual conditions in Southwest mountain,andconsolidated currently used methods and measures of geohazard risk managementand control A realistic solution for the geohazard risk management has beenprovided as following procedure: geohazard prevention→Pre-geohazardpreparedness→emergency response→reconstruction,in additional, the content ofeach stage had been detailed described.
9. The probability statistical analysis method for the early warning rainfall thatinduced the geohazard had been built up,the first step is to collect rainfall data thatinduced and did not induce the geohazard,the data consisted of the three daysprecipitation before geohazard and The same day precipitation,then according to thedistribution of these data on xy axis, by using the parallel lines to draw the warningbaseline,on the basis of specifying the next envelope curve and up envelope curve.
10. By use of these methods above,DanBa county and WenChuan county hadbeen selected as demonstration town to carry on the research of geohazard riskmanagement, The results of case study show that the research methodology from thepaper will be useful to push forward the development of geohazard assessment andrisk management.
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