基于GIS和HydraN的复杂河网地区洪水风险管理及水资源联合调度应用研究
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摘要
本文以复杂河网平原地区作为研究区域和对象,选取西洞庭湖典型区域——常德冲柳复杂河网地区进行研究。复杂河网地区因其特殊的地理气候特征和复杂的江湖河网形态而易受洪水威胁和损失,研究该类地区的洪水风险和优化调度具有非常重要的科学价值和现实意义。本文综述了国内外学者在该领域取得的成就和进展,分析了目前方法和模型的瓶颈所在,并在此基础上引入国内外多个模型进行多方位的研究和分析。
本文的研究工作和研究内容主要包括以下的内容：(1)考虑到复杂河网的特点,在降雨、地形等常规指标不能很好地反映该区域风险等级的前提下,本文引入土壤结构、类型和河网结构、特性等多项指标对常德冲柳复杂河网地区进行分级区域洪水灾害风险评价,并在GIS环境下对整个地区进行风险区划。研究发现利用该法取得了比传统分析方法更精确更全面的实验结果。结果同时表明,由于复杂河网本身特点,河网特性和下垫面指标对洪灾风险的影响比其他地区更大,而降雨、地形等常规指标虽对洪灾及损失起决定性作用,但在小区域的风险区划上不能得到理想结果。(2)针对该地区河网的复杂性和河流关系的不确定性,考虑到复杂河网地区河网要素的地理特征及空间拓扑特性,本文引入基于地理信息系统(GIS)的网络分析技术,对区域河网进行网络模型化,并在GIS网络分析模块下完成河流追踪和突发事件应急响应模拟研究。模拟的结果反映出GIS网络分析在该类地区应用的灵活性和准确性,能够满足突发性事故的迅速应急响应要求。如何将水质模型与GIS网络分析技术更加紧密结合并为决策者提供有效指导将是今后该领域发展的一个重点。(3)针对传统调度方法单一、低效,无法在防灾的同时最大限度地节约和利用能源和水资源的现状,本文引入HydraN软件对冲柳复杂河网地区进行产流、汇流、稳态和非稳态多项河流模拟,并在此基础上提出优化调度方案。HydraN软件因其内嵌的先进水文模型和水动力模型以及准确的泵、闸、涵、水库等多种水工构筑物模拟功能而在冲柳复杂河网地区实现了很好的应用。通过与历史洪水统计资料进行对比发现,进行校正后的HydraN软件能够比较精确地反应河网中各条河流的即时水位,而水工构筑物的分别模拟和集成GIS的可视化界面,可以动态演示实施某种调度规则之后洪水发展情况,并支持辅助优化决策。该调度模式的应用比传统调度更加准确、灵活、高效,而兼容其他模型和经验公式的自定义调度方式,则更能取长补短,将节能、引水、减灾的最优调度发挥到极致。(4)针对研究区域受灾频率高、承载时间长,遭灾损失大的状况,本文从防灾减灾的目的出发,通过多种模型和技术手段实现在特大洪水条件下的灾害时间和空间统一模拟,取得了较好的结果。研究在空间上采用较高精度遥感影像运用ERDAS IMAGINE的Virtual GIS模块进行洪水淹没动态模拟,并得到时间-水深曲线的空间分布；在时间上通过结合Damage Calculator和1:50000DEM,绘制得到水深-灾害曲线,将二者结合之后得到整个冲柳地区及其局部的时间-水深-灾害空间分布曲线。在这些时空统一的灾害曲线基础上,本文对1998年冲柳特大洪水进行了模拟淹没及调度方案优化,运用优化后的方案不论从灾害上限的承灾时间、重点堤垸受灾时间、还是淹没总体损失都比1998年当时要小很多。
本文针对复杂河网地区的地理空间、气候、历史以及社会经济特点等众多特点,运用系统的分析方法,采用多种先进的模拟软件和模型,对西洞庭湖常德冲柳复杂河网地区进行了洪水风险、应急响应与优化调度等多方面研究。研究认为,常德冲柳地区洪水灾害风险总体偏高,灾害应急响应速度较慢,宏观调度手段单一,水资源与能源的节约利用及各湖泊、堤垸的效能发挥一般,在科学决策、适时调度上有较大提升空间。论文的方法和结论对于该类地区的洪灾风险评价以及联合配水优化调度将具有一定的科学价值和借鉴意义。
The complex river networks area located at Chongliu in Changde were taken as object of study as a typical type in this articel. Due to the special characteristics of geographic climate and complicated morphology of river network, the complex river networks areas are threatened by flood and suffer loses much more than other types of areas, and research on risk of flood and optimal dispatch in such area exhibits quite important scientific value and practical signification., This dissertation first summarized achievements and progress of reseachers in this field, and then analyzed the bottleneck problems of available methods and model, and as which a basis of research, introduced several modles domestic and overseas onto multiangular analysis.
The main works and novel results of this dissertation include the following elements.(1) Aiming at the characteristics of complex river networks areas, many indexes such as soil structure and types、river network stucture and properties were used to make flood risk analysis and zonation in GIS, because the ordinary indexes like rainfall and terrain can't describe flood risk well in Chongliu Area. The results of study shows that the indexes of river networks propertie and underlying surface have more important effects on complex river networks areas rather than other areas, and although the rainfall and terrain indexes play a key role in flood, they can't help getting ideal results.(2)Aiming at the complexity and uncertainty of river networks, and considering the geographic characteristics and spatail topology of complex river networks areas, this research used network analysis based on GIS, by which the study simulated river tracing and emergent event response on the basis of nework modeling. The simulated results show that the network analysis based on GIS is a more flexible and accurate way to solve sudden emergency than traditional ways, and it can meet the demand of rapid decision. The results also proposed that the intergration of water quality model and network analysis based on GIS will benefit more to decision makers and play a more important role in this field.(3)According to the lack of varieity and efficiency of traditional methods, by which can't economy utilize energe and water resources well at the same time of flood defend, this research use HydraN program to simulated the rainfall-runoff situation based on steady model and unsteady model in Chongliu Area, an then proposed optimal dispatch schemes. HydraN program had been applied well in Chongliu complex river networks area, because of the precise simulation of pumps、sluices、culverts and reserviors. By the comprison of simulation results and statistical data, it is obvious that HydraN program after adjustment can display stages of rivers in network exactly, besides, the function of water constructionsl works simulations can demonstrate flood progress dynamically under different dispatch schemes. The application of this dispatch model has the advantages of nicety、aility、efficiency, and the compatibility of HydraN program can help dispatch to be more complete and effective.(4)Aiming at the situation of study area——high flood frequency、long time last、huge disaster damage, this research based on disaster damage reducing, assisted by some models and technologies, simulated flood disaster damage in time and space under extraordinary flood conditions. This research used the Virtual GIS module of ERDAS IMAGINE to simulate time-depth curves distribution in space; and used Damage Calculator combined1:50000DEM to draw depth-damage curve in time, then get the time-depth-damage spatial distribution of Chongliu Area by integrated the upper two. This research simulated flood submerged in1998, when there was a extraordinary flood in Chongliu Area, based on time-depth-damage curves. Compared with the damage of optimal dispatch and the1998's, it is obvious that the optimal dispatch based on time-space damage curve can postpone the disaster time、shorten the whole disaster time and lessen disaster damage.
According to the special characteristics of geographic、clamite、history and social economy, this dissertationusing used systemic analysis method, and assited by some advanced models and methods to evaluate the flood risk、design emergency response system、 propose optimal dispatch sche ules. The results of this research shows that, the flood risk of Chongliu Area is high as a whole, the damage emergency response is slow, the macro flood coordination is simple and absence of variety, the usage of lakes and embankments is not efficient and the energy and water resources is not utilized well in Chongliu Area, and there is a huge space to promote the level of flood management. The methods and results of this dissertation will have some scientific value and practice significant in complex river network areas flood assement and optimal combined dispatch.
本文的研究工作和研究内容主要包括以下的内容：(1)考虑到复杂河网的特点,在降雨、地形等常规指标不能很好地反映该区域风险等级的前提下,本文引入土壤结构、类型和河网结构、特性等多项指标对常德冲柳复杂河网地区进行分级区域洪水灾害风险评价,并在GIS环境下对整个地区进行风险区划。研究发现利用该法取得了比传统分析方法更精确更全面的实验结果。结果同时表明,由于复杂河网本身特点,河网特性和下垫面指标对洪灾风险的影响比其他地区更大,而降雨、地形等常规指标虽对洪灾及损失起决定性作用,但在小区域的风险区划上不能得到理想结果。(2)针对该地区河网的复杂性和河流关系的不确定性,考虑到复杂河网地区河网要素的地理特征及空间拓扑特性,本文引入基于地理信息系统(GIS)的网络分析技术,对区域河网进行网络模型化,并在GIS网络分析模块下完成河流追踪和突发事件应急响应模拟研究。模拟的结果反映出GIS网络分析在该类地区应用的灵活性和准确性,能够满足突发性事故的迅速应急响应要求。如何将水质模型与GIS网络分析技术更加紧密结合并为决策者提供有效指导将是今后该领域发展的一个重点。(3)针对传统调度方法单一、低效,无法在防灾的同时最大限度地节约和利用能源和水资源的现状,本文引入HydraN软件对冲柳复杂河网地区进行产流、汇流、稳态和非稳态多项河流模拟,并在此基础上提出优化调度方案。HydraN软件因其内嵌的先进水文模型和水动力模型以及准确的泵、闸、涵、水库等多种水工构筑物模拟功能而在冲柳复杂河网地区实现了很好的应用。通过与历史洪水统计资料进行对比发现,进行校正后的HydraN软件能够比较精确地反应河网中各条河流的即时水位,而水工构筑物的分别模拟和集成GIS的可视化界面,可以动态演示实施某种调度规则之后洪水发展情况,并支持辅助优化决策。该调度模式的应用比传统调度更加准确、灵活、高效,而兼容其他模型和经验公式的自定义调度方式,则更能取长补短,将节能、引水、减灾的最优调度发挥到极致。(4)针对研究区域受灾频率高、承载时间长,遭灾损失大的状况,本文从防灾减灾的目的出发,通过多种模型和技术手段实现在特大洪水条件下的灾害时间和空间统一模拟,取得了较好的结果。研究在空间上采用较高精度遥感影像运用ERDAS IMAGINE的Virtual GIS模块进行洪水淹没动态模拟,并得到时间-水深曲线的空间分布；在时间上通过结合Damage Calculator和1:50000DEM,绘制得到水深-灾害曲线,将二者结合之后得到整个冲柳地区及其局部的时间-水深-灾害空间分布曲线。在这些时空统一的灾害曲线基础上,本文对1998年冲柳特大洪水进行了模拟淹没及调度方案优化,运用优化后的方案不论从灾害上限的承灾时间、重点堤垸受灾时间、还是淹没总体损失都比1998年当时要小很多。
本文针对复杂河网地区的地理空间、气候、历史以及社会经济特点等众多特点,运用系统的分析方法,采用多种先进的模拟软件和模型,对西洞庭湖常德冲柳复杂河网地区进行了洪水风险、应急响应与优化调度等多方面研究。研究认为,常德冲柳地区洪水灾害风险总体偏高,灾害应急响应速度较慢,宏观调度手段单一,水资源与能源的节约利用及各湖泊、堤垸的效能发挥一般,在科学决策、适时调度上有较大提升空间。论文的方法和结论对于该类地区的洪灾风险评价以及联合配水优化调度将具有一定的科学价值和借鉴意义。
The complex river networks area located at Chongliu in Changde were taken as object of study as a typical type in this articel. Due to the special characteristics of geographic climate and complicated morphology of river network, the complex river networks areas are threatened by flood and suffer loses much more than other types of areas, and research on risk of flood and optimal dispatch in such area exhibits quite important scientific value and practical signification., This dissertation first summarized achievements and progress of reseachers in this field, and then analyzed the bottleneck problems of available methods and model, and as which a basis of research, introduced several modles domestic and overseas onto multiangular analysis.
The main works and novel results of this dissertation include the following elements.(1) Aiming at the characteristics of complex river networks areas, many indexes such as soil structure and types、river network stucture and properties were used to make flood risk analysis and zonation in GIS, because the ordinary indexes like rainfall and terrain can't describe flood risk well in Chongliu Area. The results of study shows that the indexes of river networks propertie and underlying surface have more important effects on complex river networks areas rather than other areas, and although the rainfall and terrain indexes play a key role in flood, they can't help getting ideal results.(2)Aiming at the complexity and uncertainty of river networks, and considering the geographic characteristics and spatail topology of complex river networks areas, this research used network analysis based on GIS, by which the study simulated river tracing and emergent event response on the basis of nework modeling. The simulated results show that the network analysis based on GIS is a more flexible and accurate way to solve sudden emergency than traditional ways, and it can meet the demand of rapid decision. The results also proposed that the intergration of water quality model and network analysis based on GIS will benefit more to decision makers and play a more important role in this field.(3)According to the lack of varieity and efficiency of traditional methods, by which can't economy utilize energe and water resources well at the same time of flood defend, this research use HydraN program to simulated the rainfall-runoff situation based on steady model and unsteady model in Chongliu Area, an then proposed optimal dispatch schemes. HydraN program had been applied well in Chongliu complex river networks area, because of the precise simulation of pumps、sluices、culverts and reserviors. By the comprison of simulation results and statistical data, it is obvious that HydraN program after adjustment can display stages of rivers in network exactly, besides, the function of water constructionsl works simulations can demonstrate flood progress dynamically under different dispatch schemes. The application of this dispatch model has the advantages of nicety、aility、efficiency, and the compatibility of HydraN program can help dispatch to be more complete and effective.(4)Aiming at the situation of study area——high flood frequency、long time last、huge disaster damage, this research based on disaster damage reducing, assisted by some models and technologies, simulated flood disaster damage in time and space under extraordinary flood conditions. This research used the Virtual GIS module of ERDAS IMAGINE to simulate time-depth curves distribution in space; and used Damage Calculator combined1:50000DEM to draw depth-damage curve in time, then get the time-depth-damage spatial distribution of Chongliu Area by integrated the upper two. This research simulated flood submerged in1998, when there was a extraordinary flood in Chongliu Area, based on time-depth-damage curves. Compared with the damage of optimal dispatch and the1998's, it is obvious that the optimal dispatch based on time-space damage curve can postpone the disaster time、shorten the whole disaster time and lessen disaster damage.
According to the special characteristics of geographic、clamite、history and social economy, this dissertationusing used systemic analysis method, and assited by some advanced models and methods to evaluate the flood risk、design emergency response system、 propose optimal dispatch sche ules. The results of this research shows that, the flood risk of Chongliu Area is high as a whole, the damage emergency response is slow, the macro flood coordination is simple and absence of variety, the usage of lakes and embankments is not efficient and the energy and water resources is not utilized well in Chongliu Area, and there is a huge space to promote the level of flood management. The methods and results of this dissertation will have some scientific value and practice significant in complex river network areas flood assement and optimal combined dispatch.
引文
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