基于复杂适应系统的我国石油开发政策模拟与仿真
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摘要
2002年来,我国石油对外依存度不断攀升,而国内石油产量难以明显提高,石油行业发展面临诸多方面问题,为了促使石油行业快速发展,需要我国石油开发政策不断调整,以促进我国能源经济结构的快速转型。因此开展石油开发政策研究,对提高国内石油资源开发效率和石油生产供应能力,增强石油安全,具有重大战略意义。
本论文除了运用传统的宏观定性研究以外,还用了定量分析和系统的观点和方法来讨论石油开发政策体系。在研究复杂适应系统的理论并分析石油开发政策体系与复杂适应系统之间映射关系的基础上,探讨我国石油资源开发政策体系。建立基于复杂适应系统的石油开发系统模型,利用复杂适应系统模拟仿真平台Swarm,对石油开发政策下各类主体的行为以及政策作用效果进行模拟和仿真。研究石油开发政策中的各类主体及其行为规则,观察和研究不同石油开发政策体系下各类主体的微观行为和变化规律,分析我国政府石油开发政策的宏观调控是如何引起石油开发系统中主体的微观行为或规则的变化,探索个体的、局部的行为或规则是如何引起整体的、宏观的涌现现象,探索微观行为或规则与宏观现象或规律之间的纽带关系,为石油行业决策者制定合理的石油开发政策提供一定的参考依据。
通过分析不同的仿真实验结果发现,政府资源税的改变对生产商开发石油的积极性影响较大,进而影响到经销商和石化公司的经营;而增值税的改变对参与市场的经销商和石化公司影响较大,对生产商影响相对较小,说明经销商和石化公司的“抗竞争力”相对生产商较弱;适当增加石化公司主体数量,增大成品油供给量或储备量,对成品油价格过快上涨有一定调控作用,同时能看出石化公司的利润也比较微博。因此,政府如果能适当放松经销商和石化公司的“准入”条款,让更多的主体参与市场,并根据石油产业中不同业务性质实行区别对待的管制政策,是保证石油供需相对平衡,控制油价过快上涨的一种行之有效的方法,也是建立一个稳定、公平竞争和健康发展石油市场的调控政策之一。
本论文建立了一个研究石油开发政策体系从微观迈向宏观世界的桥梁,希望此研究能为今后进一步的定量分析提供一种比较新颖的方法和研究基础。
From 2002, China's dependence on import oil is rising, and it is difficult to significantly increase domestic oil production, so oil industry faces many problems. It is needed that China's oil development policies are constantly adjusted in order to promote the rapid development of oil industry and transformation of energy structure. Therefore, researching oil development policy is of great strategic significance to improving the efficiency of developing domestic oil, the capacity of oil production and supply and enhancing oil security.
The thesis also used a quantitative analysis and system point of view to discuss oil development policy system in addition to the traditional macro-qualitative method. China's oil development policy system is studied on the basis of researching the theory of complex adaptive system and analyzing the mapping relations between China's oil development policy system and complex adaptive system.Then a model of oil development is established using simulation platform Swarm of complex adaptive system to simulate the behavior and rules of different agents and the main effect of oil development policy. It are analyzed and studied how the government's macro-control changes the micro behavior and rules and according to observing the changes of the microscopic behavior under different types of oil development policy. It are explored how the government's macro-control causes the changes of agents' micro behavior or rules and how the individual micro-behavior or rules cause the whole macro emergence phenomena and the ties between the micro behavior or rules and the macro phenomena or the law. All these provide a frame of reference for the oil industry making reasonable oil development policy.
The analysis of different experimental results showed that the change of government resources tax have large influence on manufacturers’activation of developing oil, thereby affecting the business of dealers and petrochemical companies;And value-added tax have larger influence on manufacturers’activation of developing oil, thereby affecting the business of dealers and petrochemical companies;And tax impacts largely dealers and petrochemical companies in the market participation, and relatively smaller impact on manufacturers.This distribute to the dealers and petrochemical companies’"anti-competitive" weaker capacity compared with the manufacturers’.Increasing the number of petrochemical companies and oil supply or reserves is a certain regulatory role for oil prices rising too fast, and the micro profits of the petrochemical company can be seen at the same time. Therefore, it is an effective method to ensure relative balance of oil supply and demand, to control rapid rise in oil prices and one of regulation policies establish a stable, fair competition and healthy developing oil market that and the government appropriately relaxes "access" provisions for dealers and petrochemical companies, let them participate in the market more, and treats different business regulatory policies according to the nature of the different implementation in oil industry.
This thesis has established a bridge to study the system of oil development from the micro into the macro world. Wish this research provide a relatively new method and research base for further quantitative analysis in future.
本论文除了运用传统的宏观定性研究以外,还用了定量分析和系统的观点和方法来讨论石油开发政策体系。在研究复杂适应系统的理论并分析石油开发政策体系与复杂适应系统之间映射关系的基础上,探讨我国石油资源开发政策体系。建立基于复杂适应系统的石油开发系统模型,利用复杂适应系统模拟仿真平台Swarm,对石油开发政策下各类主体的行为以及政策作用效果进行模拟和仿真。研究石油开发政策中的各类主体及其行为规则,观察和研究不同石油开发政策体系下各类主体的微观行为和变化规律,分析我国政府石油开发政策的宏观调控是如何引起石油开发系统中主体的微观行为或规则的变化,探索个体的、局部的行为或规则是如何引起整体的、宏观的涌现现象,探索微观行为或规则与宏观现象或规律之间的纽带关系,为石油行业决策者制定合理的石油开发政策提供一定的参考依据。
通过分析不同的仿真实验结果发现,政府资源税的改变对生产商开发石油的积极性影响较大,进而影响到经销商和石化公司的经营;而增值税的改变对参与市场的经销商和石化公司影响较大,对生产商影响相对较小,说明经销商和石化公司的“抗竞争力”相对生产商较弱;适当增加石化公司主体数量,增大成品油供给量或储备量,对成品油价格过快上涨有一定调控作用,同时能看出石化公司的利润也比较微博。因此,政府如果能适当放松经销商和石化公司的“准入”条款,让更多的主体参与市场,并根据石油产业中不同业务性质实行区别对待的管制政策,是保证石油供需相对平衡,控制油价过快上涨的一种行之有效的方法,也是建立一个稳定、公平竞争和健康发展石油市场的调控政策之一。
本论文建立了一个研究石油开发政策体系从微观迈向宏观世界的桥梁,希望此研究能为今后进一步的定量分析提供一种比较新颖的方法和研究基础。
From 2002, China's dependence on import oil is rising, and it is difficult to significantly increase domestic oil production, so oil industry faces many problems. It is needed that China's oil development policies are constantly adjusted in order to promote the rapid development of oil industry and transformation of energy structure. Therefore, researching oil development policy is of great strategic significance to improving the efficiency of developing domestic oil, the capacity of oil production and supply and enhancing oil security.
The thesis also used a quantitative analysis and system point of view to discuss oil development policy system in addition to the traditional macro-qualitative method. China's oil development policy system is studied on the basis of researching the theory of complex adaptive system and analyzing the mapping relations between China's oil development policy system and complex adaptive system.Then a model of oil development is established using simulation platform Swarm of complex adaptive system to simulate the behavior and rules of different agents and the main effect of oil development policy. It are analyzed and studied how the government's macro-control changes the micro behavior and rules and according to observing the changes of the microscopic behavior under different types of oil development policy. It are explored how the government's macro-control causes the changes of agents' micro behavior or rules and how the individual micro-behavior or rules cause the whole macro emergence phenomena and the ties between the micro behavior or rules and the macro phenomena or the law. All these provide a frame of reference for the oil industry making reasonable oil development policy.
The analysis of different experimental results showed that the change of government resources tax have large influence on manufacturers’activation of developing oil, thereby affecting the business of dealers and petrochemical companies;And value-added tax have larger influence on manufacturers’activation of developing oil, thereby affecting the business of dealers and petrochemical companies;And tax impacts largely dealers and petrochemical companies in the market participation, and relatively smaller impact on manufacturers.This distribute to the dealers and petrochemical companies’"anti-competitive" weaker capacity compared with the manufacturers’.Increasing the number of petrochemical companies and oil supply or reserves is a certain regulatory role for oil prices rising too fast, and the micro profits of the petrochemical company can be seen at the same time. Therefore, it is an effective method to ensure relative balance of oil supply and demand, to control rapid rise in oil prices and one of regulation policies establish a stable, fair competition and healthy developing oil market that and the government appropriately relaxes "access" provisions for dealers and petrochemical companies, let them participate in the market more, and treats different business regulatory policies according to the nature of the different implementation in oil industry.
This thesis has established a bridge to study the system of oil development from the micro into the macro world. Wish this research provide a relatively new method and research base for further quantitative analysis in future.
引文
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